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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go Fred throwing in.

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Speaker 3: So we're saying it's a cash touchdown that we.

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Speaker 4: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 4: to Wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 4: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: It is the ultimate combini.

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Speaker 3: If you want to pack.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen. Today's episode NFL Conference Championship

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Speaker 4: Best Bets. We've got two games coming your way on Sunday,

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Speaker 4: San Francisco and Philadelphia, the afternoon game followed by the

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Speaker 4: AFC title game in Kansas City featuring the Chiefs and

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Speaker 4: the Bengals. Our usual crew is here, Brandon Anderson and

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Speaker 4: Luke swayn Aka Vegas. Refund is a quick reminder of

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Speaker 4: subscription to Action Pro is how you get the most

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Speaker 4: out of Actions Award winning app, and right now, Action

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Speaker 4: is offering a Pro subscription at forty percent off. This

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Speaker 4: is only being offered during the NFL playoffs, so if

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Speaker 4: you don't already have Pro, now is the best time

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Speaker 4: to subscribe and unlock all of the best features over

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Speaker 4: on the Action app. Before we jump into the picks,

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Speaker 4: we've got to hear from Action Networks director of Research

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Speaker 4: Evan Abrams for some of his favorite trends and stats

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Speaker 4: this week.

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Speaker 1: Evan take it away.

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Speaker 3: Thanks guys. Time for the Super Bowl appetizer conference title

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Speaker 3: not only the two games on Sunday, but the Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl opening line too. Okay, so let's start with initial

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Speaker 3: reactions to both championship games. The first reaction tight spreads

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Speaker 3: and tight markets. Both the conference championship games haven't closed

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Speaker 3: under a three point spread since nineteen ninety eight, and

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Speaker 3: it's only happened now three times overall in the Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl era. Finally, with the Bills losing last week, both

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Speaker 3: Buffalo and the Buccaneers are out before championship weekend. It

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Speaker 3: is the first time since twenty ten no team below

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Speaker 3: ten to one odds to win it all in the

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Speaker 3: preseason didn't make conference title weekend. Before we start, let's

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Speaker 3: take a look at a little bit of gambling history.

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Speaker 3: Favorites tend to excel in the conference championship, going twenty

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Speaker 3: six and twelve straight up and a mediocre twenty and

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Speaker 3: eighteen against the spread in the last twenty years, favorites

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Speaker 3: in all other rounds are seventy eight, one oh two

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Speaker 3: and four against the spread. Overall, it's been profitable to

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Speaker 3: fade number one seeds in the divisional round. One seeds

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Speaker 3: are thirty five percent against the spread over the last

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Speaker 3: twenty years. When those teams are favored by less than

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Speaker 3: ten points, they are twenty eight percent. Before we build

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Speaker 3: the brock Purty statue, let's see how Philly goes this weekend.

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Speaker 3: Party will be the fifth rookie quarterback to start a

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Speaker 3: conference championship game. Yes, yes, the tenth time you've probably

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Speaker 3: heard this stat this week. The interesting note, overall, rookie

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks twenty four and nine against the spread this season.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk Kyle Shanahan for a second. The comeback crusader himself.

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Speaker 3: Shanahan is the third most profitable coach against the spread

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Speaker 3: in the playoffs over the last twenty years. At seven

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Speaker 3: and one. He's dominated good defenses forty and sixteen against

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Speaker 3: the spread seventy one percent versus teams to allow under

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Speaker 3: twenty four points per game. All right, Eagles time. Now,

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Speaker 3: let's start with Jalen Hurts. So Hertz has performed much

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Speaker 3: better at home versus on the road against the spread.

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Speaker 3: In his career at home, he's twelve five and one

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Speaker 3: against the spread, including nine and three ats at home

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Speaker 3: as either an underdog or a favor of seven points

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Speaker 3: or less. He is under five hundred against a spread

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Speaker 3: on the road in each of his three seasons in

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Speaker 3: the NFL. But if you focus on just Hurts when

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Speaker 3: he's a favorite, the Eagles are twenty and four straight

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Speaker 3: up in those games. Bengals Chiefs. All right, I'll open

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Speaker 3: up the conversation with a little referee trend on Ron Torbert,

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Speaker 3: who was the head official for Cincinnati Kansas City this weekend.

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Speaker 3: Over the last three seasons, Torbert referee games are thirty

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Speaker 3: three sixteen to one sixty seven percent to the under,

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Speaker 3: including nine to seven this season. One hundred dollars better

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Speaker 3: would be up fifteen hundred dollars betting the under in

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Speaker 3: torberd games. Now, this is all against the closing line,

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Speaker 3: but as we know, the total has dropped four to

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Speaker 3: five points at some shops for Bengals Chiefs this week. Historically,

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow has acceled versus good teams, specifically teams above

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Speaker 3: five hundred straight up, but Joe's rookie year, he went

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Speaker 3: one in four straight up versus quote unquote good teams.

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Speaker 3: Over the last two seasons, he's fifteen and three straight up,

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Speaker 3: including seven and zeros straight up on the road. Just

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Speaker 3: a little perspective on that fifteen and three mark the

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Speaker 3: rest of the NFL over the last two seasons straight

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Speaker 3: up versus good teams forty two point five percent, and

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Speaker 3: just for a little bit of fun. In the NFL

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Speaker 3: and LSU combined, Burrow is thirty one and ten straight up,

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Speaker 3: thirty and eleven against the spread versus above five hundred

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Speaker 3: straight up opponents. Bengals Chiefs this weekend has some historical

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Speaker 3: significance in the Super Bowl era. This will be the

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Speaker 3: seventh time two franchises will meet in at least two

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Speaker 3: straight years in the conference championship, and the first since

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Speaker 3: the Ravens and Patriots in two eleven and twenty twelve.

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Speaker 3: What's interesting is the four times the team in the

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Speaker 3: first meeting won as the underdog, which was the Bengals,

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Speaker 3: and closed as the favorite in the second meeting, which

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Speaker 3: is also likely to be the Bengals. Those teams all

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Speaker 3: won out right. The Kansas City Chiefs were favorites to

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Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs this year, the

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Speaker 3: favorite entering the playoffs hasn't won the Super Bowl since

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Speaker 3: twenty sixteen, and only twice has it happened since two

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Speaker 3: thousand and five. The Chiefs are two and eleven against

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Speaker 3: the spread in conference games this season. The worst mark

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Speaker 3: in the NFL Kansas City is actually two to twelve

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Speaker 3: ats in the last fourteen games versus the AFC. All right,

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Speaker 3: guys and gallos, that is it for Conference Championship week

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Speaker 3: We will be back for the Super Bowl with Nuggets informations.

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Speaker 3: You know, all sorts of different fun stuff leading up

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Speaker 3: to the big game, including some prop stuff. So enjoy,

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Speaker 3: have fun with the game games, let's cash them tickets.

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Speaker 4: Okay, thank you Evan as always great stuff. Now let's

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Speaker 4: jump in just a couple of tidbits. You may have

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Speaker 4: heard some of this in Evans' notes, but to hammer

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Speaker 4: some of these home favorites historically excel in this round.

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Speaker 4: In conference Championship weekend favorites go twenty six and twelve

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Speaker 4: straight up twenty to eighteen against the number in the

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Speaker 4: last twenty years. Favorites in all other rounds are hitting it.

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Speaker 4: Just forty two percent against the spread. Playoff underdogs all

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Speaker 4: together since twenty seventeen are covering it a sixty one percent.

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Speaker 4: Clip and home team, so in this case Philly Kansas

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Speaker 4: City home teams in the conference championship game since twenty

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Speaker 4: eleven thirteen and six straight up, nine and ten against

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Speaker 4: the spread. You can find our picks over in the

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Speaker 4: Action app by searching Action Network NFL picks. Just follow

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Speaker 4: the account. There you get the Sunday six pack as well. Okay,

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Speaker 4: housekeeping's over, Brandon Anderson, start us off your first pick

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Speaker 4: of three for the coming weekend.

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Speaker 5: It out in the NFC, and I'm going to take

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Speaker 5: that Eagles forty nine ers under. That was the bet

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Speaker 5: that we talked about on our Sunday night recap for Monday.

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Speaker 5: That was my favorite then, and I was wrong. I

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Speaker 5: thought the line might actually drop this week. It's gone

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Speaker 5: the other way. If you waited, I said, I wasn't

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Speaker 5: really rushing to the counter to get bets. And we're

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Speaker 5: a point higher now, So I'll take the under forty

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Speaker 5: six and a half rather than the forty five and

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Speaker 5: a half. Cap is mostly the same. I think both

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Speaker 5: of these teams are going to struggle to score this week.

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Speaker 5: I think points will be at a premium, very much

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Speaker 5: like they were in that Niners Cowboys game we saw

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Speaker 5: last week. Both of these teams, as good as they've looked,

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Speaker 5: have not really had a ton of testing or proving

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Speaker 5: ground so far this year. Eagles only five games against

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Speaker 5: a top twelve defense. They've scored only twenty three points

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Speaker 5: a game in those when they've had a healthy outing.

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Speaker 5: Niners only four games like that, and they're under twenty

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Speaker 5: points a game in those outings. So that's not a

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Speaker 5: lot of chances to prove it. And we know both

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Speaker 5: these defenses are really good. I don't love the matchup

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Speaker 5: how this for either offense.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 5: Eagles we know are going to be a run heavy team.

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Speaker 5: They're number one in a rushing but the Niners great

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Speaker 5: run defense. And no we devalue the linebackers, but I

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Speaker 5: think this is a game where the Niners linebackers really

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Speaker 5: make a difference. Fred Warner, Dray Greenlaw. I think you

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Speaker 5: know Demiko Ryans, he's a linebacker, that's the defensive coordinator,

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Speaker 5: that's his background. He's going to have that team ready

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Speaker 5: for this kind of somewhat gimmicky Eagles offense that I

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Speaker 5: think is an offense that if you have more time

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Speaker 5: to prep for and more talent against, I'm not so

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Speaker 5: sure that they are going to put up a big number.

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Speaker 5: On the other side, we talked about Brack Purdy. He

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Speaker 5: hasn't faced a lot of great pass defense. He's averaged

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Speaker 5: number twenty two DVA pass defense that he's faced so far. Well,

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Speaker 5: last week we saw Dallas, Oh Where'd the points go?

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Speaker 5: Dallas was a really good defense. The Niners struggled in

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Speaker 5: with the ball. The Eagles are the number one pass defense,

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Speaker 5: number one pass pressure team, so I think we're going

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Speaker 5: to see the Niners are going to have to run.

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Speaker 5: We're gonna have some chances there, but we got McCaffrey

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Speaker 5: banged up. The Eagles are gonna have to pass, and

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Speaker 5: we've seen Jalen Hurts's numbers kind of slowly fall as

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Speaker 5: the year went on. So I just think that points

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Speaker 5: are gonna be tough to come by here. The Niners

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Speaker 5: have also been a really turnover dependent In their thirteen wins,

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Speaker 5: they've forced thirty one, but in their four losses only

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Speaker 5: three force turnovers. The Eagles have only had four or

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Speaker 5: four games all year with more than one turnover. So

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Speaker 5: again with the Cowboys, even when the Niners did score,

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Speaker 5: it was off and off of those turnovers when they

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Speaker 5: got a shorter field there. So I just think we're

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Speaker 5: gonna have a grinded out like an old classic defense

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Speaker 5: crazy battle. The Niners are the second slowest team in

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Speaker 5: the league. The Eagles are twenty seventh in pace in

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Speaker 5: the second half. Those injury question marks Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey,

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Speaker 5: Elane Johnson, these guys are all gonna play, but they

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Speaker 5: can really only play worse if they're hurt, so that

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Speaker 5: can only help the under. To me, I like the

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Speaker 5: under here under forty six and a half and a

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Speaker 5: little twist here because I love this under better than

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Speaker 5: anything else. At FanDuel or sponsor, you can play the

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Speaker 5: highest scoring team, and I'm using that to play my

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Speaker 5: Bengals or Chiefs bat in the other game, since I

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Speaker 5: think both these teams go under both the other two teams.

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Speaker 5: You can play Bengals plus two sixty or Chiefs plus

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Speaker 5: two forty effectively as my money line pick in the

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Speaker 5: other game. So that's kind of my setup for that

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Speaker 5: second game. But this pick is under forty six and

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Speaker 5: a half.

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Speaker 4: Minimal factor, but there will be some wind as well

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Speaker 4: in Philly on Sunday, So who knows how that affects

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Speaker 4: brock Perdy being a rookie quarterback in the spot a

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Speaker 4: rookie quarterback has never won in a conference title game.

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Speaker 4: And as you mentioned, a run, run heavy Philadelphia team

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Speaker 4: can certainly air it out but hasn't needed to to

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Speaker 4: this point in the postseason. And you hit on some injuries.

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Speaker 4: We're coming to you on a record here. On Thursday,

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Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan said, no McCaffrey, no Elijah Mitchell. They did

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Speaker 4: not practice again, Deebo Samuel limit in practice for the

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Speaker 4: forty nine ers. Let's go to Luke your first pick

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Speaker 4: for us, please.

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Speaker 7: So first off, I kind of just want to preface

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Speaker 7: with this is the conference championship rown, like all these

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Speaker 7: are the cream of the crop teams, Like there's no

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Speaker 7: wrong argument for either side. So the Niners seem like

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Speaker 7: that the contray in side right now, where I haven't

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Speaker 7: heard a lot of love for them, but like any argument.

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Speaker 2: For them is true.

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Speaker 7: Where we've had twenty twenty one weeks of games at

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Speaker 7: this point, like these are gonna be the sharpest numbers

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Speaker 7: we see this Niners number, I think opened at two

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Speaker 7: and a half and it's still two and a half.

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Speaker 7: The movement on the Bengals game, like that's totally just

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Speaker 7: Mahomes of course, where it is rare to see any

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Speaker 7: movement whatsoever. Where these numbers are going to be the

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Speaker 7: sharpest probably in sports all yeah, for anything. So just

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Speaker 7: know a lot of what I just stated, most of

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Speaker 7: you listeners already know, but there's really very little edge

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Speaker 7: and you're really just playing your opinion, which is going

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Speaker 7: to lead me to Eagles laying two and a half

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Speaker 7: at home against the Niners, which.

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Speaker 2: Last week I took the Cowboys.

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Speaker 7: That was somewhat of a painful loss, but like all

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Speaker 7: of the points held true where this was a step

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Speaker 7: up in class against brock Party in terms of defenses

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Speaker 7: that he's faced against an elite pass rush, where you

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Speaker 7: could see those points coming true. He was rattled that

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Speaker 7: pass rush was getting in his face and really playing

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Speaker 7: the Brandon's under Like I don't see this Niners' offense

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Speaker 7: being able to have any more success this week against

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Speaker 7: an even harder opponent in terms of defense, where the

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Speaker 7: Eagles pass rush it's the best in the league against

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Speaker 7: this elite secondary, where like every point that we played

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Speaker 7: against the Niners last week is holding true against them

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Speaker 7: again this week, where like you can't if I'm picking

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Speaker 7: between Jalen Hurts and Brock Party. I mean, you got

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Speaker 7: a rookie quarterback in the conference championship going ag ast an.

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Speaker 2: Elite pass rush.

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Speaker 7: I just there's very few and probably the most hostile

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Speaker 7: environment in the entire league, maybe outside of Buffalo, which

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Speaker 7: didn't do much last week, but Eagles minus two and

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Speaker 7: a half. All of the variables from the Cowboys hold

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Speaker 7: true to an upgrade of defense in the Eagles. And

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Speaker 7: then you have a rookie quarterback in a conference championship

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Speaker 7: game in a hostile environment, this one like, yeah, this

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Speaker 7: one was the first one I looked at. I don't

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Speaker 7: think it's going to move, if anything, unless one of

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Speaker 7: those key guys that Brandon mentioned is out, which I

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Speaker 7: would be shocked if he would.

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Speaker 1: Tend to agree.

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Speaker 4: Tend to agree. This is the fifth time as I

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Speaker 4: mentioned rookie quarterbacks in the conference title game. Oh to

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Speaker 4: four in this spot, Mark Sanchez and nine, Joe Flaco

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Speaker 4: two thousand and eight, Big Ben in two thousand and four.

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Speaker 1: Those three circumstances.

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Speaker 4: Those three particular spots they lost by double digits or

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Speaker 4: part of be lost by more than a score. Sean

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Speaker 4: King lost eleven six back in nineteen ninety nine. Joe

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Speaker 4: Gallant is a host for the Touchdown Show, and as

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Speaker 4: he's been doing these NFL playoffs, he's going to the

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Speaker 4: touchdown market for the first game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Absolutely, And I'm going to do that again this week

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Speaker 8: for the NFC Championship game. And I'm looking on the

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Speaker 8: Eagles side and I'm going to take Davante Smith to

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Speaker 8: score a touchdown at plus one ninety and DeVante he

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Speaker 8: scored last week against the Giants. Now, we talked about

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Speaker 8: this when we were betting receiving yard props and even

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Speaker 8: just in general, but he's just getting a ton of

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Speaker 8: work in targets. He's gotten eight or more targets now

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Speaker 8: in ten straight games, with six touchdowns in that stretch.

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Speaker 8: And the Niners defense, the one thing I would just

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Speaker 8: say about them is I think they're strong, but I

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Speaker 8: think they could be thrown on. Like they've given up

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Speaker 8: sixteen touchdowns to wide receivers this year, but they were

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Speaker 8: also bottom five and passing yards allowed to the position.

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Speaker 8: And as discussed on Thursday's edition of The Green Dot

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Speaker 8: Daily by our friend of the podcast, Nick Giffen. The

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Speaker 8: forty nine ers have given up a pass of twenty

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Speaker 8: five yards or more in a eleven straight games. We've

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Speaker 8: seen them, seen DK Metcalf have success against them. Davonte Adams,

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Speaker 8: now these are wide receiver ones, but I'm more high

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Speaker 8: on Davante Smith than AJ Brown specifically in this matchup,

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Speaker 8: because he is a little bit banged up. He did

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Speaker 8: get we have seen him get phased out, whereas I

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Speaker 8: feel like Hurts still will go to Davante in those

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Speaker 8: crucial spots, especially on third down. We saw Ceedee Lamb

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Speaker 8: have a forty six yard catch against them last week.

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Speaker 8: Should have probably scored a touchdown. Ten catches one hundred

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Speaker 8: and seventeen yards. I love Devonte Smith in this matchup.

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Speaker 8: I think he's scoring at least one touchdown on this defense.

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Speaker 4: Luke, you have a follow up thought on this one,

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Speaker 4: because I know you were on Smith last week and

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Speaker 4: that was a painful beat for you, but just how

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Speaker 4: the game script might look for Smith, and that was

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Speaker 4: not me being sarcastic to make fun of that you

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Speaker 4: pick didn't hit.

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Speaker 1: I was like no, it felt like you love.

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Speaker 7: I would love to have a therapy session on that hit,

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Speaker 7: that not winning where he had watched sixty yards at

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Speaker 7: half he needed ten to go over look what I do,

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Speaker 7: which like, yeah, look what you did where he needs

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Speaker 7: to ten and at half it's like, this is one

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Speaker 7: of those scenarios are killing. I was like, it's definitely

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Speaker 7: not gonna hit and then first play he drops a

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Speaker 7: ten yard pass and then he.

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Speaker 2: Has a twelve yard pass called back.

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Speaker 7: On a penalty. I love Davante. He's an alpha. My

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Speaker 7: next pick is actually gonna be similar situation, different player.

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Speaker 7: But yeah, I mean like Davante is the hottest receiver

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Speaker 7: in league right now, week to week. Jalen's healthy. Yeah,

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Speaker 7: I'm gonna have points that support this.

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Speaker 4: Next Okay, well, we don't get to have you on

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Speaker 4: the recap show, so I figured we'd get that to air.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're ling me up good?

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Speaker 4: I like five for sure on the pod, Yes for sure.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to round two. Brandon, you're up.

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Speaker 5: What can I do but go back to DeVante Smith

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Speaker 5: there After all that, I gotta have some DeVante Smith

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Speaker 5: FaceTime here, Like I got a bunch of pops are

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Speaker 5: gonna be in my article this week. I'm looking for

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Speaker 5: a Joe Burrow rushing attempts, no line yet for that one.

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Speaker 5: I like Chris mccaff for receiving yards, but the injury

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Speaker 5: status gotta wait on that one. I gotta get Luke's

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Speaker 5: money back from last week. I'm going right back to

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Speaker 5: the exact same bet that he made gave me the

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Speaker 5: Davante Smith receiving yards over sixty five and a half.

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Speaker 5: So you've heard the case from both of them already.

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Speaker 5: I'll add to it. The way that Smith is being

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Speaker 5: used has really grown a lot over the last two months.

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Speaker 5: So numbers from the first eleven games till the seven

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Speaker 5: most recent games really huge splits.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 5: First eleven games, Davante Smith five catches fifty five yards

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Speaker 5: a game, about seven targets a game. Since then, the

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Speaker 5: last seven games that's gone up to six and a

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Speaker 5: half catches ninety three yards, so a huge jump from

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Speaker 5: fifty five to ninety three and almost ten targets a game.

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Speaker 5: And it's not just a volume thing here, it's how

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Speaker 5: they're using them. The yards per catch from under eleven

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Speaker 5: to almost fifteen yards per catch. They're getting him down

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Speaker 5: the field. They using him in the red zone five

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Speaker 5: touchdowns the last seven game, So I like Joe's touchdown

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Speaker 5: bet here as well. And he's playing nearly every snap

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Speaker 5: right now. He's a good blocker, so he stays on

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Speaker 5: for run plays. He's versatile, he plays in a slot,

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Speaker 5: he can play outside. That's something that we saw from

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Speaker 5: him when he won the Heisman. Obviously we knew this

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Speaker 5: guy was good. He just was too skinny apparently for

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Speaker 5: anyone to draft him. But in that seven game stretch,

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Speaker 5: we're talking about sixty one yards are better every game,

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Speaker 5: so we're at a floor of sixty one. We only

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Speaker 5: need sixty six to hit our bet. Now, sorry, Luke,

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Speaker 5: we didn't get the last couple of yards last week.

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Speaker 5: But to me, you watch that game, that's a good bet.

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Speaker 5: That was the right bet. We made the right side.

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Speaker 5: We're going back to the well again. This is a

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Speaker 5: DeVante game here we talked to earlier. I think the

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Speaker 5: Egals are going to have to pass in this game.

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Speaker 5: They're not going to be able to just run on

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Speaker 5: this team. And by Dvoa, the Niners are elite defending

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Speaker 5: pass catching running backs and they're elite against wide receiver ones.

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Speaker 5: By receiving yards and catches the great against other receivers.

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Speaker 5: We've seen all the receivers beat them. A lot of

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Speaker 5: those yards Jill talked about have been to not the

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Speaker 5: first guy. Well, the Eagles kind of have two wide

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Speaker 5: receiver ones and that's where I think DeVante can feast

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Speaker 5: in this game. I project him at about six catches

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Speaker 5: ninety yards. I think he does have a better than

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Speaker 5: fifty to fifty chance to a touchdown. At FanDuel, you

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Speaker 5: can play that combo six catches, ninety yards and a touchdown.

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Speaker 5: That's a plus six seventy. So you know how I

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Speaker 5: like my escalator. I'm probably gonna play that one a

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Speaker 5: little bit. You can play DeVante plus two to seventy

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Speaker 5: to lead this game in receiving yards. I think if

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Speaker 5: he does the numbers we're talking about, he'll have a

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Speaker 5: good shot at that as well. And Luke and I

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Speaker 5: talked about this a little bit last week. You can

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Speaker 5: still get plus forty five hundred Super Bowl MVP out there,

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Speaker 5: So I'm in on DeVante Smith. Luke said he is

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Speaker 5: the hottest guy in football catching passes right now. I think

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Speaker 5: it's a great time to keep playing him and drug

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Speaker 5: off the bad beat. We're gonna get Luke's money back

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Speaker 5: and make a little extra this week.

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Speaker 1: So I am now fascinated by Luke's pick.

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Speaker 4: He sort of adhered to it at moll going to

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Speaker 4: go and how the DeVante Smith, the other receiver you're

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Speaker 4: going to talk about, how could these could these picks

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Speaker 4: conflict if you're going to go to a J.

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Speaker 1: Brown?

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Speaker 2: So I don't know.

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Speaker 7: I didn't think it was out of spite, but I'm

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Speaker 7: going to go with AJ Brown over seventy and a

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Speaker 7: half years receive it, which this is like, this is

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Speaker 7: exactory where like you you lose, you should like, don't

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Speaker 7: get off the bandwagon hit it again, which I'm literally

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Speaker 7: jumping on to the other side of this receiving corpse.

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Speaker 7: But the reason I'm on this and at the same time,

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Speaker 7: I do like Jalen Hurts over passing attempts as well

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Speaker 7: for a lot of these reasons, which I'm going to

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Speaker 7: go with AJ of course, but like the Niners rank

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Speaker 7: tenth in terms of overpass passing expectation in neutral gamescript,

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Speaker 7: which the best rundy that the Eagles have faced this

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Speaker 7: year was the Titans, and it hurts through for thirty

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Speaker 7: nine through thirty nine times, excuse me. So we do

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Speaker 7: expect and I think it's a consensus that we're going

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Speaker 7: to be expecting the Eagles to throw it a lot

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Speaker 7: more relative to what their season average has been. And

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Speaker 7: AJ Brown he is in alpha, Davante's an alpha. I don't

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Speaker 7: know the exact number, but there are plenty of games

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Speaker 7: enough to make me comfortable with both of these guys

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Speaker 7: over where. I think there's like two or three games

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Speaker 7: where both of these guys have gone over one hundred

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Speaker 7: in the same game, which AJ Brown was complaining in game.

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Speaker 2: He just had a quote.

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Speaker 7: I'm not going to read it word for word, but

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Speaker 7: he basically said, I'm a dominant receiver. I want the

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Speaker 7: ball if you throw it to me one hundred times,

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Speaker 7: I wanted one hundred and one times, which he said

436
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 7: that in his press conference. And I always love taking

437
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 7: those tidbits and press conferences where like this is a

438
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 7: conference championship game, like they're not going to tailor their

439
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 7: game plan over making like player A XYZ happy, But

440
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 7: at the same time, like I can't get past like

441
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 7: this is AJ Brown. It's going to be in the

442
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 7: back of jail in Hirs's mind, Davante is the guy

443
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 7: that's been getting all the love, and I do feel like,

444
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 7: and I totally agree with your pick on the over,

445
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 7: but I do feel like like last week this opened

446
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 7: at sixty.

447
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: It's creeping up.

448
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 7: At the same time, it's like being three yards off

449
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 7: of AJ Brown where probably in the regular season they

450
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 7: were ten yards apart, where we had seventy or sixty.

451
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 7: This just feels like, I don't want to say by low,

452
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 7: but Davonte's getting all the love and AJ can hit

453
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 7: this in one play easy he's had he's gone over.

454
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 7: I want to say five of the last six games,

455
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 7: last two games he was just shy of one hundred.

456
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 2: Yards with four catches, which he gets five to six.

457
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 7: Is going to fly over against the Titans last year,

458
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 7: which when he was on, not when he was on

459
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 7: the Titans. Against the Niners, excuse me, he went eleven

460
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:47,479
Speaker 7: for one hundred and forty five. This is which Titans

461
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 7: were run first, very similar defense pass funnel. Give me

462
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 7: a J.

463
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 2: Brown.

464
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 1: Oh, and you're glad you brought up the Titans game.

465
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,879
Speaker 4: They met week thirteen, and both receivers Brown and Smith

466
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 4: went over one hundred yards in that game. And that

467
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 4: was of course a motivation spot for Brown playing against

468
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 4: his old opponent, and Brandon, that's why I would be

469
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 4: I'm a little.

470
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: My only, but go ahead.

471
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 7: What I was well, yes, what you just said is

472
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 7: one hundred percent what I was speaking to. But I

473
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 7: was also speaking to when Adrian Brown was on the

474
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 7: Titans and they faced the Niners last year, he went

475
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 7: for eleven and forty five, which was a past funnel

476
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 7: game as well.

477
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: So both hold through.

478
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 4: Okay, cool, So two different points, but I got you now, Brandon.

479
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,479
Speaker 4: My only concern for you're under would be that if

480
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 4: there is a unit I'd be nervous about, is that

481
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 4: San Fran can't get beat deep, which is what you're

482
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 4: sort of arguing for Smith and what Luke could argue

483
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 4: for aj Brown.

484
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, but you know, I think that's why I personally,

485
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 5: I feel better about yardage here than touchdowns. I know

486
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 5: Jill's got the touchdown pick as well, but you know,

487
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 5: forty six and a half weis squeeze a touchdown and thereat.

488
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 2: For all three of us.

489
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's where you hope that you know,

490
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 5: hopefully they move the ball, but maybe they stall in

491
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 5: the red zone and maybe you know, you get some

492
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 5: chances to get the ball down the field like Luke

493
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 5: had on the stat where the twenty five yard plus pass.

494
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 5: I try to get creative four whiles looking for like

495
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 5: Qus Watkins, the longest catcher, that sort of thing. But

496
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 5: weird snap counts, hard to know who else is going

497
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 5: to be out there. But I think you can get

498
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 5: some yardage, get down the field and still be able

499
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 5: to get under forty six and a half. I really

500
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 5: thought my numbers have it significantly lower than that, so

501
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 5: it's really a bunch higher than I thought. My question

502
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 5: for Luke is, so, if you're a listener here and

503
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 5: you just heard I made the case for DeVante Smith

504
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 5: over receiving yards, you made the case for aj Brown

505
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 5: over receiving yards. I think they're both good cases. Like

506
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,640
Speaker 5: you said, it's all sharp here. If I'm listening, can

507
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 5: I play both of those? Or do I need to

508
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 5: pick which one do I like better? So I'm not

509
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,360
Speaker 5: playing two receivers over? What would you do here here?

510
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: Good good host question by Brandon. Very well done, Go ahead, Luke,

511
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 1: I think you can.

512
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 7: I wish I had the exact number about how many

513
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,199
Speaker 7: games they've both gone over where like this game is like,

514
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 7: I really believe that Hurts is going to be throwing

515
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 7: way above expectation, which leaves room for both of them

516
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 7: to hit. In my you're you're the math fazant with

517
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 7: like ev et cetera. Where if you just took both

518
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 7: of them one hundred yards alts like they're probably plus

519
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 7: two hundred one of them heads, which I believe one

520
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 7: of them will hit.

521
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 2: You're covered.

522
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's interesting. I agree. I think you

523
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 5: can play both of these. I think that the yardage

524
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 5: is out there for both of them. Uh Aj Brown

525
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 5: really has been putting up lots of like nineties and

526
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 5: hundreds and into the triple digits. But maybe the way

527
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 5: to do it, like you said, is if you do

528
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 5: feel like I agree, I'm on looking at Hurts attempts

529
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 5: overs just lots of passing here because don't think they're

530
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 5: gonna be able to run as much. And I think

531
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 5: if you like that angle, maybe you don't just take

532
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 5: the two traditional overs like we're talking about. Maybe do it.

533
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 5: Luke said, maybe skip the traditionals and just play both

534
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 5: of them at one hundred plus or for the hide

535
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 5: number and hope that you get one of them to

536
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 5: hit You're probably not going to get both of those,

537
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,199
Speaker 5: but you get the higher payout kind of covers the

538
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 5: fact that one of your bets might end up losing

539
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 5: a little bet. So I think you got some options.

540
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 5: You gonna be creative. We have the same game parlay.

541
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 5: If you like Jill and my bet for both DeVante Smith,

542
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 5: you can get creative that way. So I think you

543
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:18,959
Speaker 5: can play around with up.

544
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 8: I was just going to make sure that for the

545
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 8: end of the regular season, of the final six games,

546
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 8: so the regular season excluding Week eighteen, they both topped

547
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 8: this number, the sixty five and the seventy. They both

548
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 8: topped those numbers in five of the last six games

549
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 8: to end the regular season.

550
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 7: Yeah, and Titans best rush defense they face like our

551
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 7: reference which is like Jalen Hurst through a thirty nine

552
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 7: times that game, which he averages I believe thirty one.

553
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 7: So it was over expectation and aj Brown and Davante

554
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 7: both went over one hundred. Both of them went over

555
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 7: We had eight receptions five receptions and they I mean

556
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 7: they're both getting eight plus targets in in a game

557
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 7: that is above expectation, Like they can both get this

558
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 7: pretty easily.

559
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 4: The Titans game this year. The other one was the

560
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,880
Speaker 4: Gardner Minshew start at Dallas. They both reached one hundred yards,

561
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,120
Speaker 4: receding in that game as well. So it doesn't matter

562
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 4: who the quarterback is too to a degree, just referencing

563
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 4: what happened down the stretch, because that's something to think

564
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 4: about too. Right down the stretch, you got a factory. Well,

565
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 4: Hurts wasn't the quarterback, right, So okay, Jill, what you

566
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 4: got for your second pick? Going back to the anytime

567
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 4: touchdown market?

568
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, I'm going to stick with the NFC Championship game,

569
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 8: but I'm going to take my favorite forty nine er

570
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 8: bet in this game, and it's going to be George Kittle.

571
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 8: It's the best value on the board right now for

572
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 8: the Niners, mainly because of what we just kind of

573
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 8: talked about what this Niners defense is all about, and

574
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 8: or part of me the Eagles defense rather, how they're

575
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 8: a funnel defense, how they are strong versus wide receivers

576
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 8: but weaker over the middle. So in eight games with

577
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 8: Brock Purty a quarterback, he's got seven touchdowns. Even last

578
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 8: week against the Cowboys and below points were at a premium.

579
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 8: He was the main receiving option for the four nine

580
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 8: ers five catches ninety five yards. We know that he

581
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 8: has decent hands because he can still catch a ball

582
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 8: that bounces off his face and still make it happen.

583
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 8: And one of the reasons why I'm looking more at

584
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 8: Kittle as opposed to a Brandon Ayuk or Juwan Jennings

585
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 8: isn't necessarily because of the odds, but it's because of

586
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 8: the Eagles defense. They were actually first in the NFL

587
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 8: and explosive plays allowed to wide receivers this season, so

588
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 8: the value just hasn't been there for a Brandon Ayu click.

589
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 8: Whereas I liked Brandon Ayuk last week against the Cowboys,

590
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 8: I don't necessarily like him in this matchup. So Kittle

591
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 8: to me, is the best value on the board for

592
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 8: the forty nine ers. That's where they can the Eagles

593
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 8: can get beat. So I like George Kittle if I'm

594
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 8: betting anybody for the forty nine ers, so George Kittle

595
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 8: is my second best bet.

596
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: Excellent.

597
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 4: Let's move on to the final round of picks. As

598
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 4: you might imagine, I think we're done with this game.

599
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 4: We're gonna go to the AFC title Game. Now for

600
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 4: our final round of picks, Brandon, what do you got.

601
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, let's go Bengals second half. So I'm gonna take

602
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 5: Bengals second. Gotta look around at the lines. Obviously, like

603
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 5: Luke mentioned, that line's been bouncing around, Chiefs open favorites,

604
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 5: Bengals got up to a couple points favor and now

605
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 5: we're back to Chiefs. Who knows by the time you listen,

606
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 5: So look around. My favorite line I'm seeing right now

607
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 5: is a plus a half just under even money there,

608
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 5: or you can just do the money line if you want. Basically,

609
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 5: if I'm getting anything plus money or the money line,

610
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 5: I think the Bengals win the second half. So here's

611
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 5: the case. Here's the stat that you know on this game,

612
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 5: that you've heard all week on this podcast and everywhere else.

613
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 5: Last thirty one Chiefs games, Chiefs are twenty six and

614
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 5: two against everyone but the Bengals, all in three against

615
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 5: the Bengals. So I look back at my notes from

616
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 5: all three of those games, and some of the common

617
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 5: themes listened out to me. Number One, Bengals receivers is winning,

618
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 5: winning one on one, beating those Chiefs corners, I sawa

619
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 5: Joe Burrow running. Like I mentioned those rushing attempts overs.

620
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 5: But the main thing you see in those games, you

621
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 5: see Chiefs early, you see Bengals late. That was consider

622
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 5: instantly the theme that happened. And I steal a lot

623
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 5: of big Lou lou Anarrimo adjustments throughout the game. And

624
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 5: you've heard me mention the stat over and over this

625
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 5: year Bengals second halves against the spread in the last

626
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 5: twenty seven games now including postseason twenty three and four

627
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 5: against the spread for the Bengals in the second half

628
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 5: alone eighty five percent cover rate. This matchup against the

629
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 5: Chiefs was what alerted me to that trend in the

630
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 5: first place, because it was such a stark split. I

631
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 5: believe the Chiefs have scored twenty points in the second

632
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 5: half of all three of these games combined against the Bengals.

633
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 5: So Lou on Arimo, he doesn't have the most talented defense.

634
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 5: You can't even name a lot of Bengals defenders, but

635
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 5: they're versatile. They have a different defense every week. I

636
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 5: hate to say it, but all lah Bill Belichick, they

637
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 5: come out with a new scheme, a new plan. Are

638
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 5: they going to drop eight, are they going to rush more?

639
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 5: Are they going to time it? Or are they going

640
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 5: to bring extra blitzers. I think that I like the

641
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 5: Bengals overall in this game. I think the offensive line

642
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 5: for the Chiefs doesn't quite hold up, and we don't

643
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 5: know how healthy Mahomes is, but we know he's not

644
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 5: one hundred percent. But it's possible that they come out

645
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 5: early and put up some points. I'm kind of hedging

646
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 5: against that possibility here by playing just the second half,

647
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 5: because if I'm Louannarrimo and I'm that Bengals defense, I

648
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 5: think they're going to learn. They're going to try some

649
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 5: stuff really and see, Okay, what works against Pat and

650
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 5: what doesn't, because everything's not going to work. He's still

651
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 5: Pat Mahomes. He's still going to do some stuff. But

652
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 5: I think they're going to try to figure out how

653
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 5: mobile is he, should we be blitzing, should we be dropping,

654
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 5: and then lock into what really works late in the game.

655
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 5: That's what they've done so well. So I like that

656
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 5: side of the ball on offense. I think the later

657
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 5: they gave goes, the more Burrow just gives his ball.

658
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 5: It gives the ball to his receivers, lets them make

659
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 5: the play. And I really like what we saw from

660
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 5: Cincy last week, that power running game that took over

661
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 5: against the Bills. We know about all the Bengals often

662
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 5: line injuries. Well, one of the best ways to protect

663
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 5: your line is run the ball. Just get off on

664
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 5: the snap and dominate in the run game. First four

665
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 5: weeks of the season, the Bengals were frustrating me. They

666
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 5: were frustrating us on a podcast. They looked like the

667
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 5: stuff we hated last year. Since Week four, the Bengals

668
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 5: are second in the NFL in rushing DVLA. The Chiefs

669
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,239
Speaker 5: are twenty second on running defense that same stretch. I

670
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 5: think the Chiefs could really struggle to stop the run here,

671
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 5: especially as the game goes on and the Bengals start

672
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 5: to tire them down a little bit. Kansas City has

673
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 5: only face two top ten rushing offenses all year. They

674
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 5: are thirtieth in DVLA defensively in those two games. This

675
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 5: is the toughest rushing attack they will face all year.

676
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 5: Joe Mixon and that rushing attack are actually efficient now,

677
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 5: so I looking at some mixing overs here. By the way,

678
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 5: I thought about making this my third bet here, but

679
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 5: there's not really good way to track this one. But

680
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 5: maybe my favorite bet of the weekend. Joe Mixon the

681
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 5: right now is plus two twenty five to finish the

682
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 5: postseason with the most rushing yard, So you can play

683
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 5: that at fan duel. I love that bet because I

684
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 5: think that he will be leading after this round. It's

685
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 5: basically him and McCaffrey right now. And if the Bengals win,

686
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 5: I think we're on lock. If the Bengals don't win,

687
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,399
Speaker 5: I think we still have a chance anything other than

688
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 5: a Chief's forty nine ers matchup. So I'll write about

689
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 5: that one a little bit more in the article if

690
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 5: you want some info, but basically, defense adjustments, late power

691
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 5: run game takes over. I just like the Bengals, and

692
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 5: I like the second half better. In case Mahomes does

693
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 5: get out to a quick start, I think he wears

694
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 5: down as the game goes on. You always have a

695
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 5: chance of another injury. Give me the Bengals second half

696
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 5: and I will wait and get my money later in

697
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 5: the game.

698
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 4: This time, so Chiefs just to kind of play through

699
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 4: the timeline here, Chiefs opened his favorites on Sunday and

700
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 4: then the money came in on Cincinnati.

701
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 1: They became favorites, and the Chiefs for a short underdog.

702
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,720
Speaker 4: It would have been just the second time in Patrick

703
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 4: maholl Holmes career to be a home dog. The other

704
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 4: case would have been Week six this season home against Buffalo.

705
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 4: Kansas City was an underdog in that game. But as

706
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 4: we know, we heard from Mahomes, we saw Mahomes on

707
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 4: the practice field, we saw him walk off the podium

708
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 4: without a limp. And now Patrick Mahomes is a favorite,

709
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 4: and this will be.

710
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 1: His seventeenth start.

711
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 4: In January or later, He's been favored in all seventeen

712
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:27,280
Speaker 4: games so leading into this seventeenth game, sixteen games, sample

713
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 4: size twelve and four straight up. And this would be

714
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 4: the case too, if indeed it flips back the other

715
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 4: way and the Bengals become favorites, this would be the

716
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 4: first time in Mahomes' career he opens as a favorite

717
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 4: then closes.

718
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: As a dog.

719
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 4: But as we know now, Chiefs minus one is the

720
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 4: current line.

721
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: Let's go to Luke.

722
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 7: So I think the line move on base off of

723
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 7: the Mahomes injury is fascinating so far where I think

724
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 7: they are when it opened at three, they priced in

725
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 7: the injury, which it is a lot easier to plan

726
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 7: an injury the day of than it is like a

727
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 7: day or later where this line was moving where it

728
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 7: got to Cincinnati a favorite, and at that point I

729
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 7: was honestly debating whether like Mahomes was even going to

730
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 7: be out where like they're at this point, like I said,

731
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 7: like these are the sharpest lines, like we have twenty

732
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 7: weeks of games to price these out where there isn't

733
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 7: anyone of market influence that can move this line of

734
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 7: Cincinnati minus one and a half unless Mahomes is out

735
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 7: or he is just insanely hampered where then he had

736
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 7: his press conference and the videos start coming out, which honestly,

737
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 7: and like everyone I watched like that press conference, walk

738
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:36,959
Speaker 7: through the door that lasted three seconds, probably a hundred

739
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 7: times trying to find a limp and I didn't. And

740
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 7: I'm tourt all is a hell of a drug, I

741
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 7: will say that, and whether he took it before the

742
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 7: press conference or what. But I'm just not sold on

743
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 7: him being healthy. And like the Jags game, which I

744
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 7: was on the Chiefs like and the chief should have

745
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 7: won by one hundred there it looks I just don't

746
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 7: see how he's gonna anywhere close to two hundred percent.

747
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 7: And it's not really the reason, and I went against

748
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,439
Speaker 7: the Bengals, and the market was against the Bengals again

749
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 7: last week, and they did it again, and I am

750
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 7: done with that, and I am siding with the team

751
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 7: of destiny. And there is this Bengals team that are

752
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 7: defying all odds and I am totally sold on them.

753
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 7: I've said that they're my only Super Bowl future. But

754
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 7: with the Mahomes injury, with this Bengals team humming, they

755
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 7: got the run game going. The one concern I do

756
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 7: have is the Bengals offensive line. Was the narrative last

757
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 7: week about the Bills taking advantage of it, and I

758
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 7: do think the snow is somewhat an equalizer, but it's

759
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 7: always the week after the narrative that these types of

760
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 7: things kick in. And Chris Jones is a bad dude,

761
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 7: and and that is like, that is the one concern.

762
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 7: But they were getting it out and we touched on

763
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,919
Speaker 7: how quick he's getting it out, and in the snow,

764
00:37:57,960 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 7: he was getting it out just as quick.

765
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 2: And they're three and zero.

766
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:02,839
Speaker 7: And I was on the Chiefs when they played him

767
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 7: earlier in the middle of the season.

768
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 2: I lost that and it's Bengals are nothing, and I'm

769
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 2: so happy.

770
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 7: We're recording this on Thursday, so there is nothing that

771
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 7: can get me to flip. Because I'm on this and

772
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 7: I believe in them. I would definitely wait right now.

773
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 7: Is Bengals plus one. I don't think it's more about

774
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 7: when you want to jump on them. I think the

775
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 7: more videos or news that comes out on Mahomes, it's

776
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,280
Speaker 7: going to gradually tick back up. So I'd wait till Sunday.

777
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,479
Speaker 7: And I mean first drive, We're going to now lots

778
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 7: of live opportunities to so Bengals plus one on Sunday.

779
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 1: Latest reporting.

780
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 4: As far as the Bengals O line, Alex Kappa went

781
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 4: to Bengals practice, he was in drills. He did not

782
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,240
Speaker 4: participate in the drills he observed, but no walking boot

783
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 4: on the left foot. And I think Jodah Williams is

784
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 4: also questionable. So those are two items. Two players that

785
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 4: do Brandon help the case for back into Bengals Two.

786
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, that offensive line definitely is a concern. But I

787
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 5: think I want to remind you with Patrick Mahomes, and

788
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 5: we know this, but we tend to not think of

789
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 5: it this way. Health is not binary. Just because we

790
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 5: see Patrick Mahomes practicing and everyone's like, oh okay, ah,

791
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 5: Mahomes is playing, We're good to go. Like that's not

792
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 5: how this works. We know that, like he's almost certainly

793
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 5: going to play. Everyone believes that. But what Mahomes do

794
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 5: we get? Are we getting ninety five percent or ninety

795
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 5: percent eighty sixty We don't know, And probably that percent

796
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,479
Speaker 5: slowly erodes as the game goes on, and it could

797
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 5: quickly erode on one bad play. It's always a risk

798
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 5: of re injury there, So I think, be careful if

799
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 5: you just see Mahomes not limping in a ten second clip,

800
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 5: or see him practicing, mistaking that for oh okay, Mahomes

801
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 5: is good to go now, Like those are not the

802
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 5: same thing. And I did not expect to be on

803
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 5: the Bengals here, especially in a possible Mahomes home underdog spot.

804
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 5: But like Luke kind of made the case, if I

805
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,359
Speaker 5: I just zoom away out here, I look at these

806
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 5: two teams. The Bengals have clearly the better running game.

807
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 5: They have clearly better receivers, They are clearly better run defense,

808
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 5: they're better pass pressure, they might be better at special

809
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 5: teams this year. I might trust their coaches more. Right now,

810
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 5: The one big equalizer is the MVP Patrick Mahomes, what

811
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 5: Joe Burrow is pretty good. And if Patrick Mahomes is

812
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 5: not one hundred percent, if he's ninety five or ninety

813
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 5: or eighty or whatever percent, Joe Burrow is not that

814
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 5: far behind. And if that suddenly is even close to

815
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 5: Evan or Burrows ahead, I think the Bengals might just

816
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 5: be better at almost everything here. So I like the

817
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 5: Bengals too. I just like the second half a little better.

818
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 5: But I think we're in lockstep on this one.

819
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, in the last one I just want to make

820
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 7: is there's gonna be There is an argument, and you've

821
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,359
Speaker 7: probably heard it already, that Chiefs is a one point

822
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 7: favorite at home. There is insane value there with Patrick

823
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:59,120
Speaker 7: Mahomes even playing in the game, which is not wrong. Like,

824
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 7: if Mahomes was health they'd probably be I mean they

825
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 7: were the Bengals were just five and a half point

826
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 7: underdogs at the Belts, where the Chiefs would probably be

827
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 7: six and a half point favorites. If Mahomes is healthy

828
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,439
Speaker 7: and when you accommodate for his injury, they were three.

829
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 7: Then it comes down. But at the same time, it's

830
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 7: just fine. Have the value. I'm going to take one

831
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 7: hundred percent quarterback with all these weapons, and yeah.

832
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 2: It's just it's the Chiefs.

833
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 7: There is value and the teasers are when they were

834
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 7: plus one, kind of missed that boat.

835
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 4: But all right, Jill, what do you got for us?

836
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 4: You think there's gonna be some scoring by Cincinnati.

837
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 8: Yeah, Before I get my pick, I just wanted to

838
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 8: mention one more thing about Patrick Mahomes and just as

839
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 8: a reference point of where he's at from a health standpoint.

840
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 8: So the last two matchups that they have played, his

841
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 8: touchdown odds were around plus four fifty plus five hundred,

842
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 8: and I think it's really telling on where he's at physically.

843
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:55,799
Speaker 8: The fact that they have his touchdown odds right now

844
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 8: at plus eight point fifty at FanDuel to score, so

845
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 8: easily the highest odds he's had all seasons, been the

846
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 8: highest odds probably since twenty nineteen. So just something to

847
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 8: consider if you're looking at touchdown bets for this game.

848
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 8: But for me, the guy that I want to bet,

849
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 8: and it's similar to what we did last week. We

850
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 8: want to take the slot receiver going against this Chiefs defense.

851
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 8: So we're gonna be taking Tyler Boyd to score a

852
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,280
Speaker 8: touchdown in this game, similar to why we took Christian

853
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 8: Kirk last week. He scored the first touchdown for the

854
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 8: Jaguars pretty much in the exact same script that we

855
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 8: had laid out and case. They gave up the second

856
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 8: most touchdowns to the slot during the season, so that

857
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 8: includes both tight ends and wide receivers. So that's why

858
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 8: I'm not totally discounting Hayden Hurst in this spot. But

859
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 8: I just like Tyler Boyd a little bit better. And

860
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 8: because Boyd lines up exclusively in the slot. He had

861
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 8: five touchdowns this year. In the last three matchups with

862
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 8: the Bengals, the Chiefs have given up eight passing touchdowns,

863
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,879
Speaker 8: five of them obviously to wide receivers, so I think

864
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 8: all the Bengals wide receivers are in play Jamar Chase

865
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 8: te Higgins. I just love the value most on Boyd,

866
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 8: specifically because he'll be lining up in the slot. So

867
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 8: based on the odds and matchup, Tyler Boyd is my

868
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 8: final best betup Championship weekend.

869
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

870
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 4: Listen up, I got suckered into this and I did

871
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,439
Speaker 4: some capping myself, so I'm gonna give out a pick.

872
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a pick.

873
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 4: Fucking yeah, we won't tame names, but I got peer

874
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:18,760
Speaker 4: pressured into giving a pick. So I did some capping

875
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 4: before we recorded the show. Here's what they got. So

876
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 4: throughout the course of the week, we had Jill referenced

877
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 4: r pal Nick Giffen, who works in the predictive analytics department,

878
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 4: so does Sean Kerner, and they were on this particular player.

879
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 4: Last week, they decided to fade Joe Mixon in the

880
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 4: passing game, which was then in a way, promoting the

881
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:41,240
Speaker 4: other running back in Cincinnati. Samaj p Ryan over fifteen

882
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 4: and a half receiving yards is my pick for the podcast,

883
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 4: while p Ryan last week five targets in the past.

884
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 4: I have analysis too there, okay, and then we'll find

885
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 4: out if you want your refar.

886
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 6: Okay.

887
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,399
Speaker 4: Five targets for Samaj p Ryan against Buffalo for thirty

888
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 4: one yards, so he cleared the number, no problem last week.

889
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 4: Utilized in the passing game. Mixon's been a beast on

890
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 4: the ground, but in the passing game they've gone to

891
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 4: p Ryan. Last year's AFC title game, Samaj p Ryan

892
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 4: a factor targeted four times, three catches forty three yards.

893
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 1: In that game.

894
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 4: Also scored a touchdown Jill Samaj p Ryan in the

895
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,919
Speaker 4: end zone for those Bengals. So you look back and think, well,

896
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 4: Kansas City's are pretty with Chris Jones, rightfully, so coming

897
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 4: off the edge, there could be some problems there, right well,

898
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 4: I look at Kansas City's softest puppy pooh schedule down

899
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 4: the stretch. There were some games and a trailing game

900
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 4: script possibly where the running back from the opposition had

901
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 4: some games Mike Boone of Denver Latavius Murray sixteen yards

902
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 4: thirty three yards respectively in those occurrences, and they went

903
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 4: head to head. Another name, DJ Dallas was a passing

904
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 4: impact player in the game against Seattle. The other thing is,

905
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 4: I'm going I'm really tailing Kerner here in terms of

906
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 4: his fade of Joe Mixon under reception three and a half,

907
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 4: under passing yards twenty four and a half. Samaj p

908
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 4: Ryan's been a real factor for this offense. And if

909
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 4: we think there's going to be a lot of attention

910
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 4: on their two main weapons. You talked about Boyd there

911
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 4: a second ago, but in Chase and in Higgins, they

912
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 4: have utilized the pass catching running back. And what better

913
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 4: way to like you said Brandon earlier. Get the ball,

914
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 4: run the ball well, stuff it right in the guy's gut,

915
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 4: and get to work. There's also no problem with Joe

916
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 4: Burrow dumping it off to the running back, Samaj p

917
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 4: Ryan over fifteen.

918
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:30,280
Speaker 2: That's to work.

919
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 7: I love it now has some lines in issue like

920
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 7: where like that was an errative last week and all

921
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 7: of a sudden, Chris John's just eating and the Chiefs

922
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 7: are taking advantage of than a narrative that we all

923
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 7: thought would happen last week.

924
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:44,359
Speaker 2: Pier Ryan is it's gonna fly over.

925
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 8: So it also it also helps Luke that the Chiefs

926
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 8: ranked dead last two receptions to running backs this season,

927
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 8: and we're bottom three in receiving yards. So I'm not

928
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 8: one certain on the side with Kerner, but I do

929
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 8: feel like if mixing isn't getting it done, p Ryan

930
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 8: Deaf Finally, especially in the second half of the Bengals

931
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:03,719
Speaker 8: are trailing, is going to get a ton of work.

932
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 8: So good for you on finding some value.

933
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 1: Brandon, do you care to weigh in on this pick?

934
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 5: I agree with all of that. I had that one

935
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,839
Speaker 5: in my notes. That's the possibility. Chiefs are twenty eighth

936
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 5: and DVA against opposing running backs receivers. I love it.

937
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 5: This is definitely a good one. He might need to

938
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 5: be out there more as a pass blocker as well.

939
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:24,320
Speaker 5: If that line's having some issues. Then you get a

940
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 5: few more chances. You might get a two minute drill,

941
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 5: you get a few receptions. You might go with this

942
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 5: on one drive or even one play. So I think

943
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 5: it's a great bet. We're all in on, Samaji, Peter Ryan.

944
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: Let's go all right.

945
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 4: Well, you know I've only made one other pick on

946
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 4: this show, and I think.

947
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: It was End of the Year. Yep, you knew it.

948
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 4: You knew it my friend, and so did David. And

949
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 4: I didn't even put it in the dock because I

950
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 4: wanted to surprise you all. So I got peer pressured,

951
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 4: went to work, and here we go hosting and giving

952
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 4: out picks.

953
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:55,319
Speaker 1: So suck on.

954
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 4: That's it. I think we're good. We're not going to

955
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 4: do a look ahead because how can we do that.

956
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 4: We need to see how these games play out, and

957
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 4: then we'll have the recap show on Sunday. Let's recap

958
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 4: the picks before we get out of here. Brandon Anderson

959
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 4: is on the Philadelphia San Francisco under forty six and

960
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 4: a half, Davante Smith over receiving yards at sixty five

961
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 4: and a half, and he likes Cincinnati second half shop around,

962
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 4: take a look at Cincinnati getting points as of now

963
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 4: second half spread. Luke is on Philadelphia minus two and

964
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 4: a half. AJ Brown over seventy and a half receiving

965
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 4: yards and he's on Cincinnati now plus one, Kansas City

966
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 4: now the favorite as we come to you on this

967
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:40,280
Speaker 4: Thursday recording, and Jill has three anytime touchdown picks Davante Smith,

968
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 4: George Kittle, and Tyler Boyd.

969
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 1: And your boy.

970
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 4: Here is on SAMAJ p Ryan over fifteen and a

971
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 4: half receiving yards.

972
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 9: Your boys ten picks not nine on today's episode That'll

973
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 9: do It for the Action Network podcast our NFL Conference

974
00:47:56,200 --> 00:48:01,319
Speaker 9: Championships Best Bets presented by FanDuel for Brandon Anderson, Luke, Swayne, Joke, Alant,

975
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 9: Friending Glass Jean.

976
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 4: You all enjoy the games recap show comes your way

977
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 4: Sunday night Monday morning, and we'll talk to you again

978
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 4: real soon.

979
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 6: Thanks.

980
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 7: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

981
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 7: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

982
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 7: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler