1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Youre podcast, available every morning 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the 4 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 2: sixteenth of May in London. 5 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hepke. 6 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 4: And I'm Stephen Carroll. 7 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 5: Coming up today, the UK and European Union confront their 8 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 5: differences as they race to finalized deals on immigration and 9 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 5: defense ahead of Monday summit. 10 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: Bloomberg understands that at least five sizeable companies are mulling 11 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,480 Speaker 2: European IPOs in the coming weeks. In news that could 12 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: help fuel a revival of public listings. 13 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 5: Plus an exclusive report on the would be care workers 14 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 5: who've been exploited and squeezed for millions whilst seeking jobs 15 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 5: in the UK. 16 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 3: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. 17 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 5: With days to go before a key EU UK summit 18 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 5: in London, the two sides are struggling to agree to 19 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 5: a text on a defense and security partnership. Bloomberg has 20 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 5: learned top about the UK joining a one hundred and 21 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 5: fifty billion EUROEU military fund have been held up by 22 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 5: other issues on things like phishing rights and migration post Brexit. 23 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 5: The East Filder stan Brovskis says, the tone around the 24 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 5: meeting is still upbeat. 25 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 6: There is this positive momentum. There is williness from both 26 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 6: sides sort of say make a step towards each other. 27 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 6: So I'm confidence that we are going to see positive 28 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,199 Speaker 6: outcomes from the summit and we are going to see 29 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,199 Speaker 6: also follow up action from the summit. 30 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 5: That's these Economy commissioner at Filder stan Bovskis there. Improving 31 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 5: the relationship has been a key ambition of UK Prime 32 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 5: Minister care Starmer's He tried to improve Britain's weak economic 33 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 5: outlook and build a closer alliance in uncertain geopolitical times. 34 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 2: America's top diplomat is downplaying hopes they break through in 35 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 2: talks between ukraated Russia. Secutor of State Marco Rubio says 36 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 2: the likelihood of progress is low without a meeting between 37 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 2: Russian present Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. But 38 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 2: Russia has sent a low level delegation to talks in 39 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 2: Turkey today. Vladimir Putin's spurning and offered by the Ukrainian 40 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 2: leader to meet face to face, Vladimir Zolensky was not impressed. 41 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that the Kremlin leader should show his leadership. 42 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 4: If he's ready for negotiations, let's meet. 43 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 7: We can't really run around the world looking for him. 44 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: Ukraine's Vladimir z Olinsky, speaking there through a translator. He 45 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: also called the Russian delegation a quote sham. Focus now 46 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 2: shifts to when President Trump could meet President Putin and 47 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 2: whether the US would opt to hit Russia with a 48 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 2: fresh round of sanctions. Republican Senator Lindsay Graham has proposed 49 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 2: a bill with what he calls bone crushing sanctions against 50 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 2: the Moscow, which has enough support to pass the Senate, 51 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 2: but it's not clear if President Trump would sign it. 52 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 5: Bloomberg God just chands that several sizeable companies are considering 53 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 5: listing on your Upan stock exchanges in the coming weeks. 54 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 5: A flurry of deals in the region could help fuel 55 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 5: a global revival and IPO activity following recent market volatility. 56 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 5: With more here's Boomberg's crispet. 57 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 7: At least five sizeable firms are mulling listings in the 58 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 7: region in the near future, according to sources who've spoken 59 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 7: to Bloomberg. The companies including Auto Doc, a German online 60 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 7: car parts retailer backed by Apollo Global, a medical technology group, 61 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 7: Brain Lab, Sweden's Hacksaw and Nordic Capital back Noba Bank 62 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 7: are also said to be considering imminent offerings. None of 63 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 7: the companies would confirm exact timings on any possible listing 64 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 7: when asked for comment from Bloomberg, but a successful IPO 65 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 7: season in Europe could be a major boost after regional 66 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 7: activity slow to a crawl in April in London Crispit 67 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 7: Bloomberg Radio. 68 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 2: As the UK Chancellor grapples with the challenge of her 69 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 2: upcoming spending review. Here in the UK, a report by 70 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 2: the country's independent public spending watchdog suggests that there is 71 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 2: more scope to prize revenue from Britain's wealthiest taxpayers. Bloomberg's 72 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 2: un pots has more the. 73 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 8: Wealthiest one percent in the UK already contributes a quarter 74 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 8: of all personal tax revenues, but a report today from 75 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 8: the National Audit Office says the HMRC may be after 76 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 8: squeeze them for more. It gives credit to the Tax 77 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 8: Office for efforts to tackle non compliance, which generated five 78 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 8: point two billion pounds in the year to March twenty 79 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 8: twenty four, a full three billion pounds more than just 80 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 8: four years earlier. But the NAO says that the bumper 81 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 8: revenue secured so far suggests that the hmrc's estimate of 82 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 8: the tax gap for the wealthiest, currently one point nine 83 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 8: billion pounds, is actually far too low. It's a fair 84 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 8: bet that rach Reeves is casting a careful eye over 85 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 8: today's findings. 86 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 4: In London, I'm youwing pots. 87 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Radio Ukrainian Nationale has been charged with three counts 88 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 5: of arson following a series of fires at properties linked 89 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 5: to the UK Prime Minister kerstaf Armour. Twenty one year 90 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 5: old Roman Lavrinovitch is due in course later today. The 91 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 5: charges relate to a fire at the entrance of a 92 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 5: residential property owned by Starmer in the early hours of 93 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 5: the twelfth of May, as well as two other blazers. 94 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 2: Now two more Global News. Japan's economy contracted by zero 95 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 2: point seven percent on an annualized basis in the first 96 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 2: three months of the year. The decline is more than 97 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 2: twice what economists had estimated, and it raises concerns about 98 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 2: the economy's resilience as President Trump's tariffs take effect. Japan 99 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 2: says that it is continuing to seek a reprieve from 100 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 2: the American levies and hopes to reach some form of 101 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 2: agreement with the US next month. 102 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,839 Speaker 5: Analysts say US President Donald Trump is likely to keep 103 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 5: thirty percent tariffs on China until at least the end 104 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 5: of this year. A Bloomberg survey of dozens of fund 105 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 5: managers reveals low expectations of further levy cuts in the 106 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 5: near future despite ongoing negotiations. Whoever, the Director General of 107 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 5: the World Trade Organization, and Gozio konjo Awala says she's 108 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 5: still optimistic after both sides agreed to temporarily lower charges 109 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 5: on each other's goods for ninety days. 110 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: I'm very encouraged, to be honest, because we had felt 111 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: that I need decoupling of China US. So breakdown in 112 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 1: the trading relationship would have quite negative spillovers on the 113 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 1: rest of the world, but especially on poor countries, especially 114 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: if trade really fragments into two trading blocks. So the 115 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 1: fact that there's been a d escalation and agreement to 116 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: reduce tariffs so the extent they have, I think is 117 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: a good sign. 118 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 5: Gozio kondri Aula there, speaking as Bloomberg Economics projector that 119 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 5: current rates could still wipe out seventy percent of Chinese 120 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 5: shipments to the US in the medium term. 121 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 2: Now those are our top stories. Let's get to the markets. 122 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,799 Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is weakening for a second 123 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,359 Speaker 2: session in a row, two tens of one percent lower 124 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 2: the En and Swiss frank among the beneficiaries. Tenure treasury 125 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 2: yields are slightly lower. Traders in our pricing in two 126 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: FED rate cuts this year. 127 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 3: You've also got. 128 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 2: Surging Japanese yield especially on the long end. Stocks though, 129 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,479 Speaker 2: and our trading basically like last month throughout didn't happen. 130 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:10,559 Speaker 2: The S and P five founded only about four percent 131 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 2: away from an all time record high. So just looking 132 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 2: at the stock futures for the European market open, we're 133 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 2: up about a tenth of one percent. But oil markets 134 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 2: have also just moved. We're up by four tenths of 135 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 2: one percent for Brent and WCI crude futures. After comments 136 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 2: from Iran oil takers taking this series of headlines from 137 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 2: Iran as positive, potentially a for crued the fact that 138 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 2: Iran is talking about having hearing many contradictory US positions 139 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 2: That seems to have moved those oil. 140 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 5: Markets in the moment will bring you more on the 141 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 5: latest of wrangling over the EU UK reset ahead of 142 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 5: Monday's summit, and the results of a month's long investigation 143 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 5: into the exploitation of care workers coming into the UK. 144 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 5: But first a word and another story that's caught a 145 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 5: eye this morning. Adrian Wildridge has drawn up an interesting 146 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 5: comparison is the direction that he sees the UK going in. 147 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 2: Yes, of course, and this one is close to your 148 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 2: hearts even of course, because the comparison is to France. 149 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 2: He points to French style policies coming to the UK, 150 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 2: things like the Labor Employment Rights Bill, a National Energy Champion, 151 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 2: Great British Energy, the UK basically adopting more presidential style 152 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: of government, emulating perhaps a little bit the French system. 153 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 2: He calls it the Frenchification of Britain. 154 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, look, it's an interesting The comparisons are 155 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 5: interesting because you know, he points to survey evidence around 156 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 5: people's attitude to work. 157 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 4: You know, forty three percent. 158 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,439 Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, forty three percent of Britain's telling posters that 159 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,559 Speaker 5: would be a good thing of less importance was compared 160 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 5: was placed on work. That's forty percent on the French 161 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 5: side as well. People high value of their ladder activities. 162 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 5: A lot of these comparisons look are things that are 163 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 5: and very up when we're thinking about EUUK relations, shared 164 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 5: values between countries in Western Europe that have large social 165 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,679 Speaker 5: systems and you know, are used to the kind of 166 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 5: model of social democracy that exists in a lot of 167 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 5: this part of the world. 168 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 2: Except and Agent also makes an interesting comparison between Nigel 169 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 2: Farage akin maybe to the Gilejouan movement advance, which I 170 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 2: thought was interesting, but he points to one great difference, 171 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 2: of course, which is, yes, French workers may enjoy their 172 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 2: long August holidays, but they're very efficient, amongst the most 173 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 2: efficient workers in the world, and he's slightly worried that 174 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 2: the UK, with its low productivity, might not be able 175 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 2: to deliver the same. 176 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 5: The tip for a good bakery and battersy in there 177 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,719 Speaker 5: as well. Worth reading bloomber dot comentslash Opinion, or put 178 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 5: a link to the story in our show notes as well. 179 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 3: Well. 180 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 2: Speaking of that UK France relationship, Britain is set to 181 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 2: host European leaders next week for an historic summit where 182 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 2: the country wants to announce a reset of its relationship 183 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,719 Speaker 2: with the EU, but Bloomberg is reporting that although the 184 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 2: mood music will be upbeat, talks between the two sides 185 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 2: about tangible changes really getting down to the wire are 186 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 2: UK politics reported. 187 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 3: James Walcock joins US Now for more on this. Good 188 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 3: morning James. 189 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 2: What's going awry then, in these crucial days ahead of 190 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 2: this summit are the Brexit divisions back? 191 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 9: Caroline, You should know very well by now that Brexit 192 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 9: never left. Look the way America has pivoted on Ukraine 193 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 9: and on global trade has put a rocket under the 194 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 9: UK and the EUSE attempts to sort of reset this relationship, 195 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 9: especially around defense. But what we're reporting is this morning 196 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 9: the same old sows, be they fishing, be they migration, 197 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 9: be they sovereignty and oversight. All that legal wrangling are 198 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 9: likely to make what's announced on Monday a lot more 199 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 9: limited than what might have initially been hoped. Although talks 200 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 9: are still ongoing ahead of this big Monday summit, if. 201 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 5: We were to be thinking optimistically around what could be 202 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 5: done within this as well, what would it mean for 203 00:10:55,240 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 5: the UK economically at a challenging time internationally if deal 204 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 5: were to get over the line, and there's still time 205 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 5: we should point out before the summertime Monday. 206 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 9: I think to understand that you've got to break down 207 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 9: a bit of why they're what this deal could look like, 208 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 9: and why it's there and so on. That you've got 209 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 9: to give credit to Ellen Milligan and Alberton Idea, who 210 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 9: our reporters has. 211 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 4: Been weeks ahead of the competition on this stuff. 212 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 9: So it all comes down starts with this EU Joint 213 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 9: Defense Bunt, which is worth one hundred and fifty billion 214 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 9: euros that was being set up. The UK wants to 215 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 9: be part of it. It's originally set up for the 216 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 9: twenty seven countries in the block. Two weeks ago we 217 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 9: reported that in the first draft of this agreement that 218 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 9: we're going to get on Monday, the UK wasn't mentioned 219 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 9: as being part of this deal and we were very 220 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 9: upset here in Britain. And so then we hear that 221 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 9: the EU coastal states, especially France, didn't want the defense 222 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,079 Speaker 9: part to be included unless fishing was dealt with a 223 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 9: post Brexit fishing arrangement expires later this year. They wanted 224 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 9: it extended, maybe as much as up to seven years. 225 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:58,719 Speaker 9: They also wanted to be involved EU UK food. 226 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 4: Checks along the border. 227 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 9: It's also called phytocytology checks, they would like the deadline 228 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 9: for those to be attached to fish and so then 229 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 9: it expands to migration. Spain's Prime minister has talked about 230 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 9: a human mobility scheme. Then we wrap in the fact 231 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,479 Speaker 9: that starm Kstar and the UK Prime Minister wants bilateral 232 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 9: migration deals, and before you know it, what was supposed 233 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 9: to be a defense packed now includes multiple other issues, 234 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 9: multiple old sores, and what we're going to get on 235 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 9: Monday is likely three documents a Defense and Security partnership, 236 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 9: pleasure common understanding and sort of talk about closer ties. 237 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 4: And so to your point where economically. 238 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 9: Stephen, there is a lot of money to be made 239 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 9: here on defense, there's a lot of GDPs to be 240 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 9: improved on trade, food checks and multiple things, but there 241 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 9: is so much murkiness on what is this future relationship 242 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 9: going forward. 243 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'd add to that though. 244 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 2: On the flip side, the UK of course is home 245 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 2: to a number of very big defense contractors, and that 246 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,079 Speaker 2: is also something that is quite appealing in some quarters 247 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 2: in Europe to perhaps. 248 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 3: Be able to involve them those deals. 249 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 2: But look, kiss Darma made resetting relations with Europe a 250 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,719 Speaker 2: kind of key plank of his agenda. 251 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 3: So how is he going to be talking about this? 252 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 9: Well, in many ways we're seeing the kind of what's 253 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 9: becoming quite the usual life cycle of a British Prime 254 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 9: minister come to power, where the series are great things 255 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 9: that you could give them only to run headfirst, and 256 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 9: sort of the rigid nature of negotiating with a block 257 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 9: of twenty seven different countries. 258 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 4: But look, two things are different this time around. 259 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 9: Firstly, defense, we keep coming back to the conversation is 260 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 9: genuinely quite different amongst countries in Europe and that has 261 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 9: changed the picture. But the other thing that's changed is 262 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 9: right wing sentiment across Europe has changed too. Now in 263 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 9: some ways that frees up starma and opens up new 264 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 9: possibilities that weren't there in sort of twenty nineteen when 265 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,079 Speaker 9: breakstorts were going on. In the other ways, could you 266 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 9: imagine how it would look for on a week where 267 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 9: he has said the experiment with open borders and migration 268 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 9: is over. If he were then to agree to a 269 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:57,079 Speaker 9: UK mobility and a youth mobility scheme for young people 270 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 9: in Europe. He's very concerned about domestic optics. So the 271 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 9: one thing that has stayed the same is although polls 272 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 9: in the UK have shifted and that increasingly a majority 273 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 9: people would favor a better economic relationship with the EU, 274 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 9: the Labor government's position on freedom of movements and on 275 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 9: the free exchange of goods with the continent has not 276 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 9: and blocks of europeanion specifically has not shifted at all. 277 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 5: Okay, James Wilcock are uka part of supporter, Thank you well. 278 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 2: In a week where the UK government has also announced 279 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 2: those big changes on the immigration and migration system in Britain, 280 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business Week is reporting on how migrant care workers 281 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 2: coming to Britain are being scammed out of millions of 282 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 2: pounds by visa sharks. The government has failed to stamp 283 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 2: out exploitation of its own health and care workers visa program, 284 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 2: which has seen seven hundred thousand people, if you include dependents, 285 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 2: come to the UK to perform essential caregiving and our 286 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 2: reporter Lucy White has been investigating this for a number 287 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 2: of months for Bloomberg and she this morning, It's nice 288 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 2: to see you, Lucy. What has been going wrong with 289 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 2: this visa scheme? Can you give us the size and 290 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 2: scope of the abuse? 291 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 10: Sure? So, I've been working on this story for about 292 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 10: a year now, and the cases that I've come across 293 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 10: have reached the hundreds, and I feel like I've only 294 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 10: very much touched the surface of this. So essentially what 295 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 10: happens is if you're a migrant care worker under the 296 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 10: system that exists at the moment and has existed since 297 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 10: around twenty twenty when Boris Johnson was in government. If 298 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 10: you think back to twenty twenty, we were in the 299 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 10: middle of the pandemic. We had a huge shortage of 300 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,479 Speaker 10: care workers, the people who look after our elderly are disabled, 301 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 10: and we just had Brexit as well, so obviously a 302 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 10: lot of the European people who were working in the 303 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:52,359 Speaker 10: country then had left and we had this huge staffing crisis. 304 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 10: Boris Johnson essentually wanted to create a system where we 305 00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 10: could allow people into the country easy yet to fill 306 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 10: those vacancies in the care sector, and he created this 307 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 10: Health and Care Visa where employers in the country who 308 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 10: needed to recruit from overseas could hand out certificates of 309 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 10: sponsorship that essentially gave migrants in foreign countries the right 310 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 10: to work in the UK. 311 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 11: It was a certificate that said you have a job 312 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 11: in the UK. 313 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 10: The problem is people were selling these certificates for thousands 314 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 10: and thousands of pounds, which is illegal. It is illegal 315 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 10: for under international law for workers to pay for a 316 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 10: job opportunity for recruitment purposes. And the problem is is 317 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 10: that some of these people were getting legitimate certificates of 318 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 10: sponsorship and were able to come to the country, then 319 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 10: they were often being exploited when they got here, which 320 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 10: is a whole different cattle fish. But a lot of 321 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 10: people were being sold these certificates of sponsorship and never 322 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 10: actually got them. They were being sold them fraudulently. They 323 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 10: were being sold fake certificates, and the people who were 324 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 10: in the UK, the businesses who were involved in selling 325 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 10: those certificates of sponsorship often on the Home Office list 326 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 10: of approved sponsors that were approved to hand out these certificates. 327 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 10: So it really gets the heart of the fact that 328 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,439 Speaker 10: the government was not doing proper checks. This system was 329 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 10: not properly regulated and it's ended up with millions of 330 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 10: pounds just in the cases the small number of cases 331 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 10: that we've seen essentially being laundered from people in developing 332 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 10: countries through the UK and used to buy what we've 333 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 10: seen range rovers property investments and it's absolutely sickening, to 334 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 10: be honest, and part. 335 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 5: Of your story attracks down some of the people who've 336 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,399 Speaker 5: essentially taken matters into their own hands to try and 337 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 5: establish where the money has gone. But what about the 338 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 5: official response to this? What are the government and the 339 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 5: police doing about it? 340 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 10: So I've had a number of conversations with various different 341 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 10: people within the Home Office over the last few months, 342 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 10: and to me it seems that they are not particularly 343 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 10: aware of the problem that exists. I don't think they 344 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 10: realized the scope of it. I don't think they realized 345 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 10: the scale of it, and I would like to hope 346 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 10: that there are some sort of internal conversations going on 347 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 10: about how they might address this, but at the moment 348 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 10: I haven't seen any evidence of that. When it comes 349 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 10: to the police, in terms of the people that we've 350 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 10: been in touch with, the victims of this that we've 351 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,360 Speaker 10: been in touch with, we have urged them to go 352 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 10: to the police. They go to the body called Action Fraud, 353 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 10: which is part of the City of London Police, which 354 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 10: deals with nationwide fraud reports, and many of them have 355 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 10: now started reporting to Action Fraud. We saw over three 356 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 10: hundred reported last year, but Action Fraud then has the 357 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 10: right not to pass on those cases to the police 358 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 10: if they don't think there's a realistic chance of them 359 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 10: being followed up, or if they don't think the police 360 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 10: have the time to deal with these types of fraud. 361 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 10: And with every case that I've seen that has been 362 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 10: passed to Action Fraud, Action Fraud has said, we decided 363 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 10: not to pass this on to the police. We do 364 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 10: know there are a couple of cases that we have 365 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 10: reported to the police that are still under investigation. 366 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 11: One of those is mentioned in the story. 367 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 10: But at the moment it seems that the authorities have 368 00:18:58,520 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 10: largely decided to. 369 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 11: Turn a blind eyed this. 370 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,679 Speaker 2: So then how does this visa program fit in also 371 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 2: with the changes that the government is making to immigration 372 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 2: and visa schemes. 373 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,439 Speaker 10: Well, it's interesting you should say that because obviously we 374 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 10: had Kostama's Immigration White Paper announced this week, and that 375 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 10: announced them massive changes to the. 376 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:22,440 Speaker 11: Way migration works in the UK. 377 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,639 Speaker 10: We're still to see a lot of the detail of 378 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 10: that to come out, but we have one of the 379 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 10: biggest changes in that white paper, which was announcing the 380 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 10: end of overseas recruitment of care workers. So that means 381 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 10: essentially the end of certificates of sponsorship for these people, 382 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 10: and in a way that should stop future scams because 383 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 10: you know, if you're in a country like Zimbabwe in 384 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 10: Nigeria and you've heard about this, then you know that 385 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 10: there is no way to come to the UK as 386 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 10: a careworker anymore. 387 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:51,959 Speaker 11: I mean that there's several issues with this. 388 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,640 Speaker 10: A it depends on people in those countries actually knowing 389 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 10: about this policy and knowing that they can't come to 390 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,679 Speaker 10: the UK anymore. So if someone tries to sell them 391 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,919 Speaker 10: a dodgy certificate of sponsor, then they actually know that 392 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 10: it's unlikely to be real. And then you've also got 393 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 10: the issue that this is raising for the care sector. 394 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 10: They are really worried about how they're going to be 395 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 10: able to recruit enough staff now because we're still seeing 396 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,680 Speaker 10: vacancies in that sector. And it's worth mentioning as well 397 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 10: that this does nothing for the people who have been 398 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 10: fall and prey to these scams over the past several years. 399 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 10: It's not addressing the fact that they have lost tens 400 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 10: of thousands of pounds. They've often sold everything they have 401 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 10: in their country of origin, you know, their house, their land, 402 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 10: their cars, the equipment they. 403 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 11: Had for work. 404 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 10: They are still out of pocket to the tune of 405 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 10: thousands of pounds, which is a large amount of money 406 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 10: when you're in a country like that, and they essentially 407 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 10: now have absolutely no hope of the dream that they 408 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 10: had of getting to the UK, because you know, many 409 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 10: of them literally pin their life savings, their life's hopes 410 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,199 Speaker 10: on getting into the UK to be able to make 411 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 10: a better life for themselves here, and they're essentially left 412 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 10: now with no hope of ever doing that. 413 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 414 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 5: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. 415 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify, 416 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 417 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 5: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio, 418 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 5: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 419 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 420 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 421 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 11: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen. 422 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,120 Speaker 5: Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news 423 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 5: you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg 424 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 5: day Break Europe.