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Speaker 1: Welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind, the production of

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Speaker 1: My Heart Radio. Hey, welcome to Stuff to Blow your Mind.

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Speaker 1: My name is Robert Lamb and I'm Joe McCormick and

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Speaker 1: Rob I wanna ask you a question. I think I've

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Speaker 1: talked about this on the show before, but now I

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Speaker 1: can't quite recall. You've seen the movie adaptation of Carl

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Speaker 1: Sagan's Contact, right, Yes, it's been a while. I saw

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Speaker 1: it when it came out in theaters and I haven't

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Speaker 1: seen it since. Oh wow, that is a long time ago.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, it's I mean, it's really worth the watch

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Speaker 1: that movie. Uh, it always makes me emotional. But like,

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Speaker 1: one of the things about it that I always sticks

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Speaker 1: in my brain the most is the very opening sequence

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Speaker 1: where you you're starting um on Earth and you're pulling

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Speaker 1: out away from Earth, and as you get farther away

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Speaker 1: out into interstellar space, the signals that you are hearing

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Speaker 1: coming from Earth, like you're hearing like radio broadcasts or

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Speaker 1: television cast or something, and and it just gets older

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Speaker 1: and older because you're you're pulling out to where older

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Speaker 1: and older signals are the only ones that have reached

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Speaker 1: that far. Yeah, and of course there's this very chilling

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Speaker 1: moment where you get really far out there and I

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Speaker 1: think you're just getting like a signal of Hitler reading

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Speaker 1: a speech or something that's just like, oh god, And

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Speaker 1: it really makes you think about what kind of impression

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Speaker 1: humanity is making on the broader galaxy. Yeah, I I

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Speaker 1: specifically remember this this from the film. Yeah, it makes

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Speaker 1: makes quite an impression and makes you, yeah, a little

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Speaker 1: reflective on the on on human civilization itself. And and

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Speaker 1: and if anyone's receiving these signals, anything is receiving these signals,

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Speaker 1: what they're picking up on and what their impression is

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Speaker 1: going to be of the of human civilization? Yeah, Like,

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Speaker 1: what if aliens the only thing they intercepted and had

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Speaker 1: to go on was a TV edited broadcast of Batman Forever?

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Speaker 1: What would they what would they conclude about Earth life?

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Speaker 1: That's it's it's a it's a fun game. Uh, And

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Speaker 1: it also plays into some fun sci fi to think

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Speaker 1: about this. Uh. There's of course the Futurama episode where

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Speaker 1: it's essentially um, uh, what what was it? Ally mccuh?

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Speaker 1: What was the lawyer show, Ally McBeal. Yeah, it's like

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Speaker 1: an Ally McBeal s show that was canceled or it's um,

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Speaker 1: it's it's a season finale didn't air, or somehow they

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Speaker 1: didn't receive it. And that's what the aliens have come

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Speaker 1: to Earth in order to to get. They want the

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Speaker 1: season finale for this television show. Oh. I think that's

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Speaker 1: also sort of the premise of Galaxy Quest, isn't it

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Speaker 1: that they see like a Star Trek style show, but

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Speaker 1: they think it's a documentary about real life on Earth. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's right now. Of course, radio signals and so forth,

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Speaker 1: they're not the only things that we have sent out

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Speaker 1: into the void. Uh. We of course have sent machines

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Speaker 1: as well. And I want us to to think back

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Speaker 1: for a second to the Pioneer plaques, the gold anodized

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Speaker 1: aluminum plaques attached to the nineteen seventy two Pioneer ten

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Speaker 1: and the nineteen any three Pioneer eleven spacecrafts. These were

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Speaker 1: the first human made objects to escape velocity from our

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Speaker 1: Solar System, in the first physical emissaries of Earth life

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Speaker 1: and Earth civilization. I think in the years since, they've

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Speaker 1: actually been outpaced by the voyager probes in leaving the

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Speaker 1: Solar System? Is that right? I think? I believe so

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Speaker 1: and there's of course a similar story to tell with

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Speaker 1: those uh spacecraft as well, but but uh specifically with

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Speaker 1: the plaques, because of you know, these were of course machines,

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Speaker 1: they were not human beings. They were powered by nuclear batteries,

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Speaker 1: they had antenna, uh antenna, they had an assortment of

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Speaker 1: scientific equipment on board, so they didn't look like us

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Speaker 1: or in any way really represent biological life, except in

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Speaker 1: the case of these plaques, which include a number of

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Speaker 1: symbols detailing the origin of the spacecraft and then to

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Speaker 1: sort of convey you know, you know, human understanding of

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Speaker 1: where we are in the Solar System and then the

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Speaker 1: larger cosmos. But then also it contained these these now

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Speaker 1: iconic depictions of two human beings, a nude male and

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Speaker 1: a nude female. Now it's worth noting Carl Sagan regretted

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Speaker 1: that the humans on the plaque do not appear pan racial,

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Speaker 1: but rather appear very Caucasian. And also the line representing

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Speaker 1: the females Volva was removed, so she's kind of like, um,

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Speaker 1: like a Barbie doll on this, you know, so they're

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Speaker 1: not completely anatomically correct, and they seem to only represent

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Speaker 1: uh Caucasians as opposed to like a the idea of

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Speaker 1: representing the broader human species as a whole. Now, one

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Speaker 1: of the things that's super interesting about all of this,

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Speaker 1: especially given what we're gonna be talking about in this episode,

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Speaker 1: is that the Pioneer probes and subsequent spacecraft are non

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Speaker 1: human machines that merely bear in some cases the inscriptions

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Speaker 1: of human beings, be they you know, actual inscriptions or

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Speaker 1: media of some sort. Uh. And at the same time,

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Speaker 1: these are our mechanical works, our machine utterances that are

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Speaker 1: cast out into the void. They are us reaching out

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Speaker 1: four and two other life forms. Now today, humans maintain

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Speaker 1: a small orbital presence, and humans did visit the Moon

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Speaker 1: in the previous century, but our outreach continues to take

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Speaker 1: the form of these technological utterances. And even though it

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Speaker 1: is the work of human beings on our planet to

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Speaker 1: analyze the data we receive in search of possible signs

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Speaker 1: of alien life, we also use artificial intelligence in many

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Speaker 1: scientific and technological applications, including the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

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Speaker 1: That is strange. Yeah, and uh, I guess it's interesting

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Speaker 1: on a couple of levels. So, first of all, you know,

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Speaker 1: one of the things humans and we've discussed this in

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Speaker 1: the show before. One of the things that humans and

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Speaker 1: their AI creations look for our techno signatures, and these

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Speaker 1: include both radio signals and things like megastructures like dycen

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Speaker 1: s fears. You know. Uh so, just as we are

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Speaker 1: reaching out with our mechanical utterances, we are seeking the

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Speaker 1: mechanical utterances of others. Yeah, we haven't talked about dycen

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Speaker 1: spheres in a while, but unless my memory is betraying me,

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Speaker 1: I think one of the ways to look for something

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Speaker 1: like that would be look out there and see if

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Speaker 1: there's some kind of structure object that is basically only

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Speaker 1: emitting heat. And the idea there would be, you know,

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Speaker 1: if all the other frequencies of radiation are being used

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Speaker 1: up and only heat is coming out of it, that

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Speaker 1: looks like that's probably a waste product of doing work.

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Speaker 1: So it's like, you know, it's the fan on your

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Speaker 1: computer just blowing out into space. Yeah. Yeah, so, and

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Speaker 1: and basically coming back to the idea that advanced civilizations

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Speaker 1: are going to have advanced energy requirements and therefore they're

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Speaker 1: going to have to harness the energy of entire suns. Now,

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Speaker 1: the other angle on this that that is interesting in

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Speaker 1: one that I really hadn't thought about. Uh, is that

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Speaker 1: there may be problems with our use of AI for

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Speaker 1: such searches, as pointed out by Spanish clinical neuropsychologist Gabriel G.

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Speaker 1: Dela Torre in a paper published in Acta Astronautica UM. Basically,

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Speaker 1: the idea is AI could confuse us or tell us

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Speaker 1: that it has detected impossible or false things in the data.

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Speaker 1: And our AI creations can certainly reflect our own biases.

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Speaker 1: We we've discussed that as well, you know, like we

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Speaker 1: can and and you know this this applies to things

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Speaker 1: like facial recognition, etcetera. Like we can we can easily

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Speaker 1: program our own um, you know, uh overt or hidden

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Speaker 1: wants and desires into the AI we create, Yeah, or

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Speaker 1: not even program them. AI can acquire them from data

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Speaker 1: sets based on our own reality. If it's just trying

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Speaker 1: to like read what has happened in the world and

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Speaker 1: learned from that. It can internalize biases that we didn't

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Speaker 1: even try to explicitly give it because those biases are

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Speaker 1: reflected in how the world is. Yeah. So the AI

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Speaker 1: we unleash on on on such a search for alien

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Speaker 1: life might simply be more inclined to find evidence of

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Speaker 1: it dragging in human bias, or it could simply identify

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Speaker 1: things that are not there. It could find and patterns

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Speaker 1: that that that simply aren't actually there in a meaningful way.

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Speaker 1: Oh well, this immediately makes me think of what was

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Speaker 1: it called the Google Deep Dream that found you know,

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Speaker 1: dog faces in everything, where like have a have a

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Speaker 1: picture and have Google analyze it, and I think it

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Speaker 1: would try to extract recognizable patterns and then amplify them.

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Speaker 1: So you take a picture of your couch and suddenly

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Speaker 1: your couch, you know, Google happens to detect that your

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Speaker 1: couch is made out of crabs, dogs, and human faces. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so you know you wouldn't want your your your AI

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Speaker 1: reporting back and saying we found it. It's a planet.

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Speaker 1: We're calling it Good Dog one. It's composed entirely of

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Speaker 1: dog faces, so let's celebrate. And it's under threat from

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Speaker 1: the nearby crab nebula, not the crab nebula, you know,

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Speaker 1: the literal crab nebula, which is made of crabs. So

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Speaker 1: there's actually a specific situation that the author points out

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Speaker 1: in this paper, and it concerns that the Nalia faculae

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Speaker 1: of series, the largest object in the asteroid belt. Basically

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Speaker 1: the situation here is bright spots were observed in a

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Speaker 1: crater there, which turned out to be volcanic ice and

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Speaker 1: salt emissions. You might remember seeing pictures of this on

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Speaker 1: the internet. So, yeah, Series is an object in the

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Speaker 1: asteroid belt, sometimes referred to I think as a dwarf

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Speaker 1: planet or something. It's basically spherical, so it looks kind

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Speaker 1: of like a moon, uh. And that Yeah, there was

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Speaker 1: a big crater in it where right in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the crater there was there were these white, bright

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Speaker 1: white spots there. And obviously, you know, without knowing better

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Speaker 1: and having learned our lesson from the face on Mars

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Speaker 1: and all this stuff, you know, people's natural inclination was

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Speaker 1: to was to pattern recognize out the butt and go

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Speaker 1: like that technology or something, this is an alien Yeah, clearly. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you start looking for geometric shapes and uh and and

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Speaker 1: looking for artificiality in it. And so this this particular paper,

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Speaker 1: this this team from the University of Cadiz, they had

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Speaker 1: already looked at what they called the cosmic guerrilla effect

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Speaker 1: into only eighteen UM. This is this is um referring

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Speaker 1: of course to these uh, these attention based experiments that

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Speaker 1: we've we've discussed before in the show, and a lot

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Speaker 1: of you've probably seen in YouTube clips where you have

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Speaker 1: somebody in a guerrilla costume walk through a scene and

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Speaker 1: see afterwards if anybody noticed it. Yeah, human cognition has

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Speaker 1: amazing blind spots for attention that will astound you. Now

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Speaker 1: we've already warned you, so if you've never tried this

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Speaker 1: experiment before, you might be on your guard and already

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Speaker 1: knowing what to look for. Yeah, Basically, the way it

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Speaker 1: goes is like, you can do something like have a

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Speaker 1: bunch of people stand in a circle throwing a basketball

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Speaker 1: to each other, and you ask people to judge how

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Speaker 1: many times the basketball has passed from person to person,

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Speaker 1: and they'll do that, and in the middle of the video,

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Speaker 1: a person in a guerrilla costume just walks through the

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Speaker 1: middle of the group, and huge numbers of people while

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Speaker 1: they're counting the basketball passes do not see the gorilla.

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Speaker 1: And it's like, if you go back and watch the

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Speaker 1: video again looking for the gorilla, it is unmissable. But somehow,

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Speaker 1: when we're trained in on a certain type of cognitive

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Speaker 1: task and visual processing, you can completely miss gross stimuli

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Speaker 1: that that would seem impossible to miss if you were

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Speaker 1: looking for them. Yeah, And of course one can imagine

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Speaker 1: that if an artificial intelligence were watching the same scene,

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Speaker 1: they would pick up on the gorilla. They would they

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Speaker 1: would it would be able to say, oh, gorilla, unexpected

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Speaker 1: guerilla has appeared in this scene and then reported as such.

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Speaker 1: And so the cosmic guerrilla effect basically deals with the

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Speaker 1: idea that eve there are intelligent, non earthly signals out there.

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Speaker 1: They could be written dimensions that escape our perceptions, such

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Speaker 1: as dark matter for example, and it would be like

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Speaker 1: the guerrilla suit. You know, you just wouldn't see it.

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Speaker 1: But an AI would potentially have an advantage in catching

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Speaker 1: those sorts of signals. Oh okay, yeah, I see what

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Speaker 1: they're saying there. So in in this between, in this

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Speaker 1: this this newer study looking at the Venalia faculae. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they did the following. They used a hunt sixty volunteers,

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Speaker 1: human volunteers with no grounding in astronomy. I wanted to

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Speaker 1: stress they're not guerillas or robots. Um. Plus, they used

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Speaker 1: an artificial vision system based on con evolutional neural networks

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Speaker 1: or CNNs. Both groups detected square structures in the image

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Speaker 1: of the venalia faculae. But the AI also saw a triangle,

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Speaker 1: and when the triangle option was then presented to humans,

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Speaker 1: um the number of humans claiming to also see a

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Speaker 1: triangle increase significantly. So while AI could certainly detect something

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Speaker 1: that we cannot that we cannot see, it might also

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Speaker 1: detect something that isn't there and then confuse us into

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Speaker 1: seeing something that isn't there as well. So you can

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Speaker 1: see the the sort of spiraling effects of this. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And ultimately, with the aid of AI, we end up

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Speaker 1: seeing signs of life where there weren't any to begin with. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I see, I see what you're saying. So the idea

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Speaker 1: is that humans already have a certain tendency for paradolia

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Speaker 1: or paradolia the detecting of patterns or signal within noise.

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Speaker 1: So that's the reason that we see faces in the clouds,

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Speaker 1: or see a face on Mars, or any number of things.

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Speaker 1: We look at something that in fact has no encoded

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Speaker 1: information in it, and we think we can extract meaningful information,

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Speaker 1: I mean no meaningful information, and we think we can

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Speaker 1: extract meaningful information. Uh. You know, listening to tape hiss,

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Speaker 1: you might think you hear a word or something like that.

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Speaker 1: And the example here is we think we see I

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Speaker 1: don't know a pyramid or a you know, a building

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Speaker 1: on this asteroid or this dwarf planet, and then you

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Speaker 1: can actually make it worse by if you add on

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Speaker 1: an AI. The AI may in fact contribute to priming

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Speaker 1: that makes you even more likely to engage in paradolia.

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Speaker 1: The same way that if somebody plays you a tape

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Speaker 1: hiss and doesn't just play it for you, but says,

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Speaker 1: you know, hey, listen for the part where it says

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Speaker 1: worship Satan or whatever, that you're probably more likely to

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Speaker 1: hear it because you've been primed. Yeah, yeah, exactly. I

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Speaker 1: mean it's kind of like imagine, you know, you're thinking

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Speaker 1: about Fleetwood Mac albums and then you learn, oh, um,

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Speaker 1: you know one of this, you know, Watson AI or

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Speaker 1: whatever has determined that Tusk is the best Fleetwood Mac album.

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Speaker 1: And you might think, well, you know, it wasn't my favorite,

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Speaker 1: but the AI has identified it as the best Fleetwood

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Speaker 1: Mac album. Perhaps it is the best Fleetwood Mac album,

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Speaker 1: even though deep down you know it's rumors, even if

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Speaker 1: deep down you know it's one of those early albums

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Speaker 1: before Stevie Nicks was in the band. Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: exactly basically, Yeah, it comes back to that, but it

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Speaker 1: has come back to the idea, yeah that we we're

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Speaker 1: we're entire we're very susceptible to priming, and we could

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Speaker 1: And the argument here by the authors is that you

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Speaker 1: could set up a situation where where your AI dragging

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Speaker 1: in certain biases is setting you up, is priming you

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Speaker 1: to to with it see things that aren't there, which

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Speaker 1: could ultimately just make the search for actual, you know,

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Speaker 1: evidence of intelligent alien life elsewhere in the galaxy all

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Speaker 1: the more difficult. So this is kind of a conundrum

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Speaker 1: because the AI could it could be helpful and harmful,

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Speaker 1: Like it could help with the problem of the gorilla effect,

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Speaker 1: where we uh, you know, we just totally miss things

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Speaker 1: that we should have seen. But it can also, on

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Speaker 1: the other end, cause us to see things that aren't there. Yes,

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Speaker 1: absolutely uh and and a lot of some of this

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Speaker 1: isn't completely crucial to where we're going from from here

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Speaker 1: in the episode. It's worth thinking and thinking about because

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Speaker 1: here's the other side of things. What's out there might

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Speaker 1: not simply be the mechanical utterances of biological life as well,

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Speaker 1: it could be the mechanical echoes of biological life, what

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Speaker 1: is sometimes referred to as post biological life, and even

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Speaker 1: post biological intelligence. And this this has some huge implications

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Speaker 1: um all its own. Okay, So the idea here would

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Speaker 1: be not that you know, we we already expect that

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Speaker 1: it's possible we could encounter alien technology rather than biological

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Speaker 1: aliens themselves, just because alien technology is say a you know,

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Speaker 1: an artifact of their previous occupation of a planetary surface,

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Speaker 1: or a piece of technology could be their probe like

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Speaker 1: our voyager probes. You know, these do not have humans

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Speaker 1: in them, They're just going out there. Yeah, but this

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Speaker 1: idea goes beyond that to say, well, maybe it's not

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Speaker 1: just that we're encountering the mechanical residue of biological life,

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Speaker 1: but we're encountering a civilization that at this point only

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Speaker 1: consists of machines that there that is inherently post biological. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: At what point does the residue become the thing itself

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Speaker 1: as a civilization becomes increasingly technological. At what point is

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Speaker 1: the technology the defining or soul aspect of the civilization. Yeah, Now,

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Speaker 1: this is an idea that's certainly been disgusted in science

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Speaker 1: fiction a lot. I think gene Wolfe had had one

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Speaker 1: version of this, where you have an entire mechanical society

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Speaker 1: and they have evolved from advance space suits for biological

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Speaker 1: beings that no longer exist. Uh that sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, okay, not to give away too much, but

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Speaker 1: this is also explored in one of our favorite video

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Speaker 1: games that we've talked about on the show before, a

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Speaker 1: really cool game called Soma that is sort of an

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Speaker 1: undersea sci fi horror game that involves a post biological existence. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: a good connection. I wasn't even thinking about Soma, but

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Speaker 1: but that that is a great example of this as well.

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Speaker 1: So a couple of sources that we we looked at

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Speaker 1: for this that I want to go and mention here,

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Speaker 1: and of course we'll get into in greater depth the

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Speaker 1: work of Sti's Seth show Stock and the work of

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Speaker 1: Susan Schneider, a cognitive scientist and philosopher. I was just

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Speaker 1: trying to look up Susan Schneider's affiliation. I think at

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Speaker 1: some point she was affiliated with the University of Connecticut.

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Speaker 1: It looks like maybe the more recent one is Florida

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Speaker 1: Atlantic University. But anyway, yeah, she She is a philosopher

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Speaker 1: whose work we have discussed on the show before. Actually,

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Speaker 1: her work came up in an episode we did about

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Speaker 1: whether machines could be conscious, because she was one of

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Speaker 1: the authors who advanced the idea of a test for

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Speaker 1: AI consciousness that I thought was pretty interesting, and it

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Speaker 1: was actually very simple. The test was basically just variations

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Speaker 1: on can this machine grasp and manipulate supernatural concepts from

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Speaker 1: fiction and folk belief, such as ghosts and astral projection

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Speaker 1: and body swapping like in the movie Freaky Friday and stuff.

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Speaker 1: You know, it might sound kind of silly, but actually

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Speaker 1: these are concepts that I think you can make a

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Speaker 1: good argument only intuitively make sense to us because we

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Speaker 1: have a subjective internal experience, and to an intelligent machine

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Speaker 1: or even a biological automaton that didn't have an internal experience,

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Speaker 1: it would not make any sense to to envision something

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Speaker 1: like being a ghost or an astral projection where your

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Speaker 1: consciousness leaves your body, because what would be doing the

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Speaker 1: leaving of the body? Mm hmmm. Yeah, you know now

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Speaker 1: that I'm thinking about Susan Schneider, I think I saw

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Speaker 1: her at World Science festival at some point in the past. Um,

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Speaker 1: but I didn't think of it till now. I forgot

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Speaker 1: to check my my old notes to see if I

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Speaker 1: had anything I wanted to start with with show Stack though,

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Speaker 1: uh specifically his two thousand tin paper what ET Will

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Speaker 1: look Like and why Should We Care? And this Uh, Basically,

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Speaker 1: this paper discusses um uh, this idea of post biological life,

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Speaker 1: the search for extraterrestrial life, and it starts off by

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Speaker 1: discussing our carbon bias in the hunt for for for

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Speaker 1: e t s uh. You know, we we look for

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Speaker 1: rocky worlds that contain liquid water as this is the

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Speaker 1: path towards organic life. This is where organic life emerges from.

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Speaker 1: All of our models are built on this, uh. And

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Speaker 1: and that's that's the softer version of our bias, while

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Speaker 1: the harder version is what what he references an individual

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Speaker 1: by the name of Simon Conway Morris who argues that

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Speaker 1: any evolved intelligent life form is going to roughly look

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Speaker 1: like us, at least in show Stacks words quote in

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Speaker 1: a dark night and from a distance. And I believe

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Speaker 1: we've discussed this idea at length on the podcast. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think this was one of the earliest episodes of

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Speaker 1: the show I ever did, so it was a years

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Speaker 1: and years ago at this point, but we talked about

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Speaker 1: Simon Conway Morris, who I think is an evolutionary biologist

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Speaker 1: from Great Britain if I'm not mistaken, but he uh oh,

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Speaker 1: it was the episode called Grizzly Bears from Outer Space,

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Speaker 1: where so they're there are two very opposing schools of

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Speaker 1: thinking about, you know, the forms intelligent aliens could take.

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Speaker 1: Some people say, you know it, we can't even imagine

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Speaker 1: how different they could be from us. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: it's impossible for us to get outside of our own

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Speaker 1: anthro anthropomorphic paradigm to imagine how biologically your friend and

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Speaker 1: strange aliens could be. And Morris was on the other side.

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Speaker 1: He was saying, no, they're actually principles of evolution and

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Speaker 1: sort of bio chemical constraints on what life could evolve.

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Speaker 1: And basically he says, there's a pretty narrow range for

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Speaker 1: what types of organisms can evolve, just based on the

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Speaker 1: physics and chemistry of the universe, and so we actually

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Speaker 1: shouldn't expect aliens to be all that different from us.

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Speaker 1: We should actually expect them to be pretty similar. In uh,

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Speaker 1: in very dependable ways. Yeah, this kind of the idea

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Speaker 1: whereherever you go, they're probably gonna be things like crabs,

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Speaker 1: and there is going to be something like a human

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Speaker 1: um chasing those crabs around with some sort of a

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Speaker 1: tool that's made to catch those crabs. Yeah. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's been a while, so I'm sure i'm somewhat oversimplifying.

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Speaker 1: Apologies to Conway Morris, but but that's the rough outline.

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Speaker 1: It is that that that biology is constrained by physics

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Speaker 1: and chemistry and evolution, and those factors are going to

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Speaker 1: be universal no matter what kind of planet you're on

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Speaker 1: or you know, what star you're orbiting, and so there

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Speaker 1: are some patterns we should repeating all throughout the galaxy.

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Speaker 1: So so that's one part of it. But then apparently

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Speaker 1: a lot of this bias is present. Arguably the show Stacks,

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Speaker 1: you know, argues to this in the Drake equation itself,

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Speaker 1: as we factor in the time it would take for

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Speaker 1: life to evolve and the average lifetime of a technological society.

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Speaker 1: Now we're called the Drake equation was a hypothetical way

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Speaker 1: of trying to calculate the number of technological civilizations that

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Speaker 1: would be present in our galaxy by multiplying together a

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Speaker 1: bunch of numbers, and I don't remember what all the

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Speaker 1: variables are now, but it would be something like you

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Speaker 1: multiply the probability that life will arise on a planet

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Speaker 1: at all times, the probability of that of any life

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Speaker 1: becoming intelligent times that you know, a number of things

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Speaker 1: like that. And then I think you would also have

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Speaker 1: to factor in the average lifespan of a technological civilization

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Speaker 1: because at some point it will probably go extinct. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and we keep coming back to the Drake equation, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, in not just spend in general, because it

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Speaker 1: breaks a big quest and down into these different factors

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Speaker 1: that you can then, um, you know, work with independently. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's very useful. It decomposes the problem into a discrete

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Speaker 1: set of smaller questions, many of which also we still

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Speaker 1: don't know the answers to. But it is at least

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Speaker 1: helpful to know what those questions would be so they

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Speaker 1: can be investigated individually. Now, the chance of detecting a

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Speaker 1: technological civilization close to our own level of development is

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Speaker 1: apparently small. Chances are if we were to detect one,

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Speaker 1: they'd be thousands of years or more beyond us. And

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Speaker 1: when we extrapolate that show stack says we we what

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Speaker 1: we tend to do is we tend to base it

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Speaker 1: on our current state of human evolution and imagine something

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Speaker 1: it points out with with less hair, with fewer teeth,

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Speaker 1: with wrestle, with less reliance on physical labor um, which

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Speaker 1: you know, to me this instantly makes me think of

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Speaker 1: like the gray ones, right, and you know the various

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Speaker 1: extraterrestrial tropes that we have, which yeah, are kind of

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Speaker 1: an idea of what if we continued to get less exercise,

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00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: we continued to stare at screens, continue to type and

430
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 1: stay indoors, you know, for you know, you know million

431
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 1: years or so, Uh, what could begin to happen? It's hilarious.

432
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 1: The gray aliens are just nerds. They're the nerds of

433
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 1: the galaxy. They're all brains, no braun, huge head to

434
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 1: contain that huge brain that can design their interstellar spaceships,

435
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 1: and then skinny little arms and they stand around with

436
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,239
Speaker 1: their huge eyes, poking us with with sticks and going like,

437
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 1: oh what you know, what have we learned? And yet

438
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: with those huge brains, like how many cattle are they

439
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: going to have to mutilate before they finally figure out

440
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,239
Speaker 1: what makes a cow work a lot a lot, you know.

441
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 1: Um so, so the show Stack ultimately makes the argument

442
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: that that this idea should evolve, that that or should

443
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 1: have evolved more than it has. And he does this

444
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: by pointing out that, you know that that our ideas

445
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 1: evolved concerning life on Mars. You know, initially, uh, we

446
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: we were looking at we were considering, oh, the possibilit

447
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: be of intelligent canal builders on Mars. And we've discussed

448
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 1: where that idea came from on the show before, you know, uh,

449
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: sort of misinterpretation and and and straining to to see

450
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 1: things that weren't there a little bit of that that

451
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: that bias as well, uh, regarding our some of our

452
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: earlier views of the red planet. But then just within

453
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 1: a few decades that is forced to evolve when we realize, oh,

454
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: there aren't canals and uh, and you know, there's instead

455
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: of looking for the technological society, we're looking at the

456
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: possibility of subterranean microbes. So our ideas concerning life and

457
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,719
Speaker 1: other star systems, they argue, has not evolved in a

458
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: similar way. Well, certainly not in the popular consciousness. I

459
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 1: would say, I mean, at least in some of the

460
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 1: astro biology literature we read, it seems like it it

461
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 1: is uh, pretty sober from my point of view, and

462
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 1: the like, looking for um for biosignatures often has to

463
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 1: do with looking for the kinds of say, gases in

464
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: the atmosphere that you would expect if there were a

465
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 1: photosynthesizing organism, which could just be a microbe. And that

466
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: seems like a reasonable thing to look forward for me.

467
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: But yeah, obviously, like when you're trying to think beyond that,

468
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: think like if we were to make contact with another

469
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: uh you know, type of alien from another type of planet,

470
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: what would it be. I think that we're still pretty

471
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: close to the gray aliens point of view, right, And

472
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: of course I should also again point out that this

473
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 1: is like a decade old paper at this point, so

474
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: you know, to some extent, show Stack himself may have

475
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 1: helped move the needle, but um he points out that,

476
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 1: you know, in addition to the purely organic model for

477
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 1: a more advanced alien life form, we also have to consider,

478
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 1: you know, the cybernetic what if humans and indeed more

479
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 1: advanced alien life forms have gone board to some extent,

480
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: they they've augmented. They were their organic forms with mechanical precision.

481
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: And there are multiple examples of this we might turn

482
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: to in science fiction, you know, and it's going to range.

483
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: The Hands of Steel is a good example to draw

484
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: on a different recent Weird House Cinema episode. But you

485
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: have stuff like the culture from Ian M. Banks novels,

486
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: where it's more of a you know, positive spin on

487
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: the idea, to stuff like the Borg and the Cybermen,

488
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,719
Speaker 1: you know, where everyone is majority or almost entirely machine

489
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: and with only some slim vestige of organic life in there.

490
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: You know, So everybody's a RoboCop to everybody's a grievous uh,

491
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 1: that sort of thing. Just a planet of tom Noonan's

492
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: from RoboCup two. Yeah, just screaming for their space drugs. Um.

493
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 1: But actually no, I literally do want to come back

494
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 1: to this point later on. Okay, But then there's one

495
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 1: step beyond all this, and that is the complete mechanical

496
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: replacement capped off by the birth and explosion of artificial intelligence.

497
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 1: So for this in sci fi, one can certainly turn

498
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: to the terminator model, you know, where AI emerges and

499
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 1: then it kills off everything that came before UM and

500
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: This is of course very popular in science fiction. Uh,

501
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: you know. But then another common trope is that the

502
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: machine part of a society alone survives, so the serve

503
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 1: its outlived the masters due to you know, some sort

504
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: of cataclysm or disease, what have you. But the other

505
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: way of looking at it as well is it's simply

506
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: the mechanical utterance is not something you know, extending from

507
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: the civilization. You know, it's not just an echo, but

508
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 1: it is the next phase of its evolution, that the

509
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 1: machine utterance is post organic life. Perhaps the organic aspect

510
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 1: of a civilization simply fades away and you know, given

511
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: these advancements, or perhaps to use that the culture model

512
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: from Banks's books, the organic source remains, but the predominant

513
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 1: shape of the civilization in question is entirely post organic

514
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: because with with the culture, for instance, it's in his

515
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: in his books, it's mostly the AI, it's mostly the ships.

516
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: It's mostly there, uh you know, robots and whatnot. But

517
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: the humans are still there. But they're kind of like, uh,

518
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: they're kind of a thing that is preserved for the

519
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 1: sake of of preserving it. You know, they're the remora

520
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: on the shark. Yeah. That but a but a ramora

521
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 1: that is sort of share. You know, it's almost like

522
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 1: m You know, at times there's a sense that the

523
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: robots and the AI the minds of the culture. You know,

524
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: they're they're babysitting for the humans. The humans are this

525
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: thing that is nurtured in preserved because they are the

526
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: machines passed. You know, Oh, I want so it would

527
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 1: it be kind of like if there's a country that

528
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 1: still has a ceremonial monarchy but the monarchs have no

529
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: actual political power. Yes, yes, that would be a prime example.

530
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: I think so. Showstick also points out that, given Moore's law,

531
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: the successful creation of human level AI is of course

532
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 1: going to lead to even greater AI. Quote, assuming that

533
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:40,479
Speaker 1: our own technological time scales are not grossly atypical. This

534
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: implies something important for SETI. Once any society innvinced the

535
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 1: technology that could put them in touch, once they reach

536
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: a level that's comparable to our own and become detectable

537
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: with our listening experiments, they are at most only a

538
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: few hundred years away from changing their own paradigm of

539
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: sentience to artific shoal intelligence. This is almost identical to

540
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 1: a point that's made in the Susan Schneider chapter that

541
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about in a bit. Yeah, so

542
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: he stresses that such an emergence would necessarily affect the

543
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 1: biological ancestors at all, but it makes sense that post

544
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: biological life would outlast and outperform the organic. We could

545
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 1: therefore assume that any life form we encounter in the

546
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: galaxy at large would be a machine. Okay, well, maybe

547
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: this is a good place to get into Susan Schneider's

548
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 1: chapter on this because she makes a similar argument could

549
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: cover some similar ground, and we can look at that

550
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 1: in detail now and then come back to the rest

551
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,239
Speaker 1: of her argument after that. But so this chapter is

552
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 1: by Susan Schneider, and it's from a book called The

553
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: Impact of Discovering Life Beyond Earth, edited by Stephen J. Dick,

554
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: published by Cambridge University Press in and in this book,

555
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: Schneider has a chapter called Alien Minds where she makes

556
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 1: the same argument that show Stack is making here about

557
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: the nature of minds we would be most likely to

558
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: encounter if we make contact with another civilization, and so

559
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 1: several of her main points would be the following. She

560
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: does argue that in the most likely scenario, if we

561
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,959
Speaker 1: ever encounter alien agents, it is likely that they will

562
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 1: not be biological life forms, but rather forms of super

563
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: intelligent artificial intelligence or s A I. And then she

564
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: also says, of course that intelligence can take many forms,

565
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: but there are reasons to think these machines would be

566
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 1: modeled on the intelligence of biological organisms that arose through evolution,

567
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: and you could call these agents biologically inspired super intelligent

568
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: aliens or visas b I s A. And there are

569
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: a number of arguments she makes about what the cognition

570
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 1: of those aliens would consist of, But I just want

571
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: to go back to her first argument that we would

572
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: be more likely to encounter post biological super intelligent AI

573
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: than we would to encounter biological organisms like ourselves. And

574
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 1: so there are three main points to her argument. The

575
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: first is what she calls the short window of observation,

576
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 1: and the argument goes like this, once a society has

577
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: the level of technology that would allow them to come

578
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 1: into contact with the rest of the cosmos, and this

579
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:14,719
Speaker 1: could include things like radio reception and transmission, rocketry and

580
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: so forth, at that point that society is less than

581
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: a few hundred years from changing their paradigm from biology

582
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 1: to artificial intelligence to you know, silicon based AI. And

583
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: she makes an argument for this based on previous accelerating

584
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 1: rates of computation. So you already mentioned show stack referencing

585
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 1: Moore's law. That would be in parallel to what he's

586
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: saying there. Uh so the advance of digital technology. But

587
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: she also makes reference to a thought experiment from her

588
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 1: previous work. Uh and so I just want to read

589
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: the thought experiment as she describes it, and then we

590
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: can discuss pros and cons. Schneider writes, quote, suppose it

591
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: is and being a techno file, you purchase brain enhancements

592
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: as they become readily available. First you add a mobile

593
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,719
Speaker 1: internet connection to your retina. Then you enhance your working

594
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 1: memory by adding neural circuitry. You are now officially a cyborg.

595
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 1: Now skip ahead to twenty forty. Through nanotechnological therapies and enhancements,

596
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: you are able to extend your lifespan, and as the

597
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 1: years progress, you continue to accumulate more far reaching enhancements.

598
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 1: By after several small but cumulatively profound alterations, you are

599
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: a post human. To quote philosopher Nick Bostrom, post humans

600
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 1: are possible future beings quote whose basic capacity so radically

601
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: exceed those of present humans as to be no longer

602
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: unambiguously human by our current standards. At this point, your

603
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 1: intelligence is enhanced, not just in terms of speed of

604
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 1: mental processing. You are now able to make rich connections

605
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 1: that you were not able to make before. Un Enhanced

606
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: humans or naturals seem to you to be intellectually disabled.

607
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: You have little in common with them, but as a

608
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 1: transhumanist you are supportive of their right not to enhance.

609
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,719
Speaker 1: It is now a D two hundred. For years, worldwide

610
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 1: technological and developments, including your own enhancements, have been facilitated

611
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 1: by super intelligent AI. Indeed, as Bostrom explains, quote, creating

612
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 1: super intelligence maybe the last invention that humans will ever

613
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: need to make, since super intelligences could themselves take care

614
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 1: of further scientific and technological developments over time, the slow

615
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 1: edition of better and better neural circuitry has left no

616
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 1: real intellectual difference in kind between you and super intelligent AI.

617
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 1: The only real difference between you and an AI creature

618
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: of standard design is one of origin. You were once

619
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: a natural, but you are now almost entirely engineered by technology.

620
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: You are perhaps more aptly characterized as a member of

621
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: a rather heterogeneous class of AI life forms, and so

622
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 1: her thought experiment ends there, But she's trying to sketch

623
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: how it would be plausible to imagine humans existing today

624
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: act really becoming machines little by little over time and

625
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 1: by extending their lifespans. Now, I will say, I do

626
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: think there's there's value in this thought experiment, and I'm

627
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 1: glad we're pursuing it. But I also do feel like

628
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 1: I need to flag that I am significantly more skeptical

629
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: of these types of common extrapolations about trans humanism and

630
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 1: artificial intelligence than I used to be. I think my

631
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: skepticism comes down to a suspicion that scenarios like these

632
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: make a lot of assumptions that are just taken as obvious,

633
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 1: but I think are actually somewhat speculative. For example, would

634
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 1: it actually be possible to increase human cognitive capacity with

635
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 1: neural implants that that just seems obvious. It is taken

636
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 1: as an assumption because obviously computers can do things that

637
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 1: human brains can't do, or at least they can do

638
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 1: them at speeds that human brains can't match. But what

639
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 1: if there are inherent biological throttles or gates on consciousness

640
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 1: and cognition in brains that make the neural cyborg not

641
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: much smarter than a human with access to a computer.

642
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 1: What if there's just something physically about the properties of

643
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 1: brains that doesn't allow you to augment them with technology

644
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 1: like this, It just doesn't work. Or what if becoming

645
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: a neural cyborg with computer enhanced cognition is actually a

646
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 1: subjectively dreadful, miserable experience, and it turns out that once

647
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 1: people have tried it and reported on what it's like,

648
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 1: nobody wants to do it because it feels awful. Yeah,

649
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 1: I'm like, I'm thinking, like what you have, some sort

650
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 1: of an upgrade you received made it possible for you

651
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 1: to say, well, let's say, be better at personal finance.

652
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: But as a result, that means that there is constantly

653
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 1: an additional background narrative in your brain and your consciousness

654
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 1: about your personal finances. And maybe that's good for for

655
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,320
Speaker 1: just to you know, your your your pocketbook and your investments,

656
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 1: but ultimately maybe it sucks for life, you know, because

657
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 1: it's this is not the sort of balance of inattention

658
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 1: that makes life worth living or makes it like like

659
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 1: it was before like it. It changes you to such

660
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: an extent that you want to go back you were,

661
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 1: Like part of the joy of life is maybe not

662
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 1: thinking about personal finance all the time. Yeah, what if

663
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: part of what makes it fun to be a human

664
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 1: is not being a computer. And if you the more

665
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 1: you make your brain into a neural cyborg, the more

666
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 1: miserable your life becomes you and you desperately seek to regress. Yeah.

667
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: Another thing, what if consciousness is just inherently non transferable

668
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 1: to machinery. I don't know this is the case. Some

669
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 1: people do make this argument, and I have no reason

670
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 1: to assume this is true. But I also have no

671
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 1: reason to assume the opposite. There's no reason to assume

672
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,319
Speaker 1: that you can actually upload your mind to any kind

673
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 1: of computer substrate. I think this is just a big

674
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 1: question mark. We just don't know if such a thing

675
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 1: as possible. Yeah, I mean, I tend to believe at

676
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: this point that we could create something that acts like us.

677
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 1: You can create something that is essentially like the the

678
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 1: machine avatar of who we were, or who we thought

679
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 1: we were, who we want to be thought of after

680
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 1: the fact. But to the point, like is that I

681
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: think when you start asking more specific questions about like

682
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: is that us? Then? I don't know, I feel like

683
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: it isn't is it? Could it be conscious at all?

684
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 1: Even if it could be conscious, is there any reason

685
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: to believe that you would experience it as a conscious

686
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 1: continuation of your previous mind? Or would it just be

687
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,839
Speaker 1: a conscious copy of you? Yeah? Or I mean when

688
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 1: you start asking questions like that and then you get

689
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 1: into questions of like, well, and who I am now?

690
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: Is this really a continuation of who I was five

691
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: years ago? You know? I mean, you start seeing all

692
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: the flaws in this um narrative of self and identity,

693
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 1: and maybe it becomes maybe that's the thing. Maybe we

694
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 1: reach a kind of we reach a point where we

695
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: realized none of it is real, Like there is no

696
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: real continuation of the self, and therefore why not create

697
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: like three different machine avatars of my self and have

698
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: them continue my legacy for me? I just want to

699
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 1: mention a few other questions that just popped into my

700
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 1: mind this morning. Uh, what if there are actually hard

701
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 1: limits on certain kinds of intelligence, whether you're talking about

702
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 1: a biological brain or a computer. What if certain types

703
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 1: of complex problem solving within a coherent agent system, meaning like,

704
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: you know, a single sort of mental workspace that always,

705
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 1: that is coherent and communicates with every part of itself.

706
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: What if there are limits on what kind of intelligence

707
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: can happen in an agent system like that or different thing.

708
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 1: What if biological organisms in general, even across the galaxy,

709
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: have an overwhelming tendency to revolt against the cultural transition

710
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: to machine life and will always or almost always end

711
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 1: up engaging in something like Frank Herbert's but Larry and Jihad,

712
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: you know, where you shall not make a machine in

713
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 1: the image of a human brain. Yeah, yeah, you want

714
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: to end up moving towards that sort of Star Wars

715
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,320
Speaker 1: model where yeah, you have all these advanced machines everywhere,

716
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 1: but they're only working as servants you know there, Uh,

717
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 1: with a few exceptions that I guess kind of prove

718
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 1: the rule in that universe. So anyway, literally hundreds of

719
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 1: questions like this I think I could list, and they

720
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 1: start coming to mind when I think about it. And

721
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 1: while I don't assume that any of them are strong

722
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 1: enough to completely disable the trans humanist proposition, I also

723
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 1: wonder if some trans humanist and super intelligence thinking is

724
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 1: too quick to hand wave past these kinds of questions.

725
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 1: But like I said earlier, I do think this type

726
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 1: of scenario that Schneider is talking about is plausible enough

727
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: to entertain as a thought experiment, So I want to

728
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 1: keep going with it. And one thing I will say

729
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 1: in favor of of her argument is that, at least intuitively,

730
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:51,359
Speaker 1: I think her timeline is reasonable, meaning that I think

731
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: if it is possible to create an AI super intelligence

732
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 1: and that humans or their biological alien counterparts do at

733
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 1: some point merge with or fade into that machine AI superintelligence,

734
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 1: I don't see why it would take more than a

735
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 1: few hundred years after the invention of computers basically for

736
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 1: that to happen. And even if it took tens of

737
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 1: thousands of years, I think Schneider's point on this first

738
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,439
Speaker 1: point she's making is basically correct. The time between when

739
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 1: a species starts technologically interacting with the universe beyond its

740
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 1: home planet and when it becomes dominated by post biological intelligence,

741
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 1: if this is possible, that that time gap seems very

742
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 1: small and vanishingly small compared to the lifespan of a

743
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 1: planetary biosphere. Yeah, so you come back to that scenario

744
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 1: that show Stack was talking about, where once you're detectable,

745
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: it's just a matter of time before the machine administration

746
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 1: moves in. So one instantly think that you can imagine

747
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 1: the the the aliens out there, if they're listening in

748
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 1: on this, they're like, well, should we contact them now?

749
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 1: They're like, well, no, they're they're about to change administration,

750
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,879
Speaker 1: Like the humans in charge now are about to hand

751
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: off in relatively little time. From our standpoint, two machines

752
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 1: that will be it'll be just easier to communicate with

753
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,359
Speaker 1: those machines and we'll we'll there'll be a lot more

754
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 1: pleasant to deal with as opposed to these organic beings.

755
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, I would say I'm more bullish on the

756
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:21,479
Speaker 1: second half of Schneider's proposition here than the first half.

757
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if the age of machines is coming,

758
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 1: that's a big question mark for me, but I will

759
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 1: agree that if it's coming, it's coming very fast, yes,

760
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 1: and if it is coming, we welcome our machine over lords.

761
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,399
Speaker 1: But anyway, that that was all just Schneider's first point

762
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,839
Speaker 1: about the short window of observation. A couple of other

763
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 1: points that are quicker to make. The second one that

764
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 1: she makes is the greater age of alien civilizations. So

765
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 1: here she cites some pre existing statistical work making the

766
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:51,879
Speaker 1: point that and I think show Stack made this point

767
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: as well. If you assume a random distribution of biological

768
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 1: evolution across the galaxy, most alien civilizations should be expected

769
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 1: to be millions or billions of years older than us.

770
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:07,320
Speaker 1: So either there's something very special and rare about Earth life,

771
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: or we're one of many planets with with with powerful

772
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 1: intelligence and civilization. And if we are, we we should

773
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 1: expect to be on the young side of that equation.

774
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 1: So if you couple this with the previous points, she argues,

775
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 1: you start getting toward an interesting conclusion. Again, these two

776
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 1: points are on average, we should assume that other alien

777
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 1: civilizations have been around for millions or billions of years,

778
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 1: and on average alien civilizations transform themselves into post biological

779
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:39,919
Speaker 1: superintelligence is very fast. There's a very short window of uh,

780
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: technological civilizations that are still biological in nature. And so

781
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 1: if you put those things together, you should expect, Yeah,

782
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 1: if we're meeting something, it's probably post biological. And I

783
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:52,800
Speaker 1: will say as far as my reaction, again, I have

784
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: lodged my moderate skepticism about the trans humanist and AI extrapolations,

785
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 1: mind uploading and so forth. But I followed the argument

786
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 1: so far. Her third point, and I think this is

787
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 1: an interesting one. She says silicon is a better medium

788
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 1: for intelligence, at least better than carbon, and this one

789
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 1: is interesting. Basically, Schneider argues that carbon based life forms

790
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 1: will recognize the inherent physical advantages in transferring themselves into

791
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: silicon based machines. Again, you know, flag my skepticism about

792
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 1: mind uploading, but if it's possible, okay, I follow the argument.

793
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 1: She writes, quote, silicon appears to be a better medium

794
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 1: for information processing than the brain itself. Neurons reach a

795
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 1: peak speed of about two hundred hurts, which is seven

796
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: orders of magnitude slower than current microprocessors. While the brain

797
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 1: can compensate for some of this with massive parallelism features

798
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 1: such as hubs and so on, crucial mental capacity such

799
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 1: as attention rely on cereal processing, which is incredibly slow

800
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:58,280
Speaker 1: and has a maximum capacity of about seven manageable chunks.

801
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 1: I did not follow up on what she means by

802
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 1: chunks there, but she cites Miller from the ninety six

803
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 1: This must be a computational science paper. She goes on

804
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 1: further the number of neurons in a human brain is

805
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: limited by cranial volume and metabolism, but computers can occupy

806
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 1: entire buildings or cities, and can even be remotely connected

807
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:20,479
Speaker 1: across the globe. Of course, the human brain is far

808
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 1: more intelligent than any modern computer, but intelligent machines can

809
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 1: in principle be constructed by reverse engineering the brain and

810
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 1: improving upon its algorithms. You know this. This reminds me

811
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 1: how in in in Banks's culture books, their parts where

812
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 1: the machines are working with humans, because you have human

813
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 1: characters that are playing an important role, because that that

814
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: makes it an interesting story. Um. But the machines, of

815
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 1: course are communicating with each other. The minds are communicating

816
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 1: with each other. It just blindingly fast speeds. And then

817
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 1: when they need to communicate with an organic being, it

818
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,800
Speaker 1: just like it's just slow as Christmas, you know, it

819
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 1: just drags everything to a halt basically for them. Yeah,

820
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,399
Speaker 1: that's funny, And it's also funny this last comment she makes,

821
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: I think is interesting about the cutthroat design idea, where

822
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 1: an intelligent machine could just say like, oh, I could

823
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 1: make myself better than a brain just by figuring out

824
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 1: how brains work reverse engineering that making myself into a

825
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 1: brain and then upgrading myself. But anyway, altogether, Schneider's thinks

826
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 1: that these points should convince us that alien civilizations that

827
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: we encounter are way more likely to be post biological

828
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 1: machines super intelligent aies than they are to be biological

829
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: organisms made of meat. And Schneider also makes one point

830
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 1: that I think is very good if it's possible to

831
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: become a post biological super intelligence, but not a common

832
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 1: fate for all intelligent alien species. So maybe not all

833
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: alien civilizations go this direction. The ones we encounter are

834
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 1: still more likely to be the ones that do become

835
00:46:55,920 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 1: post biological super intelligent machines, because the beings will be

836
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 1: better at space travel and better at spreading across the galaxy.

837
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,240
Speaker 1: Think about the fact that they have no biological risks

838
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 1: from space travel like we do. Yeah, show Stack gets

839
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 1: to this point as well, that yeah, there would still

840
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 1: be risks. Space is still incredibly dangerous, but the bio

841
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 1: risks would be effectively removed. And then since you would

842
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 1: uh as a machine intelligence, you would be effectively immortal

843
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 1: um in ways that in ways that even a in

844
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,479
Speaker 1: a you know, a very long living biological organism would

845
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 1: not um All trips would be the same distance, all

846
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 1: trips would have the same duration, because time kind of

847
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: loses all meaning. If it takes you a hundred years,

848
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 1: a thousand years, uh, you know, several thousand years to

849
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: reach the place you're going, that kind of loses its importance.

850
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 1: If there is no endpoint to your existence. Ye, Rob

851
00:47:53,239 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 1: nine thousand does not care. Yeah, alright. So in dealing

852
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 1: with this question of post biologic logical intelligence and potentially

853
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 1: encountering post biological intelligence, one of the big questions, of course,

854
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: is well, what would it mean for us? What would

855
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:18,760
Speaker 1: what would the relationship be? What would a post biological

856
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 1: civilization want? And I guess the first way to tackle

857
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: that is to sort of look at the precursor, what

858
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:30,760
Speaker 1: does a biological civilization want? Well, as a Stephen Hawking

859
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 1: and many others have pointed out, if we're to use

860
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 1: our only model of intelligent life that we have, which

861
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 1: is us, then obviously biological aliens would be interested in

862
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 1: things like domination, resource acquisition, possibly religious convergence. Or if

863
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,399
Speaker 1: we were to tie the Simpsons into all of this, uh,

864
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:52,760
Speaker 1: you know, we could think to the citizen king Treehouse

865
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 1: of Horror segment. They might be interested and interested in

866
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 1: us merely in order to point a giant space laser

867
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 1: at another planet. So resources, yes, but also maybe strategic

868
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 1: location in some greater interstellar conflict. I just had an

869
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 1: idea that I don't know if it makes any sense,

870
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 1: but I was thinking about some of the some of

871
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 1: the horrors of colonialism on Earth. We're not just about

872
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 1: the extraction of resources from the colony, but also about

873
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 1: the acquisition of customers within a colony for the businesses

874
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 1: in the in the home country. And I wonder could

875
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 1: there be some kind of comparison to this in in

876
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 1: a galactic sense, like, uh, could be possible that aliens

877
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 1: would want to initiate contact with Earth in order to

878
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 1: acquire some analogy to customers buyers for their products. Oh my, uh,

879
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 1: nothing come into mind. But I'm sure this, this has

880
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 1: got to have been This has had to have been

881
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 1: explored in in science fiction, especially like like Reagan era

882
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 1: sci fi. You know, that's a that's commenting on capitalism

883
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 1: and so forth. Like In fact, she like surely Philip K.

884
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 1: Dick explored the this idea a little home that was

885
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:03,359
Speaker 1: up his alley. I can't think of one but that

886
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:05,359
Speaker 1: that would be an amazing Philip K. Dick theme. I'm

887
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 1: sure he did it. Yeah, so again, you know, if

888
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 1: we only have to have our own intelligence really to

889
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 1: base most of this off on as a model, but uh,

890
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 1: this would it would seem to present a rather dark scenario.

891
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:21,320
Speaker 1: Though certainly biological aliens could be different. You know, they

892
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 1: could they could just want to be our friends. They

893
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 1: could want it that they could have, you know, they

894
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:29,479
Speaker 1: could come in peace, as they say. I mean Stephen Hawking, Yeah,

895
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,880
Speaker 1: he was very cautious about the idea of ct He

896
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 1: was like, we don't we don't want anything to do

897
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 1: with other aliens in the galaxy because the chances are

898
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 1: it would not go well for us. But people who

899
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:44,400
Speaker 1: are involved in set itself in CETI type research, it

900
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 1: seems to be more often, I mean, I probably there's

901
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 1: a selection effect by nature of the fact that they

902
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 1: are part of this effort to reach out and establish

903
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:56,839
Speaker 1: contact with other civilizations at least detect their presence. There

904
00:50:56,840 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 1: seems to be more optimism in the CETI crowd to me, like, yeah,

905
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 1: less a less of an automatic assumption that the way

906
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 1: aliens view us would be would be extractive. And you know,

907
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 1: more of an idea that uh, an alien that as

908
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:14,359
Speaker 1: a civilization progresses towards the point where it can reach

909
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 1: out into the cosmos. It also maybe matures like it.

910
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:20,319
Speaker 1: It reaches its own form of humanism and maybe that

911
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 1: extends beyond its own species. Yeah, and I guess too.

912
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 1: There's also the argument it's kind of like moving into

913
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 1: a new neighborhood. Do you want to say hi to

914
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,800
Speaker 1: your new neighbors, uh, you know, the first couple of weeks,

915
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 1: or do you want to wait until there's a conflict

916
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: you know? Uh, you know, what do you want? What

917
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 1: do you want your first communication going to be to be?

918
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 1: Because non detection is not a long term possibility. You know,

919
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 1: they're going to see you leaving your house at some

920
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 1: point you're gonna have that awkward moment where do you

921
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 1: make eye contact and then you're like, oh, yeah, we

922
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: never actually said hi to each other, you know. So,

923
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 1: you know a lot of this concerns biological life. These

924
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 1: questions and some of these ideas don't entirely disappear when

925
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:02,800
Speaker 1: we consider uh, post biological life. But again, the question

926
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 1: is what about alien AI? What would a post biological

927
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 1: species want with us, what would they, as show stack

928
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:14,720
Speaker 1: points puts it, what would they quote find interesting to do? Um,

929
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 1: which I like. I like the way of pointing that out.

930
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: It's like it's it s to a certain extent, it

931
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 1: goes beyond like goals and things that it needs, like

932
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 1: what what does it do with its time? Like? What

933
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 1: is its purpose? And show stack points out that sci

934
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:30,479
Speaker 1: Fi has certainly explored this topic, but he thinks only

935
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:34,359
Speaker 1: three things seem plausible enough to consider discussion. So, first

936
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 1: of all, he argues that since quote high speed computation

937
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 1: requires compact configuration, the machines would likely remain localized and

938
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 1: this would better benefit you know, swarm or shared processing,

939
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 1: so they wouldn't be spread out over vast distances. They

940
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 1: might be localized into an area only thousands of light

941
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 1: years across. So if you're imagining you know, something like,

942
00:52:56,360 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 1: uh that the post biological necrons from war or forty,

943
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: you know that they just want to spread out all

944
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 1: over the galaxy and take it over like that wouldn't

945
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 1: make as much sense because they want to maintain maximum uh,

946
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 1: you know, computational power, So they're going to stick to

947
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 1: their own kingdom. Coming back to Susan Schneider, she argues

948
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 1: that biologically inspired super intelligences would would tend to have

949
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:25,840
Speaker 1: one or more what she calls global workspaces, And I

950
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:27,799
Speaker 1: actually want to read her quote on this because I

951
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,880
Speaker 1: thought this was interesting. She says, when you search for

952
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 1: a fact or concentrate on something, your brain grants that

953
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 1: sensory or cognitive content access to a quote global workspace,

954
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:42,400
Speaker 1: where the information is broadcast to attentional and working memory

955
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 1: systems for more concentrated processing, as well as to the

956
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:50,440
Speaker 1: massively parallel channels in the brain. The global workspace operates

957
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 1: as a singular place when important information from the senses

958
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 1: is considered in tandem, so that the creature can make

959
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 1: all things considered judgments and act intelligently in light of

960
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 1: all the facts at its disposal. In general, it would

961
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 1: be inefficient to have a sense or cognitive capacity that

962
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 1: was not integrated with the others, because the information from

963
00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 1: this sense or cognitive capacity would be unable to figure

964
00:54:16,040 --> 00:54:19,239
Speaker 1: in predictions and plans based on an assessment of all

965
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 1: the available information. And this comes into play here because

966
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: it seems like a civilization based on a super intelligent

967
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:28,480
Speaker 1: AI UH if it's spread itself too far, it would

968
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 1: become impossible to maintain a global workspace at speed. It

969
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 1: would start having information that was not shared, and that

970
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 1: would result in inefficiencies. Yeah, that that lines up, But

971
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 1: I think goather well with this. Now. Now, the second

972
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:45,240
Speaker 1: point that Stack makes is that given the very short

973
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 1: time scale for improvement, uh, it would be winner takes all.

974
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:52,800
Speaker 1: The first machine society to rise would dominate at least

975
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 1: within a certain volume of space, you know. Going back

976
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 1: to point number one. Um. Now, he argues that there

977
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 1: there could be a little wiggle room for some machine

978
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 1: civilizations to overtake elder civilizations. Um. But that a sufficiently

979
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:11,919
Speaker 1: advanced machine civilization could rule its fiefdom indefinitely. Um uh Now,

980
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:14,919
Speaker 1: But but I wonder if if another way of looking

981
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:16,520
Speaker 1: at this sort of thing would be, you know, a

982
00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:20,280
Speaker 1: resulting confederacy of machine culture is a kind of multicultural

983
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:23,360
Speaker 1: machine super civilization where maybe you have the you know,

984
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: the one older, more advanced, and you know, unconquerable, um,

985
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:30,960
Speaker 1: machine culture, but then it ends up absorbing other ones

986
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 1: that are part of it, that have some purpose or

987
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 1: role within the machine whole, but are not like the

988
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:42,160
Speaker 1: driving force. Kind of like subservient machine cultures, I guess.

989
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:46,480
Speaker 1: And then number three, even for machines, he points out

990
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 1: space is dangerous and our Winnian selection would take place. Quote,

991
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 1: if a machine exists now, it's because its mode of

992
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: existence has kept this device from natural disaster, or possibly

993
00:55:57,239 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 1: even from deliberate disaster. If such a phenomen gonna exists

994
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 1: for machines, perhaps it makes a lot of copies, or

995
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 1: at least a few copies, updating as necessary. It does

996
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:11,400
Speaker 1: something to withstand inevitable catastrophe. Yeah, that's very interesting. I

997
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 1: mean to pick up on this. There's no reason to

998
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:18,960
Speaker 1: say that biological evolution is a process, that is, that

999
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 1: is inherently tethered only to carbon based organisms that reproduce,

1000
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:26,720
Speaker 1: you know, that that have genetic code based on DNA,

1001
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:30,359
Speaker 1: anything that's subject to survival and reproduction. And I would

1002
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:33,680
Speaker 1: guess that machines, you know, computational machines, would in some

1003
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:36,399
Speaker 1: way be subject to survival and reproduction. They can make

1004
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 1: copies of themselves, Uh, they can iterate their code. That

1005
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 1: it seems like those things would be subject to a

1006
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:46,800
Speaker 1: form of natural selection. Though. The interesting thing there would be,

1007
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 1: I guess, would would it be useful to think about

1008
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:54,439
Speaker 1: their code in terms of something like genes, because of course,

1009
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:59,239
Speaker 1: you know, genes within biological organisms can have gambits to

1010
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:02,239
Speaker 1: survive on their own regardless of the success of the

1011
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:05,359
Speaker 1: overall organism. Right Like, if an individual gene in your

1012
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:07,720
Speaker 1: body figures out a way to make lots of copies

1013
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,839
Speaker 1: of itself without regard to the health of its you know,

1014
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 1: to to the health of the body as a whole,

1015
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 1: it will do that. You know. It's it's the genes

1016
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 1: just trying to get out there. I wonder if you

1017
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,840
Speaker 1: could look at individual pieces of I don't know what

1018
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 1: code or nodes or processing functions within a machine intelligence

1019
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 1: that would behave in the same way. Yeah. Yeah, So

1020
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:31,400
Speaker 1: it seems like that idea you could you could come

1021
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 1: up with a concept where a machine civilization would have

1022
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 1: a tendency to colonize new areas, you know, because it

1023
00:57:40,040 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 1: would give itself room to uh to copy itself. Uh.

1024
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 1: And then of course you have to think about the

1025
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 1: constraints about processing speed. It's that run you know, having

1026
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 1: you know, sticking to a local domain. But maybe that

1027
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 1: would allow for some level level of mechanical budding to

1028
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 1: take place. Yeah, maybe cutting off pieces of itself would

1029
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 1: actually make it more resilient, to say, infection by viral

1030
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:09,240
Speaker 1: bits of code. Yeah, well, you know, thinking about it

1031
00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:11,600
Speaker 1: even more now, So say say you have this mechanical

1032
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 1: supercivilization and it's again, is staying within a certain area? Well,

1033
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:18,920
Speaker 1: if it is, if it definitely, if it wants to survive,

1034
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 1: if that is like a driving force in it, that

1035
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:24,080
Speaker 1: is like just coded into it maybe from its biological

1036
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:30,000
Speaker 1: you know, elder creators, then then perhaps copying itself not

1037
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:33,600
Speaker 1: only within its realm, but in other realms like that

1038
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 1: is one way to try and survive, not only like

1039
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 1: nearby rooms, maybe far flung realms, you know, uh, you know,

1040
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 1: to get outside of not only this star system, but

1041
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 1: this system of systems, to get outside of the galaxy

1042
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 1: if possible. That's interesting. Okay, folks, this is one of

1043
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: those episodes that went very long, and we have decided

1044
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:56,440
Speaker 1: it is best to divide this talk in two parts.

1045
00:58:56,440 --> 00:58:58,760
Speaker 1: So we're gonna have to cut part one right here,

1046
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 1: but come back can join us on Thursday for the

1047
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 1: continuation of our discussion in Art two. In the meantime,

1048
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:06,720
Speaker 1: if you would like to check out other episodes of

1049
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 1: Stuff to Blow your mind, you know, where to find

1050
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:10,480
Speaker 1: them in the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast feed

1051
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 1: and you'll get that wherever you find your podcast, wherever

1052
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 1: that happens to be if the platform gives you the

1053
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:17,960
Speaker 1: ability to do so. Just make sure you rate, review,

1054
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 1: and subscribe. Huge thanks as always to our excellent audio

1055
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 1: producer Seth Nicholas Johnson. If you would like to get

1056
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 1: in touch with us with feedback on this episode or

1057
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,160
Speaker 1: any other, to suggest a topic for the future, just

1058
00:59:29,200 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: to say hello, you can email us at contact at

1059
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:42,000
Speaker 1: stuff to Blow your Mind dot com. Stuff to Blow

1060
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 1: Your Mind is production of I Heart Radio. For more

1061
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,200
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1062
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:50,080
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1063
01:00:00,320 --> 01:00:03,800
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