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Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a little Christmas drama.

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Speaker 1: I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westleying podcast studio

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Speaker 1: with my friend Cynthia Freeland. And the drama that I'm

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Speaker 1: referring to is not whether I can keep the twelve

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Speaker 1: straight winning weeks going?

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Speaker 2: Can we know you can?

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Speaker 1: Thirteen? No, the drama is can we get Cynthia to

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Speaker 1: a plane on Christmas Eve? On time? The seer in laws?

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Speaker 2: We'll find out, which means we got to find We're fine.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna be totally fine.

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Speaker 1: So if you're listening to this, it's probably the day

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Speaker 1: after Christmas or sometime over the weekend, and we hope

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Speaker 1: you had a great holiday. This is the show where

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Speaker 1: we pick three games against the spread each and every week.

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Speaker 1: And yes, as I mentioned, I kept the winning streak

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Speaker 1: going last week. Shout out to the Chargers for coming

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Speaker 1: through for me. And let's move on to the seventeen picks.

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Speaker 1: Thirty one and good on the season. So good. I

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Speaker 1: can't remember even what my other winning pick was, but

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Speaker 1: who cares. Let's get to Cynthia's winning picks this week.

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Speaker 1: What is your first one?

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Speaker 2: I want to start off with a Saturday game, because

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Speaker 2: games of consequence feel like better opportunities to pick, especially

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Speaker 2: if you're looking against the spread. So the very first one,

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Speaker 2: the one where we you know, know who's playing at

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Speaker 2: least at the quarterback position presumably, so ultimately I think

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Speaker 2: that the Texans take care of business and have the

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Speaker 2: upset here at SOFI Stadium, Rainy, there's a tornado warning

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Speaker 2: here in South the Colt crazy stuff going on here,

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Speaker 2: including the fact that I still think that when it

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Speaker 2: comes down to which team will be able to exact

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Speaker 2: their will on the other team's offense more efficiently and effectively.

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Speaker 2: I mean, between Daniel Hunter and you know, Will Anderson Junior,

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Speaker 2: it's just going to be a lot of pressure and

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Speaker 2: a lot of justin Herbert's just going to have to

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Speaker 2: contend with a lot, which is something he's been doing

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Speaker 2: all season. However, I think Houston has the edge in

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Speaker 2: this one.

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Speaker 1: I'm torn on this one. As you know, we tape

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Speaker 1: their show game debut, which if you're curious, you can

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Speaker 1: always check out on YouTube. We appreciate everyone, yes, who

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Speaker 1: watches this show on YouTube. Everyone should also be subscribing

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Speaker 1: and checking out Numbers Games starring Cynthia Freeland, but it's

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Speaker 1: put up on the NFL feed as our NFL pick. Sure,

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Speaker 1: that's every game, and I pick up the Chargers, but

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Speaker 1: I don't feel strong about this one. And certainly last

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Speaker 1: year's playoff game has you worried that the matchup for

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Speaker 1: the Chargers is just a bad one. And I was

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Speaker 1: a little surprised at actually that they were favored in this.

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Speaker 2: Do you know that Will Anderson Junior on third down

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Speaker 2: has twelve more pressures than the next closest player, whose

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Speaker 2: name is Miles Garrett, just saying.

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Speaker 1: That's a forty three good call? And I know you

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Speaker 1: know you have respect for DVOA, you trust your model more,

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Speaker 1: but that they have a pretty big difference between these

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Speaker 1: two teams, So they would support you number five team

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Speaker 1: in the law, and.

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Speaker 2: They support me. I like that.

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Speaker 1: Yes, is the Texas and the Chargers down there at

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Speaker 1: fourteen because their offense is so inconsistent. That was a

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Speaker 1: stay away from me A game I am going to pick.

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Speaker 1: I really like four games this week, and so I'm struggling.

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Speaker 1: I kind of want you to pick one of them

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Speaker 1: and then we'll see it. We'll see if that actually happened. No,

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Speaker 1: I mean and then it'll just like make it out

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Speaker 1: of the way for me. Yeah, I hate doing this

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Speaker 1: because as we're taping, I'm not sure who's starting at

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Speaker 1: quarterback for the Packers or the Ravens for sure, But

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Speaker 1: the reason I'm comfortable taking it, and right now it's

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Speaker 1: three points. It could certainly raise if it looks like

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Speaker 1: it's going to be snoopont Ley versus Jordan Love, which

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Speaker 1: my gut tells me is the most likely outcome, but

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Speaker 1: it could be Lamar Jackson versus Jordan Love, it could

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Speaker 1: be Malik Wills. It doesn't matter. The Packers are going

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Speaker 1: to cover this number no matter what it is. I

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Speaker 1: just think that the Ravens are a dead team walking.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about the Bucks a little later,

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Speaker 1: but they're in the same position for me, okay, at

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Speaker 1: least this week. I have you ever heard of a

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Speaker 1: phrase called like a death wish, you know, like someone

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Speaker 1: who's almost going through like they almost have a death.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes teams get a death wish and it somehow comes

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Speaker 1: out in the form of what happens in fourth quarters

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Speaker 1: of games, Like suddenly Zay Flowers fumbles the ball and

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Speaker 1: the defense starts giving up big plays when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the Ravens, I just don't think this is a

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Speaker 1: good team. And I think the Packers lost two brutal

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Speaker 1: games where they played pretty well back to back, but

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Speaker 1: I think they're ultimately a much better team. And I

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Speaker 1: just think these two teams are in different classes, and

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Speaker 1: I think the defense can give the Ravens some problems,

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Speaker 1: you know, send some different looks, but it's really about

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Speaker 1: the offense of the Packers that even if it's Malik Willis,

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Speaker 1: I think it can get a lot done on the

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Speaker 1: ground and just beat this Ravens team and kind of

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Speaker 1: put them out of their misery on Saturday night clinch

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Speaker 1: a playoff spot for themselves and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, I think it's very interesting. I'm with

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Speaker 2: you on the entire thing. And I'll add that the

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Speaker 2: Ravens are only getting the fourth lowest pressure rate, meaning

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Speaker 2: they're you know, very not consistent at getting pressure on

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Speaker 2: any quarterback. Malik Willis played admirably in the loss great

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Speaker 2: the Bear. So it's not like, I mean it's a

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Speaker 2: step down, of course, because Jordan loves in a diff

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Speaker 2: front class, but like it's not this massive step down

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Speaker 2: where you're like Oh no, all hope is lost, not

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Speaker 2: even not even.

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Speaker 1: You just reminded me who my other right pick was

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Speaker 1: last week. Fortunately it was against your line. Oh, I

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Speaker 1: don't care, just the Steeler. Remember I said, it seems

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Speaker 1: like I had a seven point You also had the

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Speaker 1: Steelers cover.

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Speaker 2: I had the Steelers covering this spread. I just had

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Speaker 2: the Lions winning the game.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to your second pick.

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Speaker 2: Okay, my second pick. What's the number you're seeing for

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Speaker 2: San Francisco on Sunday night?

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Speaker 1: Three? Okay?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, San Francisco covers that number. Okay, I think the

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Speaker 2: night is that one? Or four?

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Speaker 1: No?

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Speaker 2: Oh wow, okay, I'm trying to guess you're four based

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Speaker 2: on knowing who you picked it every game. Didn't pick it?

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Speaker 1: Uh. I do like the forty nine ers in that

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Speaker 1: game if I had to take one, but you know

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Speaker 1: I respect them both enough I stayed away. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: It's not that I don't like the Bears. I just

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Speaker 2: think when one team's massive strength is to run the

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Speaker 2: football or to create the there are approximating runs with

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Speaker 2: some of the stuff they do. With Christian McCaffrey and

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Speaker 2: his ability to keep things on the ground and not

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Speaker 2: when you're so turnover reliant, like if you look at

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Speaker 2: point differential, which isn't the old only measure of something

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Speaker 2: someone's success, Like the Bears are at like thirty three points,

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Speaker 2: so meaning they're winning very close games. We get it,

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Speaker 2: but they're also turnover reliant. When you're so turnover reliant

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Speaker 2: and you're playing Kyle Shanahan the week after he just

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Speaker 2: played and beat another Shanahan Tree guy, I just think

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Speaker 2: he's gonna sit there and be like, okay, because that

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Speaker 2: is talk about a watching film that's really relevant to

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Speaker 2: what you do. That's the same fundamental offense as the

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Speaker 2: Green Bay Packers, right, different people, different strengths and weaknesses,

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Speaker 2: but the same ideas and concepts, the same tree. So

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Speaker 2: I just I have struggled to find a way for

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Speaker 2: them to keep that going unless they get some crazy

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Speaker 2: amount of turnovers.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think that happens. I've loved brock Perdy's

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Speaker 1: decision making lately.

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Speaker 2: I think he's certain dimes too as you watch it

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Speaker 2: are like who threw that spiral?

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Speaker 1: He did?

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Speaker 2: Joe Joe Montana.

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Speaker 1: Complete some highly difficulty throws, but sometimes he almost tries

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Speaker 1: too many, and I think he's really had it dialed

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Speaker 1: in what to go for and not to and I

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Speaker 1: just think that offense is a wagon. So I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: I like that pick. This was just a week, you

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Speaker 1: know how Last week I was like, yeah, man, there's

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Speaker 1: only one game I really love to this game. This

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Speaker 1: week I loved like five and so that was one

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Speaker 1: of my loves. That was one of my likes. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to another love, okay, because if it was actually,

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Speaker 1: if it was my money, what is what is your

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Speaker 1: third pick gonna be? I want to see if it's

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Speaker 1: one of mine, so then you can just.

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Speaker 2: Take I just pointed it, so I don't sure this one, Okay,

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Speaker 2: that was gonna be one of mine, so I will

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Speaker 2: I will let you take that.

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Speaker 1: That's perfect. Let's let's go to the Rams, okay. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to say that the Rams are gonna

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Speaker 1: try harder because they lost, although the Sean McVay has

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Speaker 1: been saying that he's just like, this is gonna make

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Speaker 1: us stronger. This lost, I can see it. Here's what

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Speaker 1: else is going to make you stronger? Having extra rest

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Speaker 1: another day, having extra rest against the Atlanta Falcons, three

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Speaker 1: days extra rest. At this time of year, I think

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Speaker 1: it's a thing, and then playing the Atlanta Falcons, that's

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Speaker 1: the thing. You just put up five hundred and eighty

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Speaker 1: yards on the Seattle Seahawks defense, and now you're gonna

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Speaker 1: go up against Raheem Morris, someone you're very familiar with,

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Speaker 1: who really has only had good games this year defensively

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Speaker 1: when he can confuse the other opponent, when they can

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Speaker 1: send all sorts of blitzes and they get really creative.

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Speaker 1: Just try it against Matthew Stafford. He's seen it all before.

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Speaker 1: Sean McVay kind of knows what's coming. And they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have perfect conditions there in the Dome, not much of

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Speaker 1: a home field advantage. I don't believe in Atlanta and

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Speaker 1: a team that really needs to win the game, and

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Speaker 1: I think they'd love to make a statement and like

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Speaker 1: rest guys in the fourth quarter of this game. And

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Speaker 1: that's how good I think that they are. So good

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Speaker 1: luck trying to convince him. And also it's on Monday night,

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Speaker 1: little MVP magic here. And on the flip side, it's

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Speaker 1: like Kirk Cousins has been good, but he's only been

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Speaker 1: good when he hasn't faced much much pressure, and I

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Speaker 1: think he will face some pressure, so they're seven and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorites. I thought it'd be a little more. Frankly,

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Speaker 1: I just I don't think the Falcons. I know they've

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Speaker 1: won six games and they're not one of the worst

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Speaker 1: teams in the league or anything. But at this point

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Speaker 1: in the season, I would take ten for the Rams

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Speaker 1: and feel fine about it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I think that could get bit up too,

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Speaker 2: and I'd be comfortable with it, all right. My last

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Speaker 2: one New England, Yes.

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Speaker 1: That was one where like if it was actually we're

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Speaker 1: not allowed to bet not and I love that for us,

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Speaker 1: although this year it would have been profitable for me.

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Speaker 1: But if it was actually my money, I think I

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Speaker 1: would maybe go with that. But it didn't seem as

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Speaker 1: interesting to me. It almost just seemed seemed too weaky.

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Speaker 2: What would you bid it up?

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Speaker 1: Too?

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Speaker 2: So like where is it? What are you seeing?

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Speaker 1: Like sixteen and a half? It's at thirteen and a

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Speaker 1: half right now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so sub fourteen that's crazy. So to me, I

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Speaker 2: would have bit it up probably sixteen something that would

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Speaker 2: be more comfortable like that. Like I so when you

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Speaker 2: see the differential of three points like tasty.

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Speaker 1: Especially for your conservative model, and I have a number

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Speaker 1: that big yes, what is the Brady Cook factor in

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Speaker 1: your model?

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Speaker 2: Unfortunately, for Brady Cook, it's the problem with the problem

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Speaker 2: that he has is that there's a lot of great

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Speaker 2: pieces of this New England defense that are maybe even

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Speaker 2: a little bit underrated, like Kayleevon Chase On, Like, we

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Speaker 2: don't talk about him enough, although his name is fun

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Speaker 2: to say, so we should. But you know, he was

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Speaker 2: a bargain and coming off the edge he's done great.

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Speaker 1: You know he might come back there by the way,

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Speaker 1: Milton Williams.

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Speaker 2: I wasn't even I didn't. I was doing this without

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Speaker 2: even factoring Milton Williams. And and he was their big money.

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Speaker 2: They were very spendy on him and it paid off.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I just think this. This is a not to say

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Speaker 2: that the Jets don't have anything to play for, but

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Speaker 2: like these whole team.

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Speaker 1: I mean they don't. No team is truly tanking harder

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Speaker 1: than the Jets. Now they put Brock Bauers on injured reserve, right,

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Speaker 1: that would be much lower on my list. The Raiders game.

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Speaker 1: But here's what that's a little bit of a tank move.

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Speaker 1: But playing Brady Cook is a tank move. They could Taylor.

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Speaker 2: But think about it. The Raiders, Pete Carroll, Pete Carroll,

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Speaker 2: He's gonna try. Yeah, I'm staying with car Stay the

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Speaker 2: heck away from anything to do with Pete Carroll and

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Speaker 2: the Giants just don't do it. Yes, I guess that

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Speaker 2: could that one coin flip fifty truly a fifty to

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Speaker 2: fifty to me.

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Speaker 1: Here's a great stat about the Jets that I had

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Speaker 1: ready and go I los it was my pick. In

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Speaker 1: the last three weeks, they have been outscored one hundred

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Speaker 1: and eleven to thirty six. That is an average of

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Speaker 1: twenty five points. And it's not like one week was

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Speaker 1: forty and the other was ten. No, they were all

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Speaker 1: twenty two and above for three straight weeks. And two

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Speaker 1: of those games were against teams were that were well

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Speaker 1: under five hundred, so they weren't even good teams. The

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Speaker 1: Jags beat them up too, and they're a good team.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I think the Pat's killed all right. My

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Speaker 1: last one is one of those teams that beat up

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Speaker 1: on the Jets a couple weeks back. It is the

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins plus five and a half. Let's get frisky

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Speaker 1: with Quinn viewers. In Week seventeen over the Bucks, don't

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Speaker 1: doubt me. Although I do lose one every week, it's

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Speaker 1: usually two and one, not three and zero. But I've

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Speaker 1: had a winning week twelve straight weeks. Quinn eewers in

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Speaker 1: that game and this one I wouldn't feel comfort about

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Speaker 1: if I didn't go back and watch it. I thought

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Speaker 1: he played find They had three straight turnovers in the

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Speaker 1: third quarter. Maybe one was his fault, but the other

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Speaker 1: was a fluky tip. The other was a fumble by

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Speaker 1: you know, one of his teammates, and the other was

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Speaker 1: just they got stuffed on a fourth and one. And

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Speaker 1: when I talked about the death wish, I just got

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Speaker 1: bad vibes about this Bucks team, And so I'm taking the.

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Speaker 2: You have worse vibes about the Bucks than the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: No, but the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: But the bad vibes have already passed, Like the Dolphins

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Speaker 2: have already absorbed their bad vibes. Now they're in a

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Speaker 2: post bad vibe world.

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Speaker 1: It's more that close. Late in games, they're playing like

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield plays just a little frenetic, and I can

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Speaker 1: see them winning this game. I initially picked them to

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Speaker 1: win this game, but five and a half is just

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Speaker 1: a lot for me for a team that doesn't do

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Speaker 1: anything well right now, if you kind of look at

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Speaker 1: all their underlying metrics, like you do, run defense is okay,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think they'll be good on the outside.

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Speaker 1: They're slower against Devon a Chan. Everything else is below average,

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Speaker 1: like run offense, run passing offense, passing defense, especially like

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Speaker 1: they're just a mediocre team. These to me, are two

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Speaker 1: mediocre teams. The Bucks are like two and seven in

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Speaker 1: their last nine games.

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Speaker 2: I know it's not good.

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Speaker 1: That's pretty brutal. And the Dolphins they're okay. So to me,

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Speaker 1: this is like one of those coin flip games. That's

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Speaker 1: how I see it. And so the fact that I'm

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Speaker 1: getting five and a half means I'll take the five

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Speaker 1: and a half and it means on game debut. Since

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Speaker 1: I truly do believe in my heart it's a coin

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Speaker 1: flip game, I might as well just take the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: to win.

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Speaker 2: Because we only count the straight ups as are.

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Speaker 1: And because you and Patrick are taking me to the

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Speaker 1: woodshed this year.

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Speaker 2: So that's why we should. You should do it.

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Speaker 1: It's a good strategy. I'm doing much better against the

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Speaker 1: spread than I am straight up, so it's awesome. That's it.

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Speaker 1: We made it.

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Speaker 2: We did it. Thank you so much, Chris.

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Speaker 1: Cynthia, you are the best. Like I said, check out numbers.

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Speaker 2: So you guys all know you think he's cool when

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Speaker 2: you listen to him on this podcast, he's nobody thinks

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Speaker 2: that ten times better in real life.

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Speaker 1: You know what Cynthia did though, she baked eleven different

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Speaker 1: types of cookies. She spent an entire day, entire week

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Speaker 1: and brought in eleven different types of selections of cookies

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Speaker 1: for everyone in makeup and hair and production to have.

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Speaker 1: And that's the kind of woman that Cynthia's. All right,

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Speaker 1: we got to get you to your in laws. Merry

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Speaker 1: Christmas to you, Cynthia and to everyone listening. We will

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Speaker 1: be back in the audio feed in on YouTube this week. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm calling it.

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Speaker 2: I'm calling my shot.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the Christmas games. We're gonna recap that.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna have Will Gavin from Talk Sport. We'll do

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Speaker 1: that on Friday afternoon, So have a look for that

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Speaker 1: and we will see that