WEBVTT - "Little Fires Everywhere" 0:00:03.840 --> 0:00:07.000 Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Vanny Quinn. This week, the 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:11.080 younger forces in Taiwan, the sub forty generation, they are very, 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:13.399 very willing to take out bounds. They really want to. 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.520 They gunn into Tim Culpan on whether Taiwan would be 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.599 willing and able to defend itself should it be necessary. Later, 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:23.880 we'll speak with Admiral James Defrida's former Suprema Line commander 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:28.000 of NATO on NATO expansion. First, though, the strengthening dollar 0:00:28.640 --> 0:00:31.600 raises the specter of what I call little fires everywhere, 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.960 because if you're in a developing country right now, the 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:39.000 last thing you need is disorderly depreciation of your currencs 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:41.480 against the dollar at the time when energy prices are higher, 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:44.919 food prices are higher, and the global economy slowing down. 0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:47.920 That's muhammadl Arian on the dangerous ripple effects of a 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:51.919 strengthening US dollar. I spoke with Marcus Ashworth. Marcus, we're 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:53.880 seeing a little bit of a pause now, but since 0:00:53.920 --> 0:00:55.880 the start of the year, the broad dollar index has 0:00:55.920 --> 0:01:01.000 appreciated around seven year over year. We heard the mohammadel 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:05.720 Arean bytes. Are we looking at bigger fragilities to come well? 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:09.680 It's unusual to see emerging markets joined by a lot 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:13.440 of the very large developed markets in all at the 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:18.800 same time facing a very unpleasant circumstances with very weak currencies, 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:23.399 accelerating the need to have to raise interest rates not 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:28.360 only to combat inflation but support their currencies because unfortunately 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:32.440 this time around, because it's all important energy inflation, they 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:35.040 really don't want to weak currency, even if they're export 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:38.760 lead like say Japan or the Union, are this compounds 0:01:38.760 --> 0:01:41.360 itself or weaker currency. So it's all about the strong 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:45.280 dollar because the feathers raising rates so much more aggressively, 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:47.960 um and that then there's the added value of that 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:53.360 reserve haven currency or the dollar. So all the sort 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:57.880 of everything that wants a perfect storm, except perhaps we 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.680 see the dollar having a bit of a ead at last. Well, 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:04.320 where should we look for for agilities, because right now 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:07.880 it seems like there is social geopolitical instability in so 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:10.800 many places. I'm thinking of places like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:13.160 but obviously other places around the world as well, even 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:19.720 China thinking w about So yes, there is a lot 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:22.399 of other problems around the world, and I certainly think 0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:25.680 that encourages people to rush into dollars, particularly now they 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:28.200 can get to yield as the bond markets have verted 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:31.400 clearly with their feet. We have yet to see a 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:35.120 food crisis, but it's clearly coming, which will put a 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.519 lot of pressures, particularly on place like Egypt and North Africa, 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:41.120 but it will spill over into a lot of other 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:44.840 emerging markets. We're seeing clearly Turkey under pressure again the 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:48.280 last few days. They're all bubbling away, and the stresses 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:50.959 and strength of the system are xacci betted by the 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:54.000 strength of dollar, and buttons are starting to PLoP off 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:58.280 the super aggressive bed also with drawing liquidity. And the 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:00.880 one thing which has kept the world vibe through the 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:05.720 pandemic and gross crisis is equality of super amounts of dollars, right, 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:08.680 And how much of the responsibility is on the FED, 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.320 because obviously it has to look after its own economy, 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:14.440 and there's huge inflation relative to what we're used to 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:16.200 here in the United States, so the FED has to 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:18.560 worry about that. But at the same time, Jenny Yellen 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:20.560 used to always talk about feedback loops, so if there 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:22.920 are problems in other countries in the world, that's going 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:25.600 to eventually feed back to the United States as well. Yeah, 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:28.160 it's just going to be a second order effect, or 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:31.280 possibly more than that, until the US economy starts to 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:36.000 feel weakness because it's exports falling away or there is 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:39.560 a complete drop off demand. Only then will we see 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:42.040 perhaps be used as a bit of an excuse per Fed. 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:44.560 At the moment, that seems to be very little pressure 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:47.320 on them internally. To think of the rest of the world, 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:50.840 I do think that having Yellen and the Treasury is important. 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:53.400 Perhaps you could argue it's too close for comfort since 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.400 she's just stepped away from the FED, but equally it 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.480 can be very useful because she knows everyone. They all 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:01.080 talked to each other. There's no doubt about it. In 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.120 the Bank, I think that takes a very careful look 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:05.720 at what the said, doesn't likewise your insential bank on 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:08.040 the back of Japan. So I'm sure they'll they'll be 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:11.360 getting the incoming please stop the hiking rates so quickly. 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:14.120 But whether they listen or not, as you quite rightly summarized, 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:16.920 I don't think they can't then, yeah, exactly, And then 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:18.719 can we count on the rest of the world to 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:22.440 progress with things like structural reforms that might actually help 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:24.599 their economies. That's gonna be difficult for them too if 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:27.800 they can't even service their external debt, right. I think 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:30.600 that's which we're thinking on lots of different ways. I mean, yes, 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.360 someone that will have to not necessarily the time frame 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.080 they want to do it in, but some of them 0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:37.640 will absolutely have to do some more aggressive and they 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:39.719 already are to be fair, but it's a dilever for 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.680 everyone to be able to try and keep inflation down 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:47.040 and avoid recession. Marcus, you sound a little less worried 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:49.720 than somebody like muhammadel Arian. I don't want to over 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:52.720 characterize what he's doing, but is he maybe exaggerating a 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:56.720 little bit? Yes, I think there's a problem in the world, 0:04:56.760 --> 0:05:00.240 and I'm not sure they're going to get any any times. 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:02.720 Seeing but there are certain things which you know, if 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:05.240 you look at the underlying strength of the labor market 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:08.480 and economies in Europe, US and the UK in particular, 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.760 they're pretty strong. China is able to do an awful 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:15.239 lot of things which other economies can't presount so much control. 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:18.120 You know that the world is going to suffer a 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:21.840 correction because it's over stimulated. Left that stimus in too long, 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:25.120 and it's got a horrible hangover. Should we call a 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.120 combinems and logistic situations chuck in a war? But we 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:30.000 will get through this, and I do think the dollar 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:33.640 strength is overdone and it will probably carry on a 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:35.640 bit longer. But you know, the point is there for 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:37.440 a reason, and until the world gets a better place, 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:39.400 that is going to stay in the place. Today, the 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:42.159 Treasury is now talking a lot about friends shorings or 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.720 confining global supply chains to friendly networks. Don't quite know 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.800 who these friends are yet, but it must be pretty 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:52.240 difficult for partners or people who thought they were partners 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:55.400 to hear this. Many of them are not democracies. Are 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:58.560 we headed towards a system where many other countries are 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:01.080 locked out of the US and dollar system and don't 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:04.520 have enough reserves to pay for what they need to import. Well, 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:06.880 we know whose friends are because they're the ones who've 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:09.719 got currency swaps through the pandemic and before that, the 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:12.840 global financial crisis. Yes, it is a weapon. Do they 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:16.960 use it cleverly? Absolutely? Do I applaud what they're doing, Yes? 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:20.120 I do. Actually, I think this is the leverage they have, 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:24.120 and if you're without the dollar system, then that's a 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:27.359 conscious decision, And as far as I can say that, 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:31.520 the Treasury and the particularly oh fact of handling things 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:34.520 in a very smart way, and they are understanding what 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:38.920 they're doing with Russia. They're not being completely blanketly banning everything. 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:41.680 They've done it in a very superstated and clever way. 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:45.360 I think it's so wonderful forul Marcus Ashworth. Are you 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:48.719 willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:54.320 comes to that, you are? That's the commendment we made 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.720 President Biden this week. Well, gaff or no gaff. Taiwan's 0:06:57.720 --> 0:07:00.839 democracy is facing a hostile chai now and a policy 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:04.960 of strategic ambiguity on whether US forces would defend Taiwan 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:07.920 against China in the event of an invasion. Tim Coultan 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:10.760 lives in Taipei. I asked him how Russia's invasion of 0:07:10.840 --> 0:07:14.360 Ukraine and the subsequent global response might have changed China's 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:17.440 calculus on Taiwan, if at all. Yeah, this saber rattling 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.000 has been going on for twenty years. I've lived in 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:23.640 Taiwan half my life. It's something that's always been persistent. 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:27.600 It's had peaks and troughs. Back in the early two thousands, 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:30.440 when a more pro Taiwan independence president came in, and 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:32.480 he was in eight years, there's definitely a lot more 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:34.800 of it. Then we had a president for eight years 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:37.160 who was a bit more sympathetic to Beijing, and so 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:40.320 things died down. Now we have a president again who's 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.720 much more kind of democratically focused, leans towards the taiwan 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:47.880 centric view of Taiwan. So again it raises again. But 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:52.640 we also have a much more confident China, especially under 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:55.240 Shi Jimping, who's really pushing the genera a lot more. 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:59.680 So we now see this push towards basically making the 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:04.880 world understand Beijing's view of Taiwan and the China Taiwan relationship. 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:09.040 And I think the thing that I believe a lot 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.640 of people might be mistaking is that there is heightened 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:19.440 tension versus a higher cadence of statements from Beijing. So 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.880 Beijing will take pretty much any opportunity to press its 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:27.520 point on Taiwan, that being that Taiwan is an inalienable 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:31.880 part of China. Um you know, factually speaking, whether or 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:34.320 not you believe that you know, the PRC under the 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:37.599 c SP has never actually ruled Taiwan and the r 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:39.960 o C, which was kind of defeated and kicked out 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:44.920 of mainland China now sits in Taiwan. But there's definitely 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:47.680 that viewpoint from Beijing that Taiwan should be part of 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.920 the PRC, and of course in Taiwan the view is 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:54.280 very much the opposite. But what we're really seeing in 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.440 the last few years is weekly press conferences from the 0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:00.920 Foreign Ministry, and China also has a Taiwan Affairs Office 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:04.720 which deals specifically with Taiwan issues. They will always keep 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:08.840 pressing the point, and then of course whenever US officials 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:11.880 talked to Chinese officials, they'll keep reminding them, hey, you know, 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:15.800 don't make the mistake of supporting Taiwan independence. You know, 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:18.760 you need to be reminded that Taiwan is ours. You'd 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:24.240 be making a grave mistake helping Taiwan independence forces. So 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:28.280 there's definitely an increase intention, But I think the thing 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:30.480 that we're seeing a lot is also just an increase 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.640 in the cadence at which Beijing will remind the world 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:36.840 of its world view and its view on Taiwan. And 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:40.600 it's important not to conflate the two, although both definitely exist. 0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:44.640 Will China actually do anything concrete about making what it 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:48.240 perceives as its ownership of Taiwan anymore practical. Will the 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:52.680 taiwan his army have to defend Taiwan's democracy? That is 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:55.800 such a difficult question. You've got the CIA trying to 0:09:55.800 --> 0:10:01.880 work that at. You've got US, uh UK, Australian, Japanese 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:05.880 intelligence agencies and defense horses trying to work that out. 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:09.079 I don't think so. Um, you know, I might be wrong. 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:11.319 I hope, I hope I'm not wrong. I don't think 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:14.240 that we will see China try to invade Taiwan. I 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:18.079 think the most likely scenario might be maybe more akin 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:20.760 to what Russia did with parts of Ukraine, such as 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:24.400 Crimera or even Dombus regions. They might try to take 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:26.880 an outlying island. Taiwan is not just one island. There's 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.480 multiple islands. There's the main island of Taiwan, but there's 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:32.480 some outlying islands Pungu, which is kind of close to Taiwan. 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:35.200 There's another island of Ginman, which is very very close 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:37.560 to China's like one mile off the coast of China. 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:41.480 There's a couple of smaller islands. There's also some basically 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:45.080 deserted islands which a couple of countries are claimed Japan 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:49.040 and Taiwan and China and a few others claim a 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:51.320 set of islands kind of in the South China Sea. 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.600 It wouldn't be surprising if China tries to take one 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:57.360 of those islands just to kind of show that they can, 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.640 and that might be an to kind of rattle the 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:05.000 cage of the Americans and the Japanese and other allies 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:07.840 and like minded nations of Taiwan. But a full on 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:13.240 invasion of Taiwan, I think is unlikely. But we shouldn't 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:17.240 necessarily think of Beijing's leadership is acting rationally anymore than 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:21.120 we think of Vladimir Putin as acting rationally in trying 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:25.559 to take Ukraine. Rationalism doesn't play into it. It's more nationalism. 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:27.640 And there's the question of capabilities as well. I mean, 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:30.360 it would have to be a sea war. Taiwan has 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.160 an army, but how prepared is it. What kind of 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:36.320 tactics have they been learning? Is there the willingness in 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:39.920 Taiwan among the electorate to have Taiwan go to war 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:42.440 with China if it came to that. Yeah, So I 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:44.920 think one of the most important things that I think 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.280 the world needs to understand is Taiwan doesn't want a war. 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.360 Taiwan has not been bracing for war or preparing for war. 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:54.480 It is the case that China has over a thousand 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.960 missiles pointed at Taiwan. Taiwan does not have the reverse, 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:02.120 So it would be Taiwan is the fender as Ukraine 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:06.120 is the defender against Russia. There is a lot of debate, 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:08.800 both within Taiwan and globally about whether or not Taiwan 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:11.080 is doing enough, whether or not they take it seriously enough. 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:15.360 I think Ukraine definitely solidifies in Taiwanese people's minds that 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:18.400 it is a real possibility. There is much stronger moves 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:22.959 towards civil defense now. Washington, including Pentagon, State and White 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:25.920 House have criticized Taiwan for not taking it seriously enough, 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.160 for not spending enough money, for not spending the right 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.320 kind of money, and that is a valid criticism. I 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:34.439 think it could definitely be said that Taiwan has probably 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:38.000 not been doing enough. But there is a problem within Taiwan. 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.480 It's a domestic political problem, and that is that the 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:43.760 older generations in Taiwan, who think of themselves as more 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:50.319 Chinese are really not as keen to defend a independent 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:53.760 Taiwan as they might be seen as defending the Republic 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:56.720 of China, which you know, technically is the name of Taiwan. 0:12:57.200 --> 0:12:59.960 The younger forces in Taiwan, the younger electorate at the 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:04.840 sub forty generation, and even the sub thirty generation, including 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.960 a group of people like call the Sunflower generation because 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:12.640 they helped defend Taiwan's democracy by storming the legislature many 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.600 years ago. They are very very willing to take up arms. 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:17.760 They they really want to. They're gunning too. I have 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:21.280 people come to me constantly messaging me and talking and saying, hey, 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:23.360 we want to learn how to use weapons. We want 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:25.600 to go into the jungle and learn how to fire 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:28.839 rifles and learn combat training and stuff like that. They're 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:31.640 really really looking at Ukraine and going we want to 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:33.800 be like that. We really respect what Ukraine is doing 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:35.480 and we want to learn that. But that is the 0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:40.160 under forty generation. The over forty generation is probably less 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:44.000 keen to take up arms, and so Taiwan, I think, 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:46.680 is a little bit of a divided country in that respect. 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.040 And I think what we'll see going forward is that 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:52.680 time is not on Beijing side in terms of the 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:56.640 Taiwanese people seeing their self identity and willing to learn 0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:59.880 civil defense and taking up their own arms and defending 0:13:59.880 --> 0:14:03.400 a against any possible invasion. Tim Coulpan, There, don't forget 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:05.959 to get in touch. All thoughts and opinions very welcome. 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:08.720 I'm at Vanney Quinn on Twitter or email v Quinn 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.840 at Bloomberg dot net and Bloomberg Opinion is also available 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:14.719 as a podcast on Apple, Spotify and wherever you get 0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:18.200 your podcasts. Admiral James de Vitas is a former Supreme 0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:21.840 Ally Commander of NATO's Ally Command operations. His new book 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:24.720 has just hit bookstores. It's called To Risk at All, 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:28.160 Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision. In it, he 0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:31.840 analyzes how to make good decisions in moments of intense crisis. 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:34.920 Admiral Stavidas, I want to talk about NATO expansion and 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.720 the war in Ukraine, obviously, but first the book I 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:40.480 have to ask why nine Decisions? Is it a reference 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:44.080 to Dante and his nine Circles of hell Um? You 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.680 know that was very much in my mind and the 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:49.960 idea that we have found ourselves, I think in this 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:54.360 kind of dark forest as Dante did before he was escorted, 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:56.960 if you will, into the inferno. But we have to 0:14:57.000 --> 0:15:03.120 remember the optivism of of Ganti's uh divine comedy, which 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:07.240 is that eventually we escaped the inferno, we get to purgatory, 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:11.480 and we get to Paradis. It's an extra ordinarily optimistic 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.920 framework for somebody who's been through so much. Explained to 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:20.240 us how you picked these nine particular bottle decisions. Well, 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:22.640 first and foremost, of course, I'm a sailor, I'm a 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:25.720 naval officer, and so you know right about what you 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:30.080 actually know about. So I picked nine different sailors from history, 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:33.680 and Bonnie, you'll know also that another subtle reference here 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:37.560 is the Cato nine Gales, which is applied to sailors 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:41.720 when they have misbehaved. And so um in the course 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.360 of these nine decisions, to see some that come out 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:47.280 very well and some that come out very badly. M 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:49.720 it would have been easy to pick, you know, nine 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:54.600 spectacular decisions. I think more realistically, you want a book 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:58.440 that helps a reader understand what are the tools that 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:02.640 you're she needs to make decisions under extreme pressure using 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:06.000 the examples in the book. One of the conclusions that's 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:10.080 applicable to everyday civilian life, and in fact is probably 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:14.000 the conclusion. It's the only thing that matters is to 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.600 slow time down when you're in a moment like that. 0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:18.960 How do you get to that spot where you can 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:25.000 do that? You first and foremost, you you study others, 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.920 You look at history, You try and understand how people 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:34.440 can make those decisions. Number Two, you practice, and what 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:38.920 I mean by that is deliberately place yourself mentally in 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:42.400 a situation of extreme crisis and walk your way through it. 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:46.080 And that is the kind of training that Navy seals 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:48.560 do all the time before they go off. And the 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:53.880 more you practice, the more you consciously think about what 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.280 it would be like to be in that moment of crisis, 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.480 the more prepared you'll be when that when that moment 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:03.440 does come. Admiral watching Russia's war in Ukraine over the 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.080 last three months now, and you know it's obviously going 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.960 to go on for longer. What are the decisions that 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:12.000 you have noticed that possibly the rest of us haven't seen. 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:16.040 The small decisions, the medium decisions, the large decisions that 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:19.600 have been made by everyday soldiers on the battlefield that 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:24.560 you think are extraordinary. I'm going to start on the 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:27.800 Russian side of the coin Banni and say that here 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:34.119 we've seen terrible decisions, decisions that have led to war crimes. 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.320 And I think that's really what's most striking to me 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:42.520 is how the Russian mid grade officers, their generals all 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:46.520 the way up to Vladimir Prutin, have allowed their troops 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:53.080 to simply indiscriminately attack civilians, to break to loot. Um. 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:56.639 These are armies you would expect, behaviors you would expect 0:17:56.640 --> 0:17:59.760 from an army in the ninth century. Um. This is 0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:05.120 a series of terrible decisions and there is no excuse 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:07.760 for it. On the other hand, on the Ukrainian side, 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:13.919 you see soldiers every game making very brave decisions in 0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:16.199 moments when they, as the title of the book is, 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:19.120 to risk it all, when they are forced to risk 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:22.359 it all, they're making the right decisions. Look at those 0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:27.040 Ukrainian marines who held out in the city of Marioko 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:32.280 for months. Um, in their bravery, their courage, Um, you 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:36.200 see a mirror image, one mirror dark and the other 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:40.040 full of light. Admiral, what does it mean for someone 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:43.240 like you who has been through so much training and 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:46.560 so much effort, so much practice, so much studying of 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:51.400 past battles and past wars. To see ports in Ukraine 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:54.959 and even on the Russian side being completely blockaded and 0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:58.360 essentially becoming useless to the world, I mean that must 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.840 be that must provoke a very emotional reaction, even in 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.959 somebody as trained as you. It does indeed, and Um, 0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:07.960 you know we've faced this in history before. You may 0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:13.360 recall um in the nineteen eighties, Um, both the Iranians 0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:16.440 and at one point the Iraqis, particularly the Iranians, tried 0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:19.880 to close off the Straight of Hormuz from the shipment 0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:23.040 of oil tankers. And what did the West do? We 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:28.000 started escorting those tankers in and out of the Arabian Gulf. 0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:31.000 I did that as a young officer on board a 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:35.159 cruiser USS Valley Forge. And so I think it's time 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:38.880 that the West looks at this again. This is war 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:43.639 criminal behavior that you can't simply blockade ports. This is 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:49.199 not appropriate under international law, and it's cutting off desperately 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:52.720 needed grain supplies that's going to lead to further instability. 0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:57.520 I think it's time to consider humanitarian escorts in and 0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:01.440 out to keep the Ukrainian economy functioning. It Yet, he 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:05.520 creates grain to the world's market. We're with Admiral and 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:09.880 James Stavrida's former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO's Allied Command Operations. 0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:13.160 His new book has literally just hit the shelves. It's 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:16.280 called to Risk at All Nine Conflicts and the Crucible 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:20.119 of Decision. He analyzes what goes into making great decisions 0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:23.640 and maybe not so good decisions in moments of intense crisis. 0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:26.320 Want to turn our attention now to NATO and the 0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:30.159 question of expansion, Admiral, there is broad and bipartisans support 0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:32.840 in the US for Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Turkey 0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:37.159 obviously blocking it. Does Turkey have good arguments to make? No, 0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:40.480 they don't. And let's start with the qualities of these 0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:44.320 two nations as suite that Finland had commanded their troops 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:50.159 in combat uh They they deployed alongside NATO troops in Afghanistan, 0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:53.000 They operated in the war over Libya. They were part 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:55.480 of our efforts, NATO efforts to the Balkans. I know 0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:59.680 the quality of these troops very very well. Um there 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:06.359 a professional, highly trained and technologically advanced. The Swedish Grippin Fighter, 0:21:06.440 --> 0:21:09.159 for example, is among the very best in the world. 0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:12.280 I guess if you can build a good Valvo sports car, 0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:16.480 you can build a fighter pilot plane as well. So um, 0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:22.000 they bring real military quality. Second, they have a history 0:21:22.080 --> 0:21:26.720 of fierce independence. The Fins of course bought the Soviets 0:21:26.720 --> 0:21:31.440 to a standstill and the Winter War um and then 0:21:31.920 --> 0:21:35.040 that that ethos I think will be a benefit to NATO. 0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:39.000 And third fire Glint Bonnie. Geographically, this gives us a 0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:44.080 northern flank in the Alliance and and more um more 0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:47.720 landscape if you will, in the high north in the Arctic. 0:21:47.800 --> 0:21:51.840 Both Sweden and Finland are Arctic nations, so um there 0:21:51.840 --> 0:21:54.840 are there is every reason to bring them into the Alliance. Turkey, 0:21:54.840 --> 0:21:59.280 on the other hand, has a series of bilateral annoyances 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:02.240 I would category as the man is between they feel 0:22:02.320 --> 0:22:05.320 themselves in those two nations. It's not appropriate to hold 0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:10.040 up the these applications. I don't think Turkey will continue 0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:12.359 to do so well. It's a pretty bold step on 0:22:12.400 --> 0:22:14.760 the part of both Finland and Sweden to want to 0:22:14.840 --> 0:22:16.520 join NATO in the first place, But it does seem 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.399 like a pretty broad accusation to suggest that those countries 0:22:19.400 --> 0:22:23.400 are places where quote representatives of terrorist organizations are concentrated. 0:22:23.600 --> 0:22:25.600 How strong of an argument at all is this on 0:22:25.640 --> 0:22:28.480 the part of Turkey. I don't see it as a 0:22:28.520 --> 0:22:31.760 strong argument in the least, And and Turkey has deployed 0:22:31.800 --> 0:22:36.800 that argument towards other NATO countries. The Turks off and 0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:40.480 say that one of the leaders of the google and movement, 0:22:40.600 --> 0:22:43.840 he happens to live in Pennsylvania in the United States, 0:22:43.840 --> 0:22:46.280 and they want him extraditeed. But they have not given 0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:51.400 us any reason to extradite him, and neither have given 0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:56.240 the Swede to defend the appropriate documentation that that would 0:22:56.320 --> 0:23:00.280 lead to an extradition. Um, it's more a new ant 0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:03.639 spend anything else. And I think Turkey is is in 0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:06.600 the wrong place on this one. You know, Turkey Admiral 0:23:06.600 --> 0:23:09.159 has suggested that it might consider leaving the Alliance if 0:23:09.200 --> 0:23:13.000