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Speaker 1: Why is that world famous service at Tokyo restaurants starting

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Speaker 1: to slip? Why does the US dominate a Chinese city?

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Speaker 1: And why doesn't Southeast Asia's largest economy and largest country

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Speaker 1: want to lead. These are some of the questions that

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks in Asia raised. They aren't just

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Speaker 1: quirky or existential. They illuminate some of the most pressing

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Speaker 1: questions in society and economics today. Welcome to Bloomberg Benchmark,

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Speaker 1: a show about the global economy. I'm Daniel Moss, I

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Speaker 1: cover global economics from Bloomberg View. Helping me sort through

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Speaker 1: these ideas is guest host Joe Weisenthal, an executive editor

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg and co host of Benchmark's sibling podcast, Odd Lots. Joe,

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Speaker 1: it's great to have you here, and thanks for helping

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Speaker 1: me sift through some of these impressions and experiences from

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Speaker 1: my trip. First of all, I'm really jealous that you

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Speaker 1: just traveled through Asia, because I love I haven't spent

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Speaker 1: that much time in Asia, Hong Kong, a little bit, Qualumpoor, Singapore,

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Speaker 1: I love, I always love traveling there, so I can't

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Speaker 1: wait to hear your impressions, and I appreciate you, uh,

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Speaker 1: the merging of the podcast for today. Well, it's always

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Speaker 1: good to have someone who's inherently skeptical, but it's such

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Speaker 1: a good humid way to sort of keep my intellectual

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Speaker 1: adventurism in check. Well put, so, I will be interrogating you,

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Speaker 1: stress testing your ideas today, stress testing your observations. So

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Speaker 1: let's talk about some of the columns that I wrote

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Speaker 1: when I was at that you've been following the work closely.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate this, which one's come to mind. All right, Well,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned the Tokyo one. You mentioned this idea that

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Speaker 1: an important, perhaps an important indicator of what's going on

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Speaker 1: with the Japanese economy is slippage in the quality of

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Speaker 1: the services at restaurants. And I understand, although I've never

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Speaker 1: experienced it myself, that quality service at restaurants is extraordinary

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Speaker 1: just at any time in Japan, in Tokyo, but that

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Speaker 1: maybe that's changing a little bit. Well, look, it's long

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Speaker 1: been considered accurately that the quality of service not just

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Speaker 1: in restaurants, but people notice it. In restaurants in Japan

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Speaker 1: is easily first among the G seven. And of course

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Speaker 1: people love that you're not required to tip, so you

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Speaker 1: don't feel guilty. Now, you don't feel guilty, You don't

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Speaker 1: feel guilty at all. Now, this is something that is

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Speaker 1: Zumi de Valiate noticed. She's the head of Japan Economics

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Speaker 1: at Merrill Lynch Bank of America. She observed over lunch

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Speaker 1: that services starting to slip subtly to a foreigner. You're

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Speaker 1: not necessarily going to see it, but it's there if

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Speaker 1: you look for it. And this is part of a

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Speaker 1: broader phenomenon, which is the Japanese labor force is simply

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Speaker 1: running out of people. It's running out of people. Now,

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Speaker 1: before we get to the labor force and before we

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Speaker 1: to the subtle slippage in the quality of service, real

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Speaker 1: quickly describe typical restaurant experience. What would you what's the

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Speaker 1: experience in a Japanese restaurant in Tokyo that would set

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Speaker 1: it apart from a sort of an equivalently priced dining

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Speaker 1: experience in New York City. Well, for one thing, as

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Speaker 1: soon as you walk in, you're showing to your table,

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Speaker 1: no fuss, no mass. The table is always clean, whether

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Speaker 1: it's talking high end, mid end, low end. The service

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Speaker 1: is super attentive. There are generally several people attending to

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Speaker 1: everything comes right on time, that high degree of attentiveness

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Speaker 1: and again no tipping. You know you mentioned the slippage.

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Speaker 1: Give it a little example of what you and your

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Speaker 1: lunch guests notice, and then explain what does this really

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Speaker 1: tell us about the state of the macro economy? And well,

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Speaker 1: it was barely perceptible to me. A Zumi de valierate

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Speaker 1: a lunch guest, uh noticed it. You're waiting A couple

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Speaker 1: of second is longer. They're seemed to be one or

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Speaker 1: two fewer servers for a full restaurant Tokyo lunchtime. The

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Speaker 1: financial district again, if you live there, you know the

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Speaker 1: subtle science to look for. But look, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to overdo this. It's part of a broader phenomenon, which

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Speaker 1: is we're really getting to the bottom of the labor

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Speaker 1: market here in Japan. The jobs rate is two pot

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Speaker 1: it's falling to some extent. The shrinking population has been

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Speaker 1: shielded or obscured by more older people coming into the

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Speaker 1: workforce and more women coming into the workforce. Now that

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Speaker 1: extra pool is just about depleted. So I think the

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Speaker 1: Japanese labor market is potentially facing a shock equivalent to

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Speaker 1: the shock that the economy underwent in the eighties. What

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Speaker 1: happened the eighties are the Plaza Accord, the dramatic strengthening

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Speaker 1: of the end that followed that agreement. So many Japanese

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Speaker 1: companies move operations offshore, and the main obsession between then

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Speaker 1: and now has been what do we do without domestic operations?

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Speaker 1: How do we manage it? Now? All of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: this shrinking labor pool means you've got to have a

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Speaker 1: domestic strategy. So what went on in the restaurant that

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Speaker 1: time is just part of a broader peace. We tend

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Speaker 1: to think of Japanese demographics as being deflation ry. What

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Speaker 1: if they're not right? And I've always wondered this too,

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Speaker 1: because you know, we talked about, Okay, it's getting older

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Speaker 1: and older and there's deflationary. But if that means fewer workers,

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Speaker 1: and that means a fiercer competition for the pool of

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Speaker 1: available workers, you could imagine the sort of inflationary implications

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Speaker 1: at the same time. Let's let's talk about another country

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Speaker 1: you've visited, and I find this very amusing. In the US,

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Speaker 1: I would really say with the election that we've really

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Speaker 1: moved from talking about the FED all the time to politics.

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Speaker 1: But what you've observed when you were in China, the

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Speaker 1: FED is still incredibly important. So I was in Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong at the time of the last Federal Open Market

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Speaker 1: Committee meeting in late July. And don't forget, we've been

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Speaker 1: fed this narrative here in the US that America is

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Speaker 1: on the retreat in Asia, its influences waning, and you

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Speaker 1: know it's China's to lose, China's everywhere. But you know what,

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Speaker 1: being in Hong Kong for the week of the f

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Speaker 1: o m C meeting was illuminative for me. It was

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Speaker 1: all you heard about on TV, not just Bloomberg TV, CNN, BBC, CNBC.

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Speaker 1: Every email that came into your inbox was from an analyst.

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Speaker 1: It all led with the f o m C. Then

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Speaker 1: there was the granular taking a part of the statement afterwards.

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Speaker 1: At barely any point in this three or four day

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Speaker 1: session with the FED was the People's Bank of China mentioned.

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Speaker 1: That's China's central bank. So if the US is on

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Speaker 1: retreat and China's dominant, hang on a second, here, shouldn't

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Speaker 1: there be some discussion of what the People's Bank of

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Speaker 1: China is doing with policy and where it's taking the economy.

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Speaker 1: Something didn't square there. That is that is really fascinating. Now,

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Speaker 1: obviously there's the fact that the Hong Kong dollar is

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Speaker 1: still pegged to the US dollar, so in a very

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Speaker 1: direct manner um, you know, they, as it said, Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong imports our monetary policy. But is it something deeper

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Speaker 1: than that? Well, this is a financial center for Asia

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Speaker 1: as a whole. So people are not just talking about

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Speaker 1: what's going on in a couple of streets around Admiralty

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Speaker 1: or Central or Cowlown where our producers to hang out.

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Speaker 1: This is what the financial and economic community in Asia

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Speaker 1: was obsessing about. Now, you know, there are differences. Sure,

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Speaker 1: we knew a year ago there would be an f

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Speaker 1: o MC meeting at that time. PBOC doesn't publish its schedule.

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Speaker 1: It's also true the PBOC reports to the State Council

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Speaker 1: in China, that's the cabinet, so the structure is different.

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Speaker 1: But still there seemed to be this disconnect. If the

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Speaker 1: US has lost it and China owns it, why obsession

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Speaker 1: with this fairly technocratic American institution. That is very fascinating.

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Speaker 1: I guess it's kind of a relief, you know, if

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Speaker 1: we sort of hold on to this notion of incredible

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Speaker 1: American influence abroad that at least in this respect, there

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be any diminishment. I mean, some people

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Speaker 1: say it might not be a good thing, but kind

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Speaker 1: of bolsters are you know, are standing a little bit?

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Speaker 1: You know? I asked the Budget Director of Indonesia about

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Speaker 1: this issue, and he kept saying, but you still have

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Speaker 1: the FED. You still have the FED. The FED is

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Speaker 1: still most important because it affects our financial mark. It's

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Speaker 1: what it does to global portfolios, affects how much we

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Speaker 1: pay to borrow. Well, it's funny, so you mentioned Indonesia

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Speaker 1: and that you also wrote a column about that, and

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Speaker 1: Indonesia strikes me is one of these amazing stories of

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Speaker 1: a country that's grown incredibly in wealth. It's massive. It's

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Speaker 1: one of the most digital countries in terms of the

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Speaker 1: number of people who are on the internet. Incredible number

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Speaker 1: of people from Indonesia. But you don't really hear much

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Speaker 1: about it. People don't talk about it as much as

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Speaker 1: you know they talk about other Asian countries or other

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Speaker 1: emerging markets. Why is that, you know, it's a great question.

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Speaker 1: I mean, let's walk back a bit here. It is

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Speaker 1: easily by a country mile, Southeast Asia's largest economy. It

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Speaker 1: is the world's third largest democracy, it is the world's

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Speaker 1: largest Islamic country, and it is a thriving, rumbunctious democracy.

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Speaker 1: So what's happened is that for the past twenty years,

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Speaker 1: since the Asian Financial crisis, which really brought about literally

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Speaker 1: a revolution in Indonesia, the country has been transformed. There's

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Speaker 1: a post set of institutions in place. And by the

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Speaker 1: way that people making the decisions in government were all

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Speaker 1: personally scarred by that experience. I mentioned the budget director.

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Speaker 1: He was on a scholarship to Cornell had to pack

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Speaker 1: up and go home because his scholarship was denominated in repair.

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Speaker 1: So when the Asian financial crisis hit, it was academics interrupted.

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Speaker 1: So they're over that now. It's got thirty four provinces,

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Speaker 1: all of which seriously safeguard the large degree of autonomy

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Speaker 1: that they have. It's got an independent central bank. It's

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Speaker 1: got a debt ceiling. I don't know if that's such

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Speaker 1: a good thing. It's got a budget deficit ruler could

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Speaker 1: qualify for the Eurozone. All the post ninety eight institutions

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Speaker 1: are in place. The question I asked myself was why

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Speaker 1: doesn't the country really want to lead. The ingredients are

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Speaker 1: all there, the runways, they're the fuels in the plane.

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Speaker 1: Indonesia could unambiguously lead to the region if it chose.

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Speaker 1: My sense is it's still looking in would still trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out in this post ninety world what it

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Speaker 1: wants to be. One of the questions that raises is

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Speaker 1: things like, you know, the role of political Islam, and

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Speaker 1: then New York Times has written a lot about that,

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Speaker 1: but it's obscured a lot of other things that are going.

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Speaker 1: It's it's interesting because when you talk about these countries

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Speaker 1: that have experienced deep economic scars and how they can last,

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Speaker 1: and you know, so many times people talk about the

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Speaker 1: Buddhist Bank having the institutional memory of the Weimar hyperinflation

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Speaker 1: and how the degree to which that informs policy decades later.

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Speaker 1: So it's interesting. It sounds like there are some parallels

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Speaker 1: where this country was deeply economics economically scarred, and the

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Speaker 1: you know, even with it thriving and becoming much richer,

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Speaker 1: that those you know, those moments don't just feed easily.

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Speaker 1: You know. It's interesting. A lot of the retrospective is

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Speaker 1: done of the Asian financial crisis, have tended to be

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Speaker 1: very aggregate or focused on things like currency pegs a

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Speaker 1: good thing, whereas the region in terms of its debt

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Speaker 1: in balance as etcetera, etcetera. But if you want to

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Speaker 1: see where the region is twenty years later, you've really

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Speaker 1: got to take a look at Indonesia. I mean, they

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Speaker 1: had more than just a recession and a change of government.

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Speaker 1: They had a complete systemic collapse, and it actually looked

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Speaker 1: for a while like the country would literally come apart.

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Speaker 1: In the end, only one province East Team will broke away.

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Speaker 1: The rest stayed with the country at the price of much,

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Speaker 1: much greater autonomy. I feel like I have to go

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Speaker 1: in Indonesia because I've been to Malaysia a few times

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Speaker 1: and when last time I was in Malaysia, is trying

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Speaker 1: to a friend of mine, he just like Indonesia is amazing,

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Speaker 1: Jakarta is an amazing city. It really does feel like

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Speaker 1: there's a potential for some fascinating stories that many of

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Speaker 1: us here are probably missing. Well, you know, I lived

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Speaker 1: in Kuala Lumpa for two years during the Asian financial crisis,

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Speaker 1: and for a while there we were Malaysia had its crisis.

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Speaker 1: There's nothing compared with Indonesia. So for a while there

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Speaker 1: we were rotating in and you know, Indonesian and Malaysia,

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Speaker 1: as you know, compete for supremacy culturally and everything else

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Speaker 1: for like the Malay world. But you know, there is

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Speaker 1: a sense of optimism, a sense of freewheeling, a sense

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Speaker 1: that we've remade this country. Destination perhaps unknown, but we

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Speaker 1: know what it looks like. Malaysia seems to be going

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Speaker 1: through a funk right now. Yeah, I'm really jealous of

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Speaker 1: your travel, as I said at the beginning, but after

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Speaker 1: talking to you about these you know, sort of three observations,

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Speaker 1: I'm reminded why it's so important to get out of

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Speaker 1: our world here in New York and talk to people

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Speaker 1: in these, uh you know, different markets. Picture. What sort

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Speaker 1: of your big takeaway of things right now? Having seen

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Speaker 1: the world for a little while from the opposite side

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Speaker 1: of the planet. My big takeaway, and this gets back

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Speaker 1: to the issue of whether the US is in actual

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Speaker 1: or relative decline versus China. I think the picture is

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Speaker 1: a lot more complicated, a lot more complicated, and you know,

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Speaker 1: in many ways the US is still dominant. Is that

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Speaker 1: dominance being challenged? We're talking economics Here're not talking about

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Speaker 1: the South China Sea or anything like that. Is that

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Speaker 1: economic dominance of the US being challenged? Yes? Is China

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Speaker 1: coming up? Yes? Has it supplanted the US economically? I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure about that. Even though that idea is very

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Speaker 1: much in vogue and think tanks here in the Northeast,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure it's entirely true. Well, Dan, I appreciate you,

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Speaker 1: and we've still got the FED and we still got

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Speaker 1: the That's right, that's the big lie said. We still

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Speaker 1: have the fan in the dollar. Dan. I appreciate you

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Speaker 1: having me join your podcast to discuss your columns and travels.

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Speaker 1: And I just learned quite a bit. Joe. Next time

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Speaker 1: you can steal along in my backpack. How about that?

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Speaker 1: That's a deal. Benchmark will be back next week and

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Speaker 1: until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg terminal,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and our Bloomberg app, as well as

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Speaker 1: on Apple podcast, pocket casts and Stitcher. Why you're there,

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Speaker 1: take a minute, rate and review the show so more

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Speaker 1: listeners can find us, and do let us know what

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Speaker 1: you thought of the show. All your listeners in Hong Kong,

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Speaker 1: Indonesia and Japan were expecting to hear from you. You

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Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter at Moss, Underscore, Echo and

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Speaker 1: Joe as Odd Lots listeners know you are at at

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Speaker 1: the store. Benchmark is produced by Sarah Patterson. Head of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast is Alec McCabe, former Hong Kong resident. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for listening without t t under Burner The my fer

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Speaker 1: a bo