Speaker 1: You found Fantasy Football Weekly Micro a deep dive on
Speaker 1: one player in just five to ten minutes. Now here's
Speaker 1: your host, Paul Georgie. Fantasy Football Weekly Micro Edition. I'm
Speaker 1: Paul Georgie and my co host today Tyler kennablee as
Speaker 1: he has been for all of these. Now you don't
Speaker 1: get to do him all, Tyler, we get to rotate
Speaker 1: in the regulars too. Okay, all right, I mean they
Speaker 1: get to make an appearance. He was taking my spot. Well,
Speaker 1: all of them have expressed interest. Oh I think he
Speaker 1: got him a little nervous. Good. Yeah, yeah, you like that.
Speaker 1: I like that petitive, that's right. Today's Fantasy Football Weekly
Speaker 1: Micro edition will focus on new Detroit Lions running back
Speaker 1: David Montgomery. I this is a very interesting case because
Speaker 1: where his ADP is right now, I think is very
Speaker 1: very interesting and I'm excited to dive into it. So
Speaker 1: he was last year. He finishes the RB twenty eight
Speaker 1: and average points per game. He's currently going off the
Speaker 1: board as the RB twenty one, which seems like a
Speaker 1: pretty high. That's like a mid RB two, low end
Speaker 1: RB two. I guess yep, uh, he was. He had
Speaker 1: a pretty decent year lest year. Like, this is a
Speaker 1: guy who can he can make people miss. He was
Speaker 1: sixth and rush attempts per broken tackle. The only guys
Speaker 1: that were above him were Jonathan Taylor, Lamar Jackson, Damien Pierce,
Speaker 1: Romandre Stevenson, Derrek Henry. Those are good running exactly. And
Speaker 1: then at Jackson, ye, and then it's then it's David Montgomery.
Speaker 1: He's not a bad running back, He's not. I think
Speaker 1: the most damning thing about David Montgomery right now is
Speaker 1: that Chicago let him go. Yeah, made no effort to
Speaker 1: sign him dead. They rolled into the offseason with the
Speaker 1: most cap space of any team and made no effort
Speaker 1: to keep David Montgomery. What do they know? What is
Speaker 1: it about him? Or is this just that they think
Speaker 1: Kalil Herbert is that good? Yeah? Maybe they just really
Speaker 1: like Cleil Herbert and thought they could kind of get
Speaker 1: what they got from Dave Montgomery from Clio Herbert. And
Speaker 1: I think they only paid Dion to Foreman like a
Speaker 1: million or two. It was not a big contract all,
Speaker 1: so I think they thought they could get what they
Speaker 1: got just save a little bit of money and kind
Speaker 1: of a little bit of addition by subtraction. Right now,
Speaker 1: in Detroit without a doubt. The number one question on
Speaker 1: Montgomery is is he going to get the goal line
Speaker 1: touches that Jamal Williams got last year? And I don't
Speaker 1: think we can say for certain that he. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't think that Swift is going to get them.
Speaker 1: Let's just start with that. Because Swift only had four
Speaker 1: touches inside the five yard line last year. That's not
Speaker 1: those were those four were all carries all sorry to
Speaker 1: get some receptions from up close. Yes, um, yep, and
Speaker 1: that's I mean. And what Williams must have had twenty
Speaker 1: Jamal Williams was first and carries with twenty nine attemptine
Speaker 1: five that turned into twelve touchdowns. Twenty nine attempts, twelve touchdowns.
Speaker 1: The next closest person for with attempts from inside the
Speaker 1: five was Zeke at nineteen, So ten more touches nineteen
Speaker 1: twenty is in a typical year is where your number
Speaker 1: one most used inside the five runner typically comes in.
Speaker 1: And as regular listeners to the show, no, because we
Speaker 1: talked about inside the five all the time. From inside
Speaker 1: the five, you're looking for a fifty percent touchdown rate.
Speaker 1: So what we really wanted to see from Jamal Williams
Speaker 1: on those twenty nine attempts was closer to fourteen fifteen touchdowns.
Speaker 1: We got twelve. That wasn't bad. And then Williams scored
Speaker 1: a couple others along the way, but most of us
Speaker 1: were from up close. So I did a little digging
Speaker 1: on this, trying to figure out how many touchdowns we
Speaker 1: can get for Montgomery. Get this, Detroit ran the second
Speaker 1: most rushing plays from inside the five yard line forty
Speaker 1: rushing plays from inside the five, second most. Only the
Speaker 1: Philadelphia had more, and it's because they loved to run
Speaker 1: their quarterback from inside the five. You could draw a
Speaker 1: reasonable conclusion, Tyler, that the Lions aren't going to run
Speaker 1: forty more times from inside the five, and that they'll
Speaker 1: even out their run to pass ratio a little bit
Speaker 1: more next year. But then I dug up their pass
Speaker 1: stats from inside the five. They were second, and pass
Speaker 1: attempts from inside the five they were second, and run
Speaker 1: attempts second, and pass attempts from inside the five they're play.
Speaker 1: They kept getting tackled inside the five, and they kept
Speaker 1: having situations from inside the five, and they had an
Speaker 1: almost even number of run in pass plays from inside
Speaker 1: the five, which I found staggering that one team could
Speaker 1: run the second most runs and the second most passes
Speaker 1: from inside the five. If you had a Monrail Saint
Speaker 1: Brown on your team last year and you watched red zone,
Speaker 1: the amount of times that he got tackled at like
Speaker 1: the two yard line was unbelievable. He should have like
Speaker 1: he should have like twenty touchdown last season from the
Speaker 1: amount of times he got tackled at the one. So
Speaker 1: you should break him down sometimes. Yeah, get well, you
Speaker 1: should dig into that data. But I'm going to show. Yes.
Speaker 1: I also dope intoed like the inside the five stuff
Speaker 1: as well, because I was trying to, like you, I
Speaker 1: was trying to figure out how many touchdowns could we
Speaker 1: see from Dave Montgomery and how many carries that would be.
Speaker 1: So I took the top fifteen players and attempts from
Speaker 1: inside to five and calculated the average attempts per TD
Speaker 1: so and again the typical ratio were we love to
Speaker 1: get around a fifty percent ratio, So about two attempts
Speaker 1: for everyone touchdown. Yeah, So there were two hundred thirteen
Speaker 1: attempts among the top fifteen guys of rushes inside the
Speaker 1: five and then eighty nine touchdowns. So on average, it
Speaker 1: took two point four rushing attempts, let's get one rushing touchdown.
Speaker 1: Montgomery's average over the past two seasons is actually better
Speaker 1: at one point nine attempts for touchdown, and he'd combine
Speaker 1: that with the high the tackles for broken percentage that
Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier. So Montgomery just feels like a guy
Speaker 1: who he's not going to go down when he gets
Speaker 1: touched the first time. So let's just say this outright,
Speaker 1: David Montgomery's a better running back than Jamal Williams is.
Speaker 1: Oh for sure, It's not close, right, yes, So you know,
Speaker 1: if we can get close to the same number of
Speaker 1: touches or even less, even if even if David Montgomery
Speaker 1: doesn't get twenty nine attempts, if he's closer to what
Speaker 1: is a more traditional twenty two attempts for a which
Speaker 1: is still a lot because he's better at converting those
Speaker 1: into touchdowns, he could still end up at the same
Speaker 1: twelve touch down just from inside the five. Plus Montgomery
Speaker 1: is a way more dynamic run who's going to score
Speaker 1: more touchdowns from outside of the five yard line than
Speaker 1: Jamal Williams did. Exactly, And I think one thing that
Speaker 1: you're not really worried about, but just intrigued by the
Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift factor in this whole thing, because I was
Speaker 1: a huge Swift guy last season, absolutely massive, and the
Speaker 1: just he never got the ball and never got a
Speaker 1: harry inside he got he was hurt, but then when
Speaker 1: he came back, he just felt like I was seeing
Speaker 1: a little bit too much of Craig Reynolds and Jamal
Speaker 1: Williams from my liking if I was a Swift owner.
Speaker 1: So okay, okay, okay, whoa Swift would got hurt early? Yeah,
Speaker 1: missed a bunch of games, then came back and was
Speaker 1: clearly laboring on one leg, and they dialed way back
Speaker 1: as usage because they because every time they tried to
Speaker 1: keep using me kept reindering himself. So Swift could be
Speaker 1: a much bigger wild Carter healthy Swift, who was what
Speaker 1: was he a second round pick three years ago? I
Speaker 1: mean he's still he was. He was a special talent
Speaker 1: coming out of coming out of college. He's looked brilliant
Speaker 1: in some plays. If Swift rolls into this season healthy,
Speaker 1: and he plays this season healthy, he can be I
Speaker 1: think a bigger spoiler, not inside the five, because I
Speaker 1: don't think that's his deal, but broadly he can siphon
Speaker 1: up way more carries than he got last year. I
Speaker 1: think I agree with you in terms of I think
Speaker 1: in between like the twenties, I think swift is their
Speaker 1: guy because he has a lot of speed, His receiving
Speaker 1: profile is a lot better than pretty much anybody a
Speaker 1: lot of running backs in the league, and he's just
Speaker 1: a great, like you said, a great prospect. I'm just
Speaker 1: worried that I would just I want to see what
Speaker 1: they're gonna do in the red zone with him. Are
Speaker 1: they just gonna it's just gonna be okay, Dave Montgomery
Speaker 1: time here you go. Or is swiftly gonna get a
Speaker 1: little bit more involvement inside the ten? Inside the five?
Speaker 1: So if Jamal Williams was good for twelve touchdowns just
Speaker 1: from inside the five and whatever sixteen on the season,
Speaker 1: what do you think give me just the touchdown total
Speaker 1: you think David Montgomery gets. So if we applied the
Speaker 1: Russian attempts per to Russian touchdown the two point four
Speaker 1: that I was talking about earlier, Let's say Dave montgomer
Speaker 1: gets twenty carries, which would be nine less than what
Speaker 1: Jamal got last season. That's still gonna be eight rushing
Speaker 1: touchdowns from inside of the five. You do, but he's
Speaker 1: one point nine attempts per touchdown exactly. It might be
Speaker 1: even higher, but that might be ten touchdowns. I think
Speaker 1: Montgomery again, assuming it plays all season, I think he
Speaker 1: could be looking at a at a thirteen to sixteen
Speaker 1: touchdown season and he's going off the borders running back
Speaker 1: twenty one. It'd be impossible for him to finish lower
Speaker 1: than running back twenty one on twelve thirteen fourteen touchdowns.
Speaker 1: That's that's if he gets the touchdowns though, So you
Speaker 1: if you I think if you, if you swept they
Speaker 1: getting the touchdowns, well, if you're just made that clear,
Speaker 1: I agree with Ben Johnson is still the offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1: I don't think that changes. He's got his inherent biases.
Speaker 1: He saw what worked last year and Jamal Williams worked.
Speaker 1: I agree with you, I'm with you on this. I
Speaker 1: just think that it's always so risking when you're like
Speaker 1: I just if I need him to get touchdowns, but
Speaker 1: if he doesn't get touchdowns, he's not going it's gonna
Speaker 1: be like Jamal last year. If he doesn't get a touchdown,
Speaker 1: he's gonna have like eleven carries for thirty nine yards
Speaker 1: or something like that. I mean at eleven for thirty
Speaker 1: nine but in that range, well, those are the Jamal
Speaker 1: Williams non touchdown games. He killed you exactly, super dangerous
Speaker 1: guy in Gayoteen four. Yes, yeah, Jamal Williams was. David
Speaker 1: Montgomery is going into this season as well. Although he
Speaker 1: can catch, I mean David Montgomery can catch. I mean,
Speaker 1: Swift is still I think the primary pass catcher out
Speaker 1: of that backfield. But unlike Williams, who really wasn't using
Speaker 1: that role at all, I think Montgomery gives them some
Speaker 1: pass catching options and if Swift does get hurt, unlike
Speaker 1: Jamal Williams, David Montgomery can be a twenty two touch
Speaker 1: a game guy and that could give him RB five
Speaker 1: upside that Jamal Williams never had. DeAndre Swift never had.
Speaker 1: I think Craig Reynolds might be a bit more of
Speaker 1: a nuisance in that spot than you may realize. They
Speaker 1: resigned him. They'd like Craig Reynolds. Oh, I know they
Speaker 1: like him, but he's not. He's not siphoning off a
Speaker 1: bunch of work from David Montgomery. Yeah, no chance, we'll see.
Speaker 1: I just I think they like the running back by
Speaker 1: committee approach a little bit too much. All right, So
Speaker 1: who are the the running backs going getting drafted around
Speaker 1: David Montgomery? Yeah, so let's see who you like? Uh
Speaker 1: in terms of like he's are the guys who went
Speaker 1: around him? So we got DeAndre Swift at RB twenty one,
Speaker 1: So he got David Montgomery was RB twenty one. Oh
Speaker 1: R star RB twenty My bad? Okay, Um, that's uh
Speaker 1: so clearly Mcgomery. I want the touchdowns. I've got touchdowns
Speaker 1: on my fantasy team. Gotcha, not close Montgomery. JK. Dobbins.
Speaker 1: Dobbins was sneaky good last year. Did you see the
Speaker 1: way he was running? Literally he was limping like while
Speaker 1: he was running. But he's still averaged five and a
Speaker 1: half yards. He's gonna be a lot more healthy this
Speaker 1: year coming up. By the year removed from the ACL,
Speaker 1: I think I'm going to Montgomery because of the quality
Speaker 1: of overall offense. Okay, I think I take Dobbins there
Speaker 1: just from the pure rushing attack. I think Isaiah Pacheco
Speaker 1: RB twenty three. Let's say they don't go, say they
Speaker 1: don't draft him, he doesn't catch. Uh, too many other
Speaker 1: options to score. I'm going to Montgomery. Okay, Joe Mixon,
Speaker 1: let's say he's ways for its incident it is. You
Speaker 1: don't think he Let's say he's on Cincinnati. He's in
Speaker 1: the same role he was last season. You rather have
Speaker 1: David Montgomery. Yes, I just think I'm out on Joe
Speaker 1: Mixon just watching watching him play. And I backed him
Speaker 1: in a lot of leagues last year because I loved
Speaker 1: the improved offensive line and the fact that he was
Speaker 1: going to get most of the work. And he still
Speaker 1: got most of the work. Dude didn't do anything with it. Man,
Speaker 1: his runs were so pedestrian. He's still like a five
Speaker 1: touchdown game though. Take well, no, that was p Ryan's
Speaker 1: five touchdown game, wasn't it. Yeah? How many other games
Speaker 1: that he have touchdowns? And I'm still pretty sure he's
Speaker 1: fit like an RB ten last year in that offensive
Speaker 1: If he can just play the zecro, I'm fine with it.
Speaker 1: I'll take I think I take Mixon over Montgomery just
Speaker 1: because I think if, like again, if he's there, well,
Speaker 1: they got some leagual stuff going on and we'll see
Speaker 1: all that shakes out. But too Yeah, all right, last
Speaker 1: one cam Acres RB twenty five Now, Acres did look
Speaker 1: pretty dynamic late in the season. He looked fully recovered
Speaker 1: from the achilles injury. But man, he killed fantasy owners
Speaker 1: for three months and that that team still doesn't you know,
Speaker 1: even when they bring back Cooper Cup, you still have
Speaker 1: a terrible offensive line. Uh, Stafford's a huge question mark
Speaker 1: right now. I can't do it. I can't. I would
Speaker 1: not take that. I would not take Cam Akers. You know,
Speaker 1: we just I just gave you a scenario where David
Speaker 1: Montgomery is a legitimate top five running back. If DeAndre
Speaker 1: Swift it gets hurt again, Montgomery turns into twenty two
Speaker 1: touches a game and a top five running back. Cam
Speaker 1: Akers doesn't have that in any scenario. Yeah, the way
Speaker 1: the season starts for him, because it was the first
Speaker 1: opening night, he got like two carries and everyone's like,
Speaker 1: what is going on here? We just spent a fifth
Speaker 1: round pick on him and he got like two carries, Yes,
Speaker 1: and then it didn't really get better than that, Remember,
Speaker 1: I mean, he just he languished for a long time,
Speaker 1: and then then Baker came in the team for two
Speaker 1: weeks and yeah, you know all of that. Yeah, after
Speaker 1: all that stuff, like I would be surprit the way
Speaker 1: this running back classes and the draft, they're gonna draft
Speaker 1: someboddy and they're gonna want to use them. I think
Speaker 1: I think you're probably right. Kyen Williams is not the
Speaker 1: answer there either, So no, I was hopefully would be,
Speaker 1: if only because everybody else stunk. So I'm like, oh,
Speaker 1: let's try Kyran Williams. But that didn't pan out at all. Um.
Speaker 1: And it's such a deep draft from running backs, by
Speaker 1: the way, coming up this this coming, I think this
Speaker 1: week's Fantasy Football Weekly on Friday will be about rookie
Speaker 1: running back. So we'll have a ton of got so
Speaker 1: many good running backs of this draft class. Oh geez.
Speaker 1: Every time every time I start digging into a new
Speaker 1: running back out of this draft class, I'm like, hey,
Speaker 1: looks awesome this guy. There's so many great guys. I'll
Speaker 1: just say quick, my guy is Kendre Miller. That's my guy.
Speaker 1: It is he is. I love Kendra Miller, Tank Bigbee.
Speaker 1: I loved Okay, okay, just because of the name or
Speaker 1: good it started with. That's a cool name. I should
Speaker 1: check him out. And I'm watching the film and go,
Speaker 1: oh man, and I'm surprised He's moved up a lot,
Speaker 1: and it felt like the Tank Bigsby steam has moved
Speaker 1: from round seven, round six more to like round four
Speaker 1: and five. As people are digging into his film and
Speaker 1: knowing you had like no help around him, terrible offensive line,
Speaker 1: bad offense in general, and they just look at what
Speaker 1: he did with special moves. Tank Bigsby's good. Yeah. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying he's he's in the you know, the time.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying he's a top two three round guy,
Speaker 1: but I think in the right landing spot, he's gonna
Speaker 1: be good. Yeah. All right, Well, we'll talk more rookies later.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. It's it's probably our longest we got
Speaker 1: off track. It's probably our longest of the Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: Micro's back with more next week. If you have an
Speaker 1: idea for a guy you'd like us to talk about,
Speaker 1: David mctgomery. You came from Twitter, Uh, please let us know.
Speaker 1: I'm at Paul Charchi and Tyler is at Tyler kennabilely
Speaker 1: k n A E B L e