WEBVTT - FFW Micro - David Montgomery

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<v Speaker 1>You found Fantasy Football Weekly Micro a deep dive on

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<v Speaker 1>one player in just five to ten minutes. Now here's

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<v Speaker 1>your host, Paul Georgie. Fantasy Football Weekly Micro Edition. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Paul Georgie and my co host today Tyler kennablee as

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<v Speaker 1>he has been for all of these. Now you don't

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<v Speaker 1>get to do him all, Tyler, we get to rotate

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<v Speaker 1>in the regulars too. Okay, all right, I mean they

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<v Speaker 1>get to make an appearance. He was taking my spot. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>all of them have expressed interest. Oh I think he

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<v Speaker 1>got him a little nervous. Good. Yeah, yeah, you like that.

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<v Speaker 1>I like that petitive, that's right. Today's Fantasy Football Weekly

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<v Speaker 1>Micro edition will focus on new Detroit Lions running back

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<v Speaker 1>David Montgomery. I this is a very interesting case because

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<v Speaker 1>where his ADP is right now, I think is very

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<v Speaker 1>very interesting and I'm excited to dive into it. So

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<v Speaker 1>he was last year. He finishes the RB twenty eight

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<v Speaker 1>and average points per game. He's currently going off the

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<v Speaker 1>board as the RB twenty one, which seems like a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty high. That's like a mid RB two, low end

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<v Speaker 1>RB two. I guess yep, uh, he was. He had

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty decent year lest year. Like, this is a

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<v Speaker 1>guy who can he can make people miss. He was

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<v Speaker 1>sixth and rush attempts per broken tackle. The only guys

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<v Speaker 1>that were above him were Jonathan Taylor, Lamar Jackson, Damien Pierce,

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<v Speaker 1>Romandre Stevenson, Derrek Henry. Those are good running exactly. And

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<v Speaker 1>then at Jackson, ye, and then it's then it's David Montgomery.

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<v Speaker 1>He's not a bad running back, He's not. I think

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<v Speaker 1>the most damning thing about David Montgomery right now is

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<v Speaker 1>that Chicago let him go. Yeah, made no effort to

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<v Speaker 1>sign him dead. They rolled into the offseason with the

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<v Speaker 1>most cap space of any team and made no effort

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<v Speaker 1>to keep David Montgomery. What do they know? What is

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<v Speaker 1>it about him? Or is this just that they think

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<v Speaker 1>Kalil Herbert is that good? Yeah? Maybe they just really

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<v Speaker 1>like Cleil Herbert and thought they could kind of get

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<v Speaker 1>what they got from Dave Montgomery from Clio Herbert. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think they only paid Dion to Foreman like a

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<v Speaker 1>million or two. It was not a big contract all,

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<v Speaker 1>so I think they thought they could get what they

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<v Speaker 1>got just save a little bit of money and kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a little bit of addition by subtraction. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>in Detroit without a doubt. The number one question on

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<v Speaker 1>Montgomery is is he going to get the goal line

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<v Speaker 1>touches that Jamal Williams got last year? And I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think we can say for certain that he. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think that Swift is going to get them.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's just start with that. Because Swift only had four

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<v Speaker 1>touches inside the five yard line last year. That's not

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<v Speaker 1>those were those four were all carries all sorry to

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<v Speaker 1>get some receptions from up close. Yes, um, yep, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's I mean. And what Williams must have had twenty

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<v Speaker 1>Jamal Williams was first and carries with twenty nine attemptine

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<v Speaker 1>five that turned into twelve touchdowns. Twenty nine attempts, twelve touchdowns.

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<v Speaker 1>The next closest person for with attempts from inside the

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<v Speaker 1>five was Zeke at nineteen, So ten more touches nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>twenty is in a typical year is where your number

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<v Speaker 1>one most used inside the five runner typically comes in.

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<v Speaker 1>And as regular listeners to the show, no, because we

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<v Speaker 1>talked about inside the five all the time. From inside

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<v Speaker 1>the five, you're looking for a fifty percent touchdown rate.

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<v Speaker 1>So what we really wanted to see from Jamal Williams

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<v Speaker 1>on those twenty nine attempts was closer to fourteen fifteen touchdowns.

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<v Speaker 1>We got twelve. That wasn't bad. And then Williams scored

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<v Speaker 1>a couple others along the way, but most of us

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<v Speaker 1>were from up close. So I did a little digging

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<v Speaker 1>on this, trying to figure out how many touchdowns we

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<v Speaker 1>can get for Montgomery. Get this, Detroit ran the second

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<v Speaker 1>most rushing plays from inside the five yard line forty

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<v Speaker 1>rushing plays from inside the five, second most. Only the

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<v Speaker 1>Philadelphia had more, and it's because they loved to run

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<v Speaker 1>their quarterback from inside the five. You could draw a

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<v Speaker 1>reasonable conclusion, Tyler, that the Lions aren't going to run

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<v Speaker 1>forty more times from inside the five, and that they'll

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<v Speaker 1>even out their run to pass ratio a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>more next year. But then I dug up their pass

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<v Speaker 1>stats from inside the five. They were second, and pass

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<v Speaker 1>attempts from inside the five they were second, and run

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<v Speaker 1>attempts second, and pass attempts from inside the five they're play.

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<v Speaker 1>They kept getting tackled inside the five, and they kept

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<v Speaker 1>having situations from inside the five, and they had an

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<v Speaker 1>almost even number of run in pass plays from inside

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<v Speaker 1>the five, which I found staggering that one team could

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<v Speaker 1>run the second most runs and the second most passes

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<v Speaker 1>from inside the five. If you had a Monrail Saint

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<v Speaker 1>Brown on your team last year and you watched red zone,

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<v Speaker 1>the amount of times that he got tackled at like

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<v Speaker 1>the two yard line was unbelievable. He should have like

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<v Speaker 1>he should have like twenty touchdown last season from the

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<v Speaker 1>amount of times he got tackled at the one. So

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<v Speaker 1>you should break him down sometimes. Yeah, get well, you

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<v Speaker 1>should dig into that data. But I'm going to show. Yes.

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<v Speaker 1>I also dope intoed like the inside the five stuff

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<v Speaker 1>as well, because I was trying to, like you, I

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<v Speaker 1>was trying to figure out how many touchdowns could we

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<v Speaker 1>see from Dave Montgomery and how many carries that would be.

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<v Speaker 1>So I took the top fifteen players and attempts from

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<v Speaker 1>inside to five and calculated the average attempts per TD

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<v Speaker 1>so and again the typical ratio were we love to

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<v Speaker 1>get around a fifty percent ratio, So about two attempts

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<v Speaker 1>for everyone touchdown. Yeah, So there were two hundred thirteen

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<v Speaker 1>attempts among the top fifteen guys of rushes inside the

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<v Speaker 1>five and then eighty nine touchdowns. So on average, it

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<v Speaker 1>took two point four rushing attempts, let's get one rushing touchdown.

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<v Speaker 1>Montgomery's average over the past two seasons is actually better

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<v Speaker 1>at one point nine attempts for touchdown, and he'd combine

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<v Speaker 1>that with the high the tackles for broken percentage that

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<v Speaker 1>I mentioned earlier. So Montgomery just feels like a guy

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<v Speaker 1>who he's not going to go down when he gets

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<v Speaker 1>touched the first time. So let's just say this outright,

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<v Speaker 1>David Montgomery's a better running back than Jamal Williams is.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh for sure, It's not close, right, yes, So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if we can get close to the same number of

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<v Speaker 1>touches or even less, even if even if David Montgomery

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't get twenty nine attempts, if he's closer to what

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<v Speaker 1>is a more traditional twenty two attempts for a which

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<v Speaker 1>is still a lot because he's better at converting those

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<v Speaker 1>into touchdowns, he could still end up at the same

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<v Speaker 1>twelve touch down just from inside the five. Plus Montgomery

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<v Speaker 1>is a way more dynamic run who's going to score

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<v Speaker 1>more touchdowns from outside of the five yard line than

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<v Speaker 1>Jamal Williams did. Exactly, And I think one thing that

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<v Speaker 1>you're not really worried about, but just intrigued by the

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<v Speaker 1>DeAndre Swift factor in this whole thing, because I was

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<v Speaker 1>a huge Swift guy last season, absolutely massive, and the

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<v Speaker 1>just he never got the ball and never got a

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<v Speaker 1>harry inside he got he was hurt, but then when

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<v Speaker 1>he came back, he just felt like I was seeing

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit too much of Craig Reynolds and Jamal

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<v Speaker 1>Williams from my liking if I was a Swift owner.

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<v Speaker 1>So okay, okay, okay, whoa Swift would got hurt early? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>missed a bunch of games, then came back and was

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<v Speaker 1>clearly laboring on one leg, and they dialed way back

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<v Speaker 1>as usage because they because every time they tried to

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<v Speaker 1>keep using me kept reindering himself. So Swift could be

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<v Speaker 1>a much bigger wild Carter healthy Swift, who was what

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<v Speaker 1>was he a second round pick three years ago? I

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<v Speaker 1>mean he's still he was. He was a special talent

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<v Speaker 1>coming out of coming out of college. He's looked brilliant

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<v Speaker 1>in some plays. If Swift rolls into this season healthy,

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<v Speaker 1>and he plays this season healthy, he can be I

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<v Speaker 1>think a bigger spoiler, not inside the five, because I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think that's his deal, but broadly he can siphon

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<v Speaker 1>up way more carries than he got last year. I

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<v Speaker 1>think I agree with you in terms of I think

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<v Speaker 1>in between like the twenties, I think swift is their

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<v Speaker 1>guy because he has a lot of speed, His receiving

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<v Speaker 1>profile is a lot better than pretty much anybody a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of running backs in the league, and he's just

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<v Speaker 1>a great, like you said, a great prospect. I'm just

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<v Speaker 1>worried that I would just I want to see what

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<v Speaker 1>they're gonna do in the red zone with him. Are

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<v Speaker 1>they just gonna it's just gonna be okay, Dave Montgomery

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<v Speaker 1>time here you go. Or is swiftly gonna get a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more involvement inside the ten? Inside the five?

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<v Speaker 1>So if Jamal Williams was good for twelve touchdowns just

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<v Speaker 1>from inside the five and whatever sixteen on the season,

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<v Speaker 1>what do you think give me just the touchdown total

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<v Speaker 1>you think David Montgomery gets. So if we applied the

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<v Speaker 1>Russian attempts per to Russian touchdown the two point four

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<v Speaker 1>that I was talking about earlier, Let's say Dave montgomer

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<v Speaker 1>gets twenty carries, which would be nine less than what

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<v Speaker 1>Jamal got last season. That's still gonna be eight rushing

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<v Speaker 1>touchdowns from inside of the five. You do, but he's

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<v Speaker 1>one point nine attempts per touchdown exactly. It might be

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<v Speaker 1>even higher, but that might be ten touchdowns. I think

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<v Speaker 1>Montgomery again, assuming it plays all season, I think he

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<v Speaker 1>could be looking at a at a thirteen to sixteen

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<v Speaker 1>touchdown season and he's going off the borders running back

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one. It'd be impossible for him to finish lower

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<v Speaker 1>than running back twenty one on twelve thirteen fourteen touchdowns.

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<v Speaker 1>That's that's if he gets the touchdowns though, So you

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<v Speaker 1>if you I think if you, if you swept they

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<v Speaker 1>getting the touchdowns, well, if you're just made that clear,

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<v Speaker 1>I agree with Ben Johnson is still the offensive coordinator.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think that changes. He's got his inherent biases.

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<v Speaker 1>He saw what worked last year and Jamal Williams worked.

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<v Speaker 1>I agree with you, I'm with you on this. I

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<v Speaker 1>just think that it's always so risking when you're like

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<v Speaker 1>I just if I need him to get touchdowns, but

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<v Speaker 1>if he doesn't get touchdowns, he's not going it's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be like Jamal last year. If he doesn't get a touchdown,

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<v Speaker 1>he's gonna have like eleven carries for thirty nine yards

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<v Speaker 1>or something like that. I mean at eleven for thirty

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<v Speaker 1>nine but in that range, well, those are the Jamal

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<v Speaker 1>Williams non touchdown games. He killed you exactly, super dangerous

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<v Speaker 1>guy in Gayoteen four. Yes, yeah, Jamal Williams was. David

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<v Speaker 1>Montgomery is going into this season as well. Although he

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<v Speaker 1>can catch, I mean David Montgomery can catch. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>Swift is still I think the primary pass catcher out

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<v Speaker 1>of that backfield. But unlike Williams, who really wasn't using

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<v Speaker 1>that role at all, I think Montgomery gives them some

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<v Speaker 1>pass catching options and if Swift does get hurt, unlike

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<v Speaker 1>Jamal Williams, David Montgomery can be a twenty two touch

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<v Speaker 1>a game guy and that could give him RB five

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<v Speaker 1>upside that Jamal Williams never had. DeAndre Swift never had.

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<v Speaker 1>I think Craig Reynolds might be a bit more of

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<v Speaker 1>a nuisance in that spot than you may realize. They

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<v Speaker 1>resigned him. They'd like Craig Reynolds. Oh, I know they

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<v Speaker 1>like him, but he's not. He's not siphoning off a

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<v Speaker 1>bunch of work from David Montgomery. Yeah, no chance, we'll see.

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<v Speaker 1>I just I think they like the running back by

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<v Speaker 1>committee approach a little bit too much. All right, So

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<v Speaker 1>who are the the running backs going getting drafted around

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<v Speaker 1>David Montgomery? Yeah, so let's see who you like? Uh

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of like he's are the guys who went

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<v Speaker 1>around him? So we got DeAndre Swift at RB twenty one,

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<v Speaker 1>So he got David Montgomery was RB twenty one. Oh

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<v Speaker 1>R star RB twenty My bad? Okay, Um, that's uh

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<v Speaker 1>so clearly Mcgomery. I want the touchdowns. I've got touchdowns

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<v Speaker 1>on my fantasy team. Gotcha, not close Montgomery. JK. Dobbins.

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<v Speaker 1>Dobbins was sneaky good last year. Did you see the

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<v Speaker 1>way he was running? Literally he was limping like while

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<v Speaker 1>he was running. But he's still averaged five and a

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<v Speaker 1>half yards. He's gonna be a lot more healthy this

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<v Speaker 1>year coming up. By the year removed from the ACL,

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<v Speaker 1>I think I'm going to Montgomery because of the quality

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<v Speaker 1>of overall offense. Okay, I think I take Dobbins there

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<v Speaker 1>just from the pure rushing attack. I think Isaiah Pacheco

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<v Speaker 1>RB twenty three. Let's say they don't go, say they

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<v Speaker 1>don't draft him, he doesn't catch. Uh, too many other

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<v Speaker 1>options to score. I'm going to Montgomery. Okay, Joe Mixon,

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<v Speaker 1>let's say he's ways for its incident it is. You

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<v Speaker 1>don't think he Let's say he's on Cincinnati. He's in

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<v Speaker 1>the same role he was last season. You rather have

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<v Speaker 1>David Montgomery. Yes, I just think I'm out on Joe

0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:11.480
<v Speaker 1>Mixon just watching watching him play. And I backed him

0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:13.360
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of leagues last year because I loved

0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:15.760
<v Speaker 1>the improved offensive line and the fact that he was

0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:17.680
<v Speaker 1>going to get most of the work. And he still

0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:20.440
<v Speaker 1>got most of the work. Dude didn't do anything with it. Man,

0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:23.480
<v Speaker 1>his runs were so pedestrian. He's still like a five

0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:27.160
<v Speaker 1>touchdown game though. Take well, no, that was p Ryan's

0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:31.360
<v Speaker 1>five touchdown game, wasn't it. Yeah? How many other games

0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:33.960
<v Speaker 1>that he have touchdowns? And I'm still pretty sure he's

0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:35.760
<v Speaker 1>fit like an RB ten last year in that offensive

0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:37.640
<v Speaker 1>If he can just play the zecro, I'm fine with it.

0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.960
<v Speaker 1>I'll take I think I take Mixon over Montgomery just

0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:43.679
<v Speaker 1>because I think if, like again, if he's there, well,

0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:45.240
<v Speaker 1>they got some leagual stuff going on and we'll see

0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.400
<v Speaker 1>all that shakes out. But too Yeah, all right, last

0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:50.920
<v Speaker 1>one cam Acres RB twenty five Now, Acres did look

0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:55.480
<v Speaker 1>pretty dynamic late in the season. He looked fully recovered

0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:59.880
<v Speaker 1>from the achilles injury. But man, he killed fantasy owners

0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.760
<v Speaker 1>for three months and that that team still doesn't you know,

0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:04.600
<v Speaker 1>even when they bring back Cooper Cup, you still have

0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:08.200
<v Speaker 1>a terrible offensive line. Uh, Stafford's a huge question mark

0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.000
<v Speaker 1>right now. I can't do it. I can't. I would

0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:13.960
<v Speaker 1>not take that. I would not take Cam Akers. You know,

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.200
<v Speaker 1>we just I just gave you a scenario where David

0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.080
<v Speaker 1>Montgomery is a legitimate top five running back. If DeAndre

0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:22.920
<v Speaker 1>Swift it gets hurt again, Montgomery turns into twenty two

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:24.840
<v Speaker 1>touches a game and a top five running back. Cam

0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:27.320
<v Speaker 1>Akers doesn't have that in any scenario. Yeah, the way

0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:30.680
<v Speaker 1>the season starts for him, because it was the first

0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.600
<v Speaker 1>opening night, he got like two carries and everyone's like,

0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:37.120
<v Speaker 1>what is going on here? We just spent a fifth

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:39.720
<v Speaker 1>round pick on him and he got like two carries, Yes,

0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:41.960
<v Speaker 1>and then it didn't really get better than that, Remember,

0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:43.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, he just he languished for a long time,

0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:47.920
<v Speaker 1>and then then Baker came in the team for two

0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:50.360
<v Speaker 1>weeks and yeah, you know all of that. Yeah, after

0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.199
<v Speaker 1>all that stuff, like I would be surprit the way

0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.320
<v Speaker 1>this running back classes and the draft, they're gonna draft

0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:57.199
<v Speaker 1>someboddy and they're gonna want to use them. I think

0:12:57.240 --> 0:12:59.080
<v Speaker 1>I think you're probably right. Kyen Williams is not the

0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.199
<v Speaker 1>answer there either, So no, I was hopefully would be,

0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.760
<v Speaker 1>if only because everybody else stunk. So I'm like, oh,

0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:07.600
<v Speaker 1>let's try Kyran Williams. But that didn't pan out at all. Um.

0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.760
<v Speaker 1>And it's such a deep draft from running backs, by

0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 1>the way, coming up this this coming, I think this

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 1>week's Fantasy Football Weekly on Friday will be about rookie

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 1>running back. So we'll have a ton of got so

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:20.920
<v Speaker 1>many good running backs of this draft class. Oh geez.

0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Every time every time I start digging into a new

0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:25.640
<v Speaker 1>running back out of this draft class, I'm like, hey,

0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:29.520
<v Speaker 1>looks awesome this guy. There's so many great guys. I'll

0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 1>just say quick, my guy is Kendre Miller. That's my guy.

0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:34.760
<v Speaker 1>It is he is. I love Kendra Miller, Tank Bigbee.

0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.839
<v Speaker 1>I loved Okay, okay, just because of the name or

0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:41.679
<v Speaker 1>good it started with. That's a cool name. I should

0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>check him out. And I'm watching the film and go,

0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>oh man, and I'm surprised He's moved up a lot,

0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:50.480
<v Speaker 1>and it felt like the Tank Bigsby steam has moved

0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:54.960
<v Speaker 1>from round seven, round six more to like round four

0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:56.880
<v Speaker 1>and five. As people are digging into his film and

0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:00.680
<v Speaker 1>knowing you had like no help around him, terrible offensive line,

0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:03.000
<v Speaker 1>bad offense in general, and they just look at what

0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:07.400
<v Speaker 1>he did with special moves. Tank Bigsby's good. Yeah. I'm

0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 1>not saying he's he's in the you know, the time.

0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm not saying he's a top two three round guy,

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:15.720
<v Speaker 1>but I think in the right landing spot, he's gonna

0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:18.400
<v Speaker 1>be good. Yeah. All right, Well, we'll talk more rookies later.

0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:21.120
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening. It's it's probably our longest we got

0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:23.840
<v Speaker 1>off track. It's probably our longest of the Fantasy Football Weekly.

0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:26.920
<v Speaker 1>Micro's back with more next week. If you have an

0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:28.880
<v Speaker 1>idea for a guy you'd like us to talk about,

0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:32.200
<v Speaker 1>David mctgomery. You came from Twitter, Uh, please let us know.

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm at Paul Charchi and Tyler is at Tyler kennabilely

0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:36.480
<v Speaker 1>k n A E B L e