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Speaker 2: now the one person I wanted to talk to her
Speaker 2: commercial free year through the fur Good morning, huge audience
Speaker 2: on YouTube. Good morning to all of you Lindsey Pigs.
Speaker 2: It joins us who's pushed way again consensus and it said,
Speaker 2: this is a fed of stability or even rate increase.
Speaker 2: You look like a genius this morning. Are you going
Speaker 2: to look like a genius in thirty days for the
Speaker 2: report come July?
Speaker 3: Well, I think so. Even if we did see a
Speaker 3: hotter than expected print in even the next one or
Speaker 3: two inflation reports, it's not going to be enough data
Speaker 3: to convince the FED, particularly against very clear tight conditions
Speaker 3: in the labor market. And the most concerning component of
Speaker 3: this report for the FED is going to be that
Speaker 3: wage component. We continue to see pressure on wages as
Speaker 3: labor demands outpaces labor supply. And this is not something
Speaker 3: that's going to be fixed overnight. This is a rebalancing
Speaker 3: that is going to have to occur over months, a
Speaker 3: prolonged period. And so when we look to the FED,
Speaker 3: who's telling us they need very clear evidence of disinflation,
Speaker 3: many months of that evidence that says that while raycut
Speaker 3: may be eventual, eventually does appear to increasingly be a
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five event.
Speaker 4: You know, Tom, This top Live blog continues to be
Speaker 4: my go to when you get these big things. And
Speaker 4: here's something just posted there. The two hundred and seventy
Speaker 4: two thousand payroll gain was bigger than every last one
Speaker 4: of the seventy seven estimates in the Bloomberg survey. So
Speaker 4: there you go, Lindsey, where's this demand for labor coming from?
Speaker 4: I mean, who's hiring all these people?
Speaker 3: Well, I think it's pretty broad based. There isn't one
Speaker 3: sector of the economy that's booming. What we're seeing is
Speaker 3: an overall steady level of expansion across several key categories
Speaker 3: of the economy. Now again, I don't want to overseell
Speaker 3: what we are seeing in the labor market or the
Speaker 3: broader domestic economy, because we are starting to see somewhat
Speaker 3: of a rebalancing. Labor market conditions. Absolutely, they're still tight,
Speaker 3: but they are somewhat less type than what we saw
Speaker 3: not just at the start of the year, but over
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three. So we are starting
Speaker 3: to see a rebalancing. But the problem is the overall impact,
Speaker 3: or that that rebalancing is occurring at a much slower
Speaker 3: case than the market or specifically the FED had anticipated.
Speaker 3: Still positive, but we are starting to see that second
Speaker 3: derivative decline.
Speaker 2: And Paul aw you get out the HP twelve C.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, if you have pigs on, you
Speaker 2: got to get out the HP twelve C. And I
Speaker 2: do the three months moving average, which in March was
Speaker 2: a big number OMG. April was a lesser number. And
Speaker 2: now we just got another big number. Lindsey, I'm rocking
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty thousand ish over the last ninety
Speaker 2: days per month six years ago. That's a boom statistic.
Speaker 2: Are we in a boom labor economy?
Speaker 3: Well, I do cost and against reading in too much
Speaker 3: to the headline payroll number, because we are starting to
Speaker 3: see somewhat of divergence between the payrolls and the household survey.
Speaker 3: Payrolls are consistently reaching new highs month after months, but
Speaker 3: the household survey really has shown somewhat of fatigue plateauing
Speaker 3: over the past I would say, six to eight months.
Speaker 3: The disconnect, of course reflecting the fact that we consistently
Speaker 3: underaccount the working age population, particularly now as we see
Speaker 3: these large flows of immigration coming into the economy, legal
Speaker 3: and illegal.
Speaker 2: But also what.
Speaker 3: We're seeing is this shift in the demand or the
Speaker 3: type of jobs being created in terms of full time
Speaker 3: versus part time. Now, I haven't dug into the details
Speaker 3: of this report specifically, last month was almost entirely full time,
Speaker 3: but if we go prior to that six to eight months,
Speaker 3: that was almost entirely part time employment, which, as we know,
Speaker 3: part time hires typically have more than one gig. And
Speaker 3: then of course you're counted more than once in the
Speaker 3: payroll report, which could artificially inflate. That number again still positive,
Speaker 3: but I do think there's some underlying signs of the
Speaker 3: economy starting to cool that that rebalancing. As I mentioned, so.
Speaker 4: We had four point one percent average hourly earnings year
Speaker 4: of year four point one percent. That's well above the
Speaker 4: three point nine percent consensus. Last month was also revised
Speaker 4: a little bit higher. Wage inflation, Is that a thing?
Speaker 3: Well, it's certainly a concern, absolutely, and concern not just
Speaker 3: for the FED, but wages. Surprisingly strong wage data for
Speaker 3: the BOE the ECB. That was also noted as a
Speaker 3: concern for the pathway going forward. So even as we
Speaker 3: see some of the supply side components providing ample relief
Speaker 3: to inflation as economy is reopened, tradelines come back online
Speaker 3: in the aftermath of COVID, what we're seeing is some
Speaker 3: of these variables under the purview of global central banks
Speaker 3: are showing less improvement as we have allowed in some
Speaker 3: ways inflation to become entrenched in the economy, with central
Speaker 3: banks sitting on the sidelines and allowing above target inflation
Speaker 3: for a long period of time.
Speaker 2: Lindzi, when you were taking your PhD, you had the
Speaker 2: unenviable task of studying the terror for Michigan Claudia some
Speaker 2: and of course Claudia has been forceful that we don't
Speaker 2: have enough evident data for recession. Clearly she's been right.
Speaker 2: She's on with us in a moment, folks. Clearly Lindsay
Speaker 2: Piggs has been right that the economy is much better.
Speaker 2: But how bifurcated is the economy now between the haves
Speaker 2: and the have nots.
Speaker 3: Well, I would push back. I don't think the storyline
Speaker 3: is between the rich and the poor, the have and
Speaker 3: the have not. I think the divide is between the
Speaker 3: asset holders and the non asset holders. Because what we've
Speaker 3: seen is while the average American household is still outspending,
Speaker 3: they are feeling pain from higher prices, higher borrowing costs,
Speaker 3: the resumption of student debt payments. But there's another category
Speaker 3: of consumers that have experienced asset increase in net wealth
Speaker 3: to the tune of twelve trillion dollars over the past year.
Speaker 3: And that's possible thanks in Part two, this massive increase
Speaker 3: in asset prices via the equity market, via the housing market.
Speaker 3: So when we paint with a broad brush, the consumer
Speaker 3: remains resilient, that's very much true, but the level of
Speaker 3: resiliency is very much divided between the asset holders and
Speaker 3: the non asset holders in this economy.
Speaker 2: Lindsey think of someone doctor figs. It was Stifel here,
Speaker 2: and of course she's done a yeoman's job of pushing
Speaker 2: against they're going to cut, cut, cut, just saying everybody
Speaker 2: calm down and wait for the data to let you
Speaker 2: know where we are. Now. We got Claudia sim coming
Speaker 2: up in moments because of is it Roaring Kitty? Do
Speaker 2: I have that right now?
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Jess's going to brief here. I was like, you know,
Speaker 2: why do we need to talk to Jess Metton about
Speaker 2: Roaring Kitty? And the answer is we've gone from sixty
Speaker 2: seven to thirty six. We're now breaking down to a
Speaker 2: new loath this morning, so we'll get to Jess Matton. Yeah,
Speaker 2: on Roaring Kiddy.
Speaker 4: Game stop down twenty three percent pre market trading time.
Speaker 4: They had some news that they filed to sell up
Speaker 4: the seventy five million shares to take advantage of this
Speaker 4: what had been one hundred and sixty percent increase in
Speaker 4: the stop the year.
Speaker 2: Speaking of Hello Kitty, Claudia sam joins right now where
Speaker 2: there cats that she heards on a weekend basis. Claudia Sam,
Speaker 2: of course, providing all sorts of important economic analysis, hugely
Speaker 2: influential right now with New Century Advisors. Claudia, you nailed it.
Speaker 2: Just everybody's saying, Claudia Sam's right, recession, recession, and you're like,
Speaker 2: wait for the data. Is this a numph of Is
Speaker 2: this enough of an oomph positive jobs report where you're
Speaker 2: not looking out to the first week of July, but
Speaker 2: you've got to get out further to get any kind
Speaker 2: of caution on this economy.
Speaker 5: This is good news today. Jobs days have been good
Speaker 5: news in the past couple years. We see a resilient
Speaker 5: labor market. We have had a job full recovery for
Speaker 5: the first time in a very long time, and that's good.
Speaker 5: So you know, I understand that sometimes markets think good
Speaker 5: news is bad news and it's bad news for the Fed. No,
Speaker 5: this is good news for the Fed. People have jobs.
Speaker 5: It is good.
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean the FED starting when they look
Speaker 2: like a genius right now in terms of the parlor game,
Speaker 2: which I don't care about, but the overlay of that
Speaker 2: is a sub two percent GDP growth. Is that embedded
Speaker 2: into your study now where you're looking at finally real
Speaker 2: GDP growth actually pulls down.
Speaker 5: So I will channel FED chair J. Powell and say
Speaker 5: we look at the totality of the data. Right, we
Speaker 5: have to bring all the pieces together. You can't just
Speaker 5: look at the labor market and say recession or not.
Speaker 5: I don't lean just on the song rule and it's
Speaker 5: my rule, right, So, and it's very important a couple
Speaker 5: of pieces. Always look under the hood.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 5: We need to see the consumer we're keep going. We
Speaker 5: need to see the businesses investing. We've largely seen that
Speaker 5: it's going to be bumpy, and never take one month
Speaker 5: and run with it, like, we really have to look
Speaker 5: three months, six months, and if you do that story,
Speaker 5: you've got the moderation today is not throwing that off,
Speaker 5: but it's a good moderation. It's a sustainable path we
Speaker 5: are on.
Speaker 2: Paul, I'm going to go this three month moving average
Speaker 2: is like two fifty and firm payrolls ten years ago.
Speaker 4: That was a boom mcconna, that was a Boomcconnay, it
Speaker 4: looks like we're fully employed. I guess let's look at
Speaker 4: the wages here, Claudia. We had last month we revised
Speaker 4: up a little bit to four percent this month that
Speaker 4: came in at four point one percent on an annualized basis,
Speaker 4: is that wage inflation. Are we looking at the wage
Speaker 4: inflation there?
Speaker 5: We have seen no evidence of a wage price spiral
Speaker 5: its entire cycle, and if you didn't see it in
Speaker 5: twenty twenty two, I have there is no story for
Speaker 5: it right now. Again, we need a resilient economy. We
Speaker 5: need paychecks out there so people keep spending. The FED
Speaker 5: is going to wait, that's just kind of how they roll.
Speaker 5: So we want to make sure that that patient side
Speaker 5: does not take us all down. And it looks like
Speaker 5: they got some resilience and that's a good big picture,
Speaker 5: not just for the Fed and their waiting game.
Speaker 4: So Chloudia, how do you think about the immigration, both
Speaker 4: legal and illegal and how that impacts some of the
Speaker 4: data we've been seeing over the last I don't know,
Speaker 4: six or twelve months, it seems to be getting a
Speaker 4: little bit more play out there.
Speaker 5: So, first, from the lens of the economy, the immigration,
Speaker 5: the pickup and immigration to this country has been good
Speaker 5: for the economy. We had widespread labor shortages and those
Speaker 5: really buy and large are taken care of. Wasn't just immigrants.
Speaker 5: We had women coming back strong, we had other people
Speaker 5: and marginalized groups coming in. But we needed workers. They
Speaker 5: weren't displacing workers. They were filling job that weren't getting built.
Speaker 5: That's good, of course. Bigger picture, there's a you know,
Speaker 5: conversation to have about how we do that in an
Speaker 5: orderly way right now. So that's the economy what you
Speaker 5: asked about with the data. Throw one more measurement challenge
Speaker 5: at the beer of labor statistics, right like, it is
Speaker 5: just very hard to survey these people. They might show
Speaker 5: up in household survey, they might not. They might show
Speaker 5: up an establishment survey. So but we have a lot
Speaker 5: of things that are making the data hard to read
Speaker 5: right now, a.
Speaker 2: Threat to society. Paul is always an economists that pulls
Speaker 2: out Miriam Webster. Claudia Sam with a blistering essay for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Opinion here in recent days. Claudia Sam on inflation,
Speaker 2: What did you learn in your study? I mean, of
Speaker 2: course you have to quote University of Michigan statistics. I
Speaker 2: get it, it's the franchise out there. But Claudia, what
Speaker 2: is the character of the inflation into this summer?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 5: So the point of the piece was, yes, there is
Speaker 5: when we talk about inflation. People are upset about inflation,
Speaker 5: and economists try and convince the noise getting better. This
Speaker 5: is more than economics, right, because we are talking about
Speaker 5: the same thing and increase in prices. That is an
Speaker 5: economic phenomenon, But there's a lot more that's getting wrapped
Speaker 5: up in inflation. And if we're going to have a
Speaker 5: productive debate, we need to get the economics sorted out
Speaker 5: with the economist in that bin, and then there's another
Speaker 5: discussion and bring in other experts, like let's stop pretending
Speaker 5: this is all about the economy.
Speaker 4: So Claudia, where does this federal reserve go from here?
Speaker 4: It sounds like and I'm looking at the market here, boy,
Speaker 4: they can just wait, no problem waiting here and maybe
Speaker 4: even into next year.
Speaker 5: The Fed has a dual mandate, so regardless of what
Speaker 5: the Fed quote unquote can do, the FED, when inflation
Speaker 5: is back down on a sustainable two percent, they're supposed
Speaker 5: to be out of the way. Their goal is not
Speaker 5: to lean on nor is it their mandate to lean
Speaker 5: on the economy as long as possible. So I think
Speaker 5: that's you know this, today is a good day in saying, hey,
Speaker 5: we're not creating towards a recession that could lead to
Speaker 5: really fast cuts, very disruptive. Right, and yet I don't
Speaker 5: think there's anything here that says, oh, the Fed's gonna
Speaker 5: wait until next year.
Speaker 2: Okay. Clouding that one final question, we need to go
Speaker 2: to Claudia Sam territory. Claudia Sam, you know that the
Speaker 2: Science Diet CD stress bag for cat food it's a moonshot.
Speaker 2: It was one hundred dollars for an eighteen pound bag,
Speaker 2: and that puppies pop on one hundred and fourteen dollars.
Speaker 2: I'm seeing the same thing for the for vet bill
Speaker 2: and kennel feet as well. Claudia Sam, you're seeing inflation
Speaker 2: in your cat food discuss.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think I'm doing what a lot of
Speaker 5: Americans are. When things get more expensive, you go switch
Speaker 5: to a cheaper brand. Puffy, my kitty, She's more than
Speaker 5: happy to eat drive Purina cat food. It was on
Speaker 5: sale last week.
Speaker 6: There we go, Doctor Sam, Doctor Sam, how the substitution
Speaker 6: affect Puffy is Parina catfood. Just man's going to walk
Speaker 6: out of the studio, Doctor Sam, Thank you so much
Speaker 6: for joining us in congratulations, without question, the most influential
Speaker 6: academic economist, one of our interns.
Speaker 2: Bennett's killed it today with guest sequence, because right now
Speaker 2: we're gonna look a much more almost philosophically at what
Speaker 2: this boom labor economy means forward for your investments. Nicholas
Speaker 2: cohosts co founder Data Truck Research, and joins this morning.
Speaker 2: You know, Nick, there was a phrase from another time
Speaker 2: in place that it's a morning in America. I guess
Speaker 2: it's a morning in America for a select group. How
Speaker 2: narrow are the halves right now in America? Bang up
Speaker 2: jobs report, bang up consumption. We see it across the
Speaker 2: Tri state area. But how are the havelves doing as
Speaker 2: we go into the summer.
Speaker 1: Surely the halves are having it all. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: a very good market. It's a very good economy for
Speaker 1: the upper twenty percent of the income distribution. But let's
Speaker 1: be fair, it usually is right the wealthy tend to
Speaker 1: have an easier time of it. The bottom eighty percent
Speaker 1: have not had an easy time of it. And we
Speaker 1: see that in data like gasoline consumption. For example, gasoline
Speaker 1: consumption has actually been down year over year for the
Speaker 1: last two months. So as much as the top twenty
Speaker 1: percent are doing well. There is a lot of stress
Speaker 1: in the broader market.
Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney, bank Rade, thirty year mortgage seven point five
Speaker 2: six April twenty fifth, and then two cups of coffee.
Speaker 2: We're down to seven point twenty five percent.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, still not where we needed to go for
Speaker 4: a lot of folks. So, Nick, given some of the
Speaker 4: economic data we've seen, and we've got a FED reserve
Speaker 4: that says it is data driven, how do you think
Speaker 4: this the Fed plays it out over the next several months.
Speaker 1: Oh, I mean, it's pretty clear at this point this
Speaker 1: Job's report doesn't leave a lot of room for interpretation.
Speaker 1: Let's put it that way. The economy, labor market's still strong.
Speaker 1: Demand for labor is still strong, wages are still strong.
Speaker 1: They have to at best be on hold. Which is
Speaker 1: interesting to see how many dots are how many cuts
Speaker 1: they put into the plot next week. I'm guessing it's
Speaker 1: one now, not two. And they've got to play it
Speaker 1: pretty close to the vest and acknowledge the fact that
Speaker 1: as much as they want to see the economy slow
Speaker 1: and wages slow and inflation slow, it's happening only.
Speaker 4: Slowly, right, Nick, we s the two year Treasury of
Speaker 4: moving higher by twelve basis points today to four point
Speaker 4: eight four percent. But we've seen all year this equity
Speaker 4: market can perform with rates at those levels, even a
Speaker 4: little bit higher. How do you think about the equity
Speaker 4: market for the remainder of this year?
Speaker 1: You know, I think large caps certainly still fine. The
Speaker 1: semb'f F one hundred, absolutely fine. It's up call it
Speaker 1: twelve percent year to date and the face of higher rates.
Speaker 1: As you point out, we've got the Jenai story, We've
Speaker 1: got Nvidia, We've got all those things pushing large caps higher.
Speaker 1: Small caps not so much. Right, Russell's up what two
Speaker 1: percent year to date? It's telling a very different story.
Speaker 1: It's telling a rate sensitive story, as it always does,
Speaker 1: very good for large caps and kind of not for
Speaker 1: small caps.
Speaker 2: Nick, there's such a respect on the street for your
Speaker 2: research across assets. What is the character of this bull market?
Speaker 1: The character this bull market is very narrow relatively speaking. Actually,
Speaker 1: we just did a piece of clients last night looking
Speaker 1: at the whole decades returned so far, the all of
Speaker 1: the twenty twenties, because let's face it, it should have
Speaker 1: been a really bad decade. It's going to be a
Speaker 1: pretty good decade. But it's narrow. So it's Lewis large caps,
Speaker 1: not small caps. It's Europe is doing okay, but emerging
Speaker 1: markets are not for every India. You've got a China,
Speaker 1: so it's a very narrow rally. And obviously bonds have
Speaker 1: gotten destroyed for the last four and a half years.
Speaker 1: Going forward, I think it will still be narrow. It's
Speaker 1: going to be narrow till us large caps, us technology
Speaker 1: and hopefully we get enough of a pullback in rates
Speaker 1: to get bonds to work.
Speaker 2: But I can't say enough Paul, how this is a
Speaker 2: Nick Coolis difference. And then we have so many people
Speaker 2: rationalizing and destroyed bond market priced down, yield up four five,
Speaker 2: six standard deviations by looking at spreads, looking forward, forget
Speaker 2: the past. What I hear in emails and on YouTube.
Speaker 2: So many people are underwater in some way or form
Speaker 2: with them.
Speaker 4: Let's top the clawback to what happened from twenty twenty two.
Speaker 4: But Nick, I go out and buy it to your treasury.
Speaker 4: I'm getting near five percent here today. What's wrong with
Speaker 4: buying some fixed income.
Speaker 1: Here these days? I think you're right. I think it's
Speaker 1: a great trade. I think two years are probably the
Speaker 1: easiest trade on the planet right now. Five percent risk free,
Speaker 1: no need to worry, no need to fuss. Maybe maybe
Speaker 1: US equities do ten, but you're getting five for doing
Speaker 1: absolutely nothing and taking no risks. So fives feel pretty good.
Speaker 1: The interesting part of the curve, obviously is ten to thirties.
Speaker 1: What do we do with TLT or the long range
Speaker 1: of the curve? And I think you can own that
Speaker 1: section of the curve here. I don't see inflation rich
Speaker 1: ricocheting higher again, and I think you'll make a little
Speaker 1: bit after inflation, even at the long range of the curve.
Speaker 4: Hey, Nick, so in the equity markets, you talked about
Speaker 4: the breath or the lack thereof breath. I mean I
Speaker 4: learned in business school that's not a good thing. I mean,
Speaker 4: doesn't this market have to see a broadening out here
Speaker 4: or we're set up for maybe a big fall somewhere
Speaker 4: along the line.
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's a great question, and you're right.
Speaker 1: I mean, the classic theory is, you know, you want real,
Speaker 1: the broad broad based. We just don't have a broad
Speaker 1: based equity story right now. We have one thing. We
Speaker 1: have Generative AI. We have one stock we have in Nvidia,
Speaker 1: and so the philosophical or the fundamental leadership here is sound.
Speaker 1: It's a good idea. Jennai is a powerful trend, but
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of ways to play it. So
Speaker 1: you have a very narrow set of leadership as basically
Speaker 1: as we all know five names. So I don't think
Speaker 1: that's necessarily unhealthy, but it does mean like small caps
Speaker 1: aren't way to play Jenny. I there's no there's very
Speaker 1: few Jennai plays in small caps. You've got to go
Speaker 1: large caps.
Speaker 2: Nick on a reading list this weekend for all of
Speaker 2: Wall Street. It's Michael Morbison over at Morgan Stanley doing
Speaker 2: a wonderful study. I have already read it, folks on
Speaker 2: concentration in the market, Nick call Us, how to mere mortals,
Speaker 2: I mean, forget about the phrase a carefully diversified portfolio
Speaker 2: or balanced portfolio, all this mumbo jumbo from thirty years ago.
Speaker 2: How do you partake, Nick Cholis? Given the concentration that
Speaker 2: Michael Mobison writes.
Speaker 1: About, Yeah, well, first of all, I've known Mike for
Speaker 1: thirty years. He's a genius level intellect and that's a
Speaker 1: great piece to read that. Putting that aside, what he says,
Speaker 1: is the way the stock mark's behaving is rational. We
Speaker 1: are getting a lot of profit growth in technology and
Speaker 1: generative AI kind of themes. So it doesn't say it's
Speaker 1: fairly valued or over on your value. But there's a
Speaker 1: reason why stocks have worked out this way. And the
Speaker 1: question is we'll continue to work out this way? Well
Speaker 1: we have this concentration of returns and the short answer
Speaker 1: I think is yes, where else does human innovation kind
Speaker 1: of hit the full com point of profitability harder than
Speaker 1: in technology and jen ai. That's why tech works, That's
Speaker 1: why the stocks are working.
Speaker 2: Nick, don'tk go away. I got to scream out on YouTube.
Speaker 2: They're like, Tom, give us a data check. Here with
Speaker 2: all that we've done here this labor secretary, we miss that.
Speaker 2: Here's what you need to know, folks. Futures are negative
Speaker 2: to they're now improved negative twelve off the shock of
Speaker 2: a boom jobs report, the VICS twelve point eight three
Speaker 2: as well, NASTAC doing better, down only two tenths of
Speaker 2: a percent. The Sweeney yield four point eight four percent
Speaker 2: of the two year yield, a ten year real yield
Speaker 2: two point one point one percent, up a solid ten
Speaker 2: basis points I got to bring it up, Paul. I mean,
Speaker 2: we're gonna get an eighty dollars print on bread crude. Yeah,
Speaker 2: you know, I mean we were looking at sixty nine
Speaker 2: dollars in West Texas. Ye, Intermediate didn't get there. A
Speaker 2: little excuse me lift to oil here in the last
Speaker 2: couple of days.
Speaker 4: I gotta ask Nick this question. Nick, you're at Haverford College.
Speaker 4: You call up your parents and you said you want
Speaker 4: to major in Near Eastern archaeology.
Speaker 1: What did they say to that? They were oddly accommodative.
Speaker 1: I got to give him a lot of credits. They said,
Speaker 1: do whatever it is you want to do. And I
Speaker 1: think it's because they knew me well enough to know
Speaker 1: that that wasn't going to be the endpoint for my career.
Speaker 1: They knew that ultimately I wanted financial success and I
Speaker 1: wasn't get that as a professor, and so they kind
Speaker 1: of trusted their judgment and they're absolutely right, you know, majoring.
Speaker 4: And then Nick barbelb dot he saved the day by
Speaker 4: getting his NBA from the Universe Chicago.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that'll do it. Yeah, So Nick, we're
Speaker 2: gonna walk away from you here right now. But let's
Speaker 2: get one final question, and do you suggest in the
Speaker 2: nearies that Iran will continue with a theocracy or can
Speaker 2: they find their way back to a more representative government.
Speaker 1: Oh, police states are very difficult to unseat. Unfortunately. I
Speaker 1: think for the people of Iran, they're going to have
Speaker 1: to live with that government for a while longer.
Speaker 2: And International Relations, Nick Coles, thank you so much. Nick,
Speaker 2: greatly greatly appreciate it. You got to get through the newspapers, folks,
Speaker 2: because Paul's completely been out of shape about the song
Speaker 2: we're going to end, so we got to explain that.
Speaker 2: Your daily look at the front pages with Lisa Matteo
Speaker 2: brought to you by Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers they charge
Speaker 2: dollar margin loan rates some five point eight percent rates
Speaker 2: subject to change. Learn more at ibkr dot com slash
Speaker 2: compare Lisa, what are you having a Friday?
Speaker 7: Well, we got the Associated Press are saying the number
Speaker 7: of zombie companies on the rise. We're talking about companies
Speaker 7: so much debt they're struggling to survive, barely able to
Speaker 7: pay even the interest rates on their loans. So here
Speaker 7: are the numbers. Associated Press analysis. The numbers stored nearly
Speaker 7: seven thousand publicly traded companies around the world two thousand
Speaker 7: in the US alone, and that includes like companies that
Speaker 7: run Carnival cruise lines, Jet Blue, Wayfair, Pelotons. So these
Speaker 7: are big companies and the AP is saying a lot
Speaker 7: of them won't survive because the dates are approaching when
Speaker 7: they have to start exactating those loans.
Speaker 2: Two years ago, Paul, my theme for the year was
Speaker 2: a great zombie roll up. Yeah, maybe that was early,
Speaker 2: but here it is.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you've got companies that you know, have higher levels
Speaker 4: debt and they have them a low rates. Now they
Speaker 4: got to refinance these things, and the rates are so
Speaker 4: much higher here it really calls into question their ability
Speaker 4: to pay interest, to pay the principle, and all those
Speaker 4: type types of things. So it's not it's not unusual
Speaker 4: in this type part of the cycle, but here we are.
Speaker 7: And if they go bankrupt that it's even worse because
Speaker 7: they have all these workers and people, but.
Speaker 2: The debt's here. It's like it's like the commercial real estate,
Speaker 2: the office buildings Class B, class C. You know, you
Speaker 2: extend and pretend and you wait and you wait until
Speaker 2: you can. I mean, I wonder over the weekend, what
Speaker 2: will we see nationwide in foreclosures and the other things.
Speaker 4: But carnival cruise lines, they will earn their way out
Speaker 4: of it, you know, like the market doesn't have any
Speaker 4: concern about it.
Speaker 2: Something like that just got you know, have you ever
Speaker 2: done that? Like the fifteen story tall cruise was in
Speaker 2: Venice once and one of those boats went right by,
Speaker 2: just like in the movies. It was like it was
Speaker 2: to me it was rude. But there they are. They're huge, man,
Speaker 2: next do it.
Speaker 7: You were just talking about this the NBA and the
Speaker 7: broadcast rights and all that, so this is kind of
Speaker 7: a sidebar you have. The NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, he
Speaker 7: said the league is going to turn to expansion, probably
Speaker 7: go overseas, you know, beyond the Toronto Raptors, you know,
Speaker 7: go beyond after this whole TV deal thing works out.
Speaker 7: He said he's thinking long term. Mexico City actually considered
Speaker 7: a contender for a new NBA franchise. But you'll have
Speaker 7: a lot of people who are interested in owning teams.
Speaker 7: If Lebron Jamee retires, Lebron James could be a part
Speaker 7: of it. Shaquille O'Neil says he's express interest in ownership
Speaker 7: of times.
Speaker 2: I mean, what's interesting here, Paul, And let's go to
Speaker 2: rule four at the next game where Paul swinging Hold's scoring,
Speaker 2: and the answer is will it dilute the game? I mean,
Speaker 2: are there enough players out.
Speaker 4: There to YEA plenty of players, particularly internationally tom So
Speaker 4: many players in the NBA come from Europe in particular.
Speaker 4: I mean, they could start a league. The NBA could
Speaker 4: start a league in Europe tomorrow. That's how global the
Speaker 4: basketball league is.
Speaker 2: Basketball. So you need so much more global than even
Speaker 2: American football, a separate league or London player New York Knicks.
Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, I think the logistics there
Speaker 4: would be very difficult. But I'm just saying that the
Speaker 4: basketball as a sport is a global sport, more so
Speaker 4: than say American football. American football. You bring that over
Speaker 4: to London year.
Speaker 2: I've done in a bar.
Speaker 4: It's right, it's fine. I mean people but it's but
Speaker 4: if they don't. But you know, in Europe, Spain, all
Speaker 4: over it it's it's a global business.
Speaker 2: I've done the NFL just outside the Tower of London
Speaker 2: in a bar selling to Americans and it's just not
Speaker 2: I mean, it's foreign. It's all there is to it?
Speaker 2: What else do you have to do?
Speaker 7: So the New York Times talking about concerts and if
Speaker 7: they're starting to die out. You Jennifer Lopez, she canceled
Speaker 7: her concert twenty twenty three.
Speaker 3: It was a good year, right, You had.
Speaker 7: Taylor Swift, you had Beyonce, Drake, Bruce Bringsteen, you know,
Speaker 7: he was twenty twenty three. But there have been cancelations.
Speaker 7: Some sales are slowing. You had Coachella. Those tickets normally
Speaker 7: sell out, but there were still some available when it opened.
Speaker 7: So they're saying that the market for concert tours could
Speaker 7: be slowing. But other people are saying, you know what,
Speaker 7: it's good Live Nation saying so far sales are up
Speaker 7: from the same point.
Speaker 2: What do you think? I mean when you go to
Speaker 2: see Bruce, what's the night costume? Oh it's car, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: it's dinner.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's crazy, but it's a it's a once in
Speaker 4: every two or three, four or five year tech type thing,
Speaker 4: so you just blow it off.
Speaker 2: But I think the.
Speaker 4: Issue for concerts time was that was one of those
Speaker 4: businesses coming out of the pandemic, when we switched from
Speaker 4: just buying goods like Peloton bikes, experiences, and one of
Speaker 4: the big experiences was going back to concerts and that
Speaker 4: we've had twenty two twenty three were just blowout years.
Speaker 2: What I learned, what I learned on this this week
Speaker 2: is liz Ane Saunders is never going to see Taylor Swift. Now,
Speaker 2: you know, maybe she'll see Black Keys or something with
Speaker 2: an edge to it. But the major thing we learned
Speaker 2: in surveillance is liz Anne Sanders is not going to
Speaker 2: be in Paris with Stephanie r there at a whole
Speaker 2: watching Taylor. I think Lisa was there, she just won't
Speaker 2: admit it. What else do you have?
Speaker 4: This one?
Speaker 7: This is for sleep away camps. Okay, this is what
Speaker 7: we're talking about. Not sure if you ever send your
Speaker 7: kids over to summer sleep away camp. But moms and
Speaker 7: dads are dishing out even more money. They're hiring people
Speaker 7: to pack for them to pack their kids. So the
Speaker 7: sleep away camp itself is like fifteen grand out of control.
Speaker 2: We fortunately Paul has to talk about a song to
Speaker 2: save me. This is a total American scam. In America,
Speaker 2: you basically pack up the bedroom and move ity bidty
Speaker 2: to camp.
Speaker 4: It's just a ridiculous Damien was talking about this.
Speaker 2: I wanted to say that afterthought, We'll be going to
Speaker 2: a camp in Scotland, and basically the page is they
Speaker 2: may bring one knapsack and one suitcase.
Speaker 3: That's it.
Speaker 2: That's it. That's my kind of camp.
Speaker 7: See the problem is these camps now they have like
Speaker 7: one hundred items.
Speaker 4: That's that's the packing list.
Speaker 2: Unbelievable.
Speaker 7: So they're hiring these organizers for like one hundred and
Speaker 7: twenty five dollars an hour to get them there and
Speaker 7: also to pack them when they come back. So that
Speaker 7: way the kids have their suffpacked, their laundry is done.
Speaker 7: They come home, Mom just opens up the case and
Speaker 7: that's it. They could spend more time with the kids.
Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo Lisa Mateo with the newspapers on a Friday.
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