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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us

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Speaker 2: now the one person I wanted to talk to her

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Speaker 2: commercial free year through the fur Good morning, huge audience

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Speaker 2: on YouTube. Good morning to all of you Lindsey Pigs.

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Speaker 2: It joins us who's pushed way again consensus and it said,

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Speaker 2: this is a fed of stability or even rate increase.

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Speaker 2: You look like a genius this morning. Are you going

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Speaker 2: to look like a genius in thirty days for the

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Speaker 2: report come July?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think so. Even if we did see a

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Speaker 3: hotter than expected print in even the next one or

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Speaker 3: two inflation reports, it's not going to be enough data

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Speaker 3: to convince the FED, particularly against very clear tight conditions

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Speaker 3: in the labor market. And the most concerning component of

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Speaker 3: this report for the FED is going to be that

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Speaker 3: wage component. We continue to see pressure on wages as

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Speaker 3: labor demands outpaces labor supply. And this is not something

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Speaker 3: that's going to be fixed overnight. This is a rebalancing

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Speaker 3: that is going to have to occur over months, a

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Speaker 3: prolonged period. And so when we look to the FED,

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Speaker 3: who's telling us they need very clear evidence of disinflation,

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Speaker 3: many months of that evidence that says that while raycut

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Speaker 3: may be eventual, eventually does appear to increasingly be a

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty five event.

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Speaker 4: You know, Tom, This top Live blog continues to be

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Speaker 4: my go to when you get these big things. And

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Speaker 4: here's something just posted there. The two hundred and seventy

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Speaker 4: two thousand payroll gain was bigger than every last one

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Speaker 4: of the seventy seven estimates in the Bloomberg survey. So

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Speaker 4: there you go, Lindsey, where's this demand for labor coming from?

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Speaker 4: I mean, who's hiring all these people?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think it's pretty broad based. There isn't one

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Speaker 3: sector of the economy that's booming. What we're seeing is

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Speaker 3: an overall steady level of expansion across several key categories

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Speaker 3: of the economy. Now again, I don't want to overseell

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Speaker 3: what we are seeing in the labor market or the

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Speaker 3: broader domestic economy, because we are starting to see somewhat

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Speaker 3: of a rebalancing. Labor market conditions. Absolutely, they're still tight,

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Speaker 3: but they are somewhat less type than what we saw

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Speaker 3: not just at the start of the year, but over

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three. So we are starting

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Speaker 3: to see a rebalancing. But the problem is the overall impact,

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Speaker 3: or that that rebalancing is occurring at a much slower

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Speaker 3: case than the market or specifically the FED had anticipated.

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Speaker 3: Still positive, but we are starting to see that second

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Speaker 3: derivative decline.

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Speaker 2: And Paul aw you get out the HP twelve C.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, if you have pigs on, you

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Speaker 2: got to get out the HP twelve C. And I

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Speaker 2: do the three months moving average, which in March was

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Speaker 2: a big number OMG. April was a lesser number. And

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Speaker 2: now we just got another big number. Lindsey, I'm rocking

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty thousand ish over the last ninety

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Speaker 2: days per month six years ago. That's a boom statistic.

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Speaker 2: Are we in a boom labor economy?

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Speaker 3: Well, I do cost and against reading in too much

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Speaker 3: to the headline payroll number, because we are starting to

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Speaker 3: see somewhat of divergence between the payrolls and the household survey.

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Speaker 3: Payrolls are consistently reaching new highs month after months, but

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Speaker 3: the household survey really has shown somewhat of fatigue plateauing

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Speaker 3: over the past I would say, six to eight months.

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Speaker 3: The disconnect, of course reflecting the fact that we consistently

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Speaker 3: underaccount the working age population, particularly now as we see

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Speaker 3: these large flows of immigration coming into the economy, legal

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Speaker 3: and illegal.

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Speaker 2: But also what.

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Speaker 3: We're seeing is this shift in the demand or the

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Speaker 3: type of jobs being created in terms of full time

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Speaker 3: versus part time. Now, I haven't dug into the details

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Speaker 3: of this report specifically, last month was almost entirely full time,

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Speaker 3: but if we go prior to that six to eight months,

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Speaker 3: that was almost entirely part time employment, which, as we know,

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Speaker 3: part time hires typically have more than one gig. And

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Speaker 3: then of course you're counted more than once in the

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Speaker 3: payroll report, which could artificially inflate. That number again still positive,

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Speaker 3: but I do think there's some underlying signs of the

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Speaker 3: economy starting to cool that that rebalancing. As I mentioned, so.

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Speaker 4: We had four point one percent average hourly earnings year

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Speaker 4: of year four point one percent. That's well above the

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Speaker 4: three point nine percent consensus. Last month was also revised

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Speaker 4: a little bit higher. Wage inflation, Is that a thing?

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Speaker 3: Well, it's certainly a concern, absolutely, and concern not just

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Speaker 3: for the FED, but wages. Surprisingly strong wage data for

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Speaker 3: the BOE the ECB. That was also noted as a

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Speaker 3: concern for the pathway going forward. So even as we

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Speaker 3: see some of the supply side components providing ample relief

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Speaker 3: to inflation as economy is reopened, tradelines come back online

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Speaker 3: in the aftermath of COVID, what we're seeing is some

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Speaker 3: of these variables under the purview of global central banks

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Speaker 3: are showing less improvement as we have allowed in some

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Speaker 3: ways inflation to become entrenched in the economy, with central

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Speaker 3: banks sitting on the sidelines and allowing above target inflation

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Speaker 3: for a long period of time.

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Speaker 2: Lindzi, when you were taking your PhD, you had the

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Speaker 2: unenviable task of studying the terror for Michigan Claudia some

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Speaker 2: and of course Claudia has been forceful that we don't

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Speaker 2: have enough evident data for recession. Clearly she's been right.

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Speaker 2: She's on with us in a moment, folks. Clearly Lindsay

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Speaker 2: Piggs has been right that the economy is much better.

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Speaker 2: But how bifurcated is the economy now between the haves

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Speaker 2: and the have nots.

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Speaker 3: Well, I would push back. I don't think the storyline

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Speaker 3: is between the rich and the poor, the have and

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Speaker 3: the have not. I think the divide is between the

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Speaker 3: asset holders and the non asset holders. Because what we've

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Speaker 3: seen is while the average American household is still outspending,

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Speaker 3: they are feeling pain from higher prices, higher borrowing costs,

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Speaker 3: the resumption of student debt payments. But there's another category

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Speaker 3: of consumers that have experienced asset increase in net wealth

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Speaker 3: to the tune of twelve trillion dollars over the past year.

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Speaker 3: And that's possible thanks in Part two, this massive increase

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Speaker 3: in asset prices via the equity market, via the housing market.

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Speaker 3: So when we paint with a broad brush, the consumer

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Speaker 3: remains resilient, that's very much true, but the level of

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Speaker 3: resiliency is very much divided between the asset holders and

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Speaker 3: the non asset holders in this economy.

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Speaker 2: Lindsey think of someone doctor figs. It was Stifel here,

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Speaker 2: and of course she's done a yeoman's job of pushing

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Speaker 2: against they're going to cut, cut, cut, just saying everybody

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Speaker 2: calm down and wait for the data to let you

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Speaker 2: know where we are. Now. We got Claudia sim coming

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Speaker 2: up in moments because of is it Roaring Kitty? Do

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Speaker 2: I have that right now?

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Jess's going to brief here. I was like, you know,

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Speaker 2: why do we need to talk to Jess Metton about

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Speaker 2: Roaring Kitty? And the answer is we've gone from sixty

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Speaker 2: seven to thirty six. We're now breaking down to a

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Speaker 2: new loath this morning, so we'll get to Jess Matton. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: on Roaring Kiddy.

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Speaker 4: Game stop down twenty three percent pre market trading time.

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Speaker 4: They had some news that they filed to sell up

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Speaker 4: the seventy five million shares to take advantage of this

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Speaker 4: what had been one hundred and sixty percent increase in

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Speaker 4: the stop the year.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of Hello Kitty, Claudia sam joins right now where

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Speaker 2: there cats that she heards on a weekend basis. Claudia Sam,

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Speaker 2: of course, providing all sorts of important economic analysis, hugely

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Speaker 2: influential right now with New Century Advisors. Claudia, you nailed it.

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Speaker 2: Just everybody's saying, Claudia Sam's right, recession, recession, and you're like,

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Speaker 2: wait for the data. Is this a numph of Is

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Speaker 2: this enough of an oomph positive jobs report where you're

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Speaker 2: not looking out to the first week of July, but

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Speaker 2: you've got to get out further to get any kind

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Speaker 2: of caution on this economy.

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Speaker 5: This is good news today. Jobs days have been good

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Speaker 5: news in the past couple years. We see a resilient

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Speaker 5: labor market. We have had a job full recovery for

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Speaker 5: the first time in a very long time, and that's good.

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Speaker 5: So you know, I understand that sometimes markets think good

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Speaker 5: news is bad news and it's bad news for the Fed. No,

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Speaker 5: this is good news for the Fed. People have jobs.

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Speaker 5: It is good.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I mean the FED starting when they look

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Speaker 2: like a genius right now in terms of the parlor game,

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Speaker 2: which I don't care about, but the overlay of that

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Speaker 2: is a sub two percent GDP growth. Is that embedded

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Speaker 2: into your study now where you're looking at finally real

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Speaker 2: GDP growth actually pulls down.

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Speaker 5: So I will channel FED chair J. Powell and say

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Speaker 5: we look at the totality of the data. Right, we

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Speaker 5: have to bring all the pieces together. You can't just

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Speaker 5: look at the labor market and say recession or not.

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Speaker 5: I don't lean just on the song rule and it's

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Speaker 5: my rule, right, So, and it's very important a couple

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Speaker 5: of pieces. Always look under the hood.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 5: We need to see the consumer we're keep going. We

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Speaker 5: need to see the businesses investing. We've largely seen that

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Speaker 5: it's going to be bumpy, and never take one month

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Speaker 5: and run with it, like, we really have to look

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Speaker 5: three months, six months, and if you do that story,

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Speaker 5: you've got the moderation today is not throwing that off,

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Speaker 5: but it's a good moderation. It's a sustainable path we

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Speaker 5: are on.

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Speaker 2: Paul, I'm going to go this three month moving average

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Speaker 2: is like two fifty and firm payrolls ten years ago.

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Speaker 4: That was a boom mcconna, that was a Boomcconnay, it

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Speaker 4: looks like we're fully employed. I guess let's look at

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Speaker 4: the wages here, Claudia. We had last month we revised

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Speaker 4: up a little bit to four percent this month that

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Speaker 4: came in at four point one percent on an annualized basis,

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Speaker 4: is that wage inflation. Are we looking at the wage

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Speaker 4: inflation there?

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Speaker 5: We have seen no evidence of a wage price spiral

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Speaker 5: its entire cycle, and if you didn't see it in

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty two, I have there is no story for

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Speaker 5: it right now. Again, we need a resilient economy. We

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Speaker 5: need paychecks out there so people keep spending. The FED

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Speaker 5: is going to wait, that's just kind of how they roll.

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Speaker 5: So we want to make sure that that patient side

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Speaker 5: does not take us all down. And it looks like

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Speaker 5: they got some resilience and that's a good big picture,

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Speaker 5: not just for the Fed and their waiting game.

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Speaker 4: So Chloudia, how do you think about the immigration, both

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Speaker 4: legal and illegal and how that impacts some of the

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Speaker 4: data we've been seeing over the last I don't know,

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Speaker 4: six or twelve months, it seems to be getting a

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Speaker 4: little bit more play out there.

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Speaker 5: So, first, from the lens of the economy, the immigration,

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Speaker 5: the pickup and immigration to this country has been good

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Speaker 5: for the economy. We had widespread labor shortages and those

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Speaker 5: really buy and large are taken care of. Wasn't just immigrants.

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Speaker 5: We had women coming back strong, we had other people

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Speaker 5: and marginalized groups coming in. But we needed workers. They

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Speaker 5: weren't displacing workers. They were filling job that weren't getting built.

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Speaker 5: That's good, of course. Bigger picture, there's a you know,

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Speaker 5: conversation to have about how we do that in an

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Speaker 5: orderly way right now. So that's the economy what you

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Speaker 5: asked about with the data. Throw one more measurement challenge

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Speaker 5: at the beer of labor statistics, right like, it is

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Speaker 5: just very hard to survey these people. They might show

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Speaker 5: up in household survey, they might not. They might show

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Speaker 5: up an establishment survey. So but we have a lot

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Speaker 5: of things that are making the data hard to read

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Speaker 5: right now, a.

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Speaker 2: Threat to society. Paul is always an economists that pulls

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Speaker 2: out Miriam Webster. Claudia Sam with a blistering essay for

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Opinion here in recent days. Claudia Sam on inflation,

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Speaker 2: What did you learn in your study? I mean, of

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Speaker 2: course you have to quote University of Michigan statistics. I

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Speaker 2: get it, it's the franchise out there. But Claudia, what

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Speaker 2: is the character of the inflation into this summer?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 5: So the point of the piece was, yes, there is

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Speaker 5: when we talk about inflation. People are upset about inflation,

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Speaker 5: and economists try and convince the noise getting better. This

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Speaker 5: is more than economics, right, because we are talking about

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Speaker 5: the same thing and increase in prices. That is an

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Speaker 5: economic phenomenon, But there's a lot more that's getting wrapped

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Speaker 5: up in inflation. And if we're going to have a

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Speaker 5: productive debate, we need to get the economics sorted out

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Speaker 5: with the economist in that bin, and then there's another

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Speaker 5: discussion and bring in other experts, like let's stop pretending

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Speaker 5: this is all about the economy.

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Speaker 4: So Claudia, where does this federal reserve go from here?

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Speaker 4: It sounds like and I'm looking at the market here, boy,

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Speaker 4: they can just wait, no problem waiting here and maybe

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Speaker 4: even into next year.

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Speaker 5: The Fed has a dual mandate, so regardless of what

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Speaker 5: the Fed quote unquote can do, the FED, when inflation

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Speaker 5: is back down on a sustainable two percent, they're supposed

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Speaker 5: to be out of the way. Their goal is not

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Speaker 5: to lean on nor is it their mandate to lean

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Speaker 5: on the economy as long as possible. So I think

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Speaker 5: that's you know this, today is a good day in saying, hey,

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Speaker 5: we're not creating towards a recession that could lead to

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Speaker 5: really fast cuts, very disruptive. Right, and yet I don't

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Speaker 5: think there's anything here that says, oh, the Fed's gonna

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Speaker 5: wait until next year.

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Speaker 2: Okay. Clouding that one final question, we need to go

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Speaker 2: to Claudia Sam territory. Claudia Sam, you know that the

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Speaker 2: Science Diet CD stress bag for cat food it's a moonshot.

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Speaker 2: It was one hundred dollars for an eighteen pound bag,

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Speaker 2: and that puppies pop on one hundred and fourteen dollars.

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing the same thing for the for vet bill

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Speaker 2: and kennel feet as well. Claudia Sam, you're seeing inflation

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Speaker 2: in your cat food discuss.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think I'm doing what a lot of

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Speaker 5: Americans are. When things get more expensive, you go switch

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Speaker 5: to a cheaper brand. Puffy, my kitty, She's more than

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Speaker 5: happy to eat drive Purina cat food. It was on

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Speaker 5: sale last week.

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Speaker 6: There we go, Doctor Sam, Doctor Sam, how the substitution

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Speaker 6: affect Puffy is Parina catfood. Just man's going to walk

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Speaker 6: out of the studio, Doctor Sam, Thank you so much

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Speaker 6: for joining us in congratulations, without question, the most influential

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Speaker 6: academic economist, one of our interns.

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Speaker 2: Bennett's killed it today with guest sequence, because right now

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Speaker 2: we're gonna look a much more almost philosophically at what

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Speaker 2: this boom labor economy means forward for your investments. Nicholas

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Speaker 2: cohosts co founder Data Truck Research, and joins this morning.

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Speaker 2: You know, Nick, there was a phrase from another time

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Speaker 2: in place that it's a morning in America. I guess

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Speaker 2: it's a morning in America for a select group. How

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Speaker 2: narrow are the halves right now in America? Bang up

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Speaker 2: jobs report, bang up consumption. We see it across the

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Speaker 2: Tri state area. But how are the havelves doing as

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Speaker 2: we go into the summer.

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Speaker 1: Surely the halves are having it all. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: a very good market. It's a very good economy for

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Speaker 1: the upper twenty percent of the income distribution. But let's

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Speaker 1: be fair, it usually is right the wealthy tend to

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Speaker 1: have an easier time of it. The bottom eighty percent

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Speaker 1: have not had an easy time of it. And we

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Speaker 1: see that in data like gasoline consumption. For example, gasoline

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Speaker 1: consumption has actually been down year over year for the

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Speaker 1: last two months. So as much as the top twenty

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Speaker 1: percent are doing well. There is a lot of stress

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Speaker 1: in the broader market.

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Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney, bank Rade, thirty year mortgage seven point five

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Speaker 2: six April twenty fifth, and then two cups of coffee.

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Speaker 2: We're down to seven point twenty five percent.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, still not where we needed to go for

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Speaker 4: a lot of folks. So, Nick, given some of the

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Speaker 4: economic data we've seen, and we've got a FED reserve

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Speaker 4: that says it is data driven, how do you think

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Speaker 4: this the Fed plays it out over the next several months.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I mean, it's pretty clear at this point this

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Speaker 1: Job's report doesn't leave a lot of room for interpretation.

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Speaker 1: Let's put it that way. The economy, labor market's still strong.

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Speaker 1: Demand for labor is still strong, wages are still strong.

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Speaker 1: They have to at best be on hold. Which is

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Speaker 1: interesting to see how many dots are how many cuts

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Speaker 1: they put into the plot next week. I'm guessing it's

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Speaker 1: one now, not two. And they've got to play it

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Speaker 1: pretty close to the vest and acknowledge the fact that

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Speaker 1: as much as they want to see the economy slow

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Speaker 1: and wages slow and inflation slow, it's happening only.

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Speaker 4: Slowly, right, Nick, we s the two year Treasury of

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Speaker 4: moving higher by twelve basis points today to four point

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Speaker 4: eight four percent. But we've seen all year this equity

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Speaker 4: market can perform with rates at those levels, even a

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Speaker 4: little bit higher. How do you think about the equity

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Speaker 4: market for the remainder of this year?

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Speaker 1: You know, I think large caps certainly still fine. The

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Speaker 1: semb'f F one hundred, absolutely fine. It's up call it

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Speaker 1: twelve percent year to date and the face of higher rates.

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Speaker 1: As you point out, we've got the Jenai story, We've

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Speaker 1: got Nvidia, We've got all those things pushing large caps higher.

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Speaker 1: Small caps not so much. Right, Russell's up what two

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Speaker 1: percent year to date? It's telling a very different story.

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Speaker 1: It's telling a rate sensitive story, as it always does,

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Speaker 1: very good for large caps and kind of not for

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Speaker 1: small caps.

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Speaker 2: Nick, there's such a respect on the street for your

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Speaker 2: research across assets. What is the character of this bull market?

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Speaker 1: The character this bull market is very narrow relatively speaking. Actually,

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Speaker 1: we just did a piece of clients last night looking

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Speaker 1: at the whole decades returned so far, the all of

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenties, because let's face it, it should have

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Speaker 1: been a really bad decade. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: pretty good decade. But it's narrow. So it's Lewis large caps,

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Speaker 1: not small caps. It's Europe is doing okay, but emerging

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Speaker 1: markets are not for every India. You've got a China,

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Speaker 1: so it's a very narrow rally. And obviously bonds have

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Speaker 1: gotten destroyed for the last four and a half years.

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Speaker 1: Going forward, I think it will still be narrow. It's

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Speaker 1: going to be narrow till us large caps, us technology

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Speaker 1: and hopefully we get enough of a pullback in rates

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Speaker 1: to get bonds to work.

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Speaker 2: But I can't say enough Paul, how this is a

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Speaker 2: Nick Coolis difference. And then we have so many people

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Speaker 2: rationalizing and destroyed bond market priced down, yield up four five,

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Speaker 2: six standard deviations by looking at spreads, looking forward, forget

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Speaker 2: the past. What I hear in emails and on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: So many people are underwater in some way or form

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Speaker 2: with them.

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Speaker 4: Let's top the clawback to what happened from twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 4: But Nick, I go out and buy it to your treasury.

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Speaker 4: I'm getting near five percent here today. What's wrong with

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Speaker 4: buying some fixed income.

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Speaker 1: Here these days? I think you're right. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a great trade. I think two years are probably the

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Speaker 1: easiest trade on the planet right now. Five percent risk free,

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Speaker 1: no need to worry, no need to fuss. Maybe maybe

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Speaker 1: US equities do ten, but you're getting five for doing

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Speaker 1: absolutely nothing and taking no risks. So fives feel pretty good.

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Speaker 1: The interesting part of the curve, obviously is ten to thirties.

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Speaker 1: What do we do with TLT or the long range

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Speaker 1: of the curve? And I think you can own that

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Speaker 1: section of the curve here. I don't see inflation rich

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Speaker 1: ricocheting higher again, and I think you'll make a little

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Speaker 1: bit after inflation, even at the long range of the curve.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Nick, so in the equity markets, you talked about

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Speaker 4: the breath or the lack thereof breath. I mean I

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Speaker 4: learned in business school that's not a good thing. I mean,

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Speaker 4: doesn't this market have to see a broadening out here

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Speaker 4: or we're set up for maybe a big fall somewhere

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Speaker 4: along the line.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's it's a great question, and you're right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the classic theory is, you know, you want real,

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Speaker 1: the broad broad based. We just don't have a broad

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Speaker 1: based equity story right now. We have one thing. We

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Speaker 1: have Generative AI. We have one stock we have in Nvidia,

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Speaker 1: and so the philosophical or the fundamental leadership here is sound.

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Speaker 1: It's a good idea. Jennai is a powerful trend, but

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Speaker 1: there's not a lot of ways to play it. So

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Speaker 1: you have a very narrow set of leadership as basically

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Speaker 1: as we all know five names. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: that's necessarily unhealthy, but it does mean like small caps

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Speaker 1: aren't way to play Jenny. I there's no there's very

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Speaker 1: few Jennai plays in small caps. You've got to go

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Speaker 1: large caps.

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Speaker 2: Nick on a reading list this weekend for all of

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Speaker 2: Wall Street. It's Michael Morbison over at Morgan Stanley doing

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Speaker 2: a wonderful study. I have already read it, folks on

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Speaker 2: concentration in the market, Nick call Us, how to mere mortals,

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Speaker 2: I mean, forget about the phrase a carefully diversified portfolio

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Speaker 2: or balanced portfolio, all this mumbo jumbo from thirty years ago.

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Speaker 2: How do you partake, Nick Cholis? Given the concentration that

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Speaker 2: Michael Mobison writes.

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Speaker 1: About, Yeah, well, first of all, I've known Mike for

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Speaker 1: thirty years. He's a genius level intellect and that's a

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Speaker 1: great piece to read that. Putting that aside, what he says,

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Speaker 1: is the way the stock mark's behaving is rational. We

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Speaker 1: are getting a lot of profit growth in technology and

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Speaker 1: generative AI kind of themes. So it doesn't say it's

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Speaker 1: fairly valued or over on your value. But there's a

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Speaker 1: reason why stocks have worked out this way. And the

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Speaker 1: question is we'll continue to work out this way? Well

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Speaker 1: we have this concentration of returns and the short answer

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Speaker 1: I think is yes, where else does human innovation kind

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Speaker 1: of hit the full com point of profitability harder than

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Speaker 1: in technology and jen ai. That's why tech works, That's

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Speaker 1: why the stocks are working.

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Speaker 2: Nick, don'tk go away. I got to scream out on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: They're like, Tom, give us a data check. Here with

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Speaker 2: all that we've done here this labor secretary, we miss that.

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Speaker 2: Here's what you need to know, folks. Futures are negative

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Speaker 2: to they're now improved negative twelve off the shock of

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Speaker 2: a boom jobs report, the VICS twelve point eight three

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Speaker 2: as well, NASTAC doing better, down only two tenths of

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Speaker 2: a percent. The Sweeney yield four point eight four percent

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Speaker 2: of the two year yield, a ten year real yield

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Speaker 2: two point one point one percent, up a solid ten

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Speaker 2: basis points I got to bring it up, Paul. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna get an eighty dollars print on bread crude. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: you know, I mean we were looking at sixty nine

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Speaker 2: dollars in West Texas. Ye, Intermediate didn't get there. A

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Speaker 2: little excuse me lift to oil here in the last

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Speaker 2: couple of days.

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Speaker 4: I gotta ask Nick this question. Nick, you're at Haverford College.

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Speaker 4: You call up your parents and you said you want

434
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 4: to major in Near Eastern archaeology.

435
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 1: What did they say to that? They were oddly accommodative.

436
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 1: I got to give him a lot of credits. They said,

437
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 1: do whatever it is you want to do. And I

438
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: think it's because they knew me well enough to know

439
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 1: that that wasn't going to be the endpoint for my career.

440
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 1: They knew that ultimately I wanted financial success and I

441
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 1: wasn't get that as a professor, and so they kind

442
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: of trusted their judgment and they're absolutely right, you know, majoring.

443
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 4: And then Nick barbelb dot he saved the day by

444
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 4: getting his NBA from the Universe Chicago.

445
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that'll do it. Yeah, So Nick, we're

446
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: gonna walk away from you here right now. But let's

447
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 2: get one final question, and do you suggest in the

448
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: nearies that Iran will continue with a theocracy or can

449
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 2: they find their way back to a more representative government.

450
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 1: Oh, police states are very difficult to unseat. Unfortunately. I

451
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: think for the people of Iran, they're going to have

452
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 1: to live with that government for a while longer.

453
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 2: And International Relations, Nick Coles, thank you so much. Nick,

454
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 2: greatly greatly appreciate it. You got to get through the newspapers, folks,

455
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 2: because Paul's completely been out of shape about the song

456
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 2: we're going to end, so we got to explain that.

457
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 2: Your daily look at the front pages with Lisa Matteo

458
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: brought to you by Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers they charge

459
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 2: dollar margin loan rates some five point eight percent rates

460
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 2: subject to change. Learn more at ibkr dot com slash

461
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 2: compare Lisa, what are you having a Friday?

462
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 7: Well, we got the Associated Press are saying the number

463
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,479
Speaker 7: of zombie companies on the rise. We're talking about companies

464
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 7: so much debt they're struggling to survive, barely able to

465
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 7: pay even the interest rates on their loans. So here

466
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 7: are the numbers. Associated Press analysis. The numbers stored nearly

467
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 7: seven thousand publicly traded companies around the world two thousand

468
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 7: in the US alone, and that includes like companies that

469
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 7: run Carnival cruise lines, Jet Blue, Wayfair, Pelotons. So these

470
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 7: are big companies and the AP is saying a lot

471
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 7: of them won't survive because the dates are approaching when

472
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 7: they have to start exactating those loans.

473
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 2: Two years ago, Paul, my theme for the year was

474
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 2: a great zombie roll up. Yeah, maybe that was early,

475
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 2: but here it is.

476
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, you've got companies that you know, have higher levels

477
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 4: debt and they have them a low rates. Now they

478
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 4: got to refinance these things, and the rates are so

479
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 4: much higher here it really calls into question their ability

480
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:09,919
Speaker 4: to pay interest, to pay the principle, and all those

481
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 4: type types of things. So it's not it's not unusual

482
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 4: in this type part of the cycle, but here we are.

483
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 7: And if they go bankrupt that it's even worse because

484
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 7: they have all these workers and people, but.

485
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 2: The debt's here. It's like it's like the commercial real estate,

486
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 2: the office buildings Class B, class C. You know, you

487
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 2: extend and pretend and you wait and you wait until

488
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 2: you can. I mean, I wonder over the weekend, what

489
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 2: will we see nationwide in foreclosures and the other things.

490
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 4: But carnival cruise lines, they will earn their way out

491
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 4: of it, you know, like the market doesn't have any

492
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 4: concern about it.

493
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 2: Something like that just got you know, have you ever

494
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 2: done that? Like the fifteen story tall cruise was in

495
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 2: Venice once and one of those boats went right by,

496
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 2: just like in the movies. It was like it was

497
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 2: to me it was rude. But there they are. They're huge, man,

498
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 2: next do it.

499
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 7: You were just talking about this the NBA and the

500
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 7: broadcast rights and all that, so this is kind of

501
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 7: a sidebar you have. The NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, he

502
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 7: said the league is going to turn to expansion, probably

503
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 7: go overseas, you know, beyond the Toronto Raptors, you know,

504
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 7: go beyond after this whole TV deal thing works out.

505
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 7: He said he's thinking long term. Mexico City actually considered

506
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 7: a contender for a new NBA franchise. But you'll have

507
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 7: a lot of people who are interested in owning teams.

508
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 7: If Lebron Jamee retires, Lebron James could be a part

509
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 7: of it. Shaquille O'Neil says he's express interest in ownership

510
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 7: of times.

511
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 2: I mean, what's interesting here, Paul, And let's go to

512
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 2: rule four at the next game where Paul swinging Hold's scoring,

513
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 2: and the answer is will it dilute the game? I mean,

514
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 2: are there enough players out.

515
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 4: There to YEA plenty of players, particularly internationally tom So

516
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 4: many players in the NBA come from Europe in particular.

517
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 4: I mean, they could start a league. The NBA could

518
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 4: start a league in Europe tomorrow. That's how global the

519
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 4: basketball league is.

520
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 2: Basketball. So you need so much more global than even

521
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 2: American football, a separate league or London player New York Knicks.

522
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:02,959
Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, I think the logistics there

523
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 4: would be very difficult. But I'm just saying that the

524
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 4: basketball as a sport is a global sport, more so

525
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 4: than say American football. American football. You bring that over

526
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:12,479
Speaker 4: to London year.

527
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 2: I've done in a bar.

528
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 4: It's right, it's fine. I mean people but it's but

529
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 4: if they don't. But you know, in Europe, Spain, all

530
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 4: over it it's it's a global business.

531
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: I've done the NFL just outside the Tower of London

532
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 2: in a bar selling to Americans and it's just not

533
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 2: I mean, it's foreign. It's all there is to it?

534
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 2: What else do you have to do?

535
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 7: So the New York Times talking about concerts and if

536
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 7: they're starting to die out. You Jennifer Lopez, she canceled

537
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 7: her concert twenty twenty three.

538
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 3: It was a good year, right, You had.

539
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 7: Taylor Swift, you had Beyonce, Drake, Bruce Bringsteen, you know,

540
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 7: he was twenty twenty three. But there have been cancelations.

541
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 7: Some sales are slowing. You had Coachella. Those tickets normally

542
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 7: sell out, but there were still some available when it opened.

543
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 7: So they're saying that the market for concert tours could

544
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 7: be slowing. But other people are saying, you know what,

545
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 7: it's good Live Nation saying so far sales are up

546
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 7: from the same point.

547
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 2: What do you think? I mean when you go to

548
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 2: see Bruce, what's the night costume? Oh it's car, Yeah, yeah,

549
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 2: it's dinner.

550
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:11,120
Speaker 3: Yeah.

551
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's crazy, but it's a it's a once in

552
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 4: every two or three, four or five year tech type thing,

553
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 4: so you just blow it off.

554
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 2: But I think the.

555
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 4: Issue for concerts time was that was one of those

556
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 4: businesses coming out of the pandemic, when we switched from

557
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 4: just buying goods like Peloton bikes, experiences, and one of

558
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 4: the big experiences was going back to concerts and that

559
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 4: we've had twenty two twenty three were just blowout years.

560
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 2: What I learned, what I learned on this this week

561
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: is liz Ane Saunders is never going to see Taylor Swift. Now,

562
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 2: you know, maybe she'll see Black Keys or something with

563
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 2: an edge to it. But the major thing we learned

564
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 2: in surveillance is liz Anne Sanders is not going to

565
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 2: be in Paris with Stephanie r there at a whole

566
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: watching Taylor. I think Lisa was there, she just won't

567
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 2: admit it. What else do you have?

568
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 4: This one?

569
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 7: This is for sleep away camps. Okay, this is what

570
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 7: we're talking about. Not sure if you ever send your

571
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 7: kids over to summer sleep away camp. But moms and

572
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 7: dads are dishing out even more money. They're hiring people

573
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 7: to pack for them to pack their kids. So the

574
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 7: sleep away camp itself is like fifteen grand out of control.

575
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: We fortunately Paul has to talk about a song to

576
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 2: save me. This is a total American scam. In America,

577
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 2: you basically pack up the bedroom and move ity bidty

578
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: to camp.

579
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 4: It's just a ridiculous Damien was talking about this.

580
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 2: I wanted to say that afterthought, We'll be going to

581
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 2: a camp in Scotland, and basically the page is they

582
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: may bring one knapsack and one suitcase.

583
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 3: That's it.

584
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 2: That's it. That's my kind of camp.

585
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 7: See the problem is these camps now they have like

586
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 7: one hundred items.

587
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 4: That's that's the packing list.

588
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 2: Unbelievable.

589
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 7: So they're hiring these organizers for like one hundred and

590
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 7: twenty five dollars an hour to get them there and

591
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 7: also to pack them when they come back. So that

592
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 7: way the kids have their suffpacked, their laundry is done.

593
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 7: They come home, Mom just opens up the case and

594
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 7: that's it. They could spend more time with the kids.

595
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo Lisa Mateo with the newspapers on a Friday.

596
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best

597
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also

598
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast

599
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from

600
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in

601
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

602
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio.

603
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.