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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas viel and joining me for the

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Speaker 1: entirety of the NFL season none other than the king

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Speaker 1: of content, the high Septum of Soaps, the podcast power listener,

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Speaker 1: and long suffering Cowboys fan, the oracle himself, Matt Friedman

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Speaker 1: and Matt Today we are talking about your favorite betting item, player, props,

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Speaker 1: and so. To join us on predicting the future, we

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Speaker 1: bring on a man who knows everything about predictions, Action

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Speaker 1: Networks Director of predictive Analysis, Sean Kerner. Sean, Matt, how

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Speaker 1: are you guys doing today?

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Speaker 2: I'm doing well. I'm just excited to finally be on

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Speaker 2: a pod with Matthew Friedman. I just can't wait.

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Speaker 1: It's truly an honor and a privilege to get to

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Speaker 1: do so.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, everyone who gets on a pod with me, their

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Speaker 3: life is made better. But I will say, Tom, you

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Speaker 3: didn't pronounce Sean's last name correctly. It's not Kerner, It's

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Speaker 3: Corner exactly. He doesn't know this, but he has been

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Speaker 3: mispronouncing his last name ever since I left the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: See, you can't mess me up on this because we

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Speaker 1: literally before you joined us a little late, might I

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Speaker 1: add on the pod today, the first question I had

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Speaker 1: was how do you pronounce your last name? And now

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Speaker 1: I know for a fact you mess it up, But

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Speaker 1: now I'm worried that I also messed it up.

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Speaker 3: About No, no, no, you were right. Here's the thing. Here's

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Speaker 3: the thing, And Sean should be very embarrassed about this

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Speaker 3: for being so meek. But for years he let me

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Speaker 3: mispronounce his last name, and he never bothered to say, Hey, Matt,

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Speaker 3: here's how you pronounced my last name. It's not Corner,

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Speaker 3: it's Kerner. And by the way, when I say Kerner,

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Speaker 3: I'm still not even sure that I'm saying that correctly.

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Speaker 3: Did Sean, how do you pronounce your last name?

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Speaker 2: It's Kerner? And Ray Bond can vouch for this. Very

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Speaker 2: first pod, I said, Oh, Matt, it's actually Kerner, and

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Speaker 2: you just went with Corner anyway, So I just didn't

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Speaker 2: keep correcting you, And that's I guess that's what happened.

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Speaker 2: Like Travis Kelcey, apparently it's Kel's he just didn't want

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Speaker 2: to keep correcting people, so he just went with it.

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Speaker 1: That can't possibly be right, Like we neither brother corrected

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Speaker 1: us on that correct.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Romeo Dubbs Dabbs, same thing like Nevada. They

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Speaker 2: would call him Dubs every broadcast and someone finally asked them,

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Speaker 2: how do you pronounce it? He said, it's Dobbs. So

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Speaker 2: it's similar, Like I've gotten used to it. Most people

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Speaker 2: pronounce my last name Corner, so instead just constantly going

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Speaker 2: it's I just tell them once and that's it. Move on.

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Speaker 1: That's the thing I love about my last name. People

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Speaker 1: go viola or viola, and I'm like, it literally doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: Americans say viola, and then if you're in Italy they

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Speaker 1: all say viola. So I'm like, both are technically right,

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Speaker 1: and I just roll right.

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Speaker 3: All right. Well, Matthew Friedman is on a mission to

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Speaker 3: make sure that everyone in the world now knows how

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Speaker 3: to pronounce Sean Corner's last name correctly. Okay, it's Corner,

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Speaker 3: all right, all right.

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Speaker 1: An, guys, let's get into the show here. Enough horse

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Speaker 1: and around, guys. The first we're talking player props today,

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Speaker 1: and so the first question that I want to ask you, guys,

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Speaker 1: is what is the process? Like both of you are

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Speaker 1: masters of the art of projection, and when you're running

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Speaker 1: these projections for your player props. How are you going

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Speaker 1: about it? How are you coming up with these numbers

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Speaker 1: that you get? Is it going through models? Is it

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Speaker 1: that you're just eyeballing previous stats and data and looking

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Speaker 1: at what you think their season is going to play out?

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Speaker 2: As?

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Speaker 1: How does the scientific process get started here? Sean will

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Speaker 1: start with you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So it's a lot of math involved, a lot

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Speaker 2: of different ways. I'm not going to tell you everything,

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Speaker 2: but just in general, I am projecting like a week's

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Speaker 2: worth of data, like a week of games. That way

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Speaker 2: I can kind of see if everything fits. So I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to be projecting the rams for five thousand

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Speaker 2: passing yards and only giving like four thy five hundred

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Speaker 2: out to the rest of the team. I'm trying to

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Speaker 2: you know, project everything at a high level and down

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Speaker 2: and sort of how it's going to allocate across the team.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, just going just at a bare bones level,

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Speaker 2: I'm factoring in a lot of regression from you know,

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Speaker 2: the year before. We're guessing on the mean, looking where

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Speaker 2: players are getting their touches, where they're getting their targets,

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Speaker 2: and it's doing a lot of math things, but also

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Speaker 2: using my you know, my knowledge, my expertise, and the

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Speaker 2: NFL to kind of like blend it all together. So

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Speaker 2: at the end of the day, it's it's a mixture

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Speaker 2: of both, you know, my models and just my expertise

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Speaker 2: at the same time.

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Speaker 1: So it's a combination here of that expertise. But then

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Speaker 1: you all are are also picking out models, picking out

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Speaker 1: an algorithm that you want to use, and kind of

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Speaker 1: modeling it all through that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and just knowing for every player, every player is different.

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Speaker 2: The range of outcomes and what you're trying to accomplish,

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Speaker 2: it dictates what projections I would use. So if we're

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Speaker 2: talking about season long player props, you know, total like

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Speaker 2: passing yards over in our four thousand passing yards, I'm

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Speaker 2: going to be focusing on his medium projection. Whereas if

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Speaker 2: you're focusing on a market like most passing yards, I'm

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Speaker 2: going to be focusing on their ceiling and you know,

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Speaker 2: they're the high end of the range of outcomes. So

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of juggling both at the same time, and

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Speaker 2: depending on what I'm trying to accomplish, dictates what type

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Speaker 2: of projections I'm using.

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Speaker 1: Matt, how about you, is there a crystal ball for

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Speaker 1: the oracle.

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Speaker 3: Uh, No, I'm a moron when it comes to projections,

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Speaker 3: and and Sean can vouch for this. It's not to

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Speaker 3: say that my projections are awful for the purposes of

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Speaker 3: for doing props, because what I did find was that

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Speaker 3: even though my projections, if I turned them into rankings

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Speaker 3: for fantasy, they weren't as good for that, they were

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Speaker 3: still directionally correct a lot of the time when it

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Speaker 3: came to going into the prop market and seeing if

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Speaker 3: there is value on something. So, as Sean said, I

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Speaker 3: think it depends on what you're using your projections for.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 3: But Seawn's top down approach that is very much how

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Speaker 3: I did projections. I normally don't do projections anymore, but

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Speaker 3: this I'd like to get Sewn's thoughts on this. I

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Speaker 3: think this is a weird year for the prompt market

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Speaker 3: and so and I'll just kind of put my thesis

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Speaker 3: out there. What I've seen for the past five years,

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Speaker 3: You've been able to look at a sharp projection set,

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Speaker 3: whether it's Shawan's, whether it's you know, someone like Mike

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Speaker 3: Lay at ESPN, whoever it is that you trust to

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Speaker 3: do projections, You've been able to look at their projections

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Speaker 3: compare it to the props in the market, the season

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Speaker 3: long props, and see a ton of unders that you

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Speaker 3: would be able to bet. And this year it's pretty different.

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Speaker 3: A lot of sharp data sets have projections that are

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Speaker 3: now pointing to the over It's as if the books

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Speaker 3: did their normal thing of creating projections and then cut

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Speaker 3: like twenty percent off of what they would normally have

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Speaker 3: and then release those lines so they're like there aren't

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Speaker 3: nearly as many under bets just based on consulting projections

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Speaker 3: as there normally are. And when I saw that, I thought, like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: I don't really want to make projections, but this year,

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Speaker 3: I'm just going to do like a very quick and

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Speaker 3: crude of projections to see if, like I'm able to

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Speaker 3: replicate some of the things that I'm seeing from other

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Speaker 3: people who actually put a lot of time into their projections,

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Speaker 3: and like sure enough, Yeah, like my projections were pretty

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Speaker 3: much in line with them. And it seems as if

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Speaker 3: the books have wisened up this year. Sean, have you

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Speaker 3: noticed have you noticed that?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, absolutely, the lines are a lot sharper now,

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Speaker 2: and I think part of it is the extra game involved.

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Speaker 2: You know, the league going to seventeen games, for each

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Speaker 2: team definitely shook things up. Where the other thing I

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Speaker 2: forgot to mention is when it comes to season long projections,

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Speaker 2: you want to factor in like how many games are

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Speaker 2: expected to miss, so for example, like quarterbacks separately around

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Speaker 2: one game. And then there's also the job security. If

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Speaker 2: a guy like Baker Mayfield doesn't have a lock on

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Speaker 2: the number one job, you might lower that a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But running backs, it's closer to two games wide receiver one,

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Speaker 2: and that probably doesn't change as much just because they're

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Speaker 2: adding a game, So I think you are going to

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Speaker 2: see just players outputs go up based on the one game.

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Speaker 2: So that's been something I've had to juggle, and it

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Speaker 2: does look like the books kind of balance that out.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, you don't see as much value on the unders,

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Speaker 2: which is unfortunate because that's that's where all the value

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Speaker 2: used to be because there's so many outs for the

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Speaker 2: under the hit, whether it's an injury, a suspension, a

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Speaker 2: player you know, losing playing time. There was way more

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Speaker 2: outs for you know, the under to hit as opposed

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Speaker 2: to the over. So I think the books understood that,

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Speaker 2: and the lines are a lot sharper now.

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Speaker 1: Because that was that was actually going to be my

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Speaker 1: question after Matt, but you already mentioned it about the

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Speaker 1: fact that now that we've seen a season of seventeen games,

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Speaker 1: is it that the numbers are being skewed in that direction?

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Speaker 1: But it's just that in general, the lines are getting sharper.

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Speaker 1: The books are finding some X factor here to put

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Speaker 1: out a better line than they were before.

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Speaker 2: Plus also player props are getting way more popular, so

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Speaker 2: there's just more volume coming in on it, and that's

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Speaker 2: how you know the lines get sharper. So I just

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Speaker 2: think the increase in action has helped the books, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of figure out where the line should be. I

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Speaker 2: still think they're going to be taking way more money

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Speaker 2: on the overs, So I think in general we still

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Speaker 2: want to target unders, but just in general that the

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Speaker 2: market is a lot sharper this year.

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Speaker 1: Now do you think that and this is going off

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Speaker 1: in the lead leads a little bit here, but do

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Speaker 1: you think that that could in part have to do

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Speaker 1: with the kind of new advent that we've been seeing

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Speaker 1: of that fusion of daily fantasy and prop betting, where

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Speaker 1: you're seeing some of these companies like a Prize Picks

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Speaker 1: that put out that put out these static prop lines

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Speaker 1: now in markets that otherwise would not have lines like

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Speaker 1: this to bet on. Is that providing an extra level

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Speaker 1: of information here with that market as well, or do

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Speaker 1: you think that that's not really something with playing a factor.

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Speaker 2: It's it's all inclusive. It's just an extra market that's

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Speaker 2: out there, extra lines to compare to. So I think

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Speaker 2: all of these moving parts are what is making the

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Speaker 2: market more efficient.

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Speaker 1: W Back all of your wagers in one place. Check

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Speaker 1: out the Betting prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com slash picktracking.

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Speaker 1: It syncs up with your sports books to tally which

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Speaker 1: picks hit and which miss and gives you a live

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Speaker 1: look at what the public is doing. So you can

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Speaker 1: use real time tracking to determine which place to make

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Speaker 1: and which to fade. Get on the leaderboard and quickly

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Speaker 1: become a sharp by using the free advice we have

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Speaker 1: to offer at bettingpros dot com slash picktracking. Now, my

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Speaker 1: next question for you guys here, how far off does

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Speaker 1: a number have to be from? Does a line have

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Speaker 1: to be from your number for you to see value

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Speaker 1: in it?

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Speaker 2: Like?

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Speaker 1: At what point do you start questioning your own predictions

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Speaker 1: versus the book? Is that just a case of Okay,

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Speaker 1: if all of my numbers are off, now I'm starting

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Speaker 1: to maybe reevaluate my system, and what for you makes

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Speaker 1: you go, I'm going to fire away on one of

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Speaker 1: these bats.

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Speaker 3: Map well, so you can look at it just in

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Speaker 3: terms of percentage, and I would say, like, I want

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Speaker 3: a lot of my lines to be a lot of

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Speaker 3: my projections to be relatively in line with what I

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Speaker 3: see in the market, so that I know I'm not

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Speaker 3: way off on everything. But then you know, you have

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Speaker 3: your sense of certain players. Even when you're doing your projections,

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Speaker 3: you can probably sense based on what you're inputting, like,

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Speaker 3: all right, I'm imagining I'm going to end up being

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Speaker 3: low relative to the market on this guy. Uh, And

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Speaker 3: then when you see that in the market, I guess

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Speaker 3: maybe it's a little bit of confirmation bias, but I

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Speaker 3: think if there's still sufficient value there, so I would say,

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Speaker 3: you know, ten percent, If you're ten percent, often that's

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Speaker 3: in the range where you probably want to start betting it,

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Speaker 3: especially if it's ten percent to the downside. You know,

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Speaker 3: I think the direction in which you're going is also

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Speaker 3: part of it. But yeah, I think ten percent.

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Speaker 1: How about you, Sean?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like the ten percent rule seems fair to me,

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Speaker 2: and I think, honestly it's gonna come down to a

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Speaker 2: case by case basis. This goes back to what I

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Speaker 2: was saying when it comes to just the range of outcomes.

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Speaker 2: If it's a guy like Keenan Allen who will probably

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Speaker 2: get one hundred catches for twelve hundred yards and six

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Speaker 2: touchdowns exactly again this year for the fourth year in

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Speaker 2: a row, if I'm off, you know, by a touchdown

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Speaker 2: on him or a hundred yards, I would consider locking

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Speaker 2: that in compared to one hundred yards off or touch

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Speaker 2: on off of a rookie, where they're going to have

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Speaker 2: a much wider range of outcomes. So I think it

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Speaker 2: depends on specifically on the player and how confident I

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Speaker 2: feel I am in my productions.

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Speaker 1: Now we're going to talk about some of those actual productions,

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Speaker 1: predictions and some picks here in a few minutes. But

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Speaker 1: I have one more question before you before we get

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Speaker 1: into that, and it specifically has to deal with Cooper

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Speaker 1: Cup not necessarily saying how is he going to follow

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Speaker 1: last year's campaign, but you look at those numbers and

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Speaker 1: his totals are astronomical eleven and a half touchdowns, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and eleven and a half receptions thirteen hundred receiving

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Speaker 1: yards all are obviously numbers he cleared last year. But

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Speaker 1: when you're dealing with a player who had such a

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Speaker 1: phenomenal record breaking season, how much do you factor in

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Speaker 1: regression when a player's numbers are this high? And do

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Speaker 1: you look to the under market on these guys?

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Speaker 2: Are you still.

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Speaker 1: Looking at overs when it comes to some of these

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Speaker 1: numbers that, let's face it, even if he does regard

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Speaker 1: rests a decent amount, a guy like Cooper Cup still

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Speaker 1: has a chance to hit those numbers. But then, on

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Speaker 1: the other hand, the unders have, like you said, many

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Speaker 1: more outs. How are you factoring these things in when

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Speaker 1: it's a guy who had such a phenomenal year of

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Speaker 1: the year before and that's coming off of that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So again it's case by case basis. When it

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Speaker 2: comes to Cooper Cup, I'm staying away from his market.

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Speaker 2: It looks like his overhunner for yards is around thirteen hundred,

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Speaker 2: which sounds about right. I think with him you have

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Speaker 2: to factor in is anything different heading into this year

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Speaker 2: and with him the answer is no. I mean they

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Speaker 2: still have Matt Stafford under center. They still have Sean

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Speaker 2: McVay as a head coach. They're replacing the Robert Woods

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Speaker 2: Odell Beckham number two wide receiver role with Alan Robinson,

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Speaker 2: so you could argue that's pretty much a lateral move.

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Speaker 2: So there really isn't that much different going to this season. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: I'm in a factor in regression. It's impossible for a player,

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Speaker 2: even Cooper Cup himself, to probably replicate last season's numbers.

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Speaker 2: You have to figure that defenses are gonna have all

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Speaker 2: off season to watch film and think of ways to

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Speaker 2: potentially slow him down. So I'm definitely factoring in some aggression.

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Speaker 2: But with a player like him, you got it careful

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Speaker 2: because I mean just he and Matthew Stafford have such

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Speaker 2: a mind meld that it's scary to think about what

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Speaker 2: they'll do in year two once they have even more chemistry.

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Speaker 2: So with him, you know, I'm backing regression, but not

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Speaker 2: as much as you would think. But I'm pretty much

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Speaker 2: in line with the market. So a player like him,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna stay away from.

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Speaker 1: You know, one of my favorite sayings a great sports

303
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Speaker 1: book director out here in Vegas once told me the

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Speaker 1: advantage betters have over the book is that the book

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Speaker 1: has to put out a line on every event. The

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Speaker 1: better doesn't have to take in number. Sometimes walking away

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Speaker 1: is the best bet that you can make. Matt, how

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Speaker 1: about you, how are you dealing with regression when looking

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Speaker 1: at a player with a season like that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, honestly, Sean said, you have to bake

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Speaker 3: regression into it. But I'm I know, I'm sort of torn.

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Speaker 3: I'm going in two different direct actions with some of

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Speaker 3: my projections for Cooper Cup. So on the one hand,

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Speaker 3: I am projecting him for over the number that's in

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Speaker 3: the market, like thirteen hundred thirteen and a half, I'm

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Speaker 3: projecting him for closer to fourteen hundred fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 3: That said, like, I'm not betting the over, you know,

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Speaker 3: like I'm just I'm not going to do it, but like,

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Speaker 3: I'm also not going to bet the under on it

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Speaker 3: because it's Cooper Cup. He was awesome last year and

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Speaker 3: a Sean said, not all that much for him has

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Speaker 3: changed in terms of the targets that we could project

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Speaker 3: to go his direction, but one thing that has changed,

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Speaker 3: I do think, and I'll just say, like touchdowns for me,

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Speaker 3: I am betting the under on his touchdown total eleven

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Speaker 3: and a half. That is a really high number. That's

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Speaker 3: the highest number out there in the market. I am

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Speaker 3: projected for ten point seven, and touchdowns are variable, and

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Speaker 3: I think even if the target chair stays the same,

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Speaker 3: that doesn't mean he's going to get as many long

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Speaker 3: touchdowns and as many targets inside the ten yard line.

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Speaker 3: The addition of wide receiver Alan Robinson that could take

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Speaker 3: targets away from him in the end zone and in

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Speaker 3: the red zone, and also possible maturation of thirty year

335
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Speaker 3: wide receiver Van Jefferson, who like wasn't bad last year

336
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Speaker 3: and could get better this year. And you know, maybe

337
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Speaker 3: the offense just takes a little step back, even though

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Speaker 3: I would think that Matthew Stafford still plays well, right,

339
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Speaker 3: I don't think the elbow injury is a big issue,

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Speaker 3: but he could still play well, and the offense could

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Speaker 3: still take a little bit of a step back this year.

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Speaker 3: So I mean Cooper cup league high career high sixteen

343
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Speaker 3: touchdowns last year. In the four seasons before that, he

344
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Speaker 3: averaged six. Like will I will take the under on that.

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Speaker 3: If you give me the highest touchdowns total on the board, I.

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Speaker 1: Think that's really fair. I'm the same way with this

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Speaker 1: entire Rams team. I'm of completely two minds. I distill

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Speaker 1: it all down to the fact that Matthew Stafford led

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Speaker 1: the two quarterbacks, led the league in interceptions last year

350
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Speaker 1: with seventeen. Stafford and Lawrence talk about variable outcomes right there,

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Speaker 1: and on the one and you're not gonna win a

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl two years in a row leading the league

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Speaker 1: in interceptions. But on the other hand, is Stafford going

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Speaker 1: to lead the league in interceptions again? Because he's probably

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Speaker 1: gonna regress from that number. So I'm right there with

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Speaker 1: you on not having too much of an answer and

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Speaker 1: saying that sometimes the answer with these guys coming off

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Speaker 1: these record years is to just stay away. And guys,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get into some predictions now, but first just

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Speaker 1: want to remind you we've teamed up with Run Your

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00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,560
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382
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Speaker 1: up and compete with Matt and myself as well in

383
00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 1: our pick them contest. Matt, you are going down, but

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Speaker 1: right now we're gonna be picking out some of your

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Speaker 1: favorite player props. Guys, I'm gonna start off with you, Matt.

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Speaker 1: What is one of your top five props for the season.

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Speaker 3: Okay, well, I will say that I know Sean has

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Speaker 3: a prop that is correlated, going the opposite direction with

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Speaker 3: this one, and I'm picking this just because I know

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Speaker 3: that Sean is doing that. But it's in the running

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Speaker 3: to be one of my top five, and I'm going

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Speaker 3: skymore under six hundred and eighty and a half yards receiving.

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Speaker 3: I have this projected for six hundred and fifty eight.

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Speaker 3: You can get it draft Kings minus one fifteen, So

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Speaker 3: I'm not like all that far off. It's just like

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Speaker 3: in my projections, I know that mine are skewing high,

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Speaker 3: so the ones where I am under, like, that's a

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Speaker 3: pretty clear sign of where I'm seeing value. I would

399
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Speaker 3: not have anticipated before we saw preseason games that I

400
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 3: would be betting the under on sky Moore's yardage total.

401
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 3: And I think he has a world of upside, which

402
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,480
Speaker 3: Sean is going to touch on. But to this point

403
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Speaker 3: in the preseason, More has been behind Juju Smith, Schuster,

404
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 3: Marquez Valdez, Kantleen, Mikol Hardman, and Justin Watson. Like the

405
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 3: fact that he's behind Justin Watson, that is really what

406
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,400
Speaker 3: blew my mind when that we saw in Week one,

407
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,360
Speaker 3: Hardman played with the first team, Watson played a little

408
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 3: bit with the first team. We didn't see that at

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Speaker 3: all for sky Moore, and then in week two Juju

410
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,160
Speaker 3: was out, Hardman was out, Watson was getting more run

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00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 3: with the first team then we saw from sky Moore.

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Speaker 3: So it's not to say that Watson and Hardman will

413
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Speaker 3: stay ahead of him for the entire season. I imagine

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00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: that at some point he overtakes them. He has the

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00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 3: talent to do it, but I think that it won't

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00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 3: happen early enough in the season for him to hit

417
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Speaker 3: the over based on how we have seen the team

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Speaker 3: use Hardman and Watson so far.

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Speaker 1: Matt, hang on a second here, I'm getting a request

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Speaker 1: to join the show from Derek Brown to come on

421
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 1: and just absolutely yell at you for the sky More slander.

422
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna turn him down, but instead I'm going to

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Speaker 1: turn to you, Sean, Can you make the case the

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Speaker 1: other way. I know that's one of your favorites.

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00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, So when it comes to sky Moore, he's one

426
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,880
Speaker 2: of those players I have a wide range of outcomes

427
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 2: for him. So I could take Freeman's point about his median,

428
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 2: you know, taking the under there, because he does have

429
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 2: a wide range of outcomes. But I do like him

430
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,719
Speaker 2: in the market for most receiving yards by a rookie

431
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 2: at twelve to one, because this was one of my

432
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,119
Speaker 2: favorite landing spots of all the rookie wide receivers. In

433
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 2: the first couple of rounds, there's gonna be a ton

434
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 2: of targets up for grabs. With Tyree killgone, Patrick Maholmes

435
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 2: is still gonna throw for a ton of yards this year,

436
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 2: so it's gonna have to go somewhere. And Sky's been

437
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 2: getting read reviews all camp. I haven't been too impressed

438
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 2: from what I've seen in preseason, but he's been seeing

439
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 2: a couple of deep shots here and there from Patrick

440
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 2: mahomes and that's what I was looking for. But when

441
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 2: it comes to the rookie wide receivers, you know, guys

442
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 2: like Drake London, Chris o'lave, maybe even Garrett Wilson, I

443
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 2: would consider have a higher floor, so I'm projecting them

444
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 2: for more yards heading into the season. But when it

445
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,679
Speaker 2: comes to a ceiling, I think skymore has one of

446
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 2: the higher ceilings, just considering he's gonna be on a

447
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,360
Speaker 2: passing offense that averages thirty, maybe fifty yards more than

448
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 2: any one of those wide receivers, so there's gonna be

449
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 2: more yards up for grabs and the AFC West is

450
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 2: gonna see a ton of shootouts this year. So sky

451
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: Moore is a player who has you know, his ceiling's

452
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 2: gonna be much higher than the other guys I mentioned.

453
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 2: So getting him at twelve to one, I think is

454
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 2: a steal. But I'm not going to touch his medium.

455
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 2: For his odds of six hundred and eighty yards, I

456
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 2: think that's fair to where you know, it could go

457
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 2: either way. But in terms of seiling, I love getting

458
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 2: him at twelve to one, and.

459
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 3: I do like what Sean said there because I agree

460
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 3: at twelve to one, I think that the ceiling case

461
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 3: offers value there given the landing spot, given his talent,

462
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 3: the second round pedigree, and the situations. Also with some

463
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 3: of the rookies in this class where you know, Garrett Wilson,

464
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: he looks like he's playing behind some other guys right now.

465
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 3: Traylon Burks, I mean like I'm going to talk about

466
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 3: him later. That's what we call a tase in the business.

467
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, some of these rookies I'm not really impressed with.

468
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 3: So getting the upside with twelve to one with sky Moore,

469
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,360
Speaker 3: I actually do like that, even though in the Median

470
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 3: I'm going under on his yardage total.

471
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: All right, Sean, we're going to go back to you

472
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 1: here since we started out with mad give me prout

473
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 1: number two.

474
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 2: So I love Ralph Saint Brown under five and a

475
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 2: half receiving touchdowns. You know, last season as a rookie,

476
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 2: he scored five touchdowns on ninety receptions. That was a

477
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 2: five and a half percent touchdown rate. And using the

478
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 2: implied odds by the sports book, they're projecting him for

479
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 2: five and a half touchdowns on seventy eight and a

480
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 2: half receptions. That's a seven percent touchdown rate. And I'm

481
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 2: not sure we can expect aman Ra's touchdown rate to

482
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 2: jump up that much, especially when you consider the type

483
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 2: of wide receiver he is. You know, he's going to

484
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 2: be Jared Goff's number one target moving the ball down

485
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 2: the field, but once they get near the goal line,

486
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 2: he falls down the peckning order quite a bit in

487
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 2: terms of targets. Just looking at his one hundred and

488
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 2: nineteen targets last year, only four of them were in

489
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 2: the end zone, and those are the most predictive type

490
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 2: of target when it comes to receiving touchdowns. So typically

491
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 2: you would expect a guy with four end zone targets

492
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 2: on one hundred and nineteen targets total to score about

493
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 2: three point eight touchdowns, So you could argue he actually

494
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 2: got lucky scoring five last year. So heading into this

495
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 2: season with DeAndre Swift, TG Hodginson back two hundred percent health,

496
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 2: with DJ Chark, potentially Jamison Williams down the road, he's

497
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 2: gonna have a lot more you know, competition when it

498
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 2: comes to target. So that's why the market is projecting

499
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: him for about fourteen less receptions this year. But you

500
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 2: know they're projecting for a half more touchdown which doesn't

501
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 2: make sense. So this is a market I like to

502
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 2: take advantage of all ma around say Brown, even though

503
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 2: I do like him heading into the season. I love

504
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 2: him in fantasy. I think he's a high floor guy,

505
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 2: but when it comes to touchdown output, I don't see him,

506
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 2: you know, clearing six or more touchdowns more than fifty

507
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 2: percent of the time.

508
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: I'm very surprised by the bold decision to pick that

509
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 1: prop and also pick your choice of head gear for

510
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: this episode.

511
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 2: I want to make it clear that I still like

512
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 2: the guy. Again. I still like him in fantasy. He's

513
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 2: a high floor guy, but just when it comes to

514
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 2: this specific market, I'm a little bit very sean. I

515
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,959
Speaker 2: just want to make that clear with my hat choice.

516
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: See, I figured you were just really hyped by the

517
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: Lions appearance on their new HBO show. Hi for one,

518
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 1: I'm very confused as to how the writing is going

519
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: to go, but I'm excited to see how Dan Campbell

520
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 1: sends to the iron throw on Matt What is your

521
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: next player prop here?

522
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,439
Speaker 3: Okay, a little bit torn. I have two quarterback props

523
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 3: that I'm deciding between, and I'm going to go with

524
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 3: Ryan Tannehill under thirty six hundred point five yards passing.

525
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 3: I have him projected closer for thirty three hundred and

526
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 3: I think some of this just comes down to a

527
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 3: couple of things. I'm a little more optimistic that we

528
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 3: see Malik Willis play earlier in the season than maybe

529
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 3: is taken into account by the market. And then the

530
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 3: strength of schedule, like the Titans have a tough schedule,

531
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 3: like that's what happens when you are the number one

532
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 3: seed in the playoffs. But it really is just brutal

533
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 3: and I'm projecting them to go under or their win

534
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 3: total of nine and a half, the Titans they can

535
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 3: get out of Tannehill's contract next season with relatively little pain,

536
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 3: and then they drafted Malik Willis in the third round.

537
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 3: So you put all of that together. And by the way,

538
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 3: I will do the shameless plug. I have a piece

539
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 3: at Betting Pros that looks at the schedule and so

540
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 3: it kind of analyzes where in the schedule is really

541
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:24,679
Speaker 3: tough for the Titans. I also have a piece that

542
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 3: projects out my win total. So check both of those

543
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 3: out at Betting Pros if you want more on the Titans.

544
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 3: But I will say that given all of that, I

545
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 3: think it is likely that at some point we see

546
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 3: Tannehill take a seat on the bench and we see

547
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 3: Malik Willis end up getting some run, especially because even

548
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 3: though Willis has been I think he's been raw in

549
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 3: the preseason, he has flashed pretty significantly. And so I'm

550
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 3: just going to say that Tannehill, I don't think he

551
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 3: makes it through the entire season, and even if he does,

552
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 3: the Titans are likely to have a run heavy offense anyway.

553
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 3: So I think there's also that additional out. They traded

554
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 3: away AJ Brown, bringing in Traylon Burks again, it's another

555
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 3: t He's going to talk about him later. Bringing in

556
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 3: Traylon Buroks is not going to replace the passing production

557
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 3: that is lost from AJ Brown. So even if Tannehill

558
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: does play the entire season, there's still a chance that

559
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 3: he doesn't hit thirty six hundred passing yards. So I

560
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 3: like the under here for a number of reasons.

561
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: Sean Matt can't buy a Tanner throw. I want to

562
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: give you the option to comment before we move on

563
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 1: to his next pick here.

564
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 2: I kind of like this one, and I'm not going

565
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 2: out of my way to say that Tannehill is going

566
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 2: to get benched for Willis. I'm assuming he's going to

567
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: play the entire season, And I could see a path

568
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 2: for the under because, as Freedom mentioned, they traded away

569
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 2: AJ Brown and they drafted Trailon Burks to essentially replace him,

570
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: or at least try to, and his stock has been

571
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 2: dropping a ton heading in the season. So the fact

572
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 2: that you know Burks won't even come close to a J.

573
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 2: Brown is kind of why I do like this under.

574
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 2: So I could see them leaning on Derrick Henry at

575
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 2: least for one more good season. We're gonna get one

576
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 2: more good season Freeman out of Derrick Henry. So I

577
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 2: do like this under as well. And again, this is

578
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 2: the thing with Unders, there is the out that the

579
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 2: Titans kind of flop. You know, they're losing anyway, so

580
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 2: might as well bring in Malik Willis. I kind of

581
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 2: do like that angle is just a potential out. But

582
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 2: either way, I think with Treilon Burks sort of being

583
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 2: a flop early in his career, like that's gonna hurt

584
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: Brandannehill off the bat.

585
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: Matt, what is your prop? Number three?

586
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 3: No, we got to go to Sean.

587
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: No, it's a snake draft.

588
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 2: It is a snake draft.

589
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 3: It's a snake draft. All right, I will well, how

590
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 3: many hit? Sean done? He's done one, so he'll do

591
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 3: he's done two.

592
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 2: I digging back to sky Moore under with my lead

593
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 2: the whole rookie class and receiving.

594
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 3: Yards and then what was the other one?

595
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 2: I'm on right sleep, I totally.

596
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 3: Space out while you were doing that because I was trying.

597
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,239
Speaker 3: I'm bad. Let's just cut this out. We'll leave it in.

598
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: I'm leaving this here. Do not question my hosting here,

599
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: I give us.

600
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: I don't question the hosting. Okay, all right, My next

601
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,479
Speaker 3: one Austin Eckler under eight and a half touchdowns rushing.

602
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 3: I have this at seven point seven draft kings minus

603
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 3: one fifteen odds. Last year, Eckler scored twelve touchdowns on

604
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 3: the ground. In his four NFL seasons. Before that, Eckler

605
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 3: had never scored more than three. Now, obviously, for a

606
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 3: chunk of that time, he was back up to Melvin Gordon,

607
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 3: who you know was a goal line hog. But Eckler

608
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 3: is almost certain to have fewer than the career high

609
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 3: two hundred and six carries he had last year, and

610
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 3: with that decline and usage, I think we're going to

611
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 3: see a diminishment in scoring opportunities. I mean, this honestly

612
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 3: is one of my favorite bets of the year because

613
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 3: I think it could hit in a variety of ways.

614
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 3: Maybe the team just wants to try to keep Eckler

615
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 3: a little bit healthier and they don't use him in

616
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 3: short yarded situations as much. They just drafted Isaiah Spiller

617
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: in the fourth round. You know, a bigger bodied guy

618
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 3: who's younger, who could handle a little more of that

619
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 3: grind between the tackles. Or maybe they just use Eckler

620
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 3: a little bit less in the running game, however it is.

621
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,479
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, eight and a half for a

622
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 3: guy who is as small as Eckler is and who's

623
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 3: gone over this number just once in five years, that

624
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 3: feels like a pretty high number, all right.

625
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: I mean I can't really disagree with you. I think

626
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: the regression monster is always prone to hit. The only

627
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: thing going against you there is that Austin Eckler is,

628
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: in fact an anagram for Ukraine steel Sean. Now you

629
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 1: are up, what are you thinking?

630
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 2: I like, justin fields over five hundred and a half

631
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: rushing yards. This is probably one of the few unders

632
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 2: actually or overs I like on the season. I just

633
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: think this has a really high floor because if you

634
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 2: think about it, he rushed for four hundred and twenty

635
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 2: yards in just ten games as a rookie last season.

636
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 2: Three hundred and fifty one of those yards came off

637
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 2: of scrambles. Those are the most sticky type of you know,

638
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 2: rushing production from a quarterback. And you know, I think

639
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 2: we're going to anticipate him scrambling just as much this

640
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 2: year behind a terrible offensive line. The wide receiver room

641
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 2: is even worse this year, if you could believe it.

642
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 2: So he's gonna be running for his life back there.

643
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 2: That only helps this prop. Plus, it looks like the

644
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: new Bears coaching staff is working on more design runs

645
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 2: for fields this year, which we didn't see much of

646
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 2: last year. Like I just mentioned a lot of his

647
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 2: rushing yards last year rough of scramble. So if we

648
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 2: see any sort of increase in design runs, that's going

649
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: to help his floor end ceiling in this market. And

650
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: if you look at his first three starts, he was

651
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 2: a bit of a disaster. He only averaged eight and

652
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards per game. Then once he got

653
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: a bit more comfortable, you know, he ran for fifty

654
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,959
Speaker 2: two yards per game over his final seven starts. So

655
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: I think it's clear for him to be an effective

656
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: NFL quarterback, he's going to have to run. So that's

657
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: why there's a ton of things I like about this market. Again,

658
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 2: I'm not really a fan of betting overs, but as

659
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 2: Freeman mentioned earlier in the podcast, the market has kind

660
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 2: of factored that in, So I think there is some

661
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 2: value on some of these overs and a QB rushing

662
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 2: prop like this, you know, I think there's greater than

663
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 2: like a sixty sixty five percent chance of going over,

664
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: I'm projecting him closer to six hundred and six fifty

665
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: in this market.

666
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 3: I love I love this bet, and Sean said, yeah,

667
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 3: normally we don't like to go overs to go with

668
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 3: the overs, but he's a little more optimistic of a

669
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 3: person than I am. I'm bringing all unders to the show.

670
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 3: But if he if he is going with the season

671
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 3: long over not, you know, looking at the futures market,

672
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 3: looking you know, like Rookie to have the most yardage,

673
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,719
Speaker 3: but at a pure over, this is the one that

674
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 3: I like the most out of any of them that

675
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 3: I've seen, so qro s Sean, and also I mean, yeah,

676
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 3: this offensive line, like he is going to be scrambling.

677
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 3: We have this ranked as the worst offensive line in

678
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 3: our rankings at Fantasy Pros, and I honestly don't know

679
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 3: if it's close. I mean, I think this is the worst.

680
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: I mean that is that that is not great right there.

681
00:32:58,440 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 1: And I was actually going to say it before you

682
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 1: got both brought it up. That offensive line being so

683
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 1: bad is one of the great things to get you

684
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: more of those scrambling yards. And you know he's gonna

685
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 1: be one of those running quarterbacks because again, like you

686
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: also said, the receiver room is not inspiring any confidence.

687
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 1: The only hope that I have here is that you

688
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: don't have Matt Naggi calling plays. That's always a nice

689
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: thing to have. That's a good boost, which even gets

690
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 1: you even better in that over market. Sean, we stick

691
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: with you here. Give us prop number four, oh Man,

692
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 1: So I love this prop.

693
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 2: It's Joe Burrow to lead the league in passing yards

694
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 2: at twelve to one. I feel like this is one

695
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 2: of those props. At the end of the year, we'll

696
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 2: be like, wait, why was he twelve to one to

697
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 2: lead the league in passing yards? I mean, he really

698
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 2: started to break out over the final five games last season.

699
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: He ranked number one and like all the key metrics

700
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 2: I look at for quarterbacks, which is why I backed

701
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 2: the Bengals pretty much the entire playoffs. So he should

702
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: be even better in year three. He has arguably the

703
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 2: best trio wide receiver true and the and I actually

704
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 2: think Hayden Hurst is going to be an upgrade over

705
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 2: cg Uzoma at tight end. I mean, he's a first

706
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: round talent. I think he's gonna be really good this year. So,

707
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 2: plus you factor in they upgrade the offensive line it's

708
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 2: gonna give him even more time to throw, you know,

709
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: to target t Higgins and Jamar Chase downfield. So I

710
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: just think we haven't seen Burro's ceiling quite yet. It

711
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 2: could be this season. And then when you look at

712
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 2: the other quarterbacks at the top of this market that

713
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 2: I would consider co favorites, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott,

714
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: they all lost their number one target heading into this season,

715
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: so I think you can lower their ceiling a bit.

716
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 2: And then Matthew Stafford Freeman Menha, He's dealing with an

717
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 2: elbow injury. It's not a big concern yet, but it is,

718
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 2: you know, potential concern. So I think just even Matthew Stafford,

719
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 2: you could throw that bucket of quarterbacks where there's reason

720
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:50,800
Speaker 2: to be a little bit more bearish on him heading

721
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 2: into the season. So I think given Burrows mean out

722
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: with his you know, they pulled out his appendix, it's

723
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 2: been kind of quiet with them, so he's kind of

724
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 2: sneaky right now. I told the one to lead the

725
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 2: league in receiving yards. I just love his ceiling this year.

726
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 1: I mean throwing yards, not receiving yards, but oh right,

727
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: passing yards.

728
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll good.

729
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: But I was saying this on last week show. I

730
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 1: was talking about the forty nine ers, but I brought

731
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 1: up the point of I don't understand why people are

732
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,959
Speaker 1: targeting the Bengals so heavily for regression. On the one hand,

733
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 1: I do get they absolutely played to their utmost ceiling

734
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: last year as a team with what they had, But

735
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,839
Speaker 1: every move they've made this offseason, in my mind, has

736
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: just been a massive upgrade for them. And this was

737
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 1: a team that last year, even before the run, I

738
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 1: was thinking they're going to be a contender next season,

739
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 1: the one that we are now going into, they were

740
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 1: a candidate for me that was a one year away team. Yes,

741
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 1: they could regress a little bit, but I don't think

742
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:52,879
Speaker 1: it's going to be nearly as much as a lot

743
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 1: of people are saying. That nine and a half win

744
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: total is looking awful juicy to me for a team

745
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 1: that I think is going to be one of the

746
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 1: dominant forces in the league. Matt, do you agree with

747
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 1: us or are we crazy?

748
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 2: No?

749
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 3: I like it especially, and that's baked into the twelve

750
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 3: to one odds. Like the downside in all of this

751
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 3: is Zach Taylor is your head coach that feels like

752
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 3: the downside, and maybe he goes with the run heavy

753
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 3: approach that they used earlier in the season, but with

754
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 3: twelve to one odds like that, that's baked into it.

755
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 3: So you're looking at the ceiling case, not the median

756
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 3: case in this market, and the ceiling case is there

757
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 3: for all the reasons that you guys laid out.

758
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 1: I hope there. My hope there is that the reason

759
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 1: that they were run heavy at the start of last

760
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: year was just because they were really cognizant of that

761
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 1: acl and then hopefully this year they won't be as

762
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 1: worried about an appendix, my dad got his gallbladder taken

763
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: out and took a half day off work. I think

764
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 1: Joe bros Should be just fine for week one. Matt,

765
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: what is your next player prop?

766
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 2: Here?

767
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: You've got the four to five spot here, So there

768
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 1: you go.

769
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 3: You sure we shouldn't come back to Sean? Can I

770
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 3: keep on making that mistake? Okay? I've teased Traylon Brooks

771
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,399
Speaker 3: long enough. Traylon Brooks under fifty seven and a half

772
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 3: receptions or you know, Traylon under seven hundred and twenty

773
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 3: five and a half yards either way, like I don't care.

774
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 3: It's basically the same bet. I prefer under fifty seven

775
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 3: and a half receptions. But honestly, if you just wanted

776
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 3: to get down more money, you just bet on both

777
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 3: of these. Bet the under on both of them fifty

778
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 3: seven and a half receptions. I have this projected at

779
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:22,280
Speaker 3: fifty one point three draft Kings minus one fifteen man.

780
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 3: In Week two of the preseason, Burks he played five

781
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 3: snaps with the first team, but he was in a

782
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 3: five man rotation with Nick Westbrook. Akine, Racy McMath. That's

783
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 3: not a name I made up. That's the actual name

784
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 3: of someone who was taking NFL snaps in the preseason.

785
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: That's not a name, that's a collection of words.

786
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 3: Right, Racy McMath, It sounds fake. Cody Hollister, whose name

787
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 3: also sounds fake, and Kyle Phillips. All of those guys

788
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 3: had four to six snaps with the first team in

789
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 3: Week two of the preseason. Like he can barely he

790
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 3: being Burks can barely earn snap as when competing against

791
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 3: these guys, let alone targets. Like based on what we

792
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 3: have seen in the preseason, Burks isn't winning the positional battle,

793
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 3: and I fully expect him to open the campaign behind

794
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 3: Robert Woods as the number one receiver on the team,

795
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,760
Speaker 3: and like that is looking just at what we've seen

796
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:20,959
Speaker 3: in preseason games in action with the first team. That's

797
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 3: not even taking into account all of the negative reporting

798
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 3: that has surrounded Traylon Burks basically since he was drafted

799
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 3: and reported to rookie mini camp. So I am very

800
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 3: much down on Traylon Burks for this year. I think

801
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 3: he has the talent, like the long term talent to

802
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 3: be a guy who contributes maybe near the end of

803
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 3: the season year two, year three, but I don't think

804
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 3: that's going to hit early enough for him to hit

805
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 3: the over of fifty seven and a half receptions in

806
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 3: over seven hundred and twenty five and a half yards receiving.

807
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 3: So I'm very much taking the under.

808
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 1: This doesn't feel to me like the negative reporting around

809
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase last year where everybody was going, oh, you

810
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: can't catch a ball, what a terrible pick by by

811
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 1: the Bengals. This feels like it's got a lot more

812
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 1: meat to me.

813
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 2: Sean, what do you think, Yeah, absolutely, I mean he

814
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 2: has a white We knew he had a wide range

815
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 2: of outcomes when he was drafted, and unfortunately it looks

816
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 2: like it's closer to the floor than we realized. So

817
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 2: I do like and I agree with Freeman like long term,

818
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 2: I'm not giving up on him. I think he could

819
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 2: finally figure it out. Adapt He's very talented, so I

820
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 2: could see towards the end of the season. He's a

821
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 2: hot name and fancy. But when we know, you know,

822
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 2: out of the gate, out of the gate, he's probably

823
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:31,839
Speaker 2: gonna be slow. That gives you a head start on

824
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 2: these props. So yeah, I do like betting on his

825
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,280
Speaker 2: floor and taking the under on these.

826
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 1: One more prop each. Gentleman, Here, Matt, we start with you.

827
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 3: Okay, there are two guys who are in very similar situations,

828
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 3: and they were actually tied together last year, so I'm

829
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,399
Speaker 3: sort of like cheating and giving a little like two

830
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 3: for one here Albert Okuway Bunam and Noah Fanse like

831
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 3: under for both of these guys.

832
00:39:58,640 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: Hats off for the name pronounce you.

833
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 3: I think I maybe got it only thirty percent wrong,

834
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 3: which I feel like is a pretty big win.

835
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 1: You made an attempt flawlessly, it was the confidence with

836
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 1: which it was delivered that sold me.

837
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, if I did it again, guaranteed I would have

838
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: a different pronunciation of the last name. It's a real

839
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 3: Kerner Corner type of situation going on with Albert Oh.

840
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 3: No one really knows how to pronounce his name.

841
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 2: Just call him Albert Corner. Just call him Albert Corner.

842
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, Okay, I'm going under for Albert Oh. I'm not

843
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 3: going to talk about fan, but I'll talk about alberta

844
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 3: under five hundred and twenty five and a half yards receiving.

845
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,720
Speaker 3: So Greg Dolciic, the third round rookie who was drafted

846
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 3: by the Broncos. He's missed weeks one and two with

847
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 3: a hamstring injury. But even with that oak wave, Benham's

848
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 3: usage has been concerning. Right, all of the starters have

849
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 3: rested for the Broncos, but Albert Oh has played. And

850
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 3: the thing is he's played and he hasn't dominated usage.

851
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 3: So it's like you put those two things together and

852
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 3: is really concerning. In Week one, he and Eric Tomlinson

853
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 3: both played eight first team snaps and then Albert Oh

854
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:08,280
Speaker 3: played all the way to halftime. That's really bad usage

855
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 3: considering we want to see our starters get maybe a

856
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 3: little bit of usage and then get like wrapped in

857
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 3: bubble wrap and put on the sideline, and then in

858
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 3: week two he ran around on eighty percent of the

859
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 3: first team dropbacks. That is good, that's encouraging, But then

860
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 3: he still played all the way into the fourth quarter

861
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 3: and he played just ten of nineteen first team snaps,

862
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 3: So that's bad. We have no idea what what Dulcich's

863
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 3: usage is going to look like in the regular season.

864
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 3: But the way that they the team is treating albert

865
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 3: O right now and the way that they are talking

866
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 3: about him as like someone who needs to get more reps,

867
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,879
Speaker 3: like that's what they're saying to justify why they're giving

868
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 3: him more preseason playing time. That's not a good thing.

869
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 3: That's not something you say about someone who is a

870
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 3: locked in starter. And if albert O is not a

871
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 3: locked in starter, five hundred and twenty five and a

872
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 3: half half yards receiving fills way too high.

873
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 1: Uh, Sean, what do you think?

874
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I'm probably staying away from this just because

875
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 2: Tim Patrick's injury does clear a path for albert O

876
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 2: to potentially be the number three target. But I do

877
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 2: take Freeman's point. I think this is one of those

878
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 2: props out there that there is a potential out where

879
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 2: obviously every player, you know, if they get injured and

880
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 2: miss time, the under is gonna hit. But yeah, with

881
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 2: Greg Dulcic, it's unclear how this is gonna shake out.

882
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 2: So there is potential that albert O could get leap

883
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: frog by him, So that's a potential out for the under.

884
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 2: But either way, I'm probably just staying away because it

885
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 2: seems like there's a wide range of outcomes, especially with

886
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 2: Tim Patrick out that usually these I stay away.

887
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 3: There is a wide range. I freely admit that, and

888
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 3: I was. I was very bullish on albert Oh the

889
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 3: moment that the Noah trade happened. I thought both of

890
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 3: those guys would be freed. But they still find themselves

891
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 3: right now. It looks like in tight end committees, which

892
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 3: is really frustrating.

893
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 1: I'm also just a little bit inclined to say that

894
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 1: last year's rookie tight end Fiesta, there isn't always a

895
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 1: Kyle Pitt. There A lot of these rookie tight ends

896
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 1: do struggle a little bit with the physicality and speed

897
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 1: of the NFL game at first in their careers, and

898
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: it's like that second season where we start seeing these

899
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,399
Speaker 1: guys take off. I think that could come into play

900
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: here as well. But Sean, what is your final pick here?

901
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, so I like taking these long shot props

902
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 2: because you know a lot of these props, you know,

903
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 2: were limited. I don't like tying up money on you know,

904
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty props, So I like swinging for the fences.

905
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 2: This has to be my favorite prop going right now,

906
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 2: and it's Najie Harris to lead the league in rushing

907
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 2: yards at twenty to one. Twenty to one? Are you

908
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 2: kidding me? I just love the value we're getting here

909
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 2: because he's entering year two, he's only twenty four years old.

910
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 2: He's going to be able to handle another massive workload

911
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 2: this season. You know, the Steelers attempted six hundred and

912
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 2: sixty four passes last year, which is fourth most in

913
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 2: the league. That had a lot to do with big

914
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 2: bench just being ridiculously inefficient. So either way, I think

915
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 2: they're going to be a little bit more balance this year,

916
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,919
Speaker 2: so we could see even more carries for Naje Harris. Plus,

917
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 2: he has almost zero competition for touches, which helps in

918
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: a market like this. The only thing you can kind

919
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:22,399
Speaker 2: of poke at is his three point nine yards per

920
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 2: carry last year, which I'm putting the entire blame on

921
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 2: the offensive line, and I'm not saying it's going to

922
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 2: get better this year, but just when it comes to

923
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 2: projecting yards per carry, it's a very fickle metric, so

924
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 2: that could bounce back the other way this year. I

925
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if he ends up averaging, you know,

926
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 2: four point two or four point three yards per carry.

927
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 2: Combining with his volume this year, that makes him very

928
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 2: viable in this market. And just running backs in general

929
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 2: are very fragile. So if a Jonathan Taylor or Derrick

930
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:53,240
Speaker 2: Henry were able to just miss one or two games

931
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 2: and Nage were to play the whole season, I mean,

932
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 2: he's going to be very He's going to look very

933
00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 2: good in this market. So I just love the value

934
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 2: we're getting at twenty to one, and nause your hairs

935
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 2: to lead the league in rushing yards.

936
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 1: All right, Matt, Any final thoughts on that now?

937
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 3: I love it. Twenty to one feels ridiculous for a

938
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 3: guy who has I mean, I wouldn't say he's Dereck Henry,

939
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,840
Speaker 3: He's not, but who has let like that Derreck Henry

940
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 3: type of body and could probably sustain a really big usage, like, yeah,

941
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,240
Speaker 3: there's value in twenty to one.

942
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 1: I think the other benefit there is that he can

943
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 1: sustain a really big usage while it will also be

944
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 1: the Derrick Henry body onslot that inevitably leads to him

945
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 1: getting hurt before the end of the season. It'll be

946
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 1: that nice balance of you're getting a ton of yardage,

947
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 1: but you're not necessarily getting all of the wear and

948
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 1: tear that could lead you to getting sunk by a

949
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: late late season injury that just end you're right before

950
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 1: the final push. Guys, it has been a pleasure having

951
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 1: you on here, Sean, Matt, but it was a great time.

952
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Sean. Where can people find you

953
00:45:58,320 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 1: in the great work that you're doing.

954
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 2: All my work at Actionnetwork dot com and you can

955
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 2: find me on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker all.

956
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,280
Speaker 1: Right, and Matt of course you can find at Matt

957
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 1: f the Oracle. You can find me at TV at work,

958
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:15,760
Speaker 1: and guys, don't forget to follow at Betting Pros as well.

959
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 1: Check out all of the awesome content that Matt is

960
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 1: putting up each and every each and every day, Matt.

961
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 3: H Yeah at this point of the season, Yeah, each

962
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 3: and every day. Unfortunately, Yep, we are right back to it.

963
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 2: Guys.

964
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 1: Stick around for next week. We are going to be

965
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 1: heading into the NFL regular season, which means it's gonna

966
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,479
Speaker 1: be time to talk about some more futures predictions. Gonna

967
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:38,759
Speaker 1: be having a great guest on for that one as well.

968
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: You do not want to miss it. But in the meantime, gentlemen,

969
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 1: once again, thank you so much for your time, and guys,

970
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 1: let's cash some tickets.