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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by fan Duel

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Speaker 1: Brendan Glasheen, joined by our two MMA experts. They have

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Speaker 1: all things covered in the Action app also Actionnetwork dot Com,

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Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward. In this episode, we're breaking

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Speaker 1: down UFC Vegas Yon versus Davis Vili this weekend from

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Speaker 1: the theater at Virgin Hotels in Vegas, looking at our

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Speaker 1: favorite underdogs, props and more, and then we'll finish up

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Speaker 1: with best bets. But first we, as we normally do,

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Speaker 1: dissect the main event. We have puoter Yan and morobdavas Vili.

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Speaker 1: Sorry folks for the name pronunciations. Is a tough card

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Speaker 1: this week, so we'll do our best as we break

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Speaker 1: this one down. I'm really curious as to how you

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Speaker 1: guys go about it, because if you're a new listener

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Speaker 1: when we talk to UFC, we're not just coming on

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Speaker 1: here laying juice some money lines or taking the dog.

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Speaker 1: There's different ways you can go about betting these particular fights.

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Speaker 3: So Zarrillo, when.

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Speaker 1: You first look at the matchup, break that part down

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Speaker 1: and then tell us how you want to bet it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we're not in the Apex this week, but we

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Speaker 4: are still using a small page that is very important

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Speaker 4: for a bunch of these fights that we're going to

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Speaker 4: talk about, So just didn't want to contextualize that and.

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Speaker 5: For the main event.

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Speaker 4: Smaller cage certainly helps Marob in my opinion, wrestles like

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Speaker 4: a dog on a bone. Throughout his UFC run. It

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Speaker 4: attempts sixteen and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, so

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Speaker 4: take down every minute. Doesn't have great top control, but

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Speaker 4: he's consistent and reliable to come forward, shoot at your legs,

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Speaker 4: try to grab a bodylock and take you down, or

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Speaker 4: if he can't, he'll press you up against the cage

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Speaker 4: and hold you there for extended periods, as he did

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Speaker 4: with Jose, although basically forced Josel to retire after that fight.

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Speaker 4: It was so boring Jose didn't want to fight any more.

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Speaker 4: But I think Pierre jan is a nightmare matchup for Morob.

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Speaker 4: He might even be the worst matchup in the division

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Speaker 4: for Morob good counter grappler excellent and scrambles and he's

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Speaker 4: clearly the better striker. The one weakness we've seen from

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Speaker 4: Jan is the bodylock. Al Jamine Sterling was able to

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Speaker 4: lock in the bodylock for three rounds against him, and

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Speaker 4: that basically won him the decision against Yan. In addition

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Speaker 4: to the fact that Jan is typically a slow starter

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Speaker 4: and usually loses the first round in his fights because

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Speaker 4: he likes to be patient, get his reads, get his

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Speaker 4: timing down before he starts letting his hands go. So

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Speaker 4: always the chance that Jan drops round one. In fact,

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Speaker 4: it's more often than not that he has dropped it.

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Speaker 4: If you're looking to get a better price on Yon

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Speaker 4: live after round one may be a decent entry. That said,

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Speaker 4: I don't expect Morob to inflict a lot of damage

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Speaker 4: on him. Does have some nice kicks. Maybe Yan just

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Speaker 4: doesn't let his hands go at all for the first

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Speaker 4: round and loses it on a lack of activity. But

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Speaker 4: the longer the fight goes, I do expect Jan to

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Speaker 4: eventually open up and he should land the much more significant,

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Speaker 4: impactful and damaging strikes. I think the pace might be

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Speaker 4: crazy early on. As I mentioned, Morob shoots a takedown

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Speaker 4: per minute. We'll see if he changes because this is

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Speaker 4: his first five round fight. If he kind of changes

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Speaker 4: his style a little, bit just to manage that guardio

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Speaker 4: and that gas think better over the course of five rounds.

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Speaker 4: But in terms of how I want to bet this fight,

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Speaker 4: because I do expect Jan to keep it on the

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Speaker 4: feet and beat Morob up. For portions of it, Yan

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Speaker 4: inside the distance of plus two twenty interest me. I've

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Speaker 4: projected that closer to plus one eighty five. Morob is

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Speaker 4: just super durable and he has phenomenal cardios, so you

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Speaker 4: don't necessarily expect him to fall apart down the stretch.

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Speaker 4: He might slow down, but I don't think he'll fall

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Speaker 4: off a cliff completely. And it also takes a lot

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Speaker 4: to put him away. And it's not like Jan is

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Speaker 4: necessarily a one big hit or quitter. He's more of

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Speaker 4: an nutritional finisher, and he also stays safe. He's not

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Speaker 4: going to go wild trying to finish his opponents. So

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Speaker 4: not as interested in playing the inside distance as I

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Speaker 4: would be in a Yan in the over one and

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Speaker 4: a half rounds. If you can find a saying game

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Speaker 4: parlay or I will leave Billy to the way he's

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Speaker 4: looking at playing the fight. Because Yan and over two

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Speaker 4: and a half rounds is minus two twenty. Billy has

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Speaker 4: a similar approach that is basically the same angle so

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Speaker 4: Yon in an extended fight because he just generally doesn't

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Speaker 4: start letting his hands go till about the five seven

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Speaker 4: and a half minute marks. So that's why like the

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Speaker 4: correlation with the overs there. But I think he has

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Speaker 4: a chance to finish this fight in the later rounds

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Speaker 4: as well as Rob is tiring.

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Speaker 3: All right, Billy, what do you got this spantam weight showdown?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Sean alluded to it. I'm seeing the fight pretty

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Speaker 6: much the same way as him. The butt I'm making

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Speaker 6: on it is Yan in rounds four, rounds, five or

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Speaker 6: by decision, you know, the fan duel multiple rounds. That's

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Speaker 6: minus one twenty. He's definitely more built for a five

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Speaker 6: round fight than Marov. Just that all that aggressive wrestling

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Speaker 6: is really hard to keep up over five rounds, where Yan,

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Speaker 6: you know, manages his pace well as we've seen, you know,

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Speaker 6: he takes the first round off, kind of builds up slowly.

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Speaker 6: That is all designed around winning five round fights. And

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Speaker 6: you know, one thing I wanted to mention, Jan is

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Speaker 6: like the poster boy for my luck rankings column that

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Speaker 6: I do. He has four career losses, three split decisions

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Speaker 6: and one disqualification in a fight he was winning. Arguably,

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Speaker 6: the last split decision against O'Malley was bad, like he

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Speaker 6: should have won that one. The one against al Jamn

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Speaker 6: was pretty close. You know, Sean mentioned his weaknesses to

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Speaker 6: being body locked and backpacked by al Jamayn. Al Jamain

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Speaker 6: is extremely tall and long. Marob is not built that way,

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Speaker 6: so I don't think that's going to be the issue.

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Speaker 6: Marob's gonna have to more traditionally wrestle him down, stay

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Speaker 6: on top of him, keep his weight on, which just

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Speaker 6: takes a lot. One takes a lot more energy, and

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Speaker 6: two is a lot harder to do. So I'm pretty

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Speaker 6: confident that Yan figures this one out at some point

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Speaker 6: or another. You know, that four or five R decision

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Speaker 6: seems to cover the most likely bases, and at minus

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Speaker 6: one twenty it's pretty solid price. But again agreed with Sean.

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Speaker 6: If you want to be a little bit safer, you

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Speaker 6: can go Yan and over one and a half. There's

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Speaker 6: or yeahn Live if you're watching this live and can

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Speaker 6: get a better price on that. I think we see

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Speaker 6: it pretty much the same way, just slightly different ways

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Speaker 6: to play.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I'm so glad he brought up the points

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Speaker 4: one about the Luck rankings, because when I was thinking

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Speaker 4: about this fight, I was like, I guarantee that Yan

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Speaker 4: has written about at the top of Billies the Luck

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Speaker 4: Rankings this week because the last two splits directly, but

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Speaker 4: also with the wrestling the body lock that is not

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Speaker 4: a technique Morob implies.

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Speaker 5: As you mentioned, his limbs are much shorter.

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Speaker 4: He's more of a traditional wrestler or going to look

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Speaker 4: to fight out of the plinch and get throws like that.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I don't see him having the same techniques

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Speaker 4: that bothered Yan from Al Joe. Even though Morob is

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Speaker 4: one of out of his teammates, he doesn't really fight

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Speaker 4: in the same style.

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Speaker 1: And as Billy notes in his write up, you can

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Speaker 1: find an Action Network dot com he has the Yon

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Speaker 1: dove of the Villi money line fairly valued.

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Speaker 3: Yan likely undervalued.

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Speaker 1: However, in the prop market, So for be sure to

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Speaker 1: look carefully and have.

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Speaker 3: A look at that article. I'm glad he worked in

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Speaker 3: the Luck rankings once again.

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Speaker 1: On the podcasts, that's must do. As far as what

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Speaker 1: we have to do here on the pod, let's go

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Speaker 1: to favorite underdog Zarrillo.

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Speaker 3: What catches your eye?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, favorite underdog this week, you know, we're actually going

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Speaker 4: to get to an underdog that we maybe both prefer

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Speaker 4: in our Friday the Night in the next segment, but

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Speaker 4: another underdog I am betting is half il suns Out

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Speaker 4: plus one twenty. Now I want to get away from

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Speaker 4: betting these forty year olds like Jessica Pine last week.

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Speaker 4: Just the drop off, the likelihood that there's a significant

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Speaker 4: athletic decline once you hit that age is much more apparent.

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Speaker 4: But in this fight, he's facing our data Grant, who's

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Speaker 4: thirty seven years old and is also coming in on

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Speaker 4: short notice and doesn't have great party So I actually

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Speaker 4: think of Suncao would have the cardio advantage if both

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Speaker 4: were on a full camp. Considering Grant is coming in

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Speaker 4: on short notice, I think it's a bigger advantage for

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Speaker 4: a suns out, And I'm less concerned about betting a

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Speaker 4: forty year old against the thirty seventy year old than

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Speaker 4: I would be against the thirty year old on the

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Speaker 4: way up. In the early exchanges that they're striking, I

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Speaker 4: think Grant could certainly find the chin and the suntushchin

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Speaker 4: at this point in his career is a bit of concern,

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Speaker 4: But the speed differential that you saw in that Cody

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Speaker 4: Garbrant fight. That's not going to be nearly the speed

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Speaker 4: gap between these two. Garbrandt was able to put him,

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Speaker 4: why just because a Senseau couldn't even see the hands

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Speaker 4: that were coming at him from a guy that quick.

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Speaker 4: But Grant a Sunsow. This speech should be much closer here,

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Speaker 4: and all of the grappling upside is in the Sunshow corner.

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Speaker 4: Grant actually hasn't faced that many grapplers on his UFC run.

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Speaker 4: I think a Sunshaw is gonna be able to take

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Speaker 4: him down to potentially submit him. He hasn'tubmitted somebody in

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Speaker 4: a long time. But the submission odds are interesting. I

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Speaker 4: think he either gets the submission or secures enough top

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Speaker 4: time to win a decision. So sonhow in my mind,

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Speaker 4: I think you could make him an arguable slight favor here.

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Speaker 4: The only real concern is the age, but his opponent

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Speaker 4: has that as well.

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Speaker 3: Billy, what do you got underdog?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, this is a tremendous card for underdogs. Honestly, it

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Speaker 6: was hard to narrow this one down. I'm going with

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Speaker 6: Tony Gravey, which actually works nicely off of Sean's pick.

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Speaker 6: Tony Graveley. He is fighting Victor Henry, who just lost

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Speaker 6: a unanimous decision to Raelis on sou Gravely as a

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Speaker 6: similar fighter, but he's thirty one, far better athlete, very

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Speaker 6: very good, aggressive wrestler, and Victor Henry he can grapple,

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Speaker 6: but he's not a wrestler. He's happy to accept bottom

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Speaker 6: position while he's looking for triangle submission stuff like that.

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Speaker 6: I just don't think that's a good way to fight

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Speaker 6: these days, because you're losing minutes all along. If you

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Speaker 6: don't catch the submission, then you've pretty much guaranteed a

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Speaker 6: loss to the fight. And I was impressed by Gravely

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Speaker 6: in some of his recent fights. He actually defended a guillotine,

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Speaker 6: which everyone who's listened to this podcast for a long

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Speaker 6: time knows is my pet peeve because it's really not

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Speaker 6: that hard, but guys get caught in it, you know,

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Speaker 6: defended guillotines really well, stayed out of trouble, maintained top control.

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Speaker 6: I have a little bit of concerns with Gravey's cardio

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Speaker 6: if he's not able to get the takedowns. But if

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Speaker 6: he gets the takedown and he's lying on top of you,

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Speaker 6: that doesn't use a ton of energy. Victor, Henry is

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Speaker 6: gonna let him lie there and you know, win minutes,

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Speaker 6: win rounds, which I think is going to be enough

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Speaker 6: to allow Gravely to manage his gas a little bit better.

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Speaker 6: But you know, as Sean's pointing out, Victor Henry just

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Speaker 6: lost to forty year old half I elis on sou

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Speaker 6: fighting a thirty one year old up and comer, much

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Speaker 6: more athletic, solid striking, good wrestling. I would make Gravely

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Speaker 6: a slight favorite, and you can get him at plus

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Speaker 6: one twenty four and real quick. Not going to do

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Speaker 6: a full explanation on this. Tyson Nam plus one seventy

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Speaker 6: love him this week, Arion Lipski at plus three hundred.

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Speaker 6: Those are just a couple of other underdogs I'm looking at.

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Speaker 4: I just want to comment on the the Henry Grayley

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Speaker 4: fight because Gravely also a fast starter. Abillity said he

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Speaker 4: likes him as a pre fight favorite. I think Gravely

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Speaker 4: is very very very likely to win that first round,

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Speaker 4: especially with the wrestling. So if you like Henry, definitely

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Speaker 4: wait live after round one. But from a pre fight perspective,

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Speaker 4: I think Gravely wins that first round in a high

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Speaker 4: cliff banks around. I think he needs to win one

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Speaker 4: of these things.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to the guys fight of the night this week.

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Speaker 1: They have eyed, said Norma gometof Jonathan Martinez. Right now

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Speaker 1: looking at Fandel, these two fighters going head to head.

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Speaker 3: On the main card.

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Speaker 1: Nourma Gometoff is at minus two sixty Tinez plus two.

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Speaker 3: To oh five.

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Speaker 1: Those are the money line odds at the Fandel Sportsbook.

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Speaker 1: First and foremost, as we like to do, why did

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Speaker 1: this spight zerlo jump out to you?

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Speaker 3: And what's the angle?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the betting public really dislikes sayed Nurga Nanadov.

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Speaker 4: They see him sort of as a guy who keeps

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Speaker 4: overachieving relative to how he looks in the rest of

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Speaker 4: his fights. He's getting finishes, but he isn't necessarily dominating

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Speaker 4: on minutes. He keeps getting lined as a substantial favorite,

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Speaker 4: but he's not necessarily covering his price in how the

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Speaker 4: fights are playing out. He's extremely technical, he doesn't throw

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Speaker 4: a lot of volume. He's the grappling upside in this fight.

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Speaker 4: He doesn't wrestle often, so he's a bit of a

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Speaker 4: weird fighter in that he's extremely talented and you see

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Speaker 4: the well rounded skill set, but also he doesn't leave

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Speaker 4: himself much upside because of his activity levels. So if

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Speaker 4: this is an extended kickboxing match, it's hard to imagine

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Speaker 4: Jonathan Martinez not eating.

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Speaker 5: The fight on volume.

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Speaker 4: He may not necessarily land more damage, but I certainly

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Speaker 4: expect him to land more strikes. Mixes it up to

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Speaker 4: all three levels with his kicks. Said, has some phenomenally

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Speaker 4: dynamic kicks as well, spinning stuff, spinning strikes of all kinds.

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Speaker 4: So that's what makes him such an interesting fighter because

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Speaker 4: he doesn't necessarily let it go, but when he does,

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Speaker 4: it's very beautiful and very technical. If this fight plays

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Speaker 4: out for an extended amount of time on the feet,

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Speaker 4: I think it's impossible that Martinez doesn't pay off his price.

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Speaker 4: Hat This should be a very competitive striking match. Said,

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Speaker 4: as I mentioned, does I have the grappling upside. I

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Speaker 4: don't really see it coming into play in this fight

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Speaker 4: to a significant degree. But he is always live to

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Speaker 4: sort of grab his emission and to scramble and finish

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Speaker 4: these fights, so I understand his favoritism. I just think

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Speaker 4: the line is a little bit too wide, particularly if

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Speaker 4: this goes through a decision.

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Speaker 5: I would bet.

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Speaker 4: Martinez down to about plus one to eighty five. I've

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Speaker 4: projected him closer to plus one seventy or some plus

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Speaker 4: two twenties out there, and I also like him to

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Speaker 4: win by decision. Projected that at plus sixty there's some

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Speaker 4: plus four hundreds at Fandel, So I think those are

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Speaker 4: both great bets. Martinez in a longer fight, I think

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Speaker 4: should be extremely competitive, will definitely pay off the price

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Speaker 4: in your ticket.

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Speaker 1: Billy, both fighters have a four fight win streak coming in,

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Speaker 1: So how do you go about weighing your decision?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, One of the things I always like to point

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Speaker 6: out when said is fighting, he is not actually related

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Speaker 6: to Bieber Umar or any of the other famous NORMALGA madoffs.

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Speaker 6: He trains out there in a similar area. But I

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Speaker 6: think he gets a little boost on his money line

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Speaker 6: just because people think he's the next Kabeb, he's the

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Speaker 6: next Dumar, he's the next Makachev. No relation, just happens

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Speaker 6: to have the same last name. And he doesn't really

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Speaker 6: fight like them, you know, Sean pointed out he doesn't

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Speaker 6: grapple very much. I think it's about half a takedown

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Speaker 6: for fifteen minutes, and you know, he did it a

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Speaker 6: ton in his last fight, But he frequently does what

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Speaker 6: I think is just a horrible game plan, which is

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Speaker 6: when your opponent starts to grapple, he looks to lock

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Speaker 6: up via teams and ends up on his back. He

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Speaker 6: was getting dominated in his last fight. It almost got

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Speaker 6: finished a couple of times, finally caught one of those guillotines.

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Speaker 6: It worked out for him, but looked like he should

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Speaker 6: have been a massive underdog against cochromonof in his last fight,

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Speaker 6: and then kind of just pulled that miracle guillotine. That's

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Speaker 6: not a good way to win minutes, right because you're

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Speaker 6: on your back, you're tiring your arms out, you're losing

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Speaker 6: the round. Whether it works or not, I don't know,

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Speaker 6: but I don't think Martinez is gonna fall for that,

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Speaker 6: especially when we've seen all the guillotines. I also really

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Speaker 6: like Martinez in the stand up has some of the

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Speaker 6: best leg kicks in the division, if not the USC

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Speaker 6: right now has finished a fight with leg kicks. His

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Speaker 6: last fight, he just destroyed his opponent's CAF, which made

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Speaker 6: the fight super easy for him. The longer this one

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Speaker 6: stays standing, the more I'm gonna be on Martinez, and

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Speaker 6: you know you can get him plus two times plus

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Speaker 6: two to fifteen elsewhere in the market. I'm with Sean

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Speaker 6: had take him down to about plus one seventy years, so.

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Speaker 1: All right, very good again. Martinez, Norma Gometov. Both have

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Speaker 1: won four straight fights entering the weekend in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 3: A couple more.

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Speaker 1: We have props and then best bets, so we'll go

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Speaker 1: to the prop market first off, plus.

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Speaker 3: Money plays here.

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Speaker 1: Zarrillo, you have a a small edge on something that

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Speaker 1: you have coming up here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, heavyweight fight to go to a decision. Lucas Breski

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Speaker 4: and Williams. Williams making his UFC DEBU officially looked really

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Speaker 4: good on Contender Series. Out wrestled a Division one wrestler,

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Speaker 4: which was very impressive. The reason why I like this

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Speaker 4: fight is because we have a couple of light heavyweights

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Speaker 4: competing at heavyweight, not cutting weight. I mentioned last week

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Speaker 4: heavyweight fights and inside the distance seventy five percent of

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Speaker 4: the time. The biggest difference dropping from one weight class

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Speaker 4: to the next in terms of difference in finishing rate

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Speaker 4: is from heavyweight to light heavyweight. There's a ten percent

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Speaker 4: drop off in finishing rate when you move down from

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Speaker 4: two sixty five to two oh five. These are two

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Speaker 4: hundred and five pounders moving up to heavyweight without cutting,

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Speaker 4: So the finishing rate, in my opinion, should actually be

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Speaker 4: even lower than sixty five percent the light heavyweight average,

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Speaker 4: because neither of these guys are cutting weight to get

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Speaker 4: to the weight that they're fighting at.

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Speaker 5: I think it's.

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Speaker 4: Actually more concerning Williams finishes or the chance that Williams

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Speaker 4: finishes breast and the feet with his power, that would

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Speaker 4: concern me more than the potential for him to finish

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Speaker 4: this one on the mat. He tends to control his

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Speaker 4: opponents on the mat, and I actually trust Bresky to

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Speaker 4: stay safe on the mat with his jiu jitsu. So

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Speaker 4: I think we see an extended fight play out, maybe

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Speaker 4: a lot of top time for Williams, maybe some low

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Speaker 4: paced kickboxing on the feed, but heavyweight.

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Speaker 5: Overs in general pretty much.

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Speaker 4: The sharp side, a lot of stuff that you see

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Speaker 4: sharp betters having their portfolios on a week to week basis.

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Speaker 4: I projected this fight to go to the decision more

358
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Speaker 4: than fifty percent of the time, so getting plus one

359
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 4: to fourteen on that bet I think is a solid number.

360
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Speaker 3: Billy prop Market, what do you think?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I really like the rescheduled Ryan span Nikita Krailoff fight,

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Speaker 6: assuming it actually happens this time. This was supposed to

363
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Speaker 6: be the main event a couple weeks ago. Then it

364
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Speaker 6: was a two hundred and five pound fight. This time

365
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 6: they're doing a two to fifteen catchway. Then it was

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Speaker 6: supposed to be a five round fight. This time they're

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Speaker 6: bringing it back to three rounds. I think both of

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Speaker 6: those things favor Span pretty heavily.

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Speaker 5: He is mad.

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Speaker 6: I said, he's six y five with like a six

371
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Speaker 6: to ten wingspan, just massive for the division. So giving

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Speaker 6: him extra ten pounds to give him a little bit

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Speaker 6: extra juice, and you know he's a guy who fights

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Speaker 6: very aggressively, not having to worry about saving two extra

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Speaker 6: rounds of cardio. I think it's a huge edge in

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Speaker 6: his direction. So I'm looking at him to win in

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Speaker 6: either of the first two rounds of plus two to fifty.

378
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,360
Speaker 6: On FanDuel, he has seven UFC wins, six of them

379
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Speaker 6: he stopped in the first two rounds. This is another.

380
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,720
Speaker 6: I'm not very confident he's going to win, but if

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Speaker 6: he wins, it's going to be early. Not a great

382
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Speaker 6: cardio guy, very risky fighter. You know, he's either gonna

383
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Speaker 6: win or lose fairly quickly. He's gonna make that happen.

384
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,399
Speaker 6: But plus two fifty is a really good odds when

385
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:37,879
Speaker 6: you compare it to his money line of plus one

386
00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:39,399
Speaker 6: forty plus one fifty range.

387
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Speaker 4: I just want to comment, because we talked about this

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Speaker 4: by two weeks ago as our main event. I was

389
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Speaker 4: on Krylov at the time in a five round fight.

390
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 4: I do not like him here in a three round fight.

391
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Speaker 4: It just sort of lowers his ceiling because if that

392
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Speaker 4: fight had extended to the fourth or fifth round or

393
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Speaker 4: gone to a decision, he was so likely to win.

394
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Speaker 4: The three round fight doesn't have that upside. In addition

395
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Speaker 4: to the fact, as Billy said, and also the fact

396
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Speaker 4: that Krylov pulled out of that last fight because he

397
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 4: was sick, so who knows how he's in the gym,

398
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 4: how he was feeling in between the two fights. It

399
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 4: sounded like it was a stomach illness. But all the same,

400
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,520
Speaker 4: that's three red flags on his side relative to the

401
00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:14,240
Speaker 4: previous booking.

402
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:15,200
Speaker 5: It's a pass for me now.

403
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Speaker 3: Finally, Best bets for UFC Vegas again taking.

404
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 1: Place at the Theater at the From the theater at

405
00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 1: the Virgin Hotels, Zurillo.

406
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Speaker 3: You can go first your best bet.

407
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 4: As Billy told us earlier, it is pleasure man fight

408
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 4: week and Talantercli I like him on the money line

409
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 4: at minus one ten. He was dog money earlier in

410
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,800
Speaker 4: the week. The line is sort of grouped towards his side.

411
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,120
Speaker 4: As the week has gone along. Looking at some Sharper books,

412
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,080
Speaker 4: he's gotten up to minus one twenty and his opponent

413
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:48,880
Speaker 4: is sitting at even money, So I think the sharp

414
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 4: money has certainly poured in Onter Calli lost his UFC

415
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,640
Speaker 4: debut at a catchweight the Jaeltono made a potential two

416
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:59,919
Speaker 4: division future champion at light heavyweight and heavyweight. Elk rappler

417
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 4: never was going to look good in that matchup. He's

418
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Speaker 4: going to take on a contender series all I'm here,

419
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:06,680
Speaker 4: who has a one hundred percent finish rate, but against

420
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 4: low level competition. This is a striker versus grappler matchup,

421
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:14,120
Speaker 4: Patrino the striker to Coli the grappler. I expect Petrino

422
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 4: to be dangerous in round one, but after that he

423
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 4: should start to fade because he's not used to getting extended.

424
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,880
Speaker 4: So to Cali pre fight minus one ten live after

425
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,399
Speaker 4: round one, especially if he gets clipped. But looks okay

426
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,120
Speaker 4: after the round, would look to better at a better

427
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,919
Speaker 4: price than minus one ten. And then last I like

428
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,159
Speaker 4: that money line up to minus one twenty five. And

429
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,119
Speaker 4: then lastly his submission or decision prop at plus one

430
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,880
Speaker 4: to eighty. Given the grappling upside, I think he either

431
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,880
Speaker 4: gets a submission or top times his opponent for an

432
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 4: easy fifteen minute decisions. So give me the pleasure man.

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00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,399
Speaker 4: Minus one at twenty five are better.

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00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 3: And Billy take us home.

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00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,880
Speaker 6: Just to add on to Sean real quick, anyone listen

436
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,439
Speaker 6: to this, go to the typology page for Turcli. It

437
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,920
Speaker 6: is by far the best combination of nickname and profile

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00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 6: picture I've ever seen on topology. Well, just throwing that

439
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 6: out there. I'm looking at Sidrik Dumas. He was minus

440
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 6: one forty minus one fifty range earlier in the week.

441
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,879
Speaker 6: Loved the money line at that price. A ton of

442
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 6: money coming in on him. He's all the way down

443
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,120
Speaker 6: to minus two to fifty in some spots, more commonly

444
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 6: minus two ten minus two to fifteen. That's a lot

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00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 6: to pay on a UFC debut, But he's finished six

446
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 6: of his seven wins massive middleweight. He's fighting Josh frem

447
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 6: who's kind of just a guy. You know, he's zeroing

448
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 6: too in the UFC. Not nothing exceptional, not really horrible

449
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 6: at anything, no real strong skills. So his inside the

450
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 6: distance line though on Dumas is still minus one twenty five.

451
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,959
Speaker 6: I think that's a massive value relative to his money line,

452
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 6: just because we've never really seen him contender series or

453
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 6: otherwise fight long into a fight. You know, he comes

454
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 6: out there, he gets guys out of their huge power,

455
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 6: some good submissions as well, and there's a lot of

456
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,719
Speaker 6: question marks about how we would do down the stretch.

457
00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 6: So those lines should be a lot closer than they

458
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 6: are to each other right now. If you were betting

459
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 6: this earlier in the week, I'd say just take the

460
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 6: money line. But right now, minus one twenty five inside

461
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 6: the distance is not.

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00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 5: Bad at all. So it's half of his money line price.

463
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,159
Speaker 6: I'm using the best line on the inside the distance

464
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 6: compared to the worst line on his mind line.

465
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:18,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's still inside the distance like sixty percent of

466
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 4: the time. Right If he wins, that should probably be

467
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 4: closer to about seventy seventy five percents, So yeah, that

468
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 4: seems short to me as well.

469
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 1: Damasip minus two fifteen right now at Fandel got it

470
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 1: in half? All right, gents, That'll do it Thanks to

471
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 1: Billy Ward Shawn Serrillo. You can find both of them

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00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. Individually. They will have plays,

473
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 1: the plays from this podcast, anything else that they might add.

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00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 3: Keep an eye out in the Action Network app, free

475
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 3: to download. Award winning app. Highly encourage you to check

476
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 3: it out.

477
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 1: That'll do It for the UFC Vegas betting preview on

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00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast presented by Fandel.

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00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 3: You can find more from these guys than I said.

480
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 3: Also one more plug from Billy.

481
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 1: Check out the line rankings write up for UFC Vegas.

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00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 1: Great stuff overvalued viterers, to avoid undervalued viterers that you

483
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 1: want to bet now, good stuff from Billy.

484
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 3: Best of luck with your picks this weekend.

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00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 1: Everybody will see you next time on the Action Network podcast.

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00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

487
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler