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Speaker 1: It's time now for our Wall Street Week daily segment.

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Speaker 1: The host of Wall Street Week, David Weston, joins us

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Speaker 1: as he does every day at this time, and David,

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Speaker 1: everyone still is talking about the macro environment.

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Speaker 2: Everybody wants to know where the economy is going.

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Speaker 3: Indeed, and we got to sit down today with Tom Barreck.

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Speaker 3: We didn't talk to him in a while, actually, founder

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Speaker 3: of Connolly Capitol, because you remember he was with Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump as an advisor of the White House. Then he

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Speaker 3: was indicted and he was ultimately acquitted on nine counts actually,

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Speaker 3: and now he's back to investing. So one of the

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Speaker 3: things we ask him about is actually where we are

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Speaker 3: the economy from an investor's point of view, and particularly

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Speaker 3: given the dramatic change of monetary policy, where we are headed.

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Speaker 4: We went from zero to five in eleven months. That's

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Speaker 4: that's a harsh reality on a system that had gigantic

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Speaker 4: stimulus from both President Trump and President Biden after COVID

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Speaker 4: quantitative easing, a forty to fifty billion a month, buying

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Speaker 4: back mortgage secure. It is so much liquidity in the system.

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Speaker 4: It was mind boggling and changing that which was always

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Speaker 4: looked at raising rates in the manufacturing sector. So you

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Speaker 4: can slow inflation by raising rates pretty quickly in the

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Speaker 4: manufacturing sector. You can't do it so quickly in the

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Speaker 4: service sector. And that's what I think we're finding, is

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Speaker 4: this lag of so much liquidity in the system along

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Speaker 4: with some negative supply chain shocks. So China, we didn't

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Speaker 4: anticipate the time this was going on that we were

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Speaker 4: going to engage in a new Cold War with China,

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Speaker 4: which I also think is a gigantic issue that we

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Speaker 4: need to focus on in maybe a different way. The

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Speaker 4: Ukraine War with Russia, the imperiling effect that it has

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Speaker 4: on Europe, that it has on supply chains everywhere, even

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Speaker 4: in food and agriculture, we didn't anticipate either. So when

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Speaker 4: you look across the realm and you say, what else

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Speaker 4: is happening, everything has stopped, globalization has slowed, the blockchains

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Speaker 4: are much more complicated. Immigration now is a gigantic issue.

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Speaker 4: You look at what's happening in Europe, you look at

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Speaker 4: what's happening with US, but e e. Everybody has negative

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Speaker 4: population growth. I mean, we're very close to having negative

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Speaker 4: population growth. So when you look and say, hah, what

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Speaker 4: is gonna grow? How do we grow what I I

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Speaker 4: I I. If they really want inflation to be at

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Speaker 4: two percent, the dilemma is they need to bump interest rates,

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Speaker 4: but nobody has the the stomach to do that, thinking

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Speaker 4: that we're gonna push ourselves into a very hard landing.

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Speaker 4: And what's the consequence of that when central banks across

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Speaker 4: the world are out of bullets. When I look at

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Speaker 4: investible the invisible universe, the old rule of sixty forty

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Speaker 4: and stocks and bonds doesn't apply anymore. Real estate is

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Speaker 4: a store of value, is an interesting place to be

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Speaker 4: on a reasonably levered basis. But interest rates and availability

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Speaker 4: of liquidity is why private credit is such a hot

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Speaker 4: button right now. Everybody's running to private credit because there's

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Speaker 4: no normal credit in the marketplace. So I think you

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Speaker 4: get a very slow growth and continued inflation for longer

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Speaker 4: than anybody thinks. So we're back in kind of a

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Speaker 4: seventies mode. You match that with the decoupling of what

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Speaker 4: we're doing with offshoring to friend shoring. The mentality of

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Speaker 4: everybody becoming more insular and focused is I don't see,

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Speaker 4: for just as a normal business person looking at these

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Speaker 4: fabrics around the world, a crash. I just see a

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Speaker 4: strain and difficulty have identifying where will extraordinary returns come from?

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Speaker 4: What effect our digital currency is going to have on

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Speaker 4: the financial system every place?

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Speaker 3: How much difference does it make who is sitting in

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Speaker 3: the White House? I mean, as we look right now

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, we don't know, but it looks like

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Speaker 3: it's quite possible it will be a choice between President

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Speaker 3: Biden and President Trump. You said President Trump's your friend.

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Speaker 3: You did advise him, but as I understanding, you don't

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Speaker 3: necessarily want to endorse anybody. Compare and contrast those two

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Speaker 3: approaches to the economy. Does it make a difference to

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Speaker 3: you as an investor?

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Speaker 4: I mean, this may say like a bizarre answer, but

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Speaker 4: of course it makes the difference who the leader is.

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Speaker 4: I think both of them, by the way, have the

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Speaker 4: most difficult job in the world. And President Biden has

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Speaker 4: a class. He takes the brunt of whatever happens that's bad,

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Speaker 4: he's going to carry. President Trump did a fantastic job.

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Speaker 4: He's his own worst enemy sometimes in his vociferousness, but

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Speaker 4: that's his political angle. You have four hundred and thirty

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Speaker 4: five representatives who are making decisions and are super complicated.

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Speaker 4: Arena in which nobody has a GPS. The Central Bank

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Speaker 4: is supposed to be independent from politics. We've kind of

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Speaker 4: lost that a bit, right because price stability is not

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Speaker 4: the only thing they're worried about. So to me, we'll

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Speaker 4: get through whoever the president is if we change, if

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Speaker 4: we if all of us change our attitude and said,

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Speaker 4: what we're going to do is, we're going to support

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Speaker 4: the president of whoever the president of the United States

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Speaker 4: is great, We're going to vote with our feet, we're

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Speaker 4: going to argue, we're going to have political dialogue or

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Speaker 4: we're going to do it in a calm, supportive way

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Speaker 4: to the rest of the world. And we're going to

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Speaker 4: be the leader of the world. And whoever that man

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Speaker 4: or woman is as president is going to be our leader.

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Speaker 4: And the fighting these political parties, Congress and the Senate,

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Speaker 4: the deep state just gets stronger. So from my limited perspective,

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Speaker 4: it's not really by the time somebody becomes president of

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Speaker 4: the United States, that person is given a mantle and

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Speaker 4: a sword that we should follow. The deep state underneath

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Speaker 4: is as it feels weakness as we continue to attack

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Speaker 4: after an election. It only hurts us because that bureauquis

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Speaker 4: the bureaucracy is rightly saying we have to protect ourselves

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Speaker 4: because all these political people are crazy, so that bureaucracy

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Speaker 4: becomes bigger and bigger and bigger.

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Speaker 3: That was part of my conversation with Tom Barrett Colony

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Speaker 3: Capital found and I went on to ask him would

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Speaker 3: he advise President Trump if President Trump asked him to

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Speaker 3: do that in his campaign? And he fled out and

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Speaker 3: said no, simply no. And he said it because now

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Speaker 3: he's had the experience. It's just too risky for somebody

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Speaker 3: in business to get that involved with the president and states.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and really just to get involved in politics overall.

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Speaker 1: And obviously there is a great backstory just in terms

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Speaker 1: of his sort of I guess temporary departure from Colony

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Speaker 1: capitally primarily because of his involvement in politics, and it

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Speaker 1: made a lot of clients uncomfortable.

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Speaker 3: And he says that that's part of what happened with

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Speaker 3: Coliny Capital.

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Speaker 2: He had to leave it.

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Speaker 3: It took the eyes off the wall, and it really

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Speaker 3: fell apart when he came back. And now it's been merged,

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Speaker 3: of course, but but you know, he really is very

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Speaker 3: supportive of President Biden, perhaps surprisingly so doesn't want to

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Speaker 3: get involved anymore. At the same time, we also talked

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Speaker 3: to a fair amount about investing in the Gulf, which

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Speaker 3: is what he got in trouble with with the criminal

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Speaker 3: authorities based involved in that very much.

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Speaker 2: So he's gone right back to where he was.

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Speaker 3: He had two years off and it was quite an

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Speaker 3: experience that he learned from what he thinks. He's that extually.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you'd appreciate that he said it was difficult

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Speaker 3: for him, but he had the resources to defend himself.

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Speaker 3: He worries about all the people in the criminal justices

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Speaker 3: who do.

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Speaker 2: Not know he certainly has the resources. A great conversation there, David.

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Speaker 2: What else do you have coming up this week?

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Speaker 3: We're going to have Larry Summer's back, as we got

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Speaker 3: jobs numbers coming out tomorrow. We're always going to look

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Speaker 3: at that in light of what we saw in the

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Speaker 3: minutes and some of the concerns about higher rates here.

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Speaker 3: So Larry back to tell us what's going on with that,

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Speaker 3: also to talk about a firmative action, which he hears

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Speaker 3: about a.

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Speaker 2: Lot, as of course, the former president, the former head of.

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Speaker 3: Harvard exactly right, exactly right, and he's.

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Speaker 2: About some interesting perspective. I would think.

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Speaker 3: Yes, he does, and he really thinks it's a matter

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Speaker 3: of mobility, as you might think that we've really reduced mobilities.

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Speaker 3: We're going to Larry Summers as well as more on

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Speaker 3: Tom Barrett, and also I have a credit expert tell

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Speaker 3: us about what's going on in credit. So that's all

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Speaker 3: coming up tomorrow night on Wall Street Week at six

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Speaker 3: pm Eastern time.

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Speaker 1: Remain all right, be sure to check out Oh Pernama Puri,

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Speaker 1: I have great guest there. I'll be sure to check

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Speaker 1: out to Wall Street Week Friday at six pm