WEBVTT - Michael Tracey - Is Ukraine a Massive Blunder? 0:00:11.657 --> 0:00:14.937 You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 0:00:14.937 --> 0:00:17.977 you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 0:00:17.977 --> 0:00:21.297 wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, welcome to another 0:00:21.337 --> 0:00:25.257 episode of The Buck Sexton Show. I have Michael Tracy 0:00:25.337 --> 0:00:28.897 with me now. He is a journalist with really interesting 0:00:28.897 --> 0:00:31.977 opinions on foreign policy, a perspective you're gonna want to hear, 0:00:32.737 --> 0:00:36.737 specifically on Ukraine. And he also has a great substack, 0:00:37.337 --> 0:00:40.337 Michael Tracy substack. O check it out. You can follow 0:00:40.417 --> 0:00:45.617 him on Twitter. Mister Tracy, coming to us Live alf Deutschland. 0:00:45.897 --> 0:00:48.257 So I know you're over in Germany right now. Let 0:00:48.297 --> 0:00:51.417 me let me start there. Actually, what's the feeling in 0:00:51.497 --> 0:00:59.537 Germany about the largest war in Europe in eighty years? Yeah? Well, 0:00:59.777 --> 0:01:03.697 first off, greetings, I would do a German greeting, but 0:01:03.897 --> 0:01:08.537 I'm just so pathetic at even adopting like basics of 0:01:08.697 --> 0:01:12.857 the linguistic context that I was supposed to be in. 0:01:13.737 --> 0:01:16.577 And in part because you know, coming to this conference 0:01:16.737 --> 0:01:19.497 with this was the Munich Security Conference that just concluded 0:01:19.657 --> 0:01:23.257 in here in Munich where I am now, and like 0:01:23.377 --> 0:01:25.497 so it's all these people flying in from all over 0:01:25.577 --> 0:01:28.057 the place, so there's not really an expectation that you 0:01:28.137 --> 0:01:30.617 have to acclimate it all to the local customs. So 0:01:30.817 --> 0:01:34.017 nobody really expects that you're going to speak German, and 0:01:34.057 --> 0:01:37.857 they probably wouldn't anyway, frankly, but it was even less 0:01:37.857 --> 0:01:41.097 of a burden to do so this time for this trip, 0:01:42.017 --> 0:01:44.057 which is kind of embarrassing because now I feel like 0:01:44.097 --> 0:01:46.417 an arrogant American. When we have more time, I'll tell 0:01:46.457 --> 0:01:49.177 you when I went to a Swedish counter terrorism conference 0:01:49.177 --> 0:01:53.377 and ended up partying late night at a nightclub with Danish, 0:01:53.417 --> 0:01:56.897 Swedish and I think Finnish federal police. So you know, 0:01:57.057 --> 0:02:00.457 fun things could happen in that part of the world. Okay, 0:02:00.497 --> 0:02:02.497 so how do they feel or what's the sort of 0:02:02.537 --> 0:02:05.177 tenor or what's the just general sense that you can 0:02:05.217 --> 0:02:06.897 pick up from the conference. Well, first of all, I 0:02:06.937 --> 0:02:12.057 should disclose that the whole system that this conference had 0:02:12.097 --> 0:02:16.777 set up for press was quite peculiar, and you'd almost 0:02:16.817 --> 0:02:20.377 get a sneaking suspicion that they didn't really particularly want 0:02:20.417 --> 0:02:23.097 the press to have full access to the conference that 0:02:23.177 --> 0:02:26.937 they could make inferences about what the tenor was. So 0:02:27.857 --> 0:02:29.457 just let me explain it to you real quick, because 0:02:29.497 --> 0:02:31.977 this is amazing and no journalists who I spoke to 0:02:32.017 --> 0:02:36.097 at this conference had ever seen or experience anything like 0:02:36.137 --> 0:02:40.057 it or even heard of it. So as best I 0:02:40.097 --> 0:02:42.897 can tell, it's like an unprecedented thing, at least for 0:02:42.897 --> 0:02:47.497 this particular conference, and maybe just you know, conferences of 0:02:47.537 --> 0:02:49.497 this sort writ large, with this being you know, a 0:02:49.737 --> 0:02:53.457 pre him and security conference for the you know, basically, 0:02:53.497 --> 0:02:55.977 you know, the rules based international order. So you have 0:02:56.017 --> 0:02:58.137 to sign up ahead of time to get a press credential, 0:02:58.217 --> 0:03:02.657 which is standard. But once you arrive and our issue 0:03:02.697 --> 0:03:06.257 the press credential, you can't just then waltz in to 0:03:06.337 --> 0:03:09.097 the venue as you might anticipate, right. You have to 0:03:09.137 --> 0:03:15.857 go to a press sort of monitor or a selection 0:03:15.897 --> 0:03:18.457 of staff who have this booth or this room setup, 0:03:19.057 --> 0:03:20.977 and in order to get into the main venue, which 0:03:21.017 --> 0:03:23.697 is a hotel right in the center of the old 0:03:23.697 --> 0:03:27.297 city of Munich. In order to get into the hotel, 0:03:27.817 --> 0:03:32.497 you then you have to declare a specific purpose or 0:03:32.537 --> 0:03:35.857 a specific destination or a specific task for why you're 0:03:35.977 --> 0:03:39.497 entering the hotel number one and then number two. You 0:03:39.577 --> 0:03:42.577 also have to be escorted the entire time. They actually 0:03:42.617 --> 0:03:45.737 call it an escort system, that you're in the hotel 0:03:45.817 --> 0:03:48.897 by one of these like twenty year old German guys 0:03:49.257 --> 0:03:54.257 who they have lined up ready to accompany journalists as 0:03:54.297 --> 0:03:58.537 like a chaperone or a babysitter, and you know, you 0:03:58.537 --> 0:04:00.897 could try to lose them. I've heard of instances where 0:04:00.977 --> 0:04:03.177 like journalists where it's able to sneak away and like 0:04:04.017 --> 0:04:06.177 you know, hide in the bathroom or something to have 0:04:06.217 --> 0:04:08.457 a bit of free access. But you know, they were 0:04:08.497 --> 0:04:13.897 pretty you know, uh insistence on making sure that you 0:04:14.017 --> 0:04:18.377 never left their site, and it was very odd. Um, 0:04:18.737 --> 0:04:24.937 definitely not the embodiment of press freedom that you would 0:04:24.977 --> 0:04:27.857 expect based on the rhetoric of these people, where they're 0:04:27.857 --> 0:04:33.137 always talking about how we have to stand up for 0:04:33.297 --> 0:04:37.777 liberal values and defend the rules based in international order 0:04:37.817 --> 0:04:42.017 because we cherish principles like you know, freedom of the press, 0:04:42.057 --> 0:04:45.137 whereas these authoritarian countries they cracked down the press, which 0:04:45.377 --> 0:04:49.017 you know is true in certain respects, but that tends 0:04:49.057 --> 0:04:53.097 to kind of obscure how you know, Also the high 0:04:53.097 --> 0:04:58.617 minded liberal order countries or entities can engage in a 0:04:58.657 --> 0:05:02.577 bit of chicanery themselves in that respect. Um, but that 0:05:02.657 --> 0:05:05.337 just a little bit of a sort of ephemera of 0:05:05.417 --> 0:05:11.617 people are curious. So how giants as how freaked out 0:05:11.617 --> 0:05:13.817 of the Germans about the war in Ukraine right now, 0:05:13.937 --> 0:05:16.457 or rather, what's the opinion of the Germans about the 0:05:16.457 --> 0:05:24.617 war in Ukraine. Well, so there is a new or 0:05:24.737 --> 0:05:29.537 Newish Defense Minister who came into office in January. His 0:05:29.697 --> 0:05:36.257 name is Pistorius and he entered that position right around 0:05:36.257 --> 0:05:40.137 the time when there was that whole hubbub about whether 0:05:40.337 --> 0:05:44.937 Germany would send these leopard tanks to Ukraine. And then 0:05:45.017 --> 0:05:48.697 there had to be a deal struck between the Biden 0:05:48.697 --> 0:05:53.617 administration and German Chancellor Shoals for the US to at 0:05:53.697 --> 0:05:58.337 least pledge in theory to send m one Abram's battle tanks, 0:05:58.337 --> 0:06:01.297 whereas in the meantime so as to enable in the 0:06:01.297 --> 0:06:07.137 meantime Germany to send these leopard tanks. And you know, 0:06:07.217 --> 0:06:09.817 just going based on the rhetoric of the of the 0:06:10.137 --> 0:06:12.817 new Defense minister and also the Foreign Minister, which is 0:06:13.177 --> 0:06:20.457 a woman who's from the Green Party Babback, they're getting 0:06:21.377 --> 0:06:25.457 almost very conspicuously strident in their rhetoric because you would expect, 0:06:26.977 --> 0:06:32.417 in ordinary circumstances Germany to be among the more resistant 0:06:32.537 --> 0:06:36.377 countries in one of these like transatlantic coalitions, so it 0:06:36.377 --> 0:06:40.137 would be the US, the UK, you know, maybe the 0:06:40.177 --> 0:06:42.457 Baltic States and Poland and so forth, at least in 0:06:42.497 --> 0:06:47.097 the context of Ukraine being most strident and most aggressive 0:06:47.177 --> 0:06:50.497 in pushing certain measures that they would like to take 0:06:50.537 --> 0:06:54.697 in terms of the conflict with Russia, whereas Germany and 0:06:54.937 --> 0:06:58.097 you know, to some extent France would be more wary, 0:06:58.537 --> 0:07:01.257 right given for a variety of historical reasons. Also, you know, 0:07:01.297 --> 0:07:04.497 Italy and so forth would be in that category. But 0:07:04.657 --> 0:07:07.417 what's notable now, and this is sort of a break 0:07:07.417 --> 0:07:09.457 with precedent or a break with what have been the 0:07:09.497 --> 0:07:13.377 more convention expectation, is the rhetoric is hardening even with 0:07:13.457 --> 0:07:18.857 the German officials like Pistorius, the Defense Minister gave it 0:07:19.417 --> 0:07:21.537 speech or declared at one of his appearances at this 0:07:21.577 --> 0:07:26.497 conference that Ukraine must win. He gave like a maximalist 0:07:26.617 --> 0:07:29.697 declaration as to what must happen militarily in the war 0:07:29.977 --> 0:07:34.297 for victory to be achieved, which is beyond the kind 0:07:34.337 --> 0:07:37.537 of declarations that you would have gotten even maybe just 0:07:37.577 --> 0:07:43.217 six months ago from the German government. And in terms 0:07:43.297 --> 0:07:47.137 of the woman who's the Foreign minister, Babback, she's been 0:07:47.217 --> 0:07:52.337 one of the most hardcore advocates of accelerating the kind 0:07:52.337 --> 0:07:55.337 of interventionist policy in Ukraine from the outset, which is 0:07:55.337 --> 0:07:59.097 ironic because she's a member of the ruling coalition as 0:07:59.137 --> 0:08:03.617 a Green Party member. So the Green Party is one 0:08:03.857 --> 0:08:07.137 faction within the ruling coalition of Schulz Right, and so 0:08:07.337 --> 0:08:10.897 they have Green Party members that get appointed to positions 0:08:10.937 --> 0:08:15.697 of state such as Foreign Minister. And she's been agitating 0:08:15.737 --> 0:08:19.457 for months and months and months for Shoals to be 0:08:19.777 --> 0:08:24.537 more assertive and more you know, antagonistic toward Russia essentially. 0:08:24.817 --> 0:08:26.897 And why is that ironic? Well, first of all, the 0:08:26.897 --> 0:08:30.177 Green Party is kind of what have what most people 0:08:30.177 --> 0:08:33.697 probably would have thought for a year ago, the Dovish 0:08:33.817 --> 0:08:37.537 Party right, like the peace nick crunchy party, where you 0:08:37.577 --> 0:08:40.217 know they'd rather like strum an acoustic guitar and sing 0:08:40.257 --> 0:08:45.977 Kumbaya than do anything even related whatsoever to the military. Um. 0:08:46.017 --> 0:08:49.897 But they're among the most strident now. And why think 0:08:49.937 --> 0:08:51.817 that is? And if you look at their wait, why 0:08:51.897 --> 0:08:56.817 is it's interesting? Yeah? Um? Why is it? Yeah? It's 0:08:56.817 --> 0:08:58.977 a good question. And it also relates to why the 0:08:58.977 --> 0:09:01.857 Democratic Party is so unified. That was my next question. 0:09:01.937 --> 0:09:05.177 There's a more dissension and among the Republicans even though 0:09:05.177 --> 0:09:08.377 they're like there's definitely a majority support for the policy, 0:09:08.457 --> 0:09:12.177 but there's a little bit more dissension, right, Yeah, because 0:09:12.217 --> 0:09:16.857 I think it has to do with this with the 0:09:16.897 --> 0:09:21.377 ideological contours of the war that have been imparted onto it. 0:09:22.017 --> 0:09:25.097 Or they look at the conflict, meaning just the generic 0:09:25.777 --> 0:09:30.777 liberal kind of mainline opinion, especially within elite circles. They 0:09:30.817 --> 0:09:34.977 look at the conflict in Ukraine and they heighten like 0:09:35.057 --> 0:09:37.937 the cosmic significance of it to the point where they're 0:09:37.977 --> 0:09:42.937 imbuing it with these dimensions of some sort of you know, 0:09:44.257 --> 0:09:53.617 apocalyptic battle between authoritarianism and democracy, or fascism and liberalism, 0:09:53.777 --> 0:09:58.457 or one of these like grand ideological crusades. Right. That's 0:09:58.497 --> 0:10:01.337 why they're always invoking World War Two. That's why World 0:10:01.377 --> 0:10:04.537 War two, now more than at any point that I've 0:10:04.537 --> 0:10:09.017 been alive anyway, is the most potent analogy and kind 0:10:09.057 --> 0:10:14.617 of conferring moral salience. Yeah. This is a good versus 0:10:14.657 --> 0:10:16.977 evil conflict, is the basics of it. This is this 0:10:17.097 --> 0:10:19.977 is the the good guy, the bad guy, the cowboy 0:10:19.977 --> 0:10:21.697 and the white hat, the cowboy and the black hat. 0:10:21.737 --> 0:10:25.857 Putin is Hitler, Right, That's that's how this is lined up. Yeah, 0:10:25.897 --> 0:10:30.657 And they also then can relate that to their domestic 0:10:30.777 --> 0:10:35.177 political foes, right, because you know in the US, I 0:10:35.177 --> 0:10:38.417 don't have to tell you it's not just a it's 0:10:38.457 --> 0:10:44.657 not just the determination to stop Putin that's informing the 0:10:44.657 --> 0:10:47.617 fury with which a lot of Democrats approaches this ue. 0:10:47.657 --> 0:10:50.457 It's that it also they also view it as connecting 0:10:50.537 --> 0:10:57.297 or you know, intersecting with their domestic struggle against insurrectionists 0:10:57.617 --> 0:11:02.697 and fascists and you know, white nationalists and so forth, 0:11:02.737 --> 0:11:07.017 because Trump was seen as this colluder of Putin's right, 0:11:07.057 --> 0:11:12.577 and so Putin was depicted starting in twenty and sixteen. Really, 0:11:12.577 --> 0:11:15.897 and Hillary Clinton, believe it or not, initiated this, or 0:11:15.897 --> 0:11:17.377 I don't know why you wouldn't believe it. I'm sure 0:11:17.377 --> 0:11:19.937 you would. She sort of initiated this conception of Putin 0:11:20.377 --> 0:11:22.377 that was sort of new circle of twenty and sixteen 0:11:22.417 --> 0:11:26.097 that he wasn't just this you know, revanchist Russian former 0:11:26.257 --> 0:11:28.777 KGB agent who we had to be suspicious of, right 0:11:28.777 --> 0:11:33.737 he was also this like exporter of right wing authoritarianism 0:11:34.257 --> 0:11:40.857 and trying to undermine liberal democracy by subverting the rules 0:11:40.897 --> 0:11:46.017 based international order to demodeological interventions. To democrats, there is 0:11:46.057 --> 0:11:50.097 a Putin Trump axis of evil, if you will, I 0:11:50.097 --> 0:11:52.417 mean this is what this is what they've created over 0:11:52.457 --> 0:11:55.497 the years of the Trump over the Trump presidency, and 0:11:55.537 --> 0:11:57.657 now it's extended. And I do remember with some of 0:11:57.657 --> 0:12:01.617 the not just hyperbole, but the outright fabrications from the 0:12:01.657 --> 0:12:05.617 Trump from the Trump era about Russia and putin specifically, 0:12:06.057 --> 0:12:08.297 some people, and I believe you were among them, if 0:12:08.297 --> 0:12:11.337 I remember from your Twitter, were learning, Hey, maybe just 0:12:11.457 --> 0:12:17.577 creating Russia as this almost cartoonishly evil country that is 0:12:17.657 --> 0:12:21.577 trying to destroy America from within and with fate, whether 0:12:21.577 --> 0:12:23.657 it's be a Facebook or democracy. Maybe this will have 0:12:23.697 --> 0:12:26.377 long term foreign policy implications. I think we're actually already 0:12:26.377 --> 0:12:28.897 seeing some of those foreign policy implications right now, and 0:12:29.297 --> 0:12:31.097 I want to return to that in a second. And 0:12:31.177 --> 0:12:34.737 also the notion of this doesn't stop till Russia loses 0:12:34.977 --> 0:12:37.577 what does that actually look like? But I want to 0:12:37.577 --> 0:12:39.577 take a moment for our sponsor here, because if you're 0:12:39.577 --> 0:12:42.697 a Team Mobile subscriber, they're investigating a data breach that 0:12:42.817 --> 0:12:46.177 expose a sensitive personal information of thirty seven million customers 0:12:46.457 --> 0:12:48.937 right after the New year. 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I feel like we're being 0:13:55.457 --> 0:13:58.297 told a lot of contrary because because I really want 0:13:58.337 --> 0:14:02.457 to drill down into the what the strategy is that 0:14:02.537 --> 0:14:04.857 kin make a quick Can I make a quick point 0:14:04.857 --> 0:14:07.017 about the ideological dimensions that I wanted to make, and 0:14:07.057 --> 0:14:08.977 then we'll move on to the other stuff before I forget. 0:14:09.297 --> 0:14:12.537 I think it's like setting. Sorry to interrupt, but in 0:14:12.617 --> 0:14:15.537 terms of forward, go for it. What do you got? 0:14:16.977 --> 0:14:19.497 Usually I'm just free flowing nonsense out of my mouth 0:14:19.497 --> 0:14:21.857 and people have to tell me to study every so often. Therese, 0:14:21.897 --> 0:14:24.497 I'll just ramble for hours on in terms of the 0:14:24.497 --> 0:14:28.057 ideological dimension right, I think the whole the reason why 0:14:28.257 --> 0:14:31.217 liberals are and even leftists some degree like you would 0:14:31.217 --> 0:14:33.457 associate with a Green Party, have been so enlivened by 0:14:33.497 --> 0:14:38.297 this conflict is because it fits so perfectly into their 0:14:38.377 --> 0:14:43.657 pre existing sort of ideological warfare that they were already 0:14:43.657 --> 0:14:46.497 waging even if there had been no invasion last February. Right, 0:14:46.977 --> 0:14:49.137 But that's not the full story, right, That just one 0:14:49.577 --> 0:14:52.777 component as to why the consensus around this issue is 0:14:52.817 --> 0:14:59.177 so intractable. You also have other factions of ideological consensus 0:14:59.377 --> 0:15:02.857 as represented for example by Poland or the government of Poland, 0:15:02.857 --> 0:15:06.217 where you have a socially conservative party in power, the 0:15:06.297 --> 0:15:10.217 Law and Justice Party, rather rather conservative country overall all, 0:15:10.297 --> 0:15:13.737 at least relative to the rest of Europe, and they're 0:15:13.777 --> 0:15:17.497 among the most vehement, if not the most vehement, in 0:15:17.617 --> 0:15:21.297 terms of supporting the more and more aggressive measures in 0:15:21.497 --> 0:15:26.217 Ukraine and being really beating the drum harder and harder. 0:15:26.257 --> 0:15:28.577 I mean, that's where Biden is right now, right where 0:15:28.577 --> 0:15:31.457 he just gave his speech. So that that I think 0:15:31.497 --> 0:15:35.497 that fervor that Poland exhibits kind of comes from a 0:15:35.497 --> 0:15:38.337 different ideological angle. But again, the reason why the consensus 0:15:38.337 --> 0:15:41.537 is so potent is because you have like different interlocking 0:15:41.737 --> 0:15:48.097 ideological schools of thought that can become equally sort of 0:15:48.977 --> 0:15:53.177 vigorous in their support for this particular cause. So you 0:15:53.177 --> 0:15:55.457 asked me just to answer quickly, what is like the 0:15:55.497 --> 0:15:59.577 tenor at this security conference, because obviously I was able 0:15:59.577 --> 0:16:02.617 to do stuff and talk to people and whatever, notwithstanding 0:16:02.617 --> 0:16:07.177 the ridiculous press restrictions. I would just summarize it as 0:16:09.217 --> 0:16:14.417 it's like an ideology overload, Like it's people overdosing on 0:16:14.777 --> 0:16:18.537 these ideological intoxicants that they've been hopped up on for 0:16:18.577 --> 0:16:21.897 a year from whatever particular direction where to the point 0:16:21.897 --> 0:16:24.657 where they almost can't be reasoned with in many respects, 0:16:25.977 --> 0:16:30.017 and they're just full steam ahead toward a particular end 0:16:30.057 --> 0:16:32.497 goal that they can't quite articulate. I have theories as 0:16:32.497 --> 0:16:34.217 to what the end goal actually is. Maybe we'll get 0:16:34.257 --> 0:16:37.537 to it. But yeah, that's just basically how I would 0:16:37.537 --> 0:16:45.377 answer it. It's just this really strong, to say, to 0:16:45.377 --> 0:16:49.177 put it mildly, fervor that has overtaken this like Western 0:16:49.377 --> 0:16:53.617 so called security establishments, such that they're really radicalizing rapidly 0:16:53.937 --> 0:16:56.377 in a whole variety of areas, even once that are 0:16:56.377 --> 0:17:01.897 just tangentially related to Ukraine, like they essentially institutionally endorsed 0:17:01.897 --> 0:17:05.097 regime change in Iran as well at this conference. And 0:17:05.137 --> 0:17:08.057 then there's this whole China issue that is kind of 0:17:08.857 --> 0:17:12.937 trending in the same direction. So it's um, yeah, no, no, 0:17:12.977 --> 0:17:17.017 it's so I want you to tackle this for me. 0:17:19.217 --> 0:17:21.897 You have. On the one hand, in Wall Street Journal 0:17:21.897 --> 0:17:26.457 recently editorial said, not only should we give them, meaning Ukraine, 0:17:26.897 --> 0:17:29.777 another ninety billion or whatever whatever they need, we should 0:17:29.777 --> 0:17:32.577 just send the F sixteens now because why wait, because 0:17:32.617 --> 0:17:37.217 we're just this whole incremental game, what's the point. And 0:17:38.017 --> 0:17:41.057 on the one hand, you have them saying effectively this 0:17:41.137 --> 0:17:45.537 national security apparatus, that Western national security apparatus that the 0:17:45.617 --> 0:17:48.537 US is leading, and obviously NATO's as the other big 0:17:48.537 --> 0:17:52.097 component of it, saying or making it seem at least 0:17:52.097 --> 0:17:55.657 like there's really no real risk here of anything getting 0:17:55.937 --> 0:17:58.417 going really bad for US. And yet on the other 0:17:58.497 --> 0:18:01.937 side you have Zelenski saying, if China is support if 0:18:02.017 --> 0:18:05.777 China does for Russia what we are doing for Ukraine, 0:18:05.977 --> 0:18:08.177 and even a fraction of what we're doing for Ukraine, 0:18:08.617 --> 0:18:13.457 Zelenski said, that will start World War three. Well, how 0:18:13.577 --> 0:18:16.337 is one in an escalation to World War three and 0:18:16.377 --> 0:18:18.897 the other has no risk of anything bad happening. That's 0:18:18.897 --> 0:18:21.857 what That's what I'm wondering. How they can make sense 0:18:21.857 --> 0:18:26.377 of this for me? Right, I don't know exactly what 0:18:26.457 --> 0:18:30.177 Zelenski meant by that, because he could have meant it 0:18:30.217 --> 0:18:35.737 in a sort of more superficial sense, and that if 0:18:35.977 --> 0:18:39.337 China did become a bonified co belligerent in the sense 0:18:39.377 --> 0:18:42.417 that it was furnishing Russia with armaments that it would 0:18:42.417 --> 0:18:44.857 be using Ukraine, it would sort of just expand the 0:18:44.897 --> 0:18:48.577 geographical remit of the conflict to where you could say 0:18:48.617 --> 0:18:51.057 it's now a global conflict. Is that what he meant 0:18:51.057 --> 0:18:53.737 by World War three? Or does he say that? Or 0:18:53.817 --> 0:18:55.377 is he suggesting if there's gonna be some like you know, 0:18:55.417 --> 0:18:58.297 Pacific Theater opened up in the war, and it's going 0:18:58.377 --> 0:19:02.217 to be something more recognizable as But even either one 0:19:02.217 --> 0:19:08.297 of those would be right. It's escalatory, that's the point. Yeah, exactly, exactly. Well, 0:19:08.297 --> 0:19:10.577 I mean, I think there's a conventional wisdom now that's 0:19:10.617 --> 0:19:15.497 congealed around the idea of escalation or whether there's risk 0:19:16.217 --> 0:19:19.777 in kind of ramping up these weapons provisions and going 0:19:19.817 --> 0:19:22.377 further and further with the tactics employers. Remember, it's not 0:19:22.417 --> 0:19:25.017 just the weapons. People don't I think, fully appreciate this 0:19:25.137 --> 0:19:27.857 or appreciate this enough. It's such that the US is 0:19:28.897 --> 0:19:33.457 dispatching this endless supply of weaponry in an unprecedented like 0:19:33.537 --> 0:19:37.777 you know, arms funneling operation that as soon as March 0:19:37.817 --> 0:19:41.057 of last year dwarfed the most recent precedent, which had 0:19:41.057 --> 0:19:45.057 been under Terry Truman in terms of unarmed supply operation 0:19:45.217 --> 0:19:49.177 in Europe. Now it's like, I guess, you know, it 0:19:49.177 --> 0:19:51.617 just has no precedent at all. Really, that we can 0:19:51.777 --> 0:19:55.017 reasonably sort of invoke to kind of contextualize what this 0:19:55.097 --> 0:19:58.417 mission is. But it's not just the weapons themselves, it's 0:19:58.457 --> 0:20:02.977 this it's the operational coordination of the warfare itself that 0:20:03.097 --> 0:20:10.337 the US is first and foremost undertaking in Ukraine. Remember 0:20:10.337 --> 0:20:15.617 when Ukraine launched its counter offenses last August and September, 0:20:15.977 --> 0:20:18.777 right where that that were more successful than maybe people thought, 0:20:18.857 --> 0:20:21.697 and they took back a fair amount of land around 0:20:21.737 --> 0:20:27.497 you know, Kharkiev, and then later her song. It was 0:20:27.537 --> 0:20:31.377 reported in the New York Times and elsewhere. Shortly thereafter that, 0:20:32.497 --> 0:20:36.257 the US generals literally were involved in the process of 0:20:36.377 --> 0:20:39.897 drawing up the war plans themselves. Right, So it wasn't 0:20:39.937 --> 0:20:44.857 just we send Ukraine a couple of Javelin missiles and 0:20:44.897 --> 0:20:47.497 hope for the best, you know, and you know, wish 0:20:47.537 --> 0:20:52.497 them good luck in coming up with tactical plans. No, 0:20:52.617 --> 0:20:56.417 the US is intimately evolved in creating and formulating and 0:20:56.457 --> 0:21:00.417 then executing those tactical practical plans because some of the 0:21:00.897 --> 0:21:05.417 systems were giving them also require require US training and 0:21:05.417 --> 0:21:09.097 an active monitoring and assistance. So some of these weapons 0:21:09.457 --> 0:21:11.577 hand someone in ak and say go shoot the enemy. 0:21:11.617 --> 0:21:14.217 That's one thing you give them a Patriot missile battery, 0:21:14.897 --> 0:21:17.697 there has to be US training and US support for 0:21:17.737 --> 0:21:22.497 that to actually function, right, right, I mean one of 0:21:22.497 --> 0:21:26.057 the reasons that the Biden administration had cited as to 0:21:26.137 --> 0:21:28.657 why they were not going to send those Patriot batteries 0:21:28.697 --> 0:21:31.497 that he announced in December. But when they were asked 0:21:31.497 --> 0:21:34.177 about this, meaning when Pentagon officials were asked about this, 0:21:35.217 --> 0:21:37.777 you know, last March or so, would the US entertain 0:21:37.817 --> 0:21:42.297 the idea of sending Patriot batteries to Ukraine, it was 0:21:42.337 --> 0:21:48.857 dismissed as just a nonstarter because to operate those Patriot batteries, 0:21:48.937 --> 0:21:54.737 these Pentagon officials said, would require US forces on the ground, 0:21:54.817 --> 0:21:56.977 and we don't want US forces on the ground. That's 0:21:56.977 --> 0:22:00.177 what Biden says, is the red line that the United 0:22:00.177 --> 0:22:02.177 States is not going to cross policy wise. And then 0:22:02.297 --> 0:22:05.897 sure enough, you know, like nine months later, the Patriot 0:22:05.937 --> 0:22:09.697 batteries are deployed. Now, who knows who's going to be 0:22:10.137 --> 0:22:14.417 rating those. I mean, do I doubt that Ukrainian soldiers 0:22:15.217 --> 0:22:21.417 can garner the knowledge necessary to at least in part 0:22:21.497 --> 0:22:23.857 operate the missiles. No, I don't necessarily doubt that, but 0:22:23.897 --> 0:22:26.017 I don't know for sure. You and I and nobody 0:22:26.057 --> 0:22:29.577 knows what the actual operational ratement will be in the 0:22:29.617 --> 0:22:36.737 management and opera and execution of those well to be 0:22:37.057 --> 0:22:39.177 what they're set up from my previous life and our 0:22:39.177 --> 0:22:41.377 patriots system, someone has to train them, and to your point, 0:22:41.377 --> 0:22:43.017 they could learn how to do it themselves, but there 0:22:43.017 --> 0:22:46.897 has to be active assistance in that phase of getting 0:22:46.897 --> 0:22:49.777 them up to speed so they can operate what is 0:22:49.817 --> 0:22:53.577 a complicated and very expensive weapons system. Is it your perception? 0:22:54.217 --> 0:22:58.457 I feel like the biggest um, the biggest debate right now, 0:22:58.577 --> 0:23:02.737 or maybe maybe the center of the problem is absent 0:23:02.937 --> 0:23:07.777 US troops in Ukraine. I think the perception of the 0:23:07.857 --> 0:23:13.017 national security apparatus is Putin won't do anything to us 0:23:13.177 --> 0:23:17.457 or to escalate unless we actually send in troops. Therefore, 0:23:17.977 --> 0:23:22.017 why not send F sixteens? Abrahamstad like the whole all 0:23:22.057 --> 0:23:24.737 of it, Just go with all of it? Are they right? 0:23:27.897 --> 0:23:30.937 You know? I think that that logic is actually coherent, 0:23:31.097 --> 0:23:35.017 meaning I wouldn't endorse that logic necessarily. But if you 0:23:35.057 --> 0:23:39.377 do believe, say that it is true that Putin will 0:23:39.417 --> 0:23:45.897 not escalate short of some sort of more overt, unambiguous, 0:23:45.897 --> 0:23:50.657 direct US military intervention, then they have a point when 0:23:50.697 --> 0:23:53.017 they're saying it doesn't make a whole lot of sense 0:23:53.137 --> 0:23:59.297 to deploy these different weapons systems so incrementally and haltingly, right, 0:23:59.337 --> 0:24:02.697 because you're saying that that's all under the escalation threshold, 0:24:02.777 --> 0:24:04.817 So why not just do it all at once rather 0:24:04.857 --> 0:24:09.177 than yeah, you know, dither for for months now. I 0:24:09.177 --> 0:24:11.977 don't think that's necessarily an accurate assessment. But if that 0:24:12.097 --> 0:24:15.737 is your assessment, then at least it's internally coherent to 0:24:16.057 --> 0:24:18.897 make that argument. But my question is, do you think 0:24:18.937 --> 0:24:22.977 that's an accurate assessment? Well, I don't think there's really 0:24:23.017 --> 0:24:25.857 a basis to believe it's accurate. Here here's the conventional 0:24:25.857 --> 0:24:28.377 wisdom that seems to have emerged around this question of 0:24:28.497 --> 0:24:30.737 escalation and so called red lines, which I hate because 0:24:30.737 --> 0:24:33.177 it's a cliche, and I guess I just hate all cliches, 0:24:33.217 --> 0:24:36.497 but this one in particular because it like obscures the 0:24:36.497 --> 0:24:39.857 gravity of the subject matter in a lot of ways. 0:24:40.297 --> 0:24:43.457 They think that because there's there, you know, conventional wisdom 0:24:43.497 --> 0:24:46.977 now among people who will always want to escalate anyway, 0:24:47.017 --> 0:24:48.777 So they were going to try to like fashion whatever 0:24:48.857 --> 0:24:51.777 arguments they could to justify that. But those people now 0:24:51.817 --> 0:24:55.897 have like settled on this sort of circumstantial argument, or 0:24:55.937 --> 0:24:58.657 this argument based on what's happened so far in the conflict, 0:24:58.657 --> 0:25:00.457 where they're saying, look, you know, back in the fall, 0:25:01.177 --> 0:25:05.697 there was that period in October where Putin seemed to 0:25:05.897 --> 0:25:11.217 allude to the idea of potentially using the Russian nuclear 0:25:11.257 --> 0:25:13.217 arsenal for some sort of reprisal. He didn't make a 0:25:13.217 --> 0:25:17.417 direct threat, but you know, there's a clear allusion to it. 0:25:17.417 --> 0:25:19.137 It was in actually the speech that he gave him 0:25:19.137 --> 0:25:22.417 September twenty first, when he announced the annexation of those 0:25:22.577 --> 0:25:28.817 four new oblasts, right. And so then you know, Russia 0:25:28.817 --> 0:25:34.017 annexes the Oblasts, they have these so called referenda, which 0:25:34.377 --> 0:25:36.857 I don't think necessarily would hold up to scrutiny if 0:25:36.857 --> 0:25:39.417 you wanted to sort of decipher what it means to 0:25:39.417 --> 0:25:42.137 have a free, fair election. They're under older occupation. That's 0:25:42.177 --> 0:25:44.257 sort of a separate issue. But so then no, Russia 0:25:44.337 --> 0:25:50.297 then formally declares that those four Oblasts are part of Russia, right, 0:25:50.297 --> 0:25:57.177 and they also assert that the Russian nuclear arsenal can 0:25:57.217 --> 0:26:00.697 be used in the event that parts of Russia are 0:26:00.737 --> 0:26:03.377 existensionally threatened. Now you have parts of Russia that are 0:26:03.377 --> 0:26:07.337 in a hot war zone. So theoretically based on what 0:26:07.537 --> 0:26:11.817 is understood to be there nuclear doctrine, although who knows 0:26:11.817 --> 0:26:13.817 what the actual nuclear doctrine is. I mean mean, people 0:26:13.817 --> 0:26:16.097 just kind of pontificate somehow. There are more people in 0:26:16.337 --> 0:26:19.057 the United States, like on CNN who are experts on 0:26:19.097 --> 0:26:22.217 the Russian nuclear doctrine in the American doctrine. I don't 0:26:22.257 --> 0:26:27.177 know how that came about. Yeah, but it is true 0:26:27.217 --> 0:26:29.977 that those territories were incorporating to Russia, and you could 0:26:29.977 --> 0:26:33.977 make like a theoretical argument if you're Russia, that the 0:26:34.097 --> 0:26:38.577 nuclear nuclear use is warranted to defend those oblasts. They 0:26:38.617 --> 0:26:42.417 think that meaning these national security types and whoever would 0:26:42.457 --> 0:26:45.137 be of the sort that would populate like Immuniq security 0:26:45.177 --> 0:26:47.897 conference there. They've convinced themselves that because or as they're 0:26:47.897 --> 0:26:52.817 claiming to be convinced that because Putin's red line was 0:26:52.857 --> 0:26:55.937 crossed in that the United States didn't back off from 0:26:55.937 --> 0:27:01.497 like Zappariga, Oblast and whatever when he annext them and 0:27:01.537 --> 0:27:04.417 made them part of Russia, that that means his whatever 0:27:04.497 --> 0:27:08.177 red lines he suggests that he has, or that might 0:27:08.177 --> 0:27:12.217 even postulated that he has, they're they're not really there, 0:27:12.297 --> 0:27:15.857 and it's just all a bluff and so that gives 0:27:15.937 --> 0:27:18.897 us license. These people say to themselves, just press on 0:27:19.057 --> 0:27:23.057 even more aggressively forward because we know that Putin really 0:27:23.137 --> 0:27:25.297 is all talk. Now, I think that that makes no sense, 0:27:26.177 --> 0:27:34.577 because Putin not doing a nuclear reprisal just because one 0:27:34.697 --> 0:27:37.977 so called red line wasn't crossed doesn't mean he wouldn't 0:27:37.977 --> 0:27:39.937 do it for an additional one. Like one doesn't that 0:27:40.097 --> 0:27:41.977 one thing doesn't lead to the other there in the 0:27:41.977 --> 0:27:44.937 logical construction, it's just like an assumption or a conjecture. 0:27:45.977 --> 0:27:49.137 And second, you don't even know I mean, these people 0:27:49.137 --> 0:27:50.737 don't even know what a red line is. I mean 0:27:50.777 --> 0:27:52.937 they use that term because Obama said it once at 0:27:52.937 --> 0:27:56.257 a press conference in twenty twelve regarding Syria, and then 0:27:56.257 --> 0:28:00.577 it just became this like constantly invoked cliche that really 0:28:00.617 --> 0:28:05.377 has no tangible content to it other than what people 0:28:06.537 --> 0:28:11.417 are speculating might be like the point of no return 0:28:11.497 --> 0:28:15.737 for a certain world in like military and national security 0:28:15.777 --> 0:28:19.417 analysis circles. It is used all the time. And when 0:28:19.457 --> 0:28:22.177 they talk about war gaming, which is another thing, by 0:28:22.217 --> 0:28:27.057 the way, that doesn't I've partaken in war games in 0:28:27.097 --> 0:28:30.057 my past life, I've seen and the problem with war 0:28:30.137 --> 0:28:31.697 games is not a game, and so you have no 0:28:31.737 --> 0:28:34.337 idea how the war is actually going to go, gives you, 0:28:34.377 --> 0:28:38.457 at best a very rough approximation of how conventional force 0:28:38.577 --> 0:28:43.737 on force would react if the following dependent variables are 0:28:43.737 --> 0:28:47.497 all true. That I'll said on even just the redlines issue. 0:28:48.057 --> 0:28:52.177 The notion that there is an axiomatic where that there's 0:28:52.217 --> 0:28:57.377 a dogmatic and immediate response that you would get from 0:28:57.417 --> 0:28:59.977 an action independent of everything everything else going on, I 0:28:59.977 --> 0:29:02.097 think that is it is a problematic way of thinking 0:29:02.137 --> 0:29:04.537 about it, right. I mean they could say, well, redline 0:29:04.537 --> 0:29:07.017 as if someone goes to take the capital city or something. Well, 0:29:07.097 --> 0:29:09.017 I mean certain red lines are so obvious you don't 0:29:09.057 --> 0:29:10.937 need to say them. And others I think would be 0:29:11.017 --> 0:29:15.177 more situational, which brings us back into Ukraine and what 0:29:15.297 --> 0:29:19.617 Putin is willing to do here in order to see 0:29:19.657 --> 0:29:21.537 this thing through, which I think, by the way, is 0:29:21.977 --> 0:29:24.777 he'll see it through with whatever he can, however he can. 0:29:25.777 --> 0:29:28.657 I wanted to ask you go ahead, sorry, I was 0:29:28.657 --> 0:29:30.417 just gonna make a quick a quick point on that, 0:29:30.577 --> 0:29:33.457 and the certainty that these people have meaning like this 0:29:33.857 --> 0:29:37.897 conventional nat SEC community, who I think probably the one 0:29:37.937 --> 0:29:41.177 demographic on Earth that I can most confidently say is 0:29:41.217 --> 0:29:46.017 just full of crap almost twenty four to seven and 0:29:46.217 --> 0:29:50.897 almost universally with so few exceptions that like, they don't 0:29:50.897 --> 0:29:53.017 even really factor into whether you can just declare them 0:29:53.137 --> 0:29:57.337 universally full of crap. One thing that they don't factor 0:29:57.377 --> 0:30:00.017 into this whole newfound certain city that they have about 0:30:00.137 --> 0:30:08.097 Putin's decklessness or how he's really just you know, feinting 0:30:08.257 --> 0:30:11.257 when he suggests that there could be lines, is we 0:30:11.337 --> 0:30:17.297 have plentiful evidence that there have been escalatory tit for 0:30:17.497 --> 0:30:21.937 tat exchanges between the United States and Russia that have 0:30:22.817 --> 0:30:26.177 heightened the intensity of the conflict. Right and here, let's 0:30:26.817 --> 0:30:28.817 just to give one example. And when I say the 0:30:28.897 --> 0:30:33.137 US and Russia, you know, I'm including Ukraine within the 0:30:33.217 --> 0:30:36.777 US side of that dichotomy because Ukraine only exists as 0:30:36.777 --> 0:30:41.617 a state right now because of the sponsorship of US, 0:30:42.617 --> 0:30:46.217 and not even just the military portion of the Ukrainian 0:30:46.257 --> 0:30:50.017 state either the civil state as well, like the USA. 0:30:50.137 --> 0:30:53.057 I d is just paying all the state pensions and 0:30:53.297 --> 0:30:56.657 benefits of state employees in Ukraine. But that's side issue. 0:30:57.457 --> 0:31:02.057 But when Ukraine, remember it did that truck bombing attack 0:31:02.177 --> 0:31:08.297 on the Kirch Bridge in Crimea in October, which was 0:31:08.337 --> 0:31:13.137 odd because or odd the standpoint of it had certain 0:31:13.417 --> 0:31:18.977 kind of classical markers of what we've come to believe 0:31:19.257 --> 0:31:21.497 would constitute a terrorist attack. But of course it wasn't 0:31:21.497 --> 0:31:25.297 called that at all in Western media because that would 0:31:25.697 --> 0:31:30.457 impune Ukraine and can't do that because you know, the 0:31:30.577 --> 0:31:33.617 high principle always is to be a partisan for one 0:31:33.617 --> 0:31:35.897 of the warring parties rather than be you know, truthful 0:31:35.937 --> 0:31:38.737 about stuff. Sends to be the case with warfare, at 0:31:38.817 --> 0:31:43.657 least as I have observed it when that happened, which 0:31:43.697 --> 0:31:52.377 is obviously a fairly adventurous or audacious act on the 0:31:52.497 --> 0:31:57.697 Ukraine Special forces part given the kind of centrality of 0:31:57.777 --> 0:32:00.697 CRIMEA to like what seems to be Putin's sort of 0:32:00.737 --> 0:32:05.857 conception of his sort of historical epoch as leader of Russia, 0:32:05.897 --> 0:32:09.377 and that bridge is one that he personally oversaw the 0:32:09.417 --> 0:32:13.777 construction of and opened it relatively recently. Once that happened, 0:32:14.257 --> 0:32:17.577 Russia did escalate in turn. So that was an escalation 0:32:17.617 --> 0:32:19.177 in the sense that it opened up sort of a 0:32:19.257 --> 0:32:25.657 new sphere of warfare and a new newly audacious sort 0:32:25.657 --> 0:32:29.857 of tactic of warfare. And then Russia did the same 0:32:29.977 --> 0:32:35.217 in that it reciprocally then began what became a months 0:32:35.257 --> 0:32:42.337 long campaign of bombing civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, the electrical 0:32:42.377 --> 0:32:46.977 grids and whatever. It was not even not even ambiguous 0:32:47.017 --> 0:32:50.497 if that was portrayed by Russia as at least in 0:32:50.537 --> 0:32:53.937 part retaliation for the truck bombing on the bridge. Right, 0:32:54.097 --> 0:32:58.537 So when people in these national security cliques say that, oh, 0:32:58.577 --> 0:33:01.457 the red lines are all of bluff, we've you know, 0:33:01.577 --> 0:33:04.697 Putin has belied with his actions, any idea that we 0:33:04.697 --> 0:33:07.457 should be concerned about this in terms of esculatory potential. 0:33:07.977 --> 0:33:10.777 What they I think willfully or I think there or 0:33:11.337 --> 0:33:13.337 even though either they willfully ignore it or they're so 0:33:13.417 --> 0:33:16.497 ideologically intoxicated that they can't bring themselves to even be 0:33:16.497 --> 0:33:20.737 able to perceive it anymore, what they're not mentioning is 0:33:20.777 --> 0:33:24.217 that there is a huge array of evidence that there 0:33:24.337 --> 0:33:31.857 is this kind of center synergetic esculatory dynamic in Ukraine 0:33:32.257 --> 0:33:35.377 where we do we can anticipate that Russia will escalate 0:33:35.897 --> 0:33:39.617 given escalatory behavior that you know us, the US does, 0:33:39.737 --> 0:33:42.777 or that Ukraine does in tandem with the US. So 0:33:42.857 --> 0:33:45.417 that dynamic exists. It's just a point of like how 0:33:45.497 --> 0:33:48.457 high does the escalatory ladder reach to the point where 0:33:48.497 --> 0:33:53.097 it becomes something truly kind of clismics such as nuclear use. 0:33:53.777 --> 0:33:57.497 I want to come back to the very important, I 0:33:57.537 --> 0:34:01.577 would argue central question of is this all from the 0:34:01.697 --> 0:34:05.057 US perspective and what the Bide administration has done to 0:34:05.097 --> 0:34:07.737 this point a massive blunder. But hold that for a second. 0:34:07.737 --> 0:34:09.297 I want to come back to it. I want to 0:34:09.337 --> 0:34:11.737 talk about the Tunnel Towers Foundation for a second. 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All right, mister Michael Tracy, Is this a 0:35:10.417 --> 0:35:14.977 massive blunder in the making the US role in the 0:35:15.097 --> 0:35:18.457 Ukraine Russia War? Or is this something that can drag 0:35:18.537 --> 0:35:21.697 on and it will just be another budget item that 0:35:21.817 --> 0:35:28.257 some people complain about but eventually no real consequences. Well, 0:35:28.257 --> 0:35:33.737 I guess it depends on what the desired outcome is 0:35:33.857 --> 0:35:38.257 or what objective is being pursued. Because given the objective 0:35:38.297 --> 0:35:42.177 that was articulated around when the war started, or at 0:35:42.257 --> 0:35:46.017 least in the first several months, you could make an 0:35:46.097 --> 0:35:50.137 argument that far from being a blunder, it's actually been 0:35:50.217 --> 0:35:57.577 a grand success in that when Lloyd Austin and Anthony 0:35:57.657 --> 0:36:02.097 Blincoln first made their triumphant entrance into Ukraine after the 0:36:02.097 --> 0:36:06.057 war started in April, Austin made a comment that became 0:36:06.177 --> 0:36:11.217 fairly well known and widely remarked where he said that 0:36:11.257 --> 0:36:14.457 one of the chief aims of US policy in Ukraine 0:36:14.537 --> 0:36:18.497 was not merely to enable Ukraine to achieve victory on 0:36:18.537 --> 0:36:24.537 the battlefield, but to quote weak in Russia. And unless 0:36:24.537 --> 0:36:28.257 you think the Secretary of Defense is just off his 0:36:28.417 --> 0:36:34.777 rocker and freelancing without any sort of authorization or without 0:36:35.097 --> 0:36:39.257 commenting on a policy ambition that really does exist, I 0:36:39.337 --> 0:36:41.217 think it was fair at the time and still fair 0:36:41.257 --> 0:36:45.097 now to believe him when he says that is a 0:36:45.137 --> 0:36:48.417 goal of US policy. Right. And there was also a 0:36:48.457 --> 0:36:52.457 column that was published by Neil Ferguson and Bloomberg in 0:36:52.497 --> 0:36:56.657 March of last year where he claimed to have overheard 0:36:56.737 --> 0:37:00.617 a Biden administration official blabbing at some function where the 0:37:00.697 --> 0:37:04.977 official blurted out that the whole point of this Ukraine 0:37:05.017 --> 0:37:08.297 interventions policy was to quote bleed Russia dry, Right, which 0:37:09.537 --> 0:37:13.977 then kind of gives a little bit more explanatory power 0:37:14.097 --> 0:37:18.017 to why certain decisions have gone the way they have. Right. 0:37:18.297 --> 0:37:21.057 So we talked before about the people who are complaining 0:37:21.057 --> 0:37:25.257 about the laxity of the deployment of different weapons systems, right, 0:37:25.257 --> 0:37:28.537 they want it done faster, and they don't want any 0:37:28.657 --> 0:37:32.377 sort of more hindrances in terms of which styles of 0:37:32.377 --> 0:37:35.697 weapons can be sent. Well, if your whole object is 0:37:35.737 --> 0:37:38.257 to just bleed, rush, or dry, then maybe your idea 0:37:38.297 --> 0:37:42.017 would be to just prolong the conflict and escalate it 0:37:42.097 --> 0:37:45.617 incrementally and gradually, rather than dumping everything into the war 0:37:45.697 --> 0:37:47.657 zone at once, because the idea is just to have 0:37:47.897 --> 0:37:52.137 Russia burn its resources and eventually weaken it to the 0:37:52.137 --> 0:37:56.297 point that something can be done in terms of potentially 0:37:56.337 --> 0:38:02.577 fostering regime change or some other resolution. So yeah, in 0:38:02.777 --> 0:38:06.577 terms of a blunder from a more i guess substantive perspective, 0:38:06.617 --> 0:38:09.537 so kind of doing away with like whatever framework the 0:38:09.577 --> 0:38:16.217 actual advocates of the intervention have adopted for themselves that yeah, yeah, 0:38:16.257 --> 0:38:22.577 well yeah, or like what is what will reduce the 0:38:22.617 --> 0:38:26.977 incidents of just mass death and suffering and destruction. I 0:38:27.017 --> 0:38:28.857 always get a kick out of these people who have 0:38:28.977 --> 0:38:36.057 been hardcore champions of US interventionist foreign policy, because in 0:38:36.177 --> 0:38:39.657 Ukraine they've gotten their way. I mean, they always erect 0:38:39.737 --> 0:38:44.937 these boogeyman of isolationists as though everybody's kind of, you know, 0:38:46.017 --> 0:38:48.417 chomping at the bit. These isolationists are all chopping at 0:38:48.417 --> 0:38:52.297 the bit to just undercut US policy because they're they're 0:38:52.337 --> 0:38:55.777 so sinister and they have such outside influence, whereas I mean, 0:38:55.817 --> 0:39:00.377 there's no isolationist. Isolationism is not the policy of the 0:39:00.497 --> 0:39:03.977 US is following in Ukraine right now, Certainly the interventionists 0:39:03.977 --> 0:39:06.057 have gotten their way. I mean, there's a massive, sprawling, 0:39:06.137 --> 0:39:09.737 multidimensional intervention as of as we speak in Ukraine, and 0:39:09.777 --> 0:39:12.057 it's going on for a year, and it's escalating pretty 0:39:12.137 --> 0:39:18.057 much by the week. But they'll they'll sort of posture 0:39:18.697 --> 0:39:21.337 as having the moral high ground. Right, So the people 0:39:21.337 --> 0:39:25.217 who maybe are skeptical of intervention in US foreign policy, 0:39:25.297 --> 0:39:31.337 they're morally blighted, they're sinister, they have ulterior motives, maybe 0:39:31.337 --> 0:39:36.177 they're paid by Russia whatever, or doing propaganda or spreading disinformation. 0:39:36.177 --> 0:39:38.257 Whereas the people who are champions of this policy, they 0:39:38.257 --> 0:39:41.257 have the moral high ground, they understand the stakes. They're 0:39:41.337 --> 0:39:44.897 like humanitarians of some kind. Meanwhile, look at the fruits 0:39:44.937 --> 0:39:47.057 of the policy that they've been voted for the past year. 0:39:47.537 --> 0:39:51.097 The German intelligence services, at least it's reported by Drshpiegel 0:39:51.137 --> 0:39:58.577 a few weeks ago, said that there are hundreds of bodies, 0:39:58.897 --> 0:40:03.497 hundreds of dead Ukrainian soldiers piling up every day in 0:40:03.537 --> 0:40:06.497 the war as of at least late January, and then 0:40:06.657 --> 0:40:09.217 also a heck of a lot of Russian casualties apparently, 0:40:09.257 --> 0:40:12.577 although we don't know the precise figures. Let's just I 0:40:12.617 --> 0:40:16.017 don't know, give a ballpark estimate of I don't know, 0:40:16.737 --> 0:40:19.297 six hundred, seven hundred. If there's at least one hundred 0:40:19.337 --> 0:40:21.497 a day right just on the Ukraine side, then like 0:40:21.537 --> 0:40:26.017 a lower tier estimate would be like a thousand killed 0:40:26.017 --> 0:40:29.857 in action a week, right, something like that. You have 0:40:29.977 --> 0:40:34.257 the you have the moral standing or you you presume 0:40:34.337 --> 0:40:37.337 yourself to have the moral standing to pontificate about the 0:40:37.417 --> 0:40:41.377 humanitarian virtue that you embody by your advocacy of this 0:40:41.737 --> 0:40:46.057 interventionist position when the results of it are a thousand, 0:40:46.377 --> 0:40:51.737 like twenty year olds blown to bits every week. I 0:40:51.777 --> 0:40:56.177 don't really I'm not sure that you have the really 0:40:56.497 --> 0:41:01.297 the right to be pontificating, as I just jump in 0:41:01.337 --> 0:41:04.857 really quickly here, because if it were either a Democrat 0:41:04.857 --> 0:41:07.457 interventionist or there are, as you point out at the 0:41:07.497 --> 0:41:10.817 beginning of our discussion, the right, there's more or dissent 0:41:10.977 --> 0:41:13.497 about this issue than on the left. I don't I 0:41:13.537 --> 0:41:16.777 do not see any Democrat pundits of any platform or 0:41:16.857 --> 0:41:20.337 standing a considerable platform who are opposed to what's going 0:41:20.377 --> 0:41:22.577 on in Ukraine. I do see, you know, Tucker Carlson, 0:41:22.617 --> 0:41:26.737 for example, very prominently is a skeptic of what's going 0:41:26.777 --> 0:41:29.337 on with US intervention in Ukraine. But the people that 0:41:29.377 --> 0:41:32.657 aren't skeptics, what they would say to you, Michael, is Okay, yeah, 0:41:32.737 --> 0:41:35.257 there's a lot of casualties going on, but if we 0:41:35.257 --> 0:41:38.697 weren't giving the Ukrainians to fight, it would be an 0:41:38.697 --> 0:41:44.337 invasion by Putin with genocide and tyranny and even more casualties. 0:41:44.377 --> 0:41:46.377 By the way, I don't subscribe to this theory. I'm 0:41:46.377 --> 0:41:49.697 just saying, what do you what is your response to 0:41:49.737 --> 0:41:55.617 what would clearly be their attack at that point of view, Well, right, 0:41:55.657 --> 0:41:57.977 they have to immediately resort to conjuring up one of 0:41:57.977 --> 0:42:04.017 these counterfactual scenarios and make everybody really intimidated by this 0:42:04.097 --> 0:42:07.537 hypothetical prospect of you know, mass genocide or you know, 0:42:07.937 --> 0:42:11.057 who are doing a blitzkrieg throughout the rest of East 0:42:11.377 --> 0:42:13.737 of Europe, or one of these other more you know, 0:42:15.097 --> 0:42:19.537 extreme scenarios that they conveniently don't have to ever prove 0:42:19.817 --> 0:42:23.537 are true, because they're intentionally bringing up a counter factual 0:42:23.617 --> 0:42:27.337 that can't be proven or disproven, whereas I have the 0:42:27.417 --> 0:42:29.977 luxury of looking at the facts on the ground and 0:42:30.017 --> 0:42:31.897 what has actually been done and what is in the 0:42:31.937 --> 0:42:36.017 observable record, and what can be empirically verified. And that's 0:42:36.057 --> 0:42:37.857 the fruits of the policy that they've promoted. I mean, 0:42:37.897 --> 0:42:40.057 they're they're the ones who have been chanting stand with 0:42:40.137 --> 0:42:44.777 Ukraine for a year, waving flags, demanding escalations in weapons 0:42:44.817 --> 0:42:52.137 provision and just being general advocates of the overall sort 0:42:52.137 --> 0:42:56.297 of policy framework that's been employed in Ukraine by the US. 0:42:57.097 --> 0:43:03.377 And yet somehow the mass death and destruction and economic 0:43:03.457 --> 0:43:10.377 turmoil and you know, basically just total obliteration of Crans 0:43:10.457 --> 0:43:16.057 state capacity and so on, none of that they bear 0:43:16.097 --> 0:43:21.577 any responsibility for, because they'll claim, oh, what do you mean, 0:43:21.737 --> 0:43:23.977 it's all just Russia. Now, of course, Russia is a 0:43:24.097 --> 0:43:27.097 belligerent in the war. They're fighting the war. They're responsible 0:43:27.297 --> 0:43:30.577 for the warfare that they undertake. Right, But this idea 0:43:30.657 --> 0:43:35.817 that the United States hasn't pursued a policy explicitly that 0:43:36.337 --> 0:43:41.017 was intended to facilitate the intensification of warfare. And then 0:43:41.137 --> 0:43:44.097 we see intensified warfare on the battlefield and the casualties 0:43:44.137 --> 0:43:48.377 associated with that. And there's no culpability at all or 0:43:48.497 --> 0:43:51.817 no responsibility that is borne by the United States for it. 0:43:51.817 --> 0:44:00.217 It's just a deflections. They are understandably resistant to being 0:44:01.017 --> 0:44:04.617 called to account for the ramifications of what they promoted, 0:44:04.697 --> 0:44:08.177 because what they what those ramifications are, we can see 0:44:08.217 --> 0:44:11.897 with our own eyes. It's the ad miseration of Ukraine 0:44:11.937 --> 0:44:15.377 and and with no end in sight. Well, that's that's 0:44:16.817 --> 0:44:18.337 I don't know that I would be so smug if 0:44:18.337 --> 0:44:21.017 I were in their position to somehow act like you've 0:44:21.057 --> 0:44:25.177 been morally vindicated or tactically vindicated, or indicated in some 0:44:25.217 --> 0:44:32.057 other sense. Given what seems like a rapidly expanding disaster, 0:44:33.017 --> 0:44:36.057 where do you see it going? Because right now it 0:44:36.177 --> 0:44:40.137 sounds like it very much sounds like this, because Biden 0:44:40.177 --> 0:44:42.817 has said it, We're in it until the end, whatever 0:44:42.857 --> 0:44:46.297 it takes, whatever it costs. That is the explicit policy 0:44:46.417 --> 0:44:49.537 of the Biden White House and and really of the 0:44:49.577 --> 0:44:51.617 of the uniparty. If there is such a thing and 0:44:51.617 --> 0:44:54.177 a natural security there there really is, I think almost 0:44:54.177 --> 0:44:57.457 more than anywhere else a uniparty um. That is the 0:44:57.497 --> 0:45:01.417 position and Vladimir Putin is not backing off of this. 0:45:01.457 --> 0:45:03.657 I don't think anyone believes he's going to back off 0:45:03.697 --> 0:45:06.337 of this, even if they have another one hundred thousand 0:45:06.377 --> 0:45:11.897 casualties this year. So where do you see it going? Well, 0:45:12.697 --> 0:45:14.897 a lot of the fretting among if you want to 0:45:14.897 --> 0:45:16.377 call at the uniparty, or at least you know, the 0:45:16.737 --> 0:45:21.137 sort of mainline consensus of the national security operators who 0:45:21.137 --> 0:45:24.817 were the most sort of art enthusiast for this gambit. 0:45:25.737 --> 0:45:29.297 The main fretting that they do, it seems as regards 0:45:29.377 --> 0:45:33.977 the ultimate outcome of the war is they're concerned that, 0:45:34.057 --> 0:45:35.857 you know, Kevin McCarthy is all of a sudden going 0:45:35.897 --> 0:45:39.057 to become an anti war activist and decide to cut 0:45:39.097 --> 0:45:45.057 off aid to Ukraine, which was always such a ridiculous concept. 0:45:45.137 --> 0:45:48.097 It was kind of manufactured as this mid term election 0:45:49.057 --> 0:45:51.697 talking point by you know, Democrats and the media who 0:45:51.737 --> 0:45:54.977 wanted to like paint McCarthy and the Republicans as somehow 0:45:54.977 --> 0:45:58.337 stooges of Putin, and it wasn't actually in accordance with 0:45:58.377 --> 0:46:02.217 anything McCarthy had ever really said or espoused. He made 0:46:02.217 --> 0:46:05.097 one fleeting comment about how supposedly the Republicans don't want 0:46:05.097 --> 0:46:07.737 to give Ukraine a blank check anymore. But you know, 0:46:07.777 --> 0:46:10.417 everybody pretty much agrees with that statement, or he says 0:46:10.457 --> 0:46:15.177 they do, Democrats and Republicans alike. I mean, Marco Rubio says, oh, 0:46:15.297 --> 0:46:17.297 of course, we don't want to give Ukraine to blank check, 0:46:17.377 --> 0:46:19.937 but we have to still send them tons of military equipment. 0:46:20.057 --> 0:46:21.537 So like everybody can just claim that they're not in 0:46:21.537 --> 0:46:23.457 favor of blank check. It didn't mean anything when McCarthy 0:46:23.497 --> 0:46:26.337 said it. I mean he was actually criticizing Biden early 0:46:26.337 --> 0:46:30.017 on in the war, starting last March or so, for 0:46:30.177 --> 0:46:34.777 not being aggressive enough in sending, for example, or facilitating 0:46:34.817 --> 0:46:37.177 the transfer of those MiG jets early on that Poland 0:46:37.177 --> 0:46:41.217 wanted to deploy. And McCarthy was a critic of Biden 0:46:41.337 --> 0:46:45.777 from a hawkish perspective on the war as at least 0:46:45.777 --> 0:46:50.617 an earlier juncture, as have been the core leadership of 0:46:50.657 --> 0:46:53.377 the Republican Party, and that both the House and Senate 0:46:53.617 --> 0:46:58.817 at least tophonic Steve Scalise, Kevin McCarthy all hardcore Ukraine 0:46:58.857 --> 0:47:01.577 interventionist hawks. Now maybe they sort of like modulate their 0:47:01.657 --> 0:47:05.057 rhetoric in certain contexts, given that they know there's a 0:47:05.177 --> 0:47:09.217 bit more consternation about that position within elements of the 0:47:09.297 --> 0:47:12.817 Republican colition, but doesn't change the fundamental policy that they're 0:47:12.857 --> 0:47:16.697 still clear and on the record as in support of 0:47:16.857 --> 0:47:20.177 same within with the Senate, with you know, Mitch McConnell, 0:47:20.297 --> 0:47:24.097 John Thune, Rick Scott, etc. McConnell was here, as you 0:47:24.177 --> 0:47:26.777 might know, at the Munich Security Conference with his blue 0:47:26.777 --> 0:47:30.657 and white striped tie saying that look what you should 0:47:30.657 --> 0:47:33.057 and he was right about this. What McConnell said was 0:47:33.057 --> 0:47:35.337 because of course all these people at who want to 0:47:35.337 --> 0:47:37.217 ask him questions of this event, they're all asking like, 0:47:37.217 --> 0:47:42.217 what can you do to make sure that the the 0:47:42.217 --> 0:47:45.377 the you know, Maga isolation as Republicans don't get their 0:47:45.377 --> 0:47:49.657 way and the House Republicans and Senate Republicans make sure 0:47:49.697 --> 0:47:54.257 that aid continues to flow uninhibited. He'll always he'll say 0:47:54.297 --> 0:47:56.217 a variation of or he started saying, a variation of 0:47:56.217 --> 0:47:58.497 a one that I think is actually just true. Whether 0:47:58.537 --> 0:48:00.777 it's good or bad as another question, but he said 0:48:00.817 --> 0:48:06.217 it's true. He said, don't really fixate on the handful 0:48:06.297 --> 0:48:09.217 of sort of eccentric personalities, like especially in the House, 0:48:09.257 --> 0:48:12.377 who get a lot of airtime, or forget about like 0:48:12.417 --> 0:48:15.897 the social media chatter on this or the media commentary 0:48:16.337 --> 0:48:20.897 TV commentary. Look at who the Republicans actually have impositions 0:48:21.057 --> 0:48:25.377 of legislative power in the Congress, and he's right. The 0:48:25.377 --> 0:48:28.817 heads of the three main committees that would be overseeing 0:48:29.417 --> 0:48:37.217 the drafting of any any forthcoming Ukraine AID legislation are 0:48:37.337 --> 0:48:40.497 among the most ardent hawks in either party on the subject. 0:48:40.537 --> 0:48:44.057 Mike McCall, Mike Turner, etc. On the you know, the 0:48:44.057 --> 0:48:48.257 Foreign Relations Committee, the Armed Services Committee, the actual committee chairs. 0:48:48.257 --> 0:48:54.057 So people who would be exerting power over the formulation 0:48:54.137 --> 0:48:59.577 of this procedurally in the House, they're all even they're 0:48:59.617 --> 0:49:03.897 in that crowd that criticized Biden for not being hawkish enough. Okay, 0:49:04.937 --> 0:49:07.817 So in terms of where the whole conflict is going, 0:49:07.897 --> 0:49:10.377 I think that whole side of it, meaning people are 0:49:11.217 --> 0:49:16.777 always cautioning or pointing out the specter of somehow Republicans 0:49:17.697 --> 0:49:21.217 becoming an anti war caucus and cutting off the provision 0:49:21.257 --> 0:49:26.137 of AID. I don't think that's a particularly realistic possibility, 0:49:26.217 --> 0:49:28.057 or I don't at least don't see much evidence that 0:49:28.097 --> 0:49:30.577 anybody should let that sort of dictate how they understand 0:49:30.617 --> 0:49:32.577 what the trajectory of the war is, because it seems 0:49:32.577 --> 0:49:34.737 like there's every reason to believe it'll just kind of 0:49:34.937 --> 0:49:37.897 the status quo will continue in that respect, Where do 0:49:37.937 --> 0:49:42.057 I see it going? I mean, you know, I'm hesitant 0:49:42.057 --> 0:49:46.937 to answer that question in a speculative sense because that 0:49:46.977 --> 0:49:50.057 always makes people look bad. Like we had. There's this 0:49:50.097 --> 0:49:53.697 talking point that goes around now where we're told everybody believed, 0:49:53.777 --> 0:49:56.297 or people will say and even like the Polish president 0:49:56.337 --> 0:50:00.697 said it last night introducing Biden in Warsaw, and like 0:50:00.737 --> 0:50:02.977 Alexei Navalni I saw saying, and everybody says it, it's 0:50:02.977 --> 0:50:04.737 just like a matter of like just it's an article 0:50:04.737 --> 0:50:06.857 of faith. It's part of like the war mythology. Now 0:50:06.897 --> 0:50:11.497 that everybody believed somehow that Kiev would fall within three days, 0:50:11.497 --> 0:50:13.937 and they were all wrong, because Ukraine showed how we're 0:50:13.937 --> 0:50:17.177 sourceful it is and how bold its fighters are and 0:50:17.537 --> 0:50:19.617 warded off the Russian menace heroically, and that's why we 0:50:19.697 --> 0:50:24.657 then have to have this indefinite commitment of perpetual warfare 0:50:24.657 --> 0:50:28.937 provision to Ukraine. Right, So I think that coal narrative 0:50:29.017 --> 0:50:31.857 is a bit of a misnomer. And let's like, you know, 0:50:31.897 --> 0:50:34.937 cleverly constructed war propagandic because everybody did not quote believe 0:50:34.977 --> 0:50:37.977 that there was one briefing that Mark Milly gave in 0:50:38.217 --> 0:50:42.657 early February where he suggested that Russia could or may 0:50:43.617 --> 0:50:48.817 sees Kiev Kiev in one of several possible scenarios, and 0:50:48.817 --> 0:50:52.057 then that was just extrapolated into oh, everyone unbelieved that 0:50:52.137 --> 0:50:54.897 this was going to be happening with absolute certainty, which 0:50:54.937 --> 0:50:57.017 was again not the case. But you can see why 0:50:57.137 --> 0:51:00.337 Ukrainians or pro Ukraine advocates would want to hype that 0:51:00.897 --> 0:51:03.457 as supposedly what happened, because it kind of gives their 0:51:04.337 --> 0:51:09.777 endeavor this like heightened purpose and it's like this animating 0:51:10.337 --> 0:51:14.417 sort of force for their argumentation. Here's what I can say, 0:51:14.497 --> 0:51:16.857 is happening. I've rather almost try to figure out what 0:51:16.977 --> 0:51:18.937 is happening then what may happen six months from now, 0:51:18.977 --> 0:51:23.377 because I don't freaking know what is very unpredictable. Well, 0:51:23.417 --> 0:51:28.897 what is happening is because you have this Western security establishment, 0:51:29.257 --> 0:51:31.217 so to say, And I hate even using the word 0:51:31.257 --> 0:51:33.737 West or Western in this context without scare quotes, because 0:51:33.777 --> 0:51:36.337 it's such like a ridiculous conceit or the West, what 0:51:36.377 --> 0:51:38.257 does that even mean? I mean, it's so sort of 0:51:38.537 --> 0:51:43.657 annoying and self aggrandizing. What is happening is you do 0:51:43.737 --> 0:51:48.617 see a hardening of the ideological zeal of the core 0:51:48.737 --> 0:51:55.337 decision makers who are party to the development of the 0:51:55.537 --> 0:52:02.897 just policy orientation of these security and state apparatus. Is 0:52:05.257 --> 0:52:08.937 Biden being a chief example. I mean, I actually think 0:52:08.977 --> 0:52:14.377 people under rate the significance of Biden's sincerely felt ideological 0:52:14.417 --> 0:52:17.137 convictions on this. Like people think that Biden is just 0:52:17.217 --> 0:52:20.857 senile and or his interest in Ukraine is all about 0:52:20.857 --> 0:52:23.417 how like he wanted Hunter to get like sixty thousand 0:52:23.457 --> 0:52:25.977 dollars a month from the Barisma board. That's like an 0:52:26.377 --> 0:52:31.697 ancillarily related dimension of Biden's relationship with Ukraine. But I 0:52:31.737 --> 0:52:33.737 am inclined really to take on his word when he 0:52:33.817 --> 0:52:39.097 makes these incredibly zealous statements about how awesomely important he 0:52:39.297 --> 0:52:41.777 views the conflict to be, and it would be consistent 0:52:41.817 --> 0:52:45.217 with what his foreign policy views and what his emphasis 0:52:45.257 --> 0:52:48.297 has been in public life as a member of the 0:52:48.337 --> 0:52:51.337 Senate going back decades and then as Vice president. This 0:52:51.417 --> 0:52:53.977 is bright within his ballywick as something that he thinks 0:52:54.097 --> 0:52:59.337 is actually extraordinarily existentially civilizationally important. You can pull up 0:52:59.377 --> 0:53:01.577 clips of him in the nineties, like being the person 0:53:01.657 --> 0:53:03.777 that Bill Clinton and then later in the two thousands, 0:53:03.777 --> 0:53:07.937 George W. Bush designated to usher through NATO expansion in 0:53:08.177 --> 0:53:11.697 the Senate. You know, so while he might not have 0:53:11.737 --> 0:53:16.017 been like a long time zealous, he might have been 0:53:16.057 --> 0:53:17.897 like it have been a long time audiologue with regard 0:53:17.897 --> 0:53:21.697 to like Afghanistan, right, which is why he allowed for 0:53:21.897 --> 0:53:25.257 or you know, ordered the withdrawal in twenty twenty one. 0:53:26.497 --> 0:53:29.297 In terms of Europe and um, you know, Soviet Union 0:53:29.337 --> 0:53:31.377 and slash Russia relations in the United States, this is 0:53:31.417 --> 0:53:35.417 something that he actually, you know, been deeply, seemingly ideologically 0:53:35.417 --> 0:53:37.657 invested in for a long time. So I'll take him 0:53:37.657 --> 0:53:40.977 at his word on that. And that's actually all the 0:53:41.017 --> 0:53:45.697 more reason to presume that the commitment is going to 0:53:45.777 --> 0:53:48.857 be indefinite, or at least there's no reason to think 0:53:48.897 --> 0:53:51.297 that the current trajectory will change. And what is the 0:53:51.297 --> 0:53:58.577 current trajectory. It's these escalatory spirals that are hit for 0:53:58.657 --> 0:54:04.617 tat and have this center just a sort of relationship 0:54:04.657 --> 0:54:06.937 with one another between the US, slash Ukraine and Russia. 0:54:07.257 --> 0:54:12.017 That although people, I thought people claim that the red 0:54:12.057 --> 0:54:14.097 lines were never crossed and Putin was bluffing right as 0:54:14.097 --> 0:54:16.497 we were talking about before, We're at a point. Now, 0:54:16.537 --> 0:54:18.937 I mean if I if I told you a year 0:54:18.937 --> 0:54:20.137 and a half ago, or if you told me a 0:54:20.177 --> 0:54:22.457 year and a half ago, right, that the US would 0:54:22.497 --> 0:54:28.377 be essentially functionally effectively in a hot war with Russia 0:54:28.457 --> 0:54:33.137 in that you have this incredibly intense operational involvement in 0:54:33.177 --> 0:54:37.817 the actual combat that the US's engineering. You have the 0:54:37.857 --> 0:54:43.217 weapons provision, the diplomatic side of it, the economic subsidy, 0:54:43.217 --> 0:54:45.177 and so forth. If you had told me that and 0:54:45.257 --> 0:54:48.137 given me some examples of like what this has manifested 0:54:48.137 --> 0:54:50.937 as like, for example, in December of last year, there 0:54:50.977 --> 0:54:54.897 was a drone strike three hundred miles inside Russia, Okay, 0:54:55.497 --> 0:55:01.617 on an air base that housed part of Russia's strategic 0:55:01.857 --> 0:55:07.617 nuclear fleet. Ukraine did another audacious act and did a 0:55:07.697 --> 0:55:10.657 drone strike on that base. Now that's the US sponsoring 0:55:10.857 --> 0:55:14.177 Ukraine's ability to do that. Whatever direct operational world the 0:55:14.257 --> 0:55:16.817 US might have had in that particular action sort of 0:55:17.137 --> 0:55:19.777 beside the point. It's only because of the US sponsorship 0:55:19.777 --> 0:55:21.577 of the Ukraine military you can do anything at all. 0:55:21.897 --> 0:55:26.417 Right now, if you had told me that that happened, right, 0:55:27.457 --> 0:55:36.617 or that the US would be declaring through the words 0:55:36.617 --> 0:55:40.937 of the President that nuclear apocalypse. Mr Biden said this 0:55:41.297 --> 0:55:47.737 in October. Nuclear apo apocalypse is a greater threat than 0:55:47.737 --> 0:55:52.257 at any time since the Cuban missile crisis, or you 0:55:52.257 --> 0:55:55.937 had told me just a dozen or more other insane 0:55:56.017 --> 0:55:59.697 things that are that exemplified this conflict, I mean even 0:55:59.737 --> 0:56:01.697 just a few weeks ago or two weeks ago or so. 0:56:01.897 --> 0:56:06.857 The Washington Post reported that when the Ukraine military fires 0:56:06.857 --> 0:56:10.337 any rocket attacks on any at any Russian tar good, 0:56:11.337 --> 0:56:15.417 that every single time, or virtually every single time, the 0:56:15.537 --> 0:56:19.217 United States is effectively firing the rocket in that it's 0:56:19.257 --> 0:56:24.257 providing such precise and granular real time intelligence that it's 0:56:24.337 --> 0:56:28.657 essentially a second party to the actual conduct of the 0:56:28.657 --> 0:56:32.857 strike through a base that the US has on the 0:56:32.897 --> 0:56:36.017 periphery of Ukraine somewhere somewhere in one of these other 0:56:36.057 --> 0:56:38.897 countries like Romania or Poland. I mean, that's that's insane. 0:56:38.937 --> 0:56:41.697 That's like direct war with Russia. Okay, So people don't people, 0:56:41.737 --> 0:56:44.537 but people have been habituated or they've been acclimated to 0:56:44.937 --> 0:56:49.017 how jarring and insane that is over the last year 0:56:49.057 --> 0:56:51.817 because of the way that they've approached this issue policy wise, mean, 0:56:51.857 --> 0:56:56.497 the bind administration, Congress, etc. They've done the escalations incrementally. 0:56:56.897 --> 0:56:58.817 The war first started, supposedly, it was like this limited 0:56:58.897 --> 0:57:01.937 humanitarian aid mission with a couple of rifles and javelins, 0:57:01.937 --> 0:57:04.617 and that was it. Now we're furnishing Ukraine and entirely 0:57:04.657 --> 0:57:07.737 new military with F sixteens potentially, or at least that 0:57:07.777 --> 0:57:10.897 we know now, Abram's tanks and Patriot bat reason everything else. 0:57:10.937 --> 0:57:15.137 It's like, it's not Michael. We got to leave it there, 0:57:15.177 --> 0:57:18.017 Michael Tracy. Everybody check out his substack. Michael will have 0:57:18.057 --> 0:57:19.737 you back with more time to talk about this and 0:57:19.817 --> 0:57:22.257 other subjects too. Thanks for being here on the show Man. 0:57:22.297 --> 0:57:24.977 We appreciate you all right, enjoyed it. Thanks