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Speaker 1: The volume. Listen. We've all had fender benders in our life.

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Speaker 1: go for the people dot com slash Colin or dial

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Speaker 1: pound law. That's pound five to nine from your cell phone.

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Speaker 1: That's for the people dot com slash Colin or pound

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Speaker 1: Law five to nine from your cell. This is a

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Speaker 1: paid advertisement, all right. Instant reaction on the Rams throttling

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Speaker 1: got a little close at the end due to a

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Speaker 1: block punt and a secondary lapse. And the Rams defense

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Speaker 1: is a bunch of kids. You can beat them deep

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Speaker 1: down the field, and the Saints did late in the game.

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Speaker 1: But kind of a coaching mismatch, I thought. Once the

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Speaker 1: Saints went for it at the end of the half

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Speaker 1: instead of pinning the Rams deep. Rams had three timeouts left,

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Speaker 1: they held, march down the field, scored ten point Rams

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Speaker 1: lead at half. Felt like the ballgame to me. You know,

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Speaker 1: there were two games this week on the docket that

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Speaker 1: I really really liked. One of them I talked about

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Speaker 1: this on FS. One was the Rams tonight four three

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Speaker 1: and a half against Derek Carr and the Saints. McVeigh

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Speaker 1: in a short week has won six of seven games.

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Speaker 1: Offensive coaches on a short week can be really really

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Speaker 1: good against defensive coaches. They can do little tweaks with

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Speaker 1: their quarterback and their offense. An offensive culture, I think

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Speaker 1: always has a bit of an advantage on a short week,

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Speaker 1: especially if you're playing at home and McVeigh is six

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Speaker 1: and one in these spots now seven and one. And

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Speaker 1: also I don't think Dennis Allen's a very good coach.

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Speaker 1: The last two weeks I've watched McVeigh work Ron Rivera

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Speaker 1: of the Commanders. Commanders late game situational football was embarrassing,

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Speaker 1: and I thought Dennis Allen's halftime move right before half

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Speaker 1: was a swing and a miss. So you know, I

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Speaker 1: go on and on about this, but McVeigh is having

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Speaker 1: an unbelievable year. If you watch all the motions and

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Speaker 1: all the shifting and all the manipulation on virtually every play,

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Speaker 1: Saints lineup. They don't use motion. I mean most of

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Speaker 1: the time they don't use motion. They line up. They

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Speaker 1: don't put the defense in conflict. It's much easier for

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Speaker 1: a defense to just line up, see what you're doing,

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Speaker 1: and go. The Rams are using shifts and motions and

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Speaker 1: these multiple sets where you've got three receivers, jumbo sets.

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Speaker 1: It puts a lot of conflict and a lot of

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Speaker 1: decision making. Throw in some motion. The Niners with Kyle

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Speaker 1: Shanahan lead the league in motion, along with Miami with

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Speaker 1: an offensive coach, and the Rams with an offensive coach.

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Speaker 1: It is checkers and chess and McVeigh McDaniel, Andy Reid, Shanahan.

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Speaker 1: It's a different looking sport. I mean, it's a different

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Speaker 1: looking sport. So and mcveigh's had his way two and

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Speaker 1: oh against defensive coach Pete Carroll, one to oh against

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Speaker 1: Ron Rivera, want to oh against Dennis Allen, two and

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Speaker 1: oh against Arizona. He lost earlier in the year when

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Speaker 1: the Rams were kind of beat up to Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 1: the Steelers, but since Thanksgiving Matt Staff fourteen touchdowns, one

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Speaker 1: pick and a passer rating of over one fourteen. And

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, one of the things that jumps

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Speaker 1: out to me is that McVeagh and less Need the

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Speaker 1: GM really work hand in hand, and that's really really important.

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Speaker 1: I remember when Jim Harball was with the Niners with

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Speaker 1: Trent and Balky, and they couldn't stand each other. And

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Speaker 1: there's some situations in the NFL where the gms and

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Speaker 1: the coaches aren't close. Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton when

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Speaker 1: they were in New Orleans were best friends. Really matters.

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Speaker 1: But you know, less Need and McVeigh mcvay's got a

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Speaker 1: great sense for offense. They find Puka Nakua in the

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Speaker 1: fifth round, and they also go get here's a prime

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Speaker 1: example of an offensive culture. So dots and the interior

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Speaker 1: offensive lineman for the Rams. They pick him up in

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Speaker 1: a trade on the interior the online from the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: Steelers weren't going to start Dotson the guard. He's now

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Speaker 1: the fourth highest readed guard in the NFL with Sean McVay.

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Speaker 1: Steelers wen't going to start. And I go on and

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Speaker 1: on about this, but McVeigh is the preparation, the in

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Speaker 1: game management. And I think a lot of times that

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Speaker 1: the media beats up on coaches for some clock stuff

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Speaker 1: late in games. It's fast moving, it's fluid. Nobody's perfect.

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Speaker 1: But I'll take the offensive guys over the defensive guys

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Speaker 1: every time. And I also think one of the advantages

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Speaker 1: the Rams have because they don't have good special teams.

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Speaker 1: They're not a super Bowl team in my opinion. They're

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Speaker 1: a team that can go. They'll probably end up getting

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Speaker 1: into the playoffs and facing Detroit in Detroit, and I

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Speaker 1: would probably take the Lions. They have more experience, they

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Speaker 1: have a dominant offensive line. Jared Goff is very good

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Speaker 1: at home when he gets on his spot and not rushed,

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Speaker 1: and the Rams pass rush can be a little hit

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Speaker 1: and miss. Their special teams aren't good, their secondaries young

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Speaker 1: got torched over the top a couple of times tonight,

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Speaker 1: first half and second half. That's what Rams games are.

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Speaker 1: But they've scored at least twenty seven points, I think,

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Speaker 1: in four straight games. And I thought they should have

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Speaker 1: beaten the Ravens. It was go either way game. But

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Speaker 1: we'd seen other teams in the NFC go out to Baltimore,

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Speaker 1: Detroit and Seattle and get smoked. The Rams went out

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Speaker 1: there and went toe to toe with Baltimore, a really

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Speaker 1: good football team. So I just think you're looking at

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Speaker 1: a Rams team that has made over the last six weeks.

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Speaker 1: They are a completely different football team. A lot of

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Speaker 1: it is on offense. The special teams weren't good early

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Speaker 1: are not good now. Their secondary's okay, it's okay now.

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Speaker 1: It's the offensive improvement. Guys have gotten healthy. Stafford's getting

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Speaker 1: time to throw. Kyra and Williams the running back, small

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Speaker 1: guy but very powerful and shifty. And mcveigh's offense is

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Speaker 1: really a ball control offense. You know, you think McVeigh,

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Speaker 1: you know you think these offensive coaches. You know, it's big,

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Speaker 1: over the top plays, It really isn't with McVeigh. He

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Speaker 1: was at his best when Gurley was in his prime,

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Speaker 1: and now Williams in his prime. That's really when he's

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Speaker 1: at his best when he can rely on a fifteen

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Speaker 1: to eighteen carry running back. And also Cooper Cup's a

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Speaker 1: big receiver. Puka Nakou is a big receiver. He uses

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Speaker 1: though highly effectively. So I really like what I saw

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Speaker 1: with the Rams tonight. Again, it was one of my

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Speaker 1: favorite picks of the week. This and the Cowboys over

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins. They get a scheduling break now. The Rams

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Speaker 1: get ten days to prepare for the New York Giants,

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Speaker 1: So that's an advantage the Giants because they're on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Then they go to New York. Ten days for offensive

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Speaker 1: coaches is a big advantage. The Giants have a game,

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Speaker 1: big underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles who are desperate for

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Speaker 1: a win, so a very physical in division game for

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Speaker 1: the Giants, and then the Rams get four extra days

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Speaker 1: to prep on a roll very confident. Didn't see a

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Speaker 1: lot of injuries Tonpe Stafford's getting good protection, but it

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Speaker 1: was a work of art over the last month. If

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Speaker 1: you watch the Rams DeMarcus Robinson, there's another guy they

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Speaker 1: just picked up. It took about six to eight weeks.

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Speaker 1: McVeigh gets him into the system. Now he's valuable. Poka

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Speaker 1: Nakua rookie. He was great from the very beginning. Cooper

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Speaker 1: Cup healthy is become a very very deep receiving core.

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Speaker 1: Then it was one of the primary concerns going into

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Speaker 1: the season, and then you hit on Pooka and then

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, Robinson becomes a vital player. He

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Speaker 1: will always a hard work where he played with Baltimore,

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Speaker 1: twitchy athletic. He was very good in the first half.

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Speaker 1: So it is all rolling for the Rams. Now they're hot.

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Speaker 1: It was a coaching mismatch to get a scheduling break,

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Speaker 1: and they feel like a playoff team. The team's on

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Speaker 1: the bubble. The Saints, okay, Now the Rams have an

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Speaker 1: edge over them and the Seahawks. Rams have beaten them twice,

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Speaker 1: so things are very very good. One other LA note,

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Speaker 1: very very interesting. Keep your eye on the Dodgers with

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Speaker 1: the potential massive another massive signing tonight. Instant reaction. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk to Chad Millman Sharper Square. I got a story

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Speaker 1: I gotta tell you. Hello, Chad Milman, Sharper Square, I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of a heater. I don't want to brag about it.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, how much of a heater?

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Speaker 1: Four straight winning weeks four and one. Last week I

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Speaker 1: had a little bit of an early Denver Bronco, Sean Payton,

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson September slump. But shit is rolling downhill now.

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Speaker 1: I'm like McVeigh and Stafford and Puka Nakua.

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Speaker 2: Here's the thing. No matter how successful you are and

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Speaker 2: whatever field you're in, Yeah, when you're winning bets, it

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Speaker 2: just like the whole day is brighter. And I say

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Speaker 2: that like it just it doesn't matter how much you're

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Speaker 2: wagering on it. You just feel good. Last week we

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Speaker 2: do our podcast on Sunday nights at seven point thirty.

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Speaker 2: Normally I am biting fingernails and sweating until seven twenty

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Speaker 2: nine because I don't know how our day is going

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Speaker 2: to end because of all the games that matter so much.

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Speaker 2: Last week we were so locked in at seven o'clock.

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Speaker 2: I was doing dishes because like it was like I

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Speaker 2: was done, it was over, and it just it felt lovely.

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Speaker 1: It does. There's nothing better. By the way, before we

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Speaker 1: get into our picks. I'm not a spender.

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Speaker 2: I don't.

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Speaker 1: I've never had a second car. Most of my car

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Speaker 1: has been used. I'm not a country club guy.

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Speaker 2: Second houses, however, those are investments.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not a spender. But I and my wife,

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Speaker 1: So I gotta tell you a funny story. So once

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Speaker 1: a year I take my wife to Beverly Hills for

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Speaker 1: a couple of nights before Christmas and we go look

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Speaker 1: at the lights, We have a lovely dinner, and we

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Speaker 1: just have fun. It's really a neat weekend for us.

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Speaker 1: And so on Friday, I said, you know, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: make an effort here. We're gonna go out tonight. I'm gonna,

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Speaker 1: you know, go get a nice pair of like, you know,

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Speaker 1: slacks or something. And and so I go to this

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Speaker 1: store and I don't know, you know, it's it's uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's Beverly Hills. You know there's no Target there, right,

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Speaker 1: so I know.

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Speaker 2: Also there's no price tags on any of the clothes.

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Speaker 1: No, no, So I go buy a pair, a couple

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Speaker 1: pair of jeans. And they're nice jeans. I mean they're

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Speaker 1: not LEVI five oh one nice, but they're nice. Right,

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Speaker 1: So I go and buy jeans, and then I buy

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Speaker 1: a couple of shirts, and you know we've done well.

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Speaker 1: I'm not somebody who sits at a grocery store and

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Speaker 1: you know, or a restaurant counts the check. I've done well, whatever,

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Speaker 1: So I put it in my pocket. You know the

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Speaker 1: check salesman's great. But on my phone, like five minutes

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Speaker 1: after I buy in my AMEX card, it pops up.

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Speaker 1: So I'm walking across the street. I spent thirteen hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars for a pair of jeans. No, bro, I haven't

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Speaker 1: thrown up since I was like seven. I was convulsing

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Speaker 1: at the intersection. I My wife started laughing. She thought

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Speaker 1: it was the funniest thing ever. She's like, you're sick

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Speaker 1: to your stomach. I'm like sick to my stomach. I

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Speaker 1: can't do anything. This weekend, We're going to the waffle house.

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Speaker 1: I'll fly with Lana. I'm not eating.

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Speaker 2: Are they stitched in gold?

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Speaker 1: I haven't taken them off. I sleep and getting every

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Speaker 1: goddamn penny out of those things. I told my wife,

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Speaker 1: I'm wearing those six times a week for ten years

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Speaker 1: to get the money back.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna be the most comfortable jeans you've ever had,

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Speaker 2: even if they're terrible.

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Speaker 1: So my wife looks at the tag and and my

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Speaker 1: wife kind of knows this stuff, and she goes, oh

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Speaker 1: Jesus blank. She calls her daughter. She goes, Colin just

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Speaker 1: pair bought a pair of jeans. Guess who he bought

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Speaker 1: them from? She names it, and I can hear my

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Speaker 1: stepdaughter howling laughing. She's like, how much it cost?

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Speaker 2: A thousand?

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Speaker 1: And like, uh so there, ladies. And you know my

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Speaker 1: takeaway is I'll get used out of them.

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Speaker 2: I'm fine.

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Speaker 1: But do you know there are people that do that

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Speaker 1: every day. They go shop there every.

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Speaker 2: Every day. Yeah. I once did that before, like and it.

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Speaker 2: I went to Barney's. I had to go to a

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Speaker 2: wedding and I knew at the wedding Barney's. I knew

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Speaker 2: at the wedding. I knew at the wedding that the

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Speaker 2: girl who was best friends with my girlfriend in college

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Speaker 2: was going to be there. And I wanted to look

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Speaker 2: as good as I could. I was gonna be with Stacy.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to look as good as I could because

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Speaker 2: I knew she was going to report back. So I

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Speaker 2: go to Barney's. I buy this suit. It's like perfect

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Speaker 2: off the rack. It was well north to thirteen hundred dollars.

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Speaker 2: I had no business buying this suit because I was

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Speaker 2: not making thirteen hundred dollars. And I buy it. I'm

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Speaker 2: feeling good. My wife is making fun of me. She's like,

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Speaker 2: you're an idiot. We get to the wedding. The my

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Speaker 2: ex girlfriend's best friend bailed on the wedding, never showed up.

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Speaker 2: I got this suit. I looked amazing. I never. I've

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Speaker 2: decided since then, I cannot spend a lot of money

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Speaker 2: on clothes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well I don't look good in clothes. I don't,

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Speaker 1: so you know stuff you don't.

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Speaker 2: I wear Colin. I wear my my hoodie from the

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Speaker 2: Volume podcast network. That's what I wear. That's all I

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Speaker 2: need so much, And I think, but by the way,

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Speaker 2: I might have gotten this for free.

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Speaker 1: You and I have similarities. We've done well. We love gambling.

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Speaker 1: We have both have our wives look like sisters. They're

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Speaker 1: both beautiful, beautiful, beautiful, red haired, beautiful women. Tolerant women, yes,

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Speaker 1: and we are adverse to big spending. Although I do

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Speaker 1: look you probably like I like nice vacation. All spend

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Speaker 1: I tell my kids education and experiences all tell that.

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Speaker 1: You know what's not on that list?

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Speaker 2: Jeans No, No, definitely not when when when my wife

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Speaker 2: was an architecture school and I was working at ESPN,

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Speaker 2: the magazine, and I was making not a lot of money,

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Speaker 2: and we were living in New York City and we

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Speaker 2: had just gotten married. And my wife, who grew up

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Speaker 2: on Staten Island, her mom was a teacher, her dad

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Speaker 2: was an architect. Very lovely lifestyle, but it was not

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Speaker 2: like an extravagant lifestyle, right. I got the credit card

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Speaker 2: after we got married, and we're spending together now and

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Speaker 2: she's an architecture school and she had spent like four

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Speaker 2: hundred dollars on a pair of jeans. I'm like, what

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Speaker 2: is going on here? And she's like, I just needed

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Speaker 2: the genes. They just they were things that I needed

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Speaker 2: in that moment. Sure I could. I didn't want to

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Speaker 2: argue with it because it was still early in our life.

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Speaker 1: I used to be when I used to be a

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Speaker 1: hoarder and kind of a financial horder, like you know

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Speaker 1: x y, I would laugh. She's like, you're going to

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Speaker 1: be the richest dead guy ever. And then I met Anne,

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Speaker 1: and Anne has certain needs and she needed me to spend,

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Speaker 1: which is fine because she's beautiful and it makes me

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Speaker 1: really happy. But yeah, things have changed. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: go so good week. I'm gonna give you the stuff

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Speaker 1: and I almost know where you're gonna go with these

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Speaker 1: I feel so I'm gonna take the Steelers plus two

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Speaker 1: at the Bengals. Pittsburgh gets a second look at a

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Speaker 1: backup quarterback. They're a desperate team, veteran coach, great as

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Speaker 1: an underdog, they are a cornered animal. Steelers plus two

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Speaker 1: Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Totally sharp. This was a two and a half. It

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Speaker 2: got bumped down. Look, you have a couple of advantages.

297
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Speaker 2: One no Jamar Chase. Two buying or selling very high

298
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Speaker 2: in the Bengals, buying very low on the Steelers. Three

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Speaker 2: no Dj Reader And that is a huge deal in

300
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Speaker 2: the middle of the defensive line for the Bengals. Not

301
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Speaker 2: only is he great again, it's the run. He's phenomenal

302
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Speaker 2: against the past. So you're really going to be limiting

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Speaker 2: your pass rush capabilities against Mason Rudolph. And don't think like,

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Speaker 2: all right, we're going from Kenny Pikett to Mitch Trubisky

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Speaker 2: to Mason Rudolph. He's been all the same. They're all

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Speaker 2: the same. They're the same quarterback and then you just

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Speaker 2: mentioned the most important thing. Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as

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Speaker 2: a dog, most profitable coach the past twenty years, Mike

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Speaker 2: Tomlin as a dog at home, Mike Tomlin as a

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Speaker 2: dog in the division, Mike Tomlin as a dog late

311
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Speaker 2: in the year, Mike Tomlin as a dog off a

312
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Speaker 2: loss of more than seven. Like every category, it starts

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Speaker 2: at sixty percent and gets up to ninety percent. No

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Speaker 2: joke against the spread. So yes, the wise guys, they're

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Speaker 2: going to be on the steers.

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Speaker 1: I'm not getting the best number at Peckham. I thought

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Speaker 1: it was one of the bets of the year. I'll

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Speaker 1: take Dallas plus one and a half at the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: I have a theory very good teams who are physically

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Speaker 1: humiliated on big TV games come back the following week.

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Speaker 1: It's not just losing, it's being humiliated, physically pushed around.

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Speaker 1: And Dallas is a physical team. Miami's not.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I do think they generate since Week five a very

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Speaker 1: nice pass for us. That's a Fangio defense. But I

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Speaker 1: think Dallas has something to prove. I think they were embarrassed.

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Speaker 1: I think they're a good football team. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: take Dallas to win by about a touchdown plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half here Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the wise guys are on the Cowboys. This opened

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Speaker 2: it too. It's been bet down. There's places where it's

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Speaker 2: one you mentioned pick them as well, like it would

333
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,440
Speaker 2: not surprise me and some of the rumblings I've heard

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Speaker 2: in the market from professional betters if Dallas ended up

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Speaker 2: as the favorite in this game. So I will say

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Speaker 2: it's very important you get Dallas as an underdog if

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Speaker 2: you like them, because the trends start to work against

338
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Speaker 2: you if they become the favorite in terms of covering.

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Speaker 2: So you want to get them at the plus number.

340
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Speaker 2: But for all the reasons you said, like, there are

341
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Speaker 2: a lot of trends that will back up the idea

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Speaker 2: that when you are a team that has been blown

343
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Speaker 2: out and then you are going on the road again

344
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:02,719
Speaker 2: as an underdog, you are the team that people should

345
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Speaker 2: be backing. So in agreement so far, two for two

346
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Speaker 2: Kyle Cowhart.

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00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 1: The number has been bumped up. All of our odds

348
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,680
Speaker 1: provided by Draft Kings. I'm talking to Chad Milman CCO

349
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: Action Network Patriots plus seven at the Broncos Weather could

350
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 1: be crappy. Seven's a lot of points Denver. Can Nicholan

351
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 1: dime you. Bailey Zappi is okay, He's not great. But

352
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Speaker 1: my takeaway is this is a low scoring, ugly, crappy

353
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Speaker 1: weather game. At six, I would probably stay away. At seven,

354
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Speaker 1: I would take New England. That's a lot of points

355
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 1: in lousy weather. We've had huge rain through southern California.

356
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,399
Speaker 1: It's all moving into the mountains Denver, Colorado. Over the

357
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 1: next two to three days, Patriots plus seven sharper square sharp.

358
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Speaker 2: Ish like, there's a lot better games on the board.

359
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 2: There's not a huge edge with the Patriots at plus seven.

360
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:59,159
Speaker 2: The challenge for this game is that the Broncos prior

361
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,880
Speaker 2: to last week had been living off of turnover. Yes,

362
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 2: that's how they were winning these games. Right, stuff always

363
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 2: even out, It always evens out, except they're playing Bailey Zappi.

364
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,159
Speaker 2: So what is the formula for winning for the Broncos.

365
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 2: They're playing bad quarterbacks and getting turnovers. So what are

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Speaker 2: they getting they're getting? I would argue Bailey Zappi is

367
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 2: not a good quarterback in bad weather, in altitude, in

368
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 2: a hostile situation. This is Taylor made to be a

369
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 2: turnover masterpiece for the Denver Broncos. Look at what happened

370
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 2: last week with the Chiefs. Right, the Patriots were in

371
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 2: position to keep that game close. They come out of

372
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 2: the locker room. Bailey Zappi second throw, he's rolling out,

373
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 2: throws it directly to a Chiefs defensive back like doesn't

374
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 2: even There's not even a Patriots receiver there. And that

375
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 2: is going to happen two or three times in a game,

376
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 2: and a couple of those times, at least one of

377
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 2: those times, the Broncos are going to the ball, and

378
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 2: that's going to be the way the game changes. I

379
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 2: would not be comfortable betting the Patriots in the spot.

380
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:06,680
Speaker 2: I would bet the under though.

381
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 1: All Right, one more dog Ravens plus five and a

382
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,439
Speaker 1: half at the Niners. They're a bit beat up, but

383
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 1: Harbaugh's an underdog. NFC teams facing for the first time

384
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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. Now, the Niners have excellent linebackers, Twitchy Fred Warner.

385
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 1: They should be able to be more than competent against Lamar.

386
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 1: But if you've never faced him and you don't have

387
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 1: anybody in practice to duplicate it, it can be an avalanche.

388
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 1: Five and a half is a silly number. This is

389
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: a very close, physical game, hard to run on the Ravens.

390
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,120
Speaker 1: I'm taking the points all day here. I think it's

391
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: a good game. I like the Niners. Five and a

392
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 1: half seems almost disrespectful Sharper square.

393
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the wise guys are on the Ravens. Here,

394
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 2: I will say I'm conflicted. I'm conflicted because a I've

395
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: got a decent sized bet on Christian McCaffrey at twenty

396
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 2: five to one to win the MVP. And let's face it,

397
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 2: this is the v people, right, you got Rock Purty

398
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 2: at about minus two hundred, you got Lamar Jackson at

399
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,640
Speaker 2: about three to one, and depending on the book, you've

400
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 2: got Christian McCaffrey is the third shortest odds or Dak

401
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 2: Prescott or Dak Prescott's third shortest, and McCaffrey is four shortest.

402
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: So in my heart of hearts, what I'm hoping for

403
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 2: is Christian McCaffrey is dominant, and that the Niners win

404
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 2: the game, and that the next two weeks it's just

405
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 2: a coronation for Christian McCaffrey, and I win my Christian

406
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 2: McCaffrey twenty five to one MVP bet. The problem is

407
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 2: that everything you just said Lamar Jackson against the NFC.

408
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,439
Speaker 2: That's not a sort of quirky to take sixteen and

409
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 2: one anomaly. It's because there's nobody like Lamar Jackson that

410
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 2: these NFC teams can prepare when they are playing him

411
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 2: number two. There are like some concerns. I haven't seen

412
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 2: the injury reports from today, but look, I'msted and Hargrave

413
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 2: on the defensive line for the Niners. When they were

414
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,640
Speaker 2: missing last week, the Cardinals gained nearly four hundred, right,

415
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,400
Speaker 2: and they kept it close. So, and we also don't

416
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 2: know about Leonore is he going to be playing in

417
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,640
Speaker 2: the defensive backfield. When he started to play that defensive

418
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 2: backfield was much better. So I do think there are

419
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 2: some concerns, but I generally think the wise guys are

420
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: looking at this and saying, the public is so high

421
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 2: in the Niners, And there are reasons to be high

422
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 2: in the Niners. Right. They are undefeated when Deebo, Samuel

423
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 2: and Trent Williams are playing, and they are beating teams

424
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 2: by double digits, they are a legit team. I do

425
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 2: believe the Niners will win the Super Bowl, and I

426
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 2: do believe we will look back on this team and

427
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,199
Speaker 2: think it is historically great for the past generation with

428
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 2: the combination of Kyle Shanahan. Who you think this? I

429
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 2: think this. A lot of people who cover football think this.

430
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 2: He's a brilliant coach who has had bad injury luck

431
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 2: and not exactly the perfect people for what is an

432
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 2: incredible system. And I think he has that. He's had

433
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 2: luck on his side for health. But I think this

434
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 2: week the Ravens are probably going to be the sharp side.

435
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: All right, Tampa Bay, Let's go to some favorites minus

436
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 1: one and a half. C J. Bether probably plays Jacksonville's

437
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 1: in a funk. Trevor Lawrence is banged up. I don't

438
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 1: think he's been healthy in three weeks. We have to

439
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:12,439
Speaker 1: be honest about this. Baker Mayfield, with weapons and reasonable protections,

440
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: the best quarterback in his division. He plays with a

441
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: great deal of confidence and emotion. I think he feels

442
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,679
Speaker 1: really good right now. Todd Bowles is letting him kind

443
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 1: of control the offense. I knows they're a favorite. I

444
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: tend to like dogs, but CJ. Bethard is an average

445
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 1: average backup. I'm gonna take the Buck Sharper square.

446
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 2: No real consensus on what side is the right side here.

447
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 2: The Bucks were two and a half point underdogs when

448
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 2: this game opened, before we had the insight on Trevor Lawrence.

449
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 2: I will say what's interesting here. Baker Mayfield no joke.

450
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 2: He was elite against the Green Bay Packers, like I think.

451
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 2: He was twenty one of twenty eight north of three

452
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: hundred yards, four touchdowns, and all season long, the wise

453
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 2: guys have been backing the Bucks, and the Bucks have

454
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 2: been one of those teams where for three quarters they're amazing,

455
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 2: but there'll be four or five drives in the game

456
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 2: where Mike Evans drops a ball or Baker throws a pick,

457
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 2: and like it just puts the game a little bit

458
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 2: out of reach for them. But they've generally played really,

459
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 2: really well. So I can't fault you for liking Baker

460
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 2: in this spot. It's a scary spot because you're also

461
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 2: backing Baker after he was just as good as he's

462
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 2: ever been, I know. But with CJ. Bether, yeah, you're

463
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 2: taking a short home favorite.

464
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to games. I want you to

465
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 1: talk me into So I have two rules in life.

466
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: Number one, don't do math no winners. Number two, always

467
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 1: take a team favored by four because the odds makers

468
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: are telling you, we'd rather do three. That's what we

469
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,479
Speaker 1: want to do. We can't. This team's better ram tonight.

470
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: They're just better than the Saints. It'll be a coaching mismatch.

471
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 1: Now it's down at three and a half. But at four,

472
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 1: I thought it was a great bet Bears minus four

473
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 1: to four and a half. I have been betting best

474
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: quarterback in games. But I think eber Flus is coaching

475
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 1: for his job. I don't think Arizona's guy's coaching for

476
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: a job. I think Justin Field is playing for his job.

477
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: This is a big game, a dome team going to

478
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 1: crappy weather. It'll be it won't be a blizzard. The

479
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 1: weather is kind of unseasonably mild in the Midwest. But

480
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,640
Speaker 1: I think the urgency and intensity here. Also remember last

481
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: year how teams after they played the Niners like all lost.

482
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: We're not tracking it this year as much, and the

483
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,199
Speaker 1: numbers aren't the same, but when you play, when you

484
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: play San Francisco, there are repercussions. They're a really physical team.

485
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 1: I think Arizona played spirited football. It's a really bad roster.

486
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 1: The Bears aren't a bad roster. I want to take

487
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: Chicago Sharper Square.

488
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 2: Aw Square. The wise guys are on the Cardinals. The

489
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:06,919
Speaker 2: game was at four and a half, it got that

490
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 2: down to four. I'd actually take it one step further.

491
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 2: I don't think Ebra Fluis is playing for his job.

492
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 2: I think he's auditioning for his next coordinator job. I

493
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 2: think Justin Fields is auditioning for the next team he's

494
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 2: going to play on. I think that as a Bears fan,

495
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 2: we saw what we saw last week against the Browns

496
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 2: in that second half where Justin Fields was like seven

497
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 2: of nineteen for sixty yards, and that offense was not

498
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 2: able to execute. And at some point that's on the

499
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 2: quarterback and his inability to find the right receivers and so,

500
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 2: and on the coach for coaching a defense that gave

501
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 2: up the game to Joe Flacco and had a ten

502
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,239
Speaker 2: point lead. There's a stat that we had that we

503
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: were talking about on the favorite podcast, The Bears. I

504
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 2: think this season, or or of only the last two seasons,

505
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: have had ten point leads in the fourth quarter six times.

506
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 2: They're three and three. Everybody else in the league the

507
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 2: past two seasons something like ninety three and one. Literally,

508
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 2: it's like a ninety three percent win rates. So there's

509
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 2: a lot of issues with that Bears team. I think

510
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 2: that what we got in the Cardinals is a team

511
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 2: that is just always going to be undervalued. And I

512
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 2: don't think if you look at the market, there's going

513
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: to be any professional better who says, oh, yeah, I'm

514
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 2: comfortable betting the Bears as more than a field goal favorite,

515
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 2: which is why the line moved down. Also, don't forget

516
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray against the spread on the road fifteen and five.

517
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 2: So you're talking about a guy who was very good

518
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 2: at covering the spread, and by the way, he also

519
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 2: covered it last weekend that number was bouncing around. So

520
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 2: I like what. I like what Kyler Murray can do here?

521
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 2: All right?

522
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 1: Finally, dumpster dive. What's something that I would probably be

523
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: appalled with, but you think is pretty tasty. I mean

524
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: you all say this, I thought about Eagles minus twelve,

525
00:28:58,800 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: they're bound to win.

526
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think look in any other scenario, you're looking

527
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 2: at Raiders plus ten against the Chiefs, you're looking at

528
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 2: Giants plus twelve against the Eagles. I'm not going to

529
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: ask you to do those things. I'm not going to

530
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 2: do those things this week. I think there's a lot

531
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 2: of wonkingition in those games, and I think professional betters

532
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 2: are sort of divided on really betting those numbers. They're

533
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:28,479
Speaker 2: not really looking to do it. Can I interest you

534
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 2: in the Atlanta Falcons minus one? Yeah?

535
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 1: But by the way MacIntyre's on this, he's like, that's

536
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 1: the sharp side this week.

537
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 2: It is. I mean, look that number I bet. I

538
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 2: bet Atlanta at plus two and a half. And I

539
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 2: know what I said. I said, you got to be

540
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 2: wary of those games that bounce from the one side

541
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 2: as the underdog is now the favorite. But the Colts

542
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 2: are really kind of frauds. And I don't like Shane Steichen.

543
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 2: He should be getting votes for Coach of the Year

544
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 2: what he has done with that team, what he's done

545
00:29:59,920 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 2: with Gardner Minshew, who I think had won two games

546
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 2: as a starter before this season, Like he has put

547
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 2: them in a position. But also you've got to think

548
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 2: about the teams they've beaten during the streak that they've

549
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 2: been on have not been very good. And now, if

550
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:16,959
Speaker 2: you want to talk about a coach who is coaching

551
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: for his job, you're talking about Arthur Smith, and he's

552
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 2: putting Taylor Heineke back in there. Also because the Colt's

553
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 2: defense is just trash, like they can't really stop the run.

554
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 2: They were good before Grover Stewart went on his ped suspension.

555
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 2: They haven't been good since they're in the middle of

556
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 2: transitioning that defense. It's just not a very good defense,

557
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 2: so I think. And also the Falcons offensive line, which

558
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 2: was really injured. They had many players who were out

559
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 2: or questionable heading into the game against the Panthers back

560
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 2: at home on turf, Arthur Smith is going to have

561
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: to be as creative as he possibly can to keep

562
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: this team in the hunt. I like the Falcons here.

563
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: There's one more that I like, probably not worth your time.

564
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 2: It's a corner team game. Are you ready? Tennessee Titans

565
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 2: y plus two and a half? Yeah?

566
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: Well, the way Seattle won, people fall in love with

567
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 1: their They really have some really fun young athletes. But

568
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: Vrabel at home, they're getting what three? What is it now?

569
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 2: Two and a half? Did it move to three? I

570
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:20,239
Speaker 2: haven't even noticed? Did it?

571
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 1: It may have moved to three.

572
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 2: I'm checking right now. If it did, all the better

573
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 2: then go get go get that three, because that's that's

574
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: the game that the wise guys love and I know

575
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 2: it sounds.

576
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 1: They like Tennessee plus two and a half. That's the

577
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: that's they love it, love it. Why explain love so.

578
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 2: On the team that just had the dramatic win in

579
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 2: prime time by the team that just had the devastating loss.

580
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 2: Mike Vrabel as an underdog. He's twenty six and twenty

581
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 2: eight straight up as an underdog, right Like, this is

582
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: a guy who just wins when he is counted out

583
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 2: and his team is not supposed to win, let alone

584
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 2: in the amount of time that he covers as an underdog.

585
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: Him and Tomlin are the two guys that wise guys

586
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: love to cover. They love to cover in these exact spots,

587
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 2: like to bet on in these exact spots. So yeah,

588
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 2: the wise guys are digging themselves. Some Tennessee Titans.

589
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: Chad Millman, Happy Holidays CEO Action Network ALLLDGS provided by Draftking.

590
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: Great talking to you, buddy.

591
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 2: Great seeing you too, brother. Happy Holidays to you and

592
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 2: the entire crew.

593
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: The volume