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Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by Fandoel. It might be cold,

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Speaker 1: in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight eight nine

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Speaker 1: called one eight five to two four seven zero zero

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Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www Dot one gambler dot net

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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from

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Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. I am Shad Milman, Chief Content

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Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as I

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Speaker 1: am in every episode by my bff, my companion Mike

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Speaker 1: and Padre professional Better Simmon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in

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Speaker 1: What's brother? Listen? There's a lot a lot. So we

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Speaker 1: took a bye last week in the contest as is

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Speaker 1: required unfortunate Lee. We like to take a bye in

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Speaker 1: the contest and then hypothetically, you know, talk about the

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Speaker 1: picks we're gonna put in and hope that they go

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Speaker 1: terribly wrong. This week, the five picks we made that

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Speaker 1: you put out on Twitter that we would have made

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Speaker 1: went three and two, And the truth is, uh, we

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Speaker 1: probably would have dropped one of those games and play

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Speaker 1: something else and we probably would have gone four and one.

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Speaker 1: Uh So that's a bummer because who likes to miss

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Speaker 1: a week when we know we're gonna win. And we'll

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Speaker 1: break that down in a second. Let me table set

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Speaker 1: Foxhole we had the Broncos plus nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: One Simon says, Giants plus seven did not go our way.

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Speaker 1: Exact decision. The Lines minus two and a half nailed it,

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Speaker 1: big Balls, Chargers plus three and a half nailed it.

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Speaker 1: Scooch Roulette, you had the Chargers the Broncos. So like,

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Speaker 1: we just had another crushing week. It was good, but

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Speaker 1: we gotta be careful, right had pride comes right before

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Speaker 1: the fall, so cometh before the fall. I gotta stay

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Speaker 1: the course. Um. One of those weeks that we just

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Speaker 1: it's tough that we had to do. By week we

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Speaker 1: kind of knew we we we knew we had games

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Speaker 1: we loved. Um. My hope was, you know, the public

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Speaker 1: would maybe catch one, just because we were on a

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Speaker 1: lot of public sides when we saw the charts the money, Um,

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Speaker 1: we love the Jets. The Jets were one of the

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Speaker 1: most bet sides. Like that was one of the bigger,

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Speaker 1: big games of Sunday that that was like flukey, you

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Speaker 1: could say it was fluky, but we had a safety

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Speaker 1: and a few about the end of the game to

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Speaker 1: cover that number. That's just not how you draw it up,

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Speaker 1: but we say it to people at the time. You

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Speaker 1: just I get what people were like. You know, they

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Speaker 1: can get mad about that Giants game, but that's how

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Speaker 1: it is when you're playing the numbers in a model

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Speaker 1: where I don't want to say jail and hurts his

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Speaker 1: neo from the matrix, but he kind of is. He

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Speaker 1: kind of breaks the mold where the mahomes throwing Pete

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Speaker 1: three interceptions and having a bad game against Denver and

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Speaker 1: the so Denick cat backdoor that cover. That's what I

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Speaker 1: thought was gonna happen that Eagles game. It's just like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: Eagles should win this game, but it's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: close game. It's a divisional game, they're on the road.

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Speaker 1: But he went next level, I mean fourth and seventh

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Speaker 1: throwing a touchdown. That's what I knew. That Giants game

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Speaker 1: was just gone. So that's where it was a good

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Speaker 1: week for people that play models. Played big dogs. We

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Speaker 1: just played the numbers and it's like we talked about,

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Speaker 1: we didn't feel great about that Broncos game. You said,

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Speaker 1: you've got a lot of hate online from people getting

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Speaker 1: upset before bets, even at halftime when it was twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: Nothing where I didn't know that was the score. I

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Speaker 1: honestly didn't watch that game, stayed away from it just

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Speaker 1: because I knew it was gonna be stressful. I can't

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Speaker 1: believe the reason we covered that game is Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 1: The fact that he drew a pick six and was

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Speaker 1: able to come back in that game is the definition

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Speaker 1: of just play the numbers, don't don't, don't think about

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Speaker 1: the teams, don't think about the names. Just play. Play

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Speaker 1: what you know is getting you to this where we're

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Speaker 1: at now, which is playing ugly dogs. So good weekend

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Speaker 1: for the fans of the show and for us betting personally.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, sucked. We we took a bioweek in a

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Speaker 1: week we crushed in the contest. Uh you mentioned the

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Speaker 1: Broncos game. I'm actually astonished at this. You know, me

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Speaker 1: and you and Matt Mitchell we don't text on Sundays

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Speaker 1: during the games because a bad juju. But be you

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Speaker 1: remember when what happened the one time I let you

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Speaker 1: calling me on a Sunday. I don't want to talk

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Speaker 1: about it, so uh A, it's bad juju. B. We've

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Speaker 1: been around long enough to know these games can go

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Speaker 1: sideways one way or the other. So fast In my

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Speaker 1: Twitter timeline, filled up with people who were just ripping

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Speaker 1: me for the Broncos. And I want to be like,

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Speaker 1: if you're a sports fan, you know better than to

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Speaker 1: go after someone in the middle of a game. If

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Speaker 1: you've ever made a bet in your life, you know

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Speaker 1: better than to go after someone in the middle of

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Speaker 1: a game. And by the way, if you're ripping me,

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Speaker 1: I would only assume that European because you took the

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Speaker 1: Broncos too, and in the end it worked out great

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Speaker 1: for us. So are you are you now apologizing to me? Um?

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Speaker 1: Number one? Number two? You and I joke about this

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Speaker 1: all the time. People in Miami. A few weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: we said if we were going to fade any team

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Speaker 1: down the stretch right now, we'd fade Miami. And I

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Speaker 1: think that was heading I forgot which game that was

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Speaker 1: heading into, maybe the Niners. And and we're like a

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Speaker 1: lot of games on the road. Their schedule has been

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Speaker 1: pretty easy. Two has looked great against bad teams. The

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Speaker 1: last six weeks of the year. They got a tough

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Speaker 1: road to how literally, on the road against really good defenses.

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Speaker 1: Broncho has been blown out two weeks in a row. Um,

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Speaker 1: I'm not looking good doing it right? So we had

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Speaker 1: the Chargers. Big ball. People. We want to remind you

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Speaker 1: of one more thing. I got a really good life.

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Speaker 1: I don't live with hate. I don't. I don't live

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Speaker 1: with hate. I don't live with jealousy. I don't give

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Speaker 1: a funk about the Vikings. Okay, I don't make bets

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Speaker 1: against the Vikings because emotionally I don't like the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: I could care less about the Vikings. I make the

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Speaker 1: bet on the number. I make the bet based on

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Speaker 1: what we discussed. I make the best of what we see.

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Speaker 1: I bet against the Vikings every week because they're overrated.

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Speaker 1: That's it. Like I love the Bears. That's great. When

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Speaker 1: the Bears win or lose, the end of that day,

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Speaker 1: I'm done with it. I'm not thinking, oh, well, I

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Speaker 1: gotta bet against the Viking because I hate the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: That's for other people. Well, sir, thank you. Meanwhile, we

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Speaker 1: gotta get back to it. We gotta get back on

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Speaker 1: the horse. We gotta out. We gotta why both no

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Speaker 1: more buys four weeks left the home more guys four

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Speaker 1: weeks left, and look, we got to find a way

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Speaker 1: to make up some ground because during the bye we

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Speaker 1: lost one more game. So the guy is leaving the

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Speaker 1: contest the last five weeks. That's not even a joke.

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Speaker 1: So we're now five games back where top one d

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Speaker 1: out of four thousand people. Um, but we got to

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Speaker 1: find a way to close it out this last month.

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Speaker 1: We got to close it out strong. First game up

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Speaker 1: Thursday night, Seattle Seahawks, uh three and a half against

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Speaker 1: the Niners. We don't like to bet Thursdays, but dude, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I we might have to chat. This is a pretty

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Speaker 1: good scenario. It's it's another home dog in a divisional

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Speaker 1: game and a team that I feel like everyone has

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Speaker 1: completely gotten off the boat the Seahawks, that that that

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Speaker 1: was his worst game, that was his worst game of

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Speaker 1: the year against that Carolina d and a game full

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Speaker 1: of people for saying, well the four has even better

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Speaker 1: version of that Carolina's defense. And we know that McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: has been out of this world for his fourtwners team,

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Speaker 1: and then they've been running the ball so well. Um

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Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks. I mean we and not

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Speaker 1: that I I was bashing Jimmy G, but I just

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Speaker 1: said Jimmy G wasn't worth two the four now as

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Speaker 1: much as people really thought he was where he was

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Speaker 1: just mostly a game manager. I only moved him, moved

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Speaker 1: a half a point when Brock took over. That was

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Speaker 1: like literally the only difference I saw of it. Now

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Speaker 1: it's equal. I still might be a little too under

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Speaker 1: rating brock Purty here, Like that was a really good

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Speaker 1: game by him. He ran the ball, he had some

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Speaker 1: good throws, and he was able to read a defense,

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Speaker 1: which I still can't believe he was able to do. Um,

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Speaker 1: just because of what he's coming from, he's the last

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Speaker 1: pick in the draft. Usually these guys have major flaws. Um,

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Speaker 1: Kyle's hiding his flaws right now, but he's going up

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Speaker 1: against the Seahawks team that Pete does really well against

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Speaker 1: Kyle and this offense. Historically, the Seahawks even the last

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Speaker 1: five games, you go back there four and one straight

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Speaker 1: up against his FOURT howners team, and that's when Jimmy

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Speaker 1: was healthy and plane. Now they've got a young kid

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Speaker 1: in there in a spot that's just such a short turnaround.

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Speaker 1: That's my biggest thing to me is the fact that

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Speaker 1: not only do I like the match up for the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks offense, I think this is kind of the same

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Speaker 1: thing where they're gonna spread it out and they'll be

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Speaker 1: able to throw the ball through the air against the

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Speaker 1: sport ours team. But the fact that it's a short

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Speaker 1: week and the Seahawks had such a bad loss at

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Speaker 1: home on this short week just a couple of days ago.

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Speaker 1: The fort the other side, they just blew out Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay like they're gonna definitely be feeling good Monday, still

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Speaker 1: be thinking a little bit about that game on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: and then maybe get their head turned around for Seattle

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Speaker 1: by Wednesday. We look at the flip side, it's like

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Speaker 1: the seat treat to turn the page. They're they're like,

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Speaker 1: all right, let's get over that one. Now. We're playing

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Speaker 1: for our division here. And that's what this kind of is.

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Speaker 1: This is like a divisional whoever wins this, you know,

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Speaker 1: has the potential to win this division and that and

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks need this to make the playoffs. So there's

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Speaker 1: a bunch of things I like about. But the biggest

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Speaker 1: one is I make this line too. It's three and

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Speaker 1: a half just because of what we just talked about.

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Speaker 1: The Seahawks. They laid in a complete egg while the

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Speaker 1: forty is completely blew out of team. You're getting free

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Speaker 1: points here it's another week of you just have to

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Speaker 1: kind of take these three points. In fact, that's an

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Speaker 1: island game. We know the public is going to be

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Speaker 1: pounding the forty nine. I'm gritting the three half now

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Speaker 1: just in case it does drop in the prose take it,

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Speaker 1: but you should be able to get value. Like I

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Speaker 1: just see the public coming in so happy on the

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Speaker 1: fourts here that if everyone's fully healthy, ifficious debo, that's out.

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Speaker 1: This number should be closed at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: So I'm driving out just to be safe because it

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Speaker 1: does drop the three, but I do feel like I'll

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Speaker 1: close the three and a half. Well, I'm glad you

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Speaker 1: put a number on it as and it should be

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Speaker 1: rated at two. It's a Bilow cell Bilow cell high right,

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Speaker 1: Like brock Purty was nearly perfect in the first half

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Speaker 1: against the Bucks, every throw that he needed to make

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Speaker 1: was in the exact right spot. Can you expect those

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Speaker 1: circumstances to replay themselves on Thursday night on a short

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Speaker 1: week on the road in Seattle. Everything lined up for

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Speaker 1: him perfectly the other day. So I agree this is

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Speaker 1: the spot where we've struggled this year on Thursday nights.

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Speaker 1: Do we really want to back the home dog you've

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Speaker 1: smartly been like on the Buffalo side and that Patriots

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Speaker 1: game and a couple of other spots, but it does

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Speaker 1: feel like you're getting the hook. You take the hook, yeah,

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Speaker 1: and just the Usually there is value with going with

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Speaker 1: the favorites on these spots, but I feel like the

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Speaker 1: value is totally shifted in this position where the Shawks,

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Speaker 1: it's just there's just too many points. Now where I

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Speaker 1: do agree the four nine is there is a gap there,

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Speaker 1: there are a better team, But I mean it's that's

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Speaker 1: just so many weeks on our road to put together.

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Speaker 1: Just playing that well, they're gonna get tripped up, and

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Speaker 1: this is the perfect matchup we get tripped up in.

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Speaker 1: It's just a divisional game. You know, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: ugly and close. The fact that we're getting over three

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Speaker 1: and a half, it's like, man, it's something I love.

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Speaker 1: If if this wasn't a Thursday game, this was a

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Speaker 1: Sunday game, this would be one of my bigger bets

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Speaker 1: of the week. But like you just talked about, because

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Speaker 1: the favorites do get a little bit more of a

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Speaker 1: bump on Thursdays, it's giving me a little bit hesitancy

249
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Speaker 1: but the three and a half, it's just such great value.

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Speaker 1: I just can't pass on that. Colts Vikings Colts four

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Speaker 1: and a half. I fucking hate the Vikings. We know that.

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Speaker 1: I started the show explaining that emotionally I'm gonna have

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Speaker 1: to beg against the Vikings, but in reality I love

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Speaker 1: the cults here. The Vikings. The hate we have for

255
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Speaker 1: them isn't the hate of them being overrated, um. The

256
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Speaker 1: hate is their defense isn't good enough to keep getting

257
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Speaker 1: all these points in different matchups where that's that's what's

258
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Speaker 1: holding them back. They just give up tons of yard

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Speaker 1: even when Kirk plays well, their defense is still letting

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Speaker 1: you know, these these no name quarterbacks there for three

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Speaker 1: yards um. So that to me is the struggle for

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Speaker 1: this Vikings team. And yeah, I'm with Chad. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: be back in the Colts here, but we're not bad

264
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Speaker 1: like the String. We need we need a quarterback that

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Speaker 1: can move the ball down field and we're not really

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Speaker 1: getting that here with the Colts. Um that's not really

267
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Speaker 1: Matt Ryan strength. But I feel like Chad's right where

268
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Speaker 1: we have to trust a number that this is a big,

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Speaker 1: big balloon number, and one team that the public hates

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Speaker 1: the Colts and the other side of the Vikings that

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Speaker 1: the people have until last week, and the most part,

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Speaker 1: they've won a lot of money this year back in

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Speaker 1: this Vikings team. So I understand where they're coming from

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Speaker 1: that they want to back the team that wins close games.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of want why I want to take the Colts. Like,

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Speaker 1: even if the Vikings win, which we got no issue

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Speaker 1: with it, We're getting four points. That's that's a big

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Speaker 1: deal in these kind of matchups. So don't know if

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Speaker 1: it will be one of my best five, but I

280
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Speaker 1: do like the value right now sitting there on the Colts. Also,

281
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Speaker 1: by the way, uh, this is a top three luck

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Speaker 1: rankings matchup in favor of the Colts and the luck

283
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Speaker 1: rankings this year we've talked about on the show constantly.

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Speaker 1: If you are getting a luck ranking differential of about

285
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Speaker 1: let me look it up exactly here. Hold on, I apologize.

286
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Speaker 1: If you get a luck ranking differential of um ten

287
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Speaker 1: plus points the r O I on at they're covering

288
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Speaker 1: it a fifty clip sixteen plus points clip the luck

289
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Speaker 1: ranking differential in this game, which essentially is saying, how

290
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Speaker 1: can you quantify regression the luck ranking differential in this

291
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Speaker 1: game is so just bet the Colts, all right, just

292
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Speaker 1: do it, lock it in. It's not personal. We don't

293
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Speaker 1: feel we don't hate the Vikings. We just don't like

294
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Speaker 1: the way they're graded in the market right now, that's

295
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Speaker 1: it fair to say, right Simon. All Right, Um, Ravens

296
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Speaker 1: three point underdogs at the Browns. We whipped on the Browns.

297
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Speaker 1: I should say last week the games we would have had,

298
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Speaker 1: we would have had the Browns at plus six against

299
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Speaker 1: the Bengals. We probably would have had the lines two

300
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Speaker 1: and a half, the Jags four, um, the nine, Ors

301
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Speaker 1: three and a half of Chargers five. So those would

302
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Speaker 1: have been the five. The Browns would have been the

303
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Speaker 1: game that we lost. Yeah, and that was a typical

304
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Speaker 1: I mean you even talked about four in the morning

305
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Speaker 1: where I just didn't understand, Um, I knew the group

306
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Speaker 1: that had took a large position on the Browns. I

307
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Speaker 1: just don't understand the position of you're you're backing Watson

308
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Speaker 1: after we've seen him struggle after two years and not

309
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Speaker 1: playing football, and I saw nothing and read nothing during

310
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Speaker 1: the week that he had looked better in practice anything

311
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Speaker 1: like that, And it just did not make sense to me.

312
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Speaker 1: He felt like they're playing the spot of well, well

313
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Speaker 1: back to the Bengals will struggle offensively and they have

314
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Speaker 1: injuries to their offensive you know, wide receiver group and

315
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 1: every whatever their reasoning was, and I just didn't get it.

316
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Speaker 1: I kind of blindly followed them because I like Cleveland

317
00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:45,920
Speaker 1: that spot of Yeah, I can see them playing this

318
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Speaker 1: game close. But that was just crazy. That was one

319
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Speaker 1: of the biggest bets of the year. I just it

320
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,200
Speaker 1: is just bizarre. These people fall in love a certain games,

321
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Speaker 1: certain picks. So yeah, we saw that game go from

322
00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 1: six down to four. We had six and a half

323
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Speaker 1: in the contest. It was just it's gonna be really

324
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Speaker 1: hard to avoid that one where I knew the guys

325
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Speaker 1: who made the bet respect their opinion, got where they

326
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Speaker 1: are coming from. But Watson, he's been bad. So looking

327
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Speaker 1: at this matchup here, yeah, I want to take Watson.

328
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Speaker 1: I want to take the Browns. That's where the value is.

329
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,119
Speaker 1: But at what cost. We saw last week. If you

330
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Speaker 1: can't move the ball, if you can't make completions on

331
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 1: third downs, it's all irrelevant. You can throw all their

332
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:29,200
Speaker 1: numbers out, it doesn't matter. So I don't trust any

333
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,359
Speaker 1: of my numbers on Watson because it's like all my

334
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 1: stuff is based off who he was two years ago,

335
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Speaker 1: which is a top five quarterback. He really was that

336
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,680
Speaker 1: good people. People might not remember it that way, but

337
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,399
Speaker 1: he was. I mean you could you could drive to

338
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,640
Speaker 1: to Hopkins. I mean that was a big, big key

339
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,199
Speaker 1: to his success over the years as well. But the

340
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 1: players with his feed is is presence in the pocket.

341
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Speaker 1: He was just such a good quarterback. So um, for me,

342
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:55,639
Speaker 1: I love to take Cleveland here. I just can't do

343
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Speaker 1: anything of this game where I really don't know I'm

344
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:58,960
Speaker 1: a going from Watson. So there's just other games I'll

345
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:00,879
Speaker 1: bet this week. I'll just I'll just keep waiting to

346
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 1: see what we have in him. Maybe I'll I'll take

347
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,640
Speaker 1: some Browns bets next year. But for everything I've seen

348
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:07,639
Speaker 1: from Watson, he just does not look the same. He

349
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 1: looked a little lost. So I just want to put

350
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 1: money on that. Yeah, this is one you know we

351
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 1: always talk about, you wanna you want to ride to

352
00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,159
Speaker 1: the peak of the market, and you've got one, then

353
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,199
Speaker 1: you want to get out at that peak. And I

354
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,359
Speaker 1: think we've been trying to play the Browns as we

355
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:26,359
Speaker 1: believe the value in the market was on them because

356
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 1: of Watson, and I don't feel like I need to

357
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 1: keep betting on Watson because I'm expecting him to get

358
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,480
Speaker 1: better in this game. Like I can wait, Like I

359
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:45,560
Speaker 1: can I can pass on this one. Yeah, me as well. Dolphins. Uh,

360
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 1: we said we wanted to start fading the Dolphins. The

361
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,919
Speaker 1: Dolphins are seven and a half point dogs at the Bills.

362
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:53,159
Speaker 1: Who knows what's going to happen with the weather on

363
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,119
Speaker 1: the East Coast this week. I keep getting alltterates about

364
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 1: how terrible it's gonna be. Um, this is a pro

365
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 1: was Joe's game with about seventy of the money coming

366
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 1: in on the Dolphins at plus seven and a half,

367
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 1: but all the bets coming in on the Bills. Yeah.

368
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 1: Interesting matchup of it's a short week. I mean it's

369
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 1: a Saturday night game, so it's a short week, primetime

370
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,920
Speaker 1: game in Buffalo. This usually where Josh Allen does really well, uh,

371
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:23,720
Speaker 1: in these positions, especially at home. So my gut instinct

372
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 1: was you just take the Dolphins, So you take the

373
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Especially we already talked to earlier

374
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 1: there's gonna be snow and no wind. That's a huge advantage,

375
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,680
Speaker 1: especially to a team like Miami that it's all scripted,

376
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 1: like where tiree Hills going, where while are running to.

377
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,280
Speaker 1: Those are just all McDaniel written up plays where they're

378
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 1: all scripts exactly where they're going. That's a huge advantage

379
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 1: of wide receivers. Like the defense that's who needs traction,

380
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 1: they need their backpedaling. They're they're taking weird angles and

381
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 1: stepping in weird angles because they're trying to guess where

382
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 1: our players going. Imagine doing that the tire killing waddle

383
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 1: the two fastest players of football in snow. So yeah,

384
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,239
Speaker 1: this is one of those Chad where we wake up

385
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 1: Sunday morning there is snow or Saturday sorry, Saturday morning,

386
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:04,880
Speaker 1: and there's snow on the ground, and by time kickoff

387
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 1: comes around, I text you at seven o'clock, I'm like, hey,

388
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,639
Speaker 1: there's no win. Should we just take the pointer and

389
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 1: take the seven and a half? I think we do

390
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,960
Speaker 1: it because we've seen Josh Allen since this injury, they've

391
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 1: not been the same, This offense has not been the same.

392
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 1: So um, even with my doubts right now, Miami's defense

393
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 1: man three straight row games. That's a tough position to

394
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,480
Speaker 1: put any team in. But this is one of these games.

395
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,120
Speaker 1: I just can't see them overlooking or having a letdown game,

396
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,640
Speaker 1: which what they had last night or two nights ago

397
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: against the Chargers, and this is not their season, but

398
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 1: kind of right, this is kind of in those games.

399
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 1: It's like, all right, you win this, I could see

400
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 1: you guys get the playoffs. You lose it. It's a tailsman.

401
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,679
Speaker 1: You've lost three straight. It's not getting any easier down

402
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 1: the stretch here. So yeah, an interesting game, interesting number,

403
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 1: A little little stinky that it's seven and a half

404
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 1: because they're sucking me in, like I love that that seven.

405
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,159
Speaker 1: It happened a divisional game here. So this is definitely

406
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 1: one of these games. People. I'm not gonna bet right now,

407
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,239
Speaker 1: or if I do, maybe I'll throw a little on it,

408
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 1: but it's one I need to know exactly what I'm

409
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 1: getting into on Saturday. I need to know the weather.

410
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 1: You know what the lake effects. No is gonna be

411
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 1: all that. That's it's a big deal up there in Buffalo.

412
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: So this is one of these I'm just gonna wait

413
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,719
Speaker 1: and see. I was gonna make it, my Simon says,

414
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna wait now and see. Once I know

415
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 1: the weather, report Simon, Uh, a wise man has said

416
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,679
Speaker 1: to me, and I will share it with you. The

417
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,879
Speaker 1: bookmakers are not our friends. Okay. If they're giving you

418
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 1: seven and a half, there there's something stinky going on. Reminder,

419
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 1: as Matt Mitchell just just slapped me and Simon, and

420
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: Simon pointed out the past three games that we just

421
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 1: talked about, the Vikings and the Colts, the Browns and

422
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 1: the Ravens, UM, the Bills and the Dolphins. Those are

423
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 1: the Saturday eight games. Don't forget three Saturday games now

424
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 1: getting into the Sunday games. Falcons plus four and a

425
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 1: half against um, the Saints not. I don't have a

426
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 1: strong opinion on this one. It's actually at four at

427
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 1: fandor right now, so it's pretty much moved universally. I

428
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 1: think I just don't like, I don't see this being

429
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 1: in our final five, you know, yeah, Like I like

430
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 1: the Saints in the simple fact that it's a rookie

431
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 1: making his first start on the road. UM, I can't

432
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 1: really see this working out for the kid. I mean,

433
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 1: he's played well the different times he's come in. That's

434
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:34,160
Speaker 1: a lot to ask of a kid, especially in the Superdome. UM.

435
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I'm with Chatt here. I don't

436
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 1: really know what to do it with this one. I

437
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 1: might have a better opinion for it on Thursday, but

438
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 1: early indications I I like the Saints, but I just

439
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 1: need more time to fair and what I'm gonna do

440
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 1: with Atlantic team because Marioda did get stagnant there. He

441
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 1: just seemed like the defense has kind of figured him out,

442
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: that kind of wearing this little zone safety on him

443
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 1: where the safety would step up in the middle of

444
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 1: the field, he would get just an inkling, oh the

445
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: hand for him running the ball. They would step up

446
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 1: into the box and just just wasn't working like it

447
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 1: was early in the season when they want all those

448
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: games and we're covering machine. They just haven't been that

449
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,640
Speaker 1: down the stretch here. So um yeah, initial instincts back

450
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 1: any Dalton one PM at home, you fade him in

451
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: primetime games are usually back him at home here. But

452
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 1: just no real read like chat on this game yet.

453
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 1: The bummer for since fans that franchise went from having

454
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: a real attitude and flavor and personality even without Drew

455
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 1: Brees because of Sean Payton, just by virtue of him

456
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 1: being who he is. You got Andy Dalton and Dennis Allen,

457
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: and they are the pitome of a forgettable franchise. Yeah,

458
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: but this is just how football is though, right, It's

459
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 1: just the ups and down. You if you have a

460
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 1: nice tenure run, you're about to go on a nice

461
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 1: little run of hell. But I'll tell you what, this

462
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 1: proves my point. Nobody ever forgets about the Bears because

463
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: the Bears are his store franchise. If the Saints don't

464
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: have anybody in a position to make people think about them,

465
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 1: no one will think about them. The Bears could be

466
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: one of fifteen they're still getting in prime time. The

467
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 1: Saints will never be in prime time on a regular

468
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: basis unless they are a team that has some kind

469
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: of swagger. It as if you guys have been around

470
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: sixty years before the Saints are around. How about that?

471
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 1: I know that's my point. I'm not I'm owning it.

472
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it for any other reason. Speaking of

473
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 1: the Bears, the Bears are nine point underdogs in the

474
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 1: Simon Versus Chad Bowl. We hopping on in the foxhol Well, listen,

475
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 1: you're you know you only love the Eagles and you

476
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,159
Speaker 1: can't see straight unless you know so I'm happy to

477
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 1: jump in the foxhol. I was gonna make this an

478
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 1: e D but you want to get in the foxhole.

479
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 1: Let's get in fucking foxhol. Let's put the Bears a

480
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 1: plus nine to the goddamn foxhole. You know me, regardless

481
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit

482
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: to a team, I commit to a city. I'm a

483
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 1: foxhole guy. Gotta I understand people's worries. Here hurts his

484
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: m v P level playing right now. It is incredible,

485
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: But holy heck, have they just had so many fortunate

486
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 1: bounces going their way, these Eagles these last couple of weeks,

487
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: and this line has just ballooned up. I mean, if

488
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: it was seven, sure I could be talked into the

489
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 1: Eagles because I make this line six and a half,

490
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 1: and maybe I could give a little bit of a

491
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: little bit of leeway to this Eagles team because they

492
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: are the better side. But now we've crossed the key

493
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: number of eight eight and a half rolling up to nine.

494
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,199
Speaker 1: At this point with this Barriers team, we just have

495
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: to do it. We've just seen it so many times

496
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: with Justin Fields. He's so athletic, he's so incredibly gifted

497
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 1: that in games like this, he just keeps it close,

498
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 1: especially at home. This year, They've been in a lot

499
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: of these games. I mean that that Green Bay game

500
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: was brutal. They were covering that game. They're winning the

501
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 1: whole time. At the very end of it, a little

502
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: broken tackle Green Bands I winning by ten. That's just

503
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 1: a really flukey, unlucky noncover. If you were on the

504
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 1: Bears side, I just don't. You can't really count those

505
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 1: things in these models. So to me, I counted that

506
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: as a win for this Bears team. So I still

507
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: getting the benefit and moved up the points to make

508
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: this game six and a half. It's nine. Just because

509
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: the public is completely out on this Bears team. They're

510
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 1: like what Jack kind of said earlier. I don't know

511
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 1: if you're on airboard, but it's just about the Bears

512
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 1: already kind of looking for next year. They already know

513
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: what they have and hurt I mean on hurts and fields.

514
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 1: They just want to keep him healthy and keep him

515
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: up right. He's such a competitor, Like to me, he's

516
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: if he's playing this game, he's going full boar. Nine

517
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 1: points in this matchup, it's just a lot of points.

518
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 1: So Eagles even if they're up big, up twenty in

519
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 1: the first half, I still won't be worried because I've

520
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 1: just seen this Bears team have multiple games, even that

521
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: Vikings game. The Vikings rub big first half, Bears come back.

522
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: That's just how I feel about this Bears team. They're

523
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: just a team that can keep coming back, keep fighting.

524
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: You're never out of him. You're getting nine points in

525
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 1: those kind of those For those kind of teams, you

526
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: have to back it. Yeah, Look, if he's going to

527
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: be playing, there's a possibility the Bears can score just

528
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 1: because you can't account for justin fields. He's so athletic

529
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 1: in the same way we've seen game changers like what

530
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes can do or what Lamar Jackson can do.

531
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 1: You know what we've seen Jalen Hurts do. Like he's

532
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 1: just gifted and like finds a way he can dup

533
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: people in ways that five people in the NFL may

534
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 1: be able to do. So, of course you've got to

535
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: play the Bears. Is nine point at home underdogs? Do

536
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: we think that delta between the Bears and the Eagles

537
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: is smaller than say, the Chiefs and the Broncos. I do?

538
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 1: Did I bet as much as I could on the

539
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 1: Broncos at plus nine and a half, I did, so,

540
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 1: of course we're gonna bet the Bears a plus nine. Yeah,

541
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: I don't know if I have six figures on this one,

542
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 1: just because, uh, it's the m v P of the

543
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: league right now. It hurts, but yeah, it's just it's

544
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 1: just an overinflated line. Like Chad was just saying, I've

545
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 1: got eight figures on this game, right eat eat figures. Uh.

546
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: The Dallas Cowboys, I mean, god, we're shaping up to

547
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 1: love so many games here. The Dallas Cowboys are on

548
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 1: the road. They are four and a half point favorites

549
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 1: against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I love the Jacks here. Yeah,

550
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 1: we're screwed. Of course we love them. I mean we're

551
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna bet this. We're gonna lose money on it.

552
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,919
Speaker 1: It's just the way the world works for us this season.

553
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: I just love this Jaguars team. We're finally seeing these

554
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks exactly what we saw coming to

555
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: the season of Trevor Lawrence being that guy taking that

556
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: next step. It took a while. It took a while

557
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: for him to get comorable on Doug system. We've seen

558
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: it these last couple weeks. So he is finally comfortable.

559
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 1: This team is really potent on offense when he's got

560
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: everything going. So, you know, Chad, I just I feel

561
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: bad because people are getting so scarred from our love

562
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 1: with the Jaguars. I can really understand it because even

563
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: last week they might have been down seven, nothing, whatever

564
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: it was, and I was just cursing myself, saying, why

565
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: do I keep betting this Jaguars team? But the Trevor

566
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: Lawrence effect. Man, he's so talented. There's just certain throws

567
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 1: he makes. You're just like, man, this kid has all

568
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 1: the tools to be good in this sports. So Chad

569
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: and I we might be buying high on the Jaguars

570
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: here after the biggest, biggest one of the year against

571
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 1: the Titians. Now coming home and we're selling on a

572
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: Cowboys team that they just had their worst game of

573
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 1: the year against the Texans. They definitely should have lost.

574
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 1: The Texans just can't beat They can't put teams away,

575
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: and they let Dallas hang around Dallas. It was still

576
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: that game. But my concern here is just what it was.

577
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago I talked about with Doc

578
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: I just I don't like what I've seen from Dakdak

579
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: doesn't look comfortable. He hasn't looked right all season. That's

580
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: why I don't take them serious. Come playoff time, I'd

581
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 1: still put the point irs over them, even with this

582
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: seventh round quarterback. It's just it's the Doc effect. He

583
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: just doesn't make the plays like he used to, doesn't

584
00:29:57,840 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 1: run out of the pocket like he used to he

585
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 1: does and make the smart reads like he used to.

586
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on deck. It's just something

587
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: something is different with him this year. Something's wrong, and

588
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 1: he's already struggled in his whole career in the playoffs.

589
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: To me, that's just gonna inflate come playoff time. So

590
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: um me and have I'm not gonna probably have with

591
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 1: this is one of our five. Like, I really do

592
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: like this number Against a Dallas team that sure they

593
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 1: might be a put up points run the ball. I

594
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: just don't see their defense really slowing down this Jaguars offense.

595
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: They just have a lot clicking for them right now.

596
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, good matchup for this Jaguars team. What I

597
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: like about this right now? The last six weeks since

598
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: Week nine Trevor Lawrence, according to Pro Football Focus, second

599
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 1: highest rated passer in the NFL. It's got ten touchdowns,

600
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: no picks. Early in the year when we love the Jags,

601
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: they were not converting in the red zone. And the

602
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: problem wasn't the play calling, it was Trevor Lawrence. And

603
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: I'm no football I'm not like a football analyst, but

604
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 1: I watched more than the average person. He was throwing

605
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 1: these balls that had no touch and we're super flat

606
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 1: in the red zone. And you could see that's evolving,

607
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 1: especially in that game against the Titans. You also saw

608
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: him running against the Titans. He had a great bootleg

609
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 1: to score a touchdown against the Titans. UM and the

610
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: one thing I'll say is that their offensive line is

611
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: really good, top five against pressure in the NFL, and

612
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: so that mitigates Dallas is strength, which is rushing the passer,

613
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys have a lot of injuries in the

614
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: back end of their defensive secondary. UM, give me this

615
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 1: game at home. I like the matchup. I just do,

616
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 1: I really really do we have to make this, Simon says,

617
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 1: because I'm like looking at it four and a half

618
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 1: right now, I could see a drop in of four

619
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 1: over the next day or two. So I'm I'm I'm

620
00:31:52,720 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: making Timon says Simon says, Simon says jazz or half. Wow,

621
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: that came out of nowhere. Well, I'm just thinking that.

622
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 1: I was like, this number is definitely gonna move because,

623
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 1: like you just said, it's just it's such a good

624
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 1: matchup for their strength against Dallas's weakness. All right, well,

625
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: look we have the Foxhold Bears plus nine. The son

626
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: that says Jack's plus uh four and a half were

627
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 1: rolling lately, folks. So these are things you want to

628
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: jump on. I'm looking to get more out of the

629
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: NFL this season. Well, and that was the perfect time

630
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:29,520
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631
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632
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633
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634
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635
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636
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: to touch down scores too over under yards. For example,

637
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: this week, my favorite bet Jacksonville Jaguars as underdogs against

638
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,880
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660
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Speaker 1: hundred five to two hundred in Wyoming, or visit www.

663
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 1: One eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. The Lions.

664
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting, the three things, the three teams we

665
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: talked about most for future bets for season win totals

666
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: before the season began. The Bears under five and a half.

667
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 1: I think they've got three wins over the next four weeks.

668
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 1: They've got to go three and one. The Lions over

669
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 1: six and a half over the next four weeks. They

670
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 1: gotta win one more game. And then the Jets. We

671
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: had under five and a half. We're not going to

672
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,320
Speaker 1: win that obviously. We also have the Jags at plus

673
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 1: seven fifty to win the a f C South. We

674
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: still got a shot with that one. We got the

675
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 1: Lions playing the Jets basically pick. You know, some books

676
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 1: have it a Lions plus one, some have it Jets

677
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: plus one. It's a tough one though. I love the

678
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: Jets here, but they got injuries, so off to wait

679
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 1: and see. This was gonna be on my favorite bigger

680
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 1: bets of a week. We gotta wait and seeing right now.

681
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: For Sunday, we're looking at a nor Eastern hitting the

682
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: North the Northeast. We got Jared Golf outdoors and a

683
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: Northeastern that that actually would really be happened. So that

684
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,439
Speaker 1: is just a complete nightmare fuel if you're a guy

685
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 1: that likes back on this Lions team, the splits are

686
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 1: just insane. What he does on the road and what

687
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 1: he does at home. Um this year, if you go

688
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 1: back and watch that Patriots game when that got shut out,

689
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: that was just your classic. It was. It wasn't so

690
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 1: much bad weather, it's just golf got in his head

691
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: early on and they kind of took him out of

692
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 1: his element. We've seen that. That's how you kind of

693
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:56,320
Speaker 1: beat this to Troit team. If you can kind of

694
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 1: get him off his spot, make him uncomfortable the offense

695
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 1: can't produce. That's a huge deal. But the key to

696
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 1: this matchup is the injuries. Like if the Jets are down,

697
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: you know two guys in their D line. They got

698
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: Mike Mike White is banged up, you don't know who

699
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 1: their quarterback is, I can't back it. And I want

700
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 1: to be on this Detroit team because that's like Chad

701
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,439
Speaker 1: just talked about, this is the team. I love this team.

702
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 1: I have a lot invested in to make the playoffs,

703
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 1: So I got no move on this one right now.

704
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: But I can promise you the value right now is

705
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: on the Jets. It's just I don't know who the

706
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: quarterback is. I don't know who's healthy. So I just

707
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 1: can't bet this on Tuesday. But if if they have

708
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 1: all their pieces in and Mike White's fully you know,

709
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 1: good to go, and Queen and Williams is there on

710
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 1: the is back for the deal line? Like all right,

711
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 1: I could get on this movement and back the Jets

712
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 1: is a home dog here. But as we sit here

713
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, I just don't know who's in or not.

714
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:47,359
Speaker 1: So I just can't put any money in this game. Yet.

715
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: You and I don't talk about these games before we

716
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 1: get on the air. Uh. I like the Jets here too,

717
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 1: and the only reason I don't just because I just

718
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 1: want the lines to win. I love the Lions so much,

719
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 1: and I love Dan Campbell and I want this team

720
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 1: to finish with a winning record. I want them to

721
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,720
Speaker 1: finish in the playoffs. I want Dan Campbell to coast

722
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: the Lions for the next decade. That's way to win. Man.

723
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 1: Now you're figuring it out. Now, we're figuring it out.

724
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: That's outstanding, gentlemen. So I'm passionately rooting for the Lions

725
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: and kind of keeping my eye on what the what

726
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:28,439
Speaker 1: happens with the Jets roster right now because we gotta

727
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 1: be a mercenaries like we love them, but we're here

728
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 1: to make money. Yeah, that's why we don't care about

729
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 1: the Vikings and the Dolphins. Uh. The Steelers are two

730
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 1: and a half point dogs on the road at the

731
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 1: resurgent Panthers. Very interesting game to me, right, I don't

732
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 1: know that this the Panthers should be two and a

733
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 1: half point favorites at home. You're obviously getting the bounds

734
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 1: from what they did against Seattle. They're a better team

735
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 1: with Sam Donald than they are with Baker Mayfield the quarterback.

736
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: They're running the ball well, their defense is playing really well.

737
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 1: A lot of pressure from the edges, especially with Brian Burns. Um.

738
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 1: I don't know that Kenny Pickett is going to be

739
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 1: playing because of the concussion protocol. They are not a

740
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 1: very good team with Mitch Trubisky. I don't know. Do

741
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 1: you have a strong opinion here? Yeah, I'm shocked that

742
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: you don't. You don't want to take Carolina here. It

743
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 1: just feels like if Kenny's out and it is Mitch, Yeah,

744
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 1: Mitch could burn us have a miracle game. But the

745
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: odds don't say that. They say, all right, this, this

746
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 1: is a one to one and a half point drop.

747
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 1: Him coming in over being Kenny Pickett, who just he

748
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 1: makes smarter plays. Mitch just does not. Can't read defense.

749
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 1: I mean, how do you throw three interceptions? Um, the

750
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 1: Ravens were begging to give that game away? I mean

751
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 1: three three interceptions? I don't I think two of them

752
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: might have been the red zone and a missfield goal.

753
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: You're right, the value probably is on Pittsburgh, especially at

754
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 1: Carolina had such a big game. But to me, the

755
00:38:56,680 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 1: values have shifted enough where if it is Mitch three, yeah,

756
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:02,879
Speaker 1: I started thinking Pittsburgh with two and a half, that's

757
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 1: that's that's fair value right now to me on Carolina.

758
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 1: So not not enough where I would make this one

759
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 1: of our five. But Yeah, my early lean right now

760
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 1: is towards this Carolina team that they have a great

761
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 1: defense and they kind of note they are on offense here.

762
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: I mean, Sam Donald just an ultimate game manager. He

763
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 1: really didn't put his team in any position to lose

764
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 1: last week. He didn't do much offensively, he didn't have

765
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 1: that crazy were big throws, but he just didn't put

766
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: his team in a bad position. Their defense kind of

767
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 1: did the rest for him. So same kind of view

768
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: here of like, all right, maybe we just take the

769
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 1: under as well, and we just take Carolina again where

770
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: it's we're kind of back on their defense at home. Um,

771
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 1: not so much, Sam Donald, because they have the same

772
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 1: film we do. You could run they're running. The Ravens

773
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: are running about ten yards anytime they wanted up the

774
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 1: middle with Gus Gus Edwards and j K. Dobbins. So

775
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if these Carolina running backs for a

776
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 1: bunch of no namers, they can run the ball. I mean,

777
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 1: they just ran all over the Seahawks. So a couple

778
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: of little favorable matchups on the D line and O

779
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: line positions for this Carolina team that just makes real

780
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 1: interest in them. But um, as we're sitting here on Tuesday.

781
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:03,919
Speaker 1: Another game. I just need to wait and see who's

782
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 1: gonna be the quarterback for Pittsburgh this next one. The

783
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: Kancity Chiefs. We just faded as nine and a half

784
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: point road favorites, go back on the road fourteen point

785
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 1: favorites against the Texans. Now, Like, look, Simon, yeah, you

786
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: and I both know we have to take the Texans. Yeah,

787
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: we have to. Yeah, I wouldn't make one of our

788
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: five though, But this is this is like just the

789
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: classic we're bend the number we've been against. My home

790
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 1: is a big favorite because he just lets these teams

791
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 1: stay close. And I know I got lucky that earlier

792
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 1: this year I was on the Chiefs against the Rams,

793
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 1: and I think they got a last second field goal

794
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: to cover that number. Um, but it feels like another

795
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 1: game where the Chiefs aren't going to show their best stuff.

796
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 1: This is kind of be a tune up game for

797
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 1: the following week. They're just gonna try to stay healthy,

798
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 1: get right against Houston team that they gave their all

799
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 1: last week, and like still even when every little thing

800
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: was bouncing their way, they still couldn't win that game outright,

801
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, I wanted back Houston here. I probably will

802
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 1: have fourteen, but won't be one of my bigger bets

803
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: this week. No, I should say, by the way, I

804
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: talked about the luck rankings, the biggest differentials in the

805
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 1: luck rankings this week, we've talked about all the games already.

806
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:30,240
Speaker 1: Chicago is number one. We love Chicago. Houston is number two.

807
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: We're taking Houston, but not in the contest. Indie is

808
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:37,240
Speaker 1: number three. We're gonna take Houston, Indie probably in the contest.

809
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: Jacksonville was number four. We're probably gonna take Jacksonville on

810
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 1: the contest. You've already made it your Simon says, bears

811
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: are a foxhole Cleveland who you didn't know the luck

812
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 1: rankings yet but you liked Cleveland, and uh New Orleans,

813
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:56,799
Speaker 1: who you lean towards. I have no opinion. There's number

814
00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: six in the luck rankings this week. Biggest differentials not

815
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 1: not a nut shocker that line up with all them,

816
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:04,919
Speaker 1: because that's kind of where they're telling you, that's where

817
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 1: the value is going to be. A lot of people

818
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: are making opinions on teams that they just haven't had

819
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 1: things bounced their way, and that's where you get a

820
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 1: couple of free points. But it makes me honestly feel good.

821
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: I mean, last week, I know the luck Rankin's question,

822
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 1: so um, it feels good to be on the same

823
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,919
Speaker 1: side as those guys, the Patriots. One last night, they're

824
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 1: going on the road at the Raiders. Patriots are one

825
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 1: point favorites. I'm surprised that so much money of the

826
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Patriots right now. Admittedly low

827
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 1: volume giving the Patriots is played last night, but uh,

828
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 1: tough one. Yeah. I love Vegas. I mean, Vegas got embarrassed,

829
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 1: had one of the worst comebacks ever on Thursday night.

830
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 1: I mean, Patriots just blew out the Cardinals by whatever,

831
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 1: that was fourteen points. So um, to me, Vegas is

832
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:54,839
Speaker 1: what you like against the Patriots team, that they're high

833
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 1: explosive offense, they can move the ball down feel in fact,

834
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 1: that you're coming off such a bad, embarrassed seen loss.

835
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 1: We love it like this. If they would have just

836
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 1: beat that game, if they would have won that game

837
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,880
Speaker 1: by fourteen, but they were up in that final fourth quarter,

838
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 1: this line will probably Vegas minus three minus two and

839
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 1: a half. It's completely flipped the other way. Just because

840
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 1: people think this Vegas team is completely quit. Now on

841
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: their head coach where if you look at it, they

842
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: still actually have a chance somehow making the playoffs. It's

843
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 1: not that crazy. They can still have outside chance of

844
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: getting back into the playoffs. So I don't know, it

845
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:28,959
Speaker 1: feels like I'm getting free points around Vegas. Um, I'll

846
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 1: take the value on that, uh, just because there's so

847
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 1: many other games I love this week that have good

848
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: value on bigger dogs. I don't know if they'll be

849
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 1: one of our five, but I do really like this match,

850
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 1: and I like the value I'm getting on this this

851
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: Vegas team after just such an embarrassing loss. Like usually guys,

852
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 1: when they get embarrassed like that, there's kind of comeback.

853
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 1: Wins usually sparked something in the team the following week.

854
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 1: This issue is McDaniels might be one of the worst

855
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 1: coaches in football this year. Josh mcdonnels. I mean the heat.

856
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 1: We've never seen anything like that historically a team. They've

857
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,120
Speaker 1: had four games now, they've been up double digg as,

858
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 1: they've lost in the fourth quarter. So Um, a lot

859
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 1: of little negative things about this Vegas team, But can

860
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:09,479
Speaker 1: can deny it. That's where the value is this week.

861
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 1: The patriotsarial inflated line because what they beat Colt McCoy,

862
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 1: the backup the Arizona last night. I don't know, it

863
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 1: was like just to get free points here with Vegas. Well, look,

864
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if the team is quit on him.

865
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:25,760
Speaker 1: He's not going anywhere. So he's the coach this year

866
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: and next year, so the team can't really quit on him.

867
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 1: And I don't know that they have quit on him.

868
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 1: I think that they're all confused, they're all frustrated, they're

869
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,919
Speaker 1: frustrated with each other. But they had a really good

870
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 1: run going there. They had a bad quarter and now

871
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: they're going to have to look at this as a

872
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 1: way to say, hey, we still got a shop, we

873
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 1: got a rally. We can beat a team that isn't

874
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 1: as talented as us. They just aren't look at across

875
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 1: the offense, who is the Patriots top receiver, Who is

876
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 1: their quarterback? Who is their running back? One on that

877
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,359
Speaker 1: side of the ball is going to be as good

878
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 1: as Davante Adams, Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs. I mean, I

879
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:14,399
Speaker 1: think generally the Patriots are in bad ship, Like they're

880
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 1: not good right now. The Patriots when this wins this

881
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 1: year are against backup quarterbacks. Dude, how are we not

882
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:30,400
Speaker 1: making you know what, how are we not making the

883
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 1: Raiders the biggest bet we've ever made just based on that?

884
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 1: Not kidding, but you're you're right, Like it's a good spot.

885
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 1: The fact that it's making us so uncomfortable it probably

886
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 1: makes even more like this is definitely when you want

887
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 1: to take Vegas, because even even when you try to

888
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 1: talk about it's like, oh God, this fucking team in Vegas,

889
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: they just keep blowing these games. But man, this is

890
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 1: such a nice matchup for them against his Patriots team.

891
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: I think the question is going to be how long

892
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: do we wait? Because right out at FanDuel, uh, you

893
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 1: can get the Raiders at plus one and a half.

894
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:10,319
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a no brainer teaser. As soon as

895
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:11,839
Speaker 1: we got off this call, I'll tease that up seven

896
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:14,840
Speaker 1: and a half. I'll tell you that much. I'm just like,

897
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 1: how do you not take the one and a half

898
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: right now? Could keep growing that you just had. All

899
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 1: this money is pouring on the Patriots, So who's a

900
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: key number. I'll wait to grab that too if it

901
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 1: hits it. But you're right, I mean, that's good value,

902
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 1: good value Cardinals with Colton McCoy against the Broncos. Broncos

903
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 1: are two and a half point favorites. You don't have

904
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 1: to bet every game, right, No, we have no idea

905
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 1: who the quarterback is. I mean, my gut tells me

906
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: to take the Cardinals here. Um, you got Russell Wilson

907
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 1: coming off what he looked like was a major concussion.

908
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 1: He does play. Um, but yeah, no, no idea what

909
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 1: to do any of these teams. Two were the biggest,

910
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:55,799
Speaker 1: two of the biggest disappointments of this year. Cardinals, we're

911
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 1: a playoff team. Last year people thought, you know, they

912
00:46:58,160 --> 00:46:59,839
Speaker 1: could be able to keep riding on momentum even though

913
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 1: people had them as the third team that division behind

914
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 1: the Rams and the forty Niners. The flip side, the Broncos.

915
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 1: I knew this crazy guy who wrote a best time

916
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:11,839
Speaker 1: in New York Times bestseller book that made that he's

917
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:15,760
Speaker 1: written four of him. Uh, he made them his one seed,

918
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:19,240
Speaker 1: despite his talented co host telling him all summer Russell

919
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 1: Wilson wasn't that good and he was overrated, So no calories. No,

920
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 1: he drank the kool aid two. He loved Russell Wilson too. Um,

921
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 1: but yeah, thank you guys for that easy value on

922
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 1: the Chiefs to win that division this year. That was

923
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: nice of you. It is amazing. There was so much

924
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 1: backlash against Patrick Mahomes was having an m v P title. Yeah,

925
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 1: I drink my My, My Buddy the other day, Like

926
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 1: I laughed for him. I said, can you believe that

927
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 1: we got the Chiefs at eleven o one? Like to

928
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl just because of that, like the

929
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 1: fact that people were just that down on them. Uh.

930
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: Still though, even even now, Matt Mitchell's team, the Bills

931
00:47:57,120 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 1: are still favorite for the Super Bowl, which it blows

932
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: my mind, just because Josh Allen hasn't played that well

933
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:06,919
Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks. The Tennessee Titans are now

934
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 1: on the road. We loved fading the Titans against the

935
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 1: Jacks at home, but we also like fading Mike Vrabel

936
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:16,319
Speaker 1: as a favorite of more than the field goal. And

937
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 1: so the Titans are now on the road two and

938
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 1: a half point dogs against the Chargers. Blindly, we have

939
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 1: said you fade the Chargers is favorites, and we've also

940
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 1: said you take the Titans as dogs and don't don't

941
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 1: change anything. You just do exactly what you said. Chad.

942
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,280
Speaker 1: We'll wait, give us, give us the three sports books

943
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 1: be nice to us. I don't think we're gonna get it.

944
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: I hope we do, just because I think the Pulk

945
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 1: will bet the Chargers. I mean, they looked like I'm

946
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,240
Speaker 1: a completely different team with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen

947
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 1: on the field together, don't they? Dude, as we're talking,

948
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 1: it just went to three right, so to I mean,

949
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 1: I feel like it would get there eventually, just because

950
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: the Titians have so many injuries and we don't know

951
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: if we don't know if Burks is gonna be back yet.

952
00:48:57,160 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 1: For their wide receiving years, which is a is a

953
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 1: big deal for them, they need eat some type of

954
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: deep threat, especially that's how you can attack this Charger's team.

955
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 1: But the biggest reason we want to take the Titans

956
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 1: here is people forget how do you beat the Chargers?

957
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: You run the ball? Like That's how they're losing all

958
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 1: these games and why they were run all these close

959
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 1: games was teams are picking up a hundred fifty seventy

960
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 1: five yards a game. First time. They were one of

961
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 1: historically one of the worst run defenses in football. Did

962
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 1: they figure it out last week or did they just

963
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:27,399
Speaker 1: get it a lead and Miami couldn't run the ball.

964
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 1: They had to pass the whole time. That was one

965
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 1: of those things where as soon as Miami kind of

966
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: throneto that game, scrip of they only were able to

967
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 1: pass um. They just were able to move the ball. Thanks,

968
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 1: you really aren' built that way. They kind of just

969
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:39,919
Speaker 1: stick to what they are. They like to run the ball.

970
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 1: This is as low as it gets buying the Titans,

971
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 1: And this is the worst they've looked all year, right

972
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:48,879
Speaker 1: they who do they play before the Eagles? You don't

973
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 1: remember they played by I'm pretty sure they lost. Then

974
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 1: they get absolutely dominated by the Eagles, and they absolutely

975
00:49:55,000 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 1: dominated here by the Jaguars. Oh man, it that's that's

976
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 1: the fear here, Chad. Where it's like the Titans they

977
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,359
Speaker 1: are kind of reverting back to what they were early

978
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 1: in the season of this team that we thought we're

979
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: gonna just be bad. Right. They lost a lot of

980
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 1: key positions on offense. Their defense was struggling and very

981
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 1: able kind of righting the ship during the middle of

982
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 1: the season. They've reverted back to it a little bit

983
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: here these last couple of weeks. But how can we

984
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 1: not this is what we do against the Charges we

985
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,839
Speaker 1: take the dog, especially if it's at three. So uh,

986
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: I gotta hold your nose and and take the Titans

987
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 1: here at plus three. Done. Milman did it while we

988
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 1: were talking. He saw the three on the board. It's

989
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 1: plus three minus one eighteen at fandel Um. Thank yep.

990
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 1: Quick slipped it. Quick slipped it. For those who are listening,

991
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 1: if you're in a legal state, go into your Action app,

992
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 1: pick the game you want, quick slip it immediately to

993
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 1: fan duel. You don't have to go into the FanDuel

994
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 1: l app. Look for the game you get the bed

995
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 1: slip right there, punch in your bed. It's super easy.

996
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 1: One of the is next two games will be my

997
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: executive decision, of which I am on a roll. Bengals

998
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 1: minus three and a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

999
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 1: I can't think of a reason to bet the Buccaneers. Yeah,

1000
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 1: even though we're supposed to, like this is this is

1001
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: where we're supposed to bet them. This is a good

1002
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 1: biolo spot. But Joe Burrow is he's that dude right now,

1003
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 1: like they're covering every game, He's making the big throws.

1004
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: I can't deny it, so I'll admit it. I'm scared

1005
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:35,800
Speaker 1: of Joe right now. Like nine out of ten times,

1006
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:38,800
Speaker 1: I auto auto bet this Tampa team. Close my eyes.

1007
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 1: Auto bet theom home dog against a team that's over inflated,

1008
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:46,800
Speaker 1: especially value wise. Um, this Bengals team. But like you,

1009
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 1: I just said, I can't do it. I don't know

1010
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 1: what the hell I'm bet when this Buck's team. They're

1011
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: showing nothing. They have bad drops every week, Brady never

1012
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 1: has time in the pocket. Everything is just so negative

1013
00:51:57,000 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 1: right now, Tampa, um Man. I mean off the time

1014
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 1: I head. The only game I could think of them

1015
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:04,400
Speaker 1: covering was that Seahawks game in Germany. These last like

1016
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 1: six seven weeks, they just they're just bad this year.

1017
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 1: So yeah, Gonda, I might end up with the public here.

1018
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 1: I might have on the Bengals. I don't even care

1019
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:15,120
Speaker 1: if it's all the money, all the tickets are coming in.

1020
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 1: Might end up on the Bengals this week. But I'll

1021
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 1: hopefully just stay away from this one. I listen, I've

1022
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:29,320
Speaker 1: been riding the Bengals four weeks. I didn't against the Browns.

1023
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 1: It was a mistake. Um, But there's not a lot

1024
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 1: of evidence that the Buccaneers are a very good football team.

1025
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 1: But this line stinks. It should stinks, Simon, This line

1026
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 1: freaking stinks. Should be six and six should be six.

1027
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 1: It's three and a half. It's terrible. It is suspicious.

1028
00:52:55,480 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 1: Suspect is saying the movies, you suspect. You know what's

1029
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 1: not suspect making an executive decision to bet on the

1030
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: New York Football Giants at plus four and a half

1031
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 1: against the Washington Commanders. Simon, these teams played two weeks ago.

1032
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 1: These played two weeks ago when they tied New Jersey.

1033
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 1: So now because the Giants get blown out and the

1034
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:28,279
Speaker 1: Commanders get a by and now they're playing in Washington,

1035
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 1: which has no home field advantage, the Commanders are all

1036
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 1: of a sudden four and a half point favorites. Makes

1037
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:40,280
Speaker 1: no sense, makes no sense. And you're getting a team

1038
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 1: that just got blown out. If you look back at

1039
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:47,480
Speaker 1: the data, look into the bet Labs database going back

1040
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 1: twenty years, teams get blown up by twenty points or

1041
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 1: more the following week covered clip. We're taking the Giants

1042
00:53:56,120 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 1: as the executive decision. Damnit, Chad, I don't know. I

1043
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 1: don't like it. I don't like it. The only thing

1044
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 1: I don't like is I try to think of these

1045
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 1: guys as humans, and Washington played the Giants and then

1046
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:10,840
Speaker 1: had a bye week and now they're playing them again.

1047
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 1: That's a big deal to me, Like that's all they

1048
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:15,879
Speaker 1: thought about and they've worked on for two weeks now,

1049
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:18,359
Speaker 1: so they prep for a team for a week, played them,

1050
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: and then it got to just chill and rest and

1051
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:22,239
Speaker 1: think about that same team, and they know that's all

1052
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:23,759
Speaker 1: they gotta do is just beat these guys and they're

1053
00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Damn it, Chad, damn you, because you're

1054
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:31,560
Speaker 1: right like the Giants, this is a big line divisional

1055
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 1: game or a prime time game. But I'm gonna wait

1056
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 1: and see because if the public's all over the Giants,

1057
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 1: I am fucking all over Washington because I just I

1058
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 1: do not trust this line at all. I'm right there

1059
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 1: with you. Makes more sense if it was three or

1060
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 1: three and a half. You saw these two teams played

1061
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:50,399
Speaker 1: to a tie. There's not a four and a half

1062
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 1: point difference between being on the road and at home

1063
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:56,520
Speaker 1: for this Washington team. So another line that just stinks

1064
00:54:56,560 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 1: to holy hell this week. Um, don't do not like

1065
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 1: get I don't. I don't trust it on the fact

1066
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 1: that Washington has done nothing but think about this team

1067
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 1: in this game for two weeks. That's got to be

1068
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 1: a big deal. Like it's it's I can't hear the

1069
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 1: fact they've just had to prep for this team while

1070
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 1: the Giants to go and get their ass kicked by

1071
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 1: the Giant, by the Eagles, and I gotta turn around

1072
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:20,239
Speaker 1: and go play another primetime game against Washington. So I

1073
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 1: get exactly where Chad's coming from. Can't fault them for it.

1074
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 1: It's the smart move. Um, I can't back it. As

1075
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 1: we say here on Tuesday, the Rams are on the road,

1076
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 1: that's all you gotta. You never buttle I love it.

1077
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: I I what you're saying makes me nervous because it's

1078
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 1: never a gooting. I'm on the opposite side of you

1079
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 1: when you're on the road dog as I think you're

1080
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 1: over four this year going against the road Dogs. And

1081
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:49,799
Speaker 1: and what's annoying is, look, I play it by the

1082
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 1: book generally, and I get where you're coming from on

1083
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 1: this one, and like that's just what the book says

1084
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 1: to me. And you've made some really good points, like

1085
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:00,080
Speaker 1: you gotta play the teams that you get to the

1086
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 1: end of the year. But I don't think the Commanders

1087
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 1: are anything special. I know, just be careful this line.

1088
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:23,800
Speaker 1: It stinks, stinks, stinks, stinks. Smelly cheese. Rams plus seven

1089
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 1: against the Green Bay Packers playing against Aaron Rodgers in

1090
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:33,640
Speaker 1: the tun draft. Oh my god, football is better with Baker.

1091
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:38,240
Speaker 1: Football is better when Baker is good and has people's

1092
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:44,719
Speaker 1: attention and is making comments. It just is has the's

1093
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:47,719
Speaker 1: something that loves the gamble. I obviously will gamble in

1094
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:50,239
Speaker 1: this game. Well, this is a this is one of

1095
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:53,400
Speaker 1: those people should just take off. This is a horrible

1096
00:56:53,480 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 1: game between two just bad quarterbacks. No, no, there's nothing here.

1097
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 1: I mean, like the funny thing is in August, this

1098
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 1: game is amazing, Like, oh my god, we get Green

1099
00:57:05,680 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 1: Bay the Rams in a week fourteen or fifteen in

1100
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 1: the snow, they'll both be fighting for playoff positions. Where

1101
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 1: now these guys are both fighting for the bottom of

1102
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 1: the barrel. Um just bad teams. So when two bad

1103
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 1: teams matched up like this, I take the seven, I'll

1104
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 1: take the I'll take the points with Baker zero faith

1105
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 1: in catching that ticket probably only have a penny on it,

1106
00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 1: but this is this is the time I backed that number.

1107
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 1: It's who the hell are is green Baby catching over seven? Points.

1108
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 1: They're terrible, So yeah, I'll take seven points with Baker. Here,

1109
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 1: can I say something, Yeah, I want to change my

1110
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 1: exact decision, thank you. I want to go with the

1111
00:57:47,160 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 1: Colts plus four. There the choice between the unthinkable and

1112
00:57:53,120 --> 00:58:00,200
Speaker 1: the impossible. Exec decision. I would have to on that

1113
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:03,920
Speaker 1: in the beginning, and I forgot and then I felt

1114
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 1: like I couldn't go back because we moved down to

1115
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 1: the Bears and I couldn't go back, and then we

1116
00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 1: got the Jacks. I'm like, funk, I just completely whipped

1117
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 1: on it. And I went through the rest of the schedule,

1118
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:15,360
Speaker 1: and I was looking at all the games and it

1119
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:18,440
Speaker 1: came down to the to the Bengals and the Giants

1120
00:58:19,160 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 1: and and the Titans, and I felt like the Giants

1121
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:25,560
Speaker 1: were the best of all those. But I think I

1122
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 1: feel best about the Colts. I like it too. Yeah, alright,

1123
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:31,760
Speaker 1: the Vikings just play close games. I'm going back to

1124
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:35,400
Speaker 1: the Colts. That's my exact decision. Colts plus four. Giants

1125
00:58:35,440 --> 00:58:37,919
Speaker 1: think it's people burn those Giants burn him. I hope,

1126
00:58:37,920 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 1: I really hope people listening didn't bet the Giants right

1127
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:42,600
Speaker 1: away at four and a half, because even honest to God,

1128
00:58:43,200 --> 00:58:45,640
Speaker 1: even I like normally when we're talking about this, I'm

1129
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:48,600
Speaker 1: making bets at the same time we're talking about these numbers.

1130
00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:50,720
Speaker 1: Even I didn't pull the trigger on the Giants, I

1131
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 1: put the bet slipped in. I'm like, wait a second,

1132
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 1: all right, Bears plus nine, Fox all Son and says,

1133
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 1: Jacks plus four and a half exact decision, and Cults

1134
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 1: plus four our leans. Right now we will be putting

1135
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:06,520
Speaker 1: in five for the context. No more buys, Seahawks plus

1136
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: three and a half, Cults plus four, Bears plus nine,

1137
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:16,520
Speaker 1: Jags four and a half. We're watching the Titans, Miami,

1138
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:21,439
Speaker 1: the Raiders, and the Texans, and of course things could

1139
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:23,600
Speaker 1: change over the course of the next few days that

1140
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 1: make us think even differently about these things. So full slate,

1141
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:30,360
Speaker 1: no buys. We've given you all we can give you

1142
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 1: timean here you got, you got Thursdays, you got Saturdays,

1143
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:37,120
Speaker 1: you got Sunday, and you got Monday. Just never ending

1144
00:59:37,160 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 1: football games. Uh. I know this is pathetic, But when

1145
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 1: I woke up this morning, I was going to the bathroom,

1146
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 1: and as I was going to the bathroom, my thoughts

1147
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:51,080
Speaker 1: to myself, we got NFL football four out of seven

1148
00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:54,280
Speaker 1: days of the week. No, it's good life. It's a

1149
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:58,400
Speaker 1: really good life. I am Chad Mellman. He is Simon Hunter.

1150
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 1: Our producer extra ordinaris Matt Mitchell. This has been the

1151
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 1: favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network. Please download us

1152
01:00:05,560 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 1: from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify wherever you get your podcast, rank, review, subscribe,

1153
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 1: listen all the way through. You gotta listen all the

1154
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:15,840
Speaker 1: way through. That's how we get the credit. But leave

1155
01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:18,080
Speaker 1: us five stars they would have. You want feedback as

1156
01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:26,920
Speaker 1: a gift Until next time. I love you Yeah. Action

1157
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:31,000
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1158
01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:33,720
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.

1159
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:36,120
Speaker 1: Seven Gambler