1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: This is the with your host JJ ZACHERAJJ Zacherson. 2 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 2: What's up everyone. 3 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: It's JJ zachar Reeson, the editor in chief over at 4 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 1: Number five dot com and this is episode thirty six 5 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: of the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows 6 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: that are part of the Number five podcast network. 7 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in. 8 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Since we're getting close to the start of the NFL season, 9 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: I want to be clear about something. My opinions will change. 10 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: Some of you have listened to this podcast since I 11 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: started doing them back in April, and I thank you 12 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 1: for that. But you're also going to hear or inevitably 13 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: hear conflicting analysis on some players. That may be confusing. 14 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:44,480 Speaker 1: But here's why it happens. With more information, my opinions 15 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 1: will often change. You know. It's kind of like I 16 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 1: don't know anything in life. If I ate Popeyes chicken 17 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 1: my whole life, and someone told me, yo, bro, there's 18 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: this joint down the street that has way better chicken 19 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: for the same price. It's called Bojangles, that I would 20 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: no longer go to Popeyes. I would go to Bojangles 21 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: because Bojangles became superior with new information. By the way, guys, 22 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 1: if you're in the South and feeling like you want 23 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: to be unhealthy, get a four piece Chicken Supreme with 24 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: honey mustard from Bojangles. 25 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 2: Your life will change. 26 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: But seriously, I just don't understand the idea that an 27 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: analyst of any kind can't change their opinion. 28 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 2: This isn't necessarily true for me. 29 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: But if I wasn't thrilled about Dalvin Cook, for instance, 30 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: as a prospect because of his athletic profile, but Dalvin 31 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: Cook then goes to camp and in the preseason and dominates, 32 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: why in the world would I continue to say Dalvin 33 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: Cook isn't good. So if you hear those things, feel free. 34 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:35,559 Speaker 2: To ask me why. 35 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 1: Ask me why my opinion changed, Ask why I feel 36 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: differently about a player now than I did in April. 37 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: Because my goal here is to be as real, open 38 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: and honest as possible, and that doesn't include me just 39 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,559 Speaker 1: getting things wrong, but also me changing my opinion on things. 40 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: Regarding today's show, it's a mailbag Friday. 41 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 2: But before we get to. 42 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: The questions, a quick reminder that NFL season is just 43 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: around the corner and you can catch all the game 44 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: on tune In and the tune In app at home 45 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: or on the go. Listen to the home call of 46 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: every game live or pop in and out of the 47 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 1: action every Sunday with NFL First and Goal. That's tune 48 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: In's audio Red Zone station. Download the tune In app 49 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 1: today and listen to the NFL for free for thirty days. 50 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 1: Tune In is your everything audio app. Now let's get 51 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: to some questions. This first one comes from Twitter from 52 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: Tom Whalen at Tom C Whalen. You often insist that 53 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: fantasy football is a weekly, not yearly game. What are 54 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: some non intuitive strategies that stem from this distinction? I 55 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: do insist on this, So this is a great question, 56 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: tom as I like to say, looking at season long 57 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: numbers explains the end result, but not the journey. So 58 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 1: when you're going into a draft and strictly using season 59 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,679 Speaker 1: long projections, you're missing a ton about how the game 60 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 1: is played. You're basically working with what you believe is 61 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: perfect information in an imperfect fantasy football landscape. Because players 62 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: get hurt, players bust, players break out, you're going to 63 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,679 Speaker 1: be wrong. So working within this fake world where you're 64 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: not going to be wrong makes absolutely no sense. As 65 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: a result of that, when you draft, you should be 66 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: thinking about how the waiver wire can work in your 67 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 1: favor since it's such a massive part of the game. 68 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: That's partially why zero RB can work, or an obvious 69 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: strategy like streaming. You know you're not playing the same 70 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: quarterback and defense week to week with streaming, so simple 71 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: value over replacement player formulas don't really work well for 72 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,359 Speaker 1: the defensive and quarterback positions. There are other reasons why 73 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: I hate VORP too, and episode twenty two of the 74 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: Late Round podcast covers that, But I think the less 75 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 1: obvious strategies have to do with what I talked through 76 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: on episode twenty nine on predictability. People tend to ignore 77 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: the how when making start sit decisions, and they ignore 78 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: the balance of fantasy lineups week in and week out, 79 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: or the idea of having players who are reliable mix 80 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: with players who are more volatile in order to be 81 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: competitive each and every week, and you don't capture that 82 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: very well when thinking of fantasy football from a season 83 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: long perspective. When you look at fantasy that way, every 84 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: player is just an end number or a data point, 85 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: but looking at it week to week, you can see 86 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: the ebbs and flows of their season and how they're 87 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: accumulating fantasy points to then become that data point. This 88 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 1: next one is an email from Adrian Charlie Hijj. As always, 89 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 1: the show is straight fire. I'm here for the Frank 90 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: Gore takes. I'm here for the Frank Gore takes to Adrian. 91 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: With training camp in full swing, what are some red 92 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 1: flags and other things you look for to read the 93 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: tea leaves for players? I saw an article this morning 94 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: talking about how Samaj p Ryan is struggling with pass 95 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: protection and ball protection. Sound the alarms. Matt Jones is 96 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: working at the local RB's because he couldn't hold onto 97 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: the ball. When do pe Ryan owners freak out? Cheers Adrian. 98 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: I thought one of the best things that Adam Schefter 99 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: said on Wednesday's Late Round podcast was how we should 100 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: mostly ignore what coaches are saying to the media about 101 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,599 Speaker 1: workloads and focus on team actions and money spent. In 102 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: the case of p Ryan, I like him more than 103 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: Rob Kelly, as I've noted before, because Rob Kelly would 104 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: have to be a sincere outlier to be a consistent, 105 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: productive NFL running back. He has no college production profile 106 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 1: and came out with zero athleticism. Though I wasn't big 107 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: on p Ryn, coming out this offseason, he certainly trumped 108 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: Kelly's overall profile, but we have to be cognizant of 109 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: what particular coaching staffs like and look for. We have 110 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: to pay attention to their actions. Last year, Matt Jones 111 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: was arguably and I'd say probably better than Rob Kelly 112 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:19,239 Speaker 1: on the ground, Jones had a success rate of forty 113 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 1: five point four to five percent versus Kelly's thirty seven 114 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: point five zero percent. But despite these success rates, Jones 115 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: wasn't as efficient as Rob Kelly because Jones fumbled the football. 116 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 2: It was very, very close. 117 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: Jones had a minus point zero three rushing neep per 118 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 1: rush versus Kelly's minus point zero. 119 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 2: Two, but it was thanks to his fumbles. 120 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: Expected points our expected points model factors in fumbles, which 121 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: can really skew players averages. That's part of the reason 122 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: why I love a metric like success rate, because you're 123 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 1: taking that out. You're only looking at when a running 124 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: back has a successful run or when a. 125 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 2: Running back doesn't. 126 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 1: Basically, all I'm getting at here is that it's no 127 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 1: lock for teams to make optimal decisions in our eyes 128 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: because they value things differently than how we value things. 129 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: So when we know a team likes a certain trait 130 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: in a player, and then that player doesn't have that trait, 131 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:10,039 Speaker 1: it's a red flag. What's going on with samajp Ryan 132 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: right now is a red flag. As much as I'm 133 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,679 Speaker 1: not a fan of Rob Kelly, this information is only 134 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 1: helping Rob Kelly. And then I think if there are 135 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 1: constant negative reports, you can't feel. 136 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 2: Good about that player. It's that simple. Kevin White is 137 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 2: a good example of this. 138 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 1: The dude is in the news each day and seemingly 139 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: can't keep his head straight after all the injuries that 140 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 1: he sustained. That to me makes him incredibly risky and 141 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,119 Speaker 1: probably should bump Cam Meredith up just a bit given 142 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: he'll naturally see more volume on the flip side. And 143 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,279 Speaker 1: I mentioned this in the intro. If literally everyone is 144 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 1: saying Dalvin Cook is slaying at camp, then you better 145 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 1: pay attention. Not only that, but that's on top of 146 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: Latavius Murray being injured, and Murray even said that the 147 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 1: injury has put him quote behind the eight ball. It's 148 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 1: really just a giant puzzle that we've got to try 149 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 1: and piece together. Some people think it's all random, but 150 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: there are clues, especially again through these team's actions that 151 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: you can get through analyzing these situations. 152 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:06,679 Speaker 2: This next one's. 153 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: From Twitter at fan Profession. With Latavius Murray out for 154 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: a few weeks, Cook looks like a good grab, But 155 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: what about Carlos Hide. Team comparison's got me head scratching 156 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: on who's the best bet? Yeah, neither of them are 157 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:22,119 Speaker 1: in must have situations. The Vikings offensive line was trash 158 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: last year, but the forty nine Ers could be just 159 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 1: bad all around. 160 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 2: Offensively this season. But I'll say this, I'm actually. 161 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: Coming around on Hide a bit more than I was, 162 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: say a month ago, not because of recent reports that 163 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: he's going to be the top back and he'll keep 164 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: his job, which we're kind of ridiculous to begin with, 165 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 1: but because he's been productive when he's been healthy. Last 166 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: season in the Chip Kelly offense, only ten running backs 167 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: had more top twenty four weeks than Carlos Side, and 168 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: only seven had more Top twelve performances and Hide missed time, 169 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: so he was at a disadvantage when looking at things 170 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,679 Speaker 1: that way. And according to number five success rate metric, 171 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: he's been the best back in the forty nine ers 172 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: backfield each year that he's been in the league. Basically, 173 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: what I'm saying is that I do think that Carlos 174 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 1: Hide is a decent back. The worry is that he 175 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: won't see as many positive game scripts as Dalvin Cook might, 176 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: and scoring may be limited as a result of that. 177 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: If you look at what Kyle Shanahan did in Cleveland 178 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen, because I think that draws the most 179 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: parallels to this current offense, Brian Hoyer in that passing attack, 180 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: threw just twelve touchdowns, but the defense was actually pretty 181 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: good that year, leading to relatively neutral game scripts for 182 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,239 Speaker 1: the Browns offense. That season, they ring twentieth in point 183 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: margin at the start of the drive, starting an average 184 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 1: drive down one point three points. 185 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 2: That's really not that bad. 186 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: That led to the team running Terrence West one hundred 187 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 1: and seventy one times Isaiah Crowell one hundred and forty 188 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,680 Speaker 1: eight times, and they both scored a combined twelve touchdowns. 189 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: Ben Tate also ran one hundred and six times and 190 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 1: he scored four touchdowns. I do expect San Francisco's game 191 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: scripts to look worse this year, though, so I'm not 192 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 1: fully convinced Hyde will be in amazingly good situations, which 193 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 1: pushes him down the list a bit, and I worry 194 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: about unpredictability as a result of it. I do think 195 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: that Carlos hides ADP is perfectly fair, but I'd probably 196 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: lean Dalvin Cook's way between the two because of that 197 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: game script factor, because he does have ambiguous upside, and 198 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: because we're not or not yet at least questioning his durability. 199 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 1: This next one's an email from Andrew Poles. He says 200 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: JJ as a relative nubie to the MFL ten best 201 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: ball format. I've encountered two issues and am interested to 202 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: hear your intuitive thoughts or, if such research exists data analysis. 203 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: The first issue is drafting players with the same bye weeks. 204 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,199 Speaker 1: I assume this matters especially among early round draft picks, 205 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: and so I try to avoid having more than two 206 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: players on by during the same week among my selections 207 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: from say the first eight rounds. The second issue is 208 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: drafting players, particularly running back and wide receivers, from the 209 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: same team. Again, my senses this matters more in the 210 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: early rounds, but by drafting Zay Jones in the double 211 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: digit rounds after I took Sammy Watkins in the fourth, 212 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 1: am I unreasonably capping my team ceiling. I don't want 213 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: to make the mistake of handcuffing my own players and 214 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 1: limiting my upside, but at the same time, I feel 215 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:07,079 Speaker 1: like values sometimes mandates taking teammate wide receivers or running backs. 216 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 1: Any thoughts will be appreciated. Thanks for producing thoughtful and 217 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 1: fun content. Thank you for listening, Andrew, I greatly appreciate it. 218 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 1: Man To answer your first question, the way, in my opinion, 219 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: to handle bye weeks is to notice them, but don't 220 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 1: allow them to make suboptimal decisions for you. Realistically, this 221 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: is a situation that matters most for quarterbacks and defenses 222 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 1: because you're not drafting many of them, and maybe tight 223 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 1: ends too. But even if you think of this intuitively, 224 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: there's still a chance that the non bye week players 225 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 1: bust in a given week, and even though you'll take 226 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: a zero one week, if both guys are out, you're 227 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 1: also enabling them to compete for your roster spot in 228 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:43,719 Speaker 1: all other weeks. In the end, it shouldn't drive your 229 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: decision making, but serve more as a tiebreaker regarding the 230 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: teammate thing. Overall, I like diversification, but to me it 231 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 1: matters a lot more at running back than it does 232 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: wide receiver. It's much easier for two wide outs from 233 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: the same team to put together usable weeks than it 234 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: is for two running backs. Plain in some like there's 235 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: a reason we handcuff, or that some people handcuff running 236 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: backs and not wide receivers because running back is much 237 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: more binary. There are only one or two players at 238 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: the position getting consistent touches each week, when that's just 239 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: not the case at wide receiver. You can even look 240 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: at average draft position data to further this point. You've 241 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: got Jordan Nelson and Devonte Adams as two top three 242 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 1: or four round picks. You have a Mari Cooper and 243 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 1: Michael Crabtree as top picks and so on, but you 244 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:27,559 Speaker 1: just don't have that at running back. You don't have 245 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: multiple running backs being drafted early from the same team. 246 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 1: Now I'm not advocating you draft Amari Cooper and Michael 247 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 1: Crabtree on the same team, but I'm just showing how 248 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: it's a lot easier for there to be multiple usable 249 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: weeks during the same week at the wide receiver position 250 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: versus the running back position. This is why in best 251 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 1: ball leagues, I hate handcuffing, but I don't mind using 252 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 1: a handcuff from another team and drafting them. Getting Jonathan Williams, 253 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: for instance, if you're a Le'Veon Bell owner is a 254 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: good idea because if Leshaw McCoy gets hurt, you have 255 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,679 Speaker 1: a chance of having another usable back on your team. 256 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: But if you had James Connor instead, all you're doing 257 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: is limit your upside. This next one is from Twitter 258 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: at Tyler Strong ninety five. If Sterling Shepard misses significant time, 259 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: who do you expect rises the most in your model? 260 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 1: So the Giants ran more three wide receiver sets than 261 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: any other team in football last year, and they don't 262 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 1: have a player to fill the slot role as well 263 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: as Sterling Shepherd can fill it. Really, Sterling Shepherd is 264 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: so perfect in that offense from a real football standpoint 265 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 1: that losing him would be a big deal. 266 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 2: Over all to that team. I truly truly believe that. 267 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: Fortunately, it sounds like he's going to be okay with 268 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: just an ankle sprain, which is great news. But if 269 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: he were to be out, I would think they'd have 270 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: to accelerate what they want to do with Evan Ingram 271 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 1: pretty quickly. He's a pass catching tight end and would 272 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 1: steal some looks in that area of the field, and 273 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 1: they'd also move Odell Beckham around the field more. I 274 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 1: would assume the guys that who'd benefit most though, would 275 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: be if one of their backup wide outs could step 276 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: up and play the slot, or again if Evan Ingram 277 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: himself could step up. But both scenarios there are incredibly risky. 278 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: Hopefully we don't have to worry about it either, and 279 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: Sheppard will just be fine. This next one is from 280 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: at More Better than You, Pats, and he says PPR 281 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: versus standard discussion, how often does a player catch the 282 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 1: ball at or behind the line of scrimmage and not 283 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: gain positive yardage? Well, Pat, I can tell you that 284 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: a zero or negative yardage reception happened a grand total 285 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 1: of two hundred and ninety two times last year. Mark 286 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: Ingram led the league with seven of those receptions, and 287 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 1: Jarvis Landry, Jerrick McKinnon, TJ. Yeldon, and Todd Gurley each 288 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 1: had six. But here's the thing, and this is why 289 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,679 Speaker 1: I wanted to answer this question on this week's podcast. 290 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: People hate PPR leagues because players catch passes for negative 291 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: yards and they get rewarded for that, or they catch 292 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: passes for three, four or five yards that do nothing 293 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:40,839 Speaker 1: to the end total. They're not really helping their team 294 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: that much. All you haters need to realize that fantasy 295 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: football is nothing like real football in. 296 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 2: The first place, So why does this matter so much? 297 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: If fantasy football is like real football, then quarterbacks would 298 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: actually matter and we wouldn't be selecting running backs with 299 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: their first and second overall picks this season unless you're 300 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars. But seriously, if you know these are 301 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 1: the rules, then play into them. And it's not like 302 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: it's going to make this ultra significant difference. Sure, some 303 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: players are better in PPR than they are in standard, 304 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 1: but it's not like one wide out goes from wide 305 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: receiver fifty four to wide receiver thirteen when changing the scoring. 306 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 1: I just think the PPR to non PPR debate has 307 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 1: run its course and we all need to realize that 308 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: fantasy football is not real football and it's never been 309 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: real football. This next one is from Twitter at sh 310 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: one t. I don't want to say that out loud, 311 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: don't stop. Is it realistic that Mike Evans becomes the 312 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: overall wide receiver number one? Is it crazy to draft 313 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: him ahead of ab Julio Jones and OBJ. 314 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 2: Yes, I think that's crazy. And here's why. 315 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: As much as I like Mike Evans the player, we 316 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 1: can't ignore what happened last year, which is a lot 317 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 1: like what happened to DeAndre Hopkins in twenty fifteen. The 318 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: difference is that the following year for Evans features an 319 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: up and coming quarterback in Jamis Winston and not brock Osweiler. 320 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 1: Last season, Evans had an absurd near thirty percent market 321 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: share in the Bucks offense, but a lot of his 322 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy three target total came during the 323 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: first half of the season when the Buccaneers struggled. They 324 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: were three to five to start the season, and at 325 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: that point, Evans was averaging twelve point six to three 326 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: targets per game. Over those eight games, he ranked outside 327 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: the top fifteen in weekly PPR, scoring just twice, which 328 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: is absolutely insane. As we know, the Bucks finished their 329 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 1: season nine to seven. Across the second half of the 330 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: year as a winning team, their defensive efficiency got a 331 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: lot better, and their drop back to run ratio dropped 332 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: from one point five to two to one point two zero. 333 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 1: Evans went from averaging those twelve point six to three 334 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: targets per game to eight point four to three over 335 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 1: the second half of the season. At his second half 336 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: fantasy points per game pace, he was a fringe wide 337 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: receiver one in fantasy football. So Evans is still good 338 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: in a useful fantasy asset, But you figure there's more 339 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 1: competition for targets with Deshaun Jackson in the mix, and 340 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: the Bucks in general could continue with more positive game scripts. 341 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: That just means there may not be as much volume 342 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 1: as we'd like from a top receiver in fantasy football. 343 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: This next one is from Twitter Michael Broadbent at Dat's 344 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: Underscore Boy Underscore mikey B. What are the metrics slash 345 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: main factors you look at most when forecasting breakout players? 346 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: This is a great question. The obvious one is opportunity 347 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: or immediate opportunity. If they haven't broken out yet but 348 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 1: will certainly be on the field, then that's the first step. 349 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: But I also like to look at situations that seem 350 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: locked in but maybe have starters who are questionable. I 351 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: hate to do this, but Rob Kelly and Washington will 352 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: start out with that job. But he's not someone who 353 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 1: scares the hell out of me. If I'm a samaj 354 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: p Ryan owner That's sort of how things were with 355 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: Jeremy Langford last season in Chicago. Now, I'm not saying 356 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: Samaj p Ryan will be Jordan Howard or more than 357 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 1: likely he won't be, but those are the types of 358 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: running back situations that you should look for. I also 359 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 1: like associating my players with good offenses. Devonte Adams is 360 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: a good example of this. Does he do what he 361 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: did last year without Aaron Rodgers? 362 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 2: Probably not. 363 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: He scored way more touchdowns than he should have based 364 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: on simple regression analysis, but he was also able to 365 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: be incredibly fantasy relevant thanks to Aaron Rodgers. Combining the 366 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: good offense notion and maybe an unstable starter situation leads 367 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 1: you to DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. By the way, 368 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: those two guys are perfect examples. And then I also 369 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: care about college profiles and athleticism. That's why I lean 370 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,680 Speaker 1: DeAndre Washington's way in that scenario, because his college profile 371 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: trumps Jalen Richards. But I'm also realistic and know that 372 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: either could emerge if something happens to the thirty one 373 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 1: year old Marshawn Lynch. So I'll try to get exposure 374 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 1: to both players It's really about opportunity and talent and 375 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 1: then taking that and associating it with the best offenses 376 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 1: that you can find. You'll have Josh Gordon type players 377 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: that will happen, but it's a lot easier for players 378 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 1: to break out in good offenses than in bad ones. 379 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: This last one is an email from Dan genty. Do 380 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: you think that in D two The Mighty Ducks, when 381 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: Team USA goes to the schoolyard to play the kids, 382 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 1: that when Luis Mendoza crashes into the chain linked fence 383 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,360 Speaker 1: and the other kids say use the brakes, baby, that 384 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: that was the first time ever that someone told Mendoza 385 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 1: to stop, and that his whole not being able to 386 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 1: stop problem is that no one ever told him to stop. 387 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: Thanks Dan, guys. When I got this email to my 388 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: inbox last week, my mind was blown. Thank you Dan 389 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: for this fan theory because I think you're correct. And 390 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 1: by the way, Mighty Ducks two, whether you guys want 391 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: to believe me or not, is a top five best 392 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 1: movie of all time. That'll do it for me though, guys, 393 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 1: thanks for tuning in to this week's show. As always, 394 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: you can ask questions for the Mailbag by emailing me 395 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 1: at jjat number fire dot com or hitting me up 396 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Late ROUNDQBB. And also also there's a 397 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: new thing happening on the show this week. From now 398 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 1: until the start of football season, I'm going to select 399 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 1: two people randomly who leave a Late Round podcast rating 400 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 1: and review on iTunes to win a free Number five 401 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: Premium membership for a year for a year. I know 402 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 1: that I work there, but that is incredible value because 403 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 1: it's free and all you have to do is go 404 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 1: to iTunes and say that this podcast is terrible and 405 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 1: give me a one star review. I'm kidding about that part, 406 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: of course, but I don't want to leave the amazing 407 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: people who rated the show already hanging, and I've actually 408 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,479 Speaker 1: selected one of you to win the exact same prize. 409 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 1: Right for you, eight who posts a review, You've won 410 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: a free Number five Premium subscription for a year. Hit 411 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: me up via email at jjnumber five dot com, make 412 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,680 Speaker 1: the subject line I freaking one, and I'll give you 413 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: your prize. But also don't forget to subscribe to the 414 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,959 Speaker 1: show pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. Leave that 415 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 1: review on iTunes and be ready for next week because 416 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: I'll be back in your ears on Tuesday. 417 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 2: Enjoy your weekend. Everyone,