1 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: A year and a week ago, we were here in 3 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: New York at the United Nations warning the world about 4 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: the impending Russian base. Prutin is the aggressor. Prutin chose 5 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: this war and now he and his country with burger consequence. 6 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 1: Yugraine did un full. Ugrain is alive and Keegan Bloomberg 7 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: sound on Politics, policy and perspective from DC's top name. 8 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: Ukrian is not asking anybody else to do their fighting 9 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: for them. They need to be able to go beyond 10 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: to push the Russians out of their territory, and they're 11 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: going to need air cover for that. Bloomberg Sound On 12 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It's been one year 13 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 1: and there is no end in sight. Welcome to the 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: fastest hour in politics as we mark the first anniversary 15 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: of the war in Ukraine. With thoughts from California Congressman 16 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: John Garamendi, who just returned from the region and he'll 17 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: be with us in a moment. Will also speak with 18 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:06,319 Speaker 1: Evelyn Farkas, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia 19 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 1: and Ukraine, now executive director of the McCain Institute, where 20 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 1: the conversation is already focusing on rebuilding and as the 21 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: debate over funding the war effort continues here in Washington, 22 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: we're joined by our signature panel for analysis. A year later, 23 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzano are with 24 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: us for the hour. One year later, and an important 25 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 1: meeting of the UN Security Council today where Secretary of 26 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: State Anthony B. Lincoln gave a big thumbs down if 27 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: I can say that on a proposed peace plan that 28 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: came from China. Yes, China, which shocker favors Russia in 29 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: the outcome. Here's the Secretary. Council members should not be 30 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: fooled by calls for a temporary or unconditional ceasefire. Russia 31 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: will use any pause in fighting to consolidate control over 32 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: the territory it's illegally seized and replenish his forces for 33 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: further attacks. That's what happened when Russia's first assault on 34 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: Ukraine froze in twenty fifteen, with a so called Spring 35 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: offensive already in the works. Here several of it's a 36 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: twelve point plan from Beijing, and several of them as 37 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 1: I mentioned, would certainly offer benefits to Vladimir Putin, not 38 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: a shocker. With the two countries in cooperation. The ceasefire 39 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: would freeze Russian troops in place on Ukrainian territory, and 40 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: would call to immediately end all sanctions not endorsed by 41 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: the UN Security Council, which again includes Russia and its 42 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: veto power. Our ambassador to the UN led to Thomas Greenfield, 43 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: today speaking to this divided body, if I can say 44 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: as much about the human toll of the past year, listen, 45 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: it is hard to overstate how much unnecessary anguish and 46 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: pain President Putin has caused. The bombing of kindergartens and 47 00:02:53,600 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: high schools and hospitals, the slaughters of innocent civilian well 48 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: guess what. Even holding a moment of silence for victims 49 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: of the conflict in Ukraine proved too difficult for the 50 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: Security Council. The Russian ambassador said, you're turning the Council 51 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: into your own instrument, objecting to a decision to let 52 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: Ukraine's foreign minister deliver a speech before the fifteen members 53 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: of the Security Council did so. An inauspicious start to 54 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 1: the meeting, as Courtney McBride writes today on the terminal, 55 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 1: we have a lot to talk about one year later 56 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: with Congressman John Garamendi. Of course, the Democrat from California 57 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: has been with us many times. In fact, the last 58 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: time he was with us, he had just returned from 59 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: a special codel to Taiwan. He has just now returned 60 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: from a journey to the Polish Ukrainian border, and Congressman 61 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: I thank you for sharing some time with us here 62 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: on this important first anniversary. Is it possible for Ukraine 63 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: to win this before you and I are talking about 64 00:03:52,720 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: the second anniversary? Quite possibly, quite possibly, if Russia is 65 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: unable to obtain weapons to replenish its depleted stock player 66 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: they've lost over half the tanks and over two hundred 67 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: thousand soldiers. It's possible, but we have to continue to 68 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: provide Ukraine all of the useful military equipment that it 69 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:23,679 Speaker 1: needs to prosecute this war. And also we need to 70 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: continue to support Ukraine, keeping in mind that we're not 71 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: alone in this. NATO countries are in for as much 72 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: as we've in. We put in whatever amount of money 73 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: it is and whatever armaments. NATO countries have done a 74 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: similar amount and European Union also, so this coalition remains strong. 75 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 1: If we remain strong, we've got a chance of winning 76 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 1: this thing, either all out or add a very adentagious 77 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 1: negotiating situation. Your use of the term useful is important here. 78 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 1: Weapons that are useful to the effort, because Ukraine is 79 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: asking for everything. Congre when you know that, what's the 80 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: most useful thing we can give now, well, we must 81 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: continue to provide the heavy artillery, the long range rockets 82 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: that we presently have used, have given to them, and 83 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 1: continue to support the eastern naval countries that have Soviet 84 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: era make jet fighters which are quite good and are 85 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 1: useful to the Ukrainians. They know how to maintain, they 86 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: know how to fly them. But the countries are frankly 87 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 1: frightened to give those two Ukraine unless they can backfill 88 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: with war modern jets from the west. So it's kind 89 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: of like the issue with the tanks. Then we send 90 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: some F sixteens over that unlocks the MiGs that they 91 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: can start flying tomorrow. Is that right? Yeah? From those 92 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: Natal countries, that is correct, and they know how to 93 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: maintain them, they know how to fly them, and they're 94 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: quite good for the purposes there to send up sixteens 95 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: requires a significant maintenance program as well as a training program. 96 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: And similarly with the ABLEMS tanks, which are in and 97 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 1: of themselves extraordinary pieces of equipment, but again the maintenance 98 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 1: and the like. Now we are sending NATO tanks, German 99 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: Leopard tanks, the French and the United Kingdom tanks are 100 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: going and eventually, and I think far too late, but 101 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 1: eventually the Ablens tanks will arrive. The real question is 102 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 1: can we get these things, these heavy armaments, in place 103 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: by in time for Ukraine to conduct its own spring offensive. 104 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 1: And the answer I got from the military on our 105 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:46,239 Speaker 1: journey last week is it can be done. It's a rush, 106 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: it's a significant challenge, but it is actually happening now, 107 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: and the question is will there be sufficient to deal 108 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 1: with that? Keeping in mind that right now Russia is 109 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: on the offense and frankly they're not doing very well. 110 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: They are making just incremental I mean like a hundred 111 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 1: yard advances and then style, so we'll see if they 112 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: abustion the dance continues to peter out, then that then 113 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: sets up Ukraine for its own offense, and that will 114 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: be very very critical in any negotiations if they are 115 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: to take place. Congressmen, you served on the Armed Services Committee, 116 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: your ranking member of the Subcommittee on Readiness. You have 117 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: a perspective that most people do not have. What are 118 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: your contacts on the ground telling you with regard to 119 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: a spring offensive? Has it in fact already begun? Well, 120 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: certainly the Russians have, and it's not going well for them. 121 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: They're just stalling out the Ukrainian spring of fancy. No, 122 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 1: it is not begun. They are very carefully, with good 123 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: planning and very good strategic and tactical thought and plans, 124 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: preparing for a spring of fancy. We don't know exactly 125 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 1: where it will be on the eight hundred mile front line, 126 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: and we don't really know, and if we didn't know, 127 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: we will not be telling anybody but the fact as 128 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: we don't know. But the equipment is flowing in. That's 129 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 1: one of the things we saw when we were in Poland, 130 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: where about eighty percent of equipment closed through Poland. We 131 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: were right at the border, a big seven forty seven 132 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: arrived as we did, and by the time we got 133 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: to the airfield and got off our own plane that 134 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 1: the munitions we're talking about heavy munitions one hundred and 135 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: fifty five millimeters artillery and rockets of all kinds was 136 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: on the tarmac and was being loaded onto various vehicles 137 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,839 Speaker 1: to get into Ukraine and onto the front line. And 138 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 1: we looked at all the documentation. We followed it all 139 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: the way from the American Arsenals. Same things happening with 140 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: the Natal countries. This is great firsthand information that we 141 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 1: wouldn't be hearing from anyone else, Congressman. So they're using 142 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 1: the big cargo version of the seven four seven to 143 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 1: get stuff over there. John Kirby today talked about this 144 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: very effort. Weapons going in, but Ukrainian forces coming out 145 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 1: so we can train them. The spokesman of course for 146 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: the National Security Apparatus at the White House, Listen, we're 147 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: not wasting this time. We are taking battalions of the 148 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: Ukrainian soldiers out of Ukraine to a site outside the 149 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 1: country and training them on what we call combined arms maneuver. 150 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: This is really important, Congressman, and it's a it's a 151 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: massive training program that I know the Pentagon recently expanded. 152 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 1: Are we using our time wisely as we prepare for spring? 153 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 1: I think we are, And that's an example of it, 154 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: and it's not just the United States. The Natal countries 155 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 1: are doing the same. And this combined arms is really 156 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 1: not new to the Ukrainians. Obviously they significantly expanded their 157 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: army and military. But the United States has been in 158 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: Ukraine since two fourteen when Russia the first time that 159 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: was in Crimea in the Don Boston Eastern area. We 160 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 1: have been there back to the California National Guard and 161 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: other elements of National Guard around the nation have been 162 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: in Ukraine training their soldiers on how to use combined arms. 163 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: And this is air, it's artillery, armaments various and as 164 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 1: well as infantry. So all of that is underway, and 165 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 1: it is the rankly to build up together with the 166 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: arrival of the equipment for a spring fantasy that the 167 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: Russia knows it. So they're trying to get ahead. That 168 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: is Russia's trying to get ahead with its own offense. 169 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: But it's not going well for Russia. It hasn't gone 170 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: well for Russia from the get go. Here you just 171 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: came back from the region, and so did President Biden. Congressman, 172 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: I wonder how important you think it is having made 173 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: that journey already for more American politicians like yourself to 174 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: make the way to Kiev, to walk around with your 175 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 1: head high, even in the presence of Aird sirens. As 176 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: we saw with the President's trip this week, how important 177 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: is the American presence in Ukraine's capital. It's very, very important. 178 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: And many of my colleagues have gone this trip. We 179 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: were looking at a special part of it, that is 180 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:19,319 Speaker 1: the throw of equipment. Yeah, we did not go into Ukraine, 181 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 1: but many of my colleagues have, and I think it's 182 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: very very important. I think the President's trip was absolutely 183 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: astounding and outstanding. He showed extraordinary leadership, standing with an 184 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: extraordinary leader, Selinski. These two men have really led the 185 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: way to think about this. When Donald Trump left office 186 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:43,959 Speaker 1: two years and two months ago, NATO was really on 187 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: its knees. It really had been torpedoed by Trump, and 188 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 1: Trump basically dismissed it over and over and over again, 189 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: and United and the European Union similarly had lost faith 190 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: in America, and France and Germany were in the process 191 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: of putting together a different defense alliance because they at 192 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: that time believed that the United States would not stand 193 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: with them. So Biden comes along and within one year 194 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 1: had reassembled the strongest alliance in the world, not just 195 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: natal at all, of the European Union and wisely allowed 196 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: the European countries to go first, and cemented in place 197 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: an extraordinary alliance of a hundred and forty countries around 198 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 1: the world that are that are opposed both politically and 199 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 1: in many many cases with money and armaments to help 200 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: Ukraine fight its battle for its freedom and its democracy. Congressman, 201 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 1: I appreciate you're making the journey and sharing some of 202 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 1: it with us. Thank you for being with us today. 203 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 1: John Garamendi, the Democrat from California on the Armed Services Committee, 204 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: with a firsthand view of the billions of dollars in 205 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: weaponry we are sending to Ukraine and that critical crossing 206 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: point in Poland. We want to assemble the panel. We're 207 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: going to spend the rest of the hour with Rick 208 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 1: Davis and Jeannie Chanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors who were with us, 209 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:16,319 Speaker 1: of course on this day one year ago. Your thoughts today, Rick, 210 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 1: knowing that this was supposed to be over in five days, 211 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 1: Remember Kiev was going to fall when Vladimir Putin railroaded 212 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: through Kiev. Yeah, this is one of the things I've 213 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 1: been most impressed by President Zelinski, who's had every earlier 214 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: in the weeks, had every analyst that had predicted what 215 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: was going to happen during the course of this last year, 216 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 1: not just the first five days, has been wrong. This 217 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: has been probably the most poorly forecast battle in history 218 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 1: and has now become the largest war ground war in 219 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 1: Europe since World War Two. So there's it's not like 220 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: you could miss it. So I think this is probably 221 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,559 Speaker 1: the same alixir that we're going to have for this year, right, 222 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: I mean, like, if you believe you know what's going 223 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: to happen as an outcome by twenty twenty three, forget it, 224 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: because everybody was wrong in twenty two, and nobody's gotten 225 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: any better at it this year than they were last year. Genie, 226 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: let's talk about this piece plan offered by China. What 227 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: is Beijing trying to do here? Is this kind of 228 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 1: a favor. Did Vladimir Putin ask them to do this 229 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: so he could regroup for an offensive or actually does 230 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: he want them to bring this to some sort of 231 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: an end that saves the don boss in crimea for Russia? No, 232 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: you know, I think China is doing what it's doing 233 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: in its own best interest, and of course Vladimir Putin 234 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: is trying to wait this out. He is looking quite 235 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: frankly at the split screens, for instance, we see in 236 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 1: the US, and not just the US between East Palestine 237 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: and Ukraine, but across Europe, and he is saying to himself, 238 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: if I can hold out as long as it takes, 239 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: is what the president said. But that's also what President 240 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: Putin said, as long as it takes. The longer he 241 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: thinks he can hold out, the better chance he thinks 242 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: he has of watching this allied force collapse under domestic pressure, 243 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 1: and he then will have his win. So I don't 244 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: think China is doing this for Russia. I think China 245 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: is doing what it feels it's in its best interest, 246 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: which is some kind of negotiated peace that favors Russia. 247 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: And of course that's not something that NATO or the 248 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: United States is going to accept, or certainly Ukraine. Listen 249 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: to Anthony B. Lincoln today again before the UN Security Council, 250 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: describing the toll this is taken on Russia. Russia is lost, 251 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: by public accounts, either killed or wounded, two hundred thousand people. 252 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: A million Russians have fled the country since last February, 253 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: including the most educated, the best, and the brightest. I 254 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 1: know one guy who is right about the Russian military 255 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: a year ago, and it was Rick Davis when he said, 256 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: don't believe what you're hearing from Moscow. This is a 257 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 1: group known for drunkenness and sloth. That's a direct quote Rick. 258 00:15:56,320 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: What's left in the Russian military, Well, I mean conscripts, prisoners. 259 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: We hear every day of Russian prisoners being either captured 260 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: or fled the Russian ranks, and who are talking out 261 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: loud about the dismal conditions that exist within the Russian military. 262 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: And I would say too, I mean, just a note 263 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 1: about China's motivations. Yeah, I mean Ladim Putin was supposed 264 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: to be having a big day this week. He was 265 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 1: supposed to be talking about all these victories that he's 266 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: not getting. So he needs all the high cover he 267 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: can get. Rick Davis and Jeannie Chanzano. We add next 268 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: the voice of doctor Eveldon Farcas from the McCain Institute 269 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: on the idea of rebuilding on this first anniversary. This 270 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. 271 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at five Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 272 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. 273 00:16:55,400 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. A 274 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: year and a week ago, we were here in New 275 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: York of the United Nations, warning the world about the 276 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 1: impending Russian invasion and of course laying out how it 277 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: would happen. And that's exactly what happened. Here we are 278 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: now a year later. Ukraine is still standing, it remains free, 279 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: it remains independent. It is hard to overstate how much 280 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:22,639 Speaker 1: unnecessary anguish and pain President Putin has caused, the bombing 281 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: of kindergartens and high schools and hospitals, the slaughters of 282 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: innocent civilians. This war has no timeline. It has only 283 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: the result in the end, and that's victory because we 284 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 1: stand for the right cause, we defend ourselves. We're liberating 285 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: our territory. You look at the timeline for the year, 286 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 1: when does the weather start improving for either the Russians 287 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 1: to conduct an offensive where the Ukrainians to beat them 288 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: to the punch. It's a war and there's give and take, 289 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: there's action, reaction and counteraction. But despite being outgunned, an 290 00:17:55,600 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: out man. Ukrainians have demonstrated superior tactical efficiency, and they've 291 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: demonstrated a superior will to fight, you know, for devitt 292 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 1: to be able to defeat Galia. David nitz A Slink. 293 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 1: Ukraine clearly believes that it can win, and so does 294 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 1: everyone here. And that is the message today from Voladimir Zelenski, 295 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: one year into the war, saying, quote, I am sure 296 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: there will be victory. Speaking to reporters, I would like 297 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: it this year. He said, we have everything for this. 298 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: Does Ukraine have everything for this? Because there's an ask 299 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 1: for a lot more. And that's where we begin our conversation, 300 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:42,119 Speaker 1: an important one with doctor Eveldon Farkas, executive director of 301 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 1: the McCaine Institute, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for 302 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: Russia Ukraine in Eurasia. Eveldin, thanks for being with us 303 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg. Well, thank you so much, Joe. It's a 304 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: pleasure to be here, our pleasure to have you. Your 305 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: message has been consistent. Time is not on Ukraine's side. 306 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 1: You were saying that months ago. As we mark one year, 307 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 1: will it be possible for Ukraine to win this war 308 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 1: without fighter jets or without the long range missiles that 309 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: they continue to ask for. It's possible. It's not impossible, 310 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: but it's a whole lot probable that they can win 311 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: the war if they get those weapons. They need the weapons, 312 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,120 Speaker 1: not just to defend what they have right now, Joe, 313 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,679 Speaker 1: but frankly, they need to be able to go beyond 314 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: to push the Russians out of their territory, and they're 315 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 1: going to need air cover for that, and they're going 316 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: to need artillery that ranges farther into and behind Russian lines. 317 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 1: It's been said that US could train Ukrainians on F 318 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 1: sixteens and a couple of weeks time, maybe a month 319 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 1: or two, as they already know how to fly the 320 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 1: Russian made mid twenty nine. Is that accurate? I've heard 321 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 1: different ranges so, and since I'm not an actual F 322 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 1: sixteen pilot, I'm going to defer the question. But I 323 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: think what we have seen all along is that every 324 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: time there was a long sort of the normal timeframe 325 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: that you need to t regular troops in peace time, 326 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians have shown that in wartime, highly motivated troops 327 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: can learn faster. So I'm sure that we can get 328 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,919 Speaker 1: them trained faster. And frankly, you know, Joe, I wouldn't 329 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: be surprised if somewhere we are actually training Ukrainians on 330 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: F sixteens on other fighters. It's interesting you say that 331 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 1: because there's been a call recently to start training them now. 332 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: Figure out if you want to give them the jets later, 333 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: but start training them now, because this is going to 334 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 1: take a minute. And it sounds like you agree. I 335 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,239 Speaker 1: agree one hundred percent. And as I said, it's not 336 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: out of the realm of the possible that we are 337 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 1: already doing that for the Ukrainians. You know, we don't 338 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: have to tell the world what we're doing all the 339 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,399 Speaker 1: time ahead of time, so but I do think that 340 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 1: it would really be a game changer for the Ukrainians. 341 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 1: I have an op ed coming out on this subject. 342 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:57,160 Speaker 1: My co author is General David Deptula, one of those 343 00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: Air Force fighter pilots who could answer that question more 344 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,199 Speaker 1: accurately than I can. He's been great actually sharing his 345 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,640 Speaker 1: views and guiding us through this past year, and you're 346 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,880 Speaker 1: certainly keeping good company in your op ed. Without these weapons, Evelyn, 347 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: does that simply prolong a war of attrition? Yes? And 348 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: I mean, ultimately what we want for Ukraine is to win, 349 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: to push the Russians out of their territory. Short of that, 350 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,360 Speaker 1: we want them to have the strongest hand in negotiations 351 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: when and if the Russians are serious about negotiations. So 352 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: it's all about helping the Ukrainians and helping them get 353 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 1: to that point as fast as possible, because until the 354 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: Russians decide they want to sue for peace, either because 355 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: they've been run out of Ukraine or they realize they're 356 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: going to lose, the Ukrainians are going to lose people, 357 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: and every day that the war goes on there's a 358 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: greater risk that it could spread, you know, frankly, to 359 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,919 Speaker 1: other countries in the region and even to NATO. So 360 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 1: there are questions about what's going to be different about 361 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: the second year. Is that something the administration needs to 362 00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 1: start answering. I think they have answered it, frankly, with 363 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 1: the new equipment that they have given Ukraine. Don't forget 364 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 1: it was pretty recent that they proved handing tanks or 365 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 1: giving tanks to Ukrainians, and that is part of the 366 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: equation when you think about Ukraine taking the offensive. The 367 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: air is also important. That's why, of course, myself in general, 368 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 1: Diptula and others are urging for fighter planes, but the 369 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: tanks are absolutely essential so that the Ukrainian forces can 370 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 1: defend themselves as they move forward. So in addition to that, 371 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:34,160 Speaker 1: of course, we've provided longer range although not quite as 372 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: long as the Ukrainians want artillery, and you know, we 373 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 1: are providing better air defense as well. So those things 374 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: will change the nature of the war and provide a 375 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 1: lot of advantage to the Ukrainian forces, Make no mistake, 376 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 1: but just that the additional pieces that are missing are 377 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 1: the air cover and the longer range artillery. As I mentioned, 378 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: you spent enough time with the Pentagon to probably have 379 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: a sense of what people are thinking there. How much 380 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: of this is the White House versus the Defense Department. 381 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 1: Do you get a sense of whether there's any sunlight 382 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:08,920 Speaker 1: in between the two to do military leaders want to 383 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 1: send this equipment. Actually, what's interesting, Joe, is that I 384 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: think they're pretty closely aligned right now, and the reason 385 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: for that has to do with what they started talking 386 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:21,120 Speaker 1: about publicly and we're only talking about privately before, which 387 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,200 Speaker 1: is our defense industrial base and our need to maintain 388 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 1: our deterrence of Russia. Now, of course, with the second one, 389 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 1: you can argue that Ukraine is fighting for US and 390 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 1: weakening Russia, but we still want to de Russia from 391 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: thinking that they can take advantage of NATO of any 392 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: other NATO country militarily. So we need to make sure 393 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 1: that we are fully equipped, that we have all the 394 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: weapons we need. And because of the defense industrial base, 395 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: this part that they've started talking about now, the fact 396 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 1: that our companies take a long time to manufacture. They 397 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: have been doing, you know, they really have been well. 398 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 1: Our government has been and the DoD has been taking 399 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: from inventory. They've started now manufacturing and started to try 400 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 1: to get the production lines going. But the whole procurement process, 401 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 1: the whole situation is such that we are far from 402 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 1: a wartime footing, yet indirectly we are at war right now. Evelyn, 403 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,119 Speaker 1: your McCain institute hosted a meeting earlier this month, a 404 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 1: meeting of what you're calling the Ukraine Business Alliance. You've 405 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 1: pulled together executives from the defense and tech industries, from government, 406 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 1: military leaders from Ukraine and the US to talk about 407 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 1: rebuilding Ukraine. How do you talk about rebuilding when people 408 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: are still dying every day in this war. Well, I 409 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 1: think what we realize with these defense tech companies and 410 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: tech companies. They're often not in the room when the 411 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 1: Defense Department is talking about the war, when the State Department, 412 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:52,360 Speaker 1: Defense Department and other agencies are talking about reconstruction. And 413 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: these companies can actually help Ukraine leap frog ahead. They 414 00:24:55,840 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: can help with accountability, with eliminating corruption. They can create 415 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 1: smarter cities, you know, just using their technology. So I 416 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 1: think that and frankly, we have to plan for reconstruction. Now. 417 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 1: If you watch the media, because we're in the one 418 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:16,680 Speaker 1: year anniversary, recently, one of the networks was showing footage 419 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,360 Speaker 1: they had a reporter on the ground in Bucha. If 420 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 1: you remember Bucha, that was one of the towns that 421 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:26,880 Speaker 1: where the Russians committed horrendous human rights atrocities and where 422 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,919 Speaker 1: the public first saw firsthand, but they also destroyed the 423 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,640 Speaker 1: infrastructure there. Well, Bucha is already being rebuilt. These places 424 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, they're not waiting, and I think what we 425 00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 1: want to do is make sure that they rebuild. To 426 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,359 Speaker 1: use Biden's phrase better. So if we're going to do it, 427 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 1: you know anywhere, let's start Ukraine. We might learn a 428 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,199 Speaker 1: few things that we can also apply here, which, by 429 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:48,879 Speaker 1: the way, is the case also when it comes to 430 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: the battlefield, well, we use money from Russia, maybe oil money. 431 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 1: However we get it material that's been seized to help 432 00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 1: pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. They're a whole most 433 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 1: of lawyers looking at this issue, government lawyers looking at 434 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 1: this issue right now. I know that the Ukrainian government, 435 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 1: that our government would very much like to do that. 436 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: And frankly, you know, if you talk to Russian dissidents 437 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: those of course who are not in power right now, 438 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,439 Speaker 1: they say, look, we owe it to Ukraine, so we 439 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: probably should use some of our sovereign funds to do that. 440 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 1: They destroyed the country, so I think part of the 441 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 1: cost will be borne by the Russian government absolutely, at 442 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 1: least the yacht Zeveln. Yes, take those yachts. I think 443 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 1: it's a really important conversation that you're having already at 444 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 1: the McCain Institute, that we'll be hearing about around the country. 445 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 1: We like to think months or maybe a year from now, 446 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 1: when we see some light at the end of the tunnel. Here. 447 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 1: Elton Farcas, the executive director of the McCain Institute, many 448 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 1: thanks for being with us today on Bloomberg. Thanks so much. Joe, 449 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 1: let's play this to the panel. Rick Davis, of course 450 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:57,880 Speaker 1: closely associated with the McCain Institute, and Jeanie Schanzano. Rick, 451 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,879 Speaker 1: you know, when you start talking about rebuilding, there's almost 452 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:05,439 Speaker 1: a moral component to this conversation. It feels cold to 453 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:09,200 Speaker 1: bring it up. But when you consider this idea, it's 454 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 1: it's something that we probably owe the Ukrainians to start 455 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 1: talking about. Now, do you agree? Yeah? Absolutely. I think 456 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 1: the point that Evelyn's making is they're already rebuilding. They're 457 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: not waiting for us to get in a conversation with them. 458 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,199 Speaker 1: They have an obligation to you know, house their country, 459 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 1: to feed their country, to you know, put people back 460 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,679 Speaker 1: to work. A lot of reports coming out of you know, Kieva, 461 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,119 Speaker 1: the street lights are back on. I mean, you know, 462 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: life is beginning to go again. You can get a 463 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,640 Speaker 1: reservation in a restaurant. I think this is a really 464 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 1: important component that President Zelenski has done and said, we're 465 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:42,680 Speaker 1: not going to wait till this war ends. We don't 466 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:44,120 Speaker 1: know when the war is going to end, so we're 467 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 1: going to continue to have life as Ukrainians the best 468 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 1: that we can. And so I do think that there's 469 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 1: a real focus on that in Ukraine, and I think 470 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,360 Speaker 1: the rest of the world needs to come to their aid. 471 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously there's a lot of economic aid in 472 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: addition to security aid going into Ukraine, and I think 473 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:01,480 Speaker 1: that needs to be the focus of a lot of 474 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: our attensition. We only ever talk about missiles and F 475 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 1: sixteens and things like that, and of course, you know, 476 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 1: we want to see those things in Ukraine so that 477 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 1: so that Zalnski can fight the war and the best 478 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,880 Speaker 1: he can. But part of that too is making sure 479 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 1: his homeland is healthy, and that is rebuilding their economy 480 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 1: and their cities and their towns. So, Genie, I feel 481 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,240 Speaker 1: like we've we've reached the chewy center here. As a 482 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 1: good friend of mine likes to say, this is the 483 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 1: important conversation that you know, we have to mark the 484 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: occasion here. There's going to be a lot of retrospectives. 485 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 1: There'll be some challenging interviews, I suspect, and some very 486 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 1: difficult memories. But rebuilding. We made it to this one 487 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: year mark. Rebuilding has to be part of the conversation 488 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 1: now it does. But of course when you talk about rebuilding, 489 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 1: you have to have a conversation that brings for us 490 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: the American public along, and this is where I think 491 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 1: we have to start. Well, we have to start to 492 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: hear more about what our role is in supporting Ukraine, 493 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 1: both in its war effort and getting Russia out and 494 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 1: then in the rebuilding process. And that's got to come 495 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 1: from leaders at the top. And this is why when 496 00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 1: we look at the polls and we see some drop off, 497 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 1: particularly among the right, they're still an awful lot of 498 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 1: support for Ukraine, but drop off in terms of you know, 499 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: when does this end? How much more of billions are 500 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 1: we going to give? It is incumbent on the president 501 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 1: to stand up and tell the American public why it's 502 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 1: in our interest to get Russia out and our interest 503 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 1: to rebuild or help in the rebuilding process over there. 504 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 1: And that's what I think we haven't heard enough of 505 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: answers to the questions of people who say, why is 506 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 1: it in our interest to be there? You've got to 507 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 1: address those people, not just the people talking about the 508 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 1: ideological component and autocracy versus democracy, but the hardcore money, 509 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 1: the hardcore strategic interest that we have in a country 510 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 1: that most Americans have never been to. Okay, I understood, 511 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 1: but rick are we talking about taxpayer money. Are we 512 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 1: talking about funneling Russian money and using private money as 513 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 1: well potentially uh to profit to rebuild Ukraine. Oh, I 514 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 1: think all of the above, the coalition that has been 515 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: built out of the McCain Institute, or private companies that 516 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: are talking about how they can especially apply their tech 517 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 1: capability to rebuild a smarter, more efficient u Ukraine. I 518 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 1: think that the US government, given billions of dollars already 519 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 1: to economic assistance, is going to have to be looking at, 520 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 1: you know, in a in a current environment, how to 521 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 1: maintain that. And of course, as Genie likes to point out, 522 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 1: there's a growing trend within the electorate to UH not 523 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 1: have as much enthusiasm towards you know, US government spending 524 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: in Ukraine as there is. And of course the Europeans 525 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 1: are a big part of this. There are partners, they've 526 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 1: shared the burden of spending both on security assistance and 527 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 1: in the economy and UH and that conversation has to 528 00:30:59,920 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: be sort of step by step with with with them 529 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 1: involved with to give us a sense the rick what 530 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,360 Speaker 1: you're learning at the institute about the types of are 531 00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: we talking about cloud companies, software companies, telecoms. Where's where's 532 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 1: the tech going to be useful for Ukraine? Well, we 533 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 1: already see it quite a bit in the news just 534 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 1: around uh startling's contribution to the coms that are going on. 535 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,959 Speaker 1: And it's not just to be ability for troops and 536 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 1: the government to talk. You know, Russia has basically wiped 537 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 1: out their domestic telecommunications capability, but um, but it's also 538 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:36,320 Speaker 1: the ability to just communicate domestically within the country and 539 00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 1: so that's been a huge help. And uh and and 540 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: I would say other companies like Palletteer who are a 541 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,920 Speaker 1: data company that have gone into Ukraine as a private 542 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: company willing to help out to enhance their use of 543 00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 1: ai US both on the battlefield and also in the 544 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 1: way they're running their government. And we're actually getting a 545 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:03,280 Speaker 1: lot of really incredible experience and data around how ai 546 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 1: on a battlefield is being applied and whether or not 547 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 1: there's an ethical innovation that occurs at the same time 548 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 1: that we're using this high technology that freaks me out. 549 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 1: Just to think about Genie. You think Elon Musk shows 550 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 1: up for this little project. I think if it's in 551 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,120 Speaker 1: his interest, he will. And you know that turning the 552 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:24,160 Speaker 1: satellites on and off. Right, he turns him on and off. 553 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 1: But you know, the reality is, and there's great statistics 554 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 1: as you go back through the wars that we have 555 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,200 Speaker 1: been a part of that we do are and I 556 00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 1: say we, I mean private corporations, private companies in the 557 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 1: US do benefit from going in and rebuilding in places 558 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,120 Speaker 1: where the US military has been. But it's not a 559 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: conversation we hear about. And that's what I mean. All 560 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: we hear is we have given thirty billion dollars, but 561 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 1: we don't hear about what we recoup in terms of 562 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,480 Speaker 1: the economics that come back and the rebuilding that occurs. 563 00:32:56,480 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 1: So it's an important conversation, but it's a hard conversation 564 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 1: and to have when people are dying. Eight million people displaced, 565 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 1: women and children, ninety percent of those you know, as 566 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 1: you were talking with Evelyn and talking to representatives, hundreds 567 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,120 Speaker 1: of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians lost. So it's a 568 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,360 Speaker 1: hard conversation to have. But the reality is the questions 569 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 1: being asked. The transactional argument is important to have, but 570 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 1: you've got to figure out how to weave it in 571 00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:25,320 Speaker 1: with a more important values question. How about corruption? Rick, 572 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 1: I hate to put a damper on things. But how 573 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,880 Speaker 1: does the United States government, if we're going to engage 574 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 1: in this, and the private sector for that matter, avoid 575 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 1: corruption that was long associated with Ukraine? Yeah? Sure, I 576 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 1: think it's a very legitimate question, and it's been raised 577 00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: quite a bit lately, both on the House and Senate floor, 578 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:47,200 Speaker 1: but also in Kiev. The President Silenski himself is address 579 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 1: the issue and actually rooted out a number of people 580 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 1: from his own government at a time when you know, 581 00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 1: it would be really easy to look past these kinds 582 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 1: of things when you're in a shooting war, you know, 583 00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,840 Speaker 1: in your own backyard. But he's addressed it because he 584 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:04,880 Speaker 1: knows his only ability to continue to foster the kind 585 00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 1: of generosity that these Western nations have heaped upon Ukraine 586 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,760 Speaker 1: is that if he has taken care of their funds, 587 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:16,799 Speaker 1: and in any scanal associated with that will only deteriorate 588 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 1: the goodwill that already exists amongst the electorates which allow 589 00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 1: these governments to make these big contributions. So, Genie, is 590 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 1: that part of the communication then that needs to come 591 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 1: from the administration. You're talking about telling the other side 592 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,239 Speaker 1: of the story. But what the US is I guess 593 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,799 Speaker 1: gaining from this or what sort of relying on this 594 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 1: for national security and so many other reasons economic issues. 595 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,920 Speaker 1: Does the administration also need to tell that story that, 596 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 1: you know what, we've got an eye on corruption and 597 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 1: it's not what you think they do. I will tell 598 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,239 Speaker 1: you just anecdotally, I heard from a student who I 599 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,759 Speaker 1: didn't even realize was paying attention to this, But what 600 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 1: about all the corruption we hear about in Ukraine? People 601 00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 1: are concerned. We many Americans first recently heard about Ukraine. 602 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,839 Speaker 1: It was connected to a president being impeached, and then 603 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,480 Speaker 1: it came back around. But it's not something people pay 604 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:10,279 Speaker 1: attention to, but what they've heard raises concerns. So there 605 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 1: is widespread support among the American public for Ukraine and 606 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:17,320 Speaker 1: pushing Russia out. But you do have to address issues 607 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:21,320 Speaker 1: like how are we protecting the United States our interests 608 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:25,839 Speaker 1: and Ukraine against issues like corruption? And again, these are 609 00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 1: not easy conversations to have, and that's the difficulty here 610 00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 1: at a time of war and when people are being lost, 611 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,960 Speaker 1: So it's gonna be a real task. And plus you 612 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: have a president who may run for reelection and he 613 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 1: will be hit by the same argument. George hw Bush 614 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,040 Speaker 1: was in nineteen ninety one. Why are you in Rome, Italy? 615 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: Get back to Rome, Georgia and Rome New York and 616 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 1: do the work of the American public. So it's a 617 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,000 Speaker 1: difficult conversation for the administration to have. He's got to 618 00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,680 Speaker 1: get surrogates out having it more and speaking to the 619 00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 1: American public. I understand why he didn't address it in 620 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,880 Speaker 1: the State of the Union for political reasons, but it 621 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,560 Speaker 1: was a loss of a twenty eight thirty million Americans watching, 622 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:11,560 Speaker 1: a big audience loss. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound 623 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,040 Speaker 1: on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at five Eastern on 624 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, Bihart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business 625 00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 1: App for listen on demand wherever you get your podcast. 626 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,879 Speaker 1: You've heard the chorus for months, not just recently, not 627 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,400 Speaker 1: just this year, but over the past several months, a 628 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:35,719 Speaker 1: chorus from the Republican side of the House largely and 629 00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,920 Speaker 1: the more conservative side of the Republican Party in the House. 630 00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,560 Speaker 1: Here we think Matt Gates, Marjorie Taylor Green, but also 631 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 1: to an extent, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, No more blank checks. Right, 632 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:51,080 Speaker 1: There's going to be a more difficult conversation about funding 633 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 1: the war effort. Here's the speaker back in November. But 634 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,560 Speaker 1: I'm not for a blank check for anything. This is 635 00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,440 Speaker 1: hard working taxpayer money, and I want to make sure 636 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:03,600 Speaker 1: whatever funding we spend goes to the right places. Unfortunately, 637 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,720 Speaker 1: under the current majority of Democrats with full body control 638 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,879 Speaker 1: what they put on the floor last time, they never 639 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:13,040 Speaker 1: gave members an opportunity to even have input. Well, now 640 00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,520 Speaker 1: he's of course in the majority. And as a more 641 00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 1: extreme example, here Congressman Mac Gates from Florida and his 642 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,279 Speaker 1: take on this back in November. Again, I will not 643 00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:27,000 Speaker 1: vote for one more dollar to Ukraine. I will not 644 00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,719 Speaker 1: vote for one more piece of material to Ukraine. We 645 00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:34,400 Speaker 1: are far too entangled in this conflict. I believe we 646 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 1: have extended this conflict, and I call on the Secretary 647 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:44,480 Speaker 1: of Defense to declassify the Inspector General report on the 648 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:49,319 Speaker 1: compliance with our existing regulations regarding chain of custody with 649 00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:54,280 Speaker 1: material going to another country. It's interesting, having just heard 650 00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,000 Speaker 1: Congressman John Garamendi on the program about a half hour 651 00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,960 Speaker 1: ago talk about the end to end cataloging of weaponries 652 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:06,280 Speaker 1: going from the US into Ukraine. Let's reassemble the panel. 653 00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,279 Speaker 1: Genie Schanzano, when Rick Davis are with us for the 654 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,840 Speaker 1: hour here as we mark the first anniversary of the 655 00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:15,239 Speaker 1: war in Ukraine. Rick, how much of this is a 656 00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,879 Speaker 1: growing sentiment in the Republican Party or did it peak 657 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,719 Speaker 1: with the midterms. Well, I'll just remind you matc Gett 658 00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:24,920 Speaker 1: said the same thing about never voting for Speaker McCarthy, 659 00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,280 Speaker 1: and he did wind up caven in the fifteenth ballot. 660 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,879 Speaker 1: So I anticipate that though there's going to be sort 661 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:32,960 Speaker 1: of the putin wing of the Republican Party in the 662 00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,040 Speaker 1: House that are going to continue to grasp about this. 663 00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:39,279 Speaker 1: But the vast majority of Republicans joined with Democrats to 664 00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,800 Speaker 1: have an overwhelming support in the Senate, in the House 665 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:48,439 Speaker 1: for the administration's efforts on Ukraine. But I would say 666 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:53,480 Speaker 1: it is becoming a partisan divide in with voters. If 667 00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:57,600 Speaker 1: you are a supporter the Biden administration, you are much 668 00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:01,640 Speaker 1: more likely almost you know, three to one, to be 669 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:05,880 Speaker 1: supportive of his efforts in the Ukraine then you otherwise 670 00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,120 Speaker 1: would be if you're a Republican. And so this is 671 00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,320 Speaker 1: something that the administration is going to have to really 672 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,080 Speaker 1: really pay a lot of attention to. So I do 673 00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:17,200 Speaker 1: think that we're going to have continuing support and new 674 00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:19,680 Speaker 1: funding initiatives that come up through the course of this 675 00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:24,360 Speaker 1: year for Ukraine. We're certainly not going to cap out 676 00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:28,480 Speaker 1: the most generous allocation of those funds that happen at 677 00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,680 Speaker 1: the end of last year, but it will be needed 678 00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:34,400 Speaker 1: in the future. The arguments that justifications are interesting to me. 679 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:37,520 Speaker 1: You know, Matt Gates there suggesting that we're not really 680 00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,320 Speaker 1: following the money here and don't know where it's going. 681 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:45,000 Speaker 1: There's been suggestions that there's corruption. Marjorie Taylor Green Genie 682 00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:48,080 Speaker 1: has said as much, that this has become a massive 683 00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:51,919 Speaker 1: money suck that's going to the wrong places. But also 684 00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,200 Speaker 1: this argument over the border that we've been hearing. Listen 685 00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,240 Speaker 1: to Marjorie Taylor Green. We had five million people cross 686 00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,960 Speaker 1: our border illegally since Joe Biden took office. And let's 687 00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,840 Speaker 1: compare that to how many Russians have invaded Ukraine. Eighty 688 00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:10,360 Speaker 1: two thousand Russians have invaded Ukraine. I think the American 689 00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,360 Speaker 1: people and the taxpayers of this country deserve to know 690 00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:17,680 Speaker 1: why the Biden administration and this Congress is so interested 691 00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,960 Speaker 1: in funding the protection of Ukraine's border and not the 692 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:24,319 Speaker 1: protection of our border. I hate to make you have 693 00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,919 Speaker 1: to react to that genie. But how is that logic flow? Well, 694 00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:31,520 Speaker 1: it's flood in so many ways. And thank you for asking. 695 00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,720 Speaker 1: But you know the reality is, we hear Marjorie Taylor 696 00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,960 Speaker 1: Green and Matt Gates. They are reacting to kernels of 697 00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,040 Speaker 1: ideas we see in the polling, and we all have 698 00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:44,440 Speaker 1: to take it seriously. Yes, it makes no sense to 699 00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,600 Speaker 1: compare Russians going over the border in Ukraine to what's 700 00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:51,200 Speaker 1: happening on our border. But the reality is there is 701 00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:54,640 Speaker 1: as Rick just talked about, a group of Americans in 702 00:40:55,960 --> 00:41:00,239 Speaker 1: the electorate for whom the amount of money and and 703 00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,279 Speaker 1: materials that we have given over to Ukraine, not to 704 00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:07,440 Speaker 1: mention the President's time, that they are concerned about, and 705 00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,200 Speaker 1: that's what I'm talking about. That has to be addressed. 706 00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,640 Speaker 1: And they are asking fair questions. Why are we there, 707 00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,800 Speaker 1: what's in our interests? Why does it make us more secure? 708 00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,280 Speaker 1: Why are we giving so much money? These are fair questions, 709 00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:22,719 Speaker 1: as is the question of what is the end game? 710 00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:26,160 Speaker 1: Those are the questions that President has to also address 711 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,799 Speaker 1: in addition to his values argument, which he makes repeatedly 712 00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:33,319 Speaker 1: and rightly so and so they are right to ask that. 713 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,680 Speaker 1: And there's a long history of this in the United States. 714 00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,080 Speaker 1: Don't forget it was Woodrow Wilson who first talked about 715 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,040 Speaker 1: America first that we should be neutral in World War One. 716 00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,839 Speaker 1: It picked up again in World War Two. Trump picked 717 00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,040 Speaker 1: it up in twenty sixteen, and it has some residence 718 00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:50,120 Speaker 1: in the electorate. And I will tell you, politically, a 719 00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:53,400 Speaker 1: big question remains if this war is the same today 720 00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,960 Speaker 1: as in twenty twenty four in the summer as it 721 00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,960 Speaker 1: is today, and Biden is running for president, that's a 722 00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,960 Speaker 1: hard political reality for him to face as people say, 723 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,560 Speaker 1: wait a minute, Afghanistan, now Ukraine. You've got us locked 724 00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,840 Speaker 1: up in these wars. Let's get somebody who's going to 725 00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,680 Speaker 1: focus on the homestead. That's a hard political argument. He's 726 00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:17,239 Speaker 1: gonna have to address. What of this argument or this comparison, 727 00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,120 Speaker 1: I don't know. I guess comparison with the border of 728 00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:22,279 Speaker 1: Ukraine the border of the United States. Rick, We've been 729 00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:25,640 Speaker 1: hearing that from quite a number of Republican lawmakers. Well, 730 00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,520 Speaker 1: the lack of moral clarity on that is insane, right, 731 00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:31,279 Speaker 1: I mean, like, first of all, we've had tens of 732 00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:35,920 Speaker 1: millions of people come across the border illegally and settled 733 00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,640 Speaker 1: in the United States and actually add to you know, 734 00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:43,120 Speaker 1: our economic and cultural enrichment. These are not people who 735 00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,400 Speaker 1: are going across the border to invade the country and 736 00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:49,520 Speaker 1: attack the people who are within it and try to 737 00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:53,239 Speaker 1: upset the overturn the government. In fact, the only people 738 00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,600 Speaker 1: have tried to overturn the government are the Marjorie Taylor 739 00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:58,200 Speaker 1: agreeing to the world. So, I mean, like, you know, 740 00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,760 Speaker 1: when you look for moral equivalence, it's just you can't 741 00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,400 Speaker 1: even address it. It makes absolutely no sense if somebody 742 00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:12,120 Speaker 1: had an army, if the Chinese decided to invade Hawaii 743 00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:16,239 Speaker 1: like they did in the Second World War, how would 744 00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,600 Speaker 1: Marjorie Taylor Green feel about that? Right? Would she have 745 00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:23,239 Speaker 1: the same attitude as she does about uh, you know, 746 00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:28,440 Speaker 1: Russia entering the sovereign territory of the Ukraine. So you know, 747 00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:32,640 Speaker 1: again you hate to give them too much time because 748 00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:36,040 Speaker 1: they are more nuisance players in American politics than than 749 00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,920 Speaker 1: power players. But the reality is we have to have 750 00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,560 Speaker 1: these conversations, we have to have the rationale around them. 751 00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:45,960 Speaker 1: And in the minute we give up on countries sovereign territory, 752 00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,400 Speaker 1: the minute someone says to the United States, well how 753 00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,640 Speaker 1: about your borders? How about whether or not you have 754 00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:56,600 Speaker 1: taken enough, you know, resources from other countries. That then 755 00:43:56,680 --> 00:44:00,680 Speaker 1: does become a chilling conversation to have when we have 756 00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:04,120 Speaker 1: such big competitors around the world. The amount of criticism 757 00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:09,440 Speaker 1: that President Zelenski gets as well, uh is really striking 758 00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,200 Speaker 1: at times. Genie, remember when he spoke to the Joint 759 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:15,880 Speaker 1: Session of Congress and he was heavily criticized for wearing 760 00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:20,200 Speaker 1: the you know, the fatigues or whatever I should call them, 761 00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:23,960 Speaker 1: the green you know outfit that he puts on there. 762 00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:27,200 Speaker 1: It was standing in solidarity with his soldiers. They said 763 00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:31,920 Speaker 1: it was disrespectful. Senator Ted Cruz got into this on 764 00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:36,080 Speaker 1: his podcast recently and took it a couple steps further. Listen, 765 00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:41,560 Speaker 1: he was a professional actor in a popular sitcom in 766 00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:46,160 Speaker 1: in Ukraine and and now he's president. He understands acting, 767 00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,839 Speaker 1: and so you know, it's a little jarring seeing all 768 00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:52,200 Speaker 1: of these images of him in a sweatshirt and fatigues 769 00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:57,400 Speaker 1: next to Biden in his pressed suit. Um, whether in 770 00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:00,520 Speaker 1: the Oval office or in Ukraine. You know, Lensky is 771 00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:02,680 Speaker 1: always in this outfit and it is a costume, and 772 00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:07,720 Speaker 1: he understands what he's doing. It is performance. An actor 773 00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:12,759 Speaker 1: wearing a costume, Genie, what's the point of going there 774 00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:17,879 Speaker 1: for Ted Cruz? Yeah, Ted Cruz talking about performative politics 775 00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:20,920 Speaker 1: is fascinating, you know. And we'd like to see what 776 00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:24,160 Speaker 1: Ted Cruz would do if he had a choice after 777 00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:27,240 Speaker 1: his country was invaded and he was god forbid the president, 778 00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:29,839 Speaker 1: if he would have done what Zelenski did and said 779 00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:31,439 Speaker 1: I don't want to ride out, I'm going to stay 780 00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:33,560 Speaker 1: in fight, or if he would have taken that ride out, 781 00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:35,560 Speaker 1: and we know what he would have done. So the 782 00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:40,160 Speaker 1: criticism of Zelenski's clothing from Ted Cruz is comical. The 783 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,759 Speaker 1: reality is is that Zelenski has proven himself to be, 784 00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,320 Speaker 1: you know, a leader, you know who is going to 785 00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:51,279 Speaker 1: go down in history for taking a fight to the 786 00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:54,040 Speaker 1: Russian army. I mean, as you said at the top, 787 00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,759 Speaker 1: imagine last year, if anybody thought this was going to 788 00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,319 Speaker 1: last more than a couple of days. That's why the 789 00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:01,600 Speaker 1: US government offered him a ride out and he stayed 790 00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,719 Speaker 1: to fight. So, you know, Ted Cruz should go on 791 00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:08,600 Speaker 1: his podcast and focus on other things besides Zelenski's clothing 792 00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,000 Speaker 1: for gosh sake. Well, actually, Ted Cruz is pretty good at, 793 00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,800 Speaker 1: you know, dressing up for for photo ops, these trips 794 00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,160 Speaker 1: to the border. Rick, He's he's set up there, you know, 795 00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,759 Speaker 1: practically with kevlar in the camouflage hat and the whole 796 00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:21,520 Speaker 1: thing on the gunboat. Uh So, I mean I suppose 797 00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:23,960 Speaker 1: that that that would be sort of familiar for him. 798 00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:28,000 Speaker 1: But I just I wonder what the aim is here 799 00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,319 Speaker 1: to discredit the president of Ukraine in the middle of 800 00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,319 Speaker 1: this war effort. Yeah, honestly, don't even take it as 801 00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:38,920 Speaker 1: as him being discredited. In other words, sure, it's a costume. 802 00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:41,759 Speaker 1: He is the president of a country that is undersieged 803 00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:45,279 Speaker 1: by its neighbor, and he's fighting a war every day. 804 00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,920 Speaker 1: He spends his time in Kiev. It's not like he's 805 00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:51,760 Speaker 1: spending his time in Palm Beach. And so the reality 806 00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:58,000 Speaker 1: is that he has used these, uh these props of office. Uh. 807 00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,960 Speaker 1: Zelenski has it in an incredibly effective way. I mean, 808 00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:04,879 Speaker 1: people have been referring to him as Churchillian. I mean, 809 00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:08,839 Speaker 1: you know, the great symbols of wartime leaders are not 810 00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,120 Speaker 1: just walk out in a suit and tie and say something. 811 00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:15,440 Speaker 1: It's how they conduct themselves, what they say. And his 812 00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:19,200 Speaker 1: ability to have galvanized this much of Western world to 813 00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:24,000 Speaker 1: his aid and support, and to have really, I'd say, 814 00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:27,200 Speaker 1: stared down Vladimir Putin at a time when nobody thought 815 00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:30,600 Speaker 1: he could do it. It's just exemplary. And I don't 816 00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:34,520 Speaker 1: disagree with Ted Cruz that some of that is performance art, 817 00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:39,040 Speaker 1: and thank god he's good at it. It's pretty incredible genie. 818 00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:41,720 Speaker 1: I guess there is something to be said for Rick's 819 00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:46,320 Speaker 1: point here, whether that is a costume, it may actually 820 00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:49,920 Speaker 1: be something that's strategic, it might be good politics, and 821 00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:52,960 Speaker 1: it's certainly his choice. Yeah, it's his choice. I mean, 822 00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,040 Speaker 1: what else would he be wearing an a war zone. 823 00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,000 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but you're not going to walk around in 824 00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,560 Speaker 1: a tuxedo or a suit. You're gonna walk around in fatigues. 825 00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,280 Speaker 1: He's in a war zone. So you know, the focus, 826 00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:07,400 Speaker 1: you know, on what he's wearing is just an attempt 827 00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:10,560 Speaker 1: by Ted Cruz to galvanize the far right of the 828 00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:14,400 Speaker 1: party that he thinks, you know is We've seen this 829 00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:16,560 Speaker 1: over and over again, and it does go back to, 830 00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:21,440 Speaker 1: quite frankly, the impeachment is they are they do not 831 00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:25,640 Speaker 1: like Vladimir Zelenski, and these are people who, like Donald Trump, 832 00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:29,000 Speaker 1: favor the autocrats of the world and Vladimir Putin and 833 00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:32,279 Speaker 1: aren't upset to see them prevail in this conflict. Well, 834 00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:34,600 Speaker 1: we remember the night he spoke to Congress. It was 835 00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:37,799 Speaker 1: the twenty first of December. Actually, I had to look 836 00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,160 Speaker 1: back at the day was right before Christmas. I was 837 00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,399 Speaker 1: lucky to be in the capital for the occasion. Of course, 838 00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:45,080 Speaker 1: we had Rick and Jeanie with us, David Weston for 839 00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:49,719 Speaker 1: special coverage of that event here on Bloomberg. Remember this, 840 00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:54,480 Speaker 1: my masses, I wish you piece. I think that is 841 00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:58,360 Speaker 1: the main thing. And you understand it only around the 842 00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:05,680 Speaker 1: war country when somebody like these terrorists from Russia come 843 00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,839 Speaker 1: to your houses, and I wish you to see your 844 00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:13,919 Speaker 1: children alive and adults, and I wish you to see 845 00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:17,840 Speaker 1: your children and they will go to universities and to 846 00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:23,040 Speaker 1: see their children. I think that is the main thing 847 00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,520 Speaker 1: what I can wish you, and of course to be 848 00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:32,439 Speaker 1: together with us generally, because we really fight for our 849 00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:39,080 Speaker 1: common victory against this tyranny that is real life, and 850 00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:49,080 Speaker 1: we will win, and I really want win together. Remember 851 00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:54,480 Speaker 1: Pearl Harbor, terrible morning of December seven, nineteen forty one, 852 00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:58,400 Speaker 1: when your sky was black from the planes attacking you. 853 00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:05,799 Speaker 1: Just remember it. Remember September the eleventh, a terrible day 854 00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,480 Speaker 1: in twenty two thousand and one, when evil try to 855 00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:17,680 Speaker 1: turn your cities independent territories in battlefields, when innocent people 856 00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:26,000 Speaker 1: were attacked, attacked from air, Yes, just like nobody else 857 00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:32,359 Speaker 1: expected it, you could not stop it. Our country experience 858 00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:43,560 Speaker 1: the same every day. Those are sounds from Kiev today 859 00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:48,480 Speaker 1: in the ringing of the bells Saint Michael's Church. You 860 00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:51,399 Speaker 1: heard Vladimir's Lensky. They're speaking in English and again through 861 00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:55,000 Speaker 1: a translator. Two separate events in the first year of 862 00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,640 Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine. And final thoughts quickly from our panel, 863 00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:04,319 Speaker 1: Rick Davis, are we here talking about this on year two? Look? 864 00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:07,359 Speaker 1: I think that it's just an amazing opportunity for us 865 00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,279 Speaker 1: to look at the heroism, the ingenuity, you know, the 866 00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:14,160 Speaker 1: moral high ground that Ukraine has been able to establish 867 00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:19,800 Speaker 1: in the most difficult circumstances. And all I can say is, Slava, Ukraine, 868 00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:23,400 Speaker 1: Is this a conversation we make a date four in 869 00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:26,080 Speaker 1: a year, Gene, Well, we don't know. But one thing 870 00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:28,440 Speaker 1: is certain is that Ukraine is not going to give up. 871 00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:32,120 Speaker 1: So either Russia is going to retreat or accept some 872 00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:35,799 Speaker 1: kind of agreement, but Ukraine is not going to give 873 00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,480 Speaker 1: up its territory. They are determined to fight, and we've 874 00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:42,200 Speaker 1: seen that throughout the last year, so you know that ending. 875 00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:44,799 Speaker 1: We know for certain is they will prevail in the end, 876 00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:47,560 Speaker 1: no matter how long it takes. Well, we will continue 877 00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,040 Speaker 1: this conversation no matter how long it takes, no matter 878 00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:52,239 Speaker 1: what's happening, of course in the world of politics, and 879 00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:54,680 Speaker 1: certainly with an eye on Ukraine, it's going to be 880 00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:57,480 Speaker 1: a major story throughout twenty twenty three, and a major 881 00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:00,719 Speaker 1: story and an issue in the presidential campaign that we're 882 00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:03,440 Speaker 1: going to be covering altogether. My thanks to Rick Davis 883 00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:06,959 Speaker 1: and Jeanne Schanzano are friends in Bloomberg political contributors helping 884 00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:09,960 Speaker 1: us understand and bring context to some of the most 885 00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:14,160 Speaker 1: difficult issues on a daily basis. I'm Joe, Matthew and 886 00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,560 Speaker 1: Washington taking a few days off. We'll see you back 887 00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:18,560 Speaker 1: next week. This is Bloomberg