Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Monday marks three years since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced to military operation in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Unleashing the worst security crisis in Europe since World War II.
Speaker 2: President Trump campaigned on a promise to end the war
Speaker 2: quote in one day, and recently he's revealed his approach
Speaker 2: to ending the conflict. But it's a path that reverses
Speaker 2: years of US foreign policy in the region. Here's Trump
Speaker 2: speaking on Wednesday, a dictator without elections. Zelensky better move
Speaker 2: fast or he's not going to have a country level
Speaker 2: He's called Ukrainian President Voladimir Zelensky a dictator while engaging
Speaker 2: in direct contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin. His team
Speaker 2: has also held closed door talks with Russian officials in
Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia that excluded Ukraine. One policy U turn after another.
Speaker 1: I think what we've seen over the past week is
Speaker 1: the Trump administration really being willing to go where the
Speaker 1: Biden administration was not when it comes to Russia and Ukraine.
Speaker 2: That's Bloomberg reporter Ian Marlowe. He was justin Ryod where
Speaker 2: he got a first hand look at the US strategy shift,
Speaker 2: and he's been tracking its reverberations throughout.
Speaker 1: Europe, making outreach to Russia that potentially alienates Europe, definitely
Speaker 1: alienates Ukraine with the idea of a sort of Hail
Speaker 1: Mary attempt to end the war.
Speaker 2: Zelensky has expressed an openness to direct talks with Russia,
Speaker 2: but criticized Trump for his approach. He called out Trump
Speaker 2: for a false claim he made on Tuesday that it
Speaker 2: was Ukraine that started the war. You should have never
Speaker 2: started it. You could have made a deal, as Trump
Speaker 2: charges forward. Zelensky warned that Ukraine would not RECOGNI any
Speaker 2: agreements quote about US without US. So where does that
Speaker 2: leave hopes of an end to the war and what's
Speaker 2: on the table for those negotiations from Bloomberg's Washington bureau.
Speaker 2: This is the Big Take DC Podcast. I'm Salaia Moosen
Speaker 2: today on the show inside the latest efforts to end
Speaker 2: the war between Russia and Ukraine and what Washington's policy
Speaker 2: pivot could mean for America's role as a superpower on
Speaker 2: the global stage. Last Wednesday, President Trump got on the
Speaker 2: phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was the first
Speaker 2: publicly announced contact between Putin and a US president since
Speaker 2: Russia launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine in February
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1: We had a great call, and it lasted for a
Speaker 1: long time, over an hour. The frenzy and pace at
Speaker 1: which the US and the Trump administration now is engaging
Speaker 1: on foreign policy and engaging in ways that are very
Speaker 1: disruptive and very new and are one hundred and eighty
Speaker 1: degrees different than what the Biden administration was doing. I
Speaker 1: think that's got a lot of people discombobulated.
Speaker 2: During the Biden administration, the US refused to engage with
Speaker 2: Russia on the war in Ukraine, and as Bloomberg's Ian
Speaker 2: Marlow says, that's in part because Russia hadn't shown signs
Speaker 2: that it was serious about wanting to end it. Putin
Speaker 2: has sunk enormous resources into achieving his goal of claiming
Speaker 2: Ukraine as part of Russia.
Speaker 1: The Biden administration thought it would be pointless that Putin
Speaker 1: was not interested in coming to peace with Ukraine, that
Speaker 1: he wanted to subjugate Ukraine. That's why people think this
Speaker 1: negotiation process that the Trump administration is trying to launch
Speaker 1: is so fraught with risk.
Speaker 2: Trump is gaming out an approach that he'd touted on
Speaker 2: the campaign trail for months last year, getting on the
Speaker 2: phone and striking a deal. But his move flew in
Speaker 2: the face of a US approach that had centered on
Speaker 2: Ukrainian involvement and cooperation with European allies.
Speaker 1: Plus, the US wants to basically wind down military and
Speaker 1: other humanitarian financial aid to Ukraine because they don't think
Speaker 1: the US taxpayer is going to support it for much longer.
Speaker 2: Trump's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said as much. The same
Speaker 2: day that Trump spoke to Putin. Hegseth addressed NATO allies
Speaker 2: and Brussels and told them the burden of supporting Ukraine
Speaker 2: was going to fall on them.
Speaker 3: Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and
Speaker 3: non lethal aid to Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics is estimated that protecting Ukraine and expanding militaries
Speaker 2: across Europe could cost the continent's major powers an additional
Speaker 2: three point one trillion dollars over the next decade. Hegseth
Speaker 2: also made waves by hinting at some of the concessions
Speaker 2: the US might be willing to make and ordered to
Speaker 2: broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Speaker 1: Which was unlikely that Ukraine would hold onto all its territory,
Speaker 1: unlikely that it's going to be a member of NATO.
Speaker 1: Those are kind of Russian goals for this, and a
Speaker 1: lot of people were criticizing Hexath for sort of giving
Speaker 1: up some of that leverage before the talks had even begun.
Speaker 2: Two days after Hegseth's comments, leaders from around the world
Speaker 2: convene at the Munich Security Conference to discuss the most
Speaker 2: pressing diplomatic and security issues.
Speaker 1: Munich was a really eye opening experience for people in
Speaker 1: Europe because of what it said about the Transatlantic Alliance.
Speaker 2: Vice President J. D. Vance took the podium on the
Speaker 2: first day.
Speaker 1: And basically excoriated European leaders and governments for being sort
Speaker 1: of old world liberal elite society that was suppressing right
Speaker 1: wing speech.
Speaker 3: What I worry about is the threat from within, the
Speaker 3: retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values,
Speaker 3: values shared with the United States of America.
Speaker 2: That same day, Van sat down with Zelensky in Munich.
Speaker 2: Zelensky said he was looking forward to more meetings about
Speaker 2: how to end the war.
Speaker 3: Really will want this very much, but we need real
Speaker 3: security guarantees.
Speaker 2: And then on Tuesday, a last minute meeting was held
Speaker 2: in Saudi Arabia, top US and Russian officials, including Secretary
Speaker 2: of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov,
Speaker 2: sat down for over four hours without any European allies
Speaker 2: and without Ukraine.
Speaker 1: The US has been careful to not characterize these as
Speaker 1: a negotiation, in that the US is sitting down at
Speaker 1: the table with the Russians and hammering out Ukraine's future
Speaker 1: without Ukraine. It is a balancing act that the Biden
Speaker 1: administration tried to strike, trying not to lead Ukraine along
Speaker 1: too much, but trying to support them and trying to
Speaker 1: let Ukraine lead the process. And one outcome of that
Speaker 1: was basically that the US took a back seat and said,
Speaker 1: you know nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.
Speaker 2: That made this week's meeting novel because it left Ukraine
Speaker 2: out of the room.
Speaker 1: It's not clear at the moment on the US side
Speaker 1: who made that decision. I think they feel that after
Speaker 1: several years of talking with Ukraine and hearing from their leaders,
Speaker 1: they have a fairly good idea what Ukraine wants out
Speaker 1: of this. They want their land back. They want the
Speaker 1: war to end, but they don't want it to end
Speaker 1: on terms that would prevent Ukraine from becoming part of NATO,
Speaker 1: becoming part of the EU, or giving up any of
Speaker 1: its sovereign rights.
Speaker 2: As for Ukraine's Zelenski.
Speaker 1: He wasn't invited.
Speaker 2: Coincidentally, Zelenski had plans to be in Saudi Arabia that day.
Speaker 1: And he canceled his trip, and he was fairly angry
Speaker 1: in his comments. He looks like he's getting cut out
Speaker 1: of the process right now. The pace at which the
Speaker 1: Trump administration has been willing to toss out the USU
Speaker 1: relationship to some degree and make this in some ways
Speaker 1: unprecedented outreach to Russia over the head of the EU
Speaker 1: and to start engaging in some kind of talks that
Speaker 1: we saw here in Saudi Arabia without Europe, without Ukraine,
Speaker 1: that this is deeply shocking, and I think a lot
Speaker 1: of people in Europe are worried that the US is
Speaker 1: willing to sell out Ukraine to some degree in terms
Speaker 1: of letting them give up territory or other things to
Speaker 1: try and get a deal to try and end the war,
Speaker 1: because that would be a big diplomatic coup to some
Speaker 1: degree for Trump.
Speaker 2: Coming up inside the room, were US and Russian officials
Speaker 2: met this week and where the talks could go from here.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg reporter Ian Marlow was in Saudi Arabia for the
Speaker 2: landmarks sit down between US and Russian officials on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: The talks were held at one of the Saudi palaces,
Speaker 1: the Dria Palace, sort of marble floors, ornate chandeliers. There
Speaker 1: was a big formal meeting room where we were kind
Speaker 1: of ushered in.
Speaker 2: On the US side, Secretary of State Mark or Rubio,
Speaker 2: National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Middle East Envoice Steve Whitkoff,
Speaker 2: and on the Russian side, diplomats like Foreign Minister Sergei
Speaker 2: Lavrov and Foreign Policy aid Yuri Ushikov.
Speaker 1: No one was looking happy in the room. These are
Speaker 1: serious things to discuss, and I think the US side
Speaker 1: knows to some degree that they're taking a chance here,
Speaker 1: and on the Russian side of the table too, decades
Speaker 1: of diplomatic experience, longtime Kremlin aides who have seen these
Speaker 1: things come and go. And on the US side it
Speaker 1: is a new US administration kind of bucking protocol to
Speaker 1: some degree by launching these talks. It is a different
Speaker 1: vibe on both sides of the table. But the US
Speaker 1: side was almost constantly on the back foot to some
Speaker 1: degree because the Russians kept leaking stuff to their delegation
Speaker 1: and their reporters that came with them, and so the
Speaker 1: news was always to some degree coming out of the
Speaker 1: Russian side, and so they were really sort of framing
Speaker 1: the narrative and the Russians feel like they have the
Speaker 1: upper hand on the battlefield. It kind of looked and
Speaker 1: felt like they might have had the upper hand coming
Speaker 1: into these talks, just because they weren't the ones who
Speaker 1: asked for them. Basically, this is kind of Trump wanting
Speaker 1: to end the war. Putin appears to be quite happy
Speaker 1: waging this war and doesn't seem in any rush to stop.
Speaker 2: Russian and US officials spoke for over four hours, setting
Speaker 2: the stage for continue conversations.
Speaker 1: These talks have resulted in more talks, which is kind
Speaker 1: of a classic diplomatic deliverable. You agree to keep talking
Speaker 1: and it looks like you accomplish something other than that.
Speaker 1: There wasn't too much concrete that came out of this
Speaker 1: other than maybe beefing up embassy staffing for the Russians
Speaker 1: in DC and for the US in Moscow and trying
Speaker 1: to re engage and to kind of carry.
Speaker 2: This forward still. Ian says, given the years of diplomatic
Speaker 2: freeze between the two countries, these talks were significant and
Speaker 2: they sent a signal to the rest of the world
Speaker 2: that the US isn't bound by historical alliances. On Monday,
Speaker 2: EU member states met to work on a plan to
Speaker 2: amp up military support for Ukraine. If financed by debt,
Speaker 2: that could add an additional two point seven trillion dollars
Speaker 2: to the borrowing needs of the five largest European NATO
Speaker 2: members over the next decade. That's according to Bloomberg Economics.
Speaker 2: As we heard toward the anniversary of the war, Ian says,
Speaker 2: there are a few key questions. At the top of
Speaker 2: his mind.
Speaker 1: Is the US willing to push Russia when it comes
Speaker 1: to these negotiations. Are there going to be any Russian concessions?
Speaker 1: What is the US willing to do to turn up
Speaker 1: the pressure to bring them to the table. And also
Speaker 1: we're going to be looking to see if there's a
Speaker 1: Trump putin summit, which would then have a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of pageantry and need to entail some kind of deliverables
Speaker 1: on either side, Presumably.
Speaker 2: This week, a US special envoy visited Kiev to continue
Speaker 2: consultations with Ukraine about ending the war. On Wednesday, amid
Speaker 2: a bitter back and forth between the two leaders, Zelensky
Speaker 2: accused Trump of being a victim of Russian disinformation and
Speaker 2: looking ahead. On Sunday, German citizens will go to the
Speaker 2: polls to elect a new government. That election could shape
Speaker 2: the approach one of NATO's largest member countries takes to
Speaker 2: the conflict. This is The Big Take DC from Bloomberg News.
Speaker 2: I'm Salamosen. This episode was produced by Julia Press. It
Speaker 2: was edited by Aaron Edwards, Greg White, and Larry Liebert.
Speaker 2: It was mixed by Alex Sugia and fact checked by
Speaker 2: adrian A. Tapia. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our
Speaker 2: senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is Nicolebeamster Bower,
Speaker 2: and Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. If you
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Speaker 2: next week.