Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea and we say good morning to you.
Speaker 2: Not as hectic as Monday, but it was a really
Speaker 2: interesting today. Dell Out with a huge announcement and it
Speaker 2: wasn't so much in numbers. Who knows what the numbers are,
Speaker 2: that's their view, but it was the timeline dell Out
Speaker 2: framing out to Dina Bass of Bloomberg News, a two
Speaker 2: year view with some real certitude, and then even extrapolating
Speaker 2: out from there to two thousand and thirty. It's single
Speaker 2: handedly lift the market for about an hour and we'll
Speaker 2: see how we get through the day. Really interesting set
Speaker 2: of guests today. Matt Miskan with us from John Hancock.
Speaker 2: They have nailed the buy America by high quality call.
Speaker 2: Matt Miskan an update on this raging artificial intelligence.
Speaker 3: Look the AI trade. I get it right now. If
Speaker 3: you basically come out with a headline saying you're selling
Speaker 3: staples or paper clips to a company that's in AI,
Speaker 3: you get a massive multiple expansions, huge stock ball. That
Speaker 3: to me is concerning. But when you look underneath the
Speaker 3: hood and you look at the best earnings growth across
Speaker 3: all eleven sectors into the third quarter, even technology communications
Speaker 3: services are on top, and so earnings growth is the
Speaker 3: only way to get really appreciation from equities from here
Speaker 3: in our view, and that's where we're following the cash flow.
Speaker 2: Matt Miskin there on the upcoming earning season. It starts
Speaker 2: with JP Morgan next week. Tom McKenzie talking to James
Speaker 2: Diamond today in London. But the earning season and the
Speaker 2: revenue season will be extraordinary. The headline from Dell was
Speaker 2: at high single digit revenue guestimate I'll center tendency eight
Speaker 2: percent or so. That's a big number for someone selling
Speaker 2: hardware as Dell is. It's just a really interesting announcement.
Speaker 2: Of course, we'll see that through all of the earnings season.
Speaker 2: The book to read for people whose heads are spinning
Speaker 2: in this equity market moment, no question, it's Barry ritt
Speaker 2: Holts How Not to Invest? Great book, even more so
Speaker 2: in this October of twenty twenty five, Bury Ritt Holts
Speaker 2: on the moment at hand.
Speaker 1: Markets always seem confusing most of the time. If you
Speaker 1: think you understand exactly what's going on, you're probably fooling yourself.
Speaker 1: And so we have all these crosscurrents. We tend to
Speaker 1: put things into the context of up down, black, white, yes, no,
Speaker 1: when the world is shades of gray. When things are
Speaker 1: more complex, there are so many crosscurrents. People see a
Speaker 1: softening of the labor markets and immediately start thinking recession.
Speaker 1: We still have a fore handle on unemployment. Three point
Speaker 1: seven eight percent a year go ridiculously low. Four and
Speaker 1: a half is still considered full employment. So we have
Speaker 1: a shortage of bodies. We have a shortage of skilled workers.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty five could actually be the first year in
Speaker 1: history where the US sees a decrease in total population,
Speaker 1: reduced immigration, increased deporting, and things like that. So the
Speaker 1: non farm payrolls now we're not even getting the data,
Speaker 1: but the last few data points were pretty punk. But
Speaker 1: that doesn't necessarily mean we're either in an expansion or
Speaker 1: a contraction. There's enough positive things going on in the
Speaker 1: marketplace and the economy that maybe we're decelerating from a
Speaker 1: three to three and a half percent GDP to two percent.
Speaker 1: And I'm talking next quarter Q four, not Q three,
Speaker 1: which looks like it's going to be a hot print.
Speaker 2: And Barry Ridholtz refuses to go out much further than
Speaker 2: those two quarters. There's a lot of humility there. We're
Speaker 2: on your podcast on Apple and Spotify and YouTube podcasts.
Speaker 2: It's single best idea