WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Matt Miskin & Barry Ritholtz

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea and we say good morning to you.

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<v Speaker 2>Not as hectic as Monday, but it was a really

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<v Speaker 2>interesting today. Dell Out with a huge announcement and it

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't so much in numbers. Who knows what the numbers are,

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<v Speaker 2>that's their view, but it was the timeline dell Out

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<v Speaker 2>framing out to Dina Bass of Bloomberg News, a two

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<v Speaker 2>year view with some real certitude, and then even extrapolating

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<v Speaker 2>out from there to two thousand and thirty. It's single

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<v Speaker 2>handedly lift the market for about an hour and we'll

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<v Speaker 2>see how we get through the day. Really interesting set

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<v Speaker 2>of guests today. Matt Miskan with us from John Hancock.

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<v Speaker 2>They have nailed the buy America by high quality call.

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<v Speaker 2>Matt Miskan an update on this raging artificial intelligence.

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<v Speaker 3>Look the AI trade. I get it right now. If

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<v Speaker 3>you basically come out with a headline saying you're selling

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<v Speaker 3>staples or paper clips to a company that's in AI,

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<v Speaker 3>you get a massive multiple expansions, huge stock ball. That

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<v Speaker 3>to me is concerning. But when you look underneath the

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<v Speaker 3>hood and you look at the best earnings growth across

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<v Speaker 3>all eleven sectors into the third quarter, even technology communications

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<v Speaker 3>services are on top, and so earnings growth is the

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<v Speaker 3>only way to get really appreciation from equities from here

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<v Speaker 3>in our view, and that's where we're following the cash flow.

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<v Speaker 2>Matt Miskin there on the upcoming earning season. It starts

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<v Speaker 2>with JP Morgan next week. Tom McKenzie talking to James

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<v Speaker 2>Diamond today in London. But the earning season and the

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<v Speaker 2>revenue season will be extraordinary. The headline from Dell was

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<v Speaker 2>at high single digit revenue guestimate I'll center tendency eight

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<v Speaker 2>percent or so. That's a big number for someone selling

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<v Speaker 2>hardware as Dell is. It's just a really interesting announcement.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, we'll see that through all of the earnings season.

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<v Speaker 2>The book to read for people whose heads are spinning

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<v Speaker 2>in this equity market moment, no question, it's Barry ritt

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<v Speaker 2>Holts How Not to Invest? Great book, even more so

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<v Speaker 2>in this October of twenty twenty five, Bury Ritt Holts

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<v Speaker 2>on the moment at hand.

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<v Speaker 1>Markets always seem confusing most of the time. If you

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<v Speaker 1>think you understand exactly what's going on, you're probably fooling yourself.

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<v Speaker 1>And so we have all these crosscurrents. We tend to

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<v Speaker 1>put things into the context of up down, black, white, yes, no,

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<v Speaker 1>when the world is shades of gray. When things are

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<v Speaker 1>more complex, there are so many crosscurrents. People see a

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<v Speaker 1>softening of the labor markets and immediately start thinking recession.

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<v Speaker 1>We still have a fore handle on unemployment. Three point

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<v Speaker 1>seven eight percent a year go ridiculously low. Four and

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<v Speaker 1>a half is still considered full employment. So we have

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<v Speaker 1>a shortage of bodies. We have a shortage of skilled workers.

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<v Speaker 1>Twenty twenty five could actually be the first year in

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<v Speaker 1>history where the US sees a decrease in total population,

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<v Speaker 1>reduced immigration, increased deporting, and things like that. So the

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<v Speaker 1>non farm payrolls now we're not even getting the data,

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<v Speaker 1>but the last few data points were pretty punk. But

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<v Speaker 1>that doesn't necessarily mean we're either in an expansion or

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<v Speaker 1>a contraction. There's enough positive things going on in the

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<v Speaker 1>marketplace and the economy that maybe we're decelerating from a

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<v Speaker 1>three to three and a half percent GDP to two percent.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm talking next quarter Q four, not Q three,

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<v Speaker 1>which looks like it's going to be a hot print.

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<v Speaker 2>And Barry Ridholtz refuses to go out much further than

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<v Speaker 2>those two quarters. There's a lot of humility there. We're

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<v Speaker 2>on your podcast on Apple and Spotify and YouTube podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>It's single best idea