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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by fan Duel

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Speaker 3: Brendan Glasheen, joined by our MMA analyst Sean Zarillo and

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Speaker 3: Billy Ward.

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Speaker 1: You Guessed It.

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Speaker 3: UFC Betting preview Rondo UFC two to eighty six this

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Speaker 3: weekend from the O two Arena in London, looking at underdogs,

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Speaker 3: props and more. We'll get best bets before we wrap

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Speaker 3: up the program. First, we start with the main event,

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Speaker 3: Camaroe Ousman and taking on Leon Edwards the third. This

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Speaker 3: is a trilogy fight. Looking forward to this one, fellas

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Speaker 3: you look at the Fanduels sports book Edwards at plus

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Speaker 3: one ninety eight on the money line Usman at minus

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Speaker 3: two fifty.

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Speaker 1: I've got Billy Ward. We'll get to Billy in a second.

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Speaker 1: We'll go Zerrilla first. I've got Billy.

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Speaker 3: Ward's luck rankings up right now as a handy dandy

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Speaker 3: study guide. You can find that in the Action Network

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Speaker 3: app Action Network dot Com. Billy basically does exactly what

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Speaker 3: we did during football season with luck rankings. Kerner and Giffen,

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Speaker 3: same kind of deal. He's got luck rankings up for

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Speaker 3: the UFC fights. Each week we have.

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Speaker 1: A fight card, Zerrillo, where are you seeing well?

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Speaker 3: First off thoughts on the fight and then second of

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Speaker 3: how do you want to bet it?

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Speaker 4: Some of two minds about this fight.

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Speaker 5: The first thought is that Usman closed minus three hundred

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Speaker 5: for the first fight. I would say he covered his

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Speaker 5: price over the twenty four minutes that we saw play out.

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Speaker 5: He probably could have wrestled more, but he still was

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Speaker 5: up on the scorecards and was a minus fifteen hundred

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Speaker 5: favorite live in round five before getting knocked out with

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Speaker 5: head kick. Now you see the line reopen at minus

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Speaker 5: three fifty, get beat down to minus two fifty, and you.

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Speaker 4: Must think that that's a steal.

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Speaker 5: He covered his price the first time, getting a better

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Speaker 5: number this time. But then you start to think, you know,

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Speaker 5: watching the fight back, he didn't necessarily look as dominant

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Speaker 5: as he had in previous fights.

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Speaker 4: He lost the first round, Leon Edwards took him down.

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Speaker 5: I thought it seemed like Usman, just skill wise athletically

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Speaker 5: had declined maybe five or ten percent relative to his

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Speaker 5: previous fights. So knowing that he took a step back,

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Speaker 5: maybe in his last fight brutally knocked out, I mean

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Speaker 5: sent to the absolute shadow realm. That's as bad of

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Speaker 5: a knockout as you will see in MMA. Leon didn't

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Speaker 5: even bother following up. He was out cold, brutal knockout,

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Speaker 5: potentially career all three knockout has always had a questionable chin.

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Speaker 5: Knocked down by Herbert Burns or knocked down by Gilbert

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Speaker 5: Burns would be horrible if Herbert Burns knocked him down,

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Speaker 5: but knockdown by Gilbert Burns always seemed like there was

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Speaker 5: a potential that at some point somebody was gonna connect

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Speaker 5: on Usman and hurt him back, and Leon managed to

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Speaker 5: do it. So coming back here after that knockout, not

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Speaker 5: sure if the chin is going to be worse, is

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Speaker 5: he going to be able to take a punch at all?

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Speaker 5: Wasn't as significant layoff either, not like he took eighteen

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Speaker 5: months after the knockout to fully recover. Hela's brain. Has

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Speaker 5: had a hand injury that he's been dealing with in

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Speaker 5: the past, apparently a broken hand, so all of the

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Speaker 5: red flags are on Usman's side. In addition to the

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Speaker 5: fact that the former champion in immediate title rematches is

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Speaker 5: four and eleven, so I want this line to continue

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Speaker 5: to tick down more. If I'm going to bet Usman,

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Speaker 5: I projected him around minus two fifty here, I would

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Speaker 5: wait for minus two twenty before jumping in, or I

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Speaker 5: would wait until the fight starts, let the first round

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Speaker 5: play out. Maybe Edwards wins it again, maybe Usman doesn't

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Speaker 5: go to the takedown right away and they sort of

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Speaker 5: play it outs of a striking battle. I would expect

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Speaker 5: him to wrestle Moore in this fight, he just may

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Speaker 5: not do it immediately, So maybe that price just gets

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Speaker 5: a little bit tighter, a little bit closer to Evans

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Speaker 5: after round one, which Leon may win with the home crowd.

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Speaker 5: But then I would expect Camorrow to eventually wrestle, push

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Speaker 5: him up against the cage and look to take him

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Speaker 5: down and control him. So Usman searching for a better

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Speaker 5: price at a discount. One other thing I want to

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Speaker 5: mention about the first fight two that card. That entire

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Speaker 5: card took place in Salt Lake City, and we consistently

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Speaker 5: saw fighters gassing out throughout that night. Edwards gassed out

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Speaker 5: pretty badly in that fight and still manage to get

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Speaker 5: the knockout. We know there's a cardio differential between these

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Speaker 5: two guys, and that Kamorrow does have the better cardio,

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Speaker 5: but maybe it's not as big of a gap when

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Speaker 5: they're fighting in England versus Salt Lake City at elevation.

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Speaker 5: So curious to see how the cardio dynamic plays out too.

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Speaker 5: But all of that said, I think you are getting

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Speaker 5: a discount on Usman here. I just want to wait

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Speaker 5: to get the best price.

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Speaker 3: Available coming off his first career knockout. Coming off I

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Speaker 3: was trying to recover from his first career knockout, and

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Speaker 3: I was reading up on the chin stuff. This is like,

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Speaker 3: historically your durability does decrease, So that makes sense to

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Speaker 3: why you want to wait for a better price for

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Speaker 3: the Nigerian nightmare. Billy Warre looking at your luck rankings,

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Speaker 3: they won't bury the lead. You think Edwards is slightly overvalued,

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Speaker 3: But do you agree with Zilla that you want to

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Speaker 3: wait on a better price if you wanted to take

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Speaker 3: the money line on Usman.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Sean did a tremendous job breaking that one down.

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Speaker 6: Of all the issues that there are with Usman, this

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Speaker 6: wasn't really one that I necessarily want to classify as luck.

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Speaker 6: I guess it's more variance, right, It's not lucky. You know,

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Speaker 6: Leon Edwards practice that head kick. He's probably thrown it

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Speaker 6: ten thousand times in his life. He knows he's fighting

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Speaker 6: a guy on Usman, a boxer wrestler type who likes

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Speaker 6: to dip his shoulders off to the side, which leaves

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Speaker 6: him susceptible to that.

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Speaker 4: So it's not luck.

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Speaker 6: But that doesn't mean he's going to do it again, right, Like,

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Speaker 6: it's really hard to catch a guy like that. You know,

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Speaker 6: Usman's been training for it. You know, he's been practicing

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Speaker 6: keeping his hands up, dipping more straight down rather than

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Speaker 6: leaning off to the side, all of those things. So again,

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Speaker 6: it's not luck. But you know, Sean did a good

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Speaker 6: job with it in that we saw him as minus

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Speaker 6: three fifty or so, and he looked every bit deserving

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Speaker 6: of that for ninety eight eight percent of that fight

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Speaker 6: until he got knocked out. So I'm with Sean. If

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Speaker 6: you're going to play the money line, I think we

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Speaker 6: can probably get a little bit better line on Oosman

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Speaker 6: as we get closer to it. What I'm looking for, though,

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Speaker 6: is some of the end inside the distance or under

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Speaker 6: four and a half props. Under four and a half

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Speaker 6: is plus one fifty two on FanDuel. I know the

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Speaker 6: stoppage came after that point last time, but that's incredibly rare. Right,

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Speaker 6: stoppage rates go down throughout the fight traditionally as fighters

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Speaker 6: get more tired, So tem pointed out the cardio factor,

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Speaker 6: they should have a little bit more gas in the

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Speaker 6: tank in the later rounds to potentially go for stoppages

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Speaker 6: due to the lack of elevation. The other thing, if

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Speaker 6: I'm usman coming into this fight, I think I'm going

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Speaker 6: to be a little bit more aggressive trying to get

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Speaker 6: Edwards out of there, knowing that he has the ability

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Speaker 6: to knock you out. One of the flaws I think

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Speaker 6: from how he approached it the first time is he

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Speaker 6: was happy to win rounds, but never really was trying

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Speaker 6: to finish Edwards. And that's fine if you know that

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Speaker 6: he can't hurt you, if he can't touch you. But

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Speaker 6: we know that's not the case now. We know that

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Speaker 6: Edwards can put him out, So you know, sometimes I

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Speaker 6: think I get a little bit too heavy into what

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Speaker 6: I would do if I were preparing for this fight

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Speaker 6: is what I think that fighter is going to do.

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Speaker 6: But he's got a really good camp. If I'm the usman, side,

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Speaker 6: especially on the second, third, fourth round, and you keep

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Speaker 6: getting those takedowns, I think he's going to try a

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Speaker 6: little bit harder to put him away, which also leaves

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Speaker 6: him more susceptible to getting caught on his own right.

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Speaker 6: But that's how I would approach it. So at plus

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Speaker 6: one fifty two, that's my favorite bet right now, you know,

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Speaker 6: do not go to a decision. You can get plus

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Speaker 6: one twenty plus one thirty. The odds of it ending

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Speaker 6: in the last half of the fifth round are pretty slim.

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Speaker 6: It's probably juiced a little bit just because we saw

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Speaker 6: it last time, So that under four and a half

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Speaker 6: probably the best way to play it. If you're a

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Speaker 6: little scared by that late stoppage, go ahead and take

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Speaker 6: that does not go to a decision at you know,

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Speaker 6: plus one twenty five plus one thirty as.

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Speaker 3: Well, Zarella, any thoughts on the round angle for this

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Speaker 3: fight or does that tie into waiting possibly.

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Speaker 5: I think it's worth noting that the line, even though

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Speaker 5: the line of the money line has changed, the line

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Speaker 5: on the total is actually the same as it was

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Speaker 5: for the first fight. But Leon Edwards was my bet.

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Speaker 5: It's worth noting what I bet in the first fight.

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Speaker 5: Minawis is in the first fight. I bet Leon Edwards

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Speaker 5: small by decision in the first fight plus eight fifty

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Speaker 5: point one unit his odds to win by the decision

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Speaker 5: this time around or plus four fifty. I don't really

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Speaker 5: get why that discrepancy has changed so much. I know

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Speaker 5: he has the home crowd, I know his money line

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Speaker 5: has moved in, but the percentage relative to his finish

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Speaker 5: and his decision props has moved apparently too, And I

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Speaker 5: don't necessarily get that. I don't think he's necessarily more

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Speaker 5: likely to win minutes in this fight, unless Usman decides

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Speaker 5: not to Rustle. So I would tend to lean towards

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Speaker 5: Usman decision Leon inside the distance if I was going

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Speaker 5: to pick a winning method and their likelier winning method.

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Speaker 5: So I'm a bit surprised that Leon's decision line moved

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Speaker 5: in as much as it did. I was probably going

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Speaker 5: to look to play that again if it was at

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Speaker 5: a similar number.

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Speaker 3: Let's dive into favorite Underdogs to big prelim card, and

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Speaker 3: then four more fights, including the one we just not,

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Speaker 3: including the one we just talked about, four more on

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Speaker 3: the UFC two eighty six main card. Where are we

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Speaker 3: seeing value for underdog Zerillo.

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Speaker 5: I like Desco Storovich plus twenty five against Christopher Duncan,

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Speaker 5: one of two Chris Duncan's that we have on this card.

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Speaker 4: At the UFC has too Chris Duncan's sign to their roster.

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Speaker 5: They decided to confuse all betters and put both of

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Speaker 5: them on the same fight cards. So when you go

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Speaker 5: to search for Chris Duncan on your betting board, you're

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Speaker 5: gonna find two of them.

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Speaker 3: But well, there's a Christian Leroy Duncan and then Chris Duncan.

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Speaker 5: Yes, we have Christian Duncan and Chris Duncan, so you

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Speaker 5: can differentiate by the chin versus the Chris. But in

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Speaker 5: terms of this fight, I just don't think the money

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Speaker 5: line makes any sense. In terms of who is the

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Speaker 5: grappling upside, who's more active, and that is Tadorovich. He's

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Speaker 5: also the UFC veteran, has been in the octagon more frequently,

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Speaker 5: more accustomed to the environment. Duncan I believe is English,

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Speaker 5: so he will be the home fighter.

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Speaker 4: But in terms of.

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Speaker 5: How the fight plays out, Desco has some huge liabilities

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Speaker 5: on the feet.

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Speaker 4: He's not good defensively.

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Speaker 5: He fights out of a karate stance, and he keeps

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Speaker 5: his head low, he keeps his hands low so he

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Speaker 5: doesn't defend his face, he doesn't move his head when

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Speaker 5: he's striking, and he doesn't have the best chint. So

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Speaker 5: none of that is a good combination when you're going

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Speaker 5: against the kickboxer. The thing is Desco has better volume.

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Speaker 5: He tends to stay at good karate range. He fights

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Speaker 5: out of a karate stance, so he's good at getting

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Speaker 5: his kicks off and not getting punched staying out of

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Speaker 5: that distance, or when he wants to, he gets inside

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Speaker 5: of on opponents, clinches them, and then eventually tries to

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Speaker 5: take them to the ground. I think he has all

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Speaker 5: the grappling upside in this fight. I think he also

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Speaker 5: has the volume advantage if they just stay striking for

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Speaker 5: extended periods. Obviously, his opponent has the finishing upside giving

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Speaker 5: Disco's defensive liabilities, but in terms of finishing upside on

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Speaker 5: the mat I give it all to Desco as well.

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Speaker 5: So this should be closer to pick on price. In

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Speaker 5: my opinion, you're getting Gusco all the way up at

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Speaker 5: plus one eighty five. I probably projected him closer. I

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Speaker 5: believe to plus one forty just because of the finishing

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Speaker 5: upside factor and the durability stuff on the feet, but

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Speaker 5: clear value side in the underdog here. Desco to Vorovich

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Speaker 5: like him down to about plus one sixty all right,

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Speaker 5: is a.

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Speaker 3: Plus one seventy two as we record right now, plus

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Speaker 3: one seventy two over on FanDuel as we record on

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Speaker 3: a Friday.

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Speaker 4: Billy favorite dog for the week.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we got the main card openers a middleweight title

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Speaker 6: or not title fight. Middleweight fight between Marvin Battoria and

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Speaker 6: Roman Dalidze. Really interesting fight. You know, Dalidze has been

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Speaker 6: tearing it up. I think he's on a four fight

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Speaker 6: win streak, three finishes, and we know Marvin Batore right,

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Speaker 6: he's been near the top of the middleweight rankings for

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Speaker 6: a long time, pretty much only lost to former champions

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Speaker 6: or former title challengers. So this is a big step

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Speaker 6: up for Dalidze. But I'm going with Leeds at plus

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Speaker 6: two twenty five. The issue with Vittori is he's i

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Speaker 6: would say, primarily a striker, but he doesn't put people away,

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Speaker 6: you know, he kind of pitter pats, wins minutes, wins rounds.

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Speaker 4: Dalidz has crazy power.

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Speaker 6: He knocks out people and he's also like Abu Dhabi,

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Speaker 6: you know, level grappler, some of the most creative grappling

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Speaker 6: I've ever seen. He finished Jacker Manson with like a

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Speaker 6: weird calf slicer set up that he used to then

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Speaker 6: land punches, and I think he's just going to be

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Speaker 6: far too much for Vittori if this one gets to

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Speaker 6: the ground. So on the feet, Vittori is probably the

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Speaker 6: better technical striker and he's going to land more. But

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Speaker 6: we have the chance that Dalidze knocks mount and puts

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Speaker 6: them away, And if it's a grappling match, Delidze should

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Speaker 6: be much much more comfortable on the ground. He would

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Speaker 6: be a huge favorite if they were just grappling. So

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Speaker 6: plus two twenty five we've just got multiple paths to

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Speaker 6: win here. It kind of goes back to my like

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Speaker 6: two out of three between wrestling, jiu jitsu and striking,

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Speaker 6: and I think deleeds a well, he's not the better striker,

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Speaker 6: he has the chance to do more damage, and then

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Speaker 6: once it hits the mat, he's also better there. So

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Speaker 6: I think he's got two of those three realms covered.

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Speaker 6: And a plus two twenty five that's a really good price.

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Speaker 3: Re straight knockout wins has a height advantage as well

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Speaker 3: on victory, so he's got some Uh, he's got some

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Speaker 3: momentum going into this particular fight. Far of the night

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Speaker 3: that you guys want to hit on Justin Geechee and

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Speaker 3: Raphael Phyzev.

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Speaker 4: Where do we.

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Speaker 3: See an edge here on the on the main card

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Speaker 3: Zarrillo Phyzive at minus two thirty five, he's the favorite

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Speaker 3: in Geechee at plus twenty eighty six.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think this is a pretty evident A and

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Speaker 5: B side in terms of how the UFC is looking

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Speaker 5: to move along the lateweight division. Phyzev coming up tons,

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Speaker 5: I mean, hundreds of professional U Tai fights, so beautiful,

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Speaker 5: technical striker, incredibly fast, powerful. I believe he does have

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Speaker 5: the technical and speed edges against Geie Chee in this matchup,

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Speaker 5: and if they're striking for extended periods, which is what

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Speaker 5: I expect is largely a fifteen minute kickboxing match a

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Speaker 5: video and goes that long, I think Fazev is going

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Speaker 5: to outclass him on the feet. We've seen from Gaiechee.

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Speaker 5: While he's still has power, phenomenal leg kicks, great offensive fighter,

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Speaker 5: he has turned into a complete gas glass cannon at

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Speaker 5: this stage of his career. He does not take damage

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Speaker 5: well anymore, particularly to the body. Very weak to the body.

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Speaker 5: As soon as Charles Olavera hit him there, he melted,

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Speaker 5: and Fazivue is going to light him up with bodykicks,

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Speaker 5: kicks to the liver. I think Fazev is going to

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Speaker 5: destroy Justin Gaichee tomorrow. The more I think about this fight,

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Speaker 5: the less I like it for Gei Chee. I've seen

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Speaker 5: some people saying that Gai Chee needs the wrestle if

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Speaker 5: he wants to win this fight. He never offensively wrestles,

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Speaker 5: and frankly, Phaziv's takedown defense looks so good in his

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Speaker 5: last fight against RDA. I think this guy is going

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Speaker 5: to compete for a title. I don't know if he's

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Speaker 5: going to beat Islamakachev, but I think he's certainly good

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Speaker 5: enough and well rounded off that he deserves the title

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Speaker 5: shot and is going to get to it. So this

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Speaker 5: is the type of fight that they put on for him,

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Speaker 5: not only to build him up in terms of just

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Speaker 5: getting an exciting fight in general potential fighter the night

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Speaker 5: and tender, but also because Justin Gaegee is the type

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Speaker 5: of big name opponent who he's capable of finishing. I

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Speaker 5: think he finishes them with body shots here. He may

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Speaker 5: even do it in the first round. So half iel

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Speaker 5: phazive like him on the money line, like him by

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Speaker 5: knockout a plus one forty, like him inside the distance

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Speaker 5: at plus one fifteen. We will get to him again

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Speaker 5: in a minute. But love this fight from a variety

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Speaker 5: of perspectives.

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Speaker 3: For physive, Yeah, the method of victory physikoko that is

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Speaker 3: the top one on the board as far as the

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Speaker 3: most the more based on the odds, the more likely

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Speaker 3: scenario to play out at plus one forty. So Zarrillo

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Speaker 3: seeing value there, Billy, your thoughts on the fight. I

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Speaker 3: think you've got a physive angle as well.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Brandon, you teed it up perfectly for me. I'm

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Speaker 6: looking at physiv by knockout plus one forty. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 6: it's pretty straightforward, right. He's not going to submit justin geegee,

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Speaker 6: He's not going to submit anyone. He doesn't try to

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Speaker 6: do that, So it's it's decision or knock out. And

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Speaker 6: as Sean pointed out, Geichie has gotten a little bit

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Speaker 6: more fragile through time, and he's just a brawler like

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Speaker 6: he's going to come forward and trade with him, which

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Speaker 6: means someone's probably gonna get knocked out. It's a horrible

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Speaker 6: style matchup for Gei Chee. I hear the rest of

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Speaker 6: thing angle. If I thought Gee Chee would wrestle, I'd consider,

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Speaker 6: you know, playing his money line or looking at him

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Speaker 6: as underdog. But we don't really see him do it ever,

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Speaker 6: even if we knew that he wanted to, there's some

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Speaker 6: questions about whether he'd be able to, but he doesn't

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Speaker 6: want to. He just wants to go out there and

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Speaker 6: brawl and have a slug fest and against the guy

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Speaker 6: who's a little bit more technical. Raphael hits that a

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Speaker 6: little bit shorter but longer reach thing that I like

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Speaker 6: to target, especially with striking matchups. He's younger. You know,

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Speaker 6: he's knocked out most of you know, three of us

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Speaker 6: past four. There's really a lot to like on physiev

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Speaker 6: So yeah, I'm with the knockout angle. I think Geechee

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Speaker 6: is a stylistically lends himself to that because he's gonna

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Speaker 6: be willing to stand in trade with a more technical,

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Speaker 6: more dynamic striker.

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Speaker 5: Not only is he five years younger, but I just

356
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Speaker 5: feel like in terms of the damage Geechee is taken

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Speaker 5: to Gaei Chee's probably like at an extra five years

358
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Speaker 5: of fight years onto his actual age too. So in

359
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Speaker 5: terms of worth these two are at in their perspective careers,

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00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 5: physique streaking towards the title shot. Gai Chee zero and

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Speaker 5: two and titled shots and clearly on the way down.

362
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Speaker 5: Also six and four record in the UFC, so he's

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Speaker 5: trending towards being a five hundred fighter. People look at

364
00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,480
Speaker 5: him as still a future champion, which I don't think

365
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Speaker 5: is the case.

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Speaker 3: Sounds like for a physive he'll have the edge and

367
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Speaker 3: what Kevin Garnett once said, a BA fight gonna be

368
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Speaker 3: a BA fight tonight, so I like it.

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Speaker 5: I might think Gaey che in a bar fight honestly

370
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Speaker 5: more likely to break a glass up of the bar

371
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Speaker 5: and come at you with that just crazy factor.

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Speaker 4: Maybe go to Gai Chee, but in terms of tech,

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Speaker 4: I go striking. I'll give him ze.

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Speaker 3: Well, too bad he doesn't have a beer bottle with

375
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Speaker 3: him now in the ring to go to the top.

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Speaker 3: Our top props for UFC two to eighty six again

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Speaker 3: this weekend in London or breaking it down Zarillo, you've got,

378
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 3: uh what do you got for us in the prop market.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Makwanner mir Kani, mister Finland.

380
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,000
Speaker 5: If you go to his tapology fate page, the goat

381
00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 5: tapology picture, it's really easy to bet this guy, actually,

382
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 5: because he does the same thing every time. He's very

383
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:32,919
Speaker 5: dangerous for about three or four minutes and then his

384
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,679
Speaker 5: cardio falls off of a cliff. But in every single

385
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 5: one of his fights, even the ones he loses, he

386
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 5: gets opponents to dangerous positions, puts them in very dangerous

387
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 5: positions in the first round. So you're giving me plus

388
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:45,880
Speaker 5: twelve hundred on him to win in round one, plus

389
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 5: six hundred to win inside the distance. Those are the

390
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 5: kind of bets I'm gonna play on makwannermir Kani every

391
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Speaker 5: time he fights until he retires, because he generally gets

392
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Speaker 5: a takedown, is able to put his arms around his

393
00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,160
Speaker 5: opponent's neck and threaten front tropes for the first three

394
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,199
Speaker 5: minutes of the fight, and then if he doesn't get it,

395
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Speaker 5: he either loses or is able to get a takedown

396
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,959
Speaker 5: in subsequent rounds and hang on with very poor cardio.

397
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,120
Speaker 5: But basically you're gonna get play those amir Kanie early

398
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 5: props the round one prop inside the distant shop and

399
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,080
Speaker 5: then look to target his opponent live after round one.

400
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,359
Speaker 5: The reason why I like this matchup Umiri or Khanyie

401
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 5: in particular is Jack Schorer is moving up in weight class,

402
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,159
Speaker 5: not the strongest fighter, not the most physically strong fighter,

403
00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,600
Speaker 5: even when he was fighting at one thirty five, So

404
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:31,719
Speaker 5: now coming up to one forty five, I do think

405
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 5: Kamir Kanyie is going to put him in dangerous positions

406
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 5: in the first round, will have a strength advantage before

407
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Speaker 5: eventually gassing out.

408
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 1: Billy Fairy prompt.

409
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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm looking at a prelim bout between Yanell Ashmos

410
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 6: and Sam Patterson. Ashms is a pretty heavy underdog here,

411
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 6: even further when you're looking at his knockout props plus

412
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 6: six fifty or so. They've just started to come up

413
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 6: on some of the sportsbooks, so we might even be

414
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:56,879
Speaker 6: able to find a little bit better line than a

415
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 6: few hours. But these guys are both making their UFCDA.

416
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 6: Patterson's coming off the Contender series, Ashmov's is coming off

417
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 6: the PFL Challenger Series, which I think that's leading to

418
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 6: the line being where it is a little bit. But

419
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 6: the PFL Challenger Series is not all that far off

420
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 6: from the Contender series in terms of quality of opponent

421
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 6: or type of fight that you're getting. I think these

422
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 6: guys should be a lot closer on the money line,

423
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,880
Speaker 6: But I really like Ashmov's knockout prop. Patterson is six',

424
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 6: three extremely. Long he's now tied For Jalen turner for

425
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,119
Speaker 6: the tallest lightweight on the. Roster but he has a

426
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 6: really bad habit of following his jabs in his straight,

427
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 6: punches dropping his hands instead of bringing him back to his.

428
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 6: Chin and you, know he gets away with that a

429
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 6: lot of the time because he is so, tall but

430
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 6: he doesn't keep the range nearly as well As i'd

431
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 6: like to see from a taller. Fighter he goes straight

432
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,679
Speaker 6: forward and straight, back doesn't change, angles So ashmov can

433
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,680
Speaker 6: come over the top with a, big looping punch and catch.

434
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 6: Him this is what happened To Patterson's contender series about

435
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 6: he got dropped in the first, round ended up recovering

436
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,680
Speaker 6: and winning the. Fight but that's a big concern against

437
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:58,159
Speaker 6: a lower level of competition getting. Dropped, Additionally ashmoz is

438
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 6: a really good. WRESTLER i watched His islenger series about

439
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 6: got on top really aggressively hunted the ground pound he

440
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 6: fought a taller guy there, too kind of shoved him

441
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,920
Speaker 6: upgainst the, fence used that length against him and look

442
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:11,560
Speaker 6: to beat him. Up so there's a couple of different

443
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 6: ways he can knock him out. HERE i think the

444
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,239
Speaker 6: likeliest win for Ash maz is probably a decision due

445
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 6: to the, wrestling but at plus six, Fifty i'm definitely

446
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 6: going to sprinkle a little bit on that knockout prop as.

447
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 7: Well, hey on too best bets before we WRAP ufc

448
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 7: two eighty six betting preview here on The Action network, Podcast,

449
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 7: zarrillo you're giving us a play.

450
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 3: That you're going to reiterate a play that you liked

451
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 3: from earlier in the.

452
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 4: Pod, yeah fifteen fights on the.

453
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 5: Card normally would want to give out a best bet

454
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 5: on a different fight than one we've already, Covered but

455
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 5: the More i've thought about, it the more we've talked about,

456
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 5: It Raphio phazive to win inside the distance at.

457
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 4: Plus one point fifteen is my favorite.

458
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,399
Speaker 5: BAT i think it's a better way than playing his

459
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 5: money line given how the fight is going to play,

460
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 5: out likely brawl between him And justin Gae Chee physive

461
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 5: going to be the more technical man in the, brawl

462
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 5: going to be the better defensive, fighter more likely to avoid.

463
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 5: Damage but just given the way he, strikes the amount

464
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 5: that he rips the, body particularly with his leg, kicks

465
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 5: and the way That Justin gaegee has react to getting

466
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 5: hit to the body in his recent fights lost as

467
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 5: The CHARLES Olvera Dustin poyer absolutely cooked him to the.

468
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 5: BODY i think this is a bad stylistic matchup for

469
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 5: him on the, feet AND i don't think he's going

470
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,639
Speaker 5: to have the offensive wrestling to be able to switch

471
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 5: things up and Take physie down if he gets hurt

472
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 5: or in.

473
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 4: Trouble so If physique.

474
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 5: Inside the distance plus one fifteen in addition to his

475
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 5: knockout prop plus one forty his money line, Always i'm

476
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 5: likely going to be betting him For Saturday night Against Justin.

477
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 4: Gaegee all, right.

478
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 1: Very, good simple And, billy you are turning to.

479
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 3: Varians, rankings luck, rankings you see an edge For casey.

480
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 6: O'Neill you, know IF i had to pick what was

481
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,359
Speaker 6: actually my favorite bet on the, Cart i'd probably go

482
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 6: back To physiv.

483
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 4: Too but a, fight a fight.

484
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 6: That really reminds me of that Is Casey O'neilvis jenner

485
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 6: from My Jennifer maya IS i think late, thirties thirty

486
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 6: four fighting twenty five year Old casey. O'Neil maya is

487
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 6: five and five in THE, ufc has had a couple title,

488
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 6: shots lost them. Both casey O'Neill is twenty five undefeated

489
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 6: in THE ufc From, scotland so you, know this is

490
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 6: kind of a home game.

491
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 4: For her as.

492
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 6: Well just like we Saw withfyzeve And, geysheet this is

493
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 6: a fight that THE ufc book to Make casey O'Neill look,

494
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 6: good to bring her towards the title, picture to make

495
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 6: her a future, contender against a veteran who has a

496
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 6: name that some people might, know but has probably seen

497
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 6: her best days already behind. Her so she's minus one.

498
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 6: Seventy part of that is Because casey O'Neil TORE acl last,

499
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 6: year WHICH i think is part of what's leading into the.

500
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 6: Line but she's twenty, five it's been almost a. Year

501
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 6: we see younger athletes these days terry acls and comeback

502
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 6: in shorter time frames than, that and it's really not

503
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 6: as big of a, DEAL i don't think. Personally in

504
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 6: mixed martial arts relative to basketball or football or other.

505
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 6: Sports so minus one seventy it's actually moved a little.

506
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 6: BIT i gave it out at minus one seventy last,

507
00:22:58,080 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 6: night so we've already seen some.

508
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 4: MOVEMENT i take her down to about minus two.

509
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 6: Hundred she's clearly THE a side. Here maya's a solid,

510
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 6: fighter but she's in there to Make casey O'Neill look,

511
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 6: good not there to be a competitive.

512
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: Fight maya five and five IN, ufc thirty four years

513
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 3: old is the, age so there's a nine year gap.

514
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 3: There all, right fellas good. STUFF i feel ready to

515
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 3: go a lot of phyzve angles on this podcast TODAY

516
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 3: ufc two eighty six this weekend from the.

517
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 1: Two arena In, London.

518
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 3: Folks you can Find billy And sean in The Action Network. App,

519
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 3: also Like i've been talking, about Referencing billy's luck rankings

520
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 3: edges available on The Action network. Website also in The

521
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 3: Action network, app you can follow each of these guys

522
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 3: individually in The Action Network. App they have more picks

523
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 3: they'll be adding follow them in the. APP i also

524
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 3: want to Add March Madness Player props episode here on

525
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 3: The Action network.

526
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 1: Podcast it nearly swept the.

527
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: Board in the opening, round so that's something you want

528
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 3: to keep an eye.

529
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 1: On we've Got.

530
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 3: Kerner Sean, Kerner Nick giffin joining us next week For

531
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 3: sweet Sixteen Playner props that'll be available Next thursday on

532
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 3: The Action Network, podcast so that's something you can look

533
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 3: forward to as. Well and of course OUR Ufc Weekly Betting.

534
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 3: Previews we'll be back next week For, Shonzarella Billy, Ward Brendan,

535
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 3: glasheen best to block with all your. Picks we will

536
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 3: see you next time on The Action Network.

537
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 1: Podcast Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you

538
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Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling, problem help

539
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