1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Gentlemen, more memories are made when you're there for live 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: NFL action and when you need tickets, our friends at 3 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Ticketmaster have got you covered. As the official marketplace of 4 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your 5 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 1: perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you three hundred 6 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: and sixty degree previews of your section to make sure 7 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: you have the best view of those pivotal plays and 8 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,959 Speaker 1: if your plans change. Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to 9 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 1: sell or transfer your tickets. Plus mobile tickets make getting 10 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,160 Speaker 1: in on game day a breeze. You can even customize 11 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets 12 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:41,560 Speaker 1: today at ticketmaster dot com. Slash NFL The Action Network Podcast. 13 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we 14 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: go from throwing your job, we're sitting it to cash. 15 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they 16 00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 2: go swim. 17 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 3: That's in'readible being bank small banks. I like to make money. 18 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 4: All right. 19 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 5: This is the ultimate combine you. 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 3: Want to be. 21 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast 22 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: presented by Bet MGM. I'm your host, Freendan Glasheen. Today's 23 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 1: episode NFL Best Bets Week three. Joining us this week 24 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 1: and throughout the season. Familiar voices if you have joined 25 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 1: us over the first couple of weeks. Brandon Anderson and 26 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: Luke Swain aka Vegas Refund. We have a rotating third 27 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 1: guest he is familiar with this particular show. Host of 28 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: the Touchdown Show on Sundays during the NFL season. Jill 29 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: Gallant is joining us. We'll also have Dubundo and Nepher 30 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: throughout the course of the year. Don't forget you can 31 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: follow Brandon, Luke Jill individually in the free award winning 32 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: Action Network app for their best bets as well as 33 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: bets they give out over the course of the week 34 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: and during the season. As a reminder, when we do 35 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: this podcast, we do not consult one another before we 36 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:10,639 Speaker 1: make the picks, so to all the housekeeping in the books. Brandon, 37 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 1: I've got the feeling you're not gonna go to these 38 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: these unders to hold your nose unders again this week, 39 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 1: and we're gonna we're gonna go back to sides. What 40 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: do you got for your first best bet for Week three? 41 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, let's try something new this week. Let's actually win 42 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 3: one of the bets I give out so gone with 43 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 3: the unders. Week three is one of my favorite weeks 44 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 3: because it is kitchen Sink week. So I'm gonna start 45 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 3: out with my first bet and I'll tell you what 46 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 3: that means. Give me the Panthers plus six and a 47 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 3: half at Seattle going against Seattle Island this week. Kitchen 48 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 3: sink is the teams that are down oh and two 49 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 3: already basically playing for your life. I've got an article 50 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 3: at Action Nowork right now, you'll see it on the 51 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 3: app of what happens those own two teams? And basically 52 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 3: the answer is, bad things happen if you follow to 53 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 3: Owen three, one of the last ninety nine teams that 54 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 3: are ow and three the playoffs, So you're basically playing 55 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 3: for your life right here. And trends tell us that 56 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 3: we want to back these own two teams, even though 57 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 3: our hearts and our wallets don't want to back them. 58 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 3: They're the terrible teams I keep losing so far. So 59 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 3: here's some of the numbers since twenty ten own two 60 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 3: teams when they're playing someone that's not owing to fifty 61 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 3: twenty nine and one against the spread sixty three percent, 62 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 3: and that includes thirty seven percent ROI if you're taking 63 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 3: a road kitchen sink team in the last five years 64 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 3: on the money line. So all three of my picks 65 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 3: today are kitchen sink teams. And also, obviously teams don't 66 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 3: quite think of this the way we do. But if 67 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 3: you look at teams that are zero and two against 68 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 3: the spread, that's another good spot in Week three. So 69 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: road underdogs that are owing two against the spread, Panthers 70 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 3: spit here. All three of my picks fit here as well. 71 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 3: Forty eight, twenty nine and one ats sixty two percent. 72 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 3: So what about the Panthers? Who do I actually like 73 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 3: here in this side? Besides all the trends, because as 74 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 3: you said, Brendan, not all trends are winners, as we 75 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 3: saw with the Unders last week. So I like the 76 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 3: matchup here too. Panthers defense been pretty good. Their top 77 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 3: five in passing, DV and defense. I think Carolina's defense 78 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 3: probably is the best unit on the field here. They're 79 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 3: getting after the quarterback. Well, Brian Burns did his thing 80 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:23,919 Speaker 3: in the in the preseason, but he's been on the 81 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 3: field and playing really well. And we remember last year, 82 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,599 Speaker 3: we remember Seattle Island. I know this team pretty well, 83 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 3: and I remember betting on Seattle in this game last 84 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 3: year when they lost to the Panthers in December thirty 85 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 3: to seventeen, Gino was sacked three times and through two interceptions. 86 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 3: Why because the man can't play against pressure. That has 87 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 3: always been true, even as he won comeback Player of 88 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 3: the Year. So if you look back last year, even 89 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 3: as Seattle made the playoffs, when they played a defense 90 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 3: that was top half of the league in DVOA two 91 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 3: and six straight up last year for Seattle, a play 92 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 3: off team average last by almost a touchdown. So Seattle, 93 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 3: we forget, still has those tackle issues. They're still missing 94 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 3: those guys. I think Brian Burn's is gonna give some pressure. 95 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 3: I think we're gonna go after it here and give 96 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 3: Carolina a chance. And because I know you're gonna ask Brendon, 97 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 3: what about Andy Dalton? If it's what, if it's not 98 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 3: Bryce Young, how we feel then, guys, I don't know. 99 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 3: I think I feel better right Like Bryce Young has 100 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,599 Speaker 3: not been very good. Andy Dalton is career sixty two 101 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 3: percent against the spread as an underdog of a touchdown 102 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 3: er last So I'm not sure that's a downgrade. It 103 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 3: might even be a slight upgrade. I'll take the Panthers 104 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 3: plus six and a half. In with all these bets, 105 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 3: the money line and the ROI is good too, so 106 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:42,679 Speaker 3: I'm a sprinkle part of the bet on the plus 107 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 3: two to forty five money line as well. 108 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 1: Okay, we're recording on a Thursday, and ESPN's Adam Schefter 109 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: reported that for a second straight day, Bryce Young will 110 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: not practice due to an ankle injury, and it's Andy Dalton, 111 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 1: as Brandon said, tracking to start against the Seahawks. Let's 112 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: go to Luke next first best bet for Week three Luke. 113 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go with the Browns currently laying three 114 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:12,119 Speaker 4: and a half hosting the Tennessee Titans, which this one 115 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 4: was three most of the week. It's gone back to 116 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 4: three and a half currently, which it's even odds in 117 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 4: terms of the juice on the three and a half, So I. 118 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 5: Don't think you need to jump on this one right away. 119 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 4: There is a possibility that it might come back down 120 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 4: to three, which would of course be a lot better 121 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 4: than having the hook. But this one, it really just 122 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 4: comes down to you're just getting great value on the Browns. 123 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 4: They were four and a half, the look ahd and 124 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 4: a combination of the Browns offense not looking great against 125 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 4: the Steelers and Chubb being out has ticked this all 126 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 4: the way down to full point, which is way too 127 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 4: much for me. Where this Titans team on the road 128 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,840 Speaker 4: at the Saints in Week one was plus two and 129 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 4: a half and there is no way that the Browns 130 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 4: are only a point better than the Saints currently, So 131 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 4: that that's like the value perspective looking at though it's 132 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 4: only two weeks to sample size small, but like, the 133 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 4: Browns are much better than the Saints and like more. 134 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 5: Than a point. 135 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 4: And then in this game with Chubb being out, it sucks. 136 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 4: He's the best running back in the league, but I 137 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 4: don't think this he would He's really not a factor 138 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 4: in this game. If he was playing. The Titans are 139 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 4: a pass funnel. No one can run on them. They're 140 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 4: probably their top two or three run defenses in the league. 141 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 4: So Chubb, he is a great back. He probably would 142 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 4: have got his to an extent, but in terms of 143 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 4: the game plan, like, Chubb wasn't going to be the 144 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 4: X factor of this game, at least in my opinion, 145 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 4: And if there is a get right game for DeShawn 146 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 4: it would be this interesting. The Titans the secondary just 147 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 4: gets gashed. It is awful, like it is so bad, 148 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 4: and without Nick Chubb, you would expect they're going to 149 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,239 Speaker 4: be passing more, which if there's a defense for DeShawn, 150 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 4: this is it. And then you have Ryan Tannehill on 151 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 4: the other side, who is great again really bad defenses, 152 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 4: which I wouldn't say he's great, was great last week, 153 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 4: but the charges defense is not great, and he did 154 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 4: he did well, but against good defenses, which the Browns 155 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 4: right now are number one in success right. 156 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 5: Allowed, he's awful. 157 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 4: So I really just don't see a lot of scenarios 158 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 4: that the Titans come in this spot and win or 159 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 4: cover this number. I'd love to have three, so wait 160 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 4: for it. If you can find one, get that. But 161 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 4: at three and a half, it's just an undervalued Browns 162 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 4: team for me. 163 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: Okay, might be as you said, the look ahead was 164 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:39,199 Speaker 1: four and a half, so perhaps an overreaction. And I'm 165 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 1: always fascinated to see how lines move when that team 166 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: plays in prime time, whether it be Thursday night or 167 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: more so Monday night, when it's fresh in our minds 168 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: and it's only a few days later. Jill, Welcome back 169 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: to the show. Jill again, is the host of the 170 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 1: Touchdown Show on Sundays during the season, and to stay 171 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: on brand, he's going with touchdown picks for best bets. 172 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 5: What's up, Jill, What's up? 173 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 2: And of course I will kick it up a little bit. 174 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 2: We're gonna go right to the Falcons game. May not 175 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 2: be as bold of a pick as backing Andy Dalton 176 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 2: on the road in Seattle, but I do think that 177 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 2: this will offer some value for us. We're gonna look 178 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 2: at Tyler als Year anytime touchdown at plus one eighty five, 179 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 2: very powerful runner. I do think he gets overshadowed by 180 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 2: Bijon Robinson, who I don't want to take anything away from. 181 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 2: He is fantastic. I just can't get there at plus 182 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 2: one oh five for an anytime touchdown, especially when Tyler 183 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 2: as Year He may seem like the clear backup, but 184 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 2: he has gotten more carries in two games in Bijon 185 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 2: thirty one carries to twenty nine. He's third in red 186 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: zone carries in the NFL with eight, Jon only as four. 187 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:42,559 Speaker 2: And this Lion's defense, I'm not really impressed through two games. 188 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 2: They gave up two goal line touchdowns to Kenneth Walker 189 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 2: last week and running the ball this is what the 190 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 2: Falcons do. They run the ball on fifty six percent 191 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 2: of their offensive snaps. That's first in the NFL and 192 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:54,839 Speaker 2: their last in the NFL in passing attempts per game. 193 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 2: And why would you throw when you have Desmond Ritter 194 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 2: at quarterback? So to me, this is a bad line. 195 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 2: I would play anytime touchdown odds to plus one fifty 196 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 2: for Tyler Alser to score anytime touchdown. 197 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: Good stuff. Let's go back to Brandon second best bet 198 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: for Week three? What do you got? 199 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 4: All right? 200 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 3: Give me the Broncos plus six and a half in 201 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 3: Miami to face the Dolphins. This one, for me, this 202 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 3: is its trends bonanza. This is just Denver trends every 203 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 3: direction that I can look again, kitchen sink, all the 204 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 3: kitchen sink trends I talked about in Carolina. Every one 205 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 3: of them applies here. But I got some extras. Oh 206 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 3: and two teams against the spread. That's Denver right now, 207 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 3: that lost by seven or less sixty four percent against 208 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 3: the spread in Week three. A couple other Week three trends. 209 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:45,719 Speaker 3: If you get the home opener like Miami, instinctively you think, hey, 210 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 3: all right, Miami's finally got the home game. 211 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 5: We got to like them. 212 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 3: Home opener teams week three thirty six percent against the spread. 213 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,839 Speaker 3: So actually they're underperforming there. Maybe we're overcompensating on it. 214 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 3: And then I'm gonna back Sean Payton and Russell will 215 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 3: Russ actually looked pretty good here the last last game 216 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 3: against Washington for you know, half of the game, but 217 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 3: we'll take it. Got some long balls in there. And 218 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 3: then the trends Russell Wilson after a lost sixty percent 219 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 3: as an underdog sixty eight percent against the spread, Sean 220 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 3: Payton after a lost sixty three percent as an underdog 221 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 3: sixty one percent. And remember those trends aren't the same. 222 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 3: Those are different trends in different locations, so those actually 223 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 3: do fit independently here. And then a matchup. Denver's offense 224 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 3: actually pretty solid so far. I'm not gonna lie better 225 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 3: than I thought that they would be their third in 226 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 3: the NFL and success rate right now, they're they're moving 227 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 3: the ball, they're putting up some points. Pass defense for Denver, 228 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 3: pretty talented pass certain. We got him to possibly help 229 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 3: cover those speedy Miami receivers. Justin Simmons at safety. I 230 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 3: think Denver can hang here. And then our luck rankings. 231 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 3: Miami so far right now is the third luckiest team 232 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 3: in the NFL, where Denver is the second unluckiest team. 233 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 3: So this is a heavy luck ranking pick as well. 234 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 3: This is just a case where I honestly I like 235 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 3: Miami a lot better. I moved them up to third 236 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 3: in my power rankings this week. But I think the 237 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 3: line's a bit overinflated here in Denver in a spot 238 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 3: where Sean Payton came in took the big job. Russell Wilson, 239 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:22,719 Speaker 3: you can't go oh on three. You gotta throw the 240 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 3: kitchen sink at it. So give me Denver plus six 241 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 3: and a half and again I'll sprinkle the money line 242 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 3: plus two thirty five. 243 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: I will, I will add, and I know we're going 244 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: to talk about this game some more, but uh luke 245 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: having ben at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night, my I mean, 246 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 1: outside of a Raheem Mostert house call second half, they 247 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: were they were rattled. So if Denver's front seven can 248 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 1: get to Tua in company, I don't I don't mind 249 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: this as much as it's a hold your nose play 250 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 1: with Denver being zero to two. And I think Brandon's 251 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 1: right it's looked a little bit better than what the 252 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,080 Speaker 1: record indicates. You also like Denver this week. 253 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm on the Broncos as well at plus 254 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,080 Speaker 4: six and a half sprinkle money line of course, but yeah, 255 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 4: a lot a lot Brendan stole out of my thunder. 256 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 5: Which, yeah, it's just in Wattle, Like Wattle is. 257 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 4: A concern to play Sunday, which he's in concussion protocol. 258 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 5: He didn't practice today Tomorrow. 259 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 4: If he doesn't practice, it definitely should be probably the 260 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 4: one's gonna start taking down if he doesn't play, because 261 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 4: without Wattle you have Tyreek and Patrick Shutaine. That allows 262 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 4: him to focus on Tyreek, which outside of Wattle and Tyreek, 263 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 4: like the Dolphins receiving core, really there's no threats outside 264 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 4: of those two, like they're fantastic both. But when you 265 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,199 Speaker 4: have probably the best corner in the league on the 266 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 4: other side of being able to I guess you could 267 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 4: say shadow is Tyreek. As we just saw Christian goan 268 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 4: Zalez do last week. 269 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 5: That is a that is a. 270 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 4: Great recipe, and it's just Denver as a dog is 271 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:00,040 Speaker 4: a whole different story as Denver as a favorite, And 272 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 4: when Denver is a favorite, you can't trust them at margin. 273 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 4: But as we saw last week when they went down, 274 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 4: they were playing from behind. They rallied and Denver's offense 275 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 4: is underrated. Russell Wilson gets all the slack as a 276 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 4: lot of it he deserves, but this Denver team is 277 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 4: just I think getting too much hate from the public 278 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 4: in terms of how they're actually performing. And as a 279 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 4: dog on the road out of Miami team, I agree 280 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 4: at Toilette they definitely slowed down, something was figured out. 281 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 4: I guess you could say if Wattle is out like 282 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 4: that is that's huge. So I would love seven six 283 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 4: and a half. Wattle's out, didn't practice today, you'd expect 284 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 4: this thing to go down. At the same time, if 285 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 4: he does play, you'll probably be able to get seven. 286 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 4: So I'll just take the Broncos at plus six and 287 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 4: a half. With that zero to two straight up ats 288 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 4: sixty percent trend as well. 289 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: Praxicton Burrios is their wide out three, who did have 290 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 1: a couple of targets on Sunday night. But I mean, 291 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: I don't think many people would know that off the 292 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: top of her Off the top of their head, he's 293 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: he's become outside of it. He's like the receiver version 294 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: of Ryan Fitzpatrick now in the AFC East. He just 295 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: he plays everywhere. 296 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 4: Now. 297 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: He played for the Patriots, played for the Jets, and 298 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 1: now he's playing for the Dolphins. Okay, and Waddle was 299 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 1: not a practice Thursday with the concussion, so keep an 300 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: eye on that, and you might want to play it 301 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: now if you think he's going to be out to 302 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: Luke's point, Okay, Jill, what do you got for a 303 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: second best bet for Week three? 304 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 2: Well, before we do that, I just wanted to acknowledge 305 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 2: there's a little bit of disrespect here to River Craycraft, 306 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 2: who is the wide receiver three at the Dolphins who 307 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 2: scored in Week one. So now before we get his 308 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 2: odds part of me, oh my apologies. Yes, he was 309 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 2: twelve to one to score a touchdown, so it's not 310 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 2: like he was likely to score a touchdown as opposed 311 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 2: to the guy we're going to look at here with 312 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 2: the Packers and Saints. We're going right to Taysom Hill 313 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 2: at plus two forty. So he got nine carries last week, 314 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 2: racked up about seventy five yards, looked as strong as ever, 315 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 2: and back up running back Tony Jones he did get 316 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 2: the touchdowns last week, but Taysom's the reason they got there, 317 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 2: a couple big runs to set them up near the 318 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 2: goal line. Now, starting running back an Jamal Williams is 319 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 2: out for a couple of games, but Alvin Kamaros, who 320 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: was mentioning, he's still suspended. So running back depth just 321 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 2: super weak on that team right now. And Dennis Allen 322 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 2: and Crewe they're gonna probably come up with a few 323 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 2: more design runs for Tasom because I'm not sure if 324 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 2: anybody has seen Derek Carr in the red zone or 325 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 2: in scoring position, but. 326 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 3: He is awful. It's just awful to. 327 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 2: Watch him on second and third down or second and 328 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 2: third and long and try to make a play. And 329 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 2: the Packers defense pretty strong, much stronger in the secondary, 330 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 2: though weaker against the run. They gave up two hundred 331 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 2: and ten yards on the ground last week to the Falcons. 332 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 2: I have fair odds around plus one eighty for Taysom Hill, 333 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 2: so if you can get anything over that, I think 334 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 2: you got to fire away. 335 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: In this game, he fired a ball in the back 336 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: of the end zone to olave Derek Carr that probably 337 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: they should have had it for a touchdown, just to 338 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: be fair. But to your point, Tasom Hill ice that 339 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: game too. He got the first down at the end 340 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: of the game to seal the deals. So he made 341 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: some big plays in that game for the Saints. It 342 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 1: turns out they make They still kind of need him, 343 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 1: and I know, I know, our audio producer David is 344 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: just very excited about this pick because he is a 345 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: Taysom Hill loyalist and a BYU alone even better. Okay, 346 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 1: let's go to the last round of picks. Oh Brandon, good, 347 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: good God? 348 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 5: Is this like? 349 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 1: This is your team? This is your team. He's going 350 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 1: back to the team he's been He's been talking about 351 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: this team now for six weeks. Given to us. 352 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 5: I am. 353 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 3: We gotta do it, guys, one more time. I'm gonna 354 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 3: sell you on a one more time. Give me the 355 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 3: Houston Texans baby plus ten in Jacksonville facing the Jaguars, 356 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:43,199 Speaker 3: Luke's old stadium team. We're going there. We're taking the Taxans. 357 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 3: This is actually my favorite kitchen sink spot of the week. 358 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 3: And I got reinforcements here because you've been listening. Chris 359 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 3: Raybond I already took Houston one of those top picks 360 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,239 Speaker 3: on the six pack Anthony Dabundo already got Houston in 361 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,439 Speaker 3: his Every Picks call and that comes out Wednesday. So 362 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 3: we're Team Houston this week at Action Network. No longer 363 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 3: Texans Island. Look, Texans have been terrible through two weeks. 364 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 3: They just have been. The stats have some exciting things 365 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 3: about them. I can spin it, but they're zero to two. 366 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 3: They've lost badly both games. But I think the key 367 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 3: thing here is that's not who the Texans are going forward, 368 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 3: it's who the Texans were those two weeks. This team, 369 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 3: right after I came out in preseason was like, okay, 370 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,199 Speaker 3: all in Texans. The Texans were like all onto the 371 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 3: injury report now and last week they played with one 372 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 3: offensive line starter. They're missing four dudes. They're missing both 373 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 3: safeties and really both backup safeties by the time the 374 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,679 Speaker 3: game finished up. That's a key position for this Damiko 375 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 3: Ryans defense with the blitzing, and then part of the 376 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 3: whole thing with offense was I like the offensive line. 377 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 3: So that's what they've been. Laramie Tunsel, the star tackle, 378 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 3: looks like he's gonna play this week and need him 379 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 3: out there. Jimmy Ward, the safety that they brought in there, 380 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 3: Keif free agent, looks like he's finally gonna debut this week. 381 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 3: He hasn't played yet. Need him out there, I think, guys, 382 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 3: the injury stuff is starting starting to trend in the 383 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 3: right direction. Now let me say it's Thursday. This morning, 384 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:16,719 Speaker 3: I woke up to great news of that star corner 385 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 3: Derek Stingley has an injured hamstring is probably going on 386 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 3: the ir not great, Bob. I don't love it, but 387 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 3: I have to do the Texans thing again. The line's 388 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 3: gonna keep getting healthier. The center and right tackler back soon, 389 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 3: Jalen Pee three, the other safeties back soon. This matchup 390 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 3: in particular focusing on the trenches. Jacksonville's pass rush win rate, 391 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 3: which is a real stat is thirty first in the 392 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,919 Speaker 3: NFL through two weeks. So if I can't have a 393 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 3: healthy offensive line, I may as well have Jacksonville being 394 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 3: the one rushing the passer. Because CJ. Stroud has actually 395 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 3: been pretty good. He had almost four undred yards last week. 396 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 3: He's just not good under pressure. But if Jacksonville can't 397 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 3: pressure him, even with the line troubles, I like that. 398 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 3: On the flip side, Jacksonville's offense has not been very 399 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 3: good guys. They're bottom of five and a lot of metrics. 400 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 3: Despite all the hype press Taylor calling the plays now, 401 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 3: I don't think that's going very well. And I think 402 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,959 Speaker 3: they have some offensive line issues as well. And the 403 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 3: Texans are seventh in passer rush win rate. So we 404 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 3: can maybe kind of win the trenches battle here and 405 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 3: get Trevor under some pressure protect CJ a little bit. 406 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 3: Houston in this rivalry in the division, has won nine 407 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 3: of the last ten games. The Houston Texans against literally 408 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 3: anyone have won nine of ten. That has to get 409 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 3: our attention. I'm doing it again, Texans plus ten. Couple 410 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 3: trends for you, beyond all the kitchen sink ones, kitchen 411 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 3: sink games that are owned to justin division games fifteen 412 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 3: to six and one seventy one percent since twenty ten 413 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 3: against the spread Division underdogs of six and a half 414 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 3: or more sixty one percent the first five weeks. And 415 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,159 Speaker 3: then I got from Matt Moore in Week three. If 416 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 3: you are one and one favored at home but coming 417 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 3: off a loss like Jacksonville, so basically you lost last 418 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 3: week and we're saying, oh, it's a bounce back spot. 419 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 3: If you're facing one of those teams, you're forty two, 420 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 3: twenty one and two ats sixty seven percent. So everything 421 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 3: says we're giving Jacksonville too much credit here. I don't 422 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 3: know if I can honest to say we're not giving 423 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 3: Houston enough credit. Houston has not earned any credit. This 424 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 3: is my last Houston credit. I'm going there, and I'm 425 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 3: going one step further. I got marcle up on the 426 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 3: oh and two teams. Who's gonna make the playoffs. It's 427 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 3: the Houston Texans twenty five to one to win the 428 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,640 Speaker 3: AFC South. That's the whim in the money line, because 429 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 3: if they win this, they're gonna be Tyler Jacksonville the 430 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,399 Speaker 3: top of the division right back in it. Give me 431 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,399 Speaker 3: the Texans plus ten. Let's go. 432 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 1: Holy crap. Okay, I will say, I will say, I 433 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: love it. I love how you're committed to this. If 434 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: they did this week, though, we might have to check 435 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: you next week. Trevor Lawrence, by the way, one in 436 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 1: three straight up and against the spread in his career 437 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: against the Houston Texans. 438 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:04,400 Speaker 5: Oh yeah. 439 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 3: By the way, Trevor Lawrence has a favorite of four 440 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,199 Speaker 3: more points all in four ATS. Three of those are 441 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,400 Speaker 3: against the Texans, and he lost outright all of them. 442 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 3: That's another staff for you. So Texans, let's go now. 443 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 4: And I will say that when I was looking at 444 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 4: the games, like my first glance, like my my gut 445 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 4: reaction picks earlier this week, like when the Texans go 446 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 4: to the Jags, it's kind of just like an auto 447 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 4: for me, where it's a divisional game and whatever it is, 448 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 4: Like the Texans, I think they won in Jacksonville last year, 449 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 4: like when they're really really bad, but like they just always. 450 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 5: And it's like betting it. I hate. 451 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 4: There's like nothing behind this other than like knowing that 452 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 4: the Texans play the Jags tough every single time in Jacksonville. 453 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 1: Okay, what a hell of a final pick by Brandon Uh. Okay, 454 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 1: let's go back to Luke. Your your third best bet 455 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: for Week three? 456 00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 5: What do you got? 457 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,199 Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm gonna go with the Bucks, who I 458 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 4: think right now are plus five by the night football 459 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 4: hosting the Eagles, which is just this one is just 460 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 4: I'm just gonna keep riding the Bucks. They're a team 461 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 4: that I thought was underrated going to this season. They've 462 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 4: won too in a row. Like the Bears are just 463 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 4: absolutely awful, Like they're just it's just it's a tragedy 464 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 4: what they are right now, and it's it's tough to 465 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 4: say you go base anything off of them beating the 466 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 4: Bears last week, but they still won. And this is 467 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,680 Speaker 4: an Eagles team that their secondary is just bodies at 468 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 4: this point, like we saw what Kirk Cousins did to 469 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,199 Speaker 4: them last week. It's just in with this secondary in 470 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 4: this defense, it's just not a team I can trust 471 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 4: to win at margin. As you saw the Vikings cover 472 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 4: or I think yeah they covered last week at the 473 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 4: almost like a back door. If this Bucks offensive line 474 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,919 Speaker 4: can keep the pressure off of Baker, like I do, 475 00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:01,240 Speaker 4: think the Bucks can win y like, I think there's 476 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 4: a good possibility they will, But this Eagles defense I 477 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 4: just don't trust. And even the over I would see 478 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 4: but at plus five I think it was plus six 479 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 4: earlier this week, I still like it. 480 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 5: I think they can win. 481 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 4: This Eagles defense in the second area is something that 482 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 4: he's going to make Baker look a lot better than 483 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,400 Speaker 4: I think he actually is. As long as this defensive 484 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,239 Speaker 4: line with Tristan works, which they've been doing a good 485 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,959 Speaker 4: job of keeping the pressure off, can do against an 486 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 4: Eagles defensive line that is scary, but at the same time, 487 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 4: it's okay, it's possible. 488 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 5: Okay, Bucks plus five four and a half. 489 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: Very very frustrating beginning to the season. I think if 490 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 1: you're an Eagles fan or an Eagles better because maybe 491 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 1: this is just how Sirianni wants to manage it. Because 492 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 1: I couldn't figure out what the hell was going on 493 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,879 Speaker 1: with Bryce Young Bryce Young Jalen Hurts in terms of 494 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: how they were using him, because for a while, I'm like, 495 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: is he hurt? And what do you know? He throws 496 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 1: a dime to DeVante Smith down the middle of the 497 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: field for a touchdown. I bring it up to say 498 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: this an extended rest. Jalen Hurts is six and five 499 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: of straight up five to five and one against the spread, 500 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 1: So I mean the rest doesn't necessarily guarantee anything either, 501 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:11,719 Speaker 1: I think, is what I'm getting there. 502 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, And I do also want to say, like everyone 503 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:18,159 Speaker 4: watched the Eagles just gash the Vikings defense, like just 504 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 4: running for a billion yards last week, and when the 505 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 4: Eagles did pass, Hurts looked awful and that was against 506 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 4: a really it was against a really bad Viking secondary. 507 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 4: Hurts just there was nothing going on in the passing game, 508 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 4: and the Bucks defense is stout against the run. I 509 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 4: still I think their defense is underrated, probably top five 510 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 4: or six unit in the league right now. And the 511 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,480 Speaker 4: Vikings defense is on a whole different wave length than 512 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,639 Speaker 4: what the Bucks is in terms of being worse. 513 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 1: So well, and Jalen Hurts as a passer wasn't really 514 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 1: all that necessary in Week one against the Patriots because 515 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,399 Speaker 1: they had the short fields they had to pick six, 516 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 1: so we haven't really seen him yet. He had a 517 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,199 Speaker 1: couple of good throws in that Vikings game. But I 518 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: think it's fair to call out because it's weird and 519 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: maybe they're just managing it and they're two and ohs, 520 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: they're fine, But I think you're onto something there. All right, Jill, 521 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 1: take us home. But he got your final pick, and 522 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 1: then we'll get to Brandon's look ahead four Week four. 523 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,239 Speaker 2: All right, So we're going to take it down a 524 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 2: notch on the difficulty level here, take it down to 525 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,639 Speaker 2: like rookie mode on Madden. We're going to take Jamar 526 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 2: Chase to score a touchdown at plus one to forty. 527 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 2: You want to talk about bounce back teams, this is 528 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,879 Speaker 2: bounce back player situation here. Four red zone targets in 529 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 2: the last game versus the Ravens. Even if Joe Burrow 530 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 2: or Browning is going to play, it's probably gonna be 531 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 2: Burrow at this stage, just based on the line movement. 532 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,439 Speaker 2: But if Burrow's playing, he's still going to look for 533 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 2: him early and often. Seventeen targets through two games still 534 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 2: plays around ninety eight percent of the snaps. You're not 535 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,480 Speaker 2: going to get a wide receiver one very often at 536 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 2: plus one forty or better. I would play this down 537 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 2: to about plus one twenty. He had one touchdown and 538 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 2: it was called back, and then t Higgins he caught 539 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 2: one on the next play. So now they're playing against 540 00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 2: this Rams defense, which has actually been pretty feisty two weeks. 541 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 2: But honestly, this could be just a game where Burrow 542 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 2: finally gets his mojo back because the Rams. The one 543 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 2: thing that even though they are playing well defensively, they're 544 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 2: not getting as much defensive pressure as they would in 545 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 2: years past. Even though they do still have Aaron Donald, 546 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 2: they only have three sacks through two games. Even versus 547 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:18,640 Speaker 2: Seattle when they blew him out, they couldn't really get 548 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,439 Speaker 2: the geno. It was more just forcing bad passes. And 549 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 2: fun fact, in his career, Jamar Chase has not gone 550 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 2: three games in a row without scoring a touchdown. 551 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 1: We're on game. 552 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 6: Three, Okay, very good, And I think even if even 553 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 6: if Burrow's out, like I feel like when backups come in, 554 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 6: like they popper the man guys even more than this 555 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 6: dagger would because like the Reds are like one or 556 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,720 Speaker 6: two and that's it, or like Burrow is probably onto 557 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 6: three or four and read one is usually Chase or Higgins. 558 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 5: He's always going to be read too, most likely. 559 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,880 Speaker 1: So okay, that is a Super Bowl rematch on Monday night. 560 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,440 Speaker 1: And again I think I think Jill's wright. The fact 561 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: that the Bengals are now minus three, that got down 562 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,159 Speaker 1: as short as one and a half, that's indication that 563 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 1: we might see Joe Burrow and not whatever Jake Browning 564 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 1: is on Monday night. 565 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 4: Genlem were too like if they weren't going to like 566 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 4: Burrow would definitely not be playing. 567 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 5: But like what was what was the stat? 568 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 4: Like zero teams down oh three, whether it's basketball or NFL. 569 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 5: Apparently he definitely wouldn't be playing. They weren't into I. 570 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 1: Think you're right, that's a safe assumption. 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Ticketmaster 585 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,080 Speaker 1: gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets, 586 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 1: plus mobile tickets make getting in on game debrees, and 587 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: you can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your 588 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 1: team's colors. Brandon might be investing in blue and red 589 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 1: for the Texans at this rate. Find tickets today at 590 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 1: ticketmaster dot com slash NFL. I go to Branded again 591 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 1: for his look aheadline for week number four. 592 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 5: What do you got now? 593 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 3: This one is all about the key number. Give me 594 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 3: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus three and a half at 595 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,040 Speaker 3: the I think we're gonna see this one flip to 596 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 3: the other side of the key number. So not a 597 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 3: huge line move necessarily, but we want that key. Luke 598 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:09,520 Speaker 3: made a great case for Tampa Bay. I think we're 599 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 3: gonna see them put up a stin. We're seeing a 600 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 3: lot of money come in on Tampa this week Monday Night. 601 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 3: I don't love the Saints against the Packers, so I 602 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 3: do think this one maybe moves that direction. If Tampa 603 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 3: wins or even hangs tight against the Eagles three and zero, 604 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 3: they're not gonna be a three and a half point 605 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 3: under dog against the Saints here. So Tampa Bay against 606 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,480 Speaker 3: New Orleans has won three to the last five. Todd 607 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 3: Bowles has done pretty well coaching against the Saints offense. 608 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,880 Speaker 3: They're down only eighteen points a game in that stretch, 609 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 3: and the road team has won seven of the last 610 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 3: eleven In this division rivalry, so home has not really 611 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 3: meant a lot in this matchup. Now they do the 612 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 3: Saints Duke get Alvin Kamara back here, so I don't 613 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 3: love that, But I just don't respect Dennis Allen or 614 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 3: Derek Carr's favorites. I'm just gonna keep betting against them 615 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 3: until they approve otherwise. Here's the numbers after depending on 616 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 3: the number you got. The Panthers weird come back Monday 617 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 3: night to cover or at least push the number. Dennis 618 00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 3: Allen as a favorite now four and ten against the spread, 619 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 3: two and seven when it's a four point spread or 620 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 3: below like it is here. And in the division one 621 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 3: in six as a division favorite for Dennis Allen against 622 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 3: the spread. Derek Carr thirty six percent against the spread. 623 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 3: The Saints are good. They're kind of good right like, 624 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:24,479 Speaker 3: they're fine, and they're gonna have an easy schedule. Then 625 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 3: keep being favored, but they're gonna keep getting my money 626 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,440 Speaker 3: on the other side, because I just I don't see 627 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 3: it now. One last thing, total here is forty point 628 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 3: five right now, and I think probably is gonna drop. 629 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 3: We have two defensive coaches, right I don't want Todd 630 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 3: Bowles or Dennis Allen coaching my team, but I all 631 00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,760 Speaker 3: my I can have them coach my defense. If the 632 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 3: total is that low, then three and a half points 633 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 3: is a lot, and we got a stat for that here. 634 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 3: Underdogs of four or less when the totals forty two 635 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,760 Speaker 3: or below last five years eighty one forty seven and 636 00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 3: two against the spread sixty three percent. So when we 637 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 3: have a really low total like this, you want the 638 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 3: underdog because those points are just that much more valuable. 639 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,720 Speaker 3: And I want the key number. So give me the 640 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:06,960 Speaker 3: box plus three and a half. 641 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:13,120 Speaker 1: Okay, excellent. Brandon's look ahead from last week he gave 642 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,959 Speaker 1: out Buffalo, which we'll find out, but from before that, 643 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 1: for our first week, he gave out Atlanta and they 644 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 1: delivered over the weekend against the Green Bay Packers. So 645 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 1: there you go. You get some edges if there, if 646 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 1: you look ahead, that is going to do it. For 647 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:30,720 Speaker 1: our Action Network podcast, NFL Week three Best Bets episode, 648 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 1: we are presented by BETTMGM. You can also catch the 649 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 1: full betting preview of the NFL card with Raybond and Stuckey. 650 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 1: They've got their Sunday six pack. Also available on the 651 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast, we have our weekly recap episode with 652 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,959 Speaker 1: Jill and Evan Abrams. They will join you late Sunday night. 653 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 1: That comes out first thing Monday morning. Be on the 654 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 1: lookout for that and we'll join you all next week. 655 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 1: Thanks to Joe Galant, Brandon Anderson, Luke Swayin. I'm Brandan Glashen. 656 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Action Network podcast. Good luck 657 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 1: this weekend. We'll talk to you next Thursday. Sea Action 658 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone 659 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:28,000 Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 660 00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler