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Speaker 1: The Volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by Fan

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Speaker 1: Duel Football Seasons. Here no better place to get in

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Speaker 1: Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fan

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Speaker 1: Duel App today. Hi, everybody, welcome in good stuff today.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie. Been on a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a heater lately. Three straight blazing, five winning weeks, feeling

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Speaker 1: pretty good about myself. Let me start by saying this

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Speaker 1: a couple of times a year. I know that you

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Speaker 1: know I'm on all these platforms and I don't reach

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Speaker 1: out a lot, but I also think it's important to

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Speaker 1: thank you from time to time. So a couple times

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Speaker 1: a year, I want to come out and just say, hey,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much for our support. So I got

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Speaker 1: some information yesterday on a lot of different things at

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Speaker 1: the Volume and Premiere Radio. iHeartRadio my radio show. We

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Speaker 1: had over thirty million download podcast downloads just on my

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Speaker 1: radio show for October, shattered every record we had well

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Speaker 1: over thirty million, and I just want to say thank

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Speaker 1: you for the support. There's a million choices out there.

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Speaker 1: I added Jason McIntyre to the show, and I think

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Speaker 1: he's funny and I can pitch him shit. He pitches

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Speaker 1: it back. You know, anytime you bring on somebody new

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Speaker 1: to the show, it's a new show. And so I

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Speaker 1: think he's done a really nice job to ingratiate himself

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Speaker 1: to the staff to come in. He loves his gambling.

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Speaker 1: He really is a well connected guy. So he's been

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Speaker 1: horrific and it makes me really happy because I've known

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Speaker 1: Jason for over a decade. He's a total grinder. He's

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Speaker 1: my kind of guy, and he's just having great success.

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Speaker 1: The audience is responding and it makes me really really happy.

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Speaker 1: He's a great guy, works hard, family man, and so again,

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Speaker 1: thank you for your support. Three things I want to

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Speaker 1: talk about. Number One, Sean McVeigh has intimated like two

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Speaker 1: or three times in the last six months that he's

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Speaker 1: going to retire early. You know, he's thirty six years old,

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Speaker 1: going to retire early, and I laugh at this. Pete

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Speaker 1: Carroll is seventy years old. Have you ever seen him

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Speaker 1: on the sideline? Does he look miserable. You know who's miserable.

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Speaker 1: Old guys walking around with their wives at a mall

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Speaker 1: at seventy four years old. They don't want to be

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Speaker 1: doing matt They got nothing to do. Go to any

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Speaker 1: mall in America at ten in the morning. See guys

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Speaker 1: with those tennis shoes on seven five year old man,

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Speaker 1: you know the kind of velcrow. And they're sitting over

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Speaker 1: there wearing their doctors walking around and they're fucking miserable,

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Speaker 1: absolutely miserable. They can't wait to be able to have

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Speaker 1: their first gin and tonic at a twelve fifteen in

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Speaker 1: the afternoon. They want to be sauced by the time

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Speaker 1: Matlock comes on. Sean McVay will never find anything that

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Speaker 1: makes him happier. And I'm not talking like wife kid,

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Speaker 1: obviously that's the happiest I ever em or you are.

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Speaker 1: But this idea, this race to retire, come on, man, folks,

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Speaker 1: many of you hate me. Here's the bad news. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna die on the air. I'm going to be eighty

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Speaker 1: eight years old giving sports takes. My teeth are going

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Speaker 1: to fall out of my mouth on the air. Jan

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Speaker 1: Usual would jeez klunk, My teeth will fall out my dentures.

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Speaker 1: I talk sports. These guys coach football. Talking sports keeps

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Speaker 1: me young. Coaching football, Coaching twenty seven year olds keeps

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Speaker 1: you young. This race to retire, I get it. If

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Speaker 1: you work at a lug nut factory, don't get me wrong,

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Speaker 1: I get it. If you lift stuff, totally get it.

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Speaker 1: If you work in a factory, totally get it. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's some manufacturing jobs that are really tough on people,

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Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong. That's a different life. But when

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Speaker 1: I hear coaches and broadcasters and politicians, I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: a reason the people running for president are in their

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Speaker 1: late seventies because you don't lift anything. How about new rule.

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Speaker 1: If you don't lift stuff, work as long as you can.

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Speaker 1: But Andy Reid, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll, I'm sorry. They

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Speaker 1: don't look miserable to me. They look engaged. They look

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Speaker 1: like they're in the game. I know somebody hate me,

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Speaker 1: Gonna have to live with it. I'm in my fifties now,

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Speaker 1: I got thirty years of sports takes, and you know what,

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Speaker 1: They're just gonna get better and better. Let's talk Russell Westbrook.

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Speaker 1: Gotta be honest. He drives me crazy. But I was

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Speaker 1: almost shocked. I'm not shocked by anything. Well O J.

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Speaker 1: Simpson down the LA Freeway, White Bronco. That caught me

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Speaker 1: off guard. And learning that andre Agassi didn't meth He

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Speaker 1: wrote about that in the book Gotta Be Honest. Never

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Speaker 1: saw that one coming, did not think Andrea Agassi did

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Speaker 1: meth I was like, whoa left field? By and large,

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Speaker 1: nothing really surprises me in sports. Nothing really surprises me.

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Speaker 1: But Russell Westbrook has always been sort of a rigid player, right,

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Speaker 1: rigid personality. We've seen him slap his hands at kids

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Speaker 1: or move this, move that fan. And the fact that

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Speaker 1: in like a week or two weeks time got one

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Speaker 1: hundred million net worth Hall of Famer. Eventually that Russell

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Speaker 1: Westbrook would say, yeah, I'm gonna come off the bench

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Speaker 1: and crush it. You know what, good for Russell Westbrook.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes it's very difficult to tell successful, wealthy people to

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Speaker 1: make a big change or that they're the problem. We

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Speaker 1: can all crap on Russell Westbrook, but for him to

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Speaker 1: make that change, Darvin Ham deserves Coach of the Year

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Speaker 1: votes here in November. Is Westbrook drives me crazy. But

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Speaker 1: I think one of the hardest things to do to

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Speaker 1: take successful, rich people and tell them you're the problem.

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Speaker 1: Because they have all the money they need, they've been

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Speaker 1: told how great they are. They don't have to do it.

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Speaker 1: He could just say no, I'm not going to come

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Speaker 1: off the bench. I'm gonna blow up the team. I

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Speaker 1: think it's the most impressed I've ever been with Russell

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Speaker 1: Westbrook his ability to evolve self awareness. How long did

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Speaker 1: it take Carmelo Anthony to come to terms with dude,

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Speaker 1: you're a bench player. He couldn't do it for years,

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Speaker 1: he laughed at people who suggested it. Westbrook did it

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Speaker 1: in like two weeks. Tip of the cap, What do

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Speaker 1: you go? Dude? Totally respect that. So it's a weird

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Speaker 1: thing happening in society. Elon Musk is going to change Twitter,

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Speaker 1: and you know who knows what's going to happen. I

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Speaker 1: am a believer that anytime you create a barrier to entry,

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Speaker 1: you clean up a place. I used to do radio

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Speaker 1: remotes when I was just a radio guy, and you'd

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Speaker 1: let anybody come. It was free, and I mean it

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Speaker 1: looked like that the canteen is seen from Star Wars.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you gave people a free key chain,

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Speaker 1: it was brutal, and it's just like, let's do remotest,

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Speaker 1: Let's have some barrier to entry here. Come on, So

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Speaker 1: if Twitter charges eight bucks a month to get verified

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Speaker 1: or to be verified people, you're going to clean some

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Speaker 1: bots up and clean the bigotry and the bots and

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Speaker 1: these people that just attack women. It's just gross. I

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Speaker 1: think a smaller Twitter is a better Twitter. But we

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Speaker 1: do live in a funny world now that adults have

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Speaker 1: become children and children are forced to become adults. Remember

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Speaker 1: all you adults out there. I'll never watch the NFL

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Speaker 1: because of Kaepernick. A year later the ratings were up,

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Speaker 1: You're watching it even though their heart's in the right place.

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Speaker 1: I'll never watch the Browns with Deshaun Watson. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think he's gross too, But I bet if you check

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Speaker 1: in in two or three years, Browns fans will have

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Speaker 1: watched the Cleveland Browns. Your heart's in the right place

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Speaker 1: with that one, but you'll watch it. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: join Twitter for eight dollars. I'm out. I guarantee you

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Speaker 1: not a single blue check mark of note is out.

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Speaker 1: You know how along I've been here in this, I'm

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Speaker 1: quitting this. I won't do that. I won't do that.

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Speaker 1: I'm never coming back. By bye. See you. Everybody was

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Speaker 1: going to move to Canada or Europe because this conservative

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Speaker 1: is elected or this republic Pliicans elected. Bye bye. You

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Speaker 1: don't have to announce it. It's not an a report.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to announce when you're leaving. You know,

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Speaker 1: you don't have to. There's no flight you have to

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Speaker 1: give us a heads up on. Just go. And yet

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Speaker 1: kids now are forced to sometimes be the adults in

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Speaker 1: the family. Hey, dad, I don't think you should go

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Speaker 1: to the Capitol on January sixth. Hey mom and dad,

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Speaker 1: I think you're losing your identity in your mind, going

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Speaker 1: maga like I'm an independent, all right, So I'm a

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Speaker 1: socially left leaning, you know, independent. I don't really care,

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Speaker 1: but I mean I care, but I'll go either way

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Speaker 1: on this stuff. But we are forcing kids all over

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Speaker 1: America to have to engage with their parents and tell

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Speaker 1: them to grow up and act like adults, and adults

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Speaker 1: are becoming children. You give them that little phone and there,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do this, and I'm not gonna watch this,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not gonna go here. You are, folks, if

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Speaker 1: these threats mattered, I'd have no If these threats mattered,

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Speaker 1: I would have absolutely no audience. I had a petition

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Speaker 1: once at ESPN, over sixteen thousand signatures to get rid

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Speaker 1: of me. My boss has loved it. They said, that's

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Speaker 1: the price of relevance. You're becoming something. People are making

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Speaker 1: threats constantly in our society. Don't buy it. I won't

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Speaker 1: do this. I won't do this. I'll never come back

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Speaker 1: the fact. I always look at it this way. If

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Speaker 1: you are so viscerally connected to like my show that

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Speaker 1: you reach out to yell or scream at me, you're

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Speaker 1: a fan. Now. Some of my fans hate me, some

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Speaker 1: like me, but you're a fan, and that's all I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to do, connect with people emotionally. I hope I'm

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Speaker 1: mostly right. Sometimes I'm wrong. I'm good with it. I'm

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Speaker 1: a public figure. Take your shots, take your swings. But

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Speaker 1: just maybe next time you make a big threat. I

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Speaker 1: won't watch the NFL because the kapper naked. I won't

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Speaker 1: pay eight dollars go hug your kids. They're now the

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Speaker 1: adults in the family. Listen. These days, every new potential

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Speaker 1: eight nine Tennessee Visit one eight hundred Gambler dot in

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Speaker 1: West Virginia. All right, Chad Millman, CCO Action Network. All

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Speaker 1: odds provided by FanDuel. I had another winning week. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for the Cleveland Browns. Didn't think it would be that ugly,

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Speaker 1: but it was. I have been on this belief that

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Speaker 1: the NFL scorings come down. I'm taking more dogs than ever,

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Speaker 1: and I've always preferred dog, but I'm taking like four

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Speaker 1: out of five dogs a week. When points come at

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Speaker 1: a scarcity, I'll take them a lot. And Chad Milman's

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Speaker 1: joining us. I'll tell you the first one that jumps

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Speaker 1: out to me is the Chargers are still banged up.

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Speaker 1: The Falcons are getting points at home. I don't trust

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Speaker 1: the Chargers at all. I don't know if they're well coached.

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Speaker 1: And I will say this, I think there's real misgivings

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Speaker 1: in that locker room with what's happening, the play calling,

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Speaker 1: continued injuries. I don't love historically taking the Falcons, but

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Speaker 1: this looks like the play Sharper square, totally sharp play

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Speaker 1: right here for everything you just said, real lack of trust.

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Speaker 1: From a better's point of view, I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: try to speculate what's happened in the locker room. I

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Speaker 1: don't know anyone there, but I can tell you that

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Speaker 1: from a betting point of view, there's not a lot

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Speaker 1: of faith in what the Chargers are doing offensively. They

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Speaker 1: seem to have a pretty standard game plan in which

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Speaker 1: the the play is try to get some yards first

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Speaker 1: and second and then have Justin Herbert try to bail

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Speaker 1: them out on third down. And what really matters here

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Speaker 1: are two other things that you mentioned, One the coaching

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Speaker 1: to the injuries. Now, for the injuries, you don't know

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Speaker 1: what you're going to be getting from the wide receiver positions.

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Speaker 1: You know you're not going to have your best left tackle,

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Speaker 1: you know you're not going to have your best defensive end.

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert hasn't been amazing in the clutch plays that

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Speaker 1: he has been amazing at or at least made us

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Speaker 1: think he was a potential Super Bowl contender in years past.

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Speaker 1: But a lot of this is about the coaching, Like

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Speaker 1: betters continue to be impressed with Arthur Smith and what

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Speaker 1: he is doing with the Falcons their run scheme. They're

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Speaker 1: developing the way they're able to plug anyone in there,

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Speaker 1: and they can consistently get yards on the ground and

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Speaker 1: control the game. And they like the home team getting

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Speaker 1: three points. It's a good for them. I'll throw another

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Speaker 1: one at you. This is weird. I don't even I

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Speaker 1: can't believe I'm saying this. Commanders plus three against the Vikings. Now.

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Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago, when the Niners got Christian McCaffrey,

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Speaker 1: first of all, they spend a day trying to make

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Speaker 1: the deal work, and then they spent a lot of

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Speaker 1: practice time trying to get him integrated into the offense.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota is going to do the same thing. They're going

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Speaker 1: to spend a lot of time on t J. Hawkinson.

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Speaker 1: Those are rough weeks, right, You're spending a little more

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Speaker 1: time than you would. There's a new player. I'll say

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Speaker 1: this about the Commanders. Taylor Heineke may not be Carson Wentz.

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Speaker 1: They play better with him. They play better with him,

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Speaker 1: That's all I care about. It said about Bailey's appy,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if he's better than Mac, but sometimes

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Speaker 1: I think they play better with him. Sharper square. I

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Speaker 1: take the points and the Commanders. This is probably the

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Speaker 1: sharpest bet on the board. There's two bets that are

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Speaker 1: really really sharp right now. Lines have moved a decent

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Speaker 1: amount when we're talking about keynumb three, four, etc. This

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Speaker 1: game opened to three and a half, got bet down

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Speaker 1: to three. I think there's a couple of things going

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Speaker 1: on here. One, the perception is way way off on

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Speaker 1: how good the Vikings are and what the Commanders have been.

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Speaker 1: And I think a lot of people are still thinking

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Speaker 1: about the Commanders as the Carson Wentz team, not the

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Speaker 1: Taylor Heinik team. Taylor Henike, we've talked about this QBR

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Speaker 1: same as Carson Wentz for his career completion percentage, same

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Speaker 1: as Carson Wentz, and he's more mobile, so you're getting

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Speaker 1: a better playmaker who also let's break it down by

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Speaker 1: the game. The Vikings are terrible guarding against the other

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Speaker 1: team's number one receiver. Taylor Henike is going to the

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Speaker 1: number one receiver Terry McLaurin more often than Carson Wentz did. Right,

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Speaker 1: the Vikings have been incredibly lucky this year we do

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Speaker 1: the luck rankings. This is one of those games where

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Speaker 1: the luck ranking. Discrepancy is so high between the Vikings

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Speaker 1: and the Commanders. There's every single the past three weeks,

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Speaker 1: the Commanders are top ten in expected points per play, right,

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Speaker 1: so they're measuring how many points would you expect to

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Speaker 1: get on in particular play in a vacuum. Commanders are

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Speaker 1: playing exceptionally well. Commanders on defense twenty six percent in

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Speaker 1: pressure rate, that's in the top five. Kirk against pressure

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Speaker 1: twenty six in the league is a pastor. So there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of things that are lining up for the

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Speaker 1: Commanders to be the team that wise guys are backing.

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Speaker 1: This seems obvious, but I take a little pride in

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Speaker 1: calling the Jets over the Packers weeks ago and I said,

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Speaker 1: I just don't think green Bay is very good. Detroit

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Speaker 1: at home is pretty good, but if it's at three

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Speaker 1: and a half a division rival a green Bay team,

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Speaker 1: we have to be honest here, everything is under performing.

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Speaker 1: I take Detroit sharper square. Yeah, you gotta take Detroit,

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Speaker 1: and it is the sharp play. It's one that wise

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Speaker 1: guys are starting to hold their nose a little bit,

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Speaker 1: where earlier in the year all of the wise guys

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Speaker 1: loved the Lions and the Lions were covering for them,

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Speaker 1: and then there were a couple of weeks where they

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Speaker 1: got outplayed. In New England. They had a game against

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys where they probably should have covered, but the

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Speaker 1: box score showed a different result than what actually happened

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Speaker 1: sort of in the game and what you could have expected.

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Speaker 1: They were big on the Lions this past week against

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Speaker 1: Miami and yeah, yeah, right, and end up being a

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Speaker 1: push right. The Lions closed it four, The game ended

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Speaker 1: thirty one, twenty seven. A lot of people were nervous

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Speaker 1: about going back to back the Lions again, but the

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Speaker 1: bookmakers are hanging the hook right. That half point is

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Speaker 1: called the hook three and a half and the fewest

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Speaker 1: points the Lions have scored at home this season is

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Speaker 1: twenty seven. This past week they barely had DeAndre Swift playing.

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Speaker 1: Everyone expected him to play. That's why they liked him

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Speaker 1: so much, why they liked the Lions so much. This

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Speaker 1: past week, the Packers, they can't even get to twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: And the Lions have been doing this against defenses that

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Speaker 1: are much much better than the Packers, so they've got

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Speaker 1: a real advantage here. Let's say it's a shootout. I

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Speaker 1: think that's going to favor the lines and divisional home

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Speaker 1: dogs that under six the past four seasons and sample

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Speaker 1: size north of one hundred covered to sixty percent clips.

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Speaker 1: So precedent and what you're seeing on the field is

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Speaker 1: playing to your favor. Okay, I'm gonna throw a favorite

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Speaker 1: at you. The weather in Chicago is going to be okay,

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Speaker 1: I looked it up. Sloppy Saturday, fine, Sunday. I think

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Speaker 1: we have to come to terms with Miami. It's a

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Speaker 1: pretty good football team. Bradley chub will come in and

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Speaker 1: just rush a passer four and a halfs a lot,

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Speaker 1: but the weather is not a factor. I think we're

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Speaker 1: starting to doubt to a lot and they've given up

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Speaker 1: now Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. Those are two of

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Speaker 1: their best defensive players. It's not as fearsome as it

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Speaker 1: was defensively ten days ago. Now. I think eberw loses

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Speaker 1: an excellent coach, but those guys are really high end players.

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Speaker 1: Those are difference makers. I'm gonna go with Miami here,

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Speaker 1: and also Chase Claypool. I think he'll be great. I

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Speaker 1: don't think he's great. Sunday. I'm gonna take Miami a

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Speaker 1: favorite here, Sharper Square, totally square. This was the other

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Speaker 1: game that we got the most feedback about This week.

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Speaker 1: On the Favorites, we'll do our shop Calls segment. The

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Speaker 1: wise guys will call us after our early week podcast,

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Speaker 1: and then on the late week podcast will give you

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Speaker 1: listeners feedback on what they most talked about the two

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Speaker 1: games they most talked about. Washington. I mentioned that earlier

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Speaker 1: and the Bears, and this game has moved from five

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Speaker 1: and a half down to five to four and a half,

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Speaker 1: even after the Bradley Chub trade, which you would expect. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins, who people think is a stronger team, just

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Speaker 1: got stronger. It didn't move after the Chase Cleaypool trade.

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Speaker 1: It moved after the Bradley Chub trade in the direction

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Speaker 1: of the Bears. Here's what I think about what you

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Speaker 1: just said regarding Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. This defense

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Speaker 1: was terrible, truly terrible. Didn't matter if you had Roquan Smith.

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Speaker 1: Didn't matter if you had Robert Quinn. He hadn't done

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Speaker 1: anything this year. Roquan Swith is making all those tackles

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Speaker 1: because the Bears have nobody else, so he's the only

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Speaker 1: guy in a position to do anything, and they still

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Speaker 1: weren't very good what they have done now, since they

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Speaker 1: had that Thursday night meltdown against Washington, they have realized

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Speaker 1: how to use justin fields. They are putting him in

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Speaker 1: more RPOs, more designed runs. He is getting rid of

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Speaker 1: the ball faster now they've gotten him a weapon and

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Speaker 1: Chase Claypool. They're building this guy's confidence game to game.

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Speaker 1: He had his best game in the season last week

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Speaker 1: against the Cowboys in a twenty point loss that really

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Speaker 1: could have been much closer. So the wise guys are

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Speaker 1: starting to find some love for this Bears team. And

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Speaker 1: so they've bet the Bears at plus five and a

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Speaker 1: half plus five and it is down to four and

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Speaker 1: a half. Here's the last game. I like Ravens just

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Speaker 1: lost a receiver for their game Monday night in New Orleans.

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Speaker 1: That one of the loudest crowds in the league. I

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Speaker 1: think the Saints have really good personnel and I took

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Speaker 1: them last week. I'm going to take him again. I

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Speaker 1: think the Ravens are a team that plays close games

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Speaker 1: because there are absolute limitations down the field. And now

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Speaker 1: they've lost another receiver. It's just too many points. And

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Speaker 1: you know, what Man Superdome on Monday Night. Those people

399
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Speaker 1: don't need a reason to party. They do it is

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Speaker 1: I always believe it's like a five point advantage Monday

401
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 1: night in New Orleans is not your typical three. It

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00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: feels way closer to four to five. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: take the Saints sharper square. That's a sharp play. And look,

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00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 1: the Ravens just got Rocan Smith. That's not really going

405
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Speaker 1: to matter when you're talking about this circumstances you just described,

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Speaker 1: which is the Saints at home in prime time are

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Speaker 1: a different team, and they are a different team. They

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Speaker 1: can quote, they can pressure the quarterback without having the blitz.

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Speaker 1: They are a team that is starting to see Alvin

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Speaker 1: Kamara get much much better. And the key you're here

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Speaker 1: for them is always going to be how does Andy

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Speaker 1: Dalton avoid the mistakes. We've seen what happens when he

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Speaker 1: avoids the mistakes. We've seen what happens when he makes

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Speaker 1: the mistakes. The wise guys are going to count on

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Speaker 1: getting a short home dog in a really get right

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Speaker 1: spot in prime time against a team that hasn't been

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Speaker 1: able to close anybody out. So totally sharp con All right,

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Speaker 1: now we do the game that I thought about. But

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Speaker 1: I want your professional opinion. Then we do the game

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Speaker 1: that I missed. So let's start with a game I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna bet, but I want your professional opinion, New England.

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Speaker 1: I would have taken New England minus four and a half.

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Speaker 1: I do worry about their offense, but I have a

424
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 1: history of Belichick and young quarterbacks, and I saw it

425
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 1: again last weekend. He just literally undresses them. Andy read

426
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 1: off a bye. Belichick against the young quarterback. I bet

427
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: both a lot and it's won me a lot, But

428
00:24:55,920 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 1: I worry about what New England has. Tell Sharper Square,

429
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: where would I go if I did bet it? You

430
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 1: totally bet on the Colts, and it's everything you're saying

431
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: about Belichick is true, and what he did against the

432
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 1: Jets is totally true. But what was the final score

433
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: of that game? It was close? Yeah, it's close. So

434
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 1: do I really want to bet on the Patriots as

435
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: nearly six point favorites right when Shack Leonard is probably

436
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 1: off a snap count. This Colts defense is top five,

437
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 1: top six in the NFL and sort of all the

438
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 1: advanced metrics DVOA rush success rate, all the things that

439
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: betters think about from the running side of the ball.

440
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: On defense, that's what they're great at. That's the strength

441
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 1: of the Patriots offense. Matt Jones and this passing offense

442
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 1: our bottom third in passing the ball downfield. So you've

443
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: got a limited Pats offense get giving a lot of points.

444
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 1: They couldn't beat the Jets by more than five. And

445
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson is probably the worst quarterback in the NFL

446
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 1: right now, and Matt Jones is terrible against zone defense.

447
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 1: That's what the Colts do really well. So I think

448
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: the wise guys are looking at the number more than

449
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 1: they're thinking about is it Sam Allinger, is it Bill

450
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: Belichick against a rookie? They're thinking about a Patriots team

451
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 1: that is pretty limited getting a relatively big number. And

452
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 1: let me give you one more stat. Let me give

453
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: you a stat, all right, all right, great stat. Underdogs

454
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 1: this season between three and ten points. So this game

455
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 1: is at five and a half of forty one and

456
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 1: twenty one against the spread this season, covering sixty six

457
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: percent at the time. And by the way, those underdogs

458
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 1: twenty five thirty six and one straight up. So if

459
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 1: you're betting those underdogs on the money line, you're winning

460
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 1: your ROI is twenty six percent. Can I add this

461
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: as America's honesty broker and a humble man, Yes, I

462
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: appear to have been right on my Zach Wilson as

463
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 1: Johnny Manziella with an arm take, go ahead, give it

464
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 1: to me, bring the heat. Colin as America's honesty broker

465
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: and humble you are genius And the Zach Wilson take

466
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,360
Speaker 1: is incredibly spot on. And I will never understand why

467
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 1: anybody thought this is the guy When everyone could say

468
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 1: he had an NFL offensive line at BYU, had a

469
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: thousand years to throw the ball, and was playing against

470
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 1: weakened competition. It made no sense that all of a

471
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 1: sudden this was going to be the guy. And I

472
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 1: think you've seen it with Robert Salo, right, he basically

473
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: just decided this guy stinks. I'm not banking my career

474
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: on this guy. He had Briefe Hall. He was making

475
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: sure brief Hall got the ball, making sure his defense

476
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: is going to win him some games, and even against

477
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: the Patriots with a terrible cornerback, they still kept it

478
00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:00,119
Speaker 1: pretty close. So you are one hundred percent right. The

479
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 1: Jets already got to find a new quarterback. Okay, the

480
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: game I missed? Can I guess good? No, you don't

481
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: like favorites. I was gonna say Raiders minus one and

482
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: a half at Jackson. Oh god, no, a thousand percent

483
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 1: taking the Jacks. It's it's gonna burn me every week,

484
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 1: but I'm going to do it every single week. This

485
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 1: is a not very good a Raiders team that is

486
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: playing against a jack team that is consistently unlucky. And

487
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 1: what I mean unlucky, like, what are the parameters that

488
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 1: go into being unlucky? Kind of those fluke turnover plays,

489
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: those not converting a terrible it's terrible. But there's still

490
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: a team that is playing two more wins statistically than

491
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 1: they have in the standings, and so I'm getting them

492
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: as an underdog at home against a Raiders team that

493
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 1: I just don't think it is very good. So why

494
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: wouldn't I play the Jaguar all right? Which game that

495
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: I miss? Seahawks at the Cardinals? Why I wanted to

496
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: take that? Damn? I wanted to take that game. You

497
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 1: may have talked me into that, do it. I can't

498
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 1: figure out why Arizona is favored here. You have two

499
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: defenses that statistically are relatively the same, although you're starting

500
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: to see the Seahawks defense the last couple of weeks, yeah,

501
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: when more towards the upper getting better, getting pass rushed.

502
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 1: The next last couple of weeks, they're getting much much better.

503
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: And then you look at the offenses. The Seahawks have

504
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: one of the most explosive passing offenses in the NFL

505
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: for every metric that anyone cares about, and now their

506
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: rushing game is getting so much better because of what's

507
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 1: happening with Kenneth Walker. So this is a very good team.

508
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 1: I'm not saying like they've gone from being a team

509
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 1: everyone thought was going to be the worst in the

510
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: NFC to all of a sudden being a favorite to

511
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: win the NFC. But they're better than the Cardinals, and

512
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: that's where we're talking about the most important thing. This

513
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 1: is a coaching miss and not just like Okay, Pete

514
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: Carroll's an underdog in his career, is brilliant, winning at

515
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 1: more than a sixty percent clip. Cliff Kingsbury, very small,

516
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: sampled size, has won maybe half as many games as

517
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: he's lost as a favorite. I think very specifically, there's

518
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: there's a metric called success rate, which basically means how

519
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: well do you do in early downs. The Cards bring

520
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 1: thirty first in play success rate meeting. They don't do

521
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: very well in early downs, and then they depend on

522
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray to bail them out. The Seahawks third in

523
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: success rate meeting on the early downs in a series.

524
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: They are leading themselves into more successful drives and easier

525
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: plays for their quarterback. This team shouldn't be an underdog

526
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 1: right now. That was good, A lot of good information.

527
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: You know what. A lot of people doubted you for years.

528
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 1: Not me, not this guy. No, listen, you recognize town.

529
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: You saw. It was actual years ago. You plucked me

530
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: off the street. I remember, I remember. We were in

531
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: Building two. We're walking through the hallway. You're like, kid,

532
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: I don't know you, but you got kid? All right, buddy,

533
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: good seeing you. I'll see you later the volume. Make

534
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: sure to check out The Draymond Green Show. I brought

535
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,719
Speaker 1: Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more

536
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 1: entertaining voices in sports. Unique perspective understands behind the rope

537
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 1: also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine,

538
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Draymond Green show wherever

539
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, only on the Volume Podcast Network