1 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: So the big questions this, how do investors like us 2 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:12,159 Speaker 1: get access to the ideas, information, and most importantly, the 3 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: right people that give us the tools and information we 4 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: need to make informed and educated decisions to have success. 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: That is the question, and this podcast will give us 6 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: the answers. This is Mark Moss, your host. Let's get 7 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: this started. Welcome to another episode of the Market Disruptors podcast. 8 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,880 Speaker 1: Today I am sitting down with George Gammon. He has 9 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: stormed YouTube and created quite a buzz, growing a massive 10 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 1: audience in a very short amount of time because of 11 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 1: his super detailed analysis into the financial markets. He has 12 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: a really unique way of diving into these deep subjects 13 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: and making them really easy to understand. And today I 14 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 1: want to sit down with him to see what he 15 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: thinks is the endgame? What are the actionable things that 16 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: we can be doing that we can be thinking about. 17 00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: What are the measures that we can take right now 18 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: to tect ourselves and not just protect ourselves and survive, 19 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,759 Speaker 1: but to even thrive in this market. No one better 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: to sit down and talk to than George Gammon. I've 21 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: been looking forward to this interview and here you go. 22 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: Let's jump into it. Hey everyone, welcome, to another episode 23 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: of the Market Disruptor Show. I am sitting here today 24 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 1: with George Gammon. He has taken the internet, taken YouTube 25 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 1: by storm recently with his super cool videos with the 26 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: white boards. If you haven't seen him, you need to, 27 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: so I'll linked to it down below. UM has this 28 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 1: an amazing way to take these complex subjects and make 29 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: them very easy to understand, especially with the graphics. And 30 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: I'm super excited to have you George, thanks for joining. Hey, 31 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 1: thanks for having me. I'm I'm excited to have a 32 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: chat and a lot to talk about that for sure, 33 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: so much to talk about. And you know, I've been 34 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: I've been doing a analysis and commentary for quite a 35 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: long time and sometimes you get these like boring patches, 36 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: but not right now. There's more than enough to go around. UM. 37 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: I've been watching your videos and the last several videos 38 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: you've on they're all, you know, talking about the topic 39 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: of the moment, which is the bailouts, the stimulus, the 40 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 1: unlimited you know, quantitative easy and etcetera. And uh, you've 41 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: really been breaking down like all these like acronyms that 42 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: the FED keeps coming up with. Maybe tell us about 43 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: some of these acronyms and kind of what that means. 44 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: Ah jeez. Well, the bottom line is they're just trying 45 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 1: to buy everything in sight. So I think if you 46 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,920 Speaker 1: start from there, it's much easier to understand any of 47 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: the I call them four letters solutions. But you know, 48 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 1: the news changes so quickly. First it was all the 49 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: four letter quote unquote solutions that they had back in 50 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight. But now they've added more and 51 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: they're now coming up with these five letter solutions that 52 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: even the letters are expanding, just like their balance sheet. 53 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: So but really, what each program, let's call it, is 54 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: all about is just giving the Fed and excuse to 55 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:07,639 Speaker 1: either lend money directly to corporations or to buy their 56 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: equity or buy their existing debt. It's really what it's 57 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 1: all about. So the the end game, I think is 58 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: the FED is going to have stocks, bonds that they're 59 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: going to own a lot of the equity and debt 60 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: of the S and P five hundred. So it's all 61 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: going from the private sector onto their balance sheet, if 62 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: you think about it from their standpoint, makes sense because 63 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 1: our economy is really all about asset bubbles, debt, and confidence. 64 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 1: That's what our economy is built on and the FED 65 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: I think knows that and they won't admit it, but 66 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: I think they understand it well. So they understand they 67 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: have to keep those asset bubbles inflated at all costs. 68 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: So if you're just thinking this through, like what would 69 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: I do, Well, I want to take all of the 70 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: assets that can get a haircut, and I want to 71 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: put them on my balance sheet because I never have 72 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: to sell. Yeah, the FET doesn't have a profit and loss, 73 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: so if we get let's let's not give away the 74 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: punchline before we build it up a little bit here. Well, 75 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:19,600 Speaker 1: I could go on for hours about that. But as 76 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: far as the specific programs that achieve this objective you 77 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: want me to touch on that, No, we don't. I mean, 78 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 1: we don't need to dig into each one. But it's 79 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: interesting because you're kind of showing how they've been adding 80 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: more and more and more. As you said, they're actually 81 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: getting the acronyms are getting longer. Yeah, it seems like 82 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: basically each one gives them more power, more leeway. Correct. 83 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: At first they were um allowing the primary dealers to 84 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: buy assets and they were kind of loaning them. Now 85 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 1: they're like, shoot, why go through them, let's just buy 86 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: it ourselves exactly. That's a great point. That's a great point, 87 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: and that's the biggest difference from what I've seen between 88 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 1: what they first came out with and what they've come 89 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: out with more recently. The first thing was just the 90 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 1: primary dealer credit facility, and that's just saying, okay, primary dealer, 91 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: whatever is on your balance sheet, will take it from you, 92 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: and we'll give you a quote unquote loan. But if 93 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: you look at the the fine print, it's yeah, it's alone, 94 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: but it's at zero percent interest and most likely they 95 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 1: can roll it over indefinitely. So is that really alone? 96 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: And then excuse me, so they say that's to support 97 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 1: the primary dealers, but why couldn't the primary dealers was 98 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 1: one point five trillion and access reserves actually be proactive 99 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 1: and go into the market by the stocks for the 100 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 1: Federal reserve, and then the Fed gives them this loan 101 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: at zero percent interests that they can roll over, uh, indefinitely. 102 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: So that kind of gets them around the laws that 103 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 1: were set up. But to your point, the new abbreviations 104 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 1: or acronyms they've come up with, these five letter doozies, 105 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,919 Speaker 1: they just allow the FED to go straight into the 106 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 1: market and give credit, extend credit to a lot of entities, 107 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 1: not just corporations. But it gives them, uh like they 108 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: just call them investors and I don't know who these 109 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:19,479 Speaker 1: people are, but it gives financing to investors. And keep 110 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 1: in mind, this is a non recourse loan, So again, 111 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: is this really alone here? So they're giving this financing 112 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: to investors for them to continue to buy asset and securities. Well, 113 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 1: these asset back securities have student loan debt, credit card debts, 114 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: they have subprime auto loans, they have s B A loans. 115 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: So in essence, although that's not technically going onto the 116 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: FED balance sheet, it's going onto a balance sheet of 117 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 1: an entity that really doesn't have to sell and prior 118 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 1: and things change so quickly. If you would have said 119 00:06:56,760 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: last week the FED would go direct and buy the 120 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: corporate bond market or something like that, people would have said, no, no, no, 121 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: they can't do that because of this stipulation or this 122 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: law or this regulation and have to be an Act 123 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: of Congress or the government would have to change something. Well, 124 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: they pretty much just ignored that and said, yeah, it's 125 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: it's the law, but whatever, we don't care, and then 126 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: just no one calls him out on it because the 127 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: talking heads at CNBC or the quote unquote market, they 128 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: want the FED to come in and prop things up 129 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: because they're taking a fifty haircut in their portfolio in 130 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: the last thirty days. And you got Acmin coming out 131 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 1: on CNBC and basically crying trying to beg people to 132 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: buy stocks. And I have nothing against him. I think 133 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: he's a brilliant guy and I'd love to interview him. 134 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: But well, I'll just say that he is emotional and 135 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: really pleading with people to get out there and not 136 00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: only stay home, but also to to kind of buy 137 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: stuff box Like, Okay, well, why why is he doing this? 138 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: He's got to be talking his book. And I'd be 139 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: pretty emotional too if I ran ten billion dollars and 140 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: I just lost five billion of it in the last 141 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: thirty days. But anyway, the bottom line is every week, 142 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: every day that we move forward into this crisis, we're 143 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 1: seeing the FED take end the government for that matter, 144 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: taking more and more measures that really just ignore the 145 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 1: law and the bottom lines, are just gonna do whatever 146 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: they think they need to do in order to keep 147 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 1: the bubbles inflated. Now, Um, we kind of jumped right 148 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 1: into thick of it because that's kind of where we are. Um. 149 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: But if we want to just rewind the clock a 150 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 1: little bit, this is not new. This is not because 151 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 1: of the virus. This is been going on for a 152 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: long period of time. I mean, you've been talking about 153 00:08:54,920 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: this well before. So this is um, this isn't something like, oh, 154 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 1: we have this crisis, let's do this. They've been doing this, right, 155 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:08,319 Speaker 1: this is only accelerating it. Or is this completely new. Well, 156 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: there's a couple of programs that are completely new, but 157 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: it's still the same. It's a continuation, right, it's in 158 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: the continuation and acceleration. Uh, yeah, with it, with this, 159 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 1: with some of them. Right, with some of these programs, 160 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: I believe, if I'm not mistaken, that they are new 161 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,319 Speaker 1: and they are to get around having to go through 162 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: the primary dealers, and the primary dealers make decisions or 163 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: take action in order for those reserves that the FED 164 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: has to get out into the system. But as far 165 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 1: as UM, the majority of the acronyms, they used them 166 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight. But you know, to be clear, 167 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 1: quantitative easing started off in the end of two thousand 168 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: eight and was supposed to be a quote unquote temporary measure. 169 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 1: Remember Ben Bernanke came out promised everyone that wasn't monetizing 170 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: the debt, because the definition of monetizing the debt would 171 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: be if they kept it on the Fed's balance cheat. No, no, no, 172 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: just bringing these treasuries onto the balance sheet temporarily. We're 173 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:07,359 Speaker 1: gonna unwind as soon as we're out of the crisis. 174 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 1: And who yelling said it's just gonna be just like uh, 175 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: watching paint dry. Yeah, I think we're her words or someone. 176 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: And so we found that it's not going to be 177 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: like watching paint dry because they try to unwind the 178 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 1: balance sheet. And by the way, after q E one, 179 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: now have q E two, f q E three, we 180 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: try to unwind. That doesn't work. We have the not que, 181 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 1: which was them bailing out the repo market back in 182 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: September sevent And so my point is we've had this 183 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:41,680 Speaker 1: quote unquote temporary stimulus from QE that's now not only 184 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 1: permanent but growing exponentially. And then you combine that everything 185 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: that they do has the same type of effect. Why 186 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: because it goes back to what I was saying earlier 187 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: with the entire economy being built on asset bubbles, you 188 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: continually have to print more and more and more money. 189 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: You have to be more interventionist to make sure that 190 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: those bubbles aren't collapsing. So let's look at the stimulus. 191 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: They just came out with two trillion dollars. Okay, well 192 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 1: we had a stimulus package back into nine, but that 193 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: was only roughly eight billion. So you see the amount 194 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: of queue that they're having to do, The amount of stimulus, 195 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: the amount of the deficits that the government has to 196 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 1: run in order to profit these bubbles just gets more, more, 197 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: more and more. So the point is any temporary program 198 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: they come up with, whether it's in RIPO, whether it's 199 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: in I think now with these four letter acronyms, I 200 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: don't think these are gonna go away anytime soon. I 201 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: think they'll be more permanent. And it just gets to 202 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:50,439 Speaker 1: a point where you're almost like Japan, where the Fed 203 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: owns the bond market and they own whatever et s. 204 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: If it gets bad enough, I think they just ignore 205 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: that and stocks directly or bonds directly. But it's it's 206 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: not temporary. It just it keeps growing and growing and growing, 207 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: and right now Let's remember too, the FED did this 208 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: originally to give confidence to the market, so they had 209 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 1: kind of this Fed put and so that means the 210 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: Fed is kind of back stopping the market. Well, we 211 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: know right now that's gone, that's expired, because every time 212 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: the Fed came out with a bigger bazuka over the 213 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, the markets just shaking it off. 214 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: It goes up for the next hour and then just tanks. 215 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: The only thing that's um kind of propelled this market 216 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:42,960 Speaker 1: higher is this stimulus package that the government has come 217 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: out with. But what happens when the sugar high from 218 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: the stimulus from the stimulus package wears off and all 219 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 1: of a sudden people go back to reality and say, 220 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: oh wait, the job report or the unemployment numbers went 221 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: up by three point three million, right, And then what 222 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:06,080 Speaker 1: happens next week when the there's another three million jobs 223 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: that are lost and and generally, if you look through history, 224 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: you'll find that the tipping point for the United States 225 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: going into a recession is always about the unemployment rate. Right, 226 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 1: So when the unemployment rate starts to spike, that's when 227 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: things get bad. And not only are we spiking now 228 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:30,680 Speaker 1: from an all time low. But we're just I mean, 229 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: it's a it's a a parabolic move when you look 230 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: at a chart. And I'd also like to remind people 231 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: that are comparing this to two thousand, eight thousand, nine 232 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 1: that back then the jobless claims the number we receive 233 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 1: today at its height was maybe six hundred thousand, SI 234 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: there you go, and then today it's it's three point 235 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 1: two or three point three millions. So the previous high 236 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 1: was I think, and it was seven hundred thousand, two 237 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: six fifty and now now millions. Yeah, so this this 238 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,319 Speaker 1: seems like um to me. You know, if we trace 239 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: this back to the break from the gold standard, if 240 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 1: that's nine one wherever number you want to start looking at, 241 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 1: we've started building up the debt and it seems like 242 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: a D two eight seven, two thousand, two thousand and eight, 243 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 1: two thousand and eleven. It keeps trying to de leverage 244 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: that debt, right right. The Fed just keeps, no, don't, 245 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: let's just pump more debt in. But there's so much 246 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: bad debt out there, as you say, all this junk 247 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 1: that's out there, and it's just it just it just 248 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: goes away in the blink of an eye and and 249 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: and that's what they're doing. They just keep trying to 250 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: like reinflate it with more debt and then each time 251 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: it just takes more and more and more. Yeah, that's 252 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: exactly what happens. And it's just like taking a drug 253 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: or uh, you know, drinking or anything that the more 254 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: of the drug that you take, the more you need 255 00:14:54,400 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: to get high diminishing returns. Yeah, exactly. So I think 256 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 1: that's what's going on right now. We know that the 257 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: FED is now pushing on a string, and at what 258 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: point do we get where the government stimulus package has 259 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: the same type of effect. And that's when you've really 260 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 1: got problems because if you can't inflate a bubble through 261 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: monetary policy, and if you can't do it through fiscal policy, 262 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 1: then what's left other than the FED doing what I 263 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: think they've set themselves up to do now, and that's 264 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 1: just to buy and take the private sector balance sheet 265 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: onto the balance sheet of the FED. You know, it's 266 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 1: a it's a scary thought thinking about that. And before 267 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: we dive into that, I'm just curious. You know, we 268 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: talked about the law of diminishing returns, and so we 269 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: can see that right it was fifteen trillion, thirty trillion, 270 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: I mean, what's it going to be this time? Right? 271 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: Each time it gets more and more, and it almost 272 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 1: seems like more money is being put out than the 273 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: economic growth that we're getting back in return. Or we're 274 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: almost at that point? Is that so like we're spending 275 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: more than we're getting are we? I mean there yet? Yeah, 276 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: there's been several studies done that show once the debt 277 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 1: to GDP gets up to a certain level in a country, 278 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: that every single dollar or every single um uh yeah, 279 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 1: I guess every dollar or the government spends they get 280 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: back less in return. So there's an opposite money multiplier 281 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 1: in fact, and I think we're there. I think the 282 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: number that they came out with I wish I could 283 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: remember the specific study. It's very famous, but they said 284 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: about a hundred to a hundred and ten percent of 285 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 1: g d P. And I want to make sure that 286 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: people are are clear that because a lot of people 287 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: in the market or on Twitter, they say, well, yeah, 288 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: we could be like Japan where they're buying all of 289 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: these e t f s and the bonds like we 290 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 1: talked about earlier, and they're printing all of this money 291 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: and it really hasn't created inflation. It's more created kind 292 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: of a zombie economy where they just have very low 293 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: deflation for for decades on end. And although that is 294 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 1: a possibility, I think in the United States, it's not 295 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 1: a probability. The probability is very low that we see 296 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 1: that because of the dynamics with the reserve currency, the dollar, 297 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,919 Speaker 1: and how much the FED will have to print, and 298 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 1: the fact that we're that we're seeing the supply chains 299 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: being disrupted within the United States. And I think with 300 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: what's going on with the the the illness will call it. 301 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:36,479 Speaker 1: I don't know if you're gonna put this on YouTube, 302 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 1: but we'll say we'll say the illness. Everyone knows what 303 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: I'm talking about. There you go, there you go. Yah. 304 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 1: I think you can see a situation where there's a 305 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 1: lot less goods and services that are imported, and if 306 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: there are fewer goods and services being imported, there's more 307 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: dollars or there's fewer dollars being exported, so more dollars 308 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 1: are staying within the domestic economy. And if you combine 309 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 1: out with m m T, which is a part of 310 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: the stimulus package, and you combine that with the Fed 311 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: creating all of these additional deposits, because as I'm sure 312 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: you know, what, what most people don't understand is when 313 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: the FED creates money and they just we call it 314 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,640 Speaker 1: print money, they're they're not really printing the money that 315 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: you that most people think of. It's it's not it 316 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: is kind of dollars, but it's more it's it's it's 317 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 1: bank money. It's just reserves for the for the banks 318 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 1: and the primary dealers that are under the Fed's umbrella. 319 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 1: So in order for the money that the FED prints 320 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 1: to get out into the real economy, well before it 321 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 1: took uh an action of the primary deal they would 322 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 1: have to do something. They'd have to buy a financial asset, 323 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: or they would have to create a loan, and that 324 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 1: creates an additional deposit, which makes the money supply grow. 325 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: So if you have the FED now going directly to 326 00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: the real economy to create deposits, the government is doing 327 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: it as well with MMT and all these other programs. 328 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: And you have the fact that there's fewer dollars escaping 329 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 1: the United States, then you have just simple more dollars 330 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: chasing the same amount of goods or services. Or I 331 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,919 Speaker 1: would argue actually fewer goods and services because if we 332 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,679 Speaker 1: start not only the supply chains being broken down right 333 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: now because of this illness, but also in the future, 334 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: if you have Trump or Biden or whomever come out 335 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: and say, listen, we need to stop producing face masks 336 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,919 Speaker 1: in China. We can't be reliant on uh India for 337 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 1: our pharmaceuticals. We can't be reliant on Taiwan for our ventilators. 338 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: So we've got to do all these things in the 339 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 1: United States. Well, that takes time. First and all. You 340 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: can't wave a magic wand and have all these supply 341 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: chains appear. So in the interim you have a reduced 342 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: amount of supply, and even when that supply comes online, 343 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: it's at a much much higher price because you're producing 344 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: at in a developed economy as opposed to a Vietnam 345 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: something like that. So the bottom line is you have 346 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 1: less goods and services, you have more dollars chasing them 347 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: and fewer dollars escaping. So if you have fewer dollars escaping, 348 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 1: you can have a quote unquote strong dollar. And I 349 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: talked about this in a video this morning, but you 350 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: can have a strong dollar. So every single time the 351 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 1: average Joe turns on CNBC. It's the dollars strong, Holy cow, 352 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,640 Speaker 1: the dollars strong. The d x y is at one ten, 353 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,680 Speaker 1: it's at one dollars. Uh, you know, crushing the euro, 354 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 1: it's crushing the Aussie dollar or the yen, anything like this. 355 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 1: While at the same time, the average Joe is going 356 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 1: down to whole foods and the price of his apples 357 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 1: are going from a dollar to two dollars to three dollars, 358 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,199 Speaker 1: to four dollars to five dollars. And so there's this 359 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: disconnect I think with people. And that's something that I'm 360 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: trying to preach as much as as I can that hey, 361 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: let's not let's understand that you have to compartmentalize your 362 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:10,679 Speaker 1: personal cp I with the strength or weakness of the 363 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,160 Speaker 1: dollar that you hear on TV. And and this is why. 364 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: It's because of what's going on with the FED, the 365 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: government and the the illness. And but I also I 366 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:27,120 Speaker 1: want to be clear too that the economy was extremely, 367 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 1: extremely weak, and it was built on a house of cards. 368 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: This at some point in time, we would have had 369 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 1: this happen, whether it was with this illness or something else. 370 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: And a lot of people say, oh, we can have 371 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,959 Speaker 1: this v shape recovery, which we might have due to liquidity, 372 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 1: but we won't have due to fundamentals. Because they say, well, 373 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate was low, we had such a great 374 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: economy prior to this. My rebuttal to that is always 375 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: very simple. If we had such a great economy prior 376 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 1: to going into this crisis, why did we have interest 377 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,880 Speaker 1: rates at zero? Right? Right? Like why did the economy 378 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: need interest rates solo? Why was it when Powell took 379 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 1: rates up to two or two point to five all 380 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,879 Speaker 1: of a sudden things started to implode? Right? If we 381 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: had such an awesome economy, If we had such an 382 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 1: amazing economy, don't you think we should be able to 383 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: normalize interest rates? And why can't the Fed unwind their 384 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 1: balance sheet? Why do they have to do repo? Why 385 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 1: did they have to do que if we've got such 386 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,359 Speaker 1: an amazing economy, right, Yeah, it was definitely cracking up 387 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: well before the sickness. It was it was it was 388 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 1: kind of like I called it at first, I said 389 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 1: it was like the pin prick on a balloon, but 390 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 1: really it was like getting a nail and a tire 391 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: that was already deflating. Yeah, so, uh, one of those 392 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: but you know, yeah, you're right, everybody saying the dollars 393 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 1: too strong, the dollars too strong. I see lots of 394 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: people calling, you know, to let's weaken the dollar, weaken 395 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 1: the dollar, um. But of course the dollar is the strongest. 396 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: Everyone's flying to liquidity. UM. They're trying to do that 397 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: right by printing more and lowering rates and all these programs. UM. 398 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: But I guess your last video you were kind of 399 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: saying that these limited, these unlimited billouts actually lead to 400 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: the dollar going down. So right now it's the dollars 401 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: going up. But they're doing these bellts to try to 402 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,399 Speaker 1: weaken them. But you think they overshoot the goal and 403 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: maybe they just it just ends up making it two weeks. Well, 404 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: we've got to define what we're talking about by a week. 405 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 1: Dollar first and foremost. So if you're talking about the 406 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: dollar relative to foreign currencies, that would be one answer. 407 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: But if we're talking about the dollar relative to the 408 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,679 Speaker 1: apples that you buy, the whole foods, that would be 409 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 1: a completely different answer. Or maybe the dollar compared to 410 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: the bond market, or the dollar compared to a specific 411 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 1: stock or the SNP. So I I really want to 412 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: encourage people to compartmentalize those. So I could see a 413 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: situation because of what I explained before that the dollar 414 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: could definitely go up. I mean, I agree with Brent 415 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 1: John's and well, I can totally see where he's coming from, 416 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 1: whether it's a guy like Brent or Jeff Snyder or 417 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 1: anyone who's in that route Paul with that dollar bowl camp. 418 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 1: But what they're saying is isn't necessarily that the prices 419 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 1: of goods and services, or the price of your healthcare 420 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 1: or the price of gasoline or your rent is going 421 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,919 Speaker 1: to go down. They're saying that the value of the 422 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 1: dollar relative to the Euro is going to go up. 423 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 1: That's a totally different argument. And I do see a 424 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 1: possibility where they'd have to come in with a Plaza 425 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: accord two point oh and artificially lower the value of 426 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 1: the dollar. They a meeting the FED in the foreign 427 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: FX markets to pump enough dollars out there. They've got 428 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 1: the swap lines going right now with the other central banks, 429 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: with the majority of central banks except for China, and 430 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 1: that could ease the pressure. But even if you ease 431 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 1: that pressure, it's still kind of creating more dollar demand 432 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:03,360 Speaker 1: in the future. So and I don't. It's it's difficult 433 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:08,439 Speaker 1: because you've got them some countries that would really like 434 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 1: to see a dollar being devalued. Some countries would not 435 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 1: be too keen on that. So I don't think you're 436 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 1: going to get a universal Hey, yeah, let's all hold hands, kumbaya. 437 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: Let's bring down the dollar like they did in nineteen 438 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: eighty five. I think it was. But there, I think 439 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 1: the FED can just say, listen, we don't care what 440 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: you want to do. We're just gonna take five trillion 441 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:35,199 Speaker 1: dollars and pump it into the FX markets and just 442 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 1: be like a currency manipulator, just like China has done 443 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: for so long, and they just bring it down. Now, 444 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 1: that's not to say, now let me play devil's advocate here. 445 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 1: That's not to say that even if they did that, 446 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: you would say you would see hyper inflation in the 447 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 1: United States. Let's remember that when they did plase accord 448 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 1: one point. Oh, we'll call it, the value of the 449 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 1: dollar in the FX market, especially relative to the the 450 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,880 Speaker 1: German mark and the yen, went down over two years 451 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: by five zero. But if you look at inflation in 452 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: the United States, it's still only was up maybe five 453 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: or six percent. Per year, So again, completely completely different buckets, 454 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: right yeah, And and the way they measure that inflation, 455 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 1: like you said, doesn't take everything new an account. So 456 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 1: everyone knows the price of gas went up, and the 457 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 1: price of homes went up, and you know, all the 458 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,679 Speaker 1: things that we need. The CPI doesn't measure those for 459 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,680 Speaker 1: some reason, right, Uh, school when up, healthcare went up, 460 00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: I mean everything's gone up, right Yeah. And everyone's CPI 461 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,960 Speaker 1: is different because of what they buy. So my cp I, 462 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 1: as an example, is completely different than some like a 463 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:51,119 Speaker 1: school teacher that's making thirty dollars a year because the 464 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 1: prices of the stuff I buy is, uh, it might 465 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,439 Speaker 1: be staying the same, or even if I'm buying the 466 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: same types of items like food, let's call it, it's 467 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 1: a much lower percentage of my overall income. Where if 468 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: you've got a school teacher making forty grand year, where 469 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: the majority of her or his income is going to rent, healthcare, food, gas, 470 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:21,400 Speaker 1: he or she could experience fiftcent inflation per year, right, 471 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 1: those specific items that occupy of their paycheck. And um, 472 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 1: all while the dollar is getting strong or supposedly very strong. 473 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: So um, it's uh, it's like watching a car crash. Right, 474 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,679 Speaker 1: we're witnessing this all in real time. It's an it's 475 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:47,160 Speaker 1: an interesting time to be watching the markets. We can 476 00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 1: see the development that is going down. We can see uh, 477 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: you know models like you said, maybe Japan, maybe it's different, 478 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,239 Speaker 1: et cetera. What do you think I mean? On your 479 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,920 Speaker 1: YouTube channel you say helping you build wealth and thrive. 480 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,439 Speaker 1: So how do we take this information and discern it 481 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: in a way that we could try to thrive from this? Um? Right? 482 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 1: How do we decipher this? What are we watching for 483 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: and what are we trying to do? Well? First of all, 484 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:18,439 Speaker 1: I like to try to encourage people to compartmentalize their 485 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,439 Speaker 1: portfolio as well. So what I do is I have 486 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 1: ten percent for insurance for an investment, which I would 487 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,399 Speaker 1: define is something that pays me to own it, and 488 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 1: then ten percent for a speculation, which I define is 489 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,879 Speaker 1: just something I'm betting on the price going up. His 490 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,400 Speaker 1: insurance is like gold, like precious metals, like absolutely would 491 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 1: be gold, not even silver. It would just be physical. 492 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 1: Gold wouldn't be an e t F just physical. And 493 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 1: that you're I'm not trying to get rich, I'm just 494 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 1: trying to maintain the purchasing power. That I already have. 495 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 1: So with I think oil down a barrel, you see 496 00:28:55,240 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 1: companies like Exxon, chevron Um, Shell, Dutch really really just 497 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 1: tanking in price. And again it's not that they don't 498 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 1: have problems. They definitely do, but at a certain point, 499 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: it's all a function of price. And if I can 500 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:14,320 Speaker 1: get a twelve percent dividend, let's say, on an Exxon, 501 00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 1: and I know they've got a lot of debts, and 502 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 1: they've they've got, but I'm not too worried about that 503 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 1: long term. And I also realized that they could stop 504 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 1: paying their dividend over the next one year, so it's 505 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 1: very realistic. But listen, I'm not buying Exxon right here 506 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: to hold for three weeks or six weeks. I'm buying 507 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 1: it to hold for ten years. And if you believe 508 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 1: that cars are still going to run on gas in 509 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 1: call it ten years, then I think you've got to 510 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 1: believe the price of Exxon will most likely increase above 511 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 1: and beyond call it thirty five dollars, and they'll be 512 00:29:55,680 --> 00:30:00,040 Speaker 1: able to pay their dividend, and they'll most like to 513 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 1: be able to increase their dividend after a year, after 514 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 1: a year and a half, after all, of this is 515 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 1: in the rear view mirror. Even if the economy goes 516 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,280 Speaker 1: into a Japan type situation, that still doesn't mean that 517 00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 1: oil is at twenty barrel. And it's not to say 518 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 1: that can't go down to three or ten. But what 519 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 1: I like to advise people and what I try to 520 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: do myself, and psychologically it's actually very hard to do, 521 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: but I try to completely ignore whether the price of 522 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 1: x y z asset is going up or down. I 523 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: just forget about it. And I just asked myself, is 524 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 1: this cheap or is it expensive? And if it's cheap 525 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 1: historically speaking, then I buy it. If it's if it's expensive, 526 00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 1: then if it's in my portfolio, then I go ahead 527 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 1: and sell it. So I think you've got to look 528 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 1: at the oil right now and say, historically it's definitely 529 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 1: very cheap. I'm not saying now is the time to 530 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: go in. But what I'm doing is just starting a 531 00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 1: watch list of stocks or asked that's that I would 532 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 1: like to buy at a specific price, and if they 533 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 1: get down to that price, maybe I pulled the trigger 534 00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 1: a little bit. I think that's something proactive everyone can do. Also, 535 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 1: I think that the average Joe or Jane can always 536 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 1: go out and make sure, make sure, make sure, make 537 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: sure they've got a fixed rate mortgage. And I know 538 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 1: the majority of people in the United States do. But 539 00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 1: if you don't make that change, Yeah, now is the time. 540 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 1: You've got interest rates at at five thousand year lows. 541 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 1: Go ahead and lock them in right now, because over 542 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:41,120 Speaker 1: the next ten twenty thirty years, while you're paying off 543 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 1: this mortgage, the chances are very high that the rate 544 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 1: of inflation exceeds your interest rate. And if the rate 545 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 1: of inflation exceeds your interest rate, that's a transfer of 546 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 1: wealth from the lender to the borrower. In other words, 547 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,320 Speaker 1: that the transfer of wealth from the bank to you. 548 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 1: And that's what you want. That's great because I love 549 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,920 Speaker 1: I love that point. I'm like your thesis on you know, 550 00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: the Fed buy and everything QUB unlimited. The dollar goes 551 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 1: to zero, crashing the system, the house of cards, as 552 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 1: you said, crashes at some point. I mean, do we 553 00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 1: start to look at like, Okay, well, shoot, maybe equities 554 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,240 Speaker 1: won't be a good play. I mean, maybe they run 555 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,720 Speaker 1: out of ammunition. Maybe the diminition returns get to it. 556 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: Maybe it's more about goold, Maybe it's about lifeboats. Alternatives 557 00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 1: outside of the dollar, or you don't think it gets 558 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 1: that bad. No, I do. I don't know that the 559 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 1: dollar goes to zero, and I definitely don't think it 560 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 1: goes to zero short term. I think five years, ten years, 561 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 1: it could go not to zero, but it could lose 562 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 1: call it fifty of its value, could lose of its 563 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 1: value per year. But I think that in what I'm 564 00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: talking about is not only in the United States, but 565 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 1: outside the United States against the Euro or against all 566 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 1: these other currencies. So but I could see I definitely 567 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 1: could see hyper inflation if you define it by the 568 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,720 Speaker 1: dollar losing fifty of its value on an annual basis. 569 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 1: Totally could see that in five ten years. But I 570 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 1: don't see it the next And what do you think 571 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 1: about f D I see it was a pretty interesting 572 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,000 Speaker 1: The head of f D I C put that video 573 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:21,160 Speaker 1: out right and said, everything safe, don't be worried. Um, 574 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 1: this tells you all you need to know. Why why 575 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 1: do they have to come out and do that? Right? 576 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 1: The Let me touch on your earlier point, Uh. I 577 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:33,040 Speaker 1: do think long term you want to have hedges against 578 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,520 Speaker 1: the dollars. So that's why I like physical gold for 579 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:38,680 Speaker 1: a speculation obviously you gotta throw a bitcoin in there. 580 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 1: I think the asymmetry is definitely what you want. A 581 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: lot of people get on me because they like to 582 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 1: be an either or type person. Either your gung ho 583 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:50,840 Speaker 1: about gold and you think it should be a hundred 584 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 1: percent of your portfolio, or your super gung ho about 585 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:55,760 Speaker 1: bitcoin and crypto and you think that should be a 586 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 1: hundred percent of your portola. I really don't understand that. 587 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 1: I don't understand the arguments going back and forth between 588 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 1: the two camps because to me, we're all on the 589 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,520 Speaker 1: same team and they're not even competing asset classes. In 590 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,720 Speaker 1: my book, they're totally They're not even apples and oranges. 591 00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,280 Speaker 1: I always say they're like apples, or they're like oranges 592 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,719 Speaker 1: and and Ford pickup trucks. That why would you not 593 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:21,480 Speaker 1: have both? But one is insurance and one is a speculation. 594 00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:25,439 Speaker 1: So I wanted to touch on that. What was lost 595 00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:27,760 Speaker 1: to check your other I appreciate that that, and actually 596 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 1: I was just I I talk about both. I've been 597 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,000 Speaker 1: a bitcoin guy, I am. I talk about gold, and 598 00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:35,680 Speaker 1: I constantly get hit with that. But look, our goal, 599 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,799 Speaker 1: our job is not to pick the one asset. Our 600 00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:43,960 Speaker 1: goal is to have an allocation and we we we 601 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,439 Speaker 1: we do it based off of risk and reward, and 602 00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 1: I like both. I think there's for both and and 603 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,279 Speaker 1: for a lot of the same reasons, but also for 604 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:56,200 Speaker 1: different reasons. Absolutely, yeah, you got. You gotta own different 605 00:34:56,239 --> 00:35:00,000 Speaker 1: asset classes for different reasons and different objectives within your portfolio. 606 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:04,239 Speaker 1: It of a mathematical probability of you being ahead of 607 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 1: the game in the long run. And I don't want 608 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,480 Speaker 1: to get into the boring nerdy stuff. Some of my 609 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 1: videos I go onto binomial calculators and the Kelly criterion 610 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,320 Speaker 1: because before I got into entrepreneurship, way back in college, 611 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 1: I counted cards at blackjack, So it always put me 612 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 1: in that mindset of probabilities and money management. And so 613 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:27,480 Speaker 1: then we're watching the FED go into queiy infinity, a 614 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 1: lot of you know, potential inflation deflation to watch for. 615 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,120 Speaker 1: So as investors, we want to kind of keep an 616 00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,400 Speaker 1: eye on that. Try to hedge against the dollar inflation 617 00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,839 Speaker 1: at some point through gold, maybe through bitcoin um and 618 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,759 Speaker 1: then keep an eye on the world dominator stocks I 619 00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 1: like to call them, right the value stocks, and maybe 620 00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,879 Speaker 1: look for good entry points at some point because you 621 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,440 Speaker 1: think even though the Fed's gonna go full full crazy 622 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 1: Bazuoka style. Um, those stocks are gonna survive that, They're 623 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 1: gonna prop them up as long as they need to. Yeah, 624 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,840 Speaker 1: I think they're going to try. So where's your entry point? 625 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,400 Speaker 1: I'd go back to just asking the question, is it 626 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,760 Speaker 1: cheap or is it expensive? Like a lot of people 627 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 1: are trying to call a bottom right now, it's like 628 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,800 Speaker 1: it's the bottom by the dip, by the dip. Well, 629 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 1: I don't do that because I look at the market 630 00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,480 Speaker 1: cap to GDP you want to call it the buffet indicator, 631 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,759 Speaker 1: and or I look at a cape ratio and as 632 00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:29,759 Speaker 1: even though we've come down, um call it or so 633 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:34,880 Speaker 1: from the highs, it doesn't mean the market's cheap, but 634 00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:39,759 Speaker 1: the market is still extremely extremely overvalued. Of course their 635 00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,319 Speaker 1: pockets of opportunity, that's true, But as a whole, the 636 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:47,800 Speaker 1: SMP is still up in the stratosphere. So I wouldn't 637 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,920 Speaker 1: be a buyer of the entire market until the cape 638 00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:55,200 Speaker 1: ratio at least comes down below fifteen, and i'd like 639 00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,040 Speaker 1: it even below ten. So that's kind of what I'm 640 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,719 Speaker 1: looking at as far as you're blue chips for an 641 00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:06,399 Speaker 1: entry point. But I'd also encourage people to look outside 642 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 1: the United States, because there's stocks in other markets that 643 00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:16,000 Speaker 1: are down way below where they were even in two 644 00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,920 Speaker 1: thousand nine, and a lot of these stocks are great 645 00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:22,439 Speaker 1: dividend payers that would be considered blue chips in that 646 00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,880 Speaker 1: other country. Of course, you gotta worry about the exchange 647 00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,120 Speaker 1: risk if your expenses are denominated in dollars. But I 648 00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:33,360 Speaker 1: think that people should maybe just start doing some research 649 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,880 Speaker 1: to see what opportunities exist, not only in the United States, 650 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:41,320 Speaker 1: but potentially outside of the United States as well. Yeah. Great, 651 00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 1: great advice. I like that. What about one last question? 652 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,600 Speaker 1: What do you what do you think about the dowt 653 00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:50,240 Speaker 1: A gold ratio? Do you do you look at that? Yeah, 654 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:55,560 Speaker 1: I've seen that. I know it's um I think it's 655 00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,319 Speaker 1: a lot like the silver to gold ratio, and that 656 00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,680 Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not good enough to know if 657 00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,680 Speaker 1: that's an indicator or if it's just something that's kind 658 00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,879 Speaker 1: of interesting to look at. So I try to kind 659 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,719 Speaker 1: of stay in my lane, if you will, and just 660 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,960 Speaker 1: ask myself is cheaper? Is silver cheap compared to silver? 661 00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,600 Speaker 1: And not necessarily is silver cheap compared to gold? I didn't. 662 00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,480 Speaker 1: I did a video titled silver is not what you 663 00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:24,680 Speaker 1: think it is. And I basically said, I don't believe 664 00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,280 Speaker 1: in the gold to silver ratio. Silver isn't needed anymore, 665 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,680 Speaker 1: and that that ratio is broken a long time ago. Um, 666 00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,960 Speaker 1: the doubt of gold ratio. I still believe in that. 667 00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,799 Speaker 1: So it's something that I keep an eye on. But yeah, 668 00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:39,279 Speaker 1: I know I've was regarding the silver to gold. I 669 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:42,440 Speaker 1: interviewed Rick Rule the other day and he's in your camp. 670 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,239 Speaker 1: He he doesn't. He thinks it's kind of cool to 671 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:48,399 Speaker 1: look at, but it's not really an indicator. And uh, 672 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,520 Speaker 1: I know I interviewed Shift the other day and uh 673 00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 1: and Lynette Zang, and they're under the belief system that 674 00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:57,680 Speaker 1: and they're old school. They've been doing us a long 675 00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,440 Speaker 1: time and they believe there's going to be one to 676 00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:04,400 Speaker 1: one ratio again. Whether the whether that means the dows 677 00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:07,640 Speaker 1: at twenty thousand and an ounce of gold is twenty 678 00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:11,319 Speaker 1: thousand or five, it doesn't matter that. They just think 679 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,560 Speaker 1: that at some point in time in the next couple 680 00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:15,560 Speaker 1: of years, we're going to be at a one to one. 681 00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 1: If we have time for one more question, yeah, Um, 682 00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,080 Speaker 1: so you did a video talking about Jim Rickards calling 683 00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,759 Speaker 1: the revaluation to gold. I kind of copied off of 684 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,480 Speaker 1: your video about that as well. Um, and so I'm 685 00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,759 Speaker 1: curious about that. I mean, if if you know the 686 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,880 Speaker 1: unlimited bazooka cannons and the destruction of the dollar and 687 00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,799 Speaker 1: all the current I mean, we already see the you know, 688 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:42,840 Speaker 1: I m F or the b I s calling for 689 00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,920 Speaker 1: digital currencies with their SDRs, which maybe like Chinese to 690 00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,919 Speaker 1: people listening, But um, I'm curious based off that video. 691 00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,600 Speaker 1: I mean, if this QUI infinity and diminishing returns and 692 00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:57,040 Speaker 1: it all fails, no confidence left in currencies, The argument 693 00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,120 Speaker 1: is the only way to restore confidences to go back 694 00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:02,439 Speaker 1: to some gold stand or whether that's one percent or um. 695 00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 1: Do you think there's a good probability of that happening, 696 00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,759 Speaker 1: a very low probability or no chance or where do 697 00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:12,440 Speaker 1: you say? I think there's a very good probability. That 698 00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,799 Speaker 1: will have to have a currency, and I have no 699 00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,520 Speaker 1: idea what currency it will be. I don't know if 700 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,040 Speaker 1: it will be digital. I would assume it would be digital. 701 00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,759 Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a digital SDR or a 702 00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:27,960 Speaker 1: digital dollar or libra who knows something like that, but 703 00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,359 Speaker 1: or maybe a bitcoin, maybe hopefully. I mean that would 704 00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:35,160 Speaker 1: be awesome. From a philosophical standpoint, There's nothing more that 705 00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,640 Speaker 1: I'd like to see than to have a decentralized currency 706 00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:44,439 Speaker 1: is as what we use in the world to transact. 707 00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,480 Speaker 1: But I I don't think the governments would be too 708 00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,480 Speaker 1: uh too keen on that, to say the least. Why 709 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,359 Speaker 1: would they why would they ever why would they ever 710 00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,799 Speaker 1: vote to tie their hands behind their back? Right, Yeah, 711 00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:59,040 Speaker 1: exactly exactly, And to have a government backed digital currency, 712 00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,080 Speaker 1: it gives them so much control. I don't think most 713 00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:07,319 Speaker 1: people understand. I don't think they've pulled back the layer 714 00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:09,600 Speaker 1: of the onion because I hear a lot of people 715 00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:11,880 Speaker 1: on Twitter or even in the comments of my videos 716 00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,840 Speaker 1: they say, wow, the dollar, are it already is a 717 00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,400 Speaker 1: digital currency? I mean, I don't really use paper money. 718 00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:20,239 Speaker 1: I just use electronic digits on my bank account and 719 00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:22,319 Speaker 1: I use an a t M card. And what they're 720 00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:25,560 Speaker 1: not understanding is if we had a true and you 721 00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,080 Speaker 1: can correct me if I'm wrong, but if we had 722 00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:33,240 Speaker 1: a true digital currency the way where they've each token 723 00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,560 Speaker 1: let's call it, has a serial number, and they track 724 00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:40,840 Speaker 1: that it goes to someone's electronic wallet, then the FED 725 00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:45,960 Speaker 1: or the government could control not only the supply, but 726 00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:49,160 Speaker 1: they could control the demand, and most people don't realize that. 727 00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:53,200 Speaker 1: As an example, they could say, Okay, here's your worth 728 00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,879 Speaker 1: of mm T everything for this month, but you've got 729 00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,480 Speaker 1: to spend it in the next forty eight hours this 730 00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:03,880 Speaker 1: program or yeah, yeah, exactly, it's programmable, its specific, you 731 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:05,960 Speaker 1: have to spend in this timeframe. You can only use 732 00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,000 Speaker 1: it for these certain things, like it can be stopped, 733 00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:11,880 Speaker 1: sees man, you know whatever. So for sure that's what 734 00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,640 Speaker 1: they'd want um And I think that's kind of where 735 00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,040 Speaker 1: it goes, is like a digital SDR most likely, but 736 00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,440 Speaker 1: I would think it maybe has to have some goal backing. 737 00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:22,000 Speaker 1: Maybe it's yeah, yeah, that's where I was going with that. 738 00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,319 Speaker 1: For sure. It's a great point. I think that eventually 739 00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:29,239 Speaker 1: the Fiat system, the Fiat currency system that we've been 740 00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:33,080 Speaker 1: trying out since nineteen seventy one is kind of going 741 00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,960 Speaker 1: back to Brenton Woods. That's going to collapse, and I 742 00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:40,319 Speaker 1: think you're gonna have a total loss of confidence, and 743 00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:42,880 Speaker 1: not only the dollar or the end the Euro, you 744 00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,919 Speaker 1: name it. I don't think that's tomorrow, but I think 745 00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:49,440 Speaker 1: ten years, fifteen years down the road, that's where we're 746 00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:53,440 Speaker 1: going to be. And to your point, any currency is 747 00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:57,920 Speaker 1: all about confidence, Any economy really is all about confidence. 748 00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:01,760 Speaker 1: So to instill the confidence, I don't think the government 749 00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,360 Speaker 1: or the I m F or whomever is issuing this 750 00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,400 Speaker 1: currency is going to have a choice but to back 751 00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:12,960 Speaker 1: it with something that people have confidence in. And again 752 00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,040 Speaker 1: going back to Twitter and in my comments, a lot 753 00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,200 Speaker 1: of people say, oh, the government would never back it 754 00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:20,359 Speaker 1: with gold. That's crazy, that ties their hand. But they're 755 00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:24,200 Speaker 1: implying that the government has a choice. I don't know 756 00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:28,240 Speaker 1: that they would have a choice now whether the digital 757 00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:35,400 Speaker 1: SDR or the digital dollar is backed by one who knows. 758 00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,560 Speaker 1: But and then, of course I think what will happen. 759 00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,000 Speaker 1: So in the short term, I think you all have 760 00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,520 Speaker 1: this digital fiat that gives them total control. I think 761 00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,000 Speaker 1: that blows up. They have to have something that's backed 762 00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:50,919 Speaker 1: by gold. But I only think that last maybe ten 763 00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:55,920 Speaker 1: twenty years, where everyone forgets what happened with the disaster 764 00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:59,399 Speaker 1: of fiat currency and you have all these politicians or 765 00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,400 Speaker 1: economists start claiming that, oh yeah, this this is our problem. 766 00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:06,719 Speaker 1: Is this stupid gold standard. We've got to get off 767 00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,640 Speaker 1: this gold standard. We could only have the ability and 768 00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,680 Speaker 1: the control over the amount of currency in the system. 769 00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,880 Speaker 1: Then we could just solve all the problems and we 770 00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:18,840 Speaker 1: could just print money, and everyone's going to forget about 771 00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:22,640 Speaker 1: what happened ten fifteen years ago, just like everyone now 772 00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,880 Speaker 1: or thirty days ago forgot what happened in the GFC. 773 00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:30,600 Speaker 1: They totally forgot. Oh yeah, that was the market can 774 00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:35,120 Speaker 1: never go down. You hear all these things, The narrative 775 00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:38,799 Speaker 1: is exact or was exactly like it was back in 776 00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:42,000 Speaker 1: two thousand eight, two thousand and seven. It's it's shocking 777 00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:46,920 Speaker 1: that the recency bias of the notly the mainstream media, 778 00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,279 Speaker 1: but the population at large, and that that they just 779 00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:55,120 Speaker 1: have this kind of like a selective amnesia where if 780 00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:59,360 Speaker 1: if it's it's a cognitive dissonance type of rationalizing, where 781 00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,319 Speaker 1: if it makes them feel good about their four oh 782 00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:04,839 Speaker 1: one k or whatever they have invested in the market, 783 00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:06,360 Speaker 1: if that's going to give them more purchasing car in 784 00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:10,160 Speaker 1: the future, then they just kind of tend to forget 785 00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,280 Speaker 1: things that are inconvenient, or make up things or cherry 786 00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:17,120 Speaker 1: picked data points to make it easier to sleep at night, 787 00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,800 Speaker 1: knowing that the stock market always goes up, right, the 788 00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,040 Speaker 1: dollar is always going to be the world reserve currency. 789 00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:28,560 Speaker 1: Well I don't think so, right, man, So much more 790 00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:30,279 Speaker 1: to talk about. I'd love to get into some more 791 00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:32,359 Speaker 1: of like the bailouts and things like that. So many 792 00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:34,319 Speaker 1: different angles we could go, but I know we're out 793 00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,759 Speaker 1: of time, so so we'll go ahead and cut it off. 794 00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,400 Speaker 1: But I appreciate you given the time it was. It 795 00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:43,880 Speaker 1: was a great conversation, and uh, thank you. Yeah for sure, 796 00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:49,000 Speaker 1: let's I love the conversation. Let's definitely do it again soon. Okay. Thanks. Hey, 797 00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,960 Speaker 1: if you like this episode of the Market Disruptors podcast, 798 00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,560 Speaker 1: please help us take this to the top of the 799 00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,479 Speaker 1: podcast charts. Just please do me a favor and rate, 800 00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,880 Speaker 1: review and subscribe. Taking fifteen seconds to just leave a 801 00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:03,439 Speaker 1: quick review goes a long way in helping us reach 802 00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:07,040 Speaker 1: more people and disrupt more markets. I really appreciate you listening, 803 00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:09,400 Speaker 1: and I'll see you next time on the Market Instructors 804 00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:09,880 Speaker 1: podcast