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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game jewish prow read

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Speaker 1: enough they're up running a game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Tim mid sixteen, just glorious.

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Speaker 3: Textacution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort

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Speaker 3: four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that shop with mind of buddy, and

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Speaker 4: that's why you see you.

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Speaker 1: As beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 4: Most dangerous a mount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody piction them.

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Speaker 5: Sh shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The love is left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 1: drilled bibused.

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Speaker 4: How on earth did that happened?

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Speaker 6: Helloi one and welcome back to Wonderful at the Soccer

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Speaker 6: Betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebuff.

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Speaker 6: Joining me just a mom will be BJ Cunningham and

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Speaker 6: Anthony Dubundo. But before I bring in those two scholarly gentlemen,

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Speaker 6: a reminder. Wonder Goal is present proudly presented by Bet

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Speaker 6: and get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. You must

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Speaker 6: be twenty one or older. The offer is available in Colorado,

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Speaker 6: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia. In the US gambling problem

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Speaker 6: please call or text one eight hundred gambler and as always,

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Speaker 6: gamble responsibly. Bja and Anthony, let's get this thing started.

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Speaker 6: We are firmly in the deep end of the pool

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Speaker 6: of this Premier League season and we'll start with one

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Speaker 6: of the title contenders, Arsenal Scrappy Little Arsenal BJ back scrappy,

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Speaker 6: scrappy little r SO back. They'll travel to the northeast

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Speaker 6: to take on Newcastle plus one forty five. Favorites are

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Speaker 6: the Magpies Arsenal plus one sixty two very slight road underdogs.

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Speaker 6: Essentially pick him on the three way line. The draw

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Speaker 6: is plus two sixty. I think that this game it's

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Speaker 6: for the casuals. I don't really see much of a

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Speaker 6: betting angle here, Anthony does, so before we dive into

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Speaker 6: your neuroses, BJ, we'll start with Antony find out what

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Speaker 6: he sees in terms of the line here.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I say, continually flawed Arsenal defense going on

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Speaker 3: the road against an attack that's been very dynamic since

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Speaker 3: adding East Sac and an attack that has been excellent

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Speaker 3: at home a group that is pressed with a ton

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Speaker 3: of energy and caused problems for back lines that struggle

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Speaker 3: with ball progression. And this Arsenal group without Salibistill is

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Speaker 3: just not nearly as good. And you watched, you know,

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Speaker 3: the Chelsea match, which they played well, deserved to win,

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Speaker 3: but a better attacking team would have scored two or

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Speaker 3: three goals in that match. Chelsea had numerous odd man

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Speaker 3: opportunities that didn't quite come off because they're really disjointed

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Speaker 3: and not connected as an attack, and they have their issues,

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Speaker 3: but it felt like Arsenal was very vulnerable whenever they

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Speaker 3: lost possession.

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Speaker 4: And that's where Newcastle's at their best. And this is

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Speaker 4: not that different from what the Liverpool spot was a

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Speaker 4: few weeks ago. I mean, Newcastle Liverpool are similarly rated teams.

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Speaker 3: For me, ended up betting Liverpool in that match, and

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Speaker 3: so Newcastle has basically I pick them at home. Here

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Speaker 3: all the pressure on Arsenal plays against them, I think

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Speaker 3: in this spot. So I'm going to take Newcastle at home,

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Speaker 3: pick them this one fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and listen, if I was a neutral,

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Speaker 2: I would probably agree with Anthony. You know, I do

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Speaker 2: have Newcastle projected around plus one twenty five. So if

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Speaker 2: you are a neutral, then yes, I do believe there

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Speaker 2: is some value on Newcastle here and the Arsenal defense,

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Speaker 2: you know, Keywar was better than Rob Holding, And if

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Speaker 2: you're wondering why Arsenal hasn't been playing him, is because

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Speaker 2: he's also left foot, which is a very awkward situation

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Speaker 2: for them to play two left footed center backs, especially

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Speaker 2: in build up play. So you know, he's obviously a

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Speaker 2: better ball up grester than Rob Holding is, so that

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Speaker 2: makes Arsenal's defense a little bit better. But what I

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Speaker 2: will say is that Arsenal, I understand it was with Saliba,

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Speaker 2: but they had you know, a pretty decent time building

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Speaker 2: up against Newcastle in the previous meeting, and I understand

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Speaker 2: that Newcastle was good in transition, but Arsenal tilt the

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Speaker 2: field on them. They controlled sixty six percent possession. Newcastle

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Speaker 2: only had a pass per defensive action of around ten,

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Speaker 2: which you know for the season they're well under that.

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Speaker 2: So this really just comes down to, and something we've

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Speaker 2: been talking about with Newcastle a lot is if you

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Speaker 2: want to beat them and basically rip them apart, you

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Speaker 2: got to play through their pressure and obviously without Saliba.

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Speaker 2: That's troublesome for Arsenal, but Sinshinko and Shaka both healthy

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Speaker 2: helps their build up plays and Schenko's ability to invert

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Speaker 2: in the middle of the pitch. That's how Arsenal's going

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Speaker 2: to win this match. They got to play through Newcastle's

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Speaker 2: pressure because as we've seen time and time again, Newcastle

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Speaker 2: makes the match very, very transitional. They completely, like Anthony said,

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Speaker 2: they're just an unbelievable offense. Would they create over four

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Speaker 2: expected goals against Southampton this past weekend, so three point

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Speaker 2: nine against Manchester United who had major, big time struggles

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Speaker 2: building out the back against them. But Arsenal does have

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Speaker 2: the personnel, I understand that obviously. But but everybody else

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Speaker 2: on the pitch is able to play through that pressure.

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Speaker 2: So if they're able to do that, they'll be able

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Speaker 2: to put the ball on the back of the net,

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Speaker 2: hopefully in some transitional opportunities. But yeah, if I was neutral, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I would say there's value on Newcastle and I would

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Speaker 2: probably play them, But I don't bet against my team

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Speaker 2: in a title race.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think it's interesting when you look at just like

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Speaker 3: pure underlying straight x G per ninety, like these two

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Speaker 3: teams are pretty comparable for the season. Arsenal plays a

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Speaker 3: style that's been more aggressive and more committing numbers forward

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Speaker 3: when in tide game states, and so you're seeing that

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Speaker 3: Arsenal has more wins and Newcastle has settled for some

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Speaker 3: draws against lesser competition. That's the reason for the difference

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Speaker 3: in their actual point totals. And one team has run

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Speaker 3: really well finishing the other team's run.

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Speaker 4: About around their x G.

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Speaker 3: So like relatively speaking, though in terms of team total

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Speaker 3: team strength, there's not a huge gap here. The Arsenal

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Speaker 3: is the better team for my numbers, but not that

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Speaker 3: much better to the point where they should be. I

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Speaker 3: pick them on the road against a Newcastle team that's

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Speaker 3: been dynamite at home.

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Speaker 2: So one more thing I'll say too is that if

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Speaker 2: you look through Newcastle schedule recently, they haven't really played

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Speaker 2: teams that can build out through pressure and it's a

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Speaker 2: lot of teams that play very direct and transitionally. You

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Speaker 2: know the Everton's Tottenhams, Brentford's West Hams of the world,

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Speaker 2: the two teams that they've struggled with and lost to,

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Speaker 2: you know, aston Villa. You know they've had their issues

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Speaker 2: through build up play, but they build build up through

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Speaker 2: the middle of the pitch very very well against Newcastle

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Speaker 2: in that match, and then of course Manchester City was

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Speaker 2: the best build up team in the world, was able

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Speaker 2: to play through them and create you know, one point

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Speaker 2: three expected goals and counterpress them very well. So that's

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Speaker 2: what Arsenal's got to do. I'm playing and simple. They

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Speaker 2: just got to be able to play through pressure.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so that pressure is going to be two pold

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Speaker 6: on Arsenal on the pitch and off the pitch as

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Speaker 6: they try to stay with City.

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Speaker 5: Full disclosure.

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Speaker 6: We are recording this during man City's match on Wednesday

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Speaker 6: afternoon against west Ham. City is up one nothing right now,

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Speaker 6: so in all likelihood they will be a point ahead

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Speaker 6: of Arsenal with a game in hand heading into the weekend,

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Speaker 6: and City takes on leads and that's where we'll go next.

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Speaker 6: City hosts leads as a minus six hundred favorite. City

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Speaker 6: hosts Sam Allardice's leads as a minus six hundred favorite.

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Speaker 6: Sam Allardice, who says he's just as good as the

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Speaker 6: best managers in the world, whether that be Guardiola, Mikael Arteta,

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Speaker 6: klop Sewan Ditsche.

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Speaker 5: I'm sure he said in.

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Speaker 6: There, and you know what, I'll let's Big Sam have

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Speaker 6: it at his particular skill set.

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Speaker 5: He might be right.

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Speaker 6: I could see his logic. Well, well, everyone else makes

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Speaker 6: fun of him. I can see exactly what he means,

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Speaker 6: Big Sam. Yeah, like I said, leads is sixteen to

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Speaker 6: one on the three way line in the draws plus

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Speaker 6: six fifty the odds from bet three six five. Holy moly,

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Speaker 6: Mark Marcelo Bielsa to Jesse Marsh to Hobby Garcia to

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Speaker 6: Sam Allardyce.

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Speaker 1: With this squad, they they they smashed the glass around

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Speaker 1: the panic button and they smashed it hard because this

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Speaker 1: is your last resort.

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Speaker 5: Here, so you gotta do it.

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Speaker 6: Though, I don't think it's a you know, like if

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Speaker 6: if you're to if you're want going one million percent

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Speaker 6: all in on, not not going down, just do it

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Speaker 6: and pay the man what whatever the six million that

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Speaker 6: that he's oh, if he's if he keeps him up.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 6: I do think it kind of adds an interesting wrinkle here.

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Speaker 6: Who on earth knows how this match is gonna look like?

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Speaker 6: These these these guys have been playing a very different

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Speaker 6: style for the better part of what five years now,

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Speaker 6: when you consider they were under Bielsa during their championship ascendancy,

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Speaker 6: then the first year plus in the Premier League. Then

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Speaker 6: it was marsh who was like just a worst version

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Speaker 6: of Bielsa, and then they've kind of slowly migrated towards

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Speaker 6: where we are now. I mean, I'm expecting an eighty

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Speaker 6: eight percent possession number something from City. I might just

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Speaker 6: have a little bit of a sprinkle on the Leeds

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Speaker 6: money line as almost an emotional hedge because it ever dident.

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Speaker 5: But lord, what do you think you're bj.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm kind of on where you are too.

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Speaker 2: It's like you're playing a certain style. It clearly Gracia

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Speaker 2: comes in and it clearly didn't work. You know, the

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Speaker 2: the four to four to two out of possession compact

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Speaker 2: defense was not good for Leeds. It's the similar store

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Speaker 2: with them. It's once the goal goes in the back

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Speaker 2: of the net, all hell breaks loose. They don't have

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Speaker 2: Tyler Adams to be that ball stopper in the middle

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Speaker 2: of the pitch. So now Big Sam comes in, who

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Speaker 2: is very similar to that of Roy Hodge and it's

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Speaker 2: four four to two, very compact defense, and now they're

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Speaker 2: going to have to try to eat Manchester City out

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Speaker 2: of the back of the net. I mean Alardce is

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Speaker 2: West Brom. That's you know, the last time he managed

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Speaker 2: a team was West Brom. I mean they allowed fifty

199
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Speaker 2: expected goals in his twenty six matches in charge, and

200
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Speaker 2: that was a team that was actually had a team

201
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Speaker 2: that was set up to play this type of defensive

202
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Speaker 2: structure and they still struggle with that as well. So

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Speaker 2: I mean this is a this is a pass for me.

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Speaker 2: I mean, maybe you'll take a look at under three

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Speaker 2: and a half, you know, which is now at even money.

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Speaker 2: If that goes into plus one ten plus one twenty rage,

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Speaker 2: I might have to have a sprinkle at that. But

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Speaker 2: I mean this is seemingly just a complete panic move

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Speaker 2: from from Leeds, and I mean I get it, like

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Speaker 2: you got to stay up and then you'll you'll readin

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Speaker 2: he'll change things out in the offseason, but doesn't a

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Speaker 2: lot of things are getting anying better anytime soon, and

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Speaker 2: they're basically just hoping for some new manager bounce to

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Speaker 2: to get them through the end of the season. But

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Speaker 2: it's a pass for me. I want to see what

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Speaker 2: it happens with with Big Sam and Leads. I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure what's going to happen, but it sure is fascinating

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Speaker 2: because what's that that's now two or three reintern managers

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Speaker 2: fired so far. I guess you don't know if you

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Speaker 2: count Nathan Jones as an intern manager, but definitely Stealini,

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Speaker 2: now Gracia, maybe Frank Lampard soon. It's just it's insane

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Speaker 2: the amount of manager turnover we had the season.

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Speaker 5: Uh yeah, it's it's been banana land.

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Speaker 6: And as I tried to tell Anthony a few months

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Speaker 6: ago that these these people are not rational actors who

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Speaker 6: run these clubs, so you never know what you're gonna get.

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Speaker 6: And Sam Allardyce managing leads, I don't think any of

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Speaker 6: us would have got there in the pre preseason preview

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Speaker 6: that we did.

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Speaker 5: Anthony, you are a big.

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Speaker 6: Sam guy, you always have been, you always will be,

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Speaker 6: and you're going back to the well here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's not pretty, but I think what Alardyce

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Speaker 3: said was funny, but I don't think it's all that wrong.

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Speaker 3: And if you think that the manager's job is to

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Speaker 3: have a style of play and then to bring in

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Speaker 3: a bunch of players or come into a team and

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Speaker 3: then get those players to play your style, you can

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Speaker 3: criticize the style. It is horrendous. It is quite terrible,

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Speaker 3: but it could be effective. It's not quite what Gracia

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Speaker 3: was doing. I think it will be even more defensive,

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Speaker 3: It'll be better drilled. The question is whether or not

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Speaker 3: they have the talent execute it. I don't know, that's

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Speaker 3: the biggest question mark. With four matches to go shake

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Speaker 3: up somebody from outside the club coming in. I'm willing

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Speaker 3: to for one match ride it on this inflated number.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna split my uat between plus one first

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Speaker 3: half and plus two and a half full game. But

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Speaker 3: both numbers just seem to touch high to me, and

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Speaker 3: so City. You know, I know they're going to probably

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Speaker 3: win this match, but with Champions League look ahead as well,

253
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Speaker 3: there's the potential that, you know, to brun arrests a

254
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Speaker 3: half or Holland comes off if they're up a goal.

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Speaker 4: That kind of thing.

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Speaker 3: To focus on the real Madrid match, which is coming

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Speaker 3: up in four days, just after the fact, three days.

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Speaker 6: That might be maybe that'll be Allardice's his next stop.

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Speaker 6: If Ancelotti does leave, he'll be in the dugout at

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Speaker 6: the burn About.

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Speaker 5: He would fit in La Liga. Yeah, all right, on

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Speaker 5: to Bournemouth. And Chelsea. Now Chelsea, Man, they're trending up.

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Speaker 6: I saw that ESPNFC like tweeted out a scenario where

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Speaker 6: how Chelsea could get right relegated this season, and I

265
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Speaker 6: was just wondering if that graphic, which of course is

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Speaker 6: absurd it would require one of you know, basically a

267
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Speaker 6: million to one parlay, but if it did cause some

268
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Speaker 6: people to go embed it just because they saw it,

269
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Speaker 6: but nonetheless, twelfth place Chelsea, thirteenth place Bourne Myuth, both

270
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Speaker 6: on thirty nine points.

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Speaker 5: We'll meet Bourne.

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Speaker 6: Myth plus two to fifty at home, Chelsea plus one

273
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Speaker 6: oh five on the road to tra plus two forty

274
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Speaker 6: A man, this is an easy pass for me. I

275
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Speaker 6: just job done for Bournemouth. Chelsea is a goddamn disaster,

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Speaker 6: so I'm just gonna leave it alone.

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Speaker 5: Beaj.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm more curious to see where this number closes at,

279
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Speaker 2: because we've already opened Chelsea at minus one fifty. Then

280
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Speaker 2: it came down to minus one fifteen before the Arsenal match.

281
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Speaker 2: Now it's down to plus one fifteen. Do they close

282
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Speaker 2: as a pick em against Bournemouth. I don't know. That

283
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,600
Speaker 2: would be crazy. I mean, in some sense it's crazy,

284
00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,040
Speaker 2: but in the other sense, and I think this is

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00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,200
Speaker 2: something you know at some point these players have to

286
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,520
Speaker 2: have like they like Anthony said they were they were

287
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,320
Speaker 2: okay against Arsenal, like it's very disjointed, Like there's clearly

288
00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:37,920
Speaker 2: no plan with Frank Lampard and charge. Like I've said

289
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Speaker 2: this before, but under Grand Potter, Chelsea was number one

290
00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:42,080
Speaker 2: in the Premier League and passa per defensive action, they

291
00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,880
Speaker 2: were an outstanding counter pressing team. They just couldn't fin

292
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Speaker 2: finish any of those chances they had in transition. Well,

293
00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 2: now Lampard has done a different pressing structure out of

294
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:51,960
Speaker 2: a four to five to one out of possession which

295
00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:55,240
Speaker 2: is very become very disjointed and very passive, and now

296
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,240
Speaker 2: they're passive. Per defensive action is sitting around twelve. So

297
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,320
Speaker 2: they've lost one thing that they've been holding onto that's

298
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,960
Speaker 2: made them really good in transition. Now they have to

299
00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,120
Speaker 2: come and break down a Bournemouth low block and also

300
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 2: defend in transition and try to stop Bournemouth from creating

301
00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:12,880
Speaker 2: these one or two huge chances. And I'm not sure

302
00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:16,360
Speaker 2: if they're going to be able to do that. But

303
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,600
Speaker 2: if you're somebody just coming into this now, like I

304
00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,360
Speaker 2: have Chelsea protected at plus one fifteen. I don't think

305
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,800
Speaker 2: there's any value in the number as it currently stands.

306
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:28,880
Speaker 2: I have already bet Bornemuth plus a half at even money,

307
00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,360
Speaker 2: you know, way before this. But if I mean, if

308
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 2: Chelsea's a pick them there, like I might have to

309
00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:37,720
Speaker 2: stare at it for a second and really evaluate if

310
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,280
Speaker 2: I maybe will play Chelsea there. But I'm just interested

311
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,480
Speaker 2: to see where this closes and how bad this can

312
00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:45,520
Speaker 2: truly yet for Chelsea.

313
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Speaker 5: Anything here, Anthony, before we.

314
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,480
Speaker 4: It's that thing they fired Graham Potter, right.

315
00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:55,520
Speaker 2: Right, Harry, Like again, like Michael said, Anthony, these are

316
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:57,640
Speaker 2: not saying human beings.

317
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,280
Speaker 4: It's sad, you know. Look, I mean you can't bet

318
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:01,800
Speaker 4: Bornemouth here.

319
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:03,320
Speaker 3: I mean you could if you want to bet Bournemouth,

320
00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 3: take them on the money line, right line. Yeah, that's

321
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 3: my point though, like look for alternates because like plus

322
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:11,720
Speaker 3: a half here is not interesting to me.

323
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:13,600
Speaker 4: Like you're laying juice on it now and it's like.

324
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,640
Speaker 3: Okay, no, if Chelsea really has quit, the floor is

325
00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,200
Speaker 3: the basement, so we don't know where the floor is

326
00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,360
Speaker 3: and they could continue to get worse. You're buying Bournemouth

327
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 3: at the absolute peak. You're buying Chelsea at the absolute

328
00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:26,920
Speaker 3: you're selling Chelsea at.

329
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,120
Speaker 4: The absolute floor. So I can't recommend a bet on Bournemouth.

330
00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,600
Speaker 3: But again, like I said, you know plus what is

331
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 3: it plus three hundred out there now on Bournemouth. We

332
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,640
Speaker 3: said last week we're gonna moneyline fade Chelsea every week

333
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,200
Speaker 3: and see how it goes. Brentford won Arsenal one. Chelsea

334
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 3: still has Forest at home, might be an interesting number there.

335
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Speaker 5: We'll see, we're gonna need old Frank.

336
00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 4: We're not gonna get any value anymore.

337
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 5: For former club out there that way.

338
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:50,640
Speaker 2: Gosh.

339
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:52,200
Speaker 1: And then do you see they close.

340
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,720
Speaker 3: With oh my goodness, they host Newcastle, they go to City,

341
00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:59,760
Speaker 3: they go to United, so they will this is their

342
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 3: last two chances really yeah for a win, although I

343
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,360
Speaker 3: mean the last day that probably will not.

344
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:06,400
Speaker 4: Mean anything to either team.

345
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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean I have nothing here, no interest

346
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:10,960
Speaker 3: in betting the match, can't bet the number.

347
00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:17,440
Speaker 6: What about any interest in your Tottenham Hotspur as a

348
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,800
Speaker 6: minus one twenty five favorite hosting Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace

349
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,159
Speaker 6: plus plus three twenty the draw is plus two eighty

350
00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:30,639
Speaker 6: Palace on the beach. Congratulations to Roy uh and the

351
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,680
Speaker 6: Eagles for flirting with the fringe of the relegation zone,

352
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 6: only to get out of that potential disaster pretty quickly.

353
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:41,560
Speaker 6: I would say it would be pallace or nothing for me.

354
00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,360
Speaker 6: I know'll bja you agree, I disagree, so I'll clip

355
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:44,679
Speaker 6: it to you.

356
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Speaker 5: I just I don't. I don't want to. I don't

357
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:48,119
Speaker 5: want to bit spry.

358
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,120
Speaker 6: I get I think if, like, if Chelsea isn't going

359
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 6: through what they're going through, uh, well we'd be talking

360
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 6: a lot more about what Spurs is doing. With no

361
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 6: wins and a draw against United and their last four matches,

362
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,400
Speaker 6: which includes a three goal loss to three to two

363
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,399
Speaker 6: lost at Bourne, myth, giving up six to Newcastle and

364
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 6: then four to to Liverpool.

365
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,200
Speaker 2: And I get it. It's it's not a pretty site

366
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 2: right now. But the numbers getting very very short on

367
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,080
Speaker 2: Tottenham here and if we reach minus one ten, I

368
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,680
Speaker 2: am going to have to fire on Spurs because I mean, listen, Anthony,

369
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,280
Speaker 2: They've shown life, they haven't quit. I know the Newcastle

370
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,240
Speaker 2: match was bad, but they showed life against United. They

371
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 2: showed life again, had a great moment against Liverpool before

372
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,480
Speaker 2: conceding in the next minute. And the offense under Ryan

373
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,560
Speaker 2: Mason has been good. Four point five expected goals in

374
00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:41,880
Speaker 2: their last two matches against Liverpool and United. That's very

375
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,720
Speaker 2: very good. You know, if you even go back to

376
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,160
Speaker 2: the four matches under Stalini before that, they've created nine

377
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 2: point nine expected goals in six matches. That is much

378
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:54,639
Speaker 2: better than it was under Antonio Conte. And Crystal Palace

379
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:59,440
Speaker 2: under Roy Hodgson. I like they're so up and down. Right,

380
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,879
Speaker 2: they have a huge match where they score five goals

381
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 2: against Leeds and then it's a zero zero slog against Everton,

382
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 2: and I really what it comes down to from Palace

383
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 2: is very game state dependent. Right, they concede early to

384
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,399
Speaker 2: west Ham, the match becomes very very bonkers, very transitional

385
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 2: back and forth. And two things that Palace have not

386
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,119
Speaker 2: done well this season are two things that Tottenham are

387
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 2: a lead at. Palace is in the bottom four at

388
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 2: defending process and they're fifteenth and xt g per set piece.

389
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 2: They concede it on the set piece to open the

390
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 2: match against west Ham. So those are mainly the two

391
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,679
Speaker 2: ways that Tottenham creates all of their chances. So I

392
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 2: have Tottenham projected at minus one thirty two. So if

393
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 2: this gets to minus one ten or better on Spurs,

394
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:43,120
Speaker 2: I will have to fire on them because they're still

395
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 2: battling for European spot, Like the Champions League is probably done,

396
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,920
Speaker 2: but they are still very alive for a Europa League

397
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:52,440
Speaker 2: spot until Brighton comes storming back.

398
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 3: Anthony, Yeah, I was encouraged by the second half at

399
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 3: Anfield and really like if you think about the week, Okay,

400
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 3: they got blown out by Newcastle, but then to come

401
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 3: back from two oh down and three to oh down

402
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 3: against United and Liverpool who were better teams, and play

403
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 3: the way back into it with some changing stuff.

404
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 4: I mean, Mason was trying things.

405
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 3: The classic second goal that they made it three to

406
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:19,320
Speaker 3: two from Sun was vintage Spurs Cane coming deep, playing

407
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 3: through him, getting Sun and behind, something that Conte and

408
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,439
Speaker 3: company hadn't really done with this team in the in

409
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 3: the last few months. So there's there's little signs of progress. Uh,

410
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 3: they're still very flawed defensively, and but you're you're you're

411
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 3: buying at the low low here on Spurs if you

412
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 3: do bet them here, so that is generally good.

413
00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,120
Speaker 4: I can't get to Palace plus a half. I mean

414
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 4: we bet Palace plus a half at Palace earlier this year.

415
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, but that was there, right, and and but now

416
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 3: it's like, okay, what are we doing here?

417
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, very different.

418
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's got to be Tottenham or nothing for me though.

419
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 6: The The thing about Spurs too is it's it's a

420
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 6: weird spot, right like BJ you kind of touched on

421
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 6: they're alive for for European places like they're and I

422
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 6: know they got to hold off Villa and they'll want to.

423
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:16,400
Speaker 5: Stay inside that top six. But they played Newcastle.

424
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 6: United and Liverpool three games on the spin. That was

425
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 6: their chance to really make a run. Now it's hosting

426
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 6: Crystal Palace and I don't know, it's a it's a

427
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:29,679
Speaker 6: weird spot to me. But uh, anyways, you guys like Spurs,

428
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 6: I'm gonna stay away and.

429
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 2: Say even going back further than that, Like, it's been

430
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 2: a tough run in here for Spurs. They've also had

431
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 2: to play Brighton, They've had to place face mighty mighty

432
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 2: Everton as well. Yeah, you know they had the Milan

433
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 2: you know they Milan as well. So it's like it's

434
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 2: been it's been kind of tough here for Spurs.

435
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 6: So maybe tell that to Crystal Palace, who had to

436
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,159
Speaker 6: go through the you know, in order of the table

437
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 6: one through twenty this season twice.

438
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 5: Wolverhampton and Aston Villa. Now Wolves, I think we could.

439
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 6: Say they're also on the beach thirty seven points now,

440
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 6: I think it's gonna be thirty five. Is will be

441
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 6: enough to stay up barring some one of these bottom

442
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 6: feeders just to get good.

443
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 5: Plus one?

444
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 2: Is there a season long point total thirty seven or.

445
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 4: Some No, no, no, no, no, no, three and a half

446
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 4: and a half. Yeah, it's a sweat.

447
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 3: I actually did a tweet thread with all of the overs,

448
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: unders and the close ones a couple of days ago,

449
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 3: and Wolves and Palace are the two, like true coin

450
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 3: flips that are left. So Palace was forty five and

451
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 3: a half they need six points, Wolves needs seven from

452
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 3: four and then actually, well Forest needs five.

453
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 4: So those are the three that are pretty close to

454
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 4: their totals.

455
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 6: Wolves are plus one eighty seven at home, Villa one

456
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 6: plus one forty on the road road favorite Miami Squad

457
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 6: is and the draw is a plus to thirty.

458
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 5: I don't know.

459
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 6: I mean, is there a less appealing match on the

460
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 6: board this week than this one?

461
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 5: I would know that this is gonna be right.

462
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean I can't make the case for

463
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 4: a Villa to be a road favorite. This is a

464
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 4: big derby in the Midlands.

465
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,719
Speaker 3: Wolves are you know, two teams who just adore and

466
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 3: love defensive possession and doing nothing with the ball. Like

467
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 3: the totals two and a half minus one fifty to

468
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 3: the under. It's like one whole thing feels like changes

469
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 3: like a good draw bet.

470
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 5: But I mean the way that these.

471
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 6: This no matter what I bet in an Aston Villa match,

472
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,640
Speaker 6: to opposite what happens. So I'm just not gonna I'm

473
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 6: not gonna go. Although I will say that they've their

474
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 6: their last few matches have been relatively you know, more

475
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 6: low event more like what I was expected.

476
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 4: I mean, they have been better defensively in the last month.

477
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 3: They did a good job against United overall, and I

478
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 3: think you're seeing the Emery system is doing a better

479
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 3: job here and.

480
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 4: Wolves are not going to press at all. So maybe

481
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 4: under a half ault.

482
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 6: Yeah, Like I would say, this is actually not a

483
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 6: bad zero zero that, especially with the way Wolves looked

484
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 6: against Brighton.

485
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 5: And that's six to nothing drubbing for the Seagulls. Like

486
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:28,399
Speaker 5: I said, they might be on the beach here.

487
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 6: I just I don't, I know, it's a it's a derby,

488
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 6: but no interest here from a betting perspective, So enjoy

489
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 6: it if you're in the Midlands, if you're in the

490
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 6: Black Country. But for us it's a it's a pass

491
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 6: and we move on Liverpool and Brentford. At anfield, Liverpool

492
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 6: is playing right now. They were up one nil over

493
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 6: Fulham and they are minus two hundred at the moment

494
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 6: against Brentford bas plus four fifty. The draw is plus

495
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 6: four hundred. If we wanted to, we could just kind

496
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,199
Speaker 6: of clip what we say say about Brentford every week

497
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 6: when they're taking on one of these clubs, whether it's

498
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 6: Liverpool City, Arsenal United, one of the big big fish,

499
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 6: and you can just clip it and we put it

500
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 6: in here. Save us some time, but we'll say it again.

501
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 6: You just always want to be brent backing Brentford in

502
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 6: these spots. What is pretty funny is that they were

503
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 6: around this price against I think they close shorter than it.

504
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 5: They took money against Chelsea, so that's crazy.

505
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 6: But yeah, bees, baby, like how this is the spot?

506
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 6: This is the best spot of the week. I think, Anthony,

507
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 6: what are you doing here? I have the sheet and

508
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 6: I was just expecting to see Brentford, Brentford, Brentford, and

509
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 6: you're on Brentford.

510
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm gonna take some. So I already bet

511
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 4: both teams to score with BJ. He put me.

512
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 3: He alerted me on the bad line that we found

513
00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 3: followers in the app. It was up for a while

514
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 3: a couple of days, but that's gone now on both

515
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 3: teams to score, it's up to minus one fifty.

516
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 4: I know BJ still likes it there.

517
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 3: I like first half team total plus one sixty five

518
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 3: one seventy are out there. I think it's a fun

519
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 3: number to fade a team that has been really sloppy

520
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 3: and transition, sloppy on set pieces, everything that Brentford does.

521
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 4: You know, we had this exact conversation what was it.

522
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 3: Two weeks ago for Liverpool and like what kind of

523
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 3: teams do they struggle with? And the teams that fit

524
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 3: that description, west Ham, Leeds, Forest, Brentford, we're all of

525
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 3: the you know, the comparisonal teams. So Brentford fits that

526
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 3: same group. West Ham created over one expected goal, could

527
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 3: have had two that match and now that you know

528
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 3: Liverpool's at home, but this is still going to be

529
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 3: a live opportunity for Brentford. To go and do what

530
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 3: they do best. So I like them plus one point

531
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 3: two five. I like them to score in the first half.

532
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 3: I think this is exactly the same two bets I

533
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 3: made in the last meeting between them, which they won

534
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 3: three to one, so you know, the same flas Liverpool's

535
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 3: attacks seems to be figuring some things out.

536
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 4: But I'm looking at it now.

537
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a very depleted Fulham team out

538
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 3: shooting them eleven to seven after seventy minutes, as we

539
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,400
Speaker 3: said here, so I don't have the full match report,

540
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 3: but no matter what happens in the last twenty minutes,

541
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 3: a very lackluster home showing for the Reds.

542
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like, I like both teams to score. So

543
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 2: I projected at minus won ninety six, so minus won

544
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: fifty guys toill have some value. And it's just like

545
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 2: Anthony said, Liverpool's dead, last them from your league and

546
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: next g allowed per set piece against one of the

547
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:35,679
Speaker 2: most efficient set piece offenses in England and they just

548
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 2: you know, and the thing about Liverpool is, you know,

549
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 2: the big storyline with them is they've inverted Trent Alexander

550
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 2: Arnold's the middle of the pitch and it's completely unlocked

551
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 2: Liverpool's offense. It's made them awesome. You know, before this

552
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: Folo match they'd created thirteen point five expected goals in

553
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 2: the five matches where they've inverted Trent alexand Arnol in

554
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 2: the midfield. And that's all wonderful, but that also means

555
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 2: now Liverpool, who's already been bad in transition defenses playing

556
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 2: back three, they're relying on Fabinho to drop back and

557
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 2: be that transition ball stopper, which he just has not

558
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 2: been this season. So it creates these just unbelievably chaotic

559
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 2: matches with teams that are so good in transition, and

560
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 2: Brentford fits the category as a probably one of the

561
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 2: best transition offenses in the Premier League outside of a

562
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 2: team in the Big Six. Brentford in nine matches against

563
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 2: the Big Six this season I've created twelve point two

564
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,159
Speaker 2: expected goals and ten big scoring chances. The last time

565
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,919
Speaker 2: against Liverpool they created one point seven expected goals and

566
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 2: three big scoring chances. So this match I believe has

567
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 2: chaos written all over it and I think both teams

568
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 2: to score is far too low at minus one fifty.

569
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,719
Speaker 5: On to West Ham and Manchester United. West Ham Down

570
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 5: to nil.

571
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 6: Right now as we speak to man City, they look

572
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 6: relatively safe. I think that they'll tell you they're not

573
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 6: safe yet, but they'ren't. Thirty four points from what will

574
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 6: be thirty four matches heading into the weekend and we'll

575
00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 6: take on United here at home. The Hammers are plus

576
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 6: two forty. I think that you know, they have an

577
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 6: interesting schedule west Ham for this for the relegation battle

578
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 6: because it's United, and then they have a tough match

579
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 6: against Well. They go to the Conference League semi finals

580
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 6: against Alkmar and then Brentford away and then two relegation

581
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 6: fighters to close out the season.

582
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 5: Leads and Lester.

583
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 6: Leads will be at the London Stadium and then Lester

584
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 6: will be at the King Power so he'll be on

585
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 6: the road for that one. Like I said, they should

586
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 6: feel relatively safe in the spot that they're in, but this,

587
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 6: even just a point here, is just gigantic and I

588
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 6: think David Moyes is really kind of adept at managing

589
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 6: to those those kind of situations and I think that's

590
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 6: how he'll set this team up. I don't hate to

591
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 6: look on the under I don't hate to look on

592
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 6: west Ham. We've talked about it a million times. This

593
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 6: is a team that's much better than their position in

594
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 6: their standings suggests they should not be fighting for relegation.

595
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 6: They should be up there around where Chelsea is, or

596
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 6: maybe a little higher and comfortably in the mid table.

597
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 6: United BJ looks overpriced here, so I think the under

598
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 6: and west Ham are the way to go. Those things

599
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 6: I think correlate as well.

600
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like you know, Declan Rice and soycheck

601
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 2: match against City with a stomach bug. So I assume

602
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 2: that they'll be back for this match. We'll see, which

603
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 2: is obviously huge because they're the center of their midfield

604
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: and so you saw Moys today went with a five

605
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 2: four to one against City to try to clog up

606
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 2: the middle of the pitch and that's probably what he's

607
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 2: going to do as well against Manchester United. And I agree.

608
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: I do believe Manchester United is overvalued. And this is

609
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 2: something that we've talked about quite a bit, is that

610
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: United away from Old Trafford just has not been as

611
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 2: good as they've been at home. You know, they're a

612
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: minus three point six expected gol differential away from home,

613
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: and you know the type of matches where United is

614
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 2: at their best is when teams come out and press

615
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 2: them and they're able to get in behind and play

616
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: in transition and and create those spaces in between. Well,

617
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: that's not going to happen against David Moyes's west Ham,

618
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 2: who's one of the best low blocks in the Premier League.

619
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 2: And it's a west Ham team that has been much

620
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: better at home they've been on the road. So you know,

621
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 2: I have United at plus one forty eight, so I

622
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 2: do like the valley on the Hammers at plus half

623
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 2: in Anthony.

624
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a little worried just because of the spot right,

625
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 3: Like west Ham probably has to play their guys, but

626
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 3: I'm gonna wait and make sure they are before I

627
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 3: bet them. I need Rice and Socheck in this game

628
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 3: to really get what I think is the edge here,

629
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 3: which is that west Ham has the better midfield and

630
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 3: that is true with the two of them in the game.

631
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 3: A Garrett being back would help as well for the defense.

632
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 3: But at home catching a half is a good number.

633
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 3: I just bet it against Liverpool. I'm going to bet

634
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: it against United, So just a lean from me for now.

635
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 3: You'll probably see me bet it come Sunday morning. But

636
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 3: waiting on some news there because they could also be

637
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 3: careful and opt to sit them knowing that they have

638
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 3: this Conference League tie on Thursday. So I don't think

639
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 3: they will because, like you said, they're not safe yet.

640
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 3: But from a matchup perspective, these two teams played a

641
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: pretty even match the first first matchup as well, so

642
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 3: the Hammers at home catching a half.

643
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 4: They got betted a lot this year and vary in

644
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 4: degrees of success.

645
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 3: But we will be able to slow down United's attack

646
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 3: and really keep United out of transition, which is what

647
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 3: west Ham's very good at.

648
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 4: So I like the matchup.

649
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 6: We should also note that, well while west Ham and

650
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 6: Fulham are aren't there, they're obviously avoiding Saturday because of

651
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 6: the coronation of King Charles. We will have a London

652
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 6: match going on in Spurs and Palace, so just keep

653
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 6: that in mind, work that into your numbers. There will

654
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 6: be a coronation ceremony going on on Saturday in London,

655
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 6: Fulham and Leicester. This is fun, right, Like, I love

656
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 6: how this schedule has set up because you're gonna have

657
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 6: three huge relegation matches on Monday, they're staggered. It's gonna

658
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 6: be an absolute joy to be me. On Monday, watch

659
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 6: Fulham and Leicester at ten am, then watch Everyton lose

660
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 6: to Brighton at twelve thirty, and then Forest in Southampton

661
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 6: at three. I probably won't be watching that. I'll just

662
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 6: be staring off into space somewhere. We'll start with Fulham

663
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 6: and Leicester. This is basically a pick them on the

664
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 6: three way line, even though it's at Fulham plus one

665
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 6: sixty two Pereirees out for the.

666
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 5: Rest of the year.

667
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 6: Lester coming off of a absolutely hectic match against Everton

668
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 6: where it finished to two. It could have finished four

669
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 6: to four, could have made an argument five to three

670
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 6: for either side. I think, crazy Dean Smith, what is

671
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 6: going on there? But defensively, I just think you can't

672
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 6: really trust Lester even with the depleted Fulham playing for

673
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 6: nothing here in the spot so I'll be passing and

674
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 6: just rooting on the Cottagers.

675
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 5: Anthony, Yeah, excited for this match.

676
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: Don't really know what to make all these injuries now

677
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 3: for Fulham. Metro of course still being out, but no

678
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,720
Speaker 3: tim Reem now for the rest of the season. Parra

679
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 3: missing today, gonna probably miss Monday. There's a lot not

680
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 3: to like here. Two really bad defenses. I actually like

681
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 3: Fulham more than Lester as a team.

682
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 4: But you're seeing the.

683
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 3: The tax here you're gonna get for relegated team being

684
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 3: a pick them.

685
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna pass on this one entirely.

686
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 3: And I'm really tempted to play the under but after

687
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 3: seeing some of the defensive performances that Lester's put in

688
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks, it's really hard to get there.

689
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 3: That game against Everton was really troublesome over three xtual

690
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 3: for both teams.

691
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 4: This will pass for me, b J.

692
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 2: Anything here, Yeah, No, I mean maybe a look at

693
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 2: Lester's team total over one and a half, which is

694
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 2: currently sitting at plus one thirty. I mean the Dean

695
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 2: Smith offensive revolution. They've created over two expected goals in

696
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 2: every match that he's been in charge so far, and

697
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: he's playing a very open style and it's something that

698
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 2: Lester's gotten better because now that all their attackers are

699
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 2: healthy right now, Telaman's and who's been out for a

700
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 2: long time, and James Madison as well, they have all

701
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 2: these ball progressors available to go up against, you know,

702
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: a Fulham defense that, like Anthony mentioned, is going to

703
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: be without Tim Ram. He's played you know before the injury.

704
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 2: He played pretty much every single minute for them, so

705
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 2: his loss is pretty detrimental. And again, Fulham's on the

706
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 2: beach right now. They have no attackers available, so if

707
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 2: I were to target anything in this match, it would

708
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 2: be Lester's team total.

709
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 5: All right, if we do, you want to talk about

710
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 5: everything in Brighton Brights three hundred.

711
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 4: I'm actually excited for this one.

712
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 5: This is a good seven to.

713
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 6: One on the road. That draw is U plus four

714
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 6: one hundred, and I was a little I was actually

715
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 6: pretty impressed with, however, been played against Leicester because they

716
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 6: didn't look like I was kind of nervous after their

717
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 6: previous couple performances there a couple of mistakes did them

718
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 6: in Calvert Lewin does give them a much you know,

719
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 6: just having a focal point of this attack just changes

720
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 6: everything a little bit. And I don't like hate the

721
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,919
Speaker 6: idea of like James Garner if he gets the starter

722
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 6: Dwight McNeil and then just parlaying one of those guys

723
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 6: anytime assists with Calvert Lewin anytime goal and taking that

724
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 6: as a high upside play, because that's just going to

725
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 6: be the plan here. But whether I don't know, if

726
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 6: they're going to be able to stay with Brighton in

727
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 6: this match, and it's given me all sorts of he

728
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 6: b gbis Anthony, you do have some faith though.

729
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a spot I like for Everton. I

730
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 3: like to match up. Brighton wants to play open. Everton

731
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 3: has been playing a more open style and look, I'm

732
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 3: sure Brighton is going to create a bunch of chances

733
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 3: and score a couple of goals here. I took both

734
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 3: teams to score, and I took Everton plus one and

735
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 3: a half because I don't trust this Brighton defense nearly

736
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 3: enough to lay the one and a half with them

737
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:02,800
Speaker 3: on this number.

738
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 4: You know, we all talked against.

739
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 3: Wolves where Wolves didn't really do much to disrupt the possession.

740
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 3: They let Brighton walk into the final third dominated the match,

741
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 3: just scored a you know, a half dozen on Wolves.

742
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 4: But Everton are playing it differently.

743
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 3: And I treated this on Monday like the defense has

744
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 3: not gotten better. The defense has gotten worse under Sean Diist.

745
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 3: They're playing a very open style, but the attack has

746
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 3: made a significant improvement. And this is something we've talked about,

747
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 3: you know, last spring when we did the show. When

748
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,399
Speaker 3: teams have little to play for, you tend to see

749
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 3: the defense drop off games become more high event defenses

750
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 3: are you know, you're not willing to put that extra

751
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 3: tackle in, You're not willing to cover that extra ground

752
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 3: to get back the little things in energy and effort

753
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 3: out of possession don't happen when you don't have as

754
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: much to play for, which is kind of the case

755
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 3: for Brighton here. And it's a major reason why I

756
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 3: like Everton. It's attack in this matchup desperate Everton. So

757
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the plus one and.

758
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 4: A half as well.

759
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 3: I think it's a little bit inflated. So I'm going

760
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 3: to take the Toffees to score a couple here and

761
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 3: make this like a two to one three two kind

762
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 3: of game, maybe steal a result, But I don't trust

763
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 3: Brighton's defense enough to get the margin required to lay

764
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 3: a goal and a half here.

765
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 5: What do you think of BJ?

766
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna pray play Brighton's team total over

767
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:17,919
Speaker 2: two and a half at plus one point thirty. It's

768
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 2: a lot of the stuff in Anthony was mentioning there

769
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 2: is that you know Everton's defense has gotten worse because

770
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 2: they're not playing a typical Sean Deitsch type defense is

771
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 2: something we've talked about many, many times, is they're trying

772
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 2: to disrupt bill or play. They're trying to press high,

773
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 2: they're trying to create, like Anthony mentioned, these open style

774
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 2: matches where they can force these high turnovers. And Brighton

775
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 2: is obviously a team that loves to bait you into pressing.

776
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 2: And I was reading some interesting tactical stuff about, you know,

777
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 2: Brighton and their style of play, and what you know

778
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 2: Deserby essentially wants is he likes to build out in

779
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 2: a four to two four, and he brings his two

780
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,439
Speaker 2: midfielders very very close to that back line of four

781
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,919
Speaker 2: and then pushes four attackers up on the back line.

782
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 2: And what it does is it creates a ton of

783
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,280
Speaker 2: space in behind that first or second line of defense

784
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 2: if a team decides to press, which essentially creates a

785
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 2: very transitional type team for Brighton. Even though the theory

786
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 2: they're a build up team, Everton hasn't been that good

787
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 2: at disrupting build up play. Like they're not a Newcastle,

788
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 2: They're not one of these teams that can actually do

789
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 2: that to Brighton. So I agree with Anthony. I think

790
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 2: this is going to be a very open style match

791
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 2: and Brighton is still fighting for a European spot. And

792
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 2: the thing about Brighton though, is is that when you

793
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 2: bait teams into pressing you, it becomes a very risky style.

794
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 2: And you saw that what happened against Nottingham forst is

795
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 2: they had to they gave the ball away twice in

796
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 2: their own end and noting eam Forrest beat you know,

797
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 2: put the ball in the back then at twice. Even

798
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 2: in the first thirty second against Wolfs, Wolves forced a

799
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 2: high turnover and had a good chance to go ahead

800
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 2: and it didn't happen, and then you know Brighton pounded

801
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 2: them after that. So I do project Brighton right on

802
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,800
Speaker 2: two point five expecting goals for this one. So I

803
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 2: think it's a decent price over two and a half

804
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:58,320
Speaker 2: team total at plus one thirty.

805
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:03,400
Speaker 6: And finally another Monday night football match here between Southampton

806
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 6: and Forest. Let's set up the relegation battle. As we

807
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,919
Speaker 6: sit now, Lester is on thirty points from thirty four

808
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 6: matches there in sixteenth Leeds United behind them only a

809
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 6: goal difference with thirty points from thirty four. Same with

810
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 6: Forrest who are in eighteenth, the one of the three

811
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 6: relegation spots.

812
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 5: They will likely.

813
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 6: If you look at this as a mini league between

814
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 6: four teams Everdon, Forest, Leeds Leicester, it looks very likely

815
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 6: that Nottingham Forest will have the worst goal differential and

816
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 6: that tiebreaker could very well come into play. Everton on

817
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 6: twenty nine points their point back of all three of

818
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 6: those teams, they have a better goal different or they

819
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 6: have a better goal differential than Forest and they're one

820
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 6: goal back of leads, so keeping this tidy for Everdon

821
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 6: also matters. You know that they cannot get blown out

822
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 6: by Brighton here, but let's talk about Forest and Saints.

823
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 6: Southampton is at the foot of the table, propping it

824
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 6: up on twenty four points, so they need a win

825
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 6: above anything else to just even have a chance of

826
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 6: getting out. It's almost a certainty they won't. They've lost

827
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 6: four of their last five. It looks really bad, but

828
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 6: I do think that Forrest is an even money favored

829
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 6: on the three way line at home is a little

830
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 6: rich and I think you should get the best out

831
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 6: of Southampton in the spot as they try their goddamn

832
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 6: best to at least make their last few games or

833
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 6: their next couple of games meaningful. It's ugly to close

834
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:36,720
Speaker 6: out the season for them they got to play Brighton

835
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 6: away and Liverpool, but Forrest and Fulham coming up or

836
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 6: winning winnable matches. So I actually like Southampton here. I

837
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 6: think there's some value at plus two sixty on the Saints,

838
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 6: so I'll be back in them.

839
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 2: BJ I agree. I think the price is far too

840
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 2: high on Nottingham Forest here. And listen, I mean if

841
00:41:55,200 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: Southampton wins this match, they give themselves relative hope of survival,

842
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 2: Like it's not over for Southampton yet. And this is

843
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 2: a Southampton team that's drastically underperformed this season. You know,

844
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 2: they have the same exact you know, actual goal differential

845
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 2: is Nottingham Forest minus thirty two, but they have a

846
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 2: better expectacle differential on them. They're at minus nineteen and

847
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 2: a half and Nottingham Forest is at minus twenty two

848
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 2: and a half. And this match is going to be

849
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 2: very transitional. It's going to be very back and forth,

850
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 2: end to end style match, and it's one that you know,

851
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 2: between two teams that are essentially even or with not

852
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 2: you know, Southampton being very slightly better than Notingham Forest.

853
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 2: The price is far too high here on the Trees,

854
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 2: even though they've been better at homes. So you know,

855
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: I have this match projected pretty close to a Pickham,

856
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 2: so I'll take the I'll take the value on Southampton

857
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 2: plus a half at minus on twenty five Anthony three

858
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 2: for three.

859
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 3: I don't really want to like I agree generally speaking

860
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 3: with the point, like, given I think these two teams

861
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 3: are pretty even, I would lean towards just the dog

862
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 3: plus a half at any circumstance. But the goalie situation

863
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,400
Speaker 3: is such a huge gap in quality and ability. Although

864
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,240
Speaker 3: I mean, novel has cost me last week with the under,

865
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 3: but the gap there is so significant. And I know

866
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 3: we talk about like regression for Bazunu and whatnot, but

867
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 3: at some point it's a really, really bad goalkeeper situation

868
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 3: and that's going to cost us a couple tenths of

869
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 3: a goal almost per match.

870
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 4: So I have to pass here.

871
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 6: Before we move on to the Bundesliga. I just saw

872
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:32,240
Speaker 6: a tweet that man City just scored its one thousandth

873
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 6: goal under Pep Cordial three.

874
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 2: Nothing, that's that's.

875
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 5: Something, all right, Bundesliga. You both have place here. We'll

876
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:40,240
Speaker 5: start with Anthony.

877
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, IM gonna take Shaka plus one on the road

878
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 4: against Minds.

879
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 3: Look, I like Minds. This is a Minds podcast. You know,

880
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 3: deep down at heart we love Minds. But their attack

881
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 3: has not been nearly good enough to be laying this

882
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 3: goal here, and I think that's going to cause some

883
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 3: problems for them against the defense for Shaka that has

884
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 3: made significant improvements under Thomas Reich since he.

885
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 4: Came in Minds. You know, ninth in actually for ninety

886
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 4: fifteenth and big scoring chances.

887
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 3: It's just not a team that gets consistent shot production

888
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 3: and close in shot production.

889
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 4: They have one of the three or four worst average shot.

890
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 3: Distances in the league as well, So this is a

891
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 3: Minds team that struggles to consistently create. They're a little

892
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 3: inflated here. I was surprised to see that they don't

893
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 3: get the ball in the final third that much either,

894
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 3: and Shakas defense is enough to keep them in this.

895
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 4: I took the plus one minus twenty.

896
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 5: Five all right, beja Bundesliga for you.

897
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Leverkusen in a lookhead spot is a

898
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 2: little overvalued here against Cologne on the road. I only

899
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 2: have lever Cuson projected at plus one sixteen and you know, listen,

900
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 2: Shabi Alonso has done a fantastic job basically turning ground

901
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 2: this lever Cousen club and getting them into a position

902
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:51,360
Speaker 2: where they could get back into a European spot obviously

903
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 2: the semifinal against Roma here. But Cologne is a very

904
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 2: very good team in transition defense, which essentially is what

905
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 2: Shabi Alonso wants them to do. He's turned them into

906
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 2: a ry come back defense versus the very pressing, high

907
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 2: intensity style and has made them very very elite and

908
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 2: transition well, that's where Colonne is at their best defensively.

909
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 2: So I think Leverkusen is a little too overvalid here

910
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 2: at home. So like Colonne plus one at minus one twenty.

911
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 3: Five, yeah, and it's not I mean you're paying the tax, right.

912
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 3: So Leverkusen is not out of the picture for the

913
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 3: top four. They are eight points back with four to go,

914
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 3: but they have a couple head to heads here, so

915
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 3: they have a chance to kind of make it up.

916
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 3: It's going to be very hard to do that, but

917
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 3: they are not out of the picture yet, but certainly

918
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 3: a little bit of attacks on them given the must

919
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 3: win nature, whereas Colne is kind of just sitting in

920
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 3: the mid table with nothing left on the docket for them.

921
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 6: Antony you're the only one looking at Syria ah this week.

922
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we got a chance for a little

923
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 4: celebration spot here.

924
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 3: Napoli, by the time you're listening to this podcast may

925
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 3: have clinched the league. Lazio did win against a swallow

926
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 3: on Wednesday, so it comes down to Napoli on Thursday

927
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 3: against Esse.

928
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 4: They just need a point.

929
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 3: I expect them to get it and then the celebrations

930
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 3: are in store for Sunday. Could see some rotation, it's

931
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 3: just a natural flat spot. I like the under two

932
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 3: and a half goals as they take on Fiorentina, who

933
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 3: has taken real steps forward defensively under Italiano this year.

934
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,399
Speaker 3: We talked about how good their field tilt numbers were.

935
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 3: They're not going to get dominated and their defensive press

936
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,760
Speaker 3: is actually good enough to disrupt Napoli's possession structures anyway.

937
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 3: So I like them to make this game a pretty

938
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 3: coin flippy type thing and I will be touching on

939
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 3: them later on as well.

940
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 6: Yeah, and before we get to our underdogs and best

941
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 6: bets for the Premier League, BJ Legal Huge.

942
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 2: Match League on this weekend, lens Hope hosting Marseille for

943
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 2: essentially who's going to finish in second place in the

944
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:49,919
Speaker 2: table and that no, Anthony, it's over.

945
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 3: We're only five points back. Marseille is not yet dead.

946
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 2: Neither is a Lens. But no, I think that the

947
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 2: total here is a tad too low. You know, these

948
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 2: are two teams that are near the top offensively in XG.

949
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 2: Marseille the last three matches have created over seven expected

950
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,479
Speaker 2: goals against Troy Leon and Ager. And it's a Lens

951
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 2: defense that has overperformed drastically this season. Before the match

952
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 2: Againts to lose, they had allowed only twenty one goals

953
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 2: of a thirty one expected So two of the top

954
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 2: five offenses meeting in league on. I think we got

955
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 2: a chance for some goals here. So and I do

956
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 2: project a little over three goals, so over two and

957
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 2: a half and minus one twenty is good enough for me.

958
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 5: All right, on to the underdogs.

959
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 6: Anthony was out past week, but we're starting to close

960
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:38,920
Speaker 6: in on one. It feels like we've we've had a

961
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 6: couple of close calls over the past few weeks. I

962
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 6: feel pretty good about this one, Antony, you can go first.

963
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 4: Yeah.

964
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 3: I ran the accounting for the season the other day

965
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 3: on what we are as a group we are twenty

966
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 3: one and seventy, which sounds terrible, but we're actually up

967
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 3: twenty one units.

968
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 4: So that's the beauty of the underdogs. And that does

969
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 4: not include any like parlaying them together.

970
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:04,399
Speaker 3: That just includes like straight underdog bets each individual pick

971
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 3: that we give out on the show. So yeah, twenty

972
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 3: one and seventy plus twenty one units with a month ago,

973
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Fiorentina four to one. I just talked

974
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:16,720
Speaker 3: about the hangover spot, potential rest situations, celebrations in store

975
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:17,240
Speaker 3: all weekend.

976
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,280
Speaker 4: You're gonna see them partying Friday and Saturday.

977
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 3: You see this all the time with teams where they

978
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 3: are hungover, they don't show up necessarily for the match.

979
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 3: There are some risks with Fiorentina because Fiorentina is kind

980
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 3: of just on the beach in the mid table, worried

981
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 3: about their Conference League match Thursday potentially, But again, like

982
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 3: I said, the ability to have Napoli power rated as

983
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:39,760
Speaker 3: high as they are with a very questionable motivation spot

984
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 3: puts me on Fiorentina. And that's the kind of speculative

985
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:44,280
Speaker 3: underdog I like to take care So plus.

986
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:47,360
Speaker 5: Four hundred, this one's pretty obvious. If you've been listening.

987
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 6: The key cog in our two hundred to one parlay

988
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 6: right before the World Cup was Brentford. They were nineteen

989
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 6: to one that day, but plus four to fifty at Liverpool.

990
00:48:57,280 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 6: This team just punches up so well against the Big six.

991
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 6: J ran over the stats earlier.

992
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 5: In the show.

993
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 6: They are live once again. Even on the road at Anfield,

994
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,160
Speaker 6: they match up well against Liverpool. They've shown it in

995
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 6: their two seasons in the Premier League and although they're

996
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 6: pretty much on the beach, as Thomas Franke has said,

997
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 6: they just want to keep trying to set a record

998
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 6: for you know, I just finish ever for the club

999
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,880
Speaker 6: in the football period RD. So I trust that they'll

1000
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 6: be ready, willing and able on the road at Anfield

1001
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 6: on over the weekend.

1002
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 5: So give me the bees once again, BJ.

1003
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 2: What do you have Southampton plus two sixty Monday afternoon

1004
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 2: against Nottingham Forest. You know, two teams based on XG

1005
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 2: who have been very very even Southampton actually being a

1006
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 2: little bit better than Nottingham Forest this season. So I

1007
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 2: believe the price on Nottingham Forest is far too high,

1008
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:49,799
Speaker 2: sitting close to even money. So I'll take the I'll

1009
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 2: take the price on Southampton a plus two sixty.

1010
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 6: If you wrap those three teams together, if Orentina Brentford

1011
00:49:56,400 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 6: Southampton ninety eight to one two hit that parlay, so

1012
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 6: hop on that, I feel pretty good about it. All Right,

1013
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 6: onto our favorite bets for the Premier League for this weekend.

1014
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 6: It's a huge weekend across the board, title race for

1015
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 6: European spots and of course the relegation battle BJ.

1016
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 2: You can go first, Yeah, Liverpool Brentford. Both teams have

1017
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:20,879
Speaker 2: score at minus one fifty. Liverpool offense has absolutely been

1018
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 2: cooking since they inverted Trent Alexander Arnold into the middle

1019
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:27,440
Speaker 2: of the pitch. It's completely opened up their bill to play.

1020
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 2: It allows Liverpool to compress five guys on the back

1021
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 2: line create overloads in the box, which is why you've

1022
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 2: seen Liverpool create thirteen point five expected goals in the

1023
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 2: five matches where they've actually inverted them into the middle

1024
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:39,839
Speaker 2: of the pitch. But what that does is it also

1025
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:42,360
Speaker 2: leaves them very, very vulnerable in transition, with Viminho not

1026
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 2: being the ball stopper that he once was. It also

1027
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 2: leaves Liverpool with only three guys at the back up

1028
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 2: against one of the best transitional offenses in the Premier League.

1029
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,240
Speaker 2: Brentford punches up so good offensively against the Big Six

1030
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 2: and nine matches against them twelve point two expected goals

1031
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,319
Speaker 2: created along with ten big scoring chances, including one point

1032
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 2: seven in the previous meetings. So I have bolt team

1033
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 2: to score projected at minus one ninety six. So I

1034
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:05,880
Speaker 2: love the value amounts one to fifty.

1035
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 6: I'm gonna back Southampton is my favorite bet on the

1036
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:11,320
Speaker 6: money line plus two sixty on the road at Nottingham Forest.

1037
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:11,880
Speaker 5: I think there's a.

1038
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 6: Little bit of a tax beam you're gonna have to

1039
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 6: pay on Nottingham Forest. Maybe the market just thinks that

1040
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 6: Southampton is gonna lay down and go quietly into the

1041
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 6: night as the overwhelming relegation favorite. There's six points adrift,

1042
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 6: but you know they're not out of it yet. They're

1043
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,600
Speaker 6: not done yet, and the difference between these two teams

1044
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:31,879
Speaker 6: just is not wide enough to make Forest an even

1045
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,319
Speaker 6: money favorite at home on the three way line. So

1046
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 6: a last gas bounce maybe from Southampton they can punch

1047
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:42,760
Speaker 6: up a little bit. This is the spot, So Saints

1048
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 6: plus two sixty on the money line for me, Anthony.

1049
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:48,400
Speaker 4: I also ran some accounting on our best bets for

1050
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 4: the season fifty eight to fifty nine and four plus

1051
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:53,120
Speaker 4: sixteen units. Does anybody want to guess who is in

1052
00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:54,399
Speaker 4: first place of the three of.

1053
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 2: Us in terms of the best account breaking a long shot, The.

1054
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 4: Answer it is yes, Michael J.

1055
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:04,399
Speaker 3: Leaboff plus nine units, and then BJ and I are

1056
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:06,439
Speaker 3: right around three and a half up for the year.

1057
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 3: So it's been a profitable year there, let's keep it going.

1058
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Newcastle draw on no bet minus one

1059
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:16,960
Speaker 3: fifteen at home against Arsenal. Cannot get to Arsenal being

1060
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 3: a coin flip here. They may be the marginally better team,

1061
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:21,839
Speaker 3: but they are on the road. They have the build

1062
00:52:21,920 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 3: up issues against Newcastle's press. They've been continually leaky defensively.

1063
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 3: They are not solving those issues anytime soon with the

1064
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 3: number of players they're committing forward with the lack of

1065
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:34,439
Speaker 3: ball winning in the midfield, especially if Party misses again,

1066
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:38,799
Speaker 3: which is certainly possible. So I like the Magpies at

1067
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 3: home drawn no bet minus one fifteen.

1068
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:45,160
Speaker 6: Okay, well, here's too keeping up the profitable season for

1069
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 6: the show. Maybe we'll scratch out a ninety eight to

1070
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 6: one winner in the underdog parlay. Feels like I said,

1071
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 6: feels good, but we will see you guys again for

1072
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:57,840
Speaker 6: Champions League one day morning. Until then, best left with

1073
00:52:57,840 --> 00:52:59,520
Speaker 6: all your bets. Thank you Anthony, thank you BJ, and

1074
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 6: thank you to bet three sixty five.

1075
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1076
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:18,759
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1077
00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler