1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 5 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 3: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the 7 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 2: show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from 8 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 2: our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the 9 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 2: podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and 10 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 2: always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg 11 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: Business App. 12 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 3: Amy with Silverman RBC joins us this morning. 13 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:55,639 Speaker 2: Amy. What do the derivatives, variantskurtosis, the rest of it? 14 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: What's the character the nature of this pullmarket when you 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 2: look at the cross moments. 16 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 4: Hey, good morning guys. So you know one thing I've 17 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 4: been analogizing this too, is right now, the airplane may 18 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 4: have stabilized, we're at a steady altitude, but everyone still 19 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 4: remembers the turbulence. We might still have our seatbelt time, 20 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 4: we probably have our eyes closed. And that's a little 21 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 4: bit the positioning we're seeing in the directors market. So 22 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 4: you know your headline Vixen is normalized a lot, but 23 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 4: all those secondary moments that you talk about, your skew, 24 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 4: your volatility of ball, you know, those are still pretty high. 25 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,559 Speaker 4: And for good reason. You know, institutional memory is short, 26 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 4: and we still remember what happened a few weeks ago. 27 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 2: Are we under owned Tech into Nvidia? Folks ed Ludlow 28 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: a special tomorrow in the six o'clock evening hour with 29 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 2: mister rying from in Vidia, Amy was Silberman. Are we 30 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 2: under owned on tech? Or is Tech over owned? 31 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 4: Look from a positioning perspective, it feels like a lot 32 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 4: of people have already jumped in the pool. The reason 33 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 4: I say that is when you look at historical position 34 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 4: and every earnings except this one for Nvidia, you know, 35 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 4: it was very very long that call SKU. People really 36 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 4: need to jump in, so they're holding that right tail 37 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 4: in the options market to do so. You don't see 38 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 4: that this time around. It's much more even. So. You know, 39 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 4: people aren't overly bearish, but they're also not overly bullish. 40 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 4: And to me, that not being overly bullish is very 41 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 4: very different than that past I'd say six to eight quarters. 42 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 4: You know, ever since we got that May twenty twenty 43 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 4: three blowout number. 44 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: Damian Goldwin Sachs making a huge deal about this. A 45 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 2: lot of the you know, I don't know I'm gonna say, 46 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 2: is a generalization. Hedge funds yeap are not They're not 47 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 2: piled into in video right now. 48 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 5: Well, you know what I mean, Tom and Amy. You 49 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:37,679 Speaker 5: can help me with this. You know, I'm not really 50 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 5: so concerned whether or not the skew on Nvidia is 51 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 5: platty or leptocritotic. What I'm really more concerned with is 52 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 5: real demand for hedging. It's taken me, I mean for months, 53 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 5: for months, I've been talking to people about costs for protections, cheap, 54 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 5: you should be hedging here. You know, equity market at 55 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 5: all time highs. Nobody would take my call. Nobody would 56 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 5: talk to me. What are you hearing now from investors? 57 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:00,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, welcome to my life. You're exactly right. You know, 58 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 4: people don't want to hear about it when realized, well 59 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 4: it is hitting eight and VIX is kind of just 60 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 4: floating along. But it usually takes some sort of draw 61 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 4: down in the market to remind people why you hedge 62 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 4: in the first place. I will tell you those calls 63 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 4: are picking up, and I will tell you that the 64 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 4: cost protection on a historical basis is still relatively inexpensive. Sure, 65 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 4: is it more expensive than it was three weeks so absolutely, 66 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 4: but on a kind of longer tail basis, you know, 67 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 4: it's still relatively attractive and you can structure ways to carry. 68 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 3: That cost across the nation and worldwide. 69 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 2: Just to help you out with a jargon of young sessour, 70 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 2: his golf game right now is Lepto kutah, So that's 71 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 2: where he got that phrase. 72 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 3: Trump jam. 73 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 6: We got to ask you about this. 74 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 5: I know that in Vidia earnings it's a big the 75 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 5: more option markets are pricing in a big move here, 76 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 5: you know what other events over the next let's say 77 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 5: thirty days are really pricing in big moves if you 78 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 5: look at overnight option markets. Obviously you have NFP on 79 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 5: the sixth of September, but you know after that, I 80 00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 5: mean we've got some FED meetings, We've got CPI, I 81 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 5: mean what about BOJ, what about boee c B. Do 82 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 5: you see any other central banks moving markets? 83 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 4: Not nearly as much as you know that NFP you mentioned, 84 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 4: and obviously the FED, I will tell you September tends 85 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 4: to be a conference season, so you know, everyone's kind 86 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 4: of back into the office. There's a lot of single 87 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:19,280 Speaker 4: name conferences that come up in industry conferences, and that 88 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 4: usually tends to kind of surprise people. So you get 89 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 4: some sort of fundamental idiosyncratic information that comes out of those. 90 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 4: Those are usually kind of underpriced, and those are some 91 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 4: things we watch for in September. 92 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 2: Amy, is there any science here that cash is moving? 93 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 2: I mean, rates have come in a little bit off 94 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 2: the power speech, But does RBC see cash moving to 95 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 2: new places? 96 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 4: So you know, in some ways, Tom, it's still the 97 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 4: same old story, but I think there's going to be 98 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 4: new themes. Obviously, one is just what we're doing and 99 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 4: seeing in terms of small MidCap value versus growth. You know, 100 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 4: you get that flight to safety back to the megacap 101 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 4: tech names when you have those drawdowns. But one thing 102 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 4: that I think investors have been itching to do, we 103 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 4: just haven't quite got there, is to go back into 104 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 4: these wider breadth names. And when you see that call 105 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 4: Skew pickup, it's usually a forward indicator that those kind 106 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 4: of themes are starting to move again. 107 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 5: You know, I just want to ask you one last question, Amy, 108 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 5: I mean, it's gotten increasingly difficult for hedge funds or 109 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 5: you know, anybody who's greater on a marked and market basis, 110 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 5: you know, to find a free lunch in this market. 111 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 5: You know, it used to be the basis trade. Then 112 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 5: it was the FX carry trade. Talk to us about 113 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 5: the impact of US rest of world rate compression. Do 114 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 5: you see that impacting equities here? 115 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, it to some of the great it has a 116 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,160 Speaker 4: little bit already. But I think you know what's interesting 117 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 4: to me is when you got that major draw down 118 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 4: a few weeks ago, it really shook all these carry 119 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 4: trades a little, right, But in our space and equity 120 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 4: volatility space, we actually saw some folks double down. So 121 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 4: when you ask about a free lunch, people are still 122 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 4: betting on that to some degree. I think that's absolutely fascinating. 123 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 4: You know, So maybe that doesn't work as much in 124 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 4: FX anymore, but you still people kind of you know, 125 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 4: they're still saying, like, we think that exists in the 126 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 4: equity wall premium space, and we're still going to try 127 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 4: it for the months to come. 128 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 2: Amy, We're silverman, Thank you so much. RBC Capital. Now 129 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 2: an in Nvidia actually not a pontificator, but somebody that 130 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 2: actually knows what they're talking about. Walmart at the bottom 131 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 2: of the income statement makes three cents on the dollar. 132 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 2: In Nvidia, at the bottom of the income statement, makes 133 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 2: fifty five cents on the dollar. 134 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,799 Speaker 3: Can they sustain fifty five. 135 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 2: Cents on the dollar at the bottom of the income statement. 136 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 7: I think they can, at least for the next two years. 137 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 7: It's very hard to look at the landscape beyond that, 138 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 7: given how fast this space is moving, but clearly they 139 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 7: have the product lead to do that. 140 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 2: Men dig sing with us from Bloomberg Intelligence. So just 141 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:02,160 Speaker 2: simply these chips, these things they sew that we don't understand. 142 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 2: Do they depreciate, do they become obsolescent? What's the Nvidia 143 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 2: advantage to what happens to these chips once they sell them? 144 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 7: They do depreciate, and think of you know, your old PCs. 145 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 7: I mean, they're still around. They're not as useful as 146 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 7: the new ones, but you can still use them for 147 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 7: some sort of computation. It's the same way with nvideo GPUs, 148 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 7: albeit they're much larger in terms of you know, the 149 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 7: compute capacity they are sitting in a data center, and 150 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 7: they do depreciate, but the usefulness will last for at least, 151 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 7: you know, good eight to ten years. And that's where 152 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 7: you know, companies that are pulling together all these joint 153 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 7: data centers with clusters of GPUs, they have an advantage 154 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 7: because large angline models are all about scaling. The next 155 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 7: model is going to be ten times bigger GPT five. 156 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 7: Same thing with lamafoor. And you need more compute capacity 157 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,679 Speaker 7: and the only company that can provide it right now 158 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 7: is in Vidia. The Intel CPUs or the AMD gear 159 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 7: just doesn't work when it comes to doing this in 160 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 7: parallel computing. 161 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 5: Man, the revenue growth margin EPs, which data points can 162 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 5: be most watched by the markets as in video releases, 163 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 5: And you know when I look at it, actually I 164 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 5: look at margins, I look at the H twenty, I 165 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 5: look at the Chin specific AI accelerator Nvidia, you know, 166 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 5: and I know a lot of people are focused on that. 167 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 6: They're focused on black Well shipments, whatever that is. 168 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 5: Talk to us about you know what the smart analysts 169 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 5: on the street are looking for tonight when in VideA releases. 170 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 7: I would say more revenue and gross margin, and in 171 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 7: that order simply because right now they are undershipping demand. 172 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 7: I mean Nvidia has and it's by a lot. That's 173 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 7: why you see it in their pricing. That's why gross 174 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 7: margins are going up. But we haven't reached that point 175 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 7: where the market supply has caught up with the demand. 176 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 7: And it'll be the case tonight as well. 177 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 2: And loadload tomorrow night a special one hour Bloomberg Technology 178 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 2: on this juggernaut. What is your Man Deep Singh question 179 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 2: to Jensen? 180 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 7: Well, so I want to hear from Jensen how he 181 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 7: looks at the scaling laws for these large language models. 182 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 7: I mean, in the end, this wave is going to 183 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 7: have some sort of a CAPEX digestion, even though it's 184 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 7: a long tail when it comes to this capex investments 185 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 7: that will see with Generator AI there will be a 186 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 7: digestion phase. So what I want to know from Jensen 187 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 7: is what is he seeing in terms of scaling of 188 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 7: these large language models and when will we see a 189 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 7: pause in terms of evaluating the ROI on the investments 190 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 7: that companies are making. 191 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 2: Remind me where the money is in AI. I went 192 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 2: out on Twitter. They have this grac thing and I 193 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 2: searched my name and it was hilarious. What came up? 194 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 2: What is the actual use of AI that Man Deep 195 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 2: Singh sees. 196 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 7: I mean right now, if you talk to a developer, 197 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 7: they would rave about how much productivity jen Ai has 198 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 7: added to their workflow. And it's just doing simple things, 199 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 7: you know, simple searches that people were doing on Google 200 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 7: before the cop pilot brings it inside whatever editor that 201 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 7: they are working. So it's more about an assistant that 202 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 7: can do simple task like for an analyst, it's like 203 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 7: having an associate who can do basic searches, basic data gathering, 204 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 7: and that's quite powerful because it saves you so much time. 205 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 7: So we're not talking about high end you know, competition 206 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 7: that will change the world. Now, it's about doing simple 207 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 7: tasks in a way where it drives more productivity. And 208 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 7: we are seeing a lot of instances of that. 209 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 5: Man deep since August the seventh, when in video stock 210 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:47,839 Speaker 5: kind of you know, found its base there, the market 211 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 5: cap is two point four trillion today, just a few 212 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 5: weeks later it's three point one trillion dollars. That's a 213 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 5: seven hundred and fifty billion dollar gain in terms of 214 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 5: market cap. I mean, it's hard to wrap your head 215 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 5: around a number like that. I mean when the market 216 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 5: came off, when a video stock came off, that a 217 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 5: lot of people lose money. Do they have short term 218 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 5: memory loss? I mean, like, how can it snap back 219 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 5: so quickly? I mean seven hundred and fifty billion, that's 220 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 5: mega millions on steroids, Tom, I mean, how do you 221 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 5: quantify that? 222 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 7: That just goes to show what kind of an investor 223 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 7: base they have. Yeah, and if I was Jensen, these 224 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,439 Speaker 7: are not the kind of investors I want to have 225 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 7: because I want, you know, investors who will be part 226 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 7: of the long term story. And we know the long 227 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 7: term story is quite strong when it comes to Nvidia 228 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 7: and generate a AI. But clearly there are people who 229 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 7: are trading the stock and that's where you see a 230 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 7: forty percent round trip for no reason. 231 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 2: Do they have any Apple characteristics of use of cash, 232 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 2: of perchance dividend growth, or even with all that cash 233 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 2: coming in fifty five cents in the dollar, share buyback. 234 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 7: Probably a buyback could happen, but they just did a 235 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 7: stock split, so you know, I find it hard to 236 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 7: believe that they will be buying back their stock at 237 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 7: this phase when they are growing, you know, forty fifty percent. 238 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 7: The growth rates will taper in the second half next year, 239 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 7: but clearly a high growth company like Nvidia, they have 240 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 7: so much room to invest, they'll probably be looking for 241 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:12,959 Speaker 7: some acquisitions. 242 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 2: September nine, Apple out the new toy. Your opinion of 243 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 2: the Act of September nine. 244 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 7: I mean it's huge because when we talk about deploying 245 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 7: generative AI, the number one real estate is your phone, 246 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 7: and Apple just has to capitalize on doing that. They 247 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 7: don't have their own large angreg model, but they own 248 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 7: the distribution when it comes to, you know, the smartphone 249 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 7: base that they have, and that's where you know, deploying 250 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,319 Speaker 7: Jenai on phone is a lot more powerful than deploying 251 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 7: Jenai on the cloud. And I think Apple can show 252 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 7: that on September. 253 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 6: Man, deep, where are we in the semi cycle? 254 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 5: I mean seriously, I mean like we saw a lot 255 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 5: of stockpiling or semiconductor chips after COVID, after the pandemic 256 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 5: you know by China, and you know the sanctions obviously 257 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 5: due to the trade war, so a lot of noise there. 258 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 5: I'm here is where you believe we are in the 259 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 5: semiconductor cycle. 260 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 7: I mean I pay a lot of attention to the 261 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:09,559 Speaker 7: lead times. When the lead times start to compress in semiconductors, 262 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 7: that's when you know you're a closer to an end 263 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 7: right now. The lead times aren't compressing. Even though TSMC 264 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 7: is expanding capacity, the lead times are still growing. In fact, 265 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 7: there are delays off, you know, producing black leaves, so 266 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 7: we don't have that insight yet. 267 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 2: Brilliant Mandy, thank you so much. Bendy's singing, they're an 268 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 2: in video. 269 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 7: Ed. 270 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 2: Your Denny joins us, your DNNY research ed. You have 271 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 2: a lonely call if you go out not eighteen months, 272 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 2: but seventeen months, sixteen months, who's counting? You have an 273 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 2: interpolated extrapolation of the SPX to Dow fifty thousand, one 274 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 2: hundred and six, which is up twenty one point five 275 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 2: percent out sixteen months. 276 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 3: How lonely do you feel? 277 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 2: How lonely is your bullishness on a in our stock market? 278 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 8: Certainly more people that are optimistic about the outlook for 279 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 8: the economy there there were back in twenty twenty two, 280 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 8: In early twenty twenty two and through twenty twenty three, 281 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 8: we work pretty lonely with the idea that there wouldn't 282 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 8: be a recession. And that was definitely a contrary call because, look, 283 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 8: it was logical to expect that with the FED raising 284 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 8: interest rates from a FED funds rate of zero to 285 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 8: five andred quarter percent, that that kind of tightening would 286 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 8: cause a recession. We argued that we were in enrolling 287 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,239 Speaker 8: recessions that were impacting the various sectors of the economy 288 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 8: without taking us down. And we argued that the consumer 289 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 8: was fundamentally resilient, that this idea that they'd run out 290 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 8: of excess savings missed the point that there were what 291 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 8: seventy million baby boomers with seventy five trillion dollars of 292 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 8: retirement assets and the retiring. 293 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 2: I mean I got up one hundred and twenty eight 294 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 2: percent from the pandemic low. Here when we get to 295 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: Dow fifty thousand again, this is off sixty six thousand something. 296 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 2: Edgar Denny's most optimistic call for twenty twenty six. Tell 297 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 2: us your confidence in your X axis, the ability to 298 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 2: have pullbacks like we saw in early August, or just 299 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 2: the confidence of out six months out, one year out, 300 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 2: fourteen months. 301 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 8: Well, I think the market has demonstrated not only that 302 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 8: it's a bull market, but it's a it's a very 303 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 8: supercharged bull market. I think what's supercharging that is there's 304 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 8: still a tremendous amount of liquidity in the financial system. 305 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 8: You know, the increase in indust rates encouraged a lot 306 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 8: of people to pile into money market mutual funds. So 307 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 8: we have a record six trillion dollars in money market 308 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 8: mutual funds, and two and a half training of that 309 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 8: is retail, and is the Fed lowers interust rates that money. 310 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 8: Some of that money will pour into the stock market 311 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 8: and the into the bond market. So you know, every 312 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 8: time the market goes down, look at what happened in 313 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 8: early August. The market had a panic attack and it 314 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 8: didn't last very long, and we basically did a ben 315 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 8: you jump, and we just rebounded completely. 316 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 2: Damien says, if you get an Edgeyard Denny end of 317 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 2: twenty six call which interpolates over to Dow fifty thousand, 318 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 2: is there talking point? That's thirteen point four percent per 319 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 2: year from the pandemic bottom when you were the only 320 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 2: one I know that wasn't assent in cash. 321 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 5: Edgar Denny, you wrote the book on central bank balance 322 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 5: sheet finance. I mean, I've been reading your work on 323 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 5: this for many, many years. It really has helped me 324 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 5: kind of be a better analyst myself. You know, I'm 325 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 5: looking at the combined central bank balance sheets of the FED, 326 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 5: the ECB, the BOJ, and the PBOC. Right now twenty 327 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 5: five point seven trillion in assets, well off the high 328 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 5: of thirty one trillion we saw, you know, back in 329 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 5: twenty twenty two. At what point does the ship stop? 330 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 5: I mean, I know these balance sheets are still relatively 331 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 5: large as a percentage of GDP, But what are your 332 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 5: thoughts here? I mean, at what point does something snap? 333 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 8: Well, you know, there's been a lot of talk. I've 334 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,400 Speaker 8: been doing this for over forty years and I can't 335 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,199 Speaker 8: tell you how many times people said this is going 336 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 8: to end badly. And I don't call people using the 337 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 8: expression when is it going to snap? But I think 338 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,640 Speaker 8: that's the same thing as when will it end badly? 339 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 8: And so far, you know, occasionally we've had corrections. Occasionally, 340 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 8: we've had bear markets. Occasionally we've had recessions. These things 341 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 8: really don't happen that often, right they and we get 342 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 8: past them. 343 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 6: Uh. 344 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 8: And anybody who was smart enough to get out at 345 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 8: the top of the stock market probably wasn't smart enough 346 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,400 Speaker 8: to get out to get in at the bottom. I mean, 347 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 8: it's it's a it's a tricky thing to get the 348 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 8: tops in the bottoms and I'm sort of in the 349 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 8: Professor Siegel camp, the Warren Buffett camp that says, uh, 350 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 8: you really got to stay stay in the market. Uh. 351 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 8: And I think where I've brought some value is I've 352 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 8: been pretty good at picking bottoms still working on tops. 353 00:17:58,560 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 6: Well, well, let me. 354 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 2: Review that October. There's been two October lows, twenty two 355 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 2: and twenty three. I'd call the twenty two low the 356 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 2: Yard Denny and Campora low. Between their combined ages, they 357 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 2: go back to George Washington and Ed Yard Denny and 358 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 2: Roelfhanka Pork completely different, both said shut up and by 359 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:18,919 Speaker 2: October of twenty two. 360 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 5: And Ralph alkmpora's chief market technical guy. I mean for 361 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,159 Speaker 5: anyone who doesn't know out there, but I'll say this. 362 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 5: You know what you called my attention to some years ago, 363 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 5: Ed is when you look at the four big central banks. 364 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 5: I'm talking to PBOC, not the Bank of England here. 365 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 5: You know, if you combine their balance sheets back in 366 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 5: twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, when they started to taper, and 367 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 5: you know, the growth in those balance sheets combined started 368 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 5: to decline, we saw hard landing. We saw a really 369 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 5: painful event back then at the end of twenty nineteen 370 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 5: into twenty twenty. Now we've been seeing the same thing, 371 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 5: but it's been going on since the middle of twenty 372 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 5: twenty two. I mean, so nothing is broken this time 373 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 5: to your point, But you know, how much further can 374 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 5: we go on with the global money supply contracting at 375 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 5: this pace? 376 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 8: Well, I think when you look at the central banks, 377 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,360 Speaker 8: and I'm looking at the I've had the Bank of Japan, 378 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 8: the ECB as the three main central banks that combined 379 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 8: the assets of you know, the pessimists during the bull 380 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 8: market that came after the Great Financial Crisis, the pessimists 381 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 8: were showing a chart of the combined assets of the 382 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 8: central banks versus the S and P five hundred and said, oh, look, 383 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 8: the only thing that's really driving this bull market is 384 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 8: all this liquidity. And you know, a couple of years 385 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,679 Speaker 8: ago they started to retrench on their quantitative easing, some 386 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 8: of them are doing they've been doing quantitative tightening. And 387 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 8: yet here we are at a record high and the 388 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 8: equal weight to SMP five hundred, and we're almost at 389 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,479 Speaker 8: a record high in the S and P five hundred. 390 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 8: So there's a lot going on here. It's not all 391 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 8: about central banks. It's also about people working hard in 392 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 8: companies and generating earnings and earnings driving the market higher. 393 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 6: Talking a bit of dollar weeks. 394 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:58,680 Speaker 2: Needed fifty of twenty six off the Leman low, five 395 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 2: hundred and ninety three percent, eleven point five percent per 396 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 2: year on the Dow Jones Industrial average. Edgard Denny, I 397 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,719 Speaker 2: got a really difficult question here, and I got very 398 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 2: strong feelings about this. You know, Damien mentions the fossilness 399 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 2: of Edyard Denny. It used to be Robert Stoveall on 400 00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 2: the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. There was 401 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 2: a girl named Maria who was the money on me 402 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 2: that invented the clothes. I mean Maria single had good 403 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 2: morning to Marie. I don't know where she is. 404 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 6: She's she takes off day Sama. They related Robertson. 405 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, Sam is Robert's son. 406 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 6: Really, Maria takes a whole month of August off. 407 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 3: She's a she's that huge. 408 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,960 Speaker 2: But anyways, Maria's out there doing her thing. Edgar Denny's 409 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,679 Speaker 2: on Wall Street week with lou Rukaiser, And. 410 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,880 Speaker 6: That was your total financial coverage. 411 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 2: Your Red Barons every Saturday morning is at their Red Barons. 412 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 2: And what is Mario Gabelli doing Edgar Denny, how do 413 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 2: we remain bullish in the financial media modern social media 414 00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 2: frenzy of twenty twenty four. 415 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 8: Well, I think the pessimism comes mostly from people who 416 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 8: are focusing on the biggest picture of macroeconomic policy. Washington 417 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 8: gets a lot of weight in their calculations, and uh, 418 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 8: I agree, it's hard to put much lipstick on that 419 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 8: pig in Washington, certainly on the fiscal side and on 420 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 8: the monetary side. I think they've done it pretty well 421 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 8: so far. But I am kind of critical of the 422 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 8: FED turning two dubbish on Friday when Paul gave his 423 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 8: speech at Jackson Hole. But I think what the pessimism 424 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 8: misses is the strength of the and resilience of the 425 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 8: US economy. It's the most powerful economy in the world. 426 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 8: It's highly diversified. Nobody does technology better than we do. 427 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 8: Maybe the Chinese are second, but many of their technologies 428 00:21:55,840 --> 00:22:00,160 Speaker 8: they basically ripped ripped off from us. But clearly we're 429 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 8: in the forefront of technology in the industrial sector. We're 430 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 8: getting better and better now that we're doing on shoring. 431 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 8: The financial sector is amazing. Nobody's got consumers like we do. 432 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 8: You know, when our consumers are happy, they spend. When 433 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 8: they're depressed, the spend even more. And so I think, 434 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 8: you know, real GDP is at an all time record high. 435 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 8: Real consumption per household? Is it an all time record high? All, 436 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 8: let's talk about you know, only a few people prospering. 437 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 7: Just it. 438 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 8: Can't work. It can't. An economy can't work where only 439 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 8: a few people prosper. And you can't have record real 440 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 8: GDP without a lot of people prospering. And that's what 441 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:43,160 Speaker 8: we're saying. 442 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 2: Edge R Danny damiensrs all fired up for some global 443 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 2: dollar questions. Let me get this in here before Damien 444 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,959 Speaker 2: takes off. To me Ed, I rarely do this, folks, 445 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 2: but in my optimism of the American experiment, to me, 446 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:05,639 Speaker 2: it is productivity. Productivity is a three ratio function. Keeping 447 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:11,360 Speaker 2: it simplistically, I've got capital dynamics, labor dynamics, and mister 448 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 2: Solo's total factor productivity. All of this work is off 449 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 2: Chad Jones. Now I think out at Stanford Edgar Denny 450 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 2: talk about our productivity, our complete mystery of it, and 451 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 2: when we're going to finally realize we're different. 452 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,719 Speaker 8: Well, a great rebound in terms of the growth rate 453 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,199 Speaker 8: it was two point nine percent on a year over 454 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 8: year basis last year, and the trend average has been 455 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 8: around two point one percent. I think we're heading towards 456 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 8: three and a half to four and a half percent 457 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 8: by the end of the decade. And I think that's 458 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 8: I mean, that's what's driving my rolling twenty twenty scenario. 459 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 8: It's my base case. It's not the only scenario that 460 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:57,119 Speaker 8: could unfold, but it's I give it a sixty percent probability. 461 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 8: And I think, again with pessimists tend to ignore and 462 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,120 Speaker 8: miss is that technology solves a lot of our problems. 463 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,399 Speaker 8: And our biggest problem right down on a global basis, 464 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:13,360 Speaker 8: is a shortage of relatively young workers. We've seen kind 465 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 8: of geriatric demographic profiles around the world as fertility rates 466 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 8: have gone down and people have aged, and that labor 467 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 8: shortage is particularly skilled young workers, is forcing companies to 468 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 8: augment the productivity of workers with technology. And we've really 469 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:35,879 Speaker 8: never had so much technology available that's so powerful as 470 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 8: we do today. And by the way that the technology 471 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 8: we have is no longer just about brawn, about making 472 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 8: things faster, carrying them faster. It's increasingly about the brain. 473 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,959 Speaker 8: The brain technology is the ones that make us smarter 474 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 8: are really taking off here. So I think when you 475 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 8: put it all together, I'm looking for a productivity growth 476 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:01,879 Speaker 8: boom this decade, the Roaring twenty twenties decade, and I 477 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 8: think it's already started. And I think it actually started 478 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 8: in twenty fifteen when productivity growth was zero point five 479 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 8: percent on a twenty quarter annualized trailing basis, and now 480 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 8: we're already at almost two percent. 481 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 5: Right, I have to ask you this. I mean, I 482 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 5: consider both of us to be card counters. We focus 483 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,879 Speaker 5: on central bank balance sheets, we focus on money supply. 484 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:23,959 Speaker 5: These are key inputs for our analysis, for a view 485 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,400 Speaker 5: of the market. But there's a huge gray market out there. 486 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 5: There's shadow banks, there's offshore money, there's crypto, there's China, 487 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,879 Speaker 5: North Korea, rush he India. How do you account for 488 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 5: that when you're trying to, you know, count cards and 489 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 5: beancount the world and money and liquidity, I mean, how 490 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 5: do you look at that? 491 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,880 Speaker 8: Well, again, I think we've all learned there's a lot 492 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 8: of moving parts and inflation, there's a lot of moving 493 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:50,560 Speaker 8: parts and forecasting the economy, the consumer. 494 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:50,560 Speaker 7: And so on. 495 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 8: So it's really one of the moving parts. I certainly 496 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 8: try as much as I can not to ignore the 497 00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,639 Speaker 8: global perspective when I try to forecast what's going on 498 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 8: in the US. As a matter of fact, one of 499 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 8: the reasons we predicted that there would be no recession 500 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 8: in the US and that inflation would still come down 501 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 8: is we saw what everybody else was saying but wasn't 502 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 8: connecting the dots, and that is as a recession in China, 503 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 8: as a depression in the property market, and they've been 504 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 8: exporting deflation to the world, and so we see that's 505 00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 8: been a big contributor in bringing down inflation rates. With 506 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 8: regards to the currencies, we remained positive on the dollar. 507 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 8: There's still a very strong up trend that started in 508 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,399 Speaker 8: twenty ten. I think the US came out of the 509 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 8: Great Financial Crisis in better shape and is restructured in 510 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 8: better shape than anybody else in the world. And so 511 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 8: we continue to overweight what we call the home portfolio 512 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,879 Speaker 8: versus the go global portfolio. 513 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 2: Urst and Slack emails and says good morning to doctoring 514 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 2: at an interest in Slack at Apollo Global Management. 515 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:01,680 Speaker 3: I look at Yard Denny. 516 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 2: It's the great gloom that's out there. And I'll say 517 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 2: every Friday afternoon, the gloom reappears, and all. 518 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,359 Speaker 3: That it's timeless. It's ageless. 519 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 2: I mean, ed you and I and my mother, remember 520 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,080 Speaker 2: Joe Grahamville. I mean, you know, just as one example, 521 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 2: it's always there. Speak ed Yard Denny to people that 522 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 2: struggle to have a growth optimism that literally almost like 523 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 2: new Testament, old Testament are back at a time where 524 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 2: there wasn't the dynamics of the American economy. Speak to 525 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 2: those cautious right now, Well, I. 526 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,120 Speaker 8: Think you were right to bring up the topic of productivity, 527 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 8: because productivity is very deaf. That makes everything better. It's 528 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:49,719 Speaker 8: a win win win situation. With the better than expected productivity, 529 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 8: you get better than expected really economic growth, which I 530 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 8: think we're seeing. With the better than expected productivity, you 531 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 8: get lower than expected inflation. I mean, it's still not 532 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 8: widely recognized that the recent inflation has come down so 533 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 8: dramatically and so sharply. Is because unit labor costs inflation 534 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 8: is down to zero point five percent on a year 535 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 8: over year basis, and that's the underlying inflation rate. And 536 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 8: that's because productivity is really a TuS comeback. Productivity allows 537 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 8: wages to rise faster than prices which has been actually 538 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 8: occurring for over a year now to the benefit mostly 539 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,720 Speaker 8: of lower wage workers, believe it or not. And then finally, 540 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 8: better productivity is great for corporate profit margins, which we 541 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 8: think is going to go to a new record high 542 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 8: in twenty twenty five and beyond. So you put it 543 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 8: all together, and I think the key is to look 544 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:49,239 Speaker 8: at technology lead productivity growth boom, which I think has 545 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 8: already started and will continue. 546 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 2: Ed generous of you to spend this half far with 547 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 2: us Edward or Denny there on a call and remind 548 00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 2: you that out to the end of twenty twenty six 549 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 2: has SPX six thousand plus. Call goes out to adow 550 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 2: A fifty thousand, the only one I know in the 551 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,959 Speaker 2: company they pronounce a seen rich correctly. Like Damian Sassar 552 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 2: is Will Kennedy joining us now for Queen Victoria Street. 553 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 2: Will Kennedy executive editor for Everything Known to Commodities in energy? 554 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 2: Will what price per barrel Brent does Saudi Arabia want? 555 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 3: I've lost track of that. 556 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: I think it's an excellent question. They probably be higher 557 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 1: than it is today, but I think that they are 558 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 1: going to have to think quite strategically over the coming 559 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 1: months and into next year about how they get it there, 560 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 1: because they have challenges in managing the market right now 561 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 1: and they have some decisions to make about how they 562 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,959 Speaker 1: want to do that. We're in a transition period right now, 563 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,719 Speaker 1: and you've seen this for some of the coverage from 564 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 1: US and elsewhere. We've had a tight summer in the 565 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 1: oil markets. Things have been shin on the ground, lots 566 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: of good demand from people driving and flying. But people 567 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 1: see it changing, and especially next year as we're geting 568 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five, there's increasing concern that the market 569 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 1: will be oversupplied. That's partly down to OPEC putting oil 570 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 1: into the market, but it's also down to in different 571 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 1: demand in some parts of the world and strong supply 572 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 1: from elsewhere. So how Saudi Arabia responds to that, Well, 573 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,480 Speaker 1: that's going to be the most important question during the 574 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 1: rest of this year. 575 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,320 Speaker 5: Well, I haven't been to TRIPLEI in quite some time, 576 00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 5: but you got to help me out here. Why are 577 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 5: we so concerned about Libya again? What is going on 578 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 5: on the ground and what's the impact on oil prices. 579 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 1: Well, Libya has been relatively stable in the last few years. 580 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: We're getting about a million bals a day out of Libya. 581 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,440 Speaker 1: The politics remain complicated, but everyone had found a working 582 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,040 Speaker 1: solution to keep the oil going despite the tensions between 583 00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,520 Speaker 1: the government and Tripoli and the powers in the eastern 584 00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 1: part of the country in Benghazi. Now that seems to 585 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 1: be falling down, the tensions seem to be rising and 586 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 1: in the east they can control most of the oil 587 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 1: export terminals, so they are using oil as leverage in 588 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: their battle with the central government in Tripoli, and it 589 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,400 Speaker 1: is clearly having an impact on markets. For all that 590 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 1: I said that people are wired about oversupply. Over the 591 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 1: last few days, clearly that threat to what is more 592 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,640 Speaker 1: than a million pounds a day of supply has rattled 593 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 1: traders and we saw we saw a jump up. So 594 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 1: I think it's a reminder that despite the overall balances 595 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 1: looking a little looser than they have been, that the 596 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 1: market also is at the mercy to geopolitical events across 597 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 1: the Middle East, and those haven't gone away well. 598 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 5: Well, I mean just today, I mean Goldman Saxy's Brent 599 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 5: averaging seventy seven dollars a balance twenty twenty five CD 600 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 5: group seeing you know, basically risks to their outlook and 601 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:57,960 Speaker 5: seeing a lower price for oil. 602 00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 6: But you know, I want to shift the gas here. 603 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:01,000 Speaker 6: I want to shift to Rush. 604 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 5: I want to shift to the Arctic LERG two right, 605 00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,120 Speaker 5: Russia's new gas terminal that started production. I believe what 606 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 5: is the impact on gas I mean, what is the 607 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 5: impact on gas markets globally from that? I mean like 608 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 5: there's been word that you know, there are you know, 609 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 5: tankers that are you know, offloading and then you know 610 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 5: doing all sorts of stuff in the Mediterranean Sea. You know, 611 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 5: and talk to us a little bit about what if 612 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 5: any impact that's going to have on energy prices going forward. 613 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:29,400 Speaker 1: Well, global gas markets remain fairly tight. There's plenty of 614 00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,440 Speaker 1: demand for LNG and going into the winter, I think 615 00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 1: there's the European winter, there's some concern that we may 616 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 1: have some tightness. There are a couple of immediate reasons 617 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 1: while that's taken place. Egypt, which is often expected, is 618 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,120 Speaker 1: a sort of swing sometimes the imports, sometimes exports. It 619 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 1: looks like it's going to keep importing. That surprised some 620 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: traders and that's tightened the market. And Brazil has also 621 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: drawn a lot of imports because it has weak hydropowers. 622 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 1: You've got those two things in the shorter term, long 623 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,840 Speaker 1: story short, still demand for Russian gas, so there it's 624 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,840 Speaker 1: finding its way to market through especially if you're LNG. 625 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,640 Speaker 1: We've continued to the energy go to yoape and the 626 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 1: Shenanigans that you mentioned, evidence that people are finding ways 627 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 1: to get that gas into the global market because the 628 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,000 Speaker 1: global market wants that gas. 629 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,960 Speaker 2: Well, this is tangential to the remit in London, but 630 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,959 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, from seed to Shining Sea, it matters. Corn 631 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 2: is cratering. It's under four dollars of bushel. I don't 632 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 2: know if that translates in London, but do we have 633 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:36,360 Speaker 2: a gloom within our soft's study at Bloomberg News that 634 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 2: corn could depress back under three dollars a bushel down 635 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 2: to two. I mean, how fragile is corn and wheat 636 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 2: and a boom year a bumper crop year in America. 637 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,680 Speaker 1: I think this is a trend globally that probably has 638 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 1: requires a little bit more attention in the last few years. 639 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,720 Speaker 1: As we after the invasion in Ukraine and that obviously 640 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 1: uphended global wheat markets. People got very upset about the 641 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 1: prospects for prices. I think that period in grain markets, 642 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,799 Speaker 1: and by that I mean wheat, corners you mentioned soy 643 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 1: that appears to be broadly over We are seeing some 644 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 1: good harvests. We are seeing markets well supplied across those 645 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,719 Speaker 1: three main crops, and prices are lower and seem to 646 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 1: be heading lower. So as we get into the time 647 00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 1: of year when people are looking at how much has 648 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 1: been bought in, especially in Russia and North America, yes, 649 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: crop markets appear weak, and I think obviously that's bad 650 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,759 Speaker 1: for the US farmers, but it is another reason why 651 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,120 Speaker 1: commodities pressures into inflation, perhaps less than they have been. 652 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 2: I mean years ago, Will Kennedy, Stewart Whiles, and Justin 653 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 2: Kerrigan they had me in a pub. They drank me 654 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,479 Speaker 2: under the table and they promised me. They said, Tom, 655 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 2: you've got to go to the Bloomberg and look at 656 00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 2: a semi large chart of inflation adjusted corn. 657 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:54,920 Speaker 3: So I actually did. 658 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 2: I want to take that over my overhead in Will Kennedy, 659 00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:01,759 Speaker 2: it's amazing. Back to the seventies, horn inflation adjusted is 660 00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:05,359 Speaker 2: ten dollars a bushel in today's dollars, and now it's 661 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:06,760 Speaker 2: just absolutely crater. 662 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 5: I mean, Tom, the Will and the boys play that 663 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 5: game when they're drinking their guinness where they have to 664 00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 5: take the first sip, and it has to be the 665 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 5: level of to be below the crest and the top 666 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,319 Speaker 5: of the guineas word, it's a big game out there. 667 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:19,560 Speaker 6: Will it is guys play that will? Am I wrong? 668 00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 6: Do you guys not do that out there? At the 669 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:22,360 Speaker 6: end of every year I. 670 00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:26,320 Speaker 1: Worked there, I think it's not sever I've done for 671 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,759 Speaker 1: a while. I think I can still manage it though, Lise. 672 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:30,879 Speaker 7: Lisa, It's July. 673 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 3: Will Kennedy, thank you so much. 674 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,600 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 675 00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:40,480 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 676 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:44,120 Speaker 3: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit 677 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:48,520 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show. 678 00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,640 Speaker 2: Weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our 679 00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,440 Speaker 2: global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast 680 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always 681 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:04,000 Speaker 2: Imloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.