WEBVTT - Markets Hit as Oil Tops $100

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner,

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<v Speaker 2>and today we begin in the oil markets, where prices

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<v Speaker 2>are soaring. This escalating tension in the Middle East has

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<v Speaker 2>prompted the US State Department to reportedly order American workers

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<v Speaker 2>at the US diplomatic mission in Saudi Arabia to leave.

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<v Speaker 2>The New York Times reports it's an indication that senior

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<v Speaker 2>US diplomats are bracing for a possible surge in violence

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<v Speaker 2>in the war with Iran. Now, major producers like the

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<v Speaker 2>UAE and Kuwait have reached storage capacity and so as

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<v Speaker 2>a result, they're now reducing production, joining Iraq, which has

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<v Speaker 2>already cut output down to about sixty percent. And at

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<v Speaker 2>the same time, the most important waterway for global energy markets,

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<v Speaker 2>the Strait of Horn Moves, is essentially closed. Joining US now.

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<v Speaker 2>As Bloomberg's Paul Dobson, he is executed an editor for

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<v Speaker 2>Asia Markets. Paul joins from our studios in Singapore. Thank

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<v Speaker 2>you so much for being here. This surge in oil

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<v Speaker 2>prices has sparked some heavy selling and Asian equity markets,

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<v Speaker 2>and the losses are quite dramatic. Aren't they.

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<v Speaker 3>Well.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that the situation has definitely become more tense

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<v Speaker 4>over the weekend as far as market watches are concerned.

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<v Speaker 4>We have Eran appointing Camini Junior as the new leader,

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<v Speaker 4>which doesn't suggest any sort of a pivot away from

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<v Speaker 4>a kind of hardline policy. We have signs of more

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<v Speaker 4>production getting shut in in the Middle East region because

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<v Speaker 4>it can't get out of the strait of Hormes as well,

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<v Speaker 4>and so that's leading to those sort of knee jerk

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<v Speaker 4>fears of scarcity of oil supplies in some parts of

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<v Speaker 4>the world, at least blockages in the refinery output, which

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<v Speaker 4>is also pushing up the likes of jet fuel diesel prices,

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<v Speaker 4>and the fear that that creates is twofold. On the

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<v Speaker 4>one hand, the inflationary fear because our higher oil prices

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<v Speaker 4>will push up costs right the way through the economy,

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<v Speaker 4>and secondary the fact that that will slow down growth

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<v Speaker 4>as well. So it's not just inflation but stagflation that

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<v Speaker 4>people are worried about, especially after the nonfarm payrolls number

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<v Speaker 4>that we had at the ends of last week, which

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<v Speaker 4>was deeply negative and troubling, when people had been assuming

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<v Speaker 4>that the US economy was still holding up relatively well.

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<v Speaker 2>So last week when we saw that massive sell off

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<v Speaker 2>in the COSPI, I think at one point we were

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<v Speaker 2>down twelve percent. A lot of the thinking was that

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<v Speaker 2>this was the result of forced liquidation because margin calls

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<v Speaker 2>had gone into effect and rather than pay into those

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<v Speaker 2>accounts to bring that level of equity up to the

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<v Speaker 2>required level, you just were forced to liquidate a position.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that playing out again, do you think today?

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<v Speaker 4>I'm sure that there will be the risk of that again. Yes.

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<v Speaker 4>The Korean traders love leverage, they love risk, and they

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<v Speaker 4>don't stop. They suddenly bought the dip in decent numbers

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<v Speaker 4>after that set off that we saw last week, and

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<v Speaker 4>say the fact that there's another down date may again

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<v Speaker 4>lead to some trader's hitting margin limits and being forced

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<v Speaker 4>to either put up more collateral or cut their positions.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think that it's probably the same across Asia

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<v Speaker 4>today because levels have implied volatility are likely to rise.

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<v Speaker 4>With the big moves that we're seeing in all markets.

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<v Speaker 4>That's going to lead to more demands for collateral across

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<v Speaker 4>the whole investment complex, which will again cause people to

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<v Speaker 4>seek to liquid ate. Not just the sort of holdings

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<v Speaker 4>that have done well already, but also the most liquid ones,

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<v Speaker 4>so that may be adding to the downward momentum on

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<v Speaker 4>things like bonds, for example.

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<v Speaker 2>Very difficult to find a haven in today's session. I

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<v Speaker 2>mean US treasuries, which are normally considered to be a haven,

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<v Speaker 2>not the case today. To go back to the point

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<v Speaker 2>that you just made about rising inflation that's being reflected

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<v Speaker 2>in US bond yields, we have the precious metals that

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<v Speaker 2>are showing weakness. I think spot gold is down around

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half percent we speak silver more so.

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<v Speaker 2>The only thing that seems to be positive at the

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<v Speaker 2>moment is the dollar. Can you help me make sense

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<v Speaker 2>of that.

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<v Speaker 4>The dollar has been performing well as that haven of

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<v Speaker 4>choice during the term or that we've seen over the

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<v Speaker 4>last week or ten days, partly because of its deep liquidity,

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<v Speaker 4>partly because of its relatively high interest rates in the

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<v Speaker 4>idea that the FED isn't going to be cutting anytime soon,

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<v Speaker 4>and partly because as a net exporder of both oil

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<v Speaker 4>and natural gas, the US is not in a completely

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<v Speaker 4>disfavorable position right now, and relative to the rest of

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<v Speaker 4>the world, maybe looks a little bit better off in

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<v Speaker 4>some respects and so people are going to that as

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<v Speaker 4>a kind of place where they would prefer to have

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<v Speaker 4>their money right now. Partly, you know, it's that cleanest

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<v Speaker 4>dirty shirt kind of a thing that we've heard before,

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<v Speaker 4>where if you look at the rest of the world,

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<v Speaker 4>do you think, well, you know, where's to write at

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<v Speaker 4>this moment in time, And so that's where the cash

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<v Speaker 4>will tend to flow. And it's not, as you said,

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<v Speaker 4>it's not the government bond market, but it's you know,

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<v Speaker 4>the money markets where the cash is basically sloshing around

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<v Speaker 4>are kind of unallocated.

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<v Speaker 2>Basically, I'm curious as to whether or not anyone is

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<v Speaker 2>talking about private credit today in the APEC because last

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<v Speaker 2>Friday here in the US, we had chairs in Blackrock

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<v Speaker 2>down nearly eight percent after the firm curbed some withdrawals

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<v Speaker 2>from one of the private credit funds that Blackrock operates.

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<v Speaker 2>You and I have spoken about this in the past,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm wondering whether or not it's even part of

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<v Speaker 2>the conversation today or whether it's being obscured by everything

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<v Speaker 2>that's happening in the oil market.

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<v Speaker 4>It has really come across my radar particularly, But I

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<v Speaker 4>think that the reasons for that are two For one. Yes,

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<v Speaker 4>obviously the noise from the rise in crude oil prices

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<v Speaker 4>is kind of canceling everything else out at the moment.

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<v Speaker 4>But also in Asia, private credit not quite such a

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<v Speaker 4>big deal as the rest of the world, and so therefore,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, as we move into the usday, maybe those

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<v Speaker 4>concerns come up again as well. But what I will

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<v Speaker 4>say is it certainly doesn't help the bigger macro picture.

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<v Speaker 4>When we have that, plus the AI disruption worries that

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<v Speaker 4>have been weighing on traders minds in recent days and weeks,

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<v Speaker 4>along with the backdrop of the crisis in the Middle

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<v Speaker 4>East that we're seeing right now, creates a toxic cocktail

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<v Speaker 4>for global markets.

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<v Speaker 2>No doubt about that. And I think one of the

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<v Speaker 2>key questions at this point that's so far been unanswered

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<v Speaker 2>is you know, what could the duration of this conflict be?

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<v Speaker 2>Are people talking about worst case scenarios on calls today

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<v Speaker 2>that you've maybe have been privy to.

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<v Speaker 4>I think what we learned over the weekend is Iran

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<v Speaker 4>seems to be doubling down when you look at the

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<v Speaker 4>appointment of the leader, when you look at where the

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<v Speaker 4>missiles have been going. For all that, we heard a

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<v Speaker 4>bit of an apology, it doesn't seem to have changed anything.

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<v Speaker 4>The fact that a desalination plant was hit in Bahrain

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<v Speaker 4>was seen as a negative thing if it means that

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<v Speaker 4>more civilian infrastructure may be targeted. Israel hit some of

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<v Speaker 4>Iran's crude oil infrastructure as well. And I think on

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<v Speaker 4>top of that, you know, we heard from Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 4>in a tweet saying one hundred dollars a barrel oil

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<v Speaker 4>for a short period of time is a reasonable price

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<v Speaker 4>to pay in order to you know, secure the goals

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<v Speaker 4>that the US has in Iran. So it also doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>seem like he's immediately panicked by that move. So the idea,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, the thing that people have in the back

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<v Speaker 4>of their mind, will the US president at some point

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<v Speaker 4>retreat having escalated, doesn't really sound like he's backing down

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<v Speaker 4>right at this moment in time at all. And so

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<v Speaker 4>that does make people concern that there will be a

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<v Speaker 4>much longer term war here. So I think that you

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<v Speaker 4>have that on the on the side of pointing to

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<v Speaker 4>longer conflict, I think on the flip side of that,

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<v Speaker 4>you could say, well, if you look at the crude

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<v Speaker 4>oil curve, it's still in very, very steep backwardation, which

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<v Speaker 4>means the prices for the back end of this year

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<v Speaker 4>are still down at about seventy dollars a barrel, suggesting

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<v Speaker 4>that people feel that once you know that this situation

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<v Speaker 4>is resolved, the price of oil could fall off again

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<v Speaker 4>quite rapidly.

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<v Speaker 2>So President Trump and Chinese President and Chi Jinping are

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<v Speaker 2>set to meet in the next couple of weeks. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you have a sense of what this conflict in Iran

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<v Speaker 2>may do to that meeting?

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<v Speaker 4>What I will say is that all the noise that

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<v Speaker 4>we're hearing out of China at least has been very

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<v Speaker 4>positive still in terms of the setup for this meeting,

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<v Speaker 4>talk about this being the start of a reset and

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<v Speaker 4>and a longer term kind of stabilization in relationships. So

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<v Speaker 4>it doesn't sound like China is going to raise this

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<v Speaker 4>as a particularly big issue or some reason that would

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<v Speaker 4>in some way holt those talks stop those talks from

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<v Speaker 4>taking place. Think that there are some initial meetings planned

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<v Speaker 4>had come up in the next couple of weeks as

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<v Speaker 4>well to lay the groundwork for that. So far, actually,

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<v Speaker 4>the signs there as something of a thoring of a relationship.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think that if you look at what China's

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<v Speaker 4>markets have been doing. They've been relatively well insulated actually

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<v Speaker 4>from what's happened so far in Iran and the oil

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<v Speaker 4>market and that tension. So the interesting if when you're

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<v Speaker 4>talking about haven's where the actually China emerges as another

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<v Speaker 4>place where people have relative confidence compared to some of

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<v Speaker 4>the more excessive news that we're seeing, for example in

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<v Speaker 4>career in Japan today.

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<v Speaker 2>What about the story in India? Last week, we had

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<v Speaker 2>reporting that indicated that Russia was going to be granted

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<v Speaker 2>some privileges to be able to sell crude oil to India.

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<v Speaker 2>Now that had been a line that President Trump had

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<v Speaker 2>drawn previously, pressuring Indian Prime Minister Modi not to buy

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<v Speaker 2>any more Russian crude. He seems to have reversed himself,

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<v Speaker 2>just perhaps temporarily, given the what's going on, the ructionans

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<v Speaker 2>happening in the oil market. Do we know anything more

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<v Speaker 2>about what's going on with India?

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<v Speaker 4>As he said, they were very quick to take advantage

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<v Speaker 4>of that and to lock in some purchases of the

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<v Speaker 4>Russian oil which has been floating around on chips not

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<v Speaker 4>too far away, so they're able to take some deliveries,

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<v Speaker 4>which is very good news because they need to get

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<v Speaker 4>those refineries running and to continue to have oil flowing

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<v Speaker 4>through the economy. I think across Asia there were signed

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<v Speaker 4>at the weekend of worries in various locations that there

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<v Speaker 4>may be fuel shortages, so not just the cost being

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<v Speaker 4>the concern, but actually the availability and so that at

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<v Speaker 4>least provides a little bit of a relief as far

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<v Speaker 4>as India is concerned at a quite important time of

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<v Speaker 4>year for the economy in terms of the crop rotations.

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<v Speaker 4>So that at least is one crumb of good news,

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<v Speaker 4>But it also speaks to just how kind of crazy

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<v Speaker 4>and mixed up this whole situation is right now, right Doug,

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<v Speaker 4>that you know you have to cut off your nose

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<v Speaker 4>to spite your face in a way by allowing some

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<v Speaker 4>step back from pollen see in one conflict in order

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<v Speaker 4>to see paper over the cracks that have been caused

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<v Speaker 4>by conflict somewhere else.

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<v Speaker 2>You're absolutely right about that, Paul, Thank you so very much.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Dobson, Executive Editor for Asia Markets, joining from our

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<v Speaker 2>studios in Singapore here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Welcome

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<v Speaker 2>back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner, and

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<v Speaker 2>now let's take a closer look at what those higher

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<v Speaker 2>oil prices mean for economies in the APEC. Chian Wang

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<v Speaker 2>is the chief Asia Pacific economist at the Vanguard Group,

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<v Speaker 2>and she spoke to Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts

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<v Speaker 2>and Avril Hong.

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<v Speaker 5>So, I wonder what is your take first, at one

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<v Speaker 5>hundred and ten dollars a barrel of oil, which we

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<v Speaker 5>are now within reach of, what's that going to mean

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<v Speaker 5>in terms of the scenarios for Asian economies both on

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<v Speaker 5>growth and inflation?

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning, Thanks for having me here today. I think,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, in terms of the macrow impact, I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>there is no doubt the higher oil price is actually

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<v Speaker 3>a saculationary shop, you know, to most of the economies.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, it's negative for economic growth and it's going

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<v Speaker 3>to lift the inflation higher. But I would say in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of the actual magnitude of the impact, it also

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<v Speaker 3>depends on how long the oil price will stay at

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<v Speaker 3>the current level, right, So that duration of the higher

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<v Speaker 3>oil prices actually matters as well. We estimate that, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>for Asian economies in general, because this region is prettily vulnerable,

0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.400
<v Speaker 3>because most of them are you know, like you rely

0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 3>heavily if not entirely on inputed oil and also heavily

0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:45.800
<v Speaker 3>reliant on the supply from Middle East. We do estimate

0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:49.000
<v Speaker 3>that every ten percent of increasing oil prices will lead

0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:52.520
<v Speaker 3>to about to say, you know, ten to twenty base

0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:56.400
<v Speaker 3>points lower in GDP growth and twenty two forty based

0:12:56.400 --> 0:13:00.679
<v Speaker 3>point higher in headline inflation. So the had is in

0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:03.920
<v Speaker 3>there if the higher oil price is going to last.

0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:06.880
<v Speaker 3>But of course I would say every country is different.

0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 5>On that note, perhaps also worth unpacking. I mean, we

0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:18.920
<v Speaker 5>know how consumer's fear of inflation can also tend to

0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:22.640
<v Speaker 5>drive these price pressures. We're hearing in parts of Asia

0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:26.320
<v Speaker 5>people are lining up at palms. What is that aspect

0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:30.760
<v Speaker 5>going to mean for the pressures we see in prices.

0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:35.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think you know, there's like direct and indirect impact, right,

0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.640
<v Speaker 3>And I think what you're describing is also this kind

0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:41.839
<v Speaker 3>of inflation expectation, you know that actually can push the

0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:45.360
<v Speaker 3>prices for the up. But you know, as I mentioned earlier,

0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:48.440
<v Speaker 3>every country is different, right, because I think on one,

0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:51.960
<v Speaker 3>it really depends on whether the country has strategic reserves

0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:56.120
<v Speaker 3>that can help to stabilize the domestic price. And two,

0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.000
<v Speaker 3>I think it also depends on the government whether they're

0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:02.720
<v Speaker 3>going to intervene, right, either through subsidy has cut or

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.120
<v Speaker 3>you know, there's different kinds of pricing mechanism in different

0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:09.000
<v Speaker 3>economies that is going to limit the pass root from

0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:12.960
<v Speaker 3>crude oil prices to retail prices. And I think for

0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:16.560
<v Speaker 3>Asia the good news actually is that most of the

0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:20.440
<v Speaker 3>economy actually at this moment experience low inflation, right and

0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:24.680
<v Speaker 3>domestic demand is pretty weak. So on that front, I

0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:28.800
<v Speaker 3>think when central bank are looking at that, I don't think,

0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:31.840
<v Speaker 3>you know, high inflation is going to be their primary

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:35.240
<v Speaker 3>concern this moment, So to that extent, I don't think

0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 3>they are going to react to the higher inflation by

0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:41.360
<v Speaker 3>you know, aggressive tightening the money gary policy.

0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.720
<v Speaker 1>So to that point, do you think that it will

0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:49.400
<v Speaker 1>be some time before we see a reaction from central

0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:51.720
<v Speaker 1>banks in terms of how they tweak policy settings.

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:55.400
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think, let's put this way, regardless of what

0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:57.760
<v Speaker 3>they plan to do, right, either they plan to hide

0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:01.120
<v Speaker 3>or cut, I think at this moment, you know, all

0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:04.320
<v Speaker 3>central banks are going to be more cautious with any

0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:08.400
<v Speaker 3>move in the near term because of the heightened uncertainty,

0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:11.960
<v Speaker 3>right gio political uncertainty, higher oil prices. I mean, obviously

0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 3>stacuflation is show always going to put central bank in

0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 3>a very difficult situation. But you know, given the uncertainty

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 3>at this moment, I think their best strategy is just

0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.120
<v Speaker 3>the wait a little bit, right, you know, wait for

0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 3>the dust to settle. So I think you do see

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.720
<v Speaker 3>last week, for example, you know, central bank in Malaysia

0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:37.240
<v Speaker 3>they actually turned you know, Modovis and then you know,

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:39.800
<v Speaker 3>like Singapore, right, we think they are actually the more

0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 3>hokish one in this region. I don't think they are

0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:45.440
<v Speaker 3>in the rush to titan. Central banking India and No

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:49.320
<v Speaker 3>Korean probably will stay on an extended pause. UH and

0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.080
<v Speaker 3>central banking in Thailand and Philippines they plan to cut.

0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:54.480
<v Speaker 3>You know, we expect them to cut, but we also

0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 3>think they probably also will take a little time to

0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:01.800
<v Speaker 3>observe what's going on before they you know, start the

0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 3>next cut.

0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:07.520
<v Speaker 1>When it comes to the PBOC settings and the Chinese government,

0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:10.640
<v Speaker 1>we know that China has large exposure to Middle East energy,

0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 1>but are there also strategies and buffers in place there

0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:16.880
<v Speaker 1>because we also know that they have pretty significant reserves.

0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:20.800
<v Speaker 3>Yes, I think you know, for China, we actually estimated

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:25.480
<v Speaker 3>the impact you know on economic growths will be rather limited, right,

0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:28.160
<v Speaker 3>you know, we only estimate about like five base points

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 3>lower growth for every you know, ten percent of oil

0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:35.840
<v Speaker 3>price increase. I think part of that is because China, one,

0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 3>as you mentioned, you know, a strategy reserve they have

0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:41.880
<v Speaker 3>been building over the past several years. And two, I

0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:46.360
<v Speaker 3>think China really diversify the you know, uh imports market

0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.360
<v Speaker 3>for oil. Right so when we talk about Middle East,

0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:54.600
<v Speaker 3>it's about forty percent of China's total you know, imported oil.

0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:57.000
<v Speaker 3>And the other thing is that in recent years, I

0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:00.240
<v Speaker 3>think China also you know, was moving very resent with

0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:05.080
<v Speaker 3>the green trans green transition, right, so those green energy

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:08.960
<v Speaker 3>actually is now accounting for twenty percent of China's energy

0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:12.840
<v Speaker 3>consumption compares to you know, fifteen percent in twenty ninety.

0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:16.080
<v Speaker 3>So I think all of that actually helped to alleviate

0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:19.760
<v Speaker 3>some of the impact from higher oil prices. And I

0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:22.920
<v Speaker 3>also you know, would expect that yes, physcal policy will

0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:28.399
<v Speaker 3>actually you know, be ready right to limit and you

0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:32.600
<v Speaker 3>know the impact on oil price, crude oil prices, the

0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:34.120
<v Speaker 3>impact on households.

0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:39.480
<v Speaker 5>Aside from that energy security angle, talk to us also

0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:43.600
<v Speaker 5>about the trade angle, given how the streets traffics pretty

0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:47.240
<v Speaker 5>much hold Asia's economies, many of them are you know,

0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:52.200
<v Speaker 5>reliant on exports realized.

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:55.600
<v Speaker 3>Yes. I think you know, at this moment, you know,

0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:59.199
<v Speaker 3>this kind of global supply shock, right is going to

0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:03.080
<v Speaker 3>a big you know, disruption to the potentially to the

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:06.600
<v Speaker 3>global supply chain. Right. So what does that mean, you

0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 3>know for the global trade further down the road, I

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:13.600
<v Speaker 3>think remains you know, something that we need to watch

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:17.040
<v Speaker 3>very closely. I think the whole at this moment for

0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:20.600
<v Speaker 3>a lot of people is that this conflict could be

0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:24.880
<v Speaker 3>rather short lived, may not last more than a few weeks.

0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:27.240
<v Speaker 3>Right then, in this case, I think the disruption to

0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:31.199
<v Speaker 3>the global economy global trade will be rather limited. But

0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:35.560
<v Speaker 3>I think if the conflicts and also you know, what

0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:40.000
<v Speaker 3>happens to the trait of hormus that actually sustained you know,

0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 3>more than just a few weeks, then I think that

0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:46.960
<v Speaker 3>the disruption to global economy and trade could be quite significant.

0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:51.160
<v Speaker 2>That's Chian Wang, chief Asia Pacific economist at the Vanguard Group,

0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:54.960
<v Speaker 2>speaking to Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud wattson April Hong,

0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:58.840
<v Speaker 2>bringing you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:03.640
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:07.200
<v Speaker 2>Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:11.600
<v Speaker 2>shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You

0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:15.760
<v Speaker 2>can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,

0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:18.879
<v Speaker 2>or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for

0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:22.520
<v Speaker 2>insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:26.679
<v Speaker 2>and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Bloomberg