WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 12 NFL Game (Ep. 391) 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:03.320 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.360 --> 0:00:06.360 your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pizapeta and happy 0:00:06.440 --> 0:00:10.160 Thanksgiving week everybody. It's week twelve. That means we've got 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:12.400 wall to wall football every day of the week. You 0:00:12.440 --> 0:00:14.280 want games on Thursday, and we'll give you game on Thursday. 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:16.680 About Black Friday, we want a Black Friday game, Sure 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:18.720 we'll get you that. We'll get you games on Sunday, Monday. 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:21.520 Everything forget it, all the football, all the food, all 0:00:21.520 --> 0:00:23.560 the leftovers, everything you can handle them, of course, to 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:25.560 help me break it all down as Pat fitz Morris, 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.800 my Patty Cakes and of course Sam Hopping as well 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:32.280 the mad scientists in the data lab. A little break 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:34.640 from the NBA and all the other things to do 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:36.680 and talk a little football here for Sam. And don't 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:38.800 forget everybody. We're still giving away free stuff. So if 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:41.519 you want a premium upgrade to Betting Pros, now is 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:43.519 the time to do it. Make sure you drop your 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:46.440 comments below, subscribe to the channel. Click that belt it 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:48.720 goes dings. You know every time a piece of content drops, 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:50.680 and if you're the big winner, that's how we're going 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:54.400 to notify you, so subscribe. Like the show. Be nice, 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:57.000 it's Thanksgiving, drop a little comment, and you can always 0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.800 give us a review as well. That's always appreciated. If 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.280 you're listening to the podcast wherever you get your pods, 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:05.000 drop a nice five star review. It's the holiday scenes 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:07.440 and it's time to do nice things. And let's start, 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:10.760 boys with the Thanksgiving games, because we've got some fun 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:13.399 ones here. The Green Bay Packers coming off a big victory. 0:01:13.720 --> 0:01:16.080 I know you two very excited, and let me start 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:20.000 there because I am angry. I promised that I would 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:22.800 lose my mind here on the show about the Chargers 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:25.400 last week, boys, I said, I'm confident in the Chargers, 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:28.360 and I felt dirty and wrong, and I was wrong. 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:31.479 It sucked. I'm mad. I'm mad at Brandon Staley, I'm 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:33.240 mad at the Chargers. I'm mad at the city of 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:36.479 Los Angeles, the whole thing. It was terrible, no good. 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:38.600 But the Green Bay Packers were good enough. They are 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.319 going to be underdogs though when they go to Detroit. 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:44.199 Troit's now eight and two after another big victory against 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:46.800 the Bears at home. This one's in Detroit. Seven and 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:48.560 a half is the number here on the Detroit side. 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:50.920 Forty six and a half over is the consensus line 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:52.920 you're getting on betting pros, and plus two eighty five 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:55.400 for the upset. Sam let's start with you on this 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:56.880 one here, because I already got to talk to fits 0:01:56.880 --> 0:01:59.320 about the Packers more this morning on our FP show. 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:01.000 I want to talk to you about the Packers. What 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.280 you saw. Obviously, Aaron Jones highly unlikely to play in 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:05.640 this game. I think we can all agree on that. 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:07.440 So what does this mean here for this number of 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:09.640 the seven and a half? And do you put any 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:13.760 sort of stock in what Andrew Erickson's been saying for 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:16.560 a few weeks now, which is ford Field might as 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:17.680 well be called Corsfield. 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.919 I don't know if I understand that reference, but as 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:23.440 far as. 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:26.200 The baseball reference, it means a lot of scoring. There 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:28.839 you go. I found the one spot there, the one 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:31.200 sport here where Sammy is not is up to speed. 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:34.280 Right. This is human, but it was pretty far out 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:38.040 of left field, and I wasn't quite quite expecting it. 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:43.200 But in any case, the Aaron Jones interest injury is interesting. 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:47.080 I think the way that Green Bay wins this game 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:49.639 is attacking the lines through the air. That's part of 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.720 the probably the weakest part of their defense, and I 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.400 think that's honestly good because aj Dillon might be the 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:58.680 only running back available for the Packers in this game. 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:02.880 Their third string running back also got injured on Sunday. 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:07.840 But I do think that Detroit, especially after the lesson 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:12.600 inspiring outing from Jared Goff with three interceptions, is going 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:17.440 to lean into the run, which has been a struggle 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:21.120 for green Bay to stop. They allow a five point 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:23.800 three percent explosive rush rate this year, which is the 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:26.440 fourth worst in the league. Detroit has a negative ten 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:29.880 percent pass right over expectation in two of their last 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:32.760 three games. Detroit, I think has the coaching advantage in 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:36.080 this game, so I expect Detroit to just sort of 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:39.200 play a little easier run the ball with Montgomery and 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:44.240 Gibbs and come away with this. If they're going to limit, 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:46.920 if they're able to limit green Bay to a couple 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:49.760 of three and out drives and then just pound the 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:53.720 clock by running the ball, then I expect Detroit to 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:56.360 be able to cover this. I had Detroit min Is 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:58.200 state for my numbers that it's at seven and a 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:00.920 half right now, So I'm I'm leaning Detroit. 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:03.920 Yeah, I'm on the Detroit lean as well. Pat, how 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:06.200 about you. I just feel like Detroit sort of smells 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:08.040 that they can win this division and lock things up, 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:09.560 and this is a big game for them in order 0:04:09.600 --> 0:04:12.000 to really solidify them at the top of that North. 0:04:12.120 --> 0:04:12.280 Oh. 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.840 If I was going to bet Detroit, and I'm kind 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.200 of leaning that way myself, I would want him at seven. 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:19.080 Man, I do not like seven and a half. 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:22.279 So you know, it's funny if you look at Massy 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:23.599 Peabody rankings, which. 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:26.000 Are a very useful tool for betters. 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:29.240 By the way, Massy Peabody had the Alliance as being 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:32.000 not quite three points better than the Packers on a 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:36.599 neutral field as of going into week eleven, So it 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:39.200 seems like based on that there might be value on 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:42.560 the Packers. I don't really buy it. I think what 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:44.599 I'm going to do is play the over Joe. You 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.159 made the cores field reference it might be apt here, 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.680 and especially the way this game sets up, the Packers 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:52.320 are going to have to lean on their passing game. 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:56.120 With no Aaron Jones a forty five and a half, 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:58.360 it seems kind of a high total for the Packers, 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:01.599 who are slow paced and not exactly explosive on offense, 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:03.719 but they're gonna be forced to throw, and we know 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.360 they don't defend the run well and the Lions might 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:08.960 be able to just run it down their throat. So yeah, 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:12.920 over is my leaning here, not real interest in either side. 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:15.640 And then numbers already jumping up to forty six and 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:17.719 a half and some spots. Still okay with that one. 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:19.719 Just yeah, I think so I'd played up to forty 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:21.479 all right, six and a half forty seven. 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:23.280 Maybe let's get. 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:25.039 To the next one here, the Dallas Cowboys seven and 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:27.720 three are hosting the Washington Commanders who lost to the Giants. 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:31.000 God what, let's not even get to that. Let's let's 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:33.279 talk about instead. The numbers, of course is double digits 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:35.719 minus eleven here for the Dallas Cowboys at home minus 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.360 one ten. The consensus line of betting pros is forty 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:40.080 eight and a half plus four to twenty five for 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:43.400 the Washington upset. I know we always get Sam Howell 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.280 plays up and down to the competition. This is one 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.520 of the play up to the competition. So pat do 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:50.520 you think he plays up to the competition and somehow 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:52.200 keeps this within the eleven or do you think the 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:56.640 Cowboys continue at home to just look like an offensive juggernaut, 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:59.280 which they have here ever since the buye. 0:05:59.040 --> 0:05:59.960 The Ladder Joe. 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:03.480 I think the Cowboys have done really well against lesser competition. 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.800 They are four and one against the spread against teams 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:10.279 who they've been favored by at least six points against, 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.680 and that doesn't even even include their forty to nothing 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:15.960 shall lacking of the Giants in Week one, where they 0:06:15.960 --> 0:06:18.760 were only favored by three and a half. So yeah, 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.440 I mean, I'm I'm gonna bet the Cowboys here to 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.680 you know, put Washington away. I mean, Washington showed their 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.599 true colors against the Giants. They were just terrible in 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.159 Week eleven. And it seems like this total is pretty 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:33.720 tall too, because I'm not sure if the Commanders are 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:36.160 going to do their part to push this game over 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:39.800 against that Dallas defense. And I mean, by the way, 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:42.159 like the total jump from forty seven and a half 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:44.120 on Sunday night to forty eight and a half on 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:49.840 Monday morning, Like I don't understand that. So like I 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:54.280 like the under a lot, I like getting that extra point. Yeah, 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:58.480 unless Dallas puts up a forty burger on the Commanders, 0:06:58.480 --> 0:06:59.719 I don't see this one going over. 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.160 That's the question, like if do they put up thirty five? 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:04.560 If they put up thirty five, Sam to me, I 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:06.560 think the forty eight and a half as well within range. 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.320 I think the Washington do their part in that. But 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:11.080 is there a certain aspect of this game that has 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:12.840 you interested in the early value? 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:17.000 Definitely taking Dallas with the points. They have six wins 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:20.960 this year by at least twenty points, which is just absurd. 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:25.400 Washington had did have six turnovers against the Giants this 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:28.920 past week, which is why I am now knocked out 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:32.680 of the survivor league that I was in. The Washington 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.960 rushing defense has played pretty decent lately. They haven't allowed 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:39.760 a success rate over forty percent since week eight. The 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:42.080 problem is Dallas is throwing a ton. They have a 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:45.400 sixty four point two percent neutral script pass right over 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:48.760 the last four weeks. Dak is just dealing. He is 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:52.640 going to carve up this Washington secondary more than the 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:55.280 turkey is going to be carved up in the kitchen. 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:58.320 There you go, all right, let's go to the night 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:00.400 game here San Francisco looking great. They're to go on 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:03.200 the road at seven and three. There seven point favorites 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:05.800 there in Seattle. Now Gino Smith unlikely to play probably 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:08.000 in this game at this point, dealing with that Tricep 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:11.040 injury and that tough loss there to the Rams. Forty 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:12.440 two and a half is the number at minus one 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:15.120 ten the consensus line of VP for the Seattle upset, 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:17.720 it's plus two to fifty. Sam, do we see the 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.880 forty nine ers just continue to roll because it feels 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:24.200 like coming out of that buy this is a rejuvenated 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.080 San Francisco team and that pass rush now with Bosa 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:30.440 and Chase on either side, is pretty ferocious. And Seattle 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:33.200 not only down Gino but also probably down Kenneth Walker 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:34.480 too for the foreseeable future. 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:37.600 Yeah, this one's got a lot of injury things to 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:40.000 keep an eye on over the next couple of days. 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:43.239 I really hope we get Gino in this game. Otherwise 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:45.400 that trip to fan is probably going to hit a 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.320 little harder than normal. Early in the. 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:52.160 Evening, Sammy's got jokes today, Pat I means he is ready, 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:53.760 he has done, he is ready for a break. 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:56.640 Well when I mean this is the week to get 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:59.520 the Thanksgiving puns in, so you got to take advantage. 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:03.240 But I think doing your part, I think Gino might 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:05.760 actually play in this game, given that he came back 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:09.160 in the last drive of the game against Los Angeles 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:12.760 this past week. That said, I love San Francisco minus 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:13.640 six and a half here. 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:16.800 Yeah, I've seen the number move to seven here in 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:18.800 a lot of spots already. I'm still comfortable. I think 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:21.280 they win this game by double digits. Pat like, this one, 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:22.880 to me is one of the best early lines of 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:24.000 the week. I want to jump on it right now 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.560 because whether Gino plays or not, he's not one hundred percent, 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:28.600 So I just believe in San Francisco right now. What 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:29.120 are your thoughts? 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:32.120 Yeah, and these teams played three times last season, Joe 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:34.160 and the forty nine Ers won all three in the 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:38.800 average margin victory was fifteen points six points, so I 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:43.280 could not possibly take Seattle here. And I kind of 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.319 like the over based on the hope largely that Gino 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:48.959 does play. I mean, I think both of these teams 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:51.720 are maybe a little better on offense than they are 0:09:51.720 --> 0:09:54.360 on defense. The forty nine Ers are first in offensive 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:58.960 DVA the Seahawks eleventh, and in defensive DVA the forty 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:02.000 nine Ers are tenth the Hawks twentieth. So I think 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.760 we're gonna get points in this game if Gino plays, 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:06.720 and maybe even if it's Drew Locke. 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:12.040 Don't forget tomorrow, everybody. We've got a Thanksgiving special Andrew 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:15.040 Erickson myself breaking down all the games and the Black 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:18.160 Friday Game as well, for not only the games in 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.360 between the betting stuff, we've got the prop stuff. We're 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:22.400 gonna do all of it here our favorite parlays of 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:26.200 the day too. To enjoy the Thanksgiving games and have 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:28.480 a little action there on the side. And of course 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:30.640 the Black Friday Game a new tradition here. We'll see 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.600 how this one goes. And of course the league has 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:34.719 to give us more Jets, because if there's one thing 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:38.120 I can't get enough of, it's standalone New York football. 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.120 Between the Jets and Giants. One of those two teams 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:42.320 has got to be a standalone game, right, So let's 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.959 talk about it. The Jets obviously underdogs, because well, Zach 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:47.880 Wilson is horrible and the Jets offense is future. They 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:51.280 are eight point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins. Forty one 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:53.120 is the number for this one. The Jets on the 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:56.320 money lines plus three hundred. Pat Look, I'm taking the 0:10:56.360 --> 0:11:00.400 Dolphins here, this isn't double digits because they're giving respect 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.760 to the Jets defense. But I don't want to give 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:05.760 the Jets too much respect. I think this eight is 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:08.160 so comfortable. I think Miami wins this one by ten 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.640 or more. Your thoughts in this contest. 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:14.040 I totally get it, Joe. The last time we wrote 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:16.880 off the Jets for lack of offense, they rebounded in a 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:19.040 pretty big way. Like in weeks two and three, the 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.920 Jets put up ten points against Dallas, ten points against 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:24.480 the Patriots. Then in Week four they hung tough with 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:27.600 the Chiefs and lost twenty three to twenty covered easily, 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:30.480 and then they won three straight, beating the Broncos, Eagles, 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:33.560 and Giants. The one thing the Jets do really well 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.480 is blanket wide receivers, and if they are able to 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:39.200 keep Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle under wraps, maybe they 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:42.440 can cover this number. So I'm kind of not interested 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:43.240 in either side. 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:45.960 I don't know. Dolphins just feels like a little bit 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:46.960 of a trap to me, Joe. 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:51.160 I just can't shake that feeling, and like this game 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.320 could conceivably play under forty one and a half or 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:55.559 forty one or whatever. 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:56.080 It's at now. 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.599 That's interesting POV. Yeah, like using POV, Sam, what do 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:00.880 you think about that potentially on the under of this game, 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:03.920 because I mean, you know the Jets are going to 0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:06.360 do their part there, like you know that's going to happen. 0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:09.559 So if they are a little lackluster or if they 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:11.880 are a little bit you know, slow here in the 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.680 shorter week preparation wise, what do you make of maybe 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:16.160 the under being the best play in this game? 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:21.120 Sam, Yeah, I think it's certainly in play. Again, there's 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:25.000 some injury concerns here. Mackai Becton got hurt. I think 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:29.960 the Jets have now already used thirteen different offensive line combinations, 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:34.120 which is not good folks. So I think that is 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:37.240 going to contribute to things. The Miami defense has been 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.000 improving quite a bit as well. They allowed as success 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.880 rate over fifty percent in three of the four first 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:44.960 four weeks of the season, but they have allowed just 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:50.120 two games over a forty percent success rate since Week five, 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:54.160 so they're getting better. Jalen Ramsey being there helps a ton. 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:59.080 Vic Fangio sort of leaning into that role as well. 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:03.200 We've seen Miami with a couple of injuries as well, 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:06.240 Devon a Chan I'm sure if he's going to be 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:09.480 able to return. Tyreek Hill left the game but did 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:13.560 come back, so that is something to monitor. It seems 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:18.319 like he's going to play this week. But the Jets 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:22.440 defense is I think they showed a little bit of 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:27.480 some holes against the Bills this past week. And the 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:29.920 Dolphins I think are as good of, if not a 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:34.720 better offense than the Bills right now. So the under 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:39.679 is a little scary, but I understand the logic behind it. 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:42.800 All right, fair enough, let's go to the next one here, 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:44.160 and this is gonna be a fun game. This is 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:46.360 basically a playoff game. We're going to jump into the 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:49.240 Houston tech and six and four hosting the Jaguars, So 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.240 this one's practically a pick him on betting pros. Right now. 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:56.079 You've got Jacksonville's one point favorites forty seven is the number, 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:58.079 and you've got Houston at minus one oh five is 0:13:58.080 --> 0:13:59.480 the best spot you can get it right now on 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:02.280 the money line, Sam, are you ready to put your 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:05.000 faith in the Houston Texans at home in a big spot, 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.480 in a big game that really will determine their faith 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:10.440 or is it time for the Jaguars to just start 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.600 handling their business after a shaky middle of the season. 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:16.960 Here for them, this is I mean, this is going 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:19.400 to be a fascinating game. I'm really excited for this one. 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:19.560 This. 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:23.160 If the Texans win, they have the front seat in 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:27.000 winning the AFC South, Which if you had said that 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:30.920 three months ago, people would have been laughing at you. 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:35.120 But c J. Straud this past week did show that 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:37.480 he is human. He had probably his worst half of 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:42.520 football through three interceptions on Sunday. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence had 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.680 probably his best game of the season so far, I 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.480 believe through four touchdown passes at least accounted for four. 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:54.800 I don't have a lean on this one. I think Texas, 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:57.680 excuse me, the Texans. I made them as a half 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:03.440 point favorite, so basically a pick them here. I slightly 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:07.600 lean towards the Texans just because they are at home again. 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.440 You're buying them sort of with a little bit of 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:15.640 depressed value after the lackluster offensive performance. But this one, 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.840 I think I might lean towards the under on this 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:23.640 one as well. Jacksonville plays pretty slow, they do rush 0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:25.760 the ball a little bit, and they're bad at rushing 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:28.600 the ball. As well, so I lean towards the under 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:30.800 and hoping for a great game. 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.520 All right, Pat, your thoughts, This should be in theory 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.320 one to watch this week. This is definitely a game 0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:40.720 that has massive playoff implications and obviously for this Division two, 0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:43.280 as Sam laid it out, you know, if Houston handles 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:45.440 their business, their schedule is a bit more favorable. So 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:47.200 the pressure I think is on the Jaguars. How do 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:47.880 you think they respond? 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:49.800 Yeah? Fun matchup for sure, Joe. 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.720 The Jaguars are one of my favorite bets of the week, 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:57.160 and since since the beginning of October they have covered 0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:59.920 in six of seven games, failing only to do so 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:03.320 in that blowout loss to the forty nine ers coming 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:06.760 out of their buy. So I think the Texans have 0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:10.160 just been slightly overvalued in the betting market for weeks. 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:11.080 And I get it. 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.640 I mean they are fun as can be, but I 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:20.480 think the spreads have sort of overcooked the numbers on 0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:23.160 the Texans a little bit. So, like I think they're 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:26.560 getting maybe two points a week that they probably shouldn't 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:29.920 be getting. So I think the Jags are of value here. 0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:32.160 I think the Jags are going to win straight up. 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:35.000 They're the better team, and yeah, I think there's a 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:36.480 lot of value on them this week. 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.400 Okay, fair enough here, let's go to the next one. 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:42.400 Here on the slate, we've got the Pittsburgh Steelers somehow 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:46.560 at six and four and the Joe Burrow lists Cincinnati 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.560 Bengals this one right now, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.440 by one. That's where the spread's at minus one ten. 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:54.360 You've also got thirty four and a half as the 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:56.360 over under for this one minus one oh five for 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:58.800 the Bengals to win. Now, we'll see how the Bengals respond. 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:00.880 Without Joe Burrow, I know, no one really holding their 0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:04.359 breath with excitement. Pat, I'm just running right to the 0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:06.520 under on this one, thirty four and a half. I mean, 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:08.800 with the way these two offenses might be looking, I 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:10.920 think that one still might be safe. What do you think? 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:14.879 Yes, thank you Joe for validating that opinion. Like a 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.639 lot of these games this week with super low totals, 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:19.960 I'm like, yeah, I'll take the under. 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:20.560 I can see it. 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:24.359 And this one opened with the Bengals favored by one point, 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:28.080 which was just astonishing. As miserable as the Kenny Pickett 0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:31.919 Matt Canada experience has been for Steelers fans, like, how 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.879 could the Bengals open as a favorite with Jake Browning 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:40.200 at quarterback? So man morale and the Bengals locker room 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.080 just can't be real high at the moment after losing 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.040 Joe Burrow for the rest of the season and knowing 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:47.720 that any title aspirations you had are pretty much out 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:48.159 the window. 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:50.399 So I kind of like the Steelers here, and I 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:51.680 definitely like the under. 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:54.840 Okay, Sam, what do you like in this contest? 0:17:56.080 --> 0:18:00.520 I feel like Pittsburgh is the move here just given 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:03.160 their defense, but I do not trust Kenny Pickett at all. 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:07.080 Benjamin Solak from The Ringer posted a clip of all 0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:10.119 of Kenny Pickett's throws past the line of scrimmage this 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:15.400 past week, and it was forty four seconds of tortress 0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:21.840 video football. You know, there might be this whole Jake Browning, 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:26.200 you know, first start, does he catch Pittsburgh off guard 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:29.800 type stuff? I think, you know, whether t Higgins is 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:34.520 back in this game could make that a difference there too. 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:38.360 I'm staying away. I'd rather not look at their enough. 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:40.439 I still think that that under is I mean, especially 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.080 because the Kenny Picketts leough I think the under is 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.280 safe here. This is neither of these teams are offensive 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:49.119 juggernauts at this point in their season. The Carolina Panthers 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:51.600 also not necessarily an offensive juggernaut. They're one to nine. 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:54.960 They are three and a half point underdogs heading to Tennessee, 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:57.280 which feels about right here. Thirty seven is the number 0:18:57.520 --> 0:18:59.919 plus one fifty eight for the Panthers to get a VIC. 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.199 Now you're getting some value here, Sam on the money line. 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.240 When it comes to the Carolina Panthers in this game, 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:06.959 the question is do you have enough faith of them 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:08.920 to go and win a road game here in Tennessee? 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:11.680 Tennessee obviously with Levis, you know, it's been kind of 0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:13.439 spinning its wheels a little bit. What do you make 0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:17.840