1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to Worst Year Ever, a production of I Heart 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:23,639 Speaker 1: Radio Welcome Together Everything, Welcome Everybody to the Worst Year Ever, 3 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: the podcast about this year, which we jokingly declared would 4 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: be the worst year ever last year, and then three 5 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: days into the year, the president recklessly assassinated an Iranian 6 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,840 Speaker 1: general h and has brought the world of the precipice 7 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: of global chaos so off to a real great start. 8 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 1: That is an accurate description of what happened in the 9 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 1: first few days. I love it when my predictions come true, 10 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: our predictions. That's very satisfying. What I love is when, uh, 11 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: the tragic global events that will certainly cost a lot 12 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 1: of innocent people their lives all so retroactively make us 13 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,919 Speaker 1: have done a better job of naming our podcast that 14 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: that I like silver lining. I can't wait for the 15 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:14,839 Speaker 1: second week. How that who knows he could kill anybody? 16 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: He could? He could, he could, he could declare anybody 17 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:22,199 Speaker 1: a terrorist and kill them right there in the middle. 18 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: That is really The thing that isn't harped on enough 19 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 1: is that not only did we like collectively as a nation, 20 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: make President Donald Trump the president, but by doing so, 21 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 1: we declared that Donald J. Trump should have the right 22 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 1: to end all life on Earth, which is a cool 23 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: side effect of our system. True. Anyway, everybody's talking about Yeah, 24 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: everybody's talking about Iran right now and the risk of 25 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: war with Iran. And in the wake of Costum Suleimani's assassination, UM, like, 26 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: there were a bunch of anti war protests all throughout 27 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: the United States, as people basically said like hands off Iran, UM. 28 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: And I think that a lot of this is based 29 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: on some a mix of like terror, because we also 30 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: have PTSD from the way the protests against the war 31 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: in Iraq and then the subsequent war in Iraq went UM. 32 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 1: And I also think it's just sort of like everybody 33 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: so amped up all the time now that everything gets 34 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: taken to eleven And I wanted to try and provide 35 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: some context about number one, like what an actual invasion 36 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: of Iran might look like, UM and more to the point, 37 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: what I actually think um is more likely to happen 38 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: kind of in the wake of this as opposed to 39 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,399 Speaker 1: sort of the most apocalyptic kind of of theories. And yeah, 40 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: if you if you're like listening to people talk about 41 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: like what like the perspective of war with Iran, UM, 42 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: like one thing that gets brought up a lot, particularly 43 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 1: on Twitter, is the two thousand and two Millennium Challenge. 44 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: Um yeah, have you guys ever heard of this? Now? 45 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 1: Not before this we right here, So when you mentioned 46 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: wanting to discuss it, I was like yes please, Yeah, 47 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: so one person online and this is pretty representative of 48 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 1: how people have been sort of summarizing the event. Uh, 49 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 1: described it this way and to thus into the military 50 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 1: conductive the Massive Millennium Challenge war game Team Blue U 51 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: S Forces versus Red thinly veiled Iran the Red Opposition 52 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: Forces Commander beat Blue with low tech tactics. They had 53 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: to change the rules halfway through to enforce the desired 54 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: US victory. Um So that's how it's generally described, and 55 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: like most Twitter hot takes, it's only partially accurate. Um. 56 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: But the Millennium Challenge is really worth discussing. So that's 57 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: what we're going to start with today. Um So this 58 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: was developed like in the area that immediately preceded the 59 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: invasion of Iraq, Like everybody knew we were going to 60 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: invade Iraq, but it hadn't happened yet. Uh, And like 61 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: heading into that, the Millennium Challenge was meant to be 62 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: the largest, most expansive and expensive military game in US history. 63 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: The goal of the games, which were mandated by Congress, 64 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: was to explore critical war fighting challenges at the operational 65 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: level of war that will confront US joint military forces 66 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: after two thousand ten UM. So the war games were 67 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: seen in part as preparation for the invasion of Iraq, 68 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: but there were also a testing ground for exciting new 69 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: weapons technologies that would not actually be real for nearly 70 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: a decade UM. So, yeah, since we're currently staring at 71 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: the possibility of war with Iran, everyone writing about the 72 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: Millennium Games today emphasizes that the Red team in these 73 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: games was based on Iran, and that's only partly true. Um. 74 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 1: First off, the term red team is a general run 75 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: one for the group that plays the enemy in any 76 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 1: kind of conflicts simulation. If you work for a company 77 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: that takes its digital security seriously, you'll have a red 78 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: team come in sometimes to break into your servers or whatever. 79 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: And the Red team in the two thousand two Millennium 80 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: Games was based in part on Iran, but they were 81 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 1: also based a lot on Saddam Hussein's Iraq, because that's 82 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: who we were about to invade UM. Like Saddam's Iraq, 83 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:01,359 Speaker 1: they possessed a hefty stockpile of chemical weapon but like Iran, 84 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: they were assumed to include a potent force of irregular 85 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: combatants of like asymmetrical warfare, sort of like insurgent forces UM. 86 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: So it was really more of a mix of Iraq 87 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: and Iran. And if you read stuff about these games 88 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: from like years ago before everyone was as fired up 89 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: about conflict with Iran, people would actually tended to emphasize 90 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,359 Speaker 1: that it was based on Iraq more than Iran, but 91 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: it was it was it was patterned off of aspects 92 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: of both countries. So the simulation had been developed before 93 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: September eleventh, two thousand one, UH and the projected cost 94 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: of the games were over a quarter of a billion dollars, 95 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 1: so these are very expensive. They involved more than thirteen 96 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: thousand US soldiers in seventeen different locations, including nine active 97 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: forces training sites, where soldiers were expected to deploy and 98 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 1: mock battle against one another. UH. Pentagon officials emphasized that 99 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: the main purpose of the games was to demonstrate what 100 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: they called leap ahead technologies like airborne lasers that they 101 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 1: believed were imminent and would change the game militarily once 102 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: again in favor of the United States. Uh. Um. And 103 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: the hope is that these games would provide a future 104 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: generation of US military leaders with dominant battlespace knowledge for 105 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: the future. Uh. These are the terms US military leaders 106 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: used to talk to one another. And yes they do 107 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: sound like twelve year olds playing Warhammer. Um. And it's 108 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 1: important to understand, like not all of the weapons that 109 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 1: were envisioned for these war games actually even exist today, 110 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: Like the airborne lasers they imagined having we still don't have, 111 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: which is cool. Um. So yeah, they develop these games 112 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: to like test a mix of like real things and 113 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: things we still don't have. Uh. And yeah, the games 114 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: were set in the near future. Um. And the US 115 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: and these games was represented by Army Lieutenant General B. B. 116 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: Bell uh. And the opposition forces the guys playing like 117 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 1: that combination Iran Iraq fake country. Uh. We're headed by 118 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,799 Speaker 1: a retired Marine Corps general named Van Riper. In General 119 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 1: Van Riper was viewed by his colleagues as a devious 120 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: sort of guy um who was like capable of carrying 121 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,040 Speaker 1: out some really cunning shit. Um. And he had a 122 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: real um, a real he thought it was very valuable. 123 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: Um to try to give his own side as much 124 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,039 Speaker 1: trouble as possible in these games. Like, that's what he 125 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: saw as his job. Um. So, the goal of the 126 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: opposition forces headed by Van van Riper was to preserve 127 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: the existence of the fictional regime that they represented and 128 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 1: to deny the U. S Forces or Blue Team as 129 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: much ground as possible. The goal of the US was 130 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: to secure shipping lanes, wipe out the oppositions w m 131 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: d s, and compel the enemy regime to stand down. 132 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: Um So, it's it's cool, um now. Van Riper, the 133 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: Red Team commander, it was a famous critic of the 134 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: war games held by the still new U. S Military 135 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: Joint Forces Command. In two thousand one, jf COM had 136 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: had held the United Vision Exercise, and Van Riper had 137 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: been brought into control the Red Team there. Midway through 138 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,239 Speaker 1: the game. He had been informed by the White Cell, 139 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: which is basically the dungeon master of a war game. 140 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: It's like the guys who sort of interface between the 141 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: two sides and tell people what actually happens when they 142 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: take their actions. So like the d M of this 143 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: very nerdy war game had told Van Riper halfway through 144 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: that the U S forces had destroyed all of his 145 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: team's ballistic missiles UM, even though his opponent hadn't actually 146 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: located the missiles that he'd hidden. And the justification for 147 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: given for this was that the Pentagon had new radar 148 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: technology that would be out in the future and they 149 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: were pretty sure that it would have made it easy 150 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 1: to spot these. So there's some really dumb ship that 151 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: goes on with war games, and Van Riper was really 152 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: pissed about this dumb ship UM, so he had complained 153 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 1: in two thousand one, and as a result of his complaints, 154 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 1: he'd been promised that the Millennium Challenge war Games, the 155 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 1: next year's war games would be free play and honest 156 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: exercise where the Red team would actually have the ability 157 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: to win. So that was like something he was promised 158 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: going into this, is that your side can actually win. 159 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: We're not going to intervene to guarantee a US victory 160 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: with like fake technology from the future. Yeah, from the future. 161 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: It is like I feel it's I'm not being reductive 162 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: by comparing it to dungeons and Dragons. I mean, yeah's 163 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: hard to imagine how helpful that is, but some aspects 164 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: of it are helpful. Um, and some aspects of it 165 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: are very silly, and we're about to talk about a 166 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: really helpful aspect of it. So um Yeah, obviously, like 167 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 1: war games aren't real war there were artificial limitations placed 168 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: on both sides as a result of the fact that, 169 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 1: like they had to land thousands of troops in certain 170 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: areas and they only had so many days to carry 171 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: it out. So like you can't have a totally open 172 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: ended exercise because like you're taking thirteen thousand soldiers away 173 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 1: from their duties to do stuff like drop out of planes. 174 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: You need to ensure they drop out of the planes 175 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 1: and get that training in even if things in the 176 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:38,959 Speaker 1: war game don't go quite the way like that they should. 177 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 1: So certain like it's it's never a perfect like representation 178 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: of real warfare. Exactly, Like you're gonna run run out 179 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: of mountain dew and chips eventually, and like everyone's got 180 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: to go home. Yeah, schools. The next morning, two guys 181 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:55,559 Speaker 1: are going to get into a fist fight over how 182 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: tongue tendrils works, and exactly we all we all know 183 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,679 Speaker 1: how this good. So um Van Riper was the right 184 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: guy to put in charge of the opposition. Um and 185 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: he was a pretty cunning son of a bitch. And 186 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: the Millennium Challenge games opened with the U. S side, 187 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 1: the Blue Team, issuing an ultimatum to the Red Team 188 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 1: demanding the surrender of their Saddam Hussein, analog fake dictator. 189 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: The Red Team obviously turned this down and refused to 190 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: give up immediately and not have a war game. Um, 191 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: and so yeah, the US forces began to move in. 192 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 1: And I'm gonna quote now from a great article on 193 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: the Millennium Challenge from the website War on the Rocks. Quote. 194 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: Since the George W. Bush administration had recently announced the 195 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: pre emption doctrine, Van Riper decided that as soon as 196 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 1: the U. S. Navy Carrier battle Group steamed into the Gulf, 197 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: he would preempt the pre empters and strike first. Once 198 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: US forces were within ranged, Van Riper's forces and leached 199 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: a barrage of missiles from ground based launchers, commercial ships 200 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 1: and planes flying low and without radio communications to reduce 201 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 1: their radar signature. Simultaneously, swarms of speedboats loaded with explosive 202 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: launched kami kazee attacks. Now, the US force has been 203 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: prepared to defend against an attack, and they had used 204 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: their mighty air force and powerful high tech space assets 205 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: to knock out the Red Team's communication assets prior to 206 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: moving into the Gulf. So immediately Van Riper's told, you 207 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: don't have any of your high tech communications equipment. But 208 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: Van Riper was a cunning son of a bitch, and 209 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 1: he developed a work around. He'd had his forces hide 210 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 1: coded messages inside the muzzen the Islamic call to prayer 211 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: that was going out over mosques. He'd organized a network 212 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: of motorcycle messengers to deliver messages by hand, and he'd 213 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:37,079 Speaker 1: also organized a network of low tech light based signals 214 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: in order to coordinate a mass assault by speedboats loaded 215 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: with explosives. So we started by launching He's fucking great. 216 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: Yeah uh. As another note in two thousand six, he 217 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 1: was like one of those prominent voices who yelled for 218 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 1: Donald Rumpsfeld to the resign. So he's a cool guy. Yeah. 219 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 1: So he he launches this big attack and it starts 220 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: with like a shipload of missiles, which the U. S. 221 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 1: Navy's fancy new ages radar system was able to track 222 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 1: down and thwart, but like right behind the missiles were 223 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: hundreds of explosive speedboats that rammed into the boats next, 224 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: and this tactic worked. The boats took out nineteen U 225 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: S ships, killing and injuring twenty thousand theoretical US soldiers 226 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: and sailors in a matter of minutes and basically sinking 227 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: our entire fleet. Van Riper later recalled the whole thing 228 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: was over in five, maybe ten minutes, and that there 229 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: was an eerie silence, like people didn't know what to 230 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: do next, so he immediately wins. It sounds like enders 231 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: game to me, Like it's kind of is that, And 232 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: this is usually the part of the war games that 233 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: gets highlighted most when like people are talking about right 234 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,080 Speaker 1: now on Twitter and like I've I've read people being 235 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: like the US invade, When we invade you know, Iran, 236 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 1: it'll be a disaster, and like we'll lose our whole fleet, 237 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 1: and like, look at what happened the last time they 238 00:12:54,360 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 1: did this. Is um, I think that mrs a lot 239 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: of the point about what actually went down here. Yeah, 240 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: because like this part of the story is actually not 241 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: an example of the US military being stupid. This is 242 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: an example of a war game doing exactly what you'd 243 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: want it to do. Like we held this game and 244 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: it exposed a massive shortcoming and like our operational plans 245 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: um in a really like stark and disastrous way, Like 246 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: this is exactly what you want to have happened in 247 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:28,199 Speaker 1: a war game because nobody actually dies. Um, you do, 248 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 1: exactly that's what you'd want to have happened. So so 249 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: far this is actually a big success as a war game. 250 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: The Blue team leader, General Bell, admitted that the Red 251 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: team had sunk my damn navy uh and inflicted a 252 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: disaster from which we all learned a great lesson. Um. 253 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: So Van Riper won the first round, but again, they 254 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 1: spent a quarter of a billion dollars on this war game. 255 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 1: They had troops ready. They were just gonna be like, 256 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 1: well you won, like everybody go home. Um, So they 257 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: restarted the war games. They refloated all of the ships 258 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: and basically declared everyone alive again and carried out the 259 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: operation again. So we're going to talk about what happened next. 260 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:14,319 Speaker 1: But first, you know what won't theoretically sink us sailors? 261 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 1: Would it be? Products? Yes? And yeah, right whatever you 262 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: say together everything we're bad. So um, yeah, the Van 263 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: Riper wins the first round. The Navy refloats their ships, 264 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: and then restart the war game. Uh And on the 265 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 1: second go through, Van riper Street speedboat strategy didn't work 266 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: because the US was ready for it and took effective 267 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: countermeasures and stopped the attack, which is again what you'd 268 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: want to see if you care about a war game 269 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: actually being effective in altering U S strategy in productive ways. 270 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 1: Um Now, the problems those started to creep in after 271 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 1: this point in the games. Prepared for Van Riper's insurgent 272 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: anti ship attacks, the U S Fleet was able to 273 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 1: get close to shore and launch an amphibious assault of 274 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: the regime by US marines. Now, the first wave of 275 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: marines was to be landed by V twenty two Osprey, 276 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: a tilt rotor aircraft at the Marine Corps would not 277 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: actually have for five more years. Um. Now. The Osprey 278 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: is a massive craft and it's very easy to track 279 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 1: on radar, which should have presented a problem for the 280 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: Blue Team because they're kind of easy to shoot down 281 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: if you have like the sort of air assets that 282 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: the Red Team had. But the war game dungeon masters 283 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: sent Van Riper's staff a message saying that they just 284 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 1: weren't allowed to shoot at any of the Marine Corps 285 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: troop transports. Um yeah, exactly, Like this is when it 286 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: starts to get to be bullshit. Um, this is dumb. 287 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: The justification was that, um yeah. Basically the military's justification 288 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: is that they only had a few days to actually 289 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 1: do this and they wanted to just land the soldiers 290 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: and practiced airborne landings too, So like they kind of 291 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: bullshitted things to get to do this, um as you 292 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: do in a war. Um so, even taking like a 293 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: new account the fact that they did have to do 294 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: certain things because like they're spending a lot of money 295 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: and they got to justify it by getting in training 296 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: to the second version of these games was made stupidly 297 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: easy for the Blue team. Van Riper was required to 298 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: put all of his air defense assets out in the 299 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: open where they could be easily shot, like wiped out. 300 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 1: He wasn't allowed to deploy his chemical weapons because doing 301 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: so would have made it impossible to land troops, which 302 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: again would have stopped them from being able to train 303 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: on landing troops. Um bullshit Like this kept mounting, and 304 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: after six frustrating days, Van Riper stepped down as commander 305 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: of the opposition forces in protest and acted as an 306 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: advisor for the remaining two weeks or so of the games. 307 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: But even then, even with the war game Dungeon Masters 308 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: stacking the deck against Like in favor of the United States, 309 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: the Blue Team, the US was unable to complete all 310 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: of its goals and take out the regime supported by 311 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: the Red team, So the regime like continued to exist. 312 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,199 Speaker 1: And I'm gonna quote from a very good task and 313 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: purpose right up on the war games here. The real 314 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: lesson learned from MC two thousand and two Millennium Challenge 315 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,360 Speaker 1: You thousand two shouldn't be that when fighting an enemy 316 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: who can only fight as a decentralized insurgency, we can't 317 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,920 Speaker 1: win even with a stacked deck. It's that the most 318 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:24,360 Speaker 1: advanced THEATO ratical weapons won't neutralize a force sustained by 319 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: hatred or ideology. If we wanted to learn anything, MC 320 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: two thousand two should have been a war game with 321 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: no war, a war game that starts not with guns 322 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 1: are sanctions, but with negotiators. Eighteen years into a war 323 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 1: against an insurgency, and we still struggle to learn that lesson. 324 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:45,239 Speaker 1: I mean, just watch the movie. It's literally War Games Like, 325 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 1: also starring General Van Riper. Now, after the Millennium challenge. 326 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: General Van Riper went on to complain loudly to the 327 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: press about what he'd seen. He claimed the whole thing 328 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 1: was prostituted. It was a sham intended to prove what 329 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: they wanted to prove. He told The New York Times, 330 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: there's an unfortunate culture developing in the American military that 331 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 1: maybe should make you nervous. I don't see the rich 332 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 1: intellectual discussions that we had after Vietnam. I see mostly slogans, cliches, 333 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 1: and unreadable materials. And based on the stuff that I've 334 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: been reading in the media around the assassination of General Suleimani, 335 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem likely that rich intellectual discussions are being 336 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: fostered in our current military chain of command. Um. For 337 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 1: one thing, the decision to strike at Iran's military leader 338 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,919 Speaker 1: inside the borders of an allied nation Iraq was not 339 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: made with any real plan for the fallout. As The 340 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 1: New York Times reported, the option was presented to the 341 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: president like because they thought it would make other options 342 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: look good because it was so dumb. Didn't eat you 343 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 1: another option first, and then I don't know, Yeah, don't 344 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:52,199 Speaker 1: do that, Donald Trump. He option absolutely go for the 345 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: dumb one. Yeah, he will, but also doesn't seem like 346 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,120 Speaker 1: a pr thing of like, well, we didn't actually want 347 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 1: him to do this, we did it as Yes, it's 348 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: very hard to know what exactly, because it's very possible, 349 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: like the New York Times has a notorious history of 350 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: wanting to like their military sources, to like them and 351 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,400 Speaker 1: reporting on whatever will make the military look good. Right, 352 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 1: maybe it's a matter of yeah, this is gonna go yeah, yeah, 353 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: but like yeah, the idea that like, well we we 354 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: just we just did it as a goof we thought 355 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 1: it was too dumb. No, yeah, that's not impossible because 356 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: everything is incredibly stupid because it's the worst year ever. 357 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: But it's also yeah, it's also possible that like something 358 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: basically like the a lot like a lot of So 359 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: one of the things I'm gonna do an episode behind 360 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 1: the Bastards this week on Sulimani and we'll get into 361 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 1: in more detail. One of the things he was famous 362 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 1: for is that as command of Commander of the Kood's Force, 363 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: which is like kind of a mix between special forces 364 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 1: is in the CIA for Iran, he was like instrumental 365 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: in the distribution of what are called explosively formed penetrators, 366 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: like the special type of I E. ED that was 367 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 1: responsible for about of the US casualties in Iraq. So 368 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 1: a lot of people in the Defense department hate him 369 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: because their soldiers and stuff got killed as a result 370 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 1: of innovations this guy brought in. So it's also entirely 371 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: possible the military has been wanting to the military is 372 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,879 Speaker 1: definitely wanted this guy dead for a while. Most US 373 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 1: presidents have been too smart and most high brass have 374 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: been too smart to like stir up that hornet's nest. 375 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: It's possible that some people with who wanted this dude 376 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: dead saw that Trump was their opportunity to make it happen. Um. 377 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 1: I do think people have been right to freak out 378 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 1: a little bit as to what the consequences of this 379 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: assassination are likely to be. It is a huge deal 380 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 1: and it will lead to more killing. Um. But I'm 381 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: frustrated at how much of that has been focused on, 382 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: like mass violenced in the United States and stuff like that. 383 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: Like there's been people like screaming about the threat of 384 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: like a rainy and sleeper cells attacking America and stuff. 385 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 1: I don't see that as particularly instantly it ramped up 386 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: to that and like stopping citizens at the border and stuff. Yeah, 387 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 1: Like well that didn't we learn anything, of course we didn't, Um, 388 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean it's more concerning are the people 389 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 1: over there, are the troops that are now being deployed 390 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 1: over there or that are already there? Uh, how this 391 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 1: affects are like citizens in that region? Yeah, that's a concern. 392 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 1: Like and instantly when that when the when first the 393 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: news broke, I remember, like the l A p D 394 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 1: shared out a tweet like we're monitoring this situation very 395 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 1: taking very closely. What and that's terrifying in its own 396 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 1: We don't need to get into that mode. Like yeah, yeah, 397 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 1: And like if you're thinking about like the the groups 398 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: of people least likely to be piste off at the 399 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: assassination of Kosum Sulamany just because of who he was. Uh, 400 00:21:56,520 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: Like the Iranians who fled Iran to of in the 401 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 1: United States are pretty yeah, now they don't tend to 402 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 1: be fans. This is the guy who, among other things, 403 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,919 Speaker 1: Um was largely responsible for recently suppressing protests against the 404 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 1: government in Iran last late last year that led to 405 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: like people being executed. Um, he's a dude with a history. 406 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: Uh now, Um, I also think like, so you've had like, 407 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 1: on one hand, like these people like flipping out like oh, 408 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: Iran is going to attack like my neighborhood, or like 409 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: they're going to fire missiles at US, which is is 410 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 1: not I don't think the worry. You've also had people 411 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,440 Speaker 1: freaking out that like the US is going to try 412 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 1: to invade Iran and like a conventional military engagement and 413 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: like either will kill a lot of them or they'll 414 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: murder a lot of us because they're worried about like 415 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 1: what they read about in the Millennium Challenge. I don't 416 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 1: really see a headlong invasion of Iran as particularly likely. 417 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,040 Speaker 1: Like obviously it could happen as part of a series 418 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,880 Speaker 1: of cascadingly stupid decisions, which could absolutely occur because only 419 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: the dumbest people are at the wheel in our country. 420 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 1: Um well, everything I don't think that's going steps seems 421 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: to be like that's kind of what they want to happen. 422 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: It's just like at what point does that damn break? 423 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: Like all the antonism and like pulling out of your randy, 424 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,640 Speaker 1: all the things leading up to this and then doing 425 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: this like oh well, what do you want? I mean, 426 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: he says one thing and does another. Um, do you 427 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 1: guys want to talk about what everybody thinks that this 428 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: is a distraction from appeachment, that this is a ploy 429 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 1: for re election. Yeah, I'm sure I suspect, like that's Honestly, 430 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:37,400 Speaker 1: I don't think Trump wants to invade Iran. There's certainly 431 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: people within his administration who want a war with Iran. 432 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 1: I don't think Trump does because, like I think that's 433 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 1: a big, painful, messy thing that's unlikely to actually help 434 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 1: him politically because it would not be a fun or 435 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: an easy war. Um. I think Trump's thinking on this 436 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: probably didn't go much further than oh, this is what 437 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: everyone will be talking about. It will be like when 438 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,199 Speaker 1: I killed bog Datti, Like let's let's do that, and 439 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: let's stop people talking about the the impeachment. Yeah, I mean, 440 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 1: and it's just a sense possible. It's like less like 441 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 1: the threat of World War three and more like Cold 442 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: War two and just like sort of tensions where but 443 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 1: there when there will also still be violence in that 444 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 1: region because that's what we've been doing for decades. Um, 445 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: And like this idea not starting another forever war which 446 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: obviously like I'm behind that message in general, but like 447 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 1: we're in there forever war, like it's still going on. 448 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,200 Speaker 1: It's not like we're going to start another one on 449 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: forever war and we're in it, and it's just which 450 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,679 Speaker 1: region we're in we're focusing on. Is that should be 451 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 1: its new official name? Um? Yeah, no, I mean I 452 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 1: hear that, and you're right, that certainly crossed my mind 453 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 1: that it's just like Okay, he just does the thing 454 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: without thinking it through completely. Uh, it succumbs to pressure 455 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 1: from from certain people. It's hard. It's hard to not 456 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 1: um go to that place where you think, oh, this 457 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: is something that people have pointed in him in this direction, 458 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: because you know, it's hard to uh lose a re 459 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: election when you're in the midst of a war. There's 460 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 1: a way that you can frame it. There's a way 461 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 1: that this can help. Like we're seeing already gin up 462 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 1: um fear of others, of Iranians, of the flip of 463 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,919 Speaker 1: the flip of even just the media like on a 464 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 1: dime immediately, Yeah, well maybe maybe we should do this. 465 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: It's um, it's that that is something I mean, there's 466 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: so many aspects of this that's alarming, But you know, 467 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: it's hard to not it's hard to just not consider 468 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 1: that for me personally. Clinton did it in January after 469 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 1: he wasn't like during the impeachment, like basically the same 470 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 1: time period, UM, for for similar reasons also and obviously 471 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,680 Speaker 1: just says whatever. But Yeah, there's like that clip from 472 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 1: his old vlog where really accuses Obama of going to 473 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: start a war with Iran so that he can win 474 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: re election. So when he says things like that, you 475 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:13,160 Speaker 1: know it's on his mind. Yeah, saying that maybe that's 476 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 1: what he's doing, uh, is based obviously on his behavior, 477 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 1: but also he's literally thought about it before, UM, in 478 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: the context of being president. Yeah, I mean, and that's 479 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:31,560 Speaker 1: what I think is more likely than Trump. I think 480 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: Trump's desire to avoid like war like because war is 481 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 1: complicated in a big pain in the ass, UH is 482 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 1: genuine not out of any humanitarian need, but because it's 483 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: messy and they usually don't go very well. I think 484 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 1: what Trump likes is kind of the same thing Obama likes. 485 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 1: He likes being able to flex his muscle and order 486 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 1: a guy killed and brag about it. I think he's 487 00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,439 Speaker 1: probably scared at the possibility of having to deploy hundreds 488 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,919 Speaker 1: of thousands of US troops and an invasion of a 489 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 1: foreign nation. That's such a messy thing. And I get like, 490 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,120 Speaker 1: historically we have this idea that it helps the president's 491 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 1: poll numbers, but I don't think that's really the case anymore, 492 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 1: because we've been consistently at war for so long, um 493 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 1: that I think an escalation, like the one thing that 494 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: Trump can't afford to do is like massively escalate our 495 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 1: troop commitments overseas, which an invasion of Iran would do. 496 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,440 Speaker 1: Like that, like the whole thing he wants to brag 497 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: about he's willing to like destroy our alliance with the 498 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: Kurds in Syria over is like trying to get US 499 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 1: forces out of the Middle East, and like that was 500 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 1: a big part of what he was trying to announce 501 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: with um and fucking Afghanistan with like the ceasefire with 502 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 1: the Taliban is he's clearly trying to move to have 503 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 1: to like get US forces out of Afghanistan too, so 504 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: we can say I pulled our troops out of two countries. 505 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 1: I really don't think that this is my gun. Maybe 506 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,640 Speaker 1: I'm wrong about this. I don't think that's what he 507 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 1: wants UM. I do think there's guys around him that 508 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 1: want Yeah, and he's very impulsive and also he kind 509 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,160 Speaker 1: of he kind of does, but kind of doesn't. That's 510 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:13,200 Speaker 1: the frustrating. Yeah. He loves the military and loves like swinging. Yeah. 511 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,119 Speaker 1: I think that there's a world where people are pushing 512 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 1: him for this, and uh, you know all this stuff 513 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 1: is going on and Peach and stuff's going on. He's like, sure, yeah, 514 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:28,159 Speaker 1: that'll help, you know. Without Yeah, I don't know. I 515 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,160 Speaker 1: certainly hope you're right that it doesn't have the same 516 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,399 Speaker 1: power that it has in the past. I think it's 517 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,399 Speaker 1: a valid point. Yeah, I've been Uh I kind of 518 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 1: mentioned before just like like we're in this sort of 519 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 1: general like protest era where like people are just like 520 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 1: dung ho about protesting and uh, you know the science March, 521 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 1: that this march, that this march. And I've always like 522 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 1: held out hope like maybe maybe if another war is 523 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 1: like actually plausible, then that'll be the thing that does 524 00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 1: it that like gets people really could because we've done 525 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 1: it so many times, we've been here, we know how 526 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 1: easy it is to be lied to. UM, And do 527 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 1: you think it is that I don't it's because I mean, 528 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 1: I I take your point, and you're right, this is 529 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 1: a protest era, but it's not the same. Everybody's a 530 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 1: little bit burnt out. You hear about a protest and 531 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 1: you don't I know. No, That's why i'm I'm It 532 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: would have to it would have to be something new, 533 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 1: I think for it to really have an impact. It 534 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 1: would have to not just be we're going to protest 535 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 1: the war. Would have to be we're going to shut 536 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 1: this fucking country down. We're going to have a general strike, 537 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 1: we are going to we're going to all break the 538 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 1: law a lot together exactly like in order to damage 539 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 1: this country until they stop. Um. I don't know that 540 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 1: I think that's likely, But I think if that's the 541 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 1: kind of thing, like I didn't show up at any 542 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: anti war protest, first because I don't see this as 543 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: a pro war with Iran move. I see this is 544 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 1: like a stupid, reckless move by an idiot who wanted 545 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: to distract from an impeachment. Um. The second because like 546 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: there's so many random marches, I don't I can't show 547 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: up to them all. Um. But if it's a we're 548 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: gonna function up until what this country is doing fundamentally changes, 549 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 1: and we will hold it hostage until it does. Yeah. 550 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 1: I'll get out into the street. Yeah yeah, general strike 551 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 1: and general shut down of like, nope, we're done. We're 552 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: done here. I don't know what it takes for us 553 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 1: to get to that point. Yeah, no one does. Um 554 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 1: when we come back after adds, I want to talk 555 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 1: a little bit about what I think actually is going 556 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 1: to happen in the wake of this, based on some 557 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 1: stuff that happened in the past. For I know what 558 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 1: didn't happen in the past ads for products and services, 559 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: perfect was creating an ad for a product or service 560 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 1: together everything are So I want to talk a little 561 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,360 Speaker 1: bit about what I think is actually likely as like 562 00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 1: the next series of events to happen based on stuff 563 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:09,480 Speaker 1: that's happened in the past. In lateross oh my god, 564 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: oh man a fifteen flush salute when this president lies 565 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 1: and state Yeah. Uh so. In late two thousands six, 566 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 1: General Stanley McCrystal formed a task force to kill and 567 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:32,280 Speaker 1: capture Iranian backed insurgents in Iraq. That December, US force 568 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,479 Speaker 1: has rated the compound of a prominent Shiite politicians and 569 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 1: captured an Iranian general there. The general was a member 570 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 1: of the Kood's force, which I was just talking about, 571 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 1: the group run by Kasam Sulamani. Uh. This arrest of 572 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 1: an Iranian commander in Iraq was seen by everyone, including 573 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 1: the Iraqis, as the breaking of an unwritten law. Iraq's 574 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,719 Speaker 1: Prime Minister, Nori el Maliki, demanded that general's release, and 575 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 1: he was in fact released, but doing so really piste 576 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 1: off the American because again the Kods force has been 577 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 1: directly and directly responsible for hundreds of US casualties. So 578 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 1: Stanley McCrystal looked out for another way to strike back. 579 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 1: In January of two thousand seven, he received word that 580 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: another Iranian Revolutionary Guard general was in a convoy headed 581 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 1: towards the Iraqi border, and to make matters sweeter, General 582 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,840 Speaker 1: Kasam Sulimani was heading there with him. Both generals were 583 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: set to meet with Kurdish leaders. Mccrystal's forces tracked the 584 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 1: convoy as it drove to her Bill, the Kurdish capital, 585 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 1: and stopped at a small building crudely marked as a consulate. Now, 586 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: the fact that this building was labeled as a consulate 587 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,479 Speaker 1: should have made it immune to any sort of like 588 00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 1: US intervention. Um the Iranians have diplomatic cover when they're 589 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 1: in a consulate and a sovereign nation like That's the 590 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 1: way international law is supposed to work. But the Americans 591 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: ignored diplomatic niceties and international law and the express wishes 592 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: of the Iraqis and moved in anyway. They arrested five 593 00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:56,920 Speaker 1: Iranians bearing diplomatic passports. McCrystal insists that these guys were 594 00:32:56,920 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 1: all Kods Force members, and they probably were, but this 595 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 1: violation of the accepted norms of behavior in the region 596 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 1: piste off everybody, most especially Iran. Nine days later, a 597 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,520 Speaker 1: group of Iraqis dressed in American uniforms infiltrated the Karbala 598 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,800 Speaker 1: provincial center in southern Iraq, killed one U S soldier 599 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,960 Speaker 1: and captured four more. They drove these captives outside the 600 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 1: provincial center and executed all four at close range. Solamani 601 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,719 Speaker 1: denied having anything to do with this attack, but it 602 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 1: is generally and probably correctly seen as a reprisal for 603 00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 1: the arrest of his men. The people who actually did 604 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 1: the killings, though, were Iraqis members of Asaib al hak 605 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,160 Speaker 1: Ashia backed militia or a Shia militia backed by Iran 606 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 1: that was recently declared a foreign terrorist group by the 607 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 1: United States. This same militia has been accused credibly of 608 00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:48,800 Speaker 1: killing Iraqi protesters and Assyria in late two thousand nineteen. Now, 609 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 1: I think this sequence of events provides a much likelier 610 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,200 Speaker 1: blueprint for the sort of responses we can expect from Iran. 611 00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 1: They have proxies all across the Mid East, and it 612 00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,840 Speaker 1: behooves them to have these forces kidnap and execute Americans. 613 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 1: The best part of this strategy is that it's relatively 614 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 1: restrained nature will contrast with what will surely be the 615 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 1: unhinged response of the Trump administration. Our president has already 616 00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:11,920 Speaker 1: threatened to bomb cultural and civilian sights in response to 617 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:15,320 Speaker 1: any Iranian aggression. If Iran launched some sort of mass 618 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 1: military attack, uh in the US fired back with missiles 619 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,760 Speaker 1: and whatnot, that wouldn't seem like an escalation to most people. 620 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,000 Speaker 1: Like if they're blowing up on aircraft carrier and we're 621 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 1: shooting missiles back, that just looks like war. But if 622 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 1: some Iraqi missionman militiamen kill a couple of Americans in 623 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 1: Basra and then Trump launches missiles at Iran, like that 624 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,840 Speaker 1: seems a lot less justifiable to most people around the world. 625 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,880 Speaker 1: Um And you know, if a lot of these attacks 626 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 1: are carried out by Iraqi militia who are backed by Iran, 627 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 1: who's to say Trump won't decided to strike at targets 628 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 1: inside of Iraq. When the news came that the Iraqi 629 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:54,600 Speaker 1: Parliament passed a non by binding UH like resolution to 630 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 1: ask the United States to leave, Trump started threatening to 631 00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,080 Speaker 1: like charge them billions of dollars for the base is 632 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,520 Speaker 1: that we built there in place sanctions on the Iraqi economy. 633 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,800 Speaker 1: He's already shown he has no issues UH firing missiles 634 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:10,840 Speaker 1: off inside Iraq's sovereign territory. So if there were attacks 635 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,920 Speaker 1: by Iraqi militias backed by Iran against Americans in Iraq, 636 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,359 Speaker 1: I have no trouble imagining that Trump might launch launch 637 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 1: missiles at Iraq too, at which point we're firing missiles 638 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,640 Speaker 1: into the sovereign territory of our ally. Um And I 639 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,640 Speaker 1: think from Iran's point of view, getting the US to 640 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,200 Speaker 1: kill a bunch of Iranian and Iraqi civilians and half 641 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 1: cocked vengeance strikes would do a great job of welding 642 00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 1: the people of both nations together against US influence, which 643 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:38,760 Speaker 1: is kind of the whole goal of their foreign Yeah, 644 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,560 Speaker 1: we've we've seen aspects of this happened so far. Kassam 645 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:45,640 Speaker 1: Sulimani's funeral procession started in Baghdad and included visits to 646 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,440 Speaker 1: the sacred Iraqi cities of Karbala and Najaff before his 647 00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,160 Speaker 1: remains were returned to his hometown in Iran. Uh and 648 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,239 Speaker 1: inside Iran, the government has used Costum's popularity and his 649 00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,080 Speaker 1: assassination to attempt to bridge some of the political divides 650 00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,440 Speaker 1: and Iranian culture by focusing on resistance to the United States. 651 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,560 Speaker 1: And again, I don't want to over emphasize this because 652 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,840 Speaker 1: a lot of talk about this, like you risk making 653 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,280 Speaker 1: it seem like Iranians are of one mind about Kosum 654 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 1: Sulamani or about any of this. He was actually hugely 655 00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,719 Speaker 1: unpopular even within sizeable chunks of the Iranian government, Like 656 00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 1: they're they're not all the same. And again, he helped 657 00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 1: crack down on a popular protest movement late last year 658 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,279 Speaker 1: that involved huge numbers of Iranian citizens who probably hate 659 00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,799 Speaker 1: the guy because he had their friends and family murders. So, like, 660 00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,800 Speaker 1: this ship is complicated, but it's split because there's a 661 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,520 Speaker 1: huge amount of of people showing up in support and 662 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:39,600 Speaker 1: in protest and anger, so that the like when the 663 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,600 Speaker 1: U S is like, well, actually where the aggressor, and 664 00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:46,640 Speaker 1: we're gonna like it's just further creating this villain uh 665 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 1: for people to unite against when like, if you leave 666 00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:55,800 Speaker 1: people alone, they will figure it out. Like yeah, which 667 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,120 Speaker 1: this is frustrating. That was happening in Iren exactly, the 668 00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:03,320 Speaker 1: hugely popular protests against the Iraqi government. We're also protests 669 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,280 Speaker 1: against Iran because there's a lot of anger within Iraq 670 00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,160 Speaker 1: naturally at what Iran's gotten to do in there, because 671 00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:12,359 Speaker 1: they've done a bunch of imperialist meddling in Iraq. Um. 672 00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 1: And a lot of those protesters aren't the happier with 673 00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 1: US imperialist meddling in Iraq. But if we had supported 674 00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:23,000 Speaker 1: those protesters, um, we probably could have gained more like 675 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:29,360 Speaker 1: diplomatic benefits than firing missiles inside Iraq at people thoughtlessly. Um. 676 00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,239 Speaker 1: It's just like such a fucking bad idea. Like when 677 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,879 Speaker 1: you see democracy and action, you're like, actually, I think 678 00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:40,560 Speaker 1: this is called three D chess guys. Yeah. Another thing 679 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,880 Speaker 1: I wanted to talk about is the potential of Iranian 680 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:47,040 Speaker 1: cyber reprisals. Um. And again, people talking about this online 681 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,239 Speaker 1: have like a lot of folks have been afraid that like, oh, 682 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,319 Speaker 1: they're going to shut down our electric grid, They're gonna 683 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 1: like shut down the Eastern seaboard and stuff. I think 684 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,080 Speaker 1: that's taking it a bit far. UM. But Iran does 685 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:04,200 Speaker 1: have a sophisticated and extensive like digital um operations, uh, 686 00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,600 Speaker 1: sort of like system all around the world. UM. But 687 00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,840 Speaker 1: if you look at their past history of a cyber attacks, 688 00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:11,919 Speaker 1: I think you can get an idea of of how 689 00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:15,160 Speaker 1: this might look um. In October of two thousand nineteen, 690 00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,680 Speaker 1: Iranian hackers were revealed to have breached a bunch of 691 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:21,680 Speaker 1: US satellite companies. In January of two thousand nineteen, fire Eye, 692 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,399 Speaker 1: a cyber security firm, released details about a two year 693 00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,400 Speaker 1: long Iranian campaign to steal log in credentials for businesses 694 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,880 Speaker 1: across the world, including those in North America. In December 695 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,640 Speaker 1: of two thousand eighteen, to Iranian nationals were indicted for 696 00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 1: carrying out a cyber ransom attack against the city government 697 00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 1: of Atlanta. UH. And I think when you like kind 698 00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 1: of look at what they've done in the past, the 699 00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:45,719 Speaker 1: actual like reality of what an Iranian cyber response might 700 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,160 Speaker 1: look like looks less like I don't know, live free 701 00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:52,279 Speaker 1: or die hard, um, and more like, uh, the kind 702 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,560 Speaker 1: of hacks that North Korea pulled off against Sony in 703 00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:59,120 Speaker 1: two thousand. Yeah, I think we'd be more likely to 704 00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,080 Speaker 1: see them trying to release I don't know, emails and 705 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,279 Speaker 1: stuff like that for maybe like I don't know, maybe 706 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:05,880 Speaker 1: like they find some ship that like the l A 707 00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:07,640 Speaker 1: p d has been saying in the wake of this 708 00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:10,440 Speaker 1: about like Iranian citizens, like whatever it would do to 709 00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:15,920 Speaker 1: spread distrust and like, yeah, tweet the N word or 710 00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:22,920 Speaker 1: something like that. Yeah, yeah, more dirt on politicians, studio heads, sure, yeah, 711 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,640 Speaker 1: or like seeing that they hacked satellite companies makes me think, oh, 712 00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,920 Speaker 1: what if they found evidence, which it definitely exists that 713 00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,120 Speaker 1: the US government is doing much more extensive and detailed 714 00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:36,560 Speaker 1: satellite surveillance of American citizens than we previously had access to, 715 00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,239 Speaker 1: and they just reveal that that would do like that 716 00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,120 Speaker 1: would hurt um. But it's not like they're not going 717 00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,640 Speaker 1: to turn off our nuclear power plants, like and why 718 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:49,320 Speaker 1: would they? Um, It's easier and probably more damaging in 719 00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,200 Speaker 1: the long run to do ship like this, like shutting 720 00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,520 Speaker 1: down power to huge chunks of the US would rally 721 00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:59,279 Speaker 1: people against Iran and get everybody piste off. I'd say, 722 00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,240 Speaker 1: if there's something a bunch of the last few years 723 00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:07,200 Speaker 1: that uh our social fabric, our political system, everything is 724 00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:11,480 Speaker 1: highly susceptible to subtle influences, you know, yeah, and not 725 00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,440 Speaker 1: so subtle, but stuff like that is a very effective 726 00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 1: way to undermine everything between uh yeah, the people and 727 00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,200 Speaker 1: the people in power. And like, like you said, like 728 00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,839 Speaker 1: this the story that will eventually drop that we all 729 00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:28,560 Speaker 1: know is coming of Like oh, yeah, all your phones 730 00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,840 Speaker 1: are recording you obviously, That's why you get all these ads. 731 00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,200 Speaker 1: That's why when you say a word out loud and 732 00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,160 Speaker 1: then you google, it auto corrects even though no one 733 00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:38,720 Speaker 1: has ever googled that word before. Um, that story is coming. 734 00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,920 Speaker 1: Crazy story about that for you guys. But like having 735 00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:47,239 Speaker 1: that be what it is would cause so much yeah chaos. Yeah, 736 00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:50,600 Speaker 1: and that that would cause chaos. It would do damage 737 00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,359 Speaker 1: to the United States. And also like how could like, 738 00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,200 Speaker 1: if you're Trump, you can't launch a cruise missile at 739 00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:59,760 Speaker 1: an Iranian mosque because they released details that T Mobile 740 00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:04,439 Speaker 1: was buying. Honestly you say that, I mean he might, 741 00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,880 Speaker 1: I mean, but it would look it would look wild 742 00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,719 Speaker 1: and unhinged in a way that like if they if 743 00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,799 Speaker 1: he launched a missile them because they killed five U 744 00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,239 Speaker 1: S troops in a reprisal strike, more people can get 745 00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,400 Speaker 1: on board with that than like they released internal emails 746 00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:26,000 Speaker 1: the government more business as usual than we got we're 747 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:30,319 Speaker 1: going to blow them up. Yeah. Yeah, so Independence Day 748 00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,720 Speaker 1: being the response to the hackers or something like that. Yeah. 749 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:38,280 Speaker 1: In conclusion, I think that the responses from Iran UH 750 00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,799 Speaker 1: and the response like the fallout from the assassin assassination 751 00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,000 Speaker 1: of Sulimani is going to be terrible. Um, a lot 752 00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,080 Speaker 1: of people are going to die and be harmed. I 753 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:47,759 Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna look like what a lot of 754 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:51,480 Speaker 1: people are currently freaking out about. But that doesn't mean 755 00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,759 Speaker 1: it's not bad. It's just going to be smarter than 756 00:41:53,800 --> 00:42:01,759 Speaker 1: that is my suspicion. Yeah, so that's our little many episode. Yeah, well, 757 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:06,000 Speaker 1: thank you for that, Robert. That was very helpful, informative 758 00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,920 Speaker 1: all the things. Yeah, everybody go watch War Games, it's 759 00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,040 Speaker 1: good and read Andrew's game. I don't know, I love 760 00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:17,440 Speaker 1: that book, the documentary War Games. Would you like to play? 761 00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,880 Speaker 1: You guys can check us out online on our social media. 762 00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:26,959 Speaker 1: It's worst Year pod, Twitter, Instagram, there's a merch store, 763 00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:31,520 Speaker 1: there's all that. Uh yeah, that's it for us today 764 00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:36,239 Speaker 1: and doing an elegant job ending this. Yeah, and and 765 00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,759 Speaker 1: look out for when our internal emails get leaked by 766 00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:42,000 Speaker 1: iran um and that that's going to be a fun 767 00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:43,759 Speaker 1: day because you will get to see how much ship 768 00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:47,279 Speaker 1: we talk about Cody behind his back it is. I 769 00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,160 Speaker 1: mean I get most of those emails too, Like you 770 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:55,080 Speaker 1: don't care. Oh my god, I didn't know you saw that. Yeah, 771 00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,400 Speaker 1: they don't need to Heck, I get I can directing 772 00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,759 Speaker 1: my thoughts. I'm sorry, d don't be I'm still here, 773 00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:06,239 Speaker 1: all right, all right, guys, thank you for listening, Thank 774 00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:09,239 Speaker 1: you Robert for preparing that. And uh m, well all right, 775 00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:20,480 Speaker 1: everything so dull, everything so dull. It's again. I tried. Dane. 776 00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:23,640 Speaker 1: Worst Year Ever is a production of I Heart Radio. 777 00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,120 Speaker 1: For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the I 778 00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,200 Speaker 1: heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to 779 00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:30,080 Speaker 1: your favorite shows.