1 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: Hello, They're happy Thursday. Welcome to another episode of the 2 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast. Today a solo round of things. Obviously, big 3 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: development in the last twenty four hours with the President 4 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: Trump's decision to rescind or pause the Terarif regime, which 5 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: had been in place for a couple of hours, leading 6 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: to another market meltdown, and particularly we think the thing 7 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 1: that truly rattled the President was what was happening in 8 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,959 Speaker 1: the bond market. But I'm not here to play CNBC 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: guy for you. There are plenty of smart financial guys. 10 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: If you want to go down that road, you can 11 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: go down that road. I'm here to talk about the 12 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: politics of this moment, what to learn from this moment 13 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: and what it could mean, and how to watch sort 14 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 1: of reaction going forward. So what to take away from this, Well, 15 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: bottom line is Donald Trump blink, blink. The question is 16 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: why did he blink? Going into this, there was always 17 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: a belief, almost like a security blanket belief among the 18 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: business community, who towards the end of twenty twenty four 19 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: accelerated in their support generally of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris, 20 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: you know, and it was the basic reasoning being regulation, regulation, regulation, 21 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: Donald Trump was campaigning on doing all these tariffs, and 22 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: all of these sort of business leaders were kind of compartmentalizing, believing, Oh, 23 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:29,479 Speaker 1: he's not as serious the tariffs he did the first time, 24 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: weren't that damaging. If that's all he's going to do, 25 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: we can handle it. Didn't necessarily believe that he was 26 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: willing to go where he was going to go. I 27 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: think the biggest reason why there's been so many miscalculations 28 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 1: about Donald Trump two point zero versus Donald Trump one 29 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: point oh is simply the missing the missing people that 30 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: were very involved in putting together Trump's first administration. Mike Henson, 31 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: Ryan's previous. Ryan's previous was the first chief of staff. 32 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: He was chairman of the RNC when Donald Trump got 33 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: a lot president and then he got named chief of 34 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: staff and Mike Pence was the vice president, and Mike 35 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:08,679 Speaker 1: Pence was in charge of the transition. 36 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 2: Well, we now know. 37 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 1: In hindsight, particularly after watching the first eighty days of 38 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: Trump two point zero, that what Mike Penson writes previous 39 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,639 Speaker 1: did in stacking that administration in Trump one point zero 40 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: was to put in a whole slew of guardrails in 41 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:30,519 Speaker 1: the form of personnel, whether it was Gary Cohane who 42 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: was worked on the White House Economic Team and literally 43 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: snatched documents away from President Trump from getting rid of 44 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 1: trade agreements with South Korea at one point. Or Jared 45 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: Kushner versus Donald Trump Junior. Jared Kushner very much a 46 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: bit more of an internationalist, a bit more friendly to 47 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 1: private equity, Donald Trump Junior a bit more culturally conservative 48 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: and fugalist. And he's the family member with the most 49 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 1: influence on Donald Trump right now. The last time it 50 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: was Jared Kushner who was the family member with that 51 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 1: kind of influence. And I could go on and on, 52 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 1: but I think it is pretty clear that Trump one 53 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: point oh had a lot more guardrails preventing Trump from 54 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: governing by instinct. That is not what has been happening 55 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: in Trump two point ozho. He has been governing by instinct. 56 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: It is why the terriff regime was announced. It is 57 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: why the teriff regime was put into effect, even for 58 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: a few hours. There is nobody around him to tell 59 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 1: him no. Now, clearly, what happened here is a couple 60 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: of things. One, the markets, you know, didn't right themselves. 61 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 1: They sort of over the weekend comforted themselves to believe 62 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 1: that oh it was you know, once people digested this, 63 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: it wouldn't be so bad. It was bad, particularly in 64 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: the bond markets. So clearly they realized they had a problem. 65 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: And a lot of wealthy people have Donald. 66 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 2: Trump's cell phone. 67 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: And I you know, I'd said this before with members 68 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: of Congress, that they were going to start feeling he 69 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: directly from their most important constituents, important of course in quotes, 70 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: meaning their most financially significant constituents, who all have their 71 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: congressman and senator on speed dial as well, and they 72 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 1: were all complaining about these tariffs. It's why you had, 73 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: arguably for the first time, multiple elected Republicans going on 74 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 1: the record criticizing the tariffs. 75 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 2: They might be. 76 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: They were gentle about Donald Trump, the individual saying, well, 77 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: I know what he wants to try to do, but 78 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: I'm not sure these tariffs are going to be or 79 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: the Tom Tillis quote, who do I choke if this 80 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 1: doesn't work, But he was saying things like if this 81 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: doesn't work. Ron Johnson clearly was didn't like any of 82 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 1: these tariffs, but he's been pretty supportive culturally of a 83 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: lot of things of the mag of movement and he 84 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: didn't want to sound anti Trump and how he did it, 85 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: but they were all speaking out. You had bills introduced 86 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: in the House and the Senate. You had seven senators 87 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 1: ready to Republican senators ready to sign on to a 88 00:04:56,080 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 1: bill that would essentially give the tariff power back to 89 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 1: the legislative branch and take it away from the executive branch. 90 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: So I think that this is times one hundred with 91 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,720 Speaker 1: Donald Trump. Every major donor of Trump's has a cell 92 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: phone because Donald Trump loves to get their calls. He 93 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: loves to talk to them. And they all were talking 94 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: to him, and they were all trying to. 95 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 2: Cajole and convince them. 96 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 1: They weren't yelling at him, but they were all begging him. 97 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:31,039 Speaker 1: And then Donald Trump weirdly enjoys being seen as playing 98 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: the role of savior. And there's no doubt in my 99 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: mind that the best way to get him to act 100 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: is you can really help the economy right here, You 101 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: alone can make this happen. So there are all sorts 102 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: of ways that people have learned to play sort of 103 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,919 Speaker 1: to sort of play the Trump personality, to sort of 104 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: you know, you know what you're going to get, how 105 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 1: do you use it? 106 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 2: Can you conjole it. Certainly, over the last few days 107 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 2: there was some. 108 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: Doubt creeping into my head a little bit and out 109 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: creeping into the head of others that maybe this is 110 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: a different Trump, Maybe he so believes in tariffs that 111 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 1: he is not going to let outside forces influence him 112 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: and show him what reality looks like. 113 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:14,679 Speaker 2: But that wasn't the case. 114 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: So I think the big takeaway is he is still 115 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: he still cares what rich people think. And it was 116 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: the wealthiest people on Wall Street that were screaming the loudest, 117 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 1: including many people that had become important supporters and advocates 118 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: of him, Bill Ackman, who's become a very polarizing figure 119 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 1: in the finance community, but certainly is somebody very loudly 120 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 1: in favor of Trump, and then very loudly complaining about 121 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: the terroriffs. 122 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,159 Speaker 2: You had Elon Musk complaining with Peter Navarro. 123 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 1: So the point is, I think the lesson to take 124 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: away here is that he still pressure still works with Trump. 125 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 1: He may not have the Thelma and Luise Jean that 126 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 1: I thought perhaps we were all staring at here, that 127 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: boy he was willing to drive off that cliff, no 128 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: matter the evidence, no matter what people were saying that 129 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:09,239 Speaker 1: is not what happened. The question is whether he's already 130 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: done a lot of damage. He showed some weakness, now 131 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: he's showing a bit of indecisiveness, right. Sometimes indecisiveness can 132 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: be just as damaging as being sort of wrong and strong. 133 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 2: Right. 134 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: So I'm not saying he's politically out of the woods. 135 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to recover. But clearly he 136 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: saw that his own political ratings were going upside down. 137 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: He was ten points in the negative on one poll 138 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: I saw earlier today, earlier on Wednesday. Excuse me, that 139 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 1: had his numbers upside down on the economy. His numbers 140 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: in the economy looked like what Joe Biden's numbers on 141 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: the economy looked like at the end of twenty twenty four. 142 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 1: Needless to say, that's not a good look. He's also 143 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: a guy trying to get Congress to do a very 144 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: difficult budget proposal that will give him his big tax cut. 145 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: It's not an easy vote for some of these members 146 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: of Congress. So here he was creating this horrible political 147 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: environment for the Republican Party, a shaky economy, and he 148 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: was cajoling these people to vote for a budget that 149 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: may or may not be very popular with the public. 150 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: That was a lot to ask, and I think that 151 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 1: he had a big vote in Congress that he needed 152 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: to get through. This goes back to the criticism I'd 153 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: leveled earlier. Forget whether you think it's a good policy. 154 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: Let's assume you accept the premise that the policy Donald 155 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,679 Speaker 1: Trump is pursuing is a good idea, which is figure 156 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: out how to use tariffs in order to sort of 157 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: get manufacturing back in America. Well, then he didn't order 158 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 1: his agenda very well. He should have been focused on 159 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: the tax cut and his budget first, doing DOGE and 160 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: the budget, doing all of that in the first six months. 161 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: And then if you read Owen Cass, who was basically 162 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: a big defender ideologically of what Donald Trump is trying 163 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: to do in the New York time, he laid out 164 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: a more rational way he could have done this. And ironically, 165 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: you know, he even talked about creating ninety day windows. Well, 166 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: here we are with a ninety day window. It does 167 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: appear as if that the most I think what we're 168 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 1: likely to see is these tariffs will come back, but 169 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: it's probably going to be a bit more methodical. 170 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 2: It does. 171 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: My guess is Peter Navarro has been shoved back into 172 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 1: the line a little bit of advisors. But it doesn't 173 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: mean Donald Trump's belief in tariffs is going to go 174 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: away overnight, even if Peter Navarro is not in the 175 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: room or as sitting as close to Trump in his 176 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 1: ear as everybody else. And it is clear that Howard Lutnick, 177 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 1: the Commerce Secretary, another big advocate of this tariff policy, 178 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 1: is also wearing out his welcome with some staff and 179 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: with some key supporters. So I do think the most 180 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: polarizing figures behind this policy, Peter Navarro and Howard Lutnik, 181 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: are you're going to see them sort of be pushed. 182 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 2: Aside a little bit. 183 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: These tariffs are going to come back, but it's more 184 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: likely now that they're going to be a bit more 185 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: methodical and that there'll be at least a little bit 186 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: more predictability. I don't know if they're going to be 187 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: any less impactful though on the consumer, and if the 188 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: cost of living goes up on consumers, even if it's 189 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: just a directed tariff on China. I am skeptical that 190 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: that is going to be something that Republicans can continue 191 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 1: to overcome. No no, no, no, no, you must sacrifice to 192 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: go get China. I am skeptical that even the most 193 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: devoted of MAGA folks will have the patients beyond a 194 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 1: few months here or there. 195 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 2: But look, it. 196 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: Is I could tell you this. There are a lot 197 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: of Republicans that are relieved. It's sort of like one 198 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 1: of those moments. Okay, they got through this crisis. But 199 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: let's remember we're still not at the eightieth day of 200 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: this presidency, let alone day one hundred. 201 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 2: We still have at least. 202 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 1: More than a thous days left in Donald Trump, So 203 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 1: one thousand days of this potential policy gyration, instability. Ask yourself, 204 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: is business really going to assume everything is now normal 205 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: and the way it was, or are they now going 206 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 1: to have to take this moment where they have breathing 207 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: room and essentially prepare for more disruption and more instability. 208 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: In my conversations already with some business leaders over the 209 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: last twenty four hours, it's pretty clear now they're going 210 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: to use this breathing room to essentially truly prepare for 211 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,560 Speaker 1: some of these potentially worst case scenarios when it comes 212 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: to international trade. So there's sort of my quick sort 213 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: of twenty four hours later reaction. Of course, in the 214 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 1: era of Trump, you always have to be careful. What 215 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: you think is happening in the moment can suddenly change 216 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 1: on a dime, as many a person on Wall Street 217 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: has learned. But for now, I think that's the situation 218 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 1: where it is. 219 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 2: He has at. 220 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:04,319 Speaker 1: Least stopped the police bleeding that was starting to become 221 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 1: a gusher. Really had he continued to follow through with 222 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: these tariffs the way they were executed a lot of 223 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: times in these solo shows, one of the things I 224 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 1: want to do for you do in these shows is 225 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 1: a few things I want to sort of deal with 226 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: what I call errors and omissions, Meaning there's some topics 227 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:25,719 Speaker 1: I didn't get to in the week that I kind 228 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: of wanted to give, you know, not necessarily a hot take, 229 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 1: but call it sort of hot analysis that I think 230 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: is at least sharing with you how a development in 231 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 1: a political race is sort of changing my thinking about 232 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 1: the battle for control. 233 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 2: In twenty twenty six. So I'm going to get to 234 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 2: that in a minute. 235 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: And then there's some omissions, some things that either I 236 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,079 Speaker 1: meant to do and I never said or I promised, 237 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: Like in the last episode, I talked about sort of 238 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: my take on what's wrong with the current state of 239 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: media and journalism, and I sort of told you, well, 240 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: I have this whole thing about OJ Simpson. I said, 241 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: I'm going to put a pin in then and get 242 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: back to you. Well, I'm pulling the pin back out. 243 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: So I'm going to start my sort of clean up 244 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: section of this of this episode of the podcast with 245 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: sort of finishing my analysis there about. 246 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 2: The OJ Simpson angle to this. 247 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: So when you think about sort of how the media 248 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: became what it has been, very narrative driven, right, everything 249 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: seems to be about narrative rather than you know, about 250 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: policy in the moment or about the facts in the moment. 251 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: You know, I think one of the great sort of mistakes, 252 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 1: big mistakes that big media has made in the last 253 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: in my lifetime. I go back to nineteen ninety four, 254 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: and I know for some of you listening in this, 255 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: you're like, Hey, that's before I was born. What do 256 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 1: I give a shit about that? Well, here's what happened 257 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety four. Nineteen ninety four, we had one 258 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: of the at the time, we had one table news 259 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 1: channel at the time, seeing it there were not three 260 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 1: yet there was just one, And in nineteen ninety four 261 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: we had arguably the most famous crime. 262 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 2: Of the twentieth century. One of the most. 263 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 1: Famous people in America was accused of double murder. O. J. 264 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: Simpson was a football star and a TV star, actually 265 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: a move and frankly a movie star, and everybody loved OJ. 266 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 2: Whatever. Nobody didn't. You know. 267 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: Now, if you look up OJ, you think, oh, you know, 268 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: he's this. Before nineteen ninety four, people just loved OJ Simpson. 269 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: He was just a football hero. OJ Simpson being accused 270 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 1: of double murder was the equivalent of if Tom Brady, 271 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 1: Peyton Manning, Derek Jeter, somebody liked that. That's how that's 272 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 1: that's how. 273 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 2: Love beloved OJ was. 274 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: It was beloved the way a Peyton Manning's beloved or 275 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: Tom Brady. You'd be like, well, there's no way that 276 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: guy would do that, because he was in our. 277 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 2: Living rooms all the time. So it was a big deal. 278 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong, it was a big deal, but 279 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: it was entertainment big deal, not hard news big deal. 280 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: But CNN made an interesting decision. Before that, CNN had 281 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: a reputation of being boy. They were covering the First 282 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: Iraq War, better than any news organization had ever covered 283 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: a war. It had really looked like they'd sort of 284 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 1: redefined what twenty four hour. 285 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 2: News meant, so they were writing the rule book. 286 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: There really wasn't twenty four hour news organizations before there 287 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: was CNN, and it was really seen as sort of 288 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 1: a high pillar of journalism, big jay journalism, if you will. 289 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: And they made a ratings decision. It was the first 290 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: time they made a decision. They saw that we had 291 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: something called court TV at the time, and they were 292 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: taking advantage of cameras in the courtroom, and court TV 293 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: was covering all the preliminary hearings. And CNN had never 294 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: worried about ratings before noticed court TV was outrating them, 295 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: and they were like, whoa, maybe we got to cover. 296 00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 2: The OJ trial. 297 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: Well, cover the OJ trial they did, and CNA made 298 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: so much money covering the OJ trial, dedicating hours every 299 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: day just to the trial, with occasional interruptions of other 300 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: news happening around the world, that both NBC and Fox 301 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: decided they too were going to start cable news channels. 302 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: They didn't start cable news channels because they thought the 303 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: public wants more news. They started cable news channels because 304 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: they saw a look at CNN did at a big 305 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: event and how much money they made. We're not going 306 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: to leave that kind of money on the table. And 307 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: from then on what it did and what I believe 308 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: that sort of the the sort of the bad gene 309 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 1: that this planted in the media business. Was this before 310 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 1: OJ Simpson news divisions that were owned by big media companies, 311 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: as long as they didn't lose money, they were fine. 312 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 1: After OJ Simpson media executives and the bean counters said oh, well, 313 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: you can make money on news if you make it interesting. 314 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: And from then on I argue that the television news 315 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 1: business and frankly the news business in general truly started 316 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 1: to figure out how do we package this to make 317 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: it more interesting, to make more clicks and eyeballs and 318 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: all this stuff. And of course social media comes along, 319 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 1: algorithms comes along, and all of this ends up on steroids. 320 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: But when you're asking, whenever I'm asked the question is 321 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 1: you know, how did we get to where we got 322 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 1: with this current state of media and journalism. 323 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 2: I do think one of the. 324 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 1: Sort of the core mistakes, the initial mistakes that was made, 325 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: was a decision that the single most important news event 326 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: in America for a six month period was when a 327 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,679 Speaker 1: news organization decided the trial of a celebrity accused of 328 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: murder is more important than war in Central Europe or 329 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: the battleover whether there should be national. 330 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 2: Health care for everybody. 331 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 1: These were some of the stories that were taking place 332 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,120 Speaker 1: at the time, the advent of the internet, all these 333 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: other news stories that would have normally gotten coverage but 334 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: didn't because of Ojay. 335 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 2: So anyway, I. 336 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: Do think the the we sometimes forget that, you know, 337 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 1: our business made some mistakes that created the conditions that 338 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: sort of created this media circus that we all now 339 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: find ourselves participants and viewers of these days. So there's 340 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: that a few other things that I want to point out. 341 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: Tuesday was an election day. An incumbent mayor lost in 342 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 1: Saint Louis. Why am I making a big deal of 343 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 1: this because I have a feeling that it's going to 344 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: be a bad year for incumbents. And if you want 345 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 1: to know, if you want to look for canaries in 346 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: the coal mine about the midterm elections, keep an eye 347 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: on some there's a lot of vulnerable mayors. We've already had, 348 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 1: you know, a new mayor elected in San Francisco. We 349 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: got a new mayor in Saint Louis, Eric Adams of 350 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: Meeric New York City is unpopular. I doubt he one's reelection. 351 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: The point is these off off year elections when you 352 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: start to see incumbents go down, and you know there 353 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: may have been for parochial reasons and this so that, 354 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: but it tells you there's a vibe for change. There's 355 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: a vibe for change out there. So just something to 356 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: keep in mind. Texas Senate probably the single biggest development 357 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: in the battle for control of Congress in twenty twenty six. 358 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 1: Why am I saying this is a big deal because 359 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: it's two parts number one. This is sort of a 360 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,959 Speaker 1: huge showdown between two wings of the Republican Party. I 361 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: still think it's possible that what Donald Trump is doing 362 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 1: with tariffs is going to fracture the Republican Party between 363 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 1: the sort of think of it as the Romney Bush 364 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: wing free trade chamber of Commerce wing on one side 365 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: and the populist nationalist Donald Trump wing on the other. Well, 366 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: we're going to see a massive, sort of heavyweight primary 367 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: fight in Texas. John Cornyn sort of more of the 368 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 1: avatar of the traditional version of Republicanism pre Donald Trump, 369 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: and then the Attorney general there, Ken Paxton, who is 370 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: very much a trumpy Trump more MAGA related, believes in 371 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:03,359 Speaker 1: using government, weaponizing governm in a way that many Conservatives 372 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,159 Speaker 1: pre Trump wouldn't have felt comfortable doing with government. So 373 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 1: this is going to be a massify. A Ken Paxton 374 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 1: victory in the primary makes it realistic that Colin all Read, 375 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: the likely Democratic candidate who lost the last time to 376 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: ten Cruz. But this competitive certainly raised a ton of money. 377 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: I think Colin Allred has us the ingredients are all 378 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: there for him to win this Senate. See if Paxton's 379 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 1: nominee and Donald Trump's approval rating is hovering close to 380 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: forty percent, That's how that would happen. And if Texas 381 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 1: is suddenly put into play in the Senate, well then 382 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,120 Speaker 1: suddenly the idea of Democrats having a twenty or thirty 383 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 1: percent shot that could take in control of the Senate 384 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: is actually realistic. Right now, I put their percentage chances 385 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: in the in the teens. This is a tough map 386 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,439 Speaker 1: for them, but if they if they get that, you 387 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 1: know that primary now in Texas, North Carolina, Maine, you 388 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 1: know Democrats are defending a lot of open seats still, 389 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,360 Speaker 1: and I think that's going to be the reason why 390 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: they don't win the Senate ultimately. But suddenly you're starting 391 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: to see just a few more pieces being put on 392 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,640 Speaker 1: the on the on the game board here that might 393 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:12,919 Speaker 1: give Democrats a boxer's chance. So those are my omissions 394 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 1: and corrections clarifications. Again, I want to try to do 395 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,639 Speaker 1: that as best I can, especially if I make mistakes. 396 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 1: By the way I use the word, I use the 397 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 1: whole construction of seriously and literally, and I did it 398 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,879 Speaker 1: while on CNN with my friend Brad Todd, who is 399 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: a Republican strategist, and he says, Hey, you brought up 400 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: seriously and literally. 401 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 2: Do you take Trump seriously or literally? 402 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 1: Well, Brad wanted me to remind people that he is 403 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 1: the first person to ever use that those turn of 404 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 1: phrase and said, hey, people are taking him to literally, 405 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: you just should take him seriously. By the way, I 406 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: debate whether which what you should do literally or seriously 407 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: with Trump all the time. 408 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 2: I'm very curious if you guys have questions about that. 409 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: And speaking of questions, I promised that I would answer 410 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 1: and I'm going to try to answer three questions here. 411 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 2: I'm going to try to get out of it. You know, 412 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 2: I don't want to linger too long on your feet 413 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 2: on days that I don't have interviews. 414 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: But I promised three questions here. So here's the ask 415 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:21,199 Speaker 1: Chuck segments. 416 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 2: Ask Chuck. Yeah, I got some cool music now, so. 417 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: It's a little bit more fun, right, ask Chuck. 418 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 2: I love it all right. Question one. 419 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: Over the years, we've seen increasing partisanship and dysfunction in 420 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 1: American politics and the journalism that covers it. 421 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 2: What can ordinary. 422 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: Citizens who consume political news do to be part of 423 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: the solution and not part of the problem of hyperpartisanship 424 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: in the media and politics. That question comes from Michael Hammond. Well, look, Michael, 425 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 1: I kind of think the problem with our journalism. 426 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 2: These days it's not locally sourced. 427 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,479 Speaker 1: You know, I want my political news the way I 428 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 1: want my ingredients at my favorite restaurants in Arlington, Virginia, 429 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: which is I want those ingredients locally sourced. Well, I 430 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 1: want my political news locally sourced. And so if I'm 431 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,159 Speaker 1: going to proclaim myself the newszar here and if I 432 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: could be the newsar and try to fix this problem here, 433 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: the biggest thing I would do is essentially cut half 434 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 1: of the political journalists in Washington and kick them out 435 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,879 Speaker 1: of Washington and send them to all fifty states capitals 436 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: and all two hundred say, major metro communities in this 437 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 1: country to start reporting on the impact of government on 438 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 1: the ground. This is the way political coverage used to work. 439 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: Washington bureaus for smaller papers around the country did the 440 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 1: job of explaining what government was doing from the perspective 441 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: of your community, rather than top down coverage that just 442 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 1: told you generally what legislation was going to do. We 443 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: actually had these journalists who are in Washington, d c. 444 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 1: Covering their specific member of Congress, explaining to their local 445 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: readers how those local members voted, how the bill would 446 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 1: impact community, you know, street Y or building X, and 447 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,480 Speaker 1: what money would be spent right local, and people would 448 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,119 Speaker 1: have a better idea what government did. And if you 449 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 1: wonder why people aren't sure what government does in their community. Literally, 450 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: government trees are falling around forests all over the country 451 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 1: and there is no one there to hear the tree 452 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 1: or see the tree fall in the community for us, 453 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 1: So the biggest thing we could do is try to 454 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: consume your political news locally. Try to find good, trusted 455 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 1: local folks that you trust, that understand your community and 456 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 1: see Washington through that prism. Look, this is one of 457 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,720 Speaker 1: the this is what I'm trying to work on. Figure out, 458 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: if you know, can I help build a media company 459 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: that can help support and expand and encourage the expand 460 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: of new local news and people to do this. But 461 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: you know, it's a great question that you asked. I 462 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 1: think the solution is we've got we need. We need 463 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: a thousand new local publications, a thousand new not not ten, 464 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: not fifteen, a thousand community driven news organizations that I 465 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 1: think could help clean up the information ecosystem. All right, 466 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 1: we go to the next question comes from a fellow 467 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: gw alum, Drew Archer. He says he's an avid listener. 468 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,919 Speaker 1: Appreciate it overget like and subscribe, Like and subscribe. Did 469 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: I tell you to like and subscribe? He says, I 470 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: have a few questions, but I think I'm just going 471 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 1: to take they're kind of merging into one here it is. 472 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: He says, do you think there's a straight line from 473 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,359 Speaker 1: Obama deciding not to go after the big banks in 474 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 1: the aftermath of two thousand and eight and the rise 475 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump, He says, I think there's a pretty 476 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 1: good case to make for it. But I'm curious about 477 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,399 Speaker 1: your perspective too. Do you think Bernie would have defeated 478 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 1: Trump in sixteen had he won the Democratic nomination. I 479 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,640 Speaker 1: think another thing worth noting here is ours didn't love 480 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 1: it in twenty sixteen, but they listened to their voters 481 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,919 Speaker 1: and Trump won. I think the D's undeniably put their 482 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 1: thumb on the scale for Hillary and didn't listen to 483 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 1: their voters. Same thing could be said for Biden twenty 484 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 1: twenty four. He gives me a go hippos. That's a 485 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,159 Speaker 1: real that's a real sort of deep cut for GW 486 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 1: alums the hippo business. For now, I'll just say, go revolutionaries. 487 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 1: I'm going to save the go do your own rabbit 488 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 1: hole on the hippos and try to understand what GW 489 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,640 Speaker 1: people mean about hippos. But let me answer his question there. 490 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 1: I'll never forget a line. Rom Emmanuel, who was chief 491 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: of staff, the first chief of staff for President Obama, 492 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:36,120 Speaker 1: said he wanted to do some Old Testament justice when 493 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,159 Speaker 1: it came to the financial crisis. I do think the 494 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: fact that nobody was frog marched, we didn't see anybody 495 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 1: in orange jumpsuits. Nobody was held accountable for doing what 496 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 1: was done to the world economy, let alone the American 497 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 1: economy in the housing crisis. So I do think the 498 00:26:54,520 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 1: lack of justice in this was, in hindsight a big mistake. 499 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 1: I think another big mistake, which actually lawmakers learn learned 500 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 1: from when they handled COVID, was they didn't throw enough 501 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,359 Speaker 1: money at the problem. I think you know COVID, and 502 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 1: you could argue maybe we threw too much money at 503 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,679 Speaker 1: the problem, but the choice was recession or inflation. And 504 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:19,639 Speaker 1: I think when you look at what happened during the 505 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: Great Recession and what happened during the inflationary period of 506 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 1: the last four years, trust me, most Americans would take 507 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: inflation over recession every day of the week and twice 508 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: on Sundays. So that is another reason. I think the 509 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,880 Speaker 1: the not finding a way to save every house five 510 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: hundred thousand or less should have not been foreclosed on. 511 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 1: That should have been the PPP loan, if you will, 512 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 1: of the Great Recession. So I do think that also 513 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: contributed to it, but I don't think you're wrong about that. 514 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 1: As for Bernie Sanders, I think now I come to 515 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 1: the conclusion that Burne and he probably beats Trump. I 516 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 1: do think that Clinton last name was the problem there. 517 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 1: I think clearly voters wanted the establishment elites out of here. 518 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 1: In many ways, between the Iraq War and the Great Recession, 519 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 1: the assumption was the Clintons, the Bushes, all these people 520 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 1: were responsible for this clean house, get rid of all. 521 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 1: First the Democrats cleaned house and they got rid of 522 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,119 Speaker 1: the Clintons and nominated Obama. And then what did Obama do? 523 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 1: He put his thumb on the scale for Clinton. What 524 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,439 Speaker 1: did Donald Trump do? He ran against the Bushes and 525 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,199 Speaker 1: got rid of him, ran against the Clintons and got 526 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 1: rid of them. So under this scenario where Bernie's the 527 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 1: outsider that slays the political dragon on his side of 528 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 1: the aisle, I do think that Bernie is probably a 529 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 1: much stronger candidate in the general election against Donald Trump. 530 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 1: There's no doubt, And we see it now, right, and 531 00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 1: it's obvious now in Trump two point zero and his 532 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 1: success in that election that Bernie voters in twenty sixteen 533 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 1: were very much more Trump curious, in Kennedy curious than 534 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 1: they ever were Clinton curious or Biden curious. 535 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 2: So I think now. 536 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 1: It's pretty easy to see that in hindsight. But I'll 537 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 1: tell you this, if Obama doesn't put his finger on 538 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 1: the scale for Hillary Clinton, I actually think there's six 539 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 1: or seven other candidates that jump in this race in 540 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 1: twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, and I don't think Sanders 541 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 1: ever gets traction, but somebody else would have. And I 542 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 1: think somebody else would have beat her potentially, And you're right, 543 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: I do think it had it been a fair had 544 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 1: she not been had such frankly support among rank and 545 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 1: file insiders, which she had earned that support, I would 546 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:53,360 Speaker 1: argue Bernie Sanders thumbed his nose at the party. So yes, 547 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 1: there was the thumb on the scale for Clinton, but 548 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 1: arguably she paid her dues to make sure that thumb 549 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,080 Speaker 1: was on her scale. Right, She went to pancake Breakfast, 550 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: and she raised money for the party. Bernie wouldn't even 551 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 1: register as a Democrat. So I understand sometimes the frustration 552 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 1: among Sanders supporters, but you know, he did not exactly 553 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 1: try to become a member of the Democratic Party and 554 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: good standing. In fact, ask yourself, is he a member 555 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party? The answer is no. Do you 556 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:21,960 Speaker 1: know how many times he's promised that he would become 557 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 1: a member of the Democratic Party, since he came so 558 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 1: close to getting that nomination quite a few times and 559 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 1: he's still not a member of the Democratic Party. All right, 560 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 1: last question then, I'm going to take and there's others 561 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,479 Speaker 1: that you guys have sent in, and we'll get to that. 562 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 1: Here's a question, long time, long, long time listener, all 563 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 1: the way from uh from My Day's Hotline, Meet the Press, 564 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 1: et cetera. This person now lives in Milwaukee from a 565 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,720 Speaker 1: farm in northern Ozaki County. I hope I said that 566 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 1: right in Sheboygan and he visits Sheboygan County a lot. 567 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 1: I love to say the word Sheboygan. Who doesn't like 568 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: to say Sheboygan feels like you want to It's like shappoopy, Sheboygan. 569 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 1: Sheboygan anyway, talk to a ton of people, and he's 570 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 1: amazed at the number of people who voted for Trump 571 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,840 Speaker 1: strictly because the Democratic candidate was a woman in both 572 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen and twenty twenty four. Yet of all the 573 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 1: posters I listen to, no mention of this at all. 574 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 1: Ilse have friends who have cabins up north, and I 575 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,720 Speaker 1: hear the same from them strictly a Wisconsin thing taboo 576 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 1: to report this. I'm amazed every time I hear a 577 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen or twenty twenty four analysis and no mention 578 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 1: of this. John Straff, Well, John, what's the gender of 579 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 1: one of the of one of your of one of 580 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 1: the two US senators in Wisconsin? 581 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 2: A woman? Tammy Baldwin. She's and it's she's a lesbian. 582 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 1: And she's won three times now, twenty twelve, twenty eighteen, 583 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 1: or excuse mean she's won in twenty twelve, She's won 584 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,760 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, She's won in a presidential year, she's 585 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 1: wanted a midterm year, and she won again in twenty 586 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 1: twenty four. So I think that I here's the thing 587 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: with this question. It is hard to crawl inside somebody's head. 588 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 1: I will go to my grave believe being that Hillary 589 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:04,200 Speaker 1: Smith defeats Donald Trump, but Hillary Clinton couldn't, meaning I 590 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 1: believe the last name was much more toxic than gender 591 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 1: on that front. I'm not saying those voters don't exist. 592 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,000 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that, you know, and I've certainly seen 593 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,800 Speaker 1: that there's some evidence that, particularly that African American men 594 00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 1: may not have been as comfortable voting for an African 595 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 1: American one for president. I've had plenty of African American 596 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:26,760 Speaker 1: men in the political sphere claim this. To me, it's 597 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 1: a very The reason polsters don't bring it up is 598 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 1: some of these questions are things you can't pull because 599 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 1: people lie. They give polsters the correct answer, They give 600 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 1: polsters the answer that they think they should give versus 601 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: perhaps how they feel. But when you're in that voting booth, 602 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 1: nobody gets to see it, right, so then you do 603 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 1: what you do. So I'm not going to sit here 604 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 1: and roll that out, And I do think that that 605 00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 1: I won't be surprised if there is more hesitancy among 606 00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 1: Democratic Party elites about supporting major women candidates in twenty two. 607 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 1: I'll be very curious whether it's AOC Gretchen Whitmer in particular, 608 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: I mean Klobashar, whether that the perception, or even Kamala 609 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,640 Speaker 1: Harris if she decides to run again, that this conventional 610 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 1: wisdom maybe women can't win or not right now in 611 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 1: this presidency, that it will could become self fulfilling. But 612 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 1: I really don't believe in either case. I think that 613 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,960 Speaker 1: there is more evidence. I'm not saying those voters don't exist. 614 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 1: And guess what, I'm not a woman, and plenty of 615 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,959 Speaker 1: women in my life disagree with me on this, So 616 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 1: I just I throw it all out there. I'm not 617 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 1: going to sit here and say that I'm being definitive here. 618 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:44,480 Speaker 1: But I think the data shows that the other factors 619 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 1: matter too. And I think Clinton's last name being part 620 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,959 Speaker 1: of the longtime Democratic elite, she was not changed. 621 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 2: She was considered more status quo. I think. 622 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 1: I mean the fact is in theory, being a woman 623 00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 1: should have been seen as a change agent. One would 624 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:04,960 Speaker 1: argue she sort of leaned away from that. Some Look, 625 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,880 Speaker 1: she's been there, nobody's been more over analyzing Hillary Clinton. 626 00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:10,839 Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna you know, I don't. I don't 627 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 1: And here I go doing the same thing again. But 628 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 1: I'm I'm you know, I want to see what Hillary 629 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 1: Smith would have done, Hillary Rodham, Hillary, you know. But 630 00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 1: so there's that, and you know, this election, the incumbent president, 631 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,359 Speaker 1: I don't know what sitting vice president could have won 632 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 1: an election when the incumbent vice president that was the 633 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,960 Speaker 1: running mate had an approval rating under forty five percent. 634 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:41,280 Speaker 1: Hubert Humphrey couldn't win when LBJ was unpopular. Al Gore 635 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: couldn't win when Bill Clinton personal character was unpopular. George 636 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,360 Speaker 1: hw did win as a sitting vice president. Why because 637 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:55,760 Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan was popular? So I you know, had Biden 638 00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 1: been popular and Kamala Harris couldn't win. I think there's 639 00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 1: a strong argument about gender or race and gender, but 640 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:08,399 Speaker 1: I just can't discount that aspect to it. Anyway, I'm 641 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 1: gonna leave it here as I promised. 642 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 2: I hope you enjoyed this. 643 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 1: Truncated version of the Thursday Podcast. Remember you too can 644 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:23,240 Speaker 1: ask me questions, Senator do ask Chuck at the chucktodcast 645 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 1: dot com. Is I like to say, don't forget the 646 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:31,360 Speaker 1: Just like the George Washington University and the Ohio State University, 647 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast, you can't forget the the. So with that, 648 00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 1: I'm gonna sign up for another twenty four hours or 649 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,440 Speaker 1: so and hopefully I'll see you soon until we upload again.