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Speaker 1: What's up, boys and girls? How are you welcome to

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Speaker 1: a very special, a very big podcast for the Daily Juice.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perrault. This podcast being brought to

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Speaker 1: by Bett MGM, and it's all thanks to Bettingpros dot Com.

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Speaker 1: All right, So here's the thing about today. And I'm

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Speaker 1: in all these different contests. I'm in the DraftKings contest.

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Speaker 1: I'm in the circum million contest. Betting Pros is running

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Speaker 1: their own expert pick contest in which they wanted me

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Speaker 1: to pick five games against the spread and four games

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Speaker 1: with the total and then a money line play at all.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's got all these different things going on

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Speaker 1: right now. So I've been trying to figure out, like

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Speaker 1: how do I do this with everything? How do I

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Speaker 1: give you guys exactly where not just what I'm betting,

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Speaker 1: so what I'm playing, because I've got these contests and

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Speaker 1: so it's been a little bit of a struggle for

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Speaker 1: me over the last day. And when I tell you

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Speaker 1: that I am bleeping tired right now, I am just blasted.

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Speaker 1: I mean, not drunk tired. What a day, what a

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Speaker 1: two day stretch? My whole body is aching. So I'm

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Speaker 1: just I'm looking forward to today, just sitting down for

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Speaker 1: a Sunday watching football, watching the NFL. My wife has

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Speaker 1: sent our daughter she's going to a friends today. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna be alone to sweat games, to watch football. I

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Speaker 1: just I have my direct TV setup. It's just unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of really cool things coming today. I

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Speaker 1: cannot wait to get going. We've had a really good week,

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Speaker 1: so I've been a little concerned, like, all right, wait,

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Speaker 1: don't want to come out of the gate and start

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Speaker 1: like firing things off. I asked Dan Harris, who is

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Speaker 1: the editor in chief of Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 1: I was like, how many games can I talk about

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Speaker 1: on the podcast? And he was like, as many as

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Speaker 1: you want. So, like I decided because we gave you

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Speaker 1: the plays yesterday for the Circa and for the DraftKings,

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Speaker 1: and we'll do that every Saturday. And because of you know,

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Speaker 1: I am betting a lot today, but I have all

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Speaker 1: these different picks and stuff going, so I thought it

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Speaker 1: would be you know, let's just talk about what I'm

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Speaker 1: betting money on, right, Let's talk about my money plays,

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Speaker 1: not my fantasy plays, not my you know, you know,

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Speaker 1: DraftKings or Circle plays like what am I betting today?

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Speaker 1: So this is, you know, the idea of this podcast

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Speaker 1: to talk about where my money is going when I

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Speaker 1: am betting, and things I recommend for you to fade

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Speaker 1: or follow. So for me, this week has been pretty good.

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Speaker 1: So we're twelve and seven this week heading into Sunday,

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Speaker 1: our last day, we're up three point nine units. After

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Speaker 1: a bad week last week, we've bounced back with a

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Speaker 1: winning week and we've just sort of been stacking days

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Speaker 1: on top of days, and we've had a really good

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Speaker 1: run of four consecutive winning days. Here we are going

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Speaker 1: into the first NFL Sunday and it's like, hmm okay,

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Speaker 1: because it's going to be crazy. It always is crazy

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Speaker 1: in the NFL, but this is COVID, no preseason games,

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Speaker 1: you know, nothing really to look at in terms of

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Speaker 1: on film, So it's all reading and research and I've

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Speaker 1: done plenty of it. But it is going to be

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Speaker 1: an interesting game. So what I've decided to do here

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Speaker 1: is give you five plays today, five plays that I

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Speaker 1: am betting that we can go and sweat together. Here.

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Speaker 1: These are my five favorite plays. You guys have been

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Speaker 1: asking me this a couple times on probably two or

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Speaker 1: three times over the last week on DMS on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: you've said, Matt, what's your favorite play today? And I

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Speaker 1: actually don't really do that because here's the thing. If

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Speaker 1: I'm going to bet a side or a game or

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Speaker 1: a total or whatever, I have to believe it. It

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Speaker 1: has to pass a certain threshold for me to say yes.

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Speaker 1: So like it's hard to rank them because they all

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Speaker 1: they've all passed this threshold in my brain and my preparations, like, yes,

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Speaker 1: this is a game I'm going to bet on. So

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Speaker 1: just so we're all on the same page there. That's

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Speaker 1: kind of when I tell you, here are five bets

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Speaker 1: I'm making. These are the bets I'm making. It's not

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Speaker 1: likely I like one more than the other. It's just

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Speaker 1: five bets that I am making, and five bets that

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Speaker 1: I like. But before I get to the plays, the

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Speaker 1: five picks that we're gonna give to you guys coming

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Speaker 1: up here, Really it's six, I guess though, because I

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Speaker 1: gave you the teaser, so the teaser still an effect.

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Speaker 1: So five plays today really six plays for NFL Sunday

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the picks and the place

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Speaker 1: and the fun for a Sunday. So we're off to

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Speaker 1: a good week. Let's finish it off. We've had a

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Speaker 1: good week. Let's finish it off strong. Okay, let's start

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Speaker 1: with three sides and two totals. Okay, those are our

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Speaker 1: five picks here, three sides and two totals. I am

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Speaker 1: starting with the New Orleans Saints because it's the game.

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Speaker 1: Everybody's gonna talk about Saints in the bucks. Here's my

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Speaker 1: thing about the Saints at home. They are a very

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Speaker 1: good team at home, and they know that divisional games

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Speaker 1: are incredibly important. This is a team that has been

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Speaker 1: listening to Brady, Brady, Brady over and over and over again.

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Speaker 1: This has been a team listening to gorong and here

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Speaker 1: come the Buccaneers. Until I see it, I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to bet it until I see this Gronkowski, this this

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady led offense. Mike Evans is not playing in

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Speaker 1: this game. Well, doubtful for this game until I see it,

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Speaker 1: until I see the Brady magic, until I see him

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Speaker 1: out there, and I'm gonna throw up. Okay, I'm telling

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Speaker 1: you right now, as a Patriot fan, all this crap

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Speaker 1: we've gone through over the last six months has dulled

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Speaker 1: and completely distracted us all who are in Patriots Nation

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Speaker 1: from Tom Brady playing with the Bucks. So maybe this

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Speaker 1: is this is a biased pick, but I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: Not during the pandemic, not with a quarterback with an

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Speaker 1: offensive line that I'm not sure of, Not with a

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Speaker 1: quarterback that you look at his the way he plays

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Speaker 1: and the way the arians has played, Arians gets his

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Speaker 1: quarterback killed. Okay, all the time, all these you know,

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Speaker 1: the picks that the picks on Winston, It's like, oh,

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Speaker 1: Jamis throws tons of picks. Yeah. He also had a

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Speaker 1: real tough time holding the ball for too long because

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Speaker 1: the route's being run it as part of the offense.

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Speaker 1: So until I see this new look offense, it's Breeze,

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Speaker 1: it's Alvin Kamara with a new contract, it's Michael Thomas. Look,

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Speaker 1: I'm just taking the New Orleans Saints. I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 1: the three and a half. Okay, if you want to

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Speaker 1: buy the half a point, it's a little expensive. It's

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Speaker 1: minus one forty five to buy it to three. I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna do that because I do think the Saint's

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Speaker 1: gonna win this game. I know everybody is just talking

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Speaker 1: about this is the dog pick of the week. Okay,

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Speaker 1: here's the thing about the NFL. When everyone's going one

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Speaker 1: way and everyone's taking the points because it's Brady and

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Speaker 1: here he goes, nah, man, give me New Orleans. This

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Speaker 1: is the best team in the NFL, the most complete

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Speaker 1: team in the NFL. In Week one, with the divisional

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Speaker 1: rival coming in lay the three and a half points,

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Speaker 1: New Orleans wins. In Covers number two, the Buffalo bill

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Speaker 1: is taking on the New York Jets. As I've told

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Speaker 1: you here on the Daily Juice one of my fade plays,

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Speaker 1: I am fading the Jets and their win total. I

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Speaker 1: think the Jets completely suck. I think their coach is

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Speaker 1: a disaster. I'm not sold on Sam Darnold. He said

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Speaker 1: a rough run of it, but I'm not sold on him.

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Speaker 1: I think this team is gonna tank. If they're real bad.

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Speaker 1: They may be in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, the kid

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Speaker 1: out of Clemson. But look, this is a tough, tough

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Speaker 1: test here to start off, because Sean McDermott's team has

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Speaker 1: a lot of hype and they want to put their

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Speaker 1: foot in the ground and show that they are the

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Speaker 1: team to beat in the AFC East, and they very

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Speaker 1: well might be. Do not like the Jets, do not

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Speaker 1: like them to keep it close. They lose, I mean

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Speaker 1: they trade it away and have left let so many

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Speaker 1: talented players leave from last year's team. On that roster,

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Speaker 1: nah Man under a touchdown Buffalo Bills minus six and

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Speaker 1: a half. I'm laying it with Buffalo minus six and

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Speaker 1: a half. And I told you guys yesterday for our

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Speaker 1: third play here from a side perspective that I really

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Speaker 1: like the Cardinals a lot, and catching six and a

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Speaker 1: half from the San Francisco forty nine ers is a

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Speaker 1: really really cool thing for me because I think they

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Speaker 1: can win this game outright. This is another popular dog play,

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Speaker 1: which I don't like because now everybody's on it. But

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Speaker 1: I just think because of Hopkins joining this offense that

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray's gonna have a monster year and year two

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Speaker 1: for Kingsbury. There's always a hangover here when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the forty nine ers and any team that loses

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, there's always a hangover. So this is

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Speaker 1: no fans, no home field advantage. But here's the one

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Speaker 1: hook I'll tell you here I'm taking the Cardinals at

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Speaker 1: plus six and a half, but the weather's a major

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Speaker 1: factor and this game might not be played. So if

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Speaker 1: this game is not played, we kind of get screwed

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Speaker 1: here because of the Patriots teaser. If you missed the

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Speaker 1: podcast yesterday, we're teasing the Patriots from six and a

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Speaker 1: half down to half a point, and then we are

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Speaker 1: teasing the Cardinals up from seven to thirteen. That's the

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Speaker 1: teaser we gave you on yesterday's Daily Juice. So if

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals game, they they say that it may be postponed,

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Speaker 1: so maybe they played on Monday instead of on Sunday

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Speaker 1: due to the wildfires in the Northern California region region.

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Speaker 1: I'm really hoping they play this game because I wanted

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Speaker 1: to go off as scheduled. If it doesn't, it may

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Speaker 1: impact some things. You know, check your house rules, but

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Speaker 1: the bet may be scrapped. You may have to rebt

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Speaker 1: it different odds. So let's hope that everything goes off

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Speaker 1: as schedules and it's the Cardinals plus six and a half. However,

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Speaker 1: if by some way this game is not played, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna give you a backup. So if this game's not played,

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Speaker 1: in a scrap it. My backup play to this is

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Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens with a line that is coming down

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Speaker 1: in our favor. Open it eight down to seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. Watch for this. If this line goes to seven.

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Speaker 1: I love the Ravens here at home against the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 1: It's like all over again, right. People are now are

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Speaker 1: believing in a new head coach and all this time

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Speaker 1: Baker's gonna figure it out, nah Man, Not against this team,

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Speaker 1: not against Lamar Jackson. I think Dobbins is a great

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Speaker 1: pick and a great rookie. We saw what Clyde Edwards

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Speaker 1: Hilaire did for the Chiefs. I think Dobbins could be

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Speaker 1: equally as effective here for the Ravens running the football.

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Speaker 1: So if the Cardinals game is not played or postponed,

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Speaker 1: if they push it to Monday, the backup third play

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Speaker 1: is Ravens minus seven and a half at home against

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Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns. I just I love this. Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 1: let offense everybody does, and against a Cleveland Browns team.

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Speaker 1: I know there's all these stats about like watch out

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Speaker 1: for divisional dogs in the first couple of weeks of this.

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Speaker 1: I don't care about trends. I quote trends a lot too, okay,

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Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, trends don't matter.

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Speaker 1: You gotta realize this, Trends don't matter. Trends help us.

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Speaker 1: They're kind of like a road map, but at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, you have to walk the road yourself.

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Speaker 1: You have to be on the road with rubber, you know,

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Speaker 1: your shoes on the on the asphalt. So just because

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Speaker 1: it happened one way before has no real bearing as

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Speaker 1: to how it happens now. So like I just as

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Speaker 1: we go forward again, I use trends because I have

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Speaker 1: to write, I have to justify why I'm picking something

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Speaker 1: and why I'm feeling one way. So it's the research

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Speaker 1: and trends. But if you're betting things just because it's

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Speaker 1: trending one way, like this whole referee trend, it's just like,

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Speaker 1: come on, guys, it has to be a tool, it's

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Speaker 1: a factor. It can't be the only reason why you're

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Speaker 1: betting something like oh, I'm gonna go ahead and bet this. Yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: they know you, so they're not shocked by you. But

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Speaker 1: don't play it that way. Okay. So to recap our sides,

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Speaker 1: Saints minus three and a half. We are taking the

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Speaker 1: Bills minus six and a half and the Cardinals plus

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Speaker 1: six and a half. But if they don't play, then

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Speaker 1: it's the Ravens minus seven and a half for our sides. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so two plays for totals that I want to talk about.

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Speaker 1: The first is the Patriots Patriots at home against the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: The total is forty two. I do like the Patriots

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Speaker 1: to win this game, but I don't know about the

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Speaker 1: number seven. Six and a half is scary to me.

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Speaker 1: There's been late money that's pushed this here to seven.

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Speaker 1: It was six and a half. Here's the thing. The

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Speaker 1: Patriots I believe win the game. It's why we're teasing

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Speaker 1: it down right, But that three to seven margin is

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Speaker 1: scary to me. I could easily see it fall within

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Speaker 1: that because of one reason is what we're playing here,

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Speaker 1: the under forty two points being scored. Here's my thought.

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Speaker 1: The Patriots are going to play a run first style

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Speaker 1: with Cam Newton. Their receiving corps is not good, right,

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Speaker 1: so they're gonna play defense with some really young guys

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Speaker 1: who were unproven. But they're gonna try to slow down

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins. I don't know how good Fitzpatrick is going

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Speaker 1: to be again. I mean, DeVante Parker has been banged up,

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Speaker 1: so let's see what he looks like. He looks like

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Speaker 1: he's probably gonna play, but we'll see what he looks like.

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Speaker 1: Let's see what the offense looks like in general for

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Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins. But the Patriots are going to run

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Speaker 1: the ball in grind clock. With that said, for that reason,

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Speaker 1: I don't think either team scores all that much. I

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Speaker 1: think the Patriots all year. I think the underplay on

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Speaker 1: the Patriots is gonna be a smart bet. I think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna seventeen to fourteen type football games like that's

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Speaker 1: what they're gonna play. So that's what worries me about

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Speaker 1: the laying of the six and a half seven points

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Speaker 1: with the Patriots. But forty two it's a low number.

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Speaker 1: I know it's a low number, but I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 1: the under Patriots forty two here and then our last play.

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Speaker 1: From a total perspective, forty five is the total for

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville in India and for Jacksonville and the Colts in Indianapolis. Again,

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Speaker 1: a run first team and Philip Rivers coming in. The

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Speaker 1: Jaguars are just horrific. I know, it's Gardner meanshew and

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Speaker 1: I get it. But the defense for the Colts is

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Speaker 1: better than advertised. They're gonna play better this year. They're

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Speaker 1: gonna run the ball. We're going under here, Philip Rivers,

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Speaker 1: new team, new offense, who knows how many points are

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Speaker 1: gonna score? But they may only need like ten points

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Speaker 1: to beat Jacksonville because their weapons are horrible. And no

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Speaker 1: Leonard Fournette, who is I mean, how many points are

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville gonna score against anybody in the NFL? My goodness,

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Speaker 1: minshiw is a fun quarterback, but not a good offense

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Speaker 1: there for the for the Jacksonville Jaguars at all. So

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Speaker 1: we're going under forty five Colts Jags for our second total.

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Speaker 1: So a couple quick points here, Well, let me let

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Speaker 1: me recap first Saints about three and a half Bill's

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Speaker 1: miss six and a half Cards plus six and a

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Speaker 1: half Patriots teaser with the Cardinals game teasing the Patriots

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Speaker 1: down to half a point, and then we're going over

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Speaker 1: thirteen or plus thirteen for the Cardinals on a teaser,

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Speaker 1: and then under forty two for the Patriots, in under

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Speaker 1: forty five for Indianapolis and Jacksonville for our place here

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Speaker 1: for our first Sunday. I know you guys had talked

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Speaker 1: a little bit about Oh, I can't wait to see

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Speaker 1: your exotic plays. Okay, so here's the thing that I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about really quickly. Do you guys know what

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Speaker 1: a Wong teaser is? Wong Wong teaser? Okay. This is

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Speaker 1: a teaser that has to be played as close to

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Speaker 1: kickoff as possible. So I cannot give this to you here. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is just a strategy, but it's a play two

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Speaker 1: teams six point teaser in which games are with a

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Speaker 1: total of forty nine or less. Total of forty nine

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Speaker 1: or less. You're gonna tease the home favorite of seven

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Speaker 1: and a half, eight, eight and a half, nine down.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna tease home underdogs of one one and a

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Speaker 1: half two two and a half up. Road dogs one

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Speaker 1: one and a half two two and a half get

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Speaker 1: teased up. The reason why it matters is the total

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Speaker 1: at kickoff or as close to kickoff as possible, forty

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Speaker 1: nine are less. Okay, so you're limiting, you're changing the

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Speaker 1: total because what you think what Vegas is telling you

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Speaker 1: as to how many points are going to be scored.

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Speaker 1: Long teasers are something I do all the time, but

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Speaker 1: I can't give them to you here on the podcast. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it can't give them to you because it's it has

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Speaker 1: to be as close to kickoff as possible. But six

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Speaker 1: point teasers in the NFL, I love them. I love them.

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Speaker 1: I play them all the time. So take a look

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Speaker 1: at that two teams six point teasers in games with

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Speaker 1: a total of forty nine or less. Get through the

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Speaker 1: key numbers again, key numbers, three, six, seven, ten. Get

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Speaker 1: through those numbers, and you're gonna be able to, like,

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Speaker 1: for instance, a six point teaser for a line of

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Speaker 1: eight and a half or a line of eight, drops

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Speaker 1: it below three, right, that's what we want. We wanna

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Speaker 1: drop it below three. That's a huge teasing opportunity home underdogs, right,

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Speaker 1: one one and a half six point teaser takes you

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Speaker 1: up and above seven, which is a really important deal.

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Speaker 1: So think about that. Play it your own way. But

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Speaker 1: I cannot give you one teasers here because the numbers

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Speaker 1: move as we get towards kickoff. That's the other thing

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Speaker 1: about the NFL that we have to keep in mind.

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Speaker 1: These lines are so sharp and they move all the time.

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Speaker 1: So listen to the podcast first thing in the morning.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully the lines are gonna hold. Hopefully they don't move

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Speaker 1: too much on us. But you know, from six and

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Speaker 1: a half to seven is significant. From you know, nine

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Speaker 1: and a half to ten is significant. From three and

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Speaker 1: a half to three or three to three and a

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Speaker 1: half is significant. So just keep that in mind as

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Speaker 1: we go through the NFL season together. When I'm making

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Speaker 1: these bets and plays, the line movement does matter. So

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Speaker 1: it is important to listen when I say play it

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Speaker 1: at this that's important. Don't care too much about today

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Speaker 1: because I don't think these lines are gonna move too much.

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Speaker 1: But again to recap Saints minus three and a half,

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Speaker 1: Bill's miya six and a half, Cardinals plus six and

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Speaker 1: a half under, Patriots forty two under Indiana and Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: forty five. And we are taking the Patriots teaser with

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals two team teaser for our plays for our

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Speaker 1: first Sunday NFL Daily Juice. My name is Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt dm me.

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Speaker 1: Let's sweat some games together. Guys. We made it to

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Speaker 1: football season, We made it to the NFL. We thought

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Speaker 1: we were gonna get it. We got it, it's here,

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Speaker 1: Let's enjoy it. That's gonna do it. For today's Daily Juice.

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Speaker 1: We are back tomorrow for a Monday with Monday night

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Speaker 1: football plays on tap for you. Talk about it tomorrow

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Speaker 1: here on the Daily Juice, brought to you by Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros dot Com, sponsored by BETTEMGM