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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network. Guy,

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Speaker 1: I'm Chad Milman. Later on in the show, We've got

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Speaker 1: a massive show. College football is starting this weekend. AP

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Speaker 1: Top twenty five came out. It is a lightning rod.

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Speaker 1: As always. Later on in the show, Ralph Russo, who

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Speaker 1: is the college football writer for the AP, hosts the

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Speaker 1: AP Top twenty five College Football podcast um at Ralph

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Speaker 1: de Russo a p on Twitter Listen. He knows everything

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Speaker 1: about the Top twenty five, so it's the perfect week

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Speaker 1: to have h mom talk about the lightning rod that

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Speaker 1: is the Top twenty five. Clemps in the top to

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Speaker 1: how you use the top twenty five when you're thinking

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Speaker 1: about betting, Areas of softness in the top twenty five

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Speaker 1: that could be a value to betters, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: He's coming on later in the show, but first, because

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Speaker 1: it's NFL season, we're gonna get the book maker to

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Speaker 1: the world from New Orleans, representing all the BOYD gaming

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Speaker 1: books around the country. Mr Bob Scucci, that's the highlight

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Speaker 1: of your day, scooch, it is. It doesn't get much

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Speaker 1: better than that. Oh my god, it's so good. We

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Speaker 1: already pivotal time in the NFL preseason. Do you know why?

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Speaker 1: Why is that Week three? Week three the NFL preseason?

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Speaker 1: Do you agree with me? Do you know what I'm

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Speaker 1: talking about? Am I? Am? I? You know, yelling into

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Speaker 1: the wind? Am I tilting it windmills? Do you well

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Speaker 1: an opinion? You have the same perspectives as me. But

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Speaker 1: but week three is the week that you're going to

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Speaker 1: see probably the most time from a law of the

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Speaker 1: UH first team players, the people, the skilled players, the

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Speaker 1: people that the players that people recognize. Week four they

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Speaker 1: rest them. Week one and two you don't see them.

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Speaker 1: So I do think this will be kind of the

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Speaker 1: most exposure that you'll get to some of the key players.

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Speaker 1: All Right, So I agree. I appreciate you answering that,

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Speaker 1: because at first it sounded like you either weren't listening

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Speaker 1: or I didn't understand what I was saying, didn't agree

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Speaker 1: with me. It wasn't quite sure. Sometimes I didn't know,

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Speaker 1: you know, I didn't know if you were going in

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Speaker 1: that direction. So you know, when I am honest to god,

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Speaker 1: it's good. Yeah, it's the NFL preseason. It's week three.

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Speaker 1: What other possible direction could I be going. I don't know,

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Speaker 1: you're an unpredictable guy. I am, I'm an enigma. Yeah, anyways,

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Speaker 1: how do you manage week three as a bookmaker? We've

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Speaker 1: got basically every game going on on Thursday, Like almost

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Speaker 1: every team is an Action on Thursday. It's gonna and

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Speaker 1: I can't tell you. And I'd like to get your

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Speaker 1: perspective on this for us at the Action Network. Download

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Speaker 1: the free Action Network app, rate review, Subscribe to this

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Speaker 1: podcast at Apple Podcasts, um check out our fantasy tools.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we've been seeing a ridiculous amount of

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Speaker 1: traffic and subs against NFL preseason betting guides, individual game guides,

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Speaker 1: all this kind of stuff. Like I had been floored

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Speaker 1: by the level of interest in preseason betting. Are you

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Speaker 1: seeing that reflected in the community at large in Las

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Speaker 1: Vegas and around the country where BOYD Gaming has operators? Oh? Absolutely, um,

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Speaker 1: way more betting than in previous years. And I don't

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Speaker 1: know if it's because there's you know, it's opened up

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Speaker 1: in other jurisdictions and there's a lot of new operators

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Speaker 1: and more markets to bet on, but uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: being able to book a first half and first half

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Speaker 1: total on preseason games on every game. I know it

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Speaker 1: sounds kind of academic, but you know, it wasn't too

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Speaker 1: many years ago that not every operator offered uh you know,

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Speaker 1: in game wagering and first half and second half wagering

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Speaker 1: on preseason games. Uh So, so yeah, it's it's it's

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Speaker 1: more popular now than it ever was. Doesn't make it

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Speaker 1: harder from a bookmaker standpoint, absolutely, because it's just more

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Speaker 1: more you need to keep track of, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: and I think key with preseason obviously is who's playing

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Speaker 1: in for how long? And it changes, it changes right

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Speaker 1: up until game time, and you know, and it's how

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Speaker 1: much you trust, um, your sources, and how much you

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Speaker 1: trust what's coming out of the kind of the coaching

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Speaker 1: staffs narrative in terms of, you know, we want to

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Speaker 1: get this guy a full quarter of play, and then

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Speaker 1: it turns out you're only seeing you know, one series

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Speaker 1: of downs, which doesn't come close to that quarter of play.

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Speaker 1: And so our odds are based on what we know,

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Speaker 1: and of course we adjust them with kind the money

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Speaker 1: coming in, which might be you know, probably a more

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Speaker 1: accurate uh depiction of what's actually going to happen on

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Speaker 1: the field. You said, the magic word do you know

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Speaker 1: what it is. Nope, you have no idea what I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna ask you to elaborate on. No, can't predict you.

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Speaker 1: That's true, as we've as we've made clear, I'm an enigma.

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Speaker 1: You said, sources explain that to me, Well, I mean,

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Speaker 1: we have a variety of sources that that we we

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Speaker 1: use in the industry, and it could be something as

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Speaker 1: simple as just you know, following uh people's Twitter feeds. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and it could be uh more or more experienced handicappers

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Speaker 1: who who have kind of a network of people that

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Speaker 1: uh kind of delve into everything that's said from from

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Speaker 1: all the coaching steps. So you're not meaning like you're

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Speaker 1: on the phone with coaches and or people close to

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Speaker 1: the organization and you're able to say, well, I got

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Speaker 1: I got word that Jimmy Garoppolo is gonna be playing

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Speaker 1: a series and not a full quarter in the third

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Speaker 1: preseason game of the year, So I'm gonna power rate

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Speaker 1: the differently. No, I you know, I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: say that there's any inside knowledge that you know, the

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Speaker 1: bookmakers have that the betting public doesn't have. I just

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Speaker 1: think that the bookmakers probably have a more extensive network

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Speaker 1: of of public sources and nowhere to kind of extract

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Speaker 1: those that information that maybe the public just doesn't quite

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Speaker 1: have the resources at hand. But it's all public. None

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Speaker 1: of it is just kind of information that we have

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Speaker 1: that the public doesn't. All right. So the first game

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Speaker 1: of the year, Uh, I forgot who who even played?

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Speaker 1: Right was the Falcons and the Broncos, And there was

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Speaker 1: a ton of conversation around betting, and I think could

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Speaker 1: sort of, you know it presage what we were going

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Speaker 1: to see during the preseason here in the amount of activity.

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Speaker 1: And I was in the Broncos. I won that game

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Speaker 1: that covered by four. I think the line was two

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Speaker 1: and a half, miracle cover, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Uh, there

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Speaker 1: was some prominent people who are like, why would you

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Speaker 1: bet on the preseason? That's crazy? And they got shouted

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Speaker 1: down because of sort of people saying betting is a

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Speaker 1: regular thing. Get over it. You sound like, you know,

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Speaker 1: get off my lawn, old man, um. But do you

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Speaker 1: think betting on the preseason is crazy? No? No, I

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Speaker 1: will say that again on the same concept that is

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Speaker 1: becoming more mainstream. I think preseason in a lot of

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Speaker 1: prior years was mainly limited to the sharpest of betters,

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Speaker 1: they would focus on a lot of angles that maybe

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Speaker 1: we didn't have as odds makers and the general public.

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Speaker 1: You know, if it was the Hall of Fame game,

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Speaker 1: or if it was going to be a game televising

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Speaker 1: their local region and they wanted to see their local team,

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Speaker 1: they would bet on it. But it wasn't to the

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Speaker 1: extent that it is now where where people are just

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Speaker 1: really even if there's players that they don't know any

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Speaker 1: of the rosters, uh, they still have an interest on

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Speaker 1: on betting on a lot of these teams. And they're

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Speaker 1: starting to read a little bit more about betting angles

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Speaker 1: about certain coaches who have a uh kind of a

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Speaker 1: history of of winning in preseason versus other coaches that

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Speaker 1: uh kind of are just looking at players, uh don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily have the final score in mind. They're looking at,

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Speaker 1: you know, what we need to work on and who

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Speaker 1: I want to take a look at here in certain situations.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's angles that people are starting to

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Speaker 1: kind of gravitate to that they didn't really know of before,

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Speaker 1: and that makes it more fun and interesting, uh to

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Speaker 1: bet on something, especially when you feel like you had

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Speaker 1: a little bit of knowledge or an angle Yeah. But

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Speaker 1: the flip side is it is excruciating right in a

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Speaker 1: different way. Because let's say you had the total on

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Speaker 1: the Broncos Niners last night on the Monday night game

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Speaker 1: it ended Week two. The game in the first quarter

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Speaker 1: was three nothing, The game through the first half was

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Speaker 1: nine points, the total was forty, It ended at thirty nine. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a roller coaster ride. And just because you feel

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Speaker 1: like you have an angle on something, doesn't you know,

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Speaker 1: necessarily mean it's gonna it's gonna pan out that way. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think uh kind of an indication of that.

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Speaker 1: The other night was the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas

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Speaker 1: City Chiefs, and um, I think, uh, I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of people got a little a little burned on

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Speaker 1: some messaging there that they were going to see kind

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Speaker 1: of a first team uh uh most of the most

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Speaker 1: of the first half that you know, they really really

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Speaker 1: didn't get. Um, Kansas City was actually Kansas City was

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Speaker 1: supposed to play most of their first team at least

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Speaker 1: that was the uh, the word out there that they

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Speaker 1: were going to play most of the first half. And

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Speaker 1: I think you saw the point spread minus four and

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Speaker 1: a half in the first half when the Uh, the

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Speaker 1: line for the game was minus three, So, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's that's what you're going to see in a lot

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Speaker 1: of these numbers in preseason. If you know that Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers is going to be playing most of the first half,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see a first half line that that is

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Speaker 1: going to be higher than the game line. And but

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Speaker 1: again it doesn't always doesn't always pan out that way,

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Speaker 1: but that might be your advice for people who are

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Speaker 1: looking for advantages in Week three, which were coming up

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Speaker 1: on this week and a lot of games on Thursday. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you gotta really glean what the coaches are saying so

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Speaker 1: you can get a sense of it was actually playing,

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Speaker 1: because that's where you're going to get the truest opportunity

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Speaker 1: after those first teams are out, Like you aren's game

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Speaker 1: you are. It's it's almost like you're playing roulette exactly. No,

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Speaker 1: it's it's a coin flip. You don't know what what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen. You don't know who these players are

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Speaker 1: and and and how they're gonna how they're going to react,

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Speaker 1: and it's it is, it's a coin flip. And that's

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Speaker 1: why I think focusing on on first half now is

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Speaker 1: kind of an angle that a lot of professional betters

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Speaker 1: are kind of going towards because it's kind of a

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Speaker 1: more accurate reflection um and I'll use you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to make a baseball analogy here for for preseason

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Speaker 1: NFL football. In baseball, the first five innings. Betting on

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Speaker 1: the first five innings has become really popular in the

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Speaker 1: last five years, and professional betters have really found an

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Speaker 1: edge there because it takes the bullped out of the equation.

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Speaker 1: It takes those last three innings out of the equation.

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Speaker 1: You're looking at those starting pitchers who who go five

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Speaker 1: six solid innings. You look at three r ra s,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty consistent, and you've removed a whole unknown out

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Speaker 1: of your kind of betting, uh handicapping, And that's kind

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Speaker 1: of what is going on with NFL preseason. You remove

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Speaker 1: that second half, you remove that intangible, and focus on

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Speaker 1: what you know more of with those starters. Well, speaking

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Speaker 1: of first five, I've got the Angels Rangers first five

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Speaker 1: over six playing right now. Angels scored three in the first. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's the top of the second. I'm feeling really good

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Speaker 1: about it. According the Action Network gap UM, I have

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Speaker 1: a very good chance of winning. I'm showing green dots.

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Speaker 1: It means I got I'm potentially in the money right now,

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Speaker 1: That's what it's telling me. Bob Scucci, you are the

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Speaker 1: bookmaker of the world, and you're gonna have to make

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Speaker 1: way for Ralph Russo, who uh is the premier AP

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Speaker 1: Top writer. I guess he's the only writer coming the

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Speaker 1: AP Top for the AP but still he's an expert

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Speaker 1: and he's going to come on the podcast next. Sounds exciting.

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Speaker 1: I'll step aside, step aside, step aside from your podcast, Gooch. Alright, alright, alright,

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Speaker 1: next up on the Favorites, as promised. This guy has

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Speaker 1: been doing Top twenty five for a P for a

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Speaker 1: very long time. Knows everything there is to know about

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Speaker 1: the Top twenty five for college football. So it's the

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Speaker 1: right week to have month since we got a brand

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Speaker 1: new Top twenty five, which some people would say is disastrous,

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Speaker 1: other people would say is erroneous, other people would say

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Speaker 1: is useless. I would say it's the best way to

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Speaker 1: talk about college football. Ralph Russo of the a P

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Speaker 1: at Ralph d Russo a P on Twitter. He is

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Speaker 1: the host of the AP Top five College Football podcast,

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Speaker 1: Ralph Russo, how are you, buddy, I'm good. What's going on, man,

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Speaker 1: I'm good. I'm excited to talk to you like it.

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Speaker 1: You're like a top twenty five legend um, and so

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Speaker 1: this is the week to do it. That just means

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Speaker 1: I'm old, man, That just means I am getting old. Well,

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Speaker 1: it happens to all of us. It happens to the

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Speaker 1: other every day. I got people like saying to me,

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Speaker 1: this is gonna sound like humble break. Oh my god,

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Speaker 1: I've been listening to your podcast forever. I want to

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Speaker 1: be like, fuck you man. Yeah. Um, but you've been

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Speaker 1: covering the top twenty five for a long time. You

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Speaker 1: are sort of, uh, you know, you're the foremost expert.

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Speaker 1: So now we got Clemson top number one, first time

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Speaker 1: I think since Georgia was the first time number one,

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Speaker 1: and what two thousand eight was that what it was?

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Speaker 1: I believe it was two thousand eight. Georgia was there

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Speaker 1: at the start of the season, not for very long,

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Speaker 1: but uh, but yeah, that's the last time. Because you know,

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Speaker 1: just the number one thing doesn't spread around all that much.

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Speaker 1: There's not a ton of parody in college ball. So

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Speaker 1: Clemson became the twenty third team to be to hold

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Speaker 1: the preseason the preseason number one. That is all right,

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Speaker 1: So as we are talking about the Top twenty five

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Speaker 1: this week, it comes out and there's a lot of debate.

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Speaker 1: It's like the original debate topic. Um, what are your

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Speaker 1: thoughts in the top twenty five as a rancor as

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Speaker 1: a statement as a judgment of value and quality in

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Speaker 1: college football? Yeah? Well, first of all, very very help

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Speaker 1: to put this very clear, I don't vote the AP.

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Speaker 1: We picked the voters, we counted up, we we administer

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Speaker 1: the pole. But employees for the AP don't vote. So

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Speaker 1: I kind of look at it like a lot of

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Speaker 1: fans and reporter other reporters do. I I sometimes look

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Speaker 1: at it and go out. I don't really like that

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Speaker 1: that what that team is there? Um, I would put

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Speaker 1: this team higher, I would put this team more. I

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Speaker 1: guess the difference between me and most fans. I don't

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Speaker 1: get particularly angry about it. I sort of understand that

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Speaker 1: there's there's a lot of different ways you can rank

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Speaker 1: these themes. It's all sort of subjective. We're doing the

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Speaker 1: best we can just to make an educated guests here.

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Speaker 1: So again, I don't know where I might disagree the

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Speaker 1: difference with me as I sort of can see the boat,

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Speaker 1: see see both sides. I sort of I've been around

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Speaker 1: voters and seen the votes long enough that I could

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Speaker 1: sort of even if somebody got like, quote unquote an

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Speaker 1: unusual vote, I can usually sort of see where they're

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Speaker 1: coming from. And I would also always tell people like listen, like, hey,

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Speaker 1: we don't want everybody to vote the same. That would

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Speaker 1: be boring. Um, And if people vote really outside the box,

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Speaker 1: that's kind of fun. I mean, that's kind of as

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Speaker 1: long as you know, as long as you can justify

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Speaker 1: your vote, that's kind of the fun thing. I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people look at the poll these days,

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Speaker 1: and my people always ask me, are you surprise as

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Speaker 1: anything in the in the rankings? And generally speaking, I

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Speaker 1: think because nowadays we've evolved to the place where we

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Speaker 1: have all these way too early polls right that we

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Speaker 1: start ranking these teams, not the AP, but these teams

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Speaker 1: start getting ranked January by some news organizations, and I

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Speaker 1: think because of that, we end up with six or

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Speaker 1: seven months of rankings leading into the preseason ranking. So

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Speaker 1: I think it lends itself to a little bit of

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Speaker 1: group think. And I don't know if that's not a

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Speaker 1: knock on the voters. But I think if you've been

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Speaker 1: seeing these early polls for six or seven months, I

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Speaker 1: think you end up with a consensus on what the

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Speaker 1: teams should about what the team should look like going

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Speaker 1: into the season. So a couple of things. Number one.

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Speaker 1: Every time you say because you sound so New York, well,

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Speaker 1: I grew up in Queens. So how does a guy

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Speaker 1: from Queens And this is a little bit of a sidetrack,

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Speaker 1: how does a guy from Queen's end up being someone

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Speaker 1: who is one of the faces of college football coverage

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Speaker 1: a place New York City that is so disconnected from

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Speaker 1: college football. Yeah, that's a good question I have When

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Speaker 1: I was um and I I said, grew up in

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Speaker 1: Queens and had my father didn't give much care about

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Speaker 1: college football. You know, he married me a Mets fan

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Speaker 1: and a Jets fan. Um, I just was sort of

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Speaker 1: drawn in by Saturday football, you know, you know, seeing

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Speaker 1: these games from sort of weird places, you know, when

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Speaker 1: you grow up in Queens, like Baton Rouge might as

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Speaker 1: well be the move, you know, Lincoln, Nebraska, Like what

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Speaker 1: is that about? You know, Norman, Oklahoma? So like it

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Speaker 1: just the football looked different. The players had the Terra

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Speaker 1: away jerseys, and obviously they're playing lots of different styles.

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Speaker 1: You know, I grew up in I was ten years

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Speaker 1: old in nineteen eighty, right, so the NFL is already

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Speaker 1: becoming sort of homogeneous. Everybody sort of looks the same.

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Speaker 1: But you know, college teams are playing lots of different offenses.

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Speaker 1: So I got hooked in my you know, ten, twelve,

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Speaker 1: thirteen years old. That Braska team in three I think

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Speaker 1: it was a two that lost to Miami, and that

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Speaker 1: amazing Orange Bowl just really gripped me and it just stuck.

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Speaker 1: Like I just I just I. The more I go

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Speaker 1: into the sport, the more I liked it. And then,

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Speaker 1: to wrap up the long story, when I moved one

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Speaker 1: of my as an adult, I moved to Mississippi to

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Speaker 1: work there for the AP And once you get that

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Speaker 1: that taste of SEC football, it just took it to

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Speaker 1: another level. And at that point I realized, this is

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Speaker 1: the sport. If I can pick one sport, I love

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Speaker 1: them all, but if I can pick one to be

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Speaker 1: near and to sort of immerse myself in, it would

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Speaker 1: be college football. So you mentioned three things there, uh One,

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Speaker 1: Jamal Holloway microsier those Oklahoma Nebraska games in the Earth

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Speaker 1: so defined college football, but also by the way to

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Speaker 1: find a little bit of polling, because that was the

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Speaker 1: era when the polls seem to have more influence than

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Speaker 1: they ever had, right because they were still the way

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Speaker 1: in which college football champions were somewhat being defined, No

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Speaker 1: no doubt. I mean they the Coaches Poll and the

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Speaker 1: a Peo Pole were basically the definitive word on college

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Speaker 1: football at the end of the year as far as

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Speaker 1: who we thought of as champions. Now, that obviously has changed.

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Speaker 1: And I'll tell you something as someone again, who you know,

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Speaker 1: the poll is a big part of what I do.

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Speaker 1: It's a it's it's part of my brand. It's part

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Speaker 1: of the reason why I have a good job. So

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Speaker 1: I definitely don't knock the poll. But there's no doubt

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Speaker 1: that the relevancy of the poll has changed and probably

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Speaker 1: lessened to a certain degree as the BCS came around

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Speaker 1: and now the College Football Playoff. But what I'll always

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Speaker 1: tell people is the poll is the one consistent thing

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Speaker 1: throughout the history of college football. Because we have the

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Speaker 1: CVFP now out, and we had the BCS before, and

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Speaker 1: we had the alliance before that, and before that it

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Speaker 1: was a bit of a free for all. And you

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Speaker 1: know what, in five or six years, we're probably gonna

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Speaker 1: have a new playoff system, were a different type of

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Speaker 1: playoff system. The poll is a constant. So the poll

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Speaker 1: is one way to sort of tell the tale of

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Speaker 1: college football, to sort of look back and say, when

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Speaker 1: was the last time this team was this good? Well,

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Speaker 1: they were number you know, so and so was last

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Speaker 1: number one in Night five, right, And it's been that

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Speaker 1: long since they were number one. So I think the

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Speaker 1: polls sort of is a good way to quantify things

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Speaker 1: in college football because it's the only consistent throughout years

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Speaker 1: and years and years of college football. And that's why

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Speaker 1: I still think it's relevant. That's why I still think

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Speaker 1: the preseason poll is relevant and a good thing because

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Speaker 1: it's just it's part of the fabric of college football

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Speaker 1: and it helps sort of build a narrative to each

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Speaker 1: season into its history. So to the two I said,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned three things, and the answer of the things

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Speaker 1: I'll mention are and you don't have to comment on this,

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Speaker 1: I just recollecting you said. Mississippi. Uh, a close friend

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Speaker 1: of mine lives in Oxford. He works at ESPN. I

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Speaker 1: went down to visit him for a weekend in Oxford

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Speaker 1: for a game, and walking through the grove is maybe

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Speaker 1: a top ten sports experience, but the number one and

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Speaker 1: my wife and I were away this weekend and we

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Speaker 1: were sitting at the bar of this hotel we were

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Speaker 1: staying at, and this other couple sat down next to us,

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Speaker 1: and you know, as it were, you start talking and

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Speaker 1: hanging out. And they asked me after they learned sort

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Speaker 1: of what I did for a living, like my favorite

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Speaker 1: sporting events, and I said, the greatest sporting event I've

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Speaker 1: ever been to. You mentioned Baton Rouge L s U

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Speaker 1: Alabama in Death Valley two thousand twelve when h L

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Speaker 1: s U was I think number five, Bama was number one,

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Speaker 1: and I think t J yelled in a J mccaren

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Speaker 1: like that team and t J Yelden had like some

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Speaker 1: twenty five yard run to win the game in the

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Speaker 1: final seconds. Um easily the greatest footballs sparience in my life.

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Speaker 1: The yeah, I mean the Southern football experience in those stadiums.

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Speaker 1: Baton Rouge was one of the first. Because as great

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Speaker 1: as Oxford is in Mississippi State, and I covered those

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Speaker 1: the one that you know, this The one stadium that

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Speaker 1: I the first time I was in it, it totally

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Speaker 1: blew me away, was Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. I

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Speaker 1: covered a game down there in the early two thousands

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Speaker 1: that went to overtime. Missisippi State had a big lead

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Speaker 1: and l s U came rumbling back and I had

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Speaker 1: never worked in that state, never been in that stadium,

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Speaker 1: and the stadium, the press box starts sort of shaking

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Speaker 1: because because it's so loud in there. It's it was

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Speaker 1: an amazing experience. And again, once you go down, if

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Speaker 1: you like college football and you get a taste of that,

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Speaker 1: you know that sec And the other thing that also

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Speaker 1: happened with me. My brother moved to Columbus in the nineties, Columbus, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: so I got a taste of that, of of what

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Speaker 1: it's like to be in Columbus on a Michigan Ohio

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Speaker 1: state weekend. And again when you get those that experience

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Speaker 1: and understand the pageantry of it, it's it's just gets

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Speaker 1: in your blood. You know. Again, like you know, the

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Speaker 1: football may be better on Sundays, but the event is

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Speaker 1: far better on Saturday. Yeah, totally totally agree, completely agree, um,

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Speaker 1: all right, a p How do you think about it

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Speaker 1: as a barometer? This is a betting podcast as a

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Speaker 1: barometer for people who gamble? Is it? Well, let me

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Speaker 1: just let me ask it without any valence. How do

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Speaker 1: you think about it as a barometer for people who gamble? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I would be cautious of using it as a barometer

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Speaker 1: for gamblers. I think that you know, again, this is

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Speaker 1: not a knock on the pole. The pole rewards results, right,

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Speaker 1: bare minimum results winns in losses, not how you won

428
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 1: that game, not, you know, be a little I shouldn't

429
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: say that. There's a little bit of hey, you maybe

430
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: had a close loss, will ding you here? Hey, or

431
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 1: excuse me, a close loss, so we'll give you a

432
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 1: little credit for that. You had a weird uh, you

433
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: had a close win against the bad teams, so we'll

434
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 1: ding you for that a little bit. But it's purely

435
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: sort of you know, wins and loss results driven. Whereas

436
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 1: you know, as someone who's got a little bit of

437
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 1: an analytical bent to myself, and I'll check in on

438
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 1: the f p I s and SMP plus is and

439
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: all those things. I love those the computer rankings. I'm

440
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: sort of a moneyball guy. When it comes to baseball,

441
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: you I understand that like that that pure win and

442
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: loss is not necessarily predictive for the next win and loss.

443
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: It's more of like how how you played and things

444
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: along those lines. And there's all kinds of things that

445
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: go into the results of a game that may be

446
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 1: more predictive than than the poll, which is solely pretty

447
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 1: much just concentrating on what are you won or lost?

448
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 1: All right, that is valuable. That's valuable perspective. Because my

449
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: next question is Utah Washington, Oregon. At the Action Network,

450
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson loves Utah, feels like they are decidedly underrated.

451
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 1: Ore again is getting a ton of love, uh from

452
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: a lot of pundits and it's number eleven. Uh. You

453
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,439
Speaker 1: recognize them as a trendy pick in your podcast, but

454
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 1: you also warned we're under selling Washington. This is a

455
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 1: great question from Matt Mitchell, super producer Matt Mitchell of

456
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: the podcast. Does Ralph Russo think the number thirteen Huskies

457
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 1: repeat as chaps? I, you know what, I have to

458
00:26:54,400 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: write my predictions column today, tonight tomorrow, so and I'm

459
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 1: definitely leaning towards picking Washington. I you know, I have

460
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 1: a something I sort of a trope that I've sort

461
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: of fall back on in college football, and that is

462
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: you're sort of all you will be what you are, right,

463
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: you will always be what you are. And I think

464
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 1: once you've established a program and you have some stability

465
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: in that program, there is almost nothing better than that.

466
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons why Utah has been such

467
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,919
Speaker 1: a good a good program over the years because they

468
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 1: really sort of know what they are. And my feeling is,

469
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 1: you know, Utah is a little different because we haven't

470
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 1: seen Utah be this good while at least come into

471
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 1: the season with this much expectation, so they're kind of different.

472
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 1: In Oregon obviously is trendy and has a superstar quarterback,

473
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 1: so it's kind of fun to jump on the Oregon

474
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 1: band wagon. And I think Washington is just Washington right now.

475
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: They've got Chris Peterson, they've got a program that's been

476
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 1: well established over the last few years. They've had a

477
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 1: nice pipeline of hey, we lose this four star, but

478
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 1: we replaced him with this four star. We just lost

479
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,199
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys in the NFL, but we have

480
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 1: good replacements lined up. Um and I think it's sort

481
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: of the power of the program and the power of

482
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 1: stability that would lead me to having Washington maybe being

483
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 1: a little undervalued, so to speak, especially maybe compared to

484
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 1: Oregon and and have me probably pointing towards them as

485
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 1: the PAC twelve champion. I will say this, it would

486
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 1: be nice if I have seen, if I had seen

487
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 1: Jacob Eason play in the last two years. The one

488
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: thing that gives me some pauses what has his development.

489
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 1: There's the guy who has been with a five star

490
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: you know, prospect coming out of high school, transferred from Georgia.

491
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 1: It has literally been almost two years since he's played

492
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: in a college football game. You know, he is he

493
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: turns into be you know, a five star player, not

494
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 1: just the five of our prospect, but a five star

495
00:28:55,640 --> 00:29:00,479
Speaker 1: player that could conceivably vault Washington up. It he is

496
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: less than that, or you know, depending on how much

497
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 1: less than that, I think it could sort of drag

498
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: Washington down. So the the uncertainty of what Jacob Eatan

499
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: is is the one thing that sort of worries me

500
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 1: about Washington. All right, So you kind of walked away

501
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: from Utah there for a second. Well, uh, you know again,

502
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: you are what you are, right if you kind of

503
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: go with that premise that you what you are, or

504
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: liberal should say you are what you always have been. So,

505
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 1: when was the last time Utah was a top ten team? Well,

506
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: it's being you gotta go back to when they were

507
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 1: playing in the Mount West and a couple of good

508
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 1: years with Urban when they were you know, Kyle Winningham

509
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: first took over there. In their history in the Pack

510
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 1: twelve suggests that they will be a tough and physical team,

511
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 1: but they are not really recruiting on a level that

512
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 1: some of these other teams are. They're not bringing in

513
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: lots of four and five star players, um And ultimately,

514
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: you know, if you're not doing that, it's a lot

515
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: harder to be really really good. If you can be

516
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: good if you're a developmental program, but to sort of

517
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: push into that next echelon where you go from good

518
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 1: to a playoff contender to a team that can maybe

519
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: you know, possibly sort of make an argument for a

520
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: national championship. Utah doesn't really recruit at that level. So

521
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: that's the one thing that sort of holds me back

522
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: on Utah. Like I think they're the best team in

523
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 1: the South, I would be surprised if they didn't play

524
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: in the in the in the conference championship game, and

525
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: if you get to the conference championship game, well you're

526
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: in pretty good shape to win the conference title. But

527
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 1: I see these sort of ambitious projections of Utah and

528
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,479
Speaker 1: possibly making the playoff and going undefeated, and that seems

529
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 1: a bit much for a team that recruits at that level.

530
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure we'll have sort of the depth

531
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: of players and game breakers that the really elite teams have.

532
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 1: I disagree Utah is the best guy attend to want

533
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: to win the Patch Wealth. But here's another area where

534
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: you found disagree meant with someone on Twitter. Greg McElroy

535
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: claimed that the SEC East could now be better than

536
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: the SEC West, which is hog wash all respect But

537
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: you agree with me. Tell me why you discuss this argument. Yeah, no,

538
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 1: I totally agree with you. Listen. I know the record

539
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 1: last year was the East beat the West. The overall

540
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: interconference interdivision record last year, the East came out on top.

541
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 1: Kentucky had, you know, a generational team last year. Kentucky

542
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: is not going to be that team this year. I

543
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: think Mark Stubis has done a nice job. I don't

544
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 1: expect them a huge fall back, but they're not going

545
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: to have the best defensive player in the country and

546
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, So Kentucky probably regresses a little bit. Missouri

547
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 1: could certainly regress. The Missouri schedule sets up really nice

548
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: for them to have a pretty good year. They just

549
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of challenges in their crossovers. I

550
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 1: believe it's Arkansas and Old miss are their crossover. So

551
00:31:55,680 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 1: you're getting literally the two worst teams in the West. Um,

552
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 1: but you're losing an NFL quarterback. And Kelly Bryant's a

553
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: nice player, but he's not going to be a number

554
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 1: one draft pick or a number, you know, a second

555
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: round draft pick like Drew lock was. UM. So I

556
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: assume a little made, possibly a little regression out of

557
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 1: Missouri regression in a sense that I don't think they

558
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 1: will be as good, though the record could conceivably be

559
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: better because the schedule is a little more accommodating. UM.

560
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,479
Speaker 1: I don't think Tennessee is quite ready to really spread

561
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 1: its wings and fly under Jeremy Pruett, though I could

562
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: see them being better this year. I think Florida might

563
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: be a little bit of a step back here. Frankly,

564
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: they don't look like the number eight team in the

565
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: country to me. But as I as I said on

566
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 1: other you know, conversations about the pole, I feel like

567
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: once you get past number five, it should go from

568
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,959
Speaker 1: five to twelve. Like all those teams between six and

569
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 1: eleven seemed like, well, is that seemed really that good?

570
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: Like should Michigan really be seven? Should Florida really be eight?

571
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 1: But somebody has to be there because you can't skip

572
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: from six, that you can't skip from five. Well, um,

573
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 1: So it's a long winded way of saying. I feel

574
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: like there's gonna be a little regression in the East,

575
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: and I don't see a whole lot of regression in

576
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: the West. I feel like the West of anything. Hellas

577
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 1: you know, Tech, the and M is probably getting better

578
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: in the West, um and everybody, all the other powers

579
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: seemed to be pretty stable. Ralph de Russo, you nailed this.

580
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 1: AP College Football Writer, Extrodinaire, Arbiter of all Things AP

581
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: Top twenty five The Lightning or Out of College Football,

582
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 1: The AP Top twenty College Football Podcast at Ralph d

583
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 1: Russo a p on Twitter. Good follow, good listen, good work,

584
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: Thanks man, appreciate time. Talk to you. All right. I

585
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: want to thank Scooch for coming on his podcast. I

586
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 1: want to thank Ralph Russo from the AP Top twenty

587
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: five football podcast. That was a great conversation. He is

588
00:33:55,200 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: super smart. This has been the favorites. Download it, rate it, subscribe,

589
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 1: review it, Listen to it on Apple, podcast radio dot com, Slash,

590
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,240
Speaker 1: the Action Network, or wherever you get your podcasts. Until

591
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 1: next time, I love you, M