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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Vetting Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Or radio show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association

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Speaker 2: and the number.

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Speaker 1: One show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 3: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: We're growing in job spectacular. I'm sitting it to cash

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Speaker 2: to time. We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to win. God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 3: this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello.

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Speaker 4: Everyone, Welcome back to another NFL episode of the Action

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Speaker 4: Network podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of

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Speaker 4: Fantasy Labs. With me are Shawn Corner and Chris Ravon.

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Speaker 4: Sean is the Action Network director of Predictive Analytics, and

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Speaker 4: Chris is a senior editor and analyst at the Action Network.

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Speaker 4: They are too the best fantasy football rankers in the business,

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Speaker 4: and joining us is one of the titans of the industry.

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Speaker 4: Evan Silva, a co founder of Established the Run. Evan,

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Speaker 4: thanks for joining us. How you doing Hey, I'm doing

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Speaker 4: really well. You guys are looking good. A lot of

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Speaker 4: facial hair, but looking pretty strong. Looking strong.

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Speaker 3: This is a facial hair podcast.

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Speaker 4: It wasn't always the case, but Raymond is really throughout

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Speaker 4: the quarantine situation because of the coronavirus, has really stepped

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Speaker 4: up his beard game. So yeah, looking good on Raymon

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Speaker 4: over there. It's good to have you with us on

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Speaker 4: the show. In our two previous episodes, we previewed our

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty player projections, which we will update continuously and

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Speaker 4: which will power the customizable Fantasy football cheat sheet available

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Speaker 4: soon on the Action Network. In this episode, we're doing

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Speaker 4: two things. We're discussing with Evan his basic approach to

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Speaker 4: the quarterback position in terms of projections and fantasy strategy,

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Speaker 4: and we're doing a full breakdown of the top twelve

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Speaker 4: fantasy quarterbacks by average draft position. If you like what

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Speaker 4: you hear, give us that five star rating, leave a review.

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Speaker 4: We would appreciate it. Let's get into it. Evan, what

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Speaker 4: is your approach to the quarterback position in fantasy? I'm

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Speaker 4: assuming that you tend to lean more towards the late

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Speaker 4: round strategy, but I have seen you in some recent

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Speaker 4: drafts take some of these earlier quarterbacks. How are you

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Speaker 4: approaching quarterback in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a great question, and I think it's

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Speaker 1: one that I think needs to be answered on almost

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Speaker 1: a case by case, league by league basis, because if

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Speaker 1: you're playing in your home league or your office league,

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Speaker 1: your best approach is almost always just to let everyone

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Speaker 1: else take their quarterback before you take yours, in order

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Speaker 1: to maximize value at probably the deepest position in fantasy.

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Speaker 1: But then if you're playing in a large field, season

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Speaker 1: long tournament, or you're playing best ball, and you're trying

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Speaker 1: to climb the mountain top and you're trying to finish

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Speaker 1: in first, and you're not just trying to make sure

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Speaker 1: that you get into the playoffs where and then you

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Speaker 1: let variants take over, then I think that it's smart

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Speaker 1: to be more aggressive at quarterback and to build quarterback

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Speaker 1: stacks with their pass catchers and teams acts in order

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Speaker 1: to maximize your upside. So yeah, I'm a lot more

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Speaker 1: willing to take quarterbacks from the first six to eight

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Speaker 1: rounds in big tournament style leagues, Like in my league

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Speaker 1: with my college friends, I'm pretty much treating quarterback like

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Speaker 1: defense or kicker, and I'm waiting as long as possible

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Speaker 1: to take one. I'm hoping that my opponents are taking

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Speaker 1: them relatively early, pushing you better picks at scarcer positions

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Speaker 1: to me down the board, all.

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Speaker 4: Right, what are the stats in factors that you were

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Speaker 4: looking at to predict quarterback performance for the upcoming season.

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Speaker 1: I mean, certainly touchdown rate I think has been established

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Speaker 1: as a very useful metric. Touchdowns just divided by pass attempts.

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Speaker 1: It's a very simple metric, easy to understand. What I

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Speaker 1: like to do every off season is go back and

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Speaker 1: just look at quarterbacks career touchdown rates. And it actually

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Speaker 1: if you just ranked like all the thirty two starters

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Speaker 1: in the league in terms of their career touchdown rates,

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Speaker 1: it's actually not a bad ranking. Is just on the

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Speaker 1: basis of how good they are, Like, you know, Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes is way up up top. You know Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: is way up top, even though his touchdown rates have

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Speaker 1: fallen off in recent years. But it tend to be

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Speaker 1: the really good quarterbacks throw a lot of touchdowns per

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Speaker 1: pass attempt. So I think that that's a legit statistic.

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Speaker 1: And whether they performed well above or below their career

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Speaker 1: TD rates in the previous season, you know they're likely

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Speaker 1: to regress back toward their career mean in the following season.

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Speaker 1: And I think the pass and run volume are obviously

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Speaker 1: also critical statistics. If you look at quarterbacks on a

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Speaker 1: game by game basis, pass volume isn't nearly as important

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Speaker 1: as efficiency. But if you're looking at season long, cumulative

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Speaker 1: fantasy production, pass volume becomes a lot more important in

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Speaker 1: that larger sample size. And you know, of course, as

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Speaker 1: our friend Rich Riebar has repeatedly pointed out, quarterback rushing

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Speaker 1: volume can be a sort of skeleton key for fantasy production.

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Speaker 1: And there are cheap, lower call quarterbacks like Gardner Minshew

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Speaker 1: and Daniel Jones and even like Ryan Tannehill who will

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Speaker 1: get somewhat overlooked box score boost because they are athletic

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Speaker 1: and they run and they add a couple of points

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Speaker 1: per week with their legs. And you guys all know

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Speaker 1: this best because you guys compete in those Fantasy pros

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Speaker 1: rankings and you see the points that the players score

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Speaker 1: every week on a position by position basis. Two points

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Speaker 1: at the quarterback position is a huge advantage because everyone's

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Speaker 1: so tightly bunched together, and that two point rushing boost

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Speaker 1: can move you from the quarterback seventeen on the week

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Speaker 1: to like the quarterback nine. It's a huge difference maker.

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Speaker 4: All right, we're talking about the top twelve quarterbacks in

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Speaker 4: this episode. But Evan, right there, you mentioned some guys

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Speaker 4: who are going outside of the top twelve Gardner Minshew,

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Speaker 4: Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill. Out of the guys outside of

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Speaker 4: the top twelve, who right now is your favorite late

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Speaker 4: round quarterback or a couple of guys you're targeting.

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Speaker 3: It's Jimmy Garoppolo.

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Speaker 1: And I know that Raybond in particular was especially high

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Speaker 1: on Jimmy G last year, and I really liked the

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Speaker 1: Raybond's process behind that take. But I think that Raybond

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Speaker 1: is actually going to end up being a year early

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Speaker 1: on Garoppolo because I think that this is really the

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Speaker 1: year to hammer it down on Jimmy G and ideally

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Speaker 1: in stacks with George Kittle. So this is Jimmy G's

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Speaker 1: second full season in Kyle Shanahan's offense. You know he's

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Speaker 1: that full season removed now from that acl tair. He

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Speaker 1: was remarkably efficient last year. He was third in the

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Speaker 1: NFL in yards for past attempt top eight in passer rating,

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Speaker 1: but the forty nine ers were twenty ninth in pass attempts,

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Speaker 1: and I think they're going to throw a good amount more.

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Speaker 1: This year, they traded to Forrest Buckner. They lost their

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Speaker 1: stud defensive backs coach Joe Woods, who coached up like

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Speaker 1: every member of their secondary last year, to a career year.

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Speaker 1: Richard Sherman is a year older. Their other cornerback position

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Speaker 1: is a major trouble spot. It was all last year.

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Speaker 1: They didn't do anything to fix it this offseason. And

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Speaker 1: then I really liked the early season scalt for Jimmy

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Speaker 1: g and George Kittle. They get Arizona at home in

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Speaker 1: Week one, people might say, oh, the Cardinals got Isaiah Simmons. Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, with no practice time. I can't wait to

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Speaker 1: see George Kittle matching up against Isaiah Simmons in one

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Speaker 1: on one matchups, Like that's you know, George Kittle's gonna

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Speaker 1: win that. Maybe down the line, Isaiah Simmons, we'll catch him.

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Speaker 1: But George Kittle, I'm gonna bet on him every single

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Speaker 1: time in that matchup. Then in weeks two and three

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Speaker 1: they go on the road, but they're playing at the

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Speaker 1: same stadium. They're facing the Jets and the Giants. I

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Speaker 1: think that both of those defense could be sort of

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Speaker 1: pass funnel situations, and I don't think that either of

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Speaker 1: those matchups are particularly worth worrisome. And then the foury

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Speaker 1: Nars come back home for three straight home games against

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams, and I'm not afraid of

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Speaker 1: any of those matchups. I really like the matchups against

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Speaker 1: the Eagles and the Dolphins, So like in DFS, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna want to have a lot of Jimmy g George

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Speaker 1: Kittle stacks early in the season, especially after Deebo Samuel

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Speaker 1: went down.

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Speaker 3: And I like this forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 1: Offense to trend toward the middle of the pack in

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Speaker 1: past attempts after being bottom three last year.

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Speaker 4: On The Serious XM Show, I think we've talked a

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Speaker 4: couple of times about Jimmy Garoppolo as one of those

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Speaker 4: deeper long shot MVP candidates, and I think there's some

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Speaker 4: value there. Even you can look at DraftKings sportsbook right

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Speaker 4: now forty to one for Jimmy Garoppolo to win MVP,

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Speaker 4: and I think there's some value there. Let's get into

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Speaker 4: talking about these quarterbacks, and you know, depending on the

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Speaker 4: league settings and the league you're in, you know, it's

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Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes as the number one quarterback

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Speaker 4: off the board. But really there's this clear tier of

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Speaker 4: those top two guys. And let's start with Lamar Jackson,

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Speaker 4: the MVP last year. He has the same offensive coordinator

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Speaker 4: and Greg Roman. He has wide receivers Marquis Brown and

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Speaker 4: Miles Boyken entering their second year. Titan Mark Andrews is

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Speaker 4: entering his third year, and then the team added running

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Speaker 4: back Ak Dobbins and wide receiver Devin de Verne in

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Speaker 4: the draft. So everything seems still to be trending in

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Speaker 4: the right direction for Lamar Jackson. Evan, where are you

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Speaker 4: on him?

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Speaker 3: I have him right next to Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if I could rank Patrick Mahomes and Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson at the exact same spot, I would, But you know,

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Speaker 1: we can't do that unfortunately, because we have to make

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Speaker 1: these lists and everybody, you know, needs a list. So

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Speaker 1: I have Patrick Mahomes one spot ahead. And you know,

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Speaker 1: whether it be in the there's the overall quarterback rankings

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Speaker 1: or you know, the overall overall rankings of all the

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Speaker 1: players that are literally back to back. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I have no problem with anybody saying, yo, Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 1: deserves to be the quarterback one again, you know, I

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Speaker 1: mean there's a great case, so we made for that.

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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have a great season. I think

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Speaker 1: he's going to go from probably throwing thirty six touchdown

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Speaker 1: passes to like twenty five. And I think that Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 1: you know, is going to throw more than forty. And

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Speaker 1: I liked that Patrick Mahomes open it up with a

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Speaker 1: little bit with his legs down the stretch. Last year

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Speaker 1: he got healthy, started running some more. I think that

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Speaker 1: his is his rushing floor is maybe better than giving

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Speaker 1: credit for. I love both guys, and it's it's really

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Speaker 1: it's you know, it's nitpicking. It's but I you know,

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Speaker 1: I think they're both going to have really big seasons,

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Speaker 1: and I think that Patrick Mahomes is just gonna have

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Speaker 1: a little bit better.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 4: So, Evan, what I'm taking from that is that you

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Speaker 4: are massively disrespecting Lamar Jackson by putting him behind Patrick Mahomes. Sean,

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Speaker 4: where are you on your rankings of Lamar Jackson and

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Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 5: Here, I'm in the same boat as Evan. I mean,

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Speaker 5: even the slightest tweak to either quarterback could flip these rankings.

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Speaker 5: As of today, I have Patrick Mahomes number one, and

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Speaker 5: it's just an interesting dynamic between these two. You know,

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Speaker 5: if Lamar Jackson, the question is, you know, I don't

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Speaker 5: think he's gonna match his thirty six passing touchdown and

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Speaker 5: twelve hundred rushing yards this year. You know, the question

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Speaker 5: is how close can you get to repeating that? So

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Speaker 5: I expect some pretty significant regression for him, whereas Mahomes

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Speaker 5: I only see positive regression from last year. So it's

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Speaker 5: sort of, you know, finding that middle ground with both

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Speaker 5: of them, and it's right in the middle. So right

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Speaker 5: now I have Patrick Mahomes slightly ahead. I think, you know,

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Speaker 5: given that he was without Tyreek Hill for four games

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Speaker 5: last year, he was dealing with the knee and ankle

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Speaker 5: injury for most of last year, and Evan mentioned it.

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Speaker 5: You know, we saw him relatively healthy in the playoffs

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Speaker 5: and he averaged forty five rushing yards per game, So

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Speaker 5: he has that kind of ceiling with his legs as well.

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Speaker 5: He gets a first round talent pass catching running back

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Speaker 5: and Clyde Edwards, Hilaire mikol Hardman could make a year

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Speaker 5: two leaps, so I think Mahomes has a chance of,

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Speaker 5: you know, coming close to his fifty touchdown rookie season.

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Speaker 5: So I just think the ceiling for Mahlmes is higher,

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Speaker 5: which is why I would take him before Lamar. But

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Speaker 5: having said that, it's not taking anything away from Lamar

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Speaker 5: jackson season last year. I think he can come close

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Speaker 5: to do preicating those numbers. It's just you know, we're

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Speaker 5: factoring in regression with Lamar Jackson, whereas with Mahomes, I

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Speaker 5: think there's just a higher ceiling going into this year.

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Speaker 4: Raybond, where are you on this? I mean, I have

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Speaker 4: the feeling because you said that the ceiling with Patrick

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Speaker 4: Mahomes is, you know, breaking records and having the greatest

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Speaker 4: passing season of all time for a quarterback. So my

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Speaker 4: senses you're leaning towards Mahomes in this, But where are you?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's not really as close as I think Sean

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Speaker 6: and Evan in terms of like one little thing could

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Speaker 6: swing the rankings. For me, Patrick Mahomes is clearly ahead

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Speaker 6: because the way I'm projecting is based on a range

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Speaker 6: of outcomes, and I think last year Lamar Jackson had

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Speaker 6: one of the top rangers of outcomes that he could

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Speaker 6: possibly have at any point in his career, whereas Patrick

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Speaker 6: Mahomes not only had one of the worst with dislocating

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Speaker 6: the kneecap and missing a couple of games and playing hurt,

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Speaker 6: you know, through a couple of others. But I think

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Speaker 6: Mahomes is still getting better as a passer. I think

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Speaker 6: the continuity is better. I think the supporting cast is

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Speaker 6: a lot better. So it's a credit to Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 6: what he did last year. Credit to Greg Roman, who

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Speaker 6: seems to take these quarterbacks that no one believe as

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Speaker 6: passers and makes them into, you know.

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Speaker 2: Very good quarterbacks.

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Speaker 6: But overall this year, I think Mahomes can break the

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Speaker 6: touchdown record. I think Mahomes could conceivably throw sixty scores

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Speaker 6: if on the top of his range of outcomes. And

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Speaker 6: I think Lamar Jackson's gonna run a little less because

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Speaker 6: he actually said that, and last year he said he

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Speaker 6: was going to run just the same amount, so I

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Speaker 6: do kind of listen in. I think when he was

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Speaker 6: kind of thrown off his game in that playoff game

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Speaker 6: against Tennessee, he got kicked off and he vowed to

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Speaker 6: get better as a passer, and I think he's going

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Speaker 6: to put that more on display this year, which is

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Speaker 6: good for him and for the growth of him as

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Speaker 6: a quarterback, but not necessarily great for fantasy because every

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Speaker 6: point he gets passing instead of rushing knocks him down

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Speaker 6: a bit. And I just don't think in terms of

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Speaker 6: the ceilings that they can compete. And that's even with

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Speaker 6: Lamar having a ceiling year. So I just think Lamar

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Speaker 6: had like a ninety five percent tile outcome last year.

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Speaker 6: Mahomes had like a tenth percentile outcome, and it's going

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Speaker 6: to kind of swing back around this year, and then

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Speaker 6: that puts Mahomes ahead.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Lamar broke the all time quarterback rushing record,

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Speaker 1: and he led the NFL in touchdown passes on the

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Speaker 1: team that had the fewest pass attempts in the league.

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Speaker 2: I know, yes, that's Roberts.

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Speaker 1: No, that's one hundred percent style outcome.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, okay, same, you.

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Speaker 3: Know, we're agreed. Agreed.

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Speaker 4: I guess I'll have to be the voice of dissent

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Speaker 4: on this. I mean, I think Lamar Jackson has It's

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Speaker 4: not to say that Patrick Mahomes doesn't have an incredibly

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Speaker 4: high floor, because he does Lamar Jackson, he could still

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Speaker 4: be the number one quarterback with even just one thousand

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Speaker 4: yards rushing this year. Let's say that he plays sixteen

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Speaker 4: games instead of fifteen games that he played last year.

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Speaker 4: Let's say that the games are a little bit closer,

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Speaker 4: so he doesn't have multiple games in which he's sitting

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Speaker 4: out the majority of the fourth quarter. If you drop

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Speaker 4: him from twelve hundred yards rushing to one thousand yards rushing,

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Speaker 4: you think, oh, we just took two hundred yards off

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Speaker 4: of his rushing total. Like, he's still easily leads all

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Speaker 4: quarterbacks in rushing. So I don't know, Like I still

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Speaker 4: and I see the point about the touchdown regression. I

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Speaker 4: think though, because of Raybond's point about he's going to

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Speaker 4: throw more, I think that regression is going to be

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Speaker 4: offset just a little bit because of the volume. So

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Speaker 4: instead of him dropping from like thirty five to twenty five,

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Speaker 4: I think maybe he drops from thirty five to thirty

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Speaker 4: or something like that. I still think with the progress

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Speaker 4: that we're going to see out of all of his

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Speaker 4: past catching options, we still see Lamar Jackson the top

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Speaker 4: two season. I mean, it's it's hard to split the

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Speaker 4: difference between Mahomes because he is the best all around

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Speaker 4: quarterback in the league. He does have continuity in the

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Speaker 4: staff and his weapons, and then they did just add

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Speaker 4: you know, like Brian Westbrook, Clone, Clyde Edwards, Hilaier. So

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Speaker 4: it's it's hard to say anything bad about Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 3: But I don't know.

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Speaker 4: If I had to take one of them, I would

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Speaker 4: probably lean a little bit towards Lamar Jackson. But I

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Speaker 4: will I will be the wimp and say, yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's it's a toss up between the two. I mean, Sewan,

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Speaker 4: you're you're kind of on this that it's a toss

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Speaker 4: up between the four guys after these two. Just in

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Speaker 4: terms of you know, there's Deshaun Watson, There's Dak Prescott,

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Speaker 4: Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray. All of these guys that are

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Speaker 4: going in the rounds four to five range. I think

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Speaker 4: it's it's really hard to rank them. A strong case

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Speaker 4: could really be made for any of these guys any order. Evan,

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Speaker 4: where are you on these these four quarterbacks? Watson, Prescott, Wilson, Kyler, Murray.

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Speaker 3: They're all pretty similar. I have them all.

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Speaker 1: I also have Josh Allen in this tier though, and

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Speaker 1: we'll get to him, but I mean I have Dak

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Speaker 1: as the quarterback three, Josh Allen as the quarterback four.

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson as the quarterback five, Russell Wilson as the

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Speaker 1: quarterback six, and then Kyler Murray as the quarterback seven.

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Speaker 1: And I think that they should all. He drafted in

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Speaker 1: the very same range. Josh Allen goes like two rounds

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Speaker 1: later than these guys, and so I think that he's

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Speaker 1: probably the best value. But I think that Dak Prescott

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Speaker 1: has like the best shot at a true MVP season.

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Speaker 1: I think that Deshaun Watson every year has a shot

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Speaker 1: at being the NFL MVP. I mean, you want to

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Speaker 1: talk about it, Dude, who just can put a team

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Speaker 1: on his back? Like that's Deshaun Watson. You know, there

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Speaker 1: is not a quarterback in the league it's better at

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Speaker 1: facing a deficit than Deshaun Watson. You know, that's the

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Speaker 1: quarterback that you want. I mean with the exception of

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Speaker 1: like Patrick Mahomes, but you know, if your team is

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Speaker 1: at a deficit, like he's so good playing with urgency

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Speaker 1: and and playing when trailing. His yards for pass attempt

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Speaker 1: in his career go from seven point seven with the

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Speaker 1: lead to eight point four when trailing, and his yards

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Speaker 1: per carrie go from four point four with the lead

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Speaker 1: to six point three when trailing. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: that DeAndre losing DeAndre Hopkins hurts him because it does

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Speaker 1: hurt him because he's always had that back shoulder, contested

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Speaker 1: catch winning receiver from Clemson with Mike Williams to Dejandre

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Speaker 1: Hopkins when he got into the NFL. But you know this,

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Speaker 1: you can also imagine this offense being like a four

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Speaker 1: vertical offense, and I mean, how much rushing equity could

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Speaker 1: that provide Deshaun Watson with all that speed on the field.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking myself now into moving him up ahead of

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen, but you know, I gotta stick to my

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Speaker 1: guns here because of all the MVP bets.

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Speaker 4: All Right, So a couple of things there, Evan. I'm

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Speaker 4: with you on Dak Prescott as the number three quarterback.

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Speaker 4: That's where I have him so much to like about him.

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Speaker 4: He still has offensive coordinator Killen Moore, so there's continuity there,

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Speaker 4: But now he's freed from head coach Jason Garrett. So

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Speaker 4: I think it's kind of the best of both worlds

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Speaker 4: when you're looking at the coaching staff situation. He still

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Speaker 4: has one thousand yard wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup,

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Speaker 4: and the team has added wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, who

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Speaker 4: I think is a pretty clear upgrade certainly in the

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Speaker 4: long term, maybe even in the short term on radl Cobb.

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Speaker 4: And then of course they have Blake Jarwin, who I

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Speaker 4: think is coming in as an upgrade on Jason Witten,

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Speaker 4: and he has the hashtag motivation of playing on the

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Speaker 4: franchise tag. So a lot to like about Dak Prescott

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Speaker 4: this year. And Evan, I'm also with you on Deshaun

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Speaker 4: Watson top five in points per game each of the

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Speaker 4: past three seasons. It obviously is I think suboptimal for

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Speaker 4: him that he's without DeAndre Hopkins, but he still has

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Speaker 4: a super strong wide receiver unit in Will Fuller, Brandon Cooks,

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Speaker 4: Kenny Stills. All of those guys are speedsters, which I

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Speaker 4: think suits the strength of Deshaun Watson. And then he

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Speaker 4: also has two very strong receiving backs and David and

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Speaker 4: Duke Johnson. So a lot to like about Deshaun Watson

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Speaker 4: as someone who is in the same tier as Dak Prescott. Sean,

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Speaker 4: I want to kick it to you thoughts on Watson

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Speaker 4: and Prescott and maybe how you stack them in comparison

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Speaker 4: to Wilson and Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, have this tier essentially tied. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 5: want to sound soft, you know, trying to take a

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Speaker 5: stand here, but I think that's that's where I am.

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Speaker 5: And you know, when it comes to this tier, I

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Speaker 5: think it just all comes down to whichever guy falls

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Speaker 5: I'm willing to take. And you know, Evan mentioned this earlier,

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Speaker 5: but it kind of depends on your format. If if

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Speaker 5: you're in a best ball or two QB league, I

398
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Speaker 5: think you definitely want to lock in one of these

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Speaker 5: top six qbs just because the upside for all these

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Speaker 5: guys are massive. Last year we had the benefit of

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Speaker 5: having guys like Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, even

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Speaker 5: Jamis Winston going later this year, I don't really see

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Speaker 5: them any guys in the QB two or beyond range

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Speaker 5: that are even worth you know, taking flyers. If I

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Speaker 5: don't get one of these top six qbs, I'm just

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Speaker 5: gonna punt QB and go streaming.

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Speaker 2: There's no reason not to.

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Speaker 5: Last year I had my streaming article where I was

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Speaker 5: able to stream you know, a QB six off the

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Speaker 5: waiver wire. So you always have that luxury and this year,

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Speaker 5: it's going to be even more prominent. Just with the

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Speaker 5: uncertainty with COVID. I think, you know, the streaming QB

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Speaker 5: strategy is going to be even more valuable. So, you know,

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Speaker 5: when it comes to these qbs, I agree with you, guys,

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Speaker 5: Deshaun Watson. He's he's probably the most solid pick of

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Speaker 5: these these four, just as four ceiling combo is untouchable.

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Speaker 5: With these guys, Dak is is probably the best way

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Speaker 5: to invest in this triou of receivers with Amari, Michael

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Speaker 5: Gallup and Ceedee Lamb. If you just want to invest

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Speaker 5: in all three of those guys, take Dak Prescott. I

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Speaker 5: think it's a great move. You know, when it comes

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Speaker 5: to Kyler Murray, he's typically taken a lot higher than

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Speaker 5: QB six, So this ADP of six doesn't really translate

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Speaker 5: to a lot of the drafts I've been In order

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Speaker 5: to get him, you have to, you know, spend a

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Speaker 5: top four pick at QB to get him.

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Speaker 2: You know, I think the upside's.

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Speaker 5: There, especially entering year two of DeAndre Hopkins, we could

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Speaker 5: see more of the true ceiling games that we didn't

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Speaker 5: really get to see his rookie season, So you know,

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00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:50,959
Speaker 5: I don't knock anybody that wants to take him as

432
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,359
Speaker 5: a top four QB. But the one guy that I

433
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 5: do think I've ended up with the most is Russell Wilson.

434
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 5: He's typically the last QB in this tier, so he's

435
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 5: typically falling to QB six, and I locked him up

436
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 5: because you know, we've become accustomed to the Seahawks being

437
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 5: established the run team to the detriment of Russell Wilson's ceiling.

438
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 5: But you know, he's shown that his flour is still

439
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 5: pretty high in that system. I still have hope, albeit small,

440
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 5: that they will unleash him this year. So giving him

441
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,439
Speaker 5: his QB six, I mean he has legit top QB

442
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 5: upside if they do let him attempt close to six

443
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 5: hundred passes.

444
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 3: And just wait until the Seahawks signed Antonio Brown exactly.

445
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 5: So I'm looking for breadcumbs like that, like Pete Carroll

446
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 5: coming to his senses or you know, signing Antonio Brown.

447
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 5: Those are the things that will trigger, you know, the

448
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 5: potential for six hundred pass attempts. Again, I'm not saying

449
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 5: it's going to happen, but my hopes are up this

450
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 5: year especially, I mean they were at eleven and five

451
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 5: team last year and they only led thirty three percent

452
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 5: of the time and trailed fifty percent of the time.

453
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 5: So you know they're relying on Russell Wilson for these

454
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 5: fourth quarter comebacks where you know they might as well

455
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 5: just throw early and then run the ball to pad

456
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 5: the lead. Again, I don't have faith that Pete Carroll

457
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 5: will come to the senses, but still the possibility is there,

458
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 5: and we already know.

459
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson's floor is pretty high as is.

460
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 5: So that's why I think taking Russell Wilson, if he

461
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 5: falls in this tier, is the way to go.

462
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 4: So, Sean, you have Kyvan Murray in the top three.

463
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,479
Speaker 4: I have him ranked number four, Russell Wilson I have

464
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 4: number six, and I think we are all there at

465
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 4: having Wilson number six. Raymond, I'd like to get your

466
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 4: thoughts specifically on Wilson in that Seahawks offense. So you

467
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 4: look at Russell Wilson. On the one hand, he's the

468
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 4: only quarterback in the NFL who has thirty passing touchdowns

469
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,439
Speaker 4: in each of the past three years, so he seems

470
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 4: to have a really high floor, but he's limited by

471
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 4: the antiquated run heavy system of offensive coordinator Brian Schoenheimer.

472
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 4: But you just think he has those two explosive wide

473
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 4: receivers and Tyler Lockett in the connection specifically that Wilson

474
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 4: has with Lockett is maybe up there with any other

475
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 4: connection that a quarterback and wide receiver has in the league.

476
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 4: Like that is a top tier I'd say, like top

477
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 4: top two, top three connection. And then you add in

478
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 4: DK Metcalf and what he did as a rookie, and

479
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 4: some people are talking that he could end up being

480
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 4: the number one wide receiver in the offense this year,

481
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 4: and that's certainly within the range of outcomes. But you

482
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 4: have these two really explosive wide receivers and you think

483
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 4: if they just decide to lean a little more to

484
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 4: the passing game, that could I mean, that could be

485
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,479
Speaker 4: massive things for Russell Wilson and so Raybond. The question is,

486
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 4: you looked at the Seahawks in twenty eighteen, they had

487
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 4: around a forty seven and a half percent pass rate,

488
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 4: easily last in the league, and then last year that

489
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 4: bumped up to fifty three percent, And so the question

490
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 4: is do you see them continuing to move along this

491
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 4: trajectory or do you see them starting to move back

492
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 4: towards what they did to where we have something that's

493
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 4: kind of in the middle. What do you see for

494
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 4: this Seahawks offense this year?

495
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's gonna be more of the same.

496
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 6: Unfortunately for Russell Wilson, because we got to stop blaming

497
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 6: these offensive coordinators. It's Pete Carroll and I look into

498
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 6: this these kind of things because organizational structure and kind

499
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 6: of who's calling the shots, I think gives me an

500
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 6: edge in terms of projecting things and even on a

501
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 6: week two week basis in terms of what kind of

502
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 6: decisions they're gonna make. Pete Carroll essentially fired Darryl Bevell

503
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 6: and brought in Shottenheimer because Schottenheimer was more aligned with

504
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 6: that true run for philosophy that Carol.

505
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 2: Enjoys and Bevill.

506
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 6: If you remember in twenty seventeen when the Seahawks defense

507
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 6: did kind of plummet and their running game disappeared, they

508
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 6: did unleash Russell Wilson and he did have an MVP

509
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 6: caliber season, and then Bevll was gone, and before that

510
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 6: it was all bev was to run heavy. Now shottenheimri

511
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 6: comes in and we're saying the same thing, but really,

512
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 6: this is what Pete Carroll wants, and so I don't

513
00:25:55,400 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 6: foresee it changing unless you see maybe Chris Carson goes down,

514
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 6: which always possible. They did bring in Carlos Hide, but

515
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 6: I think Penny's not gonna be there till mid season,

516
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 6: So it would have to take a whole kind of

517
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 6: a bunch of different factors coming together to really unleash that.

518
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 6: Russell Wilson in that pass office, I don't see it happening,

519
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 6: just as in terms of the media, and I think

520
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 6: you're gonna be right where you are, and that's that

521
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,239
Speaker 6: was a good stat Sean brought up about how they

522
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 6: went eleven and five and they weren't even leading that much.

523
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 2: It's totally also possible.

524
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 6: That you know they're in that you know, ten, nine

525
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 6: to eleven win range again, but they are leading a

526
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 6: lot more because you don't usually see eleven and five

527
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 6: teams that aren't leading for that long. So for me,

528
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 6: Russell Wilson, it should be the you know, the fifth

529
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 6: or the sixth guy in that in that tier.

530
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 2: I think Watson is a clear third or not a

531
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: clear third, but I think he.

532
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 6: Deserves third the most just because he's been top four

533
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 6: in per game production.

534
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 2: Each of his three years in the league.

535
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 6: I think Kyra is going a little too high, just

536
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 6: because we haven't seen him do it yet. We haven't

537
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,959
Speaker 6: seen him do what we're projecting for, you know, for him,

538
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 6: for these other we've seen these other guys do what

539
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 6: we're projecting for Kyler.

540
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 4: I love hearing Rayvon say he thinks Kyler is going

541
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 4: too high after just last year we were having a

542
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 4: miniature war to see which one of us could rank

543
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 4: him higher. So it's yeah, we're starting to come back

544
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 4: to our senses. Although I mean, you got to say,

545
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,919
Speaker 4: in Kyler Murray's favor, he's never had DeAndre Hopkins before

546
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 4: as someone to throw to.

547
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 6: So hey, let me say, let me say something quick

548
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,239
Speaker 6: about Hopkins, because I think this is I've heard this

549
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 6: all offseason. I've heard this from everybody. DeAndre Hopkins. It's

550
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,439
Speaker 6: gonna hurt Deshaun Watson, it's gonna benefit Kyler Murray.

551
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 2: DeAndre Hopkins is a great receiver, no doubt.

552
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 6: But we're talking about numbers here, We're talking about fantasy

553
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 6: bottom line numbers. Last season, DeAndre Hopkins averaged eleven point

554
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 6: two yards per catch. That's under the league average for

555
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 6: a receiver. He averaged seven point eight yards per target.

556
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 6: That is also under the league average for a wide receiver.

557
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:56,199
Speaker 6: So it's, as Evan pointed out, Houston and Watson's numbers

558
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 6: could actually increase from you know, doing more running, more

559
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 6: vertical passing concepts. And just because Hopkins is coming to

560
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 6: Arizona and potentially getting you know, one hundred and fifty

561
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 6: plus targets, doesn't necessarily mean that it has a major

562
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 6: impact on Kira Murray's bottom line passing statistics, especially in

563
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 6: terms of the yardge.

564
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 2: It could obviously add some touchdowns.

565
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 6: I don't think Arizona had much in that area last

566
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 6: year in the red zone, But just in terms of

567
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 6: the numbers, DeAndre Hopkins is more of a target volume

568
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 6: hog who you can throw to any time and reasonably

569
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 6: expect a catch.

570
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 2: But he's not a guy that's adding.

571
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 6: Huge efficiency numbers to you to your bottom line at

572
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 6: this point.

573
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, those receiving rate numbers, they were almost as good

574
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: as Max Williams receiving rate numbers. No, but seriously, I mean,

575
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 1: when you're pulling demere Bird, he's Sean Johnson or Trent

576
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: Sherfield out of the offense and inserting you know, DeAndre Hopkins,

577
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: like it's one of the biggest personal upgrades in the league.

578
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 3: But you're right.

579
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: I mean, DeAndre Hopkins was a like a one hundred

580
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: percent possession receiver last year. It's gonna be interesting to

581
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: see how they use him. I think he's gonna be

582
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: on the outside a lot. I don't think he's going

583
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 1: to get near the same target volume that he got

584
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 1: in Houston. And I mean I'm worried about I'm way

585
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: below consensus on DeAndre Hopkins.

586
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, Evan, I'm with you there On Downdre Hopkins. I

587
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 4: mean I think it's yeah, as you say, on the

588
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 4: one hand, a great upgrade at one position within the offense.

589
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 4: But on the other hand, just Dowdre Hopkins as a

590
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 4: fantasy player might not have the value that he had

591
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 4: in previous seasons.

592
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 3: Let's get to Josh Allen.

593
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 4: I think this is going to be the guy about

594
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 4: which we have maybe the most heated heat is the

595
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 4: wrong word. Intriguing discussion. Evan, you have him in your

596
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 4: top five, and I can see how you get there.

597
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 4: In twenty eighteen, in the final six games of his

598
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 4: rookie season, he was the number two overall fantasy quarterback.

599
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 4: Last year, he was the number eight fantasy quarterback. You

600
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 4: know that offense took a big step forward. You have

601
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 4: the additions of John Brown at wide receiver, Cole Beasley

602
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 4: as the slot receiver, and then the team just added

603
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 4: wide receiver Stefan Diggs via trade. You would have to

604
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 4: assume that based on what Stefan Diggs has done as

605
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 4: a deep ball receiver, based on Josh Allen's inaccuracy last year,

606
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 4: but the strength of his arm, that he's going to

607
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 4: improve in deep ball accuracy this year, which could really

608
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,719
Speaker 4: like help that offense take another big step forward. And

609
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 4: you mentioned you're all in on Josh Allen in part

610
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 4: because of the MVP bets. You can get Josh Allen

611
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 4: right now at DraftKings Sportsbook fifty to one to be

612
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 4: the MVP, and if he has an MVP caliber season,

613
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 4: I think you could see the narrative of how he

614
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 4: could end up winning the award. And I think that's

615
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 4: also kind of like half the battle of you know,

616
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 4: whether a guy wins an MVP or not, does he

617
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 4: have the narrative to go along with it. But Evan,

618
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 4: talk about Josh Allen, you have him in the top

619
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 4: five why do you think he belongs there?

620
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: So this is another situation where, just in general, just

621
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 1: approaching this season, I want to bet on continuity teams

622
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: that have a lot of offensive or defensive continuity or whatever.

623
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 1: The Bills have as much continuity as they're bringing back

624
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 1: their head coach. They're bringing back their OC Brian Dable,

625
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: who I think has proven to be pretty underrated. They're

626
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 1: bringing back their quarterback, their numbers one in two receivers

627
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: from last year, like all their offensive linemen, and the

628
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: big personnel change that they made was sort of like

629
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: we were just talking about with Arizona pulling out Duke

630
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: Williams and Isaiah McKenzie and Robert Australian for Sex Foster

631
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 1: and inserting Stefan Diggs, who led the entire NFL in

632
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 1: yards gained on passes caught twenty plus yards downfield last year.

633
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: That I like the way that the Bills are doing this.

634
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: They're doing this very analytically. They're like, what was the

635
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: weakness of our quarterback this past year, the worst deep

636
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 1: ball passer in the league. We know that he can

637
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: be better at that, So let's go get the best

638
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: deep ball receiver in the league and hope that that

639
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: elevates a part of Josh Allen's game in which he

640
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: has struggled. I think it's Stefan Diggs. All he really

641
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: needs to do is go get four or five of

642
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 1: those errant deep balls and it's going to make a

643
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: huge difference to their offense. I think we can get

644
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: out Josh Allen, and he averaged what six point nine

645
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 1: yards for pass attempt.

646
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 3: I think last year he could get him over seven

647
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 3: yards for pass attempt. He's led the.

648
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 1: NFL in rushing touchdowns by quarterbacks over the past two

649
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 1: years with seventeen, and he is second among all quarterbacks

650
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: in rushing yards per game over the last two seasons,

651
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: behind only Lamar Jackson averaging forty one rushing yards per game.

652
00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 1: I think that a thirty touchdown pass ten rushing is

653
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: very conceivable from Josh Allen, and I think that this

654
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 1: team could win ten to twelve games. And in that scenario,

655
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 1: how could Josh Allen not possibly not be in the

656
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 1: MVP conversation? And then I think that it will be

657
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 1: you know, if we're if we're going down the line,

658
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: like we bet against him in twenty twenty one, you know,

659
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: we bet on him to regress severely and maybe even

660
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: get benched or something like that. You know, but I

661
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: think that this is this year just sets up so

662
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: perfectly for Josh Allen that at fifty to one. I mean,

663
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: I don't know why you wouldn't bet it, honestly, you know,

664
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: just throw a few bucks at it or something. I mean,

665
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 1: it's it's it's a long shot, but I think it's

666
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 1: a great long shot.

667
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 3: Bet all right.

668
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 4: Well, not to put words in Shawn Corner's mouth, but

669
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 4: he totally disagrees with you. He has him ranked number eleven. Sean,

670
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 4: what's going on here? Because I gotta say, like I see,

671
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 4: I see both sides of it. I see the potential

672
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 4: downside obviously, and I think if we're looking at kind

673
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 4: of a median range of outcome, I can see why

674
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 4: Josh Allen would be ranked outside of the top ten.

675
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 4: But you know, also we're looking for upside. You want

676
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 4: to win your league, and Alan has the potential for upside.

677
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 4: Why are you relatively low on Allen?

678
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, so this is a complicated answer. I will say

679
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 5: for best ball, he is my QB seven, So you know,

680
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,280
Speaker 5: for best ball leagues you kind of want those spiked weeks.

681
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: He's perfect for that.

682
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 3: You know.

683
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 5: Back to Evan's point about Diggs helping his deep ball accuracy,

684
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 5: I agree one hundred percent. And it's evident when you

685
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 5: look at Diggs last year. He caught seventy six percent

686
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 5: of pass attempts twenty yards or more and seventy five

687
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 5: percent of those are catchable, which is double the league average.

688
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 5: And you could think, oh, maybe Kirk Cousins is a

689
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 5: good deep ball passer, But all other attempts, kirk Cousins

690
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 5: was right around league average with forty three percent of

691
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 5: his deep passes being catchable, which is right around where

692
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 5: Josh Allen was last year.

693
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 3: Actually, but Bills.

694
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 5: Receivers only caught twenty five percent of those. It was

695
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,760
Speaker 5: the second biggest discrepancy among quarterbacks. So I think it's

696
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 5: it's clear that Diggs sort of makes his quarterback more

697
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 5: accurate on v balls. He's able to track them down.

698
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 5: Like Evan said, you know a few of those errant

699
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 5: throws will turn into catches with dig So I think

700
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 5: Diggs definitely helps his upside. But when it comes to

701
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 5: redraft leagues, I already mentioned this, but after the top

702
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 5: six are gone, I'm punting on QB and I'm just streaming.

703
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 5: You know, one of the things with Josh Allen is

704
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 5: you're going to have to keep him on your in

705
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,479
Speaker 5: your starting lineup every week, which means, you know, two

706
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 5: matchups against New England, they actually play the Patriots week sixteen,

707
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 5: so you have to consider do you want to play

708
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 5: Josh Allen and your Fantasy football finals against the Patriots.

709
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 3: My answer to that is no. So when I'm playing

710
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 3: the Patriots defense in Week.

711
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 5: Sixteen, yeah, yeah, exactly.

712
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 3: So.

713
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 5: I mean there's there's all these underlying issues that I'm

714
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 5: just not willing to spend at high draft capital. I

715
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 5: can get behind the fifty to one MVP bet, I

716
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 5: definitely think you should throw a couple bucks on that.

717
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 5: But when it comes to weekly fans football, especially head

718
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 5: to head legs, you know, I don't want that sort

719
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 5: of inconsistency, but I do get it. He does have

720
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 5: a high stealing and then the other thing I'll point

721
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 5: out real quick is his rushing touchdown. I mean there

722
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 5: could be some regression there. Last year, Franco was brutal

723
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 5: in goal line situations. He only scored two out of

724
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 5: eleven attempts inside the five yard line. So you know,

725
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 5: I think they brought in Zach Moss especially to sort

726
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 5: of solidify that goal line back roll, hopefully, you know,

727
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 5: getting some pressure off Josh Allen on those those goal

728
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 5: line carries. So I think we could see one or

729
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 5: two fewer rushing touchdowns as well.

730
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: If Josh Allen scores like four rushing tds this year,

731
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: like we're screwed.

732
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 3: Like I'm screwed. It's over all right, Rayvon.

733
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,240
Speaker 4: I don't normally say this about you, but in this instance,

734
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 4: it seems like you're the voice of reason. Where Evan

735
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 4: is high on Josh Allen has him number four, Corner

736
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 4: is low has n't be at number eleven. You're splitting

737
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:53,760
Speaker 4: the difference, and you have him right around the consensus

738
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 4: at number seven. What is it that you see in

739
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,720
Speaker 4: Josh Allen that makes you think he's worthwhile at number seven,

740
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 4: but not any higher, not any lower.

741
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 6: I think for me, first of all, I don't like

742
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 6: Cortner at number eleven. That's that means he's below some

743
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,800
Speaker 6: guys that that are old and don't run that I can't.

744
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 2: I can't go that far, Corner, because I think if

745
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 2: you look at the top.

746
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 6: Six, you have Lamar and Mahomes and Watson and Kyler

747
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 6: and Dak.

748
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 2: And Wilson, all those guys can run.

749
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 6: I think you need quarterbacks that can run, and you

750
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 6: have to consider those guys before any other pocket passer

751
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 6: if you're trying to match that that top six.

752
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 2: So I can't really drop Allen that far.

753
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 6: But at the same time, you know, to Evan's point,

754
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 6: I also can't put Allen in a tier based solely

755
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 6: on a projection when he when he hasn't done it

756
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,919
Speaker 6: yet and we've seen these other guys do it. And

757
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 6: for me, the issue with Josh Allen and I and

758
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 6: I'm mad I went third because I'm usually the guy

759
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 6: that has all the good deep ball stats with with

760
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 6: Josh Allen and you can Sean and Evan stole them

761
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 6: from me, But I'll still give you to put in

762
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 6: more perspective how much I think Allen can improve as

763
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 6: a passer. He went three of twenty seven to wide

764
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 6: receivers not named John Brown.

765
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 2: On deep passes.

766
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 6: A year ago, Stefan Diggs was sixteen or twenty nine.

767
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 6: He was one of the only two receivers to get

768
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 6: more than twenty five deep targets and get a fifty

769
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 6: percent catch rate, so it's gonna be night and day. However,

770
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 6: the two underlying issues I well, really three underlying issues

771
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 6: I see with Allen. Number one, He's never had a

772
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 6: three hundred yard passing game. He's never even had a

773
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 6: two hundred eight yard passing game, so it's a it's

774
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 6: a projection. Number two, as Sean mentioned, rushing touchdown touchdowns

775
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 6: can regress. Rushing yards are the pretty much the most

776
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,439
Speaker 6: sticky stats for quarterbacks year to year per game.

777
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: Rushing touchdowns not quite as sticky there.

778
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 6: So he had nine last year in sixteen games eight

779
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 6: and twelve games the year before. That's very likely to

780
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 6: regress even if he continues to run at the same rate.

781
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 6: And then number three, and I view this as a

782
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 6: detriment because, again, as Evan pointed out, at the top

783
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 6: quarterbacks are so tightly you know, tight together. In terms

784
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 6: of the projections, Josh Allen has a good defense, and

785
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 6: to me, that's just not ideal. It might be ideal

786
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 6: ultimately for an MVP vote if the team wins twelve games,

787
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 6: but for a fantasy quarterback, I don't think you want

788
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 6: a good defense. I think you want a bad defense

789
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 6: like the Giants and Daniel Jones have, or the Bengals

790
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 6: and Joe Burrow have, or the Falcons and Matt Ryan have,

791
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 6: because that's going to get you those extra few throws,

792
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 6: those that extra amount, that extra few throws of pass

793
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 6: volume wait in the game and easy completion, you know,

794
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 6: easy pass volume with potentially a touchdown at the end

795
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 6: of it that you're just not getting out of Allen.

796
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,879
Speaker 6: And so that to me is a red flag as well.

797
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 6: So I can't drop Allen below the pocket passes, but

798
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 6: I also can't.

799
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 2: Put him in those top two tiers.

800
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 4: All Right, I'm with Raymond on this, but it's I'm

801
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 4: bizarrely also with corner where if I do projections, the

802
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 4: guy who comes out at number eleven for me just

803
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 4: in the median outcome is Josh Allen. But I if

804
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 4: I'm doing rankings, and again this kind of gets the

805
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 4: difference of rankings versus projections. You know, rankings you want

806
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 4: to take into account a number of factors that you

807
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:12,359
Speaker 4: don't really see just in your basic average projection. Like

808
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 4: you want to know if a guy has a high floor.

809
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 4: You want to know if he has a high ceiling,

810
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:18,919
Speaker 4: And I think Josh Allen has both of those because

811
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 4: of his rushing upside, and then also the addition of

812
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 4: Stefan Diggs and any progression that he takes in his

813
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 4: third year. So I have him ranked number seven, you know,

814
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 4: right around consensus there, and it is because of that

815
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 4: elevated floor with his rushing ability all right after Josh Allen,

816
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 4: we have this is he going to be.

817
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: A long year for the haters? Oracle, It's gonna be

818
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 1: a long year for the haters.

819
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 6: Josh Allen right now is better than Cam Newton. I'm

820
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 6: just going on record as saying that. Went on record

821
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 6: before and said it, I'll say it again, Josh. Everyone

822
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,399
Speaker 6: wishes Cam Newton will be what Josh Allen is right now.

823
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 4: That's I don't even know what to say. I'm saving

824
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 4: it for the next episode.

825
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: I want to say one more thing to address one point,

826
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 1: the point that Raybaon made, which I think is a

827
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: great point generally, but I think specifically as it pertains

828
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 1: to Josh Allen, having a good defense is a good

829
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,359
Speaker 1: thing for him because you don't want to playing out

830
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 1: of control, because he has a tendency to play out

831
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 1: of control, like we can we want Deshaun Watson to

832
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: be playing out of control, right, and we want him

833
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 1: to have a bad defense Russ. We want him to

834
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 1: be playing with urgency. We don't want we want Josh

835
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: Allen to play under control, and we want him to

836
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 1: score rushing touchdowns at the goal line, and you know,

837
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 1: we want him to like you know, he can be

838
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 1: a really streaky player, and we want him to stay

839
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: on the hot streaks and not. You remember that playoff

840
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: game against the Texans. What a disaster. I was all

841
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: over the Bills to win that game out right. I

842
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 1: think they were dogs, they had it, and he started

843
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 1: playing out of control. They just totally melted down. One

844
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 1: of the toughest games to watch when if you had

845
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 1: some money on that, that was just absolutely brutal. But

846
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 1: I actually think that it's a good thing for Josh Allen,

847
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:05,280
Speaker 1: giving him better field position and keeping him under control.

848
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 3: I think that that's where Josh Allen needs to be.

849
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 6: Hey, Evan, I mean, if you followed me in the

850
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 6: Action Network app, you would have seen that the sharp

851
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 6: pick was actually Texans minus two and a half. However,

852
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 6: to your second point, I think that's a good point.

853
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 6: I think that's a good point that you do want

854
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 6: him to play.

855
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 3: The Bills had that. The Bills had that game.

856
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 6: I also had that that that cover. But I think

857
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 6: you're you're right that we do want Josh Allen to

858
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:28,279
Speaker 6: play under control. However, that just points me back to

859
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 6: the red flag of you're you're kind of cutting it

860
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 6: close when you talk about his ultimate ceiling versus what

861
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 6: he's already done.

862
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 2: Because again, because Josh Allen has been able to.

863
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 6: Play under control, He's never had a three hundred yard

864
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 6: passing he's never had a two hundred eighty yard passing game.

865
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,359
Speaker 6: And like, I get like, I'm all over Stefan Diggs

866
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 6: improving him.

867
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 1: But just I don't care about him when he's rushing

868
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: off for forty one yards per game, you know, I

869
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 1: don't care. I mean, that's an interesting stat. You know,

870
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: it's it's like, you know, stump the Schwab stat. But

871
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 1: you know, I don't really care when he's rushing for

872
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 1: forty one and he's throwing for you know, two sixty,

873
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: because we're we're getting to three hundred then anyways, but can't.

874
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 6: But but if you look at the top six guys,

875
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 6: you could any one of those guys could rush for

876
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 6: forty one and throw for three hundred, you know, and

877
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 6: and Lamar Jackson even can can you know, we've seen

878
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 6: him throw for some big games. So I'm just saying

879
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 6: it's a projection. It's where he hasn't done it yet.

880
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 6: That's why I'm saying seven for him. But I don't

881
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 6: get me wrong, I'm not a Josh Allen hater at all.

882
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 6: He's better than Cam Newton right now.

883
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 4: I mean to to Evan's point, Lamar Jackson had just

884
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 4: one game last year with over three hundred passing yards,

885
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 4: and that was in Week one against the horrible Miami Dolphins.

886
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 2: And the playoffs the playoffs two right, right?

887
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 3: Correct?

888
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 4: Correct? Sorry, the playoffs right? But yeah, So anyway, it's

889
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 4: it's not necessarily mandatory that Josh Allen throws for a

890
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 4: whole bunch of yards in order to provide a lot

891
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 4: of fantasy value. Let's talk about after Josh Allen, there's

892
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 4: a tier of five guys who all kind of feel

893
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 4: like versions of each other. With the exception of Carson Wentz,

894
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 4: you have Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Drew Brees,

895
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers. For the most part, pocket passers, older guys,

896
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 4: they're not gonna give you much with their legs. They're

897
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:14,320
Speaker 4: all going in rounds eight through ten, and this feels

898
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 4: like a range of quarterbacks in which I'm not wanting

899
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 4: to invest in the position. At the same time, you

900
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 4: can see how one of these guys could end up having,

901
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:28,280
Speaker 4: you know, a top three, maybe top five fantasy season

902
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:32,439
Speaker 4: if things align right. Evan, where are you on these

903
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 4: five quarterbacks? Is there anyone in particular that stands out

904
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 4: to you?

905
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Aaron Rodgers doesn't belong in this tier.

906
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:42,240
Speaker 2: Yes, I was shaking him ahead the whole time.

907
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 1: Like, not a good fantasy quarterback anymore, you know, not

908
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 1: a good fantasy quarterback. What did he throw for three

909
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 1: hundred yards like three times or four times all last

910
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 1: year including the playoffs. They're like trying to minimize his

911
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: impact on the game. They just drafted his replacement. They

912
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 1: drafted a freaking Kyle Yuschek clone in the third round,

913
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 1: after forty seven pound running back in the second.

914
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 3: Don't draft Aaron Rodgers please.

915
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 1: I mean, he goes like way higher than he should

916
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 1: in every single draft, and it's based entirely on name recognition.

917
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 1: He's not a good fantasy quarterback anymore. Drew Brees, I

918
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 1: have him really low because Taysom Hill is gonna take

919
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 1: like seven touchdowns, and like, I mean, there's there's an

920
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: element to fantasy bool like you want to have fun.

921
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:29,359
Speaker 1: There's nothing less fun than seeing your fantasy quarterback get

922
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: pulled out and Taysom Hill come in to score a

923
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 1: damn touchdown. Alvin Kamara is gonna get hit with major

924
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 1: positive touchdown regression. I think I'm not real big on

925
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 1: Drew Brees. They got Jamis. I do like Carson Wentz

926
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 1: quarterback ten and ADP Tom Brady. You know, I have

927
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 1: all his pass catchers in really good spots. But for

928
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 1: him individually, he has nothing with his legs. He's got

929
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 1: a brutal schedule to open the season. He's got a

930
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 1: Week one at the Saints. That's one of the I

931
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 1: guess you could try to sell yourself on that being

932
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 1: a shootout, although the Saints don't really necessarily play that way.

933
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 1: I don't think the Bucks are going to play that way.

934
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 1: Their defense is going to be awesome. I mean they might,

935
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 1: they might have like a top five defense this year.

936
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 1: In the Week two at home, they come back home

937
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 1: and they face the Panthers, we can you know, tee

938
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: off on the Panthers that they may have the worst

939
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 1: defense in the league this year, But then it's at

940
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 1: the Broncos in Week three early in the season at

941
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:20,760
Speaker 1: Mile High is always a poor bet. Week four against

942
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 1: the Chargers they have one of the most talented defense

943
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 1: in the league. Week five on a short week, Thursday

944
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:28,920
Speaker 1: night football at Soldier Field. So I mean, are you

945
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: really even gonna when are you gonna want to start

946
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: Tom Brady in there against the Panthers. Other than that,

947
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 1: he's probably not going to be a top twelve fantasy

948
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 1: quarterback starter on the week in all those other initial

949
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 1: five games, So I think at the end of the day,

950
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 1: his weapons are.

951
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:45,720
Speaker 3: Going to get you know, they're going to get theirs.

952
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: But I think that Tom Brady is not someone that

953
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 1: I want to be starting to begin the season. And

954
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 1: then Matt Ryan, I mean, he's a guy that like, yeah,

955
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,839
Speaker 1: I'm definitely willing to draft him, especially if I get

956
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 1: Ridley or Julio early, but he always goes like before

957
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 1: I'm willing to.

958
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 4: Take Sean any any thoughts on those guys, I believe

959
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:09,240
Speaker 4: the one that you are the highest on is Matt Ryan.

960
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 4: And then Carson Wentz And yeah, I mean Ryan leads

961
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 4: the NFL with nine four thousand yard passing seasons over

962
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 4: the past decade. He has continuity with offensive coordinator Dirk Cutter.

963
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:25,439
Speaker 4: He has two guys who you know potentially could both

964
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 4: be wide receiver ones in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Sean,

965
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,600
Speaker 4: I know that you have a long shot bet on

966
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 4: Calvin Ridley actually to lead the league in receiving. This

967
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 4: offense is likely to continue to play at a fast

968
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 4: pace and throw frequently. So lots of things to like

969
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:45,760
Speaker 4: about Matt Ryan. And then Carson Wentz top ten fantasy

970
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 4: quarterback last year despite having massive injuries at the wide

971
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 4: receiver position. He was the number two fantasy quarterback in

972
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 4: points per game in twenty seventeen when he had an

973
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 4: an MVP caliber season that was cut short. You know,

974
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 4: DeShawn Jackson is returning, presumably healthy. The team added Jalen

975
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:07,760
Speaker 4: Rager in the first round. Those are the two guys

976
00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 4: who stand out to me the most in this in

977
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:14,760
Speaker 4: this range of quarterbacks as guys I would I would

978
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:18,720
Speaker 4: want to take if I were looking to invest here, Sean,

979
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:19,840
Speaker 4: what do you think of these guys?

980
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, this tier is kind of deceiving and just to

981
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 5: take a step back, you guys are absolutely right. You know,

982
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 5: my rankings are based on median projection, So Matt Ryan's

983
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:30,919
Speaker 5: way higher than I would draft him, and that's why

984
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 5: I do my tiers and strategy articles. I'll be explicit about.

985
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 5: You know, the fact that I have Matt Ryan ranked

986
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 5: higher than Josh Allen doesn't mean I'll draft him above him.

987
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 5: I won't be drafting any of these guys, Like I said,

988
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:43,360
Speaker 5: as soon as the top six are off the board,

989
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 5: that's it. I'm punting the position completely and streaming QB

990
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 5: for the twenty twenty season. I have Josh Allen, you know,

991
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:52,919
Speaker 5: is my QB seven and best ball. When it comes

992
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 5: to best ball, I'm only drafting Matt Ryan. If I

993
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 5: have Julio Jones or Calvern Lee are going to stack

994
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 5: you know, stack him with Hayden Hers as well. So

995
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 5: Matt Ryan is purely just an upside stack with these

996
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,279
Speaker 5: other guys. But yeah, he's a safe pick. I'm not

997
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 5: making safe picks at this point in the draft at QB.

998
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,319
Speaker 5: I'm loading up at wide receiver, running back still, So

999
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 5: I think all these guys they might have good upside

1000
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 5: or you know, seem like a good safety net, but

1001
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 5: just when it comes to redraft leagues, you don't really

1002
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,240
Speaker 5: want to invest in these guys. Carson Wentz is probably

1003
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 5: the most appealing player of this group, just because everything

1004
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 5: might line up for him this year, and we've seen

1005
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 5: how that works out. You know, last year he was

1006
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 5: decimated at wide receiver. You know, he was forced to

1007
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 5: throw it a greg Ward Junior a lot towards the

1008
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:38,279
Speaker 5: end of last year. So I think if Djacks can

1009
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 5: stay healthy and out of trouble, and Jalen Rager, you know,

1010
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:43,919
Speaker 5: is able to hit his dride his rookie season, having

1011
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 5: that deep threat will unlock his ceiling. And we saw that,

1012
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 5: you know, he had d Jacks healthy for one game

1013
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 5: last year and he went off for eight catches, one

1014
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty four yeards and two touchdowns. So I

1015
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,319
Speaker 5: think Wentz really does possess that sort of upside that's

1016
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:58,959
Speaker 5: worth shooting for this range. I'm just saying that once

1017
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 5: you get to this point in the draft and you

1018
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 5: don't have a Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Kyler, Murray, Deshaul Watson,

1019
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 5: those guys, you might as well just punt and stream

1020
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:10,280
Speaker 5: the position weekly. So this this group is kind of deceiving.

1021
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 5: It's kind of you kind of just want to take

1022
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 5: a quarterback so you can show your buddies your team

1023
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 5: after the draft, like, look, I got Drew Brees, but

1024
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:19,800
Speaker 5: at this point, just punt the position and take a receiver,

1025
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 5: running back, er tight end.

1026
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 4: If you're hurting that Raybon you mentioned earlier when Evan

1027
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 4: was talking Aaron Rodgers, someone you are very low on.

1028
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 4: You have him ranked number fifteen, which even to me

1029
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 4: feels low and I'm totally on the train of this

1030
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 4: team is going to look to run and run and

1031
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 4: run again, especially with you know, Derrick Henry clone aj Dillon.

1032
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 4: Talk about what you are seeing and particularly what you're

1033
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:49,760
Speaker 4: projecting with the Packers offense that would make you put

1034
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 4: Rogers at number fifteen.

1035
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 2: Well, if you look.

1036
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:55,760
Speaker 6: At Rogers' numbers over the last four or five years,

1037
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 6: the arts per attend has been right around league averager

1038
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 6: below right in at seven to seven point four range,

1039
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 6: which now you're relying purely on his touchdown, his touchdown upside,

1040
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:09,360
Speaker 6: and yes he has a great touchdown interception ratio.

1041
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:10,120
Speaker 2: You're in, you're out.

1042
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 6: But that interception ratio, in particular, I think is what

1043
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 6: hurts Aaron Rodgers because he is playing very careful with

1044
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 6: the ball, and you know, as a result, he's not

1045
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 6: really making those out of structure huge plays down the

1046
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 6: field that we've come to know him for and have

1047
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 6: given him his upside in the past. So you could

1048
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 6: conceivably put Rogers I think, you know, close to twentieth

1049
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 6: and I wouldn't argue with you, and I might even

1050
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 6: drop him because there's nothing I think that that is

1051
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 6: propping Rogers up at this point.

1052
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 2: He's not really running the way quite as much as

1053
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 2: he used to, you know, to stay in an effort

1054
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 2: to stay healthy, I presume.

1055
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 6: And you look at the offense and Devonte Adams is

1056
00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 6: another example of one of those receivers that gets a

1057
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 6: ton of targets, but in terms of his actual efficiency numbers,

1058
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 6: he's right around the league average and yards per time target.

1059
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 6: And you know, it's a real fragile situation where if

1060
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,840
Speaker 6: Adams were to go down and we saw this playout

1061
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 6: last year, it gets really ugly for Aaron Rodgers. And

1062
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:13,759
Speaker 6: Aaron Rodgers in a pretty high volume year last year,

1063
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 6: in a year where he went deep at one of

1064
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 6: the highest rates in the league, still was an extremely average,

1065
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:23,280
Speaker 6: middling fantasy quarterback who had a couple of big weeks

1066
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 6: against the worst defenses in the league, but not much else.

1067
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 6: So I have Rogers projected for a little bit under

1068
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:35,879
Speaker 6: four thousand passing yards, twenty five touchdowns, eight interceptions, and

1069
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:41,319
Speaker 6: about another two hundred yards on the ground. So yeah,

1070
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:45,360
Speaker 6: he comes in very middling in that tier where you know,

1071
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:47,320
Speaker 6: you take a point or two away and all of

1072
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 6: a sudden he's behind, you know, Goff and Stafford and

1073
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,400
Speaker 6: Roethlisberger and all those guys. So I could see myself

1074
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 6: actually dropping Rogers because I don't think that that Green

1075
00:52:57,239 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 6: Bay has any intention wedding this guy.

1076
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 2: Just throw it around the.

1077
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 3: Yard, Okay.

1078
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:05,719
Speaker 4: So to put some context on this, Sean, I want

1079
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 4: you to give us Basically, I want to know what

1080
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 4: you think the odds are that at some point this

1081
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 4: year Aaron Rodgers gets pinched. So the context for this

1082
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 4: is the Packers were more of a run heavy team

1083
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 4: last year than they had been previously. It looks like

1084
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:24,400
Speaker 4: they're attempting to de emphasize Aaron Rodgers even more given

1085
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 4: what they did in the draft Jordan Love in round one.

1086
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 4: They took aj Dillon a round two h Bac Josiah

1087
00:53:30,600 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 4: Deguara in round three. Just let's say they start the

1088
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 4: season somehow zero to five or whatever. Right, what do

1089
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:39,880
Speaker 4: you think the odds are Sean that at some point

1090
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 4: this year Aaron Rodgers is benched.

1091
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 2: I would say it's very low. I would say like

1092
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 2: two percent, fifty to one odds.

1093
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:48,240
Speaker 3: I would say it's more likely.

1094
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 5: That Josh Allen wins MVP than Aaron Rodgers gets benched.

1095
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 5: But I mean, i'd offer with Viig included fifty to

1096
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:56,280
Speaker 5: one odds that Aaron Rodgers gets benched.

1097
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:57,799
Speaker 2: I just don't see that happening this year.

1098
00:53:58,280 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 4: Evan, what do you think about that line?

1099
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:02,359
Speaker 1: I think it should be it should be shorter than that.

1100
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:04,799
Speaker 1: I mean, they draft their first round quarterback and it's

1101
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:05,800
Speaker 1: really that simple.

1102
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:08,280
Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, I hate to go against

1103
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 3: the odds makers. It's good.

1104
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 2: It should be like a thousand to one. He's not

1105
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 2: getting come home.

1106
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 6: This is the same argument that we've had, and it's

1107
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 6: important to talk about because we've we've this comes up

1108
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 6: with AJ Dillon, but Aaron Rodgers. The reason I don't

1109
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:25,240
Speaker 6: think Aaron Rodgers is gonna throw it around and whatnot

1110
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 6: is because he just simply doesn't have players to throw to.

1111
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:31,320
Speaker 6: But in terms of him getting benched or his status

1112
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 6: in the lineup, I think there's a disconnect between Matt

1113
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 6: Leffloor the head coach, and Brian guten kusta GM. The

1114
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:41,880
Speaker 6: floor isn't a guy who's his input is like number

1115
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 6: one in deciding who they go out and draft, who

1116
00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 6: they sign a free agency.

1117
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 1: You made this point on the last show, Rayvon, and

1118
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:51,160
Speaker 1: I disagree with you here, man, But how.

1119
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 2: Can you disagree It's true, it's a fact.

1120
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 3: You can go read home.

1121
00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 2: It's not what it is.

1122
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 3: It's your take.

1123
00:54:56,520 --> 00:54:59,280
Speaker 6: Go read any packers beat report about their draft process

1124
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 6: and what they do and the.

1125
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 3: Payroll bro.

1126
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:04,879
Speaker 6: So if they're on the payroll and they're saying that

1127
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:07,720
Speaker 6: Matt Lafleur doesn't have as much influence, then.

1128
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:12,160
Speaker 2: The people that do have influence.

1129
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 1: Okay, the second round pick of as Oracle made the

1130
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 1: point of on the last show, it's like a spitting

1131
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:22,440
Speaker 1: image of Derrick Henry and who technically unlocked Derrick Henry

1132
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,280
Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur for the third round. Where does Matt Lafleur

1133
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 1: come from? The Kyle Shanahan background. They sold freaking Jacob

1134
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: Deguara as the next Kyle Us And I'm giving you

1135
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:35,200
Speaker 1: my take. This is not fact, but this is a take,

1136
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 1: and I think it's a better evidence take, evidence fact

1137
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 1: take than yours.

1138
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:41,879
Speaker 6: I disagree because, first of all, it's beat writers around

1139
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:44,759
Speaker 6: record as saying that Daguara was a pick.

1140
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 2: So that's fair.

1141
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:47,880
Speaker 6: We've seen this in the past, and it's important to

1142
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 6: to understand these disconnects. Like the same way when Rashad

1143
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 6: Penny was drafted in Seattle a couple of years ago,

1144
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 6: and he was a first round pick, because first round

1145
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 6: picks have a certain average of usage, everyone amediate immediately

1146
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 6: penciled him in for.

1147
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 2: That kind of usage. But that wasn't a Pete Carroll.

1148
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 3: Pitt and I agree with that.

1149
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 2: You have to keep in mind we have to agree with.

1150
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 1: That, but but the pick was made in essence to

1151
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 1: support the philosophy of Pete Carroll. Hey, we're giving you

1152
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 1: another running back talent or are you know? We really

1153
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:19,040
Speaker 1: liked what Chris Carson gave us, uh, you know, in

1154
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 1: his first year, but he like fractured his leg.

1155
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:23,640
Speaker 3: But Pete Carroll loved him from.

1156
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:25,759
Speaker 1: Chris Carson, and I mean, I think generally has been

1157
00:56:26,080 --> 00:56:28,399
Speaker 1: you know, right about him, although the fumbles last year

1158
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 1: were maddening. But I don't know, it's it's an interesting discussion.

1159
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 1: I'm just saying we have to be aware of these.

1160
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 6: I'm not saying I'm not trying to say that this

1161
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:40,240
Speaker 6: is like the reason that Aaron Rodgers never will get benched.

1162
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 6: I'm just saying I think I believe that there it

1163
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:44,719
Speaker 6: could be a take. I believe I believe there is

1164
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:47,759
Speaker 6: a disconnect between the front office in Green Bay and

1165
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:50,480
Speaker 6: Matt Lafleur, who was who was just brought in last year,

1166
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:52,799
Speaker 6: is in year or two and is not going to

1167
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:55,120
Speaker 6: bench a future Hall of Famer. That's my take. I

1168
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 6: think the front office is thinking for down the line. Hey,

1169
00:56:57,640 --> 00:57:00,439
Speaker 6: Rogers is in decline, Aaron Jones is playing so good

1170
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:02,200
Speaker 6: that he's gonna warrant more money than we're.

1171
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:02,919
Speaker 2: Willing to pay him.

1172
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:05,760
Speaker 6: And that's the reason you have those two picks, whether

1173
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:07,880
Speaker 6: the floor is there or it's any other guy at

1174
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:08,359
Speaker 6: head coach.

1175
00:57:08,719 --> 00:57:12,279
Speaker 4: Okay, anyway, I'm gonna be chalky with odds maker here

1176
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:15,720
Speaker 4: and say fifty to one for Aaron Rodgers being benched.

1177
00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 4: That that feels, that feels in the wheelhouse, that feels

1178
00:57:19,080 --> 00:57:21,760
Speaker 4: about right to me. All right, Evan, what do you

1179
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 4: guys have going on? I'd established the run just.

1180
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 3: Started an NBA section.

1181
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:29,800
Speaker 1: Really excited for that with Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Gallagher

1182
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 1: and Mike Leoni. It's gonna We're gonna crush the NBA.

1183
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 1: Really looking forward to playing some NBA myself. Hopefully training

1184
00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 1: camp is on the horizon. It appears so lots going on,

1185
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 1: And thanks so much you guys for having me on.

1186
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 1: This was an absolute blast. I listened to like almost

1187
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 1: every single one year guys podcasts, and you guys do

1188
00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:50,400
Speaker 1: great analysis.

1189
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 3: And thanks for having me on.

1190
00:57:51,520 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 4: All right, Evan, always a blast to have you on

1191
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 4: the show. Everyone. You can follow Evan on Twitter at

1192
00:57:56,120 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 4: Evan Silva. In our next NFL episode will break down

1193
00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:02,000
Speaker 4: all of the late round quarterbacks. You can follow Sean,

1194
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:04,400
Speaker 4: Chris and me in the Action Network ap at the

1195
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 4: Underscore Oddsmaker Chris Ravon and Matt f the Oracle. Please

1196
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 4: subscribe to and rate and review the show and listen

1197
00:58:09,760 --> 00:58:27,320
Speaker 4: and download on Spotify. See you again next episode.

1198
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 3: We're finished talking