1
00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

2
00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:10,559
Speaker 2: Good morning.

3
00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,440
Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

4
00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:14,960
Speaker 3: stories we're following today.

5
00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,800
Speaker 4: Karen, we begin with the latest on Iran. President Trump

6
00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,560
Speaker 4: has signed the Interim Deal to end the war and

7
00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:25,040
Speaker 4: reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The President insists the agreement

8
00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,720
Speaker 4: will ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, but he's

9
00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,720
Speaker 4: suggesting Tehran should still have the right to enrich uranium

10
00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:35,680
Speaker 4: for electricity, access its frozen funds, and develop ballistic missiles.

11
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,800
Speaker 5: If other countries have them. It's a little bit unfair

12
00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 5: for them not to have some. A ballistic missile is

13
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,400
Speaker 5: not the same thing as what we're talking about when

14
00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:49,080
Speaker 5: we talk nuclear, But if Saudi Arabian, Qatar and they

15
00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,519
Speaker 5: all have some, I would say, in relative proportion, I

16
00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:53,239
Speaker 5: think it's so good.

17
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,240
Speaker 4: Speaking at the G seven, summited remarks heard live on

18
00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,680
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Radio, President Trump also defended the three hundred billion

19
00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:02,480
Speaker 4: dollars development program that's included in the agreement.

20
00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,600
Speaker 2: We have their money. We have taken them our money.

21
00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:10,160
Speaker 6: It's their money, and we froze it at a certain

22
00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:11,039
Speaker 6: point in time.

23
00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:13,360
Speaker 2: I guess we're going to have to give it back.

24
00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:15,400
Speaker 6: You know, if we didn't give it back, nobody would

25
00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:16,960
Speaker 6: ever invest in the dollar again.

26
00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,399
Speaker 4: And despite President Trump's assurances, it is unclear whether Ron

27
00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,400
Speaker 4: has begun taking steps to fully reopen the strait of

28
00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:24,520
Speaker 4: Hormos Well.

29
00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,080
Speaker 3: Nathan Bloomberg Middle East, corresponded to aber ambu Omar, says

30
00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:34,000
Speaker 3: the interim deal opens the door to sixty days of negotiations.

31
00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,520
Speaker 7: Mainly about the nuclear program, mainly about Iran's ability to

32
00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,639
Speaker 7: get a hold of those frozen assets if it falls

33
00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:42,960
Speaker 7: apart and the concessions are not met. President Trump did

34
00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:45,800
Speaker 7: threaten military strikes could go back again if he doesn't

35
00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:46,560
Speaker 7: like the situation.

36
00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,160
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's a Bier abu Omar reporting from Dubai. Details of

37
00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,800
Speaker 3: the deal have prompted criticism from President Trump's fellow Republicans.

38
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,440
Speaker 3: His first term Vice President Mike Pence tells Bloomberg Government

39
00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,720
Speaker 3: the agreement falls short of verifiably dismissed to linger Round's

40
00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:05,400
Speaker 3: nuclear weapons program. The National Iranian American Council, meanwhile, is

41
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,720
Speaker 3: cheering the deal, saying the measurers in the agreement should

42
00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,919
Speaker 3: not be read as concessions. President Trump is firing back

43
00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,240
Speaker 3: at critics on truth Social this morning, saying quote, fools

44
00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,480
Speaker 3: who think he hasn't been tough enough on Iran are

45
00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,799
Speaker 3: either jealous, bad, or stupid.

46
00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:21,120
Speaker 2: Well Karen.

47
00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,040
Speaker 4: Following news of the deal, gas prices have fallen below

48
00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,520
Speaker 4: four dollars a gallon for the first time since March.

49
00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,560
Speaker 4: Triple A's nationwide average for regular unlet it is now

50
00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,040
Speaker 4: three dollars in ninety nine point nine cents.

51
00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,400
Speaker 2: Crude continues to tumble as well.

52
00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,880
Speaker 4: West Texas Intermediate's down two point six percent on the

53
00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:39,400
Speaker 4: session trading just sh I have seventy five dollars a barrel,

54
00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,040
Speaker 4: Brent's below seventy eight dollars for a drop of two

55
00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:46,480
Speaker 4: point two percent. Katie Kaminski's chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex.

56
00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,800
Speaker 4: She says the downward pressure on well makes sense, but

57
00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:49,960
Speaker 4: carries some risks.

58
00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,800
Speaker 8: The hopes that things just open and then everything's going

59
00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,680
Speaker 8: to be fine may be a little bit optimistic, and

60
00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:57,760
Speaker 8: I think that's a worry that we do see because

61
00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:01,080
Speaker 8: you still see some long signals in energies. But I

62
00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,880
Speaker 8: think it's really going to depend on how that precedes

63
00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:05,960
Speaker 8: the next week or so, and so I think if

64
00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,079
Speaker 8: the energy shock ended or will be ending. That's very

65
00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:10,200
Speaker 8: positive for markets.

66
00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,920
Speaker 4: Katie Comminski at Alpha Simplex says Oil's move is a

67
00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,959
Speaker 4: positive sign for risk assets, the FED and inflation.

68
00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,920
Speaker 3: There are more moves in geopolitics. This morning, Nathan Defense

69
00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 3: Secretary Pete haig Seth is announced a review of US

70
00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,720
Speaker 3: military assets in Europe.

71
00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:28,560
Speaker 9: I'm announcing today a six month Department of War review

72
00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:33,079
Speaker 9: that will examine America's force posture and basing in Europe

73
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,040
Speaker 9: and stepping up to make sure that our access, basing

74
00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:40,680
Speaker 9: and overflight are clearly delineated and assured.

75
00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,520
Speaker 3: Defense Secretary pet hag Seth spoke at a NATO meeting

76
00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,120
Speaker 3: in Brussels. He says the review will be designed to

77
00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,520
Speaker 3: ensure Europe's steps up to take primary responsibility for its

78
00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:50,200
Speaker 3: own defense.

79
00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,760
Speaker 4: Well, Karen, let's turn now to the FED and its

80
00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,640
Speaker 4: historic first meeting under new cher Kevin Walsh. Policymakers voted

81
00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:00,080
Speaker 4: unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged. Warsh made clear the

82
00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:02,600
Speaker 4: Central Bank will not tolerate high inflation.

83
00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:07,200
Speaker 10: Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people,

84
00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,920
Speaker 10: but the recent pass need not be prolonged. I am

85
00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:15,720
Speaker 10: pleased to report that members of the FMC are unambiguous

86
00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,680
Speaker 10: and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.

87
00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,120
Speaker 4: FED chair Kevin Warsh also anounced a number of new

88
00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,920
Speaker 4: task forces, including one focused on the Central bank six

89
00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,479
Speaker 4: point seven trillion dollar balance sheet. One thing worsh didn't

90
00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:33,240
Speaker 4: do is submit an interest rate path projection signaling changes

91
00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:34,720
Speaker 4: ahead for forward guidance.

92
00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:38,360
Speaker 10: Some along the committee I think dropped it. I suspect

93
00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:40,960
Speaker 10: from our discussion the last couple of days because they said,

94
00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,119
Speaker 10: at this moment in time, it doesn't feel as though

95
00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:48,440
Speaker 10: providing forward guidances right. Others have I'd say, different views

96
00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:52,000
Speaker 10: and think as a general proposition, forward guidance isn't the

97
00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:53,240
Speaker 10: business we should be in.

98
00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,440
Speaker 4: Chairman Warsh also says he'll have FED staff and outside

99
00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:00,560
Speaker 4: experts review the Central banks forward guidance and communication practices,

100
00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:02,200
Speaker 4: including the dot plot.

101
00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,440
Speaker 3: Well Kevin Morris's comments Nathan they sparked a sell off

102
00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:08,279
Speaker 3: in short term treasuries and a pile into bets. The

103
00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,280
Speaker 3: Federal raise interest rates as soon as next month. JP

104
00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:15,680
Speaker 3: Morgan Asset Management Fixed Income CIO Bob Michael says it

105
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:16,760
Speaker 3: was a hawkish tilt.

106
00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,760
Speaker 11: It is a hawkish tilt from the committee. Half of

107
00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:24,160
Speaker 11: the committee is expecting rate hikes this year, which is

108
00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,760
Speaker 11: I think a real shot across the bow to the market.

109
00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,880
Speaker 11: We were thinking two, maybe three to be decorative. We

110
00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:36,240
Speaker 11: didn't think half the committee, so you know, it's something

111
00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:37,040
Speaker 11: quite different.

112
00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,359
Speaker 3: And JP Morgan's Bob Michael says a rate hike this

113
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:44,560
Speaker 3: year is certainly possible, giving inflationary pressures from AI spending

114
00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:45,440
Speaker 3: in the Iran War.

115
00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:49,360
Speaker 4: Let's take a look quickly at SpaceX shares Karen. They

116
00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:53,040
Speaker 4: declined for the first time since their record IPO, shedding

117
00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,919
Speaker 4: five percent at the end of a volatile session that

118
00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,680
Speaker 4: saw Elon Musk's Rocket AI company initially gain six percent

119
00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,640
Speaker 4: before or going in reverse. Still, the shares are more

120
00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,480
Speaker 4: than forty percent above their IPO price. The low float

121
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,880
Speaker 4: amplifies the impact of retail buying in the pre market.

122
00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,520
Speaker 4: SpaceX shares recovering a bit. They're up about one percent.

123
00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,120
Speaker 3: Well, we turned from a Wall Street Nathan too the

124
00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,120
Speaker 3: Canyon of Heroes. Later this morning, New York City will

125
00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:19,920
Speaker 3: pay tribute to the NBA champion Nicks with a ticker

126
00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,800
Speaker 3: tape parade up Broadway. Bloomberge. Lisa Mateo will be there,

127
00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:24,960
Speaker 3: and how's this review?

128
00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,640
Speaker 12: The festivities are expected to begin around ten am Eastern

129
00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,800
Speaker 12: near Battery Park. The team will then travel north along

130
00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,440
Speaker 12: Broadway through the Canyon of Heroes, concluding at Broadway and

131
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,960
Speaker 12: Chamber Street next to City Hall, where Mayor zoram Mumdani

132
00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:40,120
Speaker 12: will present the team with.

133
00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 2: Keys to the city.

134
00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:44,159
Speaker 12: Officials say there will be more than ten thousand members

135
00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,480
Speaker 12: of the NYPD assigned to the parade. Twenty five hundred

136
00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,520
Speaker 12: pounds of shredded paper confetti were delivered to twenty two

137
00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,440
Speaker 12: buildings along the route, while other New York sports teams

138
00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:57,000
Speaker 12: like the Yankees, Giants, Rangers, and Liberty have all received

139
00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,680
Speaker 12: the honor. This will be the first ticker tape parade

140
00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:08,320
Speaker 12: for the h Nicks. Lisa Matteo Bloomberg Radio.

141
00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:07,719
Speaker 3: Time Now for look at some of the other storage

142
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,960
Speaker 3: making news in New York and around the world, and

143
00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,080
Speaker 3: for that we're joined by Bloomberg, John Tucker, John, good morning.

144
00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,440
Speaker 13: And good morning, Karen Well for the parade. Some fans

145
00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:19,840
Speaker 13: are paying professional line sitters hundreds of dollars to guarantee

146
00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,400
Speaker 13: a front row seat. Let's find out more from Bloomberg's

147
00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:23,160
Speaker 13: Charlie Pellett.

148
00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,920
Speaker 14: Air Tasker, which is a mobile marketplace for Odd Jobs

149
00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,960
Speaker 14: and Local Services says it has received more than thirty

150
00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:34,559
Speaker 14: five requests for Knick's parade line sitters, some offers reaching

151
00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:38,280
Speaker 14: as high as nine hundred and fifty dollars. And Robert Samuels,

152
00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,880
Speaker 14: the founder of the professional line sitting service Same Old

153
00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,200
Speaker 14: Line Dudes, says he's charging twenty five dollars an hour

154
00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,760
Speaker 14: plus a twenty five dollars overnight fee to hold spots

155
00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:52,000
Speaker 14: along the parade route, costing around three hundred and thirty

156
00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:55,960
Speaker 14: dollars total. In New York, Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.

157
00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,520
Speaker 13: Tragedy and Central Powering capter. An eighteen year old tourists

158
00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 13: killed Andrew Folloath of ho drawn carriage while on vacation

159
00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,480
Speaker 13: with his family. Video shows the moments when the horse

160
00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,440
Speaker 13: took off near Tavern on the Green yesterday afternoon. There

161
00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:08,760
Speaker 13: were plenty of witnesses.

162
00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:14,200
Speaker 10: I saw the horse stumble and his friend was right

163
00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 10: next door to him, and then he just collided and

164
00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:17,640
Speaker 10: it turned into a mess.

165
00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,000
Speaker 13: But the horse got spooked by something and ran off

166
00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,280
Speaker 13: of the carriage drivers taking a picture of the family.

167
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 13: Convicted Gilgo Beach serial killer Rex Huerman was sentenced to

168
00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,920
Speaker 13: life with the murders of seven women over seventeen years.

169
00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:33,560
Speaker 13: The judge at one point address humor men in court, Are.

170
00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,240
Speaker 15: You a little bit sorry for what you did to

171
00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:39,559
Speaker 15: these poor innocent women, eight women that you strangled to death, at.

172
00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,840
Speaker 2: Least eight that we know of. Are you at least

173
00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:42,880
Speaker 2: a little bit sorry for that?

174
00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,920
Speaker 13: Yes, yes, I a prosecutor say there is one additional victim.

175
00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:51,240
Speaker 13: They're still working to identify Global News twenty four hours

176
00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,400
Speaker 13: a day, whenever you wanted with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm

177
00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,600
Speaker 13: John Tucker and this is Bloomberg Karen.

178
00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:57,080
Speaker 2: Thanks Jean.

179
00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,840
Speaker 3: Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that

180
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:01,520
Speaker 3: we bring in John stash Hour.

181
00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,680
Speaker 16: Thanks Garon Big Day in New York, the parade to

182
00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,760
Speaker 16: the NBA champion Knicks begins at ten o'clock. They go

183
00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,920
Speaker 16: from Battery Park down the Canyon of Heroes to City

184
00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,160
Speaker 16: Hall while there'll be a ceremony and the US Open

185
00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,880
Speaker 16: Golf tees off today at Shinnecock Hills on Long Island.

186
00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,520
Speaker 16: Some big names like Rory McElroy and Scotti Scheffler with

187
00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,120
Speaker 16: early morning tea times. Winners at the World Cup England,

188
00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:26,800
Speaker 16: Ghana and Columbia, Portugal and Congo finish to the tie.

189
00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,680
Speaker 16: Everyone has now played once. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update.

190
00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:31,960
Speaker 2: Stay with us.

191
00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:34,839
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg day Break coming up after this.

192
00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:43,240
Speaker 1: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

193
00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,200
Speaker 1: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

194
00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

195
00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,360
Speaker 2: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. The deal is signed.

196
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,560
Speaker 4: An interim agreement to end the war with Irn and

197
00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,040
Speaker 4: reopen the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect, with

198
00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,559
Speaker 4: President Trump putting pen to paper in Versailles last night.

199
00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 4: He says getting the agreement done will be vital for

200
00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:04,840
Speaker 4: the US economy.

201
00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:10,040
Speaker 6: Rather than possibly going into a depression, rather than having

202
00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:14,360
Speaker 6: your favorite president b Herbert Hoover, I was always the

203
00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,160
Speaker 6: one I didn't want to be.

204
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,560
Speaker 4: That was President Trump discussing the agreement at the g

205
00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,560
Speaker 4: seventh summit in France. Joining us for a reaction this

206
00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,319
Speaker 4: morning is Terry Haines, the founder of Pangaea Policy, and

207
00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,320
Speaker 4: I can tell you the market reaction is certainly positive, Terry,

208
00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,640
Speaker 4: with NASDAC futures leading the gains this morning. Crude oil

209
00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,880
Speaker 4: continuing to sink is what's good for the market, good

210
00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:35,520
Speaker 4: for the world.

211
00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,320
Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning, Jathan.

212
00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:43,040
Speaker 15: In the very short term, it is, of course, But

213
00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:44,520
Speaker 15: the proof's going to be in the pudding, and the

214
00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:48,400
Speaker 15: pudding is whether the Straight reopens or not. And we're

215
00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,920
Speaker 15: certainly going to know that soon enough either the either

216
00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,920
Speaker 15: the Iranians are going to make good on their initial

217
00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,240
Speaker 15: promise to reopen the Straight or they're not. And from

218
00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,719
Speaker 15: there we're going to figure out whether or whether or

219
00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:07,040
Speaker 15: not this memorandum of understanding has potential to lead to

220
00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:10,360
Speaker 15: something even more binding and comprehensive or not.

221
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,360
Speaker 4: There's still some questions about the Strait itself, aren't there?

222
00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,960
Speaker 4: About whether there's going to be a mechanism in place

223
00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:21,920
Speaker 4: for Iran and alman to maintain some level of control

224
00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,840
Speaker 4: over the Strait of Hormuz. Could this leave us in

225
00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,440
Speaker 4: a different position in the Strait than we were before

226
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:28,800
Speaker 4: the war.

227
00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:34,080
Speaker 15: Well, there's some potential of that, sure, and you accurately

228
00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:39,400
Speaker 15: described the situation. I would add one other factor in

229
00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:45,480
Speaker 15: that situation, which is that all the nations on the

230
00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:53,040
Speaker 15: west side of the Strait, Saudi Bahrain, Uae, etc. Are

231
00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:59,520
Speaker 15: very much interested in invested in maintaining the preconflict status quo.

232
00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,760
Speaker 15: So that gets resolved in the past sixty days, That

233
00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:07,680
Speaker 15: gets resolved in negotiations. But I imagine that there's going to

234
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,679
Speaker 15: be a lot of weight and a lot of pressure

235
00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:14,440
Speaker 15: placed on around to make sure that the strait remains open.

236
00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:18,360
Speaker 15: Let's remember here that the one of the major incentives

237
00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:22,160
Speaker 15: in this deal for around is having the you know,

238
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:26,480
Speaker 15: the Gulf States, which Trump last year called the major

239
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:30,840
Speaker 15: non native allies of the United States, you know, invest

240
00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,920
Speaker 15: in Iran in order to not just rebuild it, but

241
00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:35,880
Speaker 15: frankly kind of keep it on side.

242
00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:40,160
Speaker 4: Of course, there's a debate already building in Washington about

243
00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:46,320
Speaker 4: what comes after this interim agreement. The President suggested that

244
00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,199
Speaker 4: maybe the nuclear file isn't as important as it might

245
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,920
Speaker 4: have been in the past, talking about access to Iran's

246
00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,400
Speaker 4: frozen funds as well as whether it has the right

247
00:12:56,480 --> 00:13:01,640
Speaker 4: to develop ballistic missiles. Is the US potentially conceding too

248
00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:03,760
Speaker 4: much following the interim agreement?

249
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:05,199
Speaker 3: Uh?

250
00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:09,640
Speaker 15: The you know, the I understand the the kerfuffle about

251
00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:13,920
Speaker 15: ballistic missiles. But at the same time, uh, there has

252
00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:20,120
Speaker 15: never been a situation of denying uh Iran conventional means

253
00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:24,600
Speaker 15: to defend itself. Uh So, you know, you have that. Uh,

254
00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,080
Speaker 15: and I imagine all that I imagine today. My instinct is

255
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,679
Speaker 15: that gets clarified. Uh, there is a potential giving them

256
00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:35,160
Speaker 15: too much short but again, Uh, you know, one thing

257
00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,400
Speaker 15: I would mention, mention to folks and point out is

258
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,720
Speaker 15: that this is not a deal just between the United

259
00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,280
Speaker 15: States and Iran. This is a construct I've been calling

260
00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:47,440
Speaker 15: the four legged stool where the Gulf States and China

261
00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,760
Speaker 15: have been important and even essential to making this sort

262
00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:51,280
Speaker 15: of a deal.

263
00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:51,839
Speaker 3: Uh.

264
00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:56,280
Speaker 15: Their interests all push in the direction of not wanting

265
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,800
Speaker 15: Iran to be unfettered. So uh, you know, the directional

266
00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:03,360
Speaker 15: area today I think is a tentative at tentatively in

267
00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:03,920
Speaker 15: that direction.

268
00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:05,800
Speaker 2: Got about a minute left here.

269
00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,360
Speaker 4: But on top of all this, Defense Secretary hag Seth

270
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,600
Speaker 4: just announced a six month review of the US military

271
00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:16,320
Speaker 4: posture and basing in Europe. Where does the US NATO

272
00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,839
Speaker 4: relationship stand now, Terry.

273
00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,120
Speaker 15: I've always been non consensus on the POD none because

274
00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:27,360
Speaker 15: as a positive on the US NATO relationship, the you know,

275
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:31,320
Speaker 15: the United States has been the blustering, controlling for a decade.

276
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:37,160
Speaker 15: For that, the Europeans should make good on their defense

277
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:42,080
Speaker 15: budget promises to NATO. Some of them have after a decade,

278
00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,720
Speaker 15: some of them still haven't as we well known for

279
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 15: well known for the UK, the NATO Alliance remains strong

280
00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,360
Speaker 15: and the other But I would point out forced posture

281
00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:56,400
Speaker 15: means where it also means where those troops should be placed,

282
00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,280
Speaker 15: and we've moved troops out of Germany but into Poland,

283
00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:05,200
Speaker 15: which you that preliminary force posture tends to be a

284
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,600
Speaker 15: little bit more aggressive than detractors suggest that it is.

285
00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,120
Speaker 4: Thank you for this, Terry is always good to get

286
00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:15,040
Speaker 4: your thoughts this morning after a number of major developments geopolitically.

287
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 4: That's Terry Haynes, the founder of Pangaea Policy.

288
00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,360
Speaker 3: Karen nathan Less repeat some of our top stories. Some

289
00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 3: morning gas prizes of dip below four dollars a gallon

290
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,520
Speaker 3: for the first time since March after the US and

291
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 3: AROUND sign their interim deal. Triple A's nationwide average for

292
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,800
Speaker 3: regular unlighted is now three point ninety nine point nine.

293
00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 4: SpaceX shares closed lower for the first time since their IPO,

294
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,160
Speaker 4: snapping in near fifty percent rally. They fell about five

295
00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:44,160
Speaker 4: percent yesterday, sending them back below Amazon's market value.

296
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,120
Speaker 3: And the New York Knicks victory parade. Kicks off at

297
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,560
Speaker 3: ten am from Bowling Green to City Hall. Some fans

298
00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,720
Speaker 3: have been paying as much as nine hundred and fifty

299
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,920
Speaker 3: dollars to hold their spot along the free parade route.

300
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 4: We have more in those stories coming up on Bloomberg

301
00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:58,640
Speaker 4: dam Break and it.

302
00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,440
Speaker 3: Is five eighteen on Wall Street. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin

303
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,600
Speaker 3: Worsh put his stamp on the US Central Bank yesterday

304
00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:06,800
Speaker 3: with a bevy of changes coming out of his first

305
00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,800
Speaker 3: policy meeting and a news conference that made clear the

306
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,640
Speaker 3: Central Bank will not tolerate high inflation. We want to

307
00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,960
Speaker 3: get more now with Claudia'salm, chief Economist and New Century

308
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 3: Advisors Claudia, Good.

309
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:20,440
Speaker 2: Morning, Good Laudia.

310
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,360
Speaker 3: Let's begin with your overall takeaway from Kevin Worsh's first

311
00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,000
Speaker 3: meeting is FED chair, what did you make of it?

312
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:29,000
Speaker 5: So?

313
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 17: It was it was different. There were, you know, certainly

314
00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 17: several changes of foot on. It was a bit low

315
00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,000
Speaker 17: substance in terms of I mean, very affirming in the

316
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,920
Speaker 17: statement this committee will deliver price stability. That is a

317
00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:46,800
Speaker 17: message everybody wants to hear. That's a reality everybody wants

318
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 17: to see. But we didn't get a lot of information

319
00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 17: on Well, how how do you expect to do that now.

320
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,680
Speaker 17: I know it's the first you know, his first press conference,

321
00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,680
Speaker 17: first FED meeting as the chair, and so you know,

322
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 17: we should measure our expectations. But it was there was

323
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 17: a lot to process. There's a lot of moving pieces

324
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 17: here in terms of kind of changing the leadership and

325
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,520
Speaker 17: not you know, we'll see how they deliver.

326
00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,200
Speaker 3: Okay, you didn't say much about how it will happen,

327
00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,600
Speaker 3: but he did promise a lot of task forces. He's

328
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:17,560
Speaker 3: going to look at a lot of practices that the

329
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 3: FED uses. He's going to take a look at the

330
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,720
Speaker 3: balance sheet, so there might be changes in more information

331
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:25,200
Speaker 3: maybe later in the year.

332
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 17: That's true, and I do welcome the idea of how

333
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,680
Speaker 17: it sounded like the task forces that Kevin Worsh's assembling

334
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 17: will have outside perspectives. So it's not just going to

335
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 17: be inside FED officials FED staff. That will include some

336
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,520
Speaker 17: FED staff, he said, you know, so it's good to

337
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,160
Speaker 17: bring in outside perspectives. It was wide ranging. Five task force.

338
00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,560
Speaker 17: I mean, this is a big lift. What I found,

339
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,920
Speaker 17: maybe a little puzzling, was oh, well, their work will

340
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:53,360
Speaker 17: be done by December, and I mean these are big questions,

341
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 17: like first principles what causes inflation and the flat Like

342
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 17: these are really deep questions that each of the five

343
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,920
Speaker 17: task force are asking, but they're on a really short timeline.

344
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,159
Speaker 17: So then it makes you wonder exactly what's going to

345
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 17: come out of this, and also are any of those

346
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:11,040
Speaker 17: five task force going to unlock the path to price stability?

347
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 17: It really isn't clear. Well, we'll get out of that,

348
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 17: but I think long term it's beneficial to have outside

349
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:17,239
Speaker 17: perspectives coming way in.

350
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,159
Speaker 3: Now, what about the question of FED independence? Did you

351
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 3: make anything from the fact that hey, he didn't count

352
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:30,720
Speaker 3: how to any of President Trump's demands to immediately cut

353
00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 3: interest rates? Does that mean we might see a more

354
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,280
Speaker 3: independent FED than some had feared?

355
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 17: This felt more like a FED focused on monetary policy day.

356
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,400
Speaker 17: It I think there really was a shift that while

357
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,679
Speaker 17: there were big differences from say any of recent FED chairs,

358
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,879
Speaker 17: it did feel more like a focus on monetary policy.

359
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 17: It didn't feel like, you know, the audience was the

360
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,639
Speaker 17: president of the day, as it maybe did still at

361
00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 17: the hearing, because confirmation hearing, So I think that that's

362
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 17: a positive. So, you know, and there was a signal

363
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 17: maybe not from Kevin Warsh, he didn't participate in the

364
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 17: Summary of Economic Projections, but there was definitely a signal

365
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,439
Speaker 17: from many of the committee members that it could be

366
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 17: appropriate to raise raids this year, which is very much

367
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,480
Speaker 17: at odds with what the White House would like to

368
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 17: see from the Fed.

369
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, he didn't participate in the dot plot, but that

370
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:21,880
Speaker 3: was to be expected, really, wasn't it.

371
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 17: It wasn't surprising, but I think it still was disappointing

372
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,199
Speaker 17: because the Summary of Economic Projections they're not perfect and

373
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,439
Speaker 17: they're often misunderstood, but they are actually an exercise in

374
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 17: answering that question of well, how do you plan to

375
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,320
Speaker 17: deliver price stability?

376
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 14: Right?

377
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,680
Speaker 17: Because those forecasts, that dot plot, it's actually not just forecast,

378
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 17: it's what each official things would be appropriate, Like what's

379
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 17: it going to take to get to maximum employment and

380
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,120
Speaker 17: price stability at the end of the kind of projection

381
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 17: over the next few years. So you know that going

382
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 17: through that exercise of like what would it take, and

383
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 17: you had half the committee saying it's probably going to

384
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,919
Speaker 17: take some raid hikes. Another half of the committee said no,

385
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,120
Speaker 17: we can hold, or maybe one person said we could cut.

386
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 17: So I think that going through that exercise of like

387
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 17: how might we deliver given what we know now, price

388
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 17: stability is a useful exercise. So I think it's unfortunate

389
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 17: that Worsh didn't participate in it, and he did kind

390
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 17: of undercut it in the press conference. But you know,

391
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 17: maybe they'll find a better tool for having that kind

392
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,640
Speaker 17: of discussion and then presenting it to the public.

393
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 3: Were you able to take enough away to make any

394
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,879
Speaker 3: kind of indication of what the FED might do going forward,

395
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 3: at least in the short term.

396
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 17: So I think it's important. I have very little feel

397
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,680
Speaker 17: for what Kevin Worsh would like to see in terms

398
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 17: of policy. I think he's playing it really close to

399
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 17: the vest. But I do think that there's to take

400
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 17: very seriously a shift on the committee, a willingness to

401
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,719
Speaker 17: raise interest rates. And it's notable because in the statement

402
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,879
Speaker 17: they also pointed at the fact that a lot of

403
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 17: this inflation is supply driven. Typically, traditionally the FED looks

404
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,840
Speaker 17: through supply driven inflation, and this Fed there's many people

405
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 17: saying enough is enough. Nonetheless, we should be raising rates.

406
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 17: So I think I think the kind of market reaction to

407
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 17: this that this is a fad that really could be

408
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 17: moving on rates sometime this year. I think that's an

409
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 17: accurate reflection where the committee is.

410
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories

411
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 3: making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

412
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 4: Look for us on your podcast feed by six am

413
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 4: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

414
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning starting at five

415
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 3: am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero

416
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,120
Speaker 3: in New York, Bloomberg in ninety nine to one in Washington,

417
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 3: Bloomberg ninety two to nine in Boston, and nationwide on

418
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,880
Speaker 3: serious XM Channel one twenty one.

419
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 4: Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app

420
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,880
Speaker 4: now with Applecarplay and Android Atuto interfaces.

421
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,120
Speaker 3: And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's

422
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 3: the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes

423
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 3: or less. Search Bloomberg News Now and your favorite podcast

424
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 3: platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow.

425
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 2: And I'm Nathan Hager.

426
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 4: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

427
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 4: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg.

428
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 8: Dave Bray