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Speaker 1: Show. We've heard Vladimir Putin speak pretty much every day.

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Speaker 1: There was very little except we are going to continue.

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Speaker 1: We will win. Russia will win in this war. It's

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Speaker 1: a just fight for Russia. Very little on how exactly

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Speaker 1: he plans to make a lot of headway, except for

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Speaker 1: sending more people there to the front line, which right now,

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Speaker 1: at least for the time being, doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 1: having the desired effect for the Russians. Yeah, I'd say not.

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Speaker 1: We're at the one year mark. It was a year

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Speaker 1: ago today that the bombs started falling on Kiev, and

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Speaker 1: at that time we were being told by our own

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Speaker 1: government that they expected Kiev could could fall in ninety

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Speaker 1: six hours. As far as that recent offensive from the Russians,

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Speaker 1: I've heard several people. I saw h R. McMaster A

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Speaker 1: number of people say it's on. It started. I saw

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Speaker 1: a Ukrainian officer of some rank say the other day, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it started, but you can barely tell. So if this

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Speaker 1: actually is the big Russian offensive, it ain't leaving much

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Speaker 1: of a mark. Well, perhaps it is, we'll see Doctor

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Speaker 1: Jeff McCaslin joins us Jeff as a CBS News a

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Speaker 1: military consultant, founder and CEO of Diamond six Leadership and

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Speaker 1: Strategy LLLC, and a Senior Fellow at the Stockdale Center

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Speaker 1: for Ethical Leadership at the Naval Academy. Jeff, how are you, sir?

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Speaker 1: Very well, it's great to be with you guys. You bet,

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Speaker 1: thank you so a year ago today, what did you

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Speaker 1: think was going to happen? And how do you feel

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Speaker 1: about you know that looking back over the last year, Well,

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Speaker 1: I feel a good kind of company is a so

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Speaker 1: called military analysts, because every analysts that I knew expected

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Speaker 1: just what you suggested a few moments ago that Kiev

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Speaker 1: would follow within a few hours. We know Russian officers,

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Speaker 1: by the way, we're told to pack their dress uniforms

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Speaker 1: because they were going to need him for the big

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Speaker 1: victory parade and celebration that was going to happen in

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Speaker 1: Kiev in just a couple of hours. And I believe

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Speaker 1: that was an assumption that Vladimir Prutin made that the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainians wouldn't fight, this would be over very quickly. Obviously

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Speaker 1: that has not happened, and Kranians have been inspired. I

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Speaker 1: remember as well the words of Ladi of Vladimir's Lensky

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Speaker 1: early on on this conflict when we asked him to

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Speaker 1: evacuate and we will to set up a government in

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Speaker 1: exile outside of Ukraine, and this young former comedian said,

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Speaker 1: I don't need a ride, I need more ammunition. And

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Speaker 1: that seemed to me to be almost a turning point

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Speaker 1: and attitude which has colored the Ukrainian response and the course. Secondarily,

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Speaker 1: I think if you look back on this, we should

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Speaker 1: reflect on the fact that Putin assumed that the Western

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Speaker 1: Alliance would be disunited. He had seen what had happened

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Speaker 1: with Afghanistan, he had seen the United States polarized and

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Speaker 1: focused on the Pacific, and he thought there would not

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Speaker 1: be a concerted response by the West. Well, that has

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Speaker 1: proven untrue as well. In the last few days we

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Speaker 1: saw the President United States, for the first time, perhaps

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Speaker 1: in our history, go into a combat zone without US

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Speaker 1: air cover and also give a speech in Poland in

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Speaker 1: which he complimented isn't allies for their unity and said

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Speaker 1: we were there to support Ukraine as long as it takes.

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Speaker 1: So in your opinion, where does the conflict stand now

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Speaker 1: and where is it likely to go in the next

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Speaker 1: say six months. Well, as you suggest, again, it seems

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Speaker 1: to be at the moment somewhat frozen. The Russian offensive

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Speaker 1: I think is ongoing. I talk to people in Kiev

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Speaker 1: just the other day. We see large scale Russian ground

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Speaker 1: infantry attacks, particularly in the area around Bockmoot and Buladhar

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Speaker 1: and Kremina down in the Donbass region as they try

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Speaker 1: to envelop that particular area. But it is just that

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Speaker 1: largely pretty poorly coordinated, large scale entry attacks, not supported

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Speaker 1: by armor into an enormous degree, nor by real heavily

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Speaker 1: coordinated artillery fire, though there's a lot of artillery fire,

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Speaker 1: and this has been endemic in the Russians, their inability

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Speaker 1: to coordinate what we would call combined arms effectively, and

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Speaker 1: the fact that they've lost a significant amount of military

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Speaker 1: hardware and a lot of manpower and most a lot

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Speaker 1: of these young recruits that are now advancing might have

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Speaker 1: only had two or three weeks of training, and the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainians so far have been able to hold out. How

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Speaker 1: this will go next, Well, the Ukrainians have got their

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Speaker 1: primary professional forces held out of the fight right now,

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Speaker 1: and that's really been territorial forces for Ukraine in the

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Speaker 1: defense of buck Mut, So I know they're preparing for

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Speaker 1: a counter offensive. Would say expect will occur later in

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Speaker 1: the spring, perhaps after a lot of this promised military

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Speaker 1: hardware like tanks, Leopard three's m ones, Bradley's more artillery

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Speaker 1: and the like have arrived and it was see towards spring,

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Speaker 1: maybe that effort by them for a counteroffensive, which I

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Speaker 1: think we'll try to cut the land bridge connecting Russia

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Speaker 1: with Crimea, And if that occurs and it's successful, then

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Speaker 1: we might see some conditions whereby some kind of a

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Speaker 1: negotiation might in fact occur. So there's a piece in

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Speaker 1: the Washington Post today by a guy we like, Josh Rogan,

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Speaker 1: who's saying that the Biden philosophy is getting it all wrong.

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Speaker 1: The whole time is not on Russia's side. We will

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Speaker 1: stick with it as long as it takes No no,

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Speaker 1: no, no no, no way, we got it. We gotta help

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Speaker 1: them end it now because Ukraine is getting just decimated

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Speaker 1: as a country and Russia can keep it up until

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Speaker 1: they finally have to capitulate. So we shouldn't be looking

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Speaker 1: at it as a drawn out wear down Russia thing.

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Speaker 1: Russia wants to wear down Ukraine. How do you feel

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Speaker 1: about that? No, I think there's a lot of truth

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Speaker 1: in that. I mean, we've said many people has said

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration has been managing this war and not

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Speaker 1: trying to win the war. And I think the Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: that I speak with as well realize that time is

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Speaker 1: not on their side, not only in terms of military

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Speaker 1: manpower and material but but Western support. Let's be honest,

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Speaker 1: American support for this war has softened. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's dwindle. The pole as I read, suggests the majority

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Speaker 1: of the American population strongly supporting the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: But we do hear those voices, many even up on

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Speaker 1: Capitol Hill, some people even considering, I think, running for

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Speaker 1: president that says the United States should not be involved

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Speaker 1: in this particular conflict, and the Ukrainians take cognisis of that.

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Speaker 1: So time is not on Ukraine side. I think that's

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Speaker 1: one of the things mister Putin thinks he has. His

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Speaker 1: willpower is stronger and more enduring than ours is. Well,

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Speaker 1: we're going to ask a couple of people this question today,

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Speaker 1: so I want to hear your answer to how important

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Speaker 1: is this, how big a deal is it to the

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Speaker 1: United States? What's our national interest in Ukraine not being defeated? This,

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Speaker 1: I think is a major inflection point in the history

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Speaker 1: of our country's right. Frankly at this particular time. Were

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Speaker 1: mister Putin to be successful, what he will have done

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Speaker 1: is undermine the international norms that were established on the

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Speaker 1: Second World War and move us into an international system

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Speaker 1: which is guided by the law of the jungle. That

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Speaker 1: if you want to take at territory and you have

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Speaker 1: the military means to do that, then you should. You

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Speaker 1: should do that, no matter how many people die along

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Speaker 1: the way, and would undermine, to my mind, the values

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Speaker 1: that the United States has stood for ever since its creation. Freedom, justice,

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Speaker 1: the right of individuals to create their own democracy, the

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Speaker 1: rights of sovereignty. All those things would be undermine. And thirdly,

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Speaker 1: it would encourage every dictator around the world that can

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Speaker 1: be successful in doing that. We have aspirations for territory

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Speaker 1: and we should take those on. Let's be honest, there's

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Speaker 1: no doubt mister ji jing Ping is watching this war

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Speaker 1: very carefully. How does the West react? How does the

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Speaker 1: United States react? As he continues to describe Taiwan as

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Speaker 1: part of China and might someday decide to use military

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Speaker 1: forces to in fact secure that democratically elected government on

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Speaker 1: that island. Jeff mccauslan is on line CBS News military consultant, Jeff,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it's a lack of imagination on

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Speaker 1: my part or what, but I'm having a difficulty imagining

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Speaker 1: how this conflict ends and what that looks like, because

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Speaker 1: out and out capitulation by one side or the other

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Speaker 1: is not going to happen. No. I still think that

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Speaker 1: there's about four ways this could happen. One could be

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Speaker 1: it could go on for interminable period time. This could

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Speaker 1: be World War one, frankly, and we need to be

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Speaker 1: honest with that. Number Two, it could become sort of

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Speaker 1: a frozen conflict, whereby there is some kind of a negotiation,

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Speaker 1: but there's ongoing fighting, not unlike we had when this began,

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Speaker 1: because don't forget, if you're a Ukrainian this began in

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Speaker 1: twenty fourteen with the occupation of Crimea and a portion

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Speaker 1: of the hyndskin. Donetskn a frozen conflict that ensued one

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Speaker 1: side of the other could score a stunning victory. You

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Speaker 1: might see the Ukrainians collapse. Frankly, I think there's a

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Speaker 1: possible you might see the Russian military collapse, presenting a

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Speaker 1: fair company and then the last is some kind of

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Speaker 1: a change in leadership in Moscow, and that could go

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Speaker 1: either way. It could make things better in terms of

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Speaker 1: possibilities and negotiations, or it could make things actually worse.

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Speaker 1: But those are the only four ways that I see

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Speaker 1: this war coming to any kind of a conclusion. Wow,

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Speaker 1: Doctor Jeff McCaslin, CBS News Military consultant, it's always enlightening, Jeff,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for the time. Thanks guys, if you

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Speaker 1: listen to this show, you know I tend to agree

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Speaker 1: with his point of view on the importance of this. Also,

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Speaker 1: I think I agree with Josh Rogan's Washington Post piece

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Speaker 1: about this angle that Biden's going with of we're in

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Speaker 1: it for the long haul. No, no, long haul is

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Speaker 1: the way Russia wins, not the way Ukraine wins. I

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Speaker 1: think that's a really powerful point. That's good point. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're going to be talking to Josh in our four

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Speaker 1: of the show. If you don't get our four, you

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Speaker 1: got to go do something. Grab the podcast later Armstrong

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Speaker 1: and getting on demand. He's got some really good points

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Speaker 1: to make. M're going to talk to Mike Lyons later,

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Speaker 1: who I have a feeling, unless he's changed his mind,

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Speaker 1: is going to have a different opinion than you just heard.

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Speaker 1: So if you don't like that point of view, you

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Speaker 1: might like Mike Lein's point of view where he's he

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Speaker 1: has been saying, this is a regional conflict that is

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Speaker 1: not really our thing. Yeah, if you are unfamiliar with

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Speaker 1: the show, perhaps you're new to it, here's something crazy

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Speaker 1: we do. We listen to different opinions and kind of

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Speaker 1: let you decide on a lot of issues. So I

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Speaker 1: wonder what it's going to look like between now and

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Speaker 1: when the tanks that the West are providing to Ukraine

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Speaker 1: actually hit the scene in earnest. I understand they're a

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Speaker 1: handful of the German tanks that are that are in

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Speaker 1: country and they're training on him that sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: But what can Russia accomplish while those are coming online?

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Speaker 1: Because the Ussians have radio stations too, They know that

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians would love nothing better than to take some

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Speaker 1: Abrams tanks and the other heavy armaments and bust through

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Speaker 1: their lines and sever the connection to cremea like Jeff

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Speaker 1: was talking about in the south of the country, and

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Speaker 1: they want to make sure that doesn't happen. So can

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians hold out long enough if this is the

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Speaker 1: big Russian offensive and you can't even tell what's happening,

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Speaker 1: that's not what people were worried about a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. And is it because they're you know, completely untrained, unsupported, unfed,

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Speaker 1: unarmed prisoners or people drug off the street that are

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Speaker 1: fighting in the Russian military. Yeah, I don't have any idea.

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Speaker 1: It's all been so crazy and not impressive. It could be.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, I'm just popped into my head.

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Speaker 1: I'm reminded of way back during the Gulf War, where

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Speaker 1: the news media spent like forty eight hours on the

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Speaker 1: air saying, is this shock and all? Is this this

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Speaker 1: could be the getting of shock and awe? Is this

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Speaker 1: shock and awe? You know, every time light bulb would

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Speaker 1: would go out right, and they told us you'll know

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Speaker 1: it when you see it, and it was pretty clear

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Speaker 1: when it started. Yeah, And so you're you're suggesting that

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Speaker 1: maybe this isn't the beginning, and when Russia starts, you'll know, Oh,

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Speaker 1: this is the beginning. Yeah. I don't know that, but

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Speaker 1: it's entirely possible. So what's the name of that paramilitary group,

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Speaker 1: voby A's off Battalion. Oh, oh, the Wagner Group. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so that's like fifty five thousand people strong. They have

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Speaker 1: forty some thousand in Ukraine right now, and they're run

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Speaker 1: by Putin's chef because he was literally Putin chef, but

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Speaker 1: put together this group of many prisoners. Now, he's the

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Speaker 1: video that we played audio from. He was going around

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Speaker 1: to the prison saying, hey, you come fight, you can

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Speaker 1: fight the evil Nazis in Ukraine. In six months you'll

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Speaker 1: you'll get out and you don't have to go back

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Speaker 1: to prison. Now. If you get there and decide not

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Speaker 1: to fight, you will be shot and there. I watched

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Speaker 1: a long piece on this last night. It was really

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Speaker 1: interesting and showing Wagner group putting out videos of shooting

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Speaker 1: people who tried to desert or would not fight, including

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Speaker 1: one guy they bludgeon to death with a sledgehammer. So

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Speaker 1: that's how they keep you in line in the Wagner group, right,

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't know, I don't know. There's quite

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Speaker 1: a difference in motivation between people who are fighting because

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Speaker 1: of the fear of who's behind them and people who

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Speaker 1: are fighting saying, sawang Ukrainian soldier there the day, so

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Speaker 1: I'll fight him with my fist till I die if

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Speaker 1: I have to. That's a completely different thing. Yeah, yes

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Speaker 1: it is. God, it's horrible, Oh it is. It's just

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Speaker 1: it's horrible for so many people on so many levels.

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Speaker 1: They think four hundred and fifty thousand Russians have fled

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Speaker 1: the country, and like you said earlier, a lot of

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Speaker 1: those are the educated, got money, got talent, got skills

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Speaker 1: that have left. Yeah. Yeah, like so many other things,

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Speaker 1: I suspect the brain drain of Russian might be a

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Speaker 1: little bit exaggerated by people who are rooting for Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: But who knows. Hard to know, they don't have a

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Speaker 1: free press. There is the thing. Anyway, we'll talk to

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Speaker 1: some other smart people about this. We got other things

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Speaker 1: to discuss for you. Got some interesting texts about the

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Speaker 1: big trial. We were talking about the murder trial. Maybe

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Speaker 1: we'll get to those other things. Our text line is

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Speaker 1: four one five two nine five kftcar