Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Single best idea is
Speaker 1: six seven minutes. So we're trying to keep a short podcast.
Speaker 1: We know you listen to like two, three, four podcasts.
Speaker 1: You have to listen to David Gura and the Big Take,
Speaker 1: and what is there it's like twenty eight minutes or
Speaker 1: eighteen minutes or you know, it's like it's like a
Speaker 1: it's like it's like one of those old time movies
Speaker 1: with intermission. It's like The Godfather, you know, and you
Speaker 1: have to have an intermission. You have to have an
Speaker 1: intermission in the middle of the Big Take. It's so
Speaker 1: much ginormous. We're not doing that. We're doing a podcast
Speaker 1: six minutes. Quick thought. You move on within your day,
Speaker 1: and we thank you. Were thrilled it the way we're
Speaker 1: moving up the charts, particularly in business News. Really really
Speaker 1: appreciate all the initial interest, but what it's really about
Speaker 1: the guests today. To pick two guests, we could have
Speaker 1: done like six different single best ideas. Paul Donovin is
Speaker 1: visible out on LinkedIn. He is wonderful at ubs. He's
Speaker 1: acutely smart and always with a balanced look at probability
Speaker 1: and the view out there. Every once in a while,
Speaker 1: Donovan loses it. Here is Paul Donovin of UBS scathing
Speaker 1: un the Fed. Let's listen.
Speaker 2: The issue I think with Powell is, first we're getting
Speaker 2: very very superficial analysis. So Pale saying, you know, inflation
Speaker 2: is taking longer than expected to get to two percent.
Speaker 2: That's not really true. Owner's equivalent rent, an obscure price
Speaker 2: that no one actually pays, is taking longer than expected
Speaker 2: to get to two percent. Everything else is in distincreation territory.
Speaker 2: And the real problem I think with the Powell Fed
Speaker 2: generally is there's no philosophy there. There's no medium term
Speaker 2: framework in which policy is being done. So what we're
Speaker 2: getting is we're data dependent. Well, firstly that's backwards looking. Secondly,
Speaker 2: that's looking at unreliable real time data. We know data
Speaker 2: quality has deteriorated significantly in the last decade. I'm Pal saying, no,
Speaker 2: I'm just looking backwards. I'm not looking forwards. I'm not
Speaker 2: going to give you a framework in which to think
Speaker 2: about policy. That's why we've got, in my view, unnecessary
Speaker 2: volatility in the market.
Speaker 1: Paul Donovan and UBS, we want to touch on one
Speaker 1: thing there that I think is important and that's the
Speaker 1: British phrase. Medium term is a general rule in economics
Speaker 1: in America. There's short term and long term. That's codified
Speaker 1: within any textbook you want to look at. The British
Speaker 1: have a holdover from ages ago where they look at
Speaker 1: short term, medium term, and long term, and you'll get
Speaker 1: some real, real, close argued discussions of this. I had
Speaker 1: the clearest memory of a discussion with the Laureate of
Speaker 1: Columbia Edmund Phelps Ned Phelps on this where he just said, look,
Speaker 1: we're not going to do medium term time. I'm looking
Speaker 1: at short term, whether it's marshally and microeconomics or at
Speaker 1: something bigger, broader fed policy, the Taylor rule whatever. That's
Speaker 1: a huge divide in economics between Paul Donovan out of
Speaker 1: Oxford over in London looking at short term, medium term
Speaker 1: and long term versus anybody in America that's like medium term,
Speaker 1: come out, We're not going to do that. Someone who's
Speaker 1: not going to do that is ed Heeyman. What a
Speaker 1: joy to mister Hyman come in and visit with us
Speaker 1: today Inner Studios here at seven point thirty one Lexington
Speaker 1: ed Heeiman invented market economics, and I'm going to go
Speaker 1: back with a major shout out to ed Yard Denny
Speaker 1: and that CJ. Lawrence years ago pretty much invented chart
Speaker 1: paragraph chart. I'll give a shout out to Lockman, Oxyton
Speaker 1: and ECRI who was doing the same thing, very different economics.
Speaker 1: But what Edheiman did at CJ. Lawrence was not iconic
Speaker 1: at codified market economics. He still does that today in
Speaker 1: his research note this morning. Yes, there was discussion of
Speaker 1: the BAA spread and discussion of disinflation like we heard
Speaker 1: FED policy, like what Paul Donovan talked about, but there
Speaker 1: was also uncertainty of edheim and looking at the X
Speaker 1: number of recessions he's been through and saying, do I
Speaker 1: really know what's going on now?
Speaker 3: I'm really struggling with this. I don't think it's different
Speaker 3: this time. It's always different when you look back at it.
Speaker 3: I've been through seven recessions. Everyone has been associated with
Speaker 3: an inverted deal curve and there have been no fall signals,
Speaker 3: hands down credit spreads. When I do a lot of
Speaker 3: econometric work, they scream at you, and when they go down,
Speaker 3: it says things are pretty good, and when they go up,
Speaker 3: it says things are pretty bad. And right now, spreads
Speaker 3: are tightening up, they're coming down, and so at the
Speaker 3: moment it's beginning to be sprying here in the Tristate
Speaker 3: area and everything's looking pretty good.
Speaker 1: Ed Heimen there on credit spreads, one of the things
Speaker 1: we try to do is get away from the jargon.
Speaker 1: I fail at that to keep the interview going. And
Speaker 1: we're worried about Lisa Mantal getting enough time or Michael
Speaker 1: bar getting You know Michael Barr. You should see him
Speaker 1: if he loses thirty six thirty seconds of airtime total tantrum,
Speaker 1: I mean a complete cow. So you know we got
Speaker 1: to be careful about that. I'm kidding, Eric, I'm kidding.
Speaker 1: But you know the idea here is we can't always
Speaker 1: translate the jargon. What's a spread? A spread is the
Speaker 1: relationship of a corporate bond to a full faith in
Speaker 1: credit government bond, something you can trust, like a treasury
Speaker 1: The ten year treasury note is just one example. So
Speaker 1: think of it in yield. When the yield comes down,
Speaker 1: the price goes up in the yield comes down on
Speaker 1: a corporate bond more than the government. Dynamic spreads narrow
Speaker 1: the yield of a Colgate Palmala bond comes down closer
Speaker 1: to the full faith in credit that spreads narrowing. I
Speaker 1: hope that was somewhat clear. Was that even close? Eric?
Speaker 1: I went down in flames? There didn't I got C minus. Anyways,
Speaker 1: ed Heiman and Paul Donovan single best idea today. We're
Speaker 1: out on Apple car Plight. Thank you so much for that.
Speaker 1: Just amazed at YouTube. Just I don't know where this
Speaker 1: YouTube thing's going, but we're building it out. Each and
Speaker 1: every day you go to YouTube, you search Bloomberg Podcasts.
Speaker 1: I'm shocked at how many people are watching this at home.
Speaker 1: They're not on their cell phones. They're like watching YouTube
Speaker 1: at home, which is very very cool. And thank you
Speaker 1: to Apple and Apple Podcasts. This is single bets Idea
Speaker 2: Seven