1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 2: The letters, as we mentioned, are going out starting today. 7 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 2: We've got two of them. Having the White House promised 8 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 2: that at noon today letters would be going out to 9 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 2: our trading partners announcing new tariffs if deals were not 10 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 2: in place. We have Japan, we have South Korea, twenty 11 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: five percent tariffs on both. The President yesterday on his 12 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 2: way back into town, talked about how more it would 13 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 2: be going out imminently. 14 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: Listen sending letters out on Monday having to do with 15 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: the trade deals could. 16 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: Be twelve, maybe fifteen. Tumble'll go out on Twoday and 17 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 2: Wednesday and ill. And we've made deals also, so we're 18 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: going to have a combination of letters and some deals 19 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 2: have been made. I think we'll have most countries done 20 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 2: by July ninth. Yeah, either a letter or a deal. 21 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 3: So far, no deals announced today, but yes, two letters 22 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 3: have been received by the governments of Japan and South 23 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 3: Korea respectively, and posted on True Social So let's get 24 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 3: the latest now live from the White House, where we 25 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 3: find Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall. So, Tyler, Japan and 26 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 3: South Korea obviously a starting point today, but what else 27 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 3: could we see coming down the pipe? 28 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 4: Yeah, hey, Cayley, Well, President Trump has said then we 29 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 4: could expect twelve to fifteen countries to get these letters, 30 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 4: and we're sort of watching three different scenarios here that 31 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 4: could unfold over the next week. We could see some 32 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 4: framework agreements announced, similar to how we saw with Vietnam. 33 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 4: For example, President Trump announcing that twenty percent tariff, though 34 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 4: we should note that there were negotiators in Washington over 35 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 4: the weekend as they iron that out. We could see 36 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 4: some of these countries, instead of getting perhaps the letter, 37 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 4: they would be given a more tangible extension when it 38 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 4: comes to negotiating, since the White House would say that 39 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 4: they are negotiating in good faith and the last book. 40 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 4: It would be those countries that could see their tear 41 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 4: freates essentially dictated to them. Perhaps this would be those 42 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 4: smaller countries that are already facing that ten percent baseline 43 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 4: tariff from those Liberation Day levels and aren't really expecting 44 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 4: to see much movement going forward there. It is interesting though, 45 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 4: that the two countries that he prioritized to send these 46 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 4: letters to are actually two countries that the White House 47 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 4: has been prioritizing for talks. Japan and South Korea have 48 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 4: long been at the top of the list when it 49 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 4: comes to negotiations for multiple reasons, including that the administration 50 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 4: has said that they came early and often with concessions 51 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 4: to the table, but also because strategically they are geographically 52 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 4: close to China. So it's interesting to see here sort 53 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 4: of President Trump's frustration with these countries moving forward. Now, 54 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 4: we should note that twenty five percent terra if that's 55 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 4: one percentage point higher than what Japan was facing on 56 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 4: April second, but it is that's level that South Korea 57 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 4: was ultimately given. And just for final thoughts on these letters, one, 58 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 4: we should watch the transhipment of goods. This seems to 59 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 4: be a theme when it comes to the administration saying 60 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 4: that they will threaten higher tariffs for those. But then 61 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 4: second also the retaliation President Trump, Joe and Kelly writing 62 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 4: in these letters that if either of these countries retaliate, 63 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 4: he will just tack on their tariff on top of 64 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 4: that twenty five percent rate, which means that these levees 65 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 4: could keep going up. 66 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 2: Tyler, it gets to be difficult to understand, or, as 67 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis said earlier, that's because it 68 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 2: may not be understand a bull. Well, we're now looking 69 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 2: at a new deadline of August first. Howard Lutnik, who 70 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 2: was standing right next to Donald Trump when he made 71 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: those remarks that we just played on the tarmac from earlier, 72 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 2: confirmed that last night. So that is the new deadline. 73 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 4: That does appear to be that they are signaling that 74 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 4: while the letters are going out this week, the levees 75 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 4: aren't going to be enacted until August first, which would 76 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 4: give us about a three week extension for these countries 77 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 4: to make some of deal or face these tariff rates 78 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 4: that President Trump is outlining. But we should say President 79 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,839 Speaker 4: Trump and his letter didn't explicitly say that, but that's 80 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 4: sort of the indication that we've been getting from other 81 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 4: senior administration officials, including Howard Lutnik, as well as the 82 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 4: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen. Now one that we're watching incredibly closely, 83 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 4: of course, is the European Union, a country that at 84 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 4: first wasn't being prioritized with the toks, but really seems 85 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 4: to have this reversal in favor, with Ursula Vonderline holding 86 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:29,039 Speaker 4: a direct phone call with President Trump last night to 87 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 4: talk about perhaps a technical negotiation that we could see 88 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 4: moving forward here. So a lot to track, a lot 89 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,799 Speaker 4: of uncertainty, but one thing's for Shory, Joe and Keiley. 90 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 4: The administration wants to show some sort of forward progress. 91 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 4: It just seems that the situation is pretty fluid. 92 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 3: Well, Tyler, Another area in which the administration would like 93 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 3: to see forward progress is on a ceasefire agreement between 94 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 3: Israel and Hamas, something I assume is going to be 95 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 3: high on the agenda. As President Trump greeds to the 96 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 3: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House today 97 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 3: for the third time in six months, what should we 98 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 3: expect from this evening's visit? 99 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 4: Right exactly, Kyle, and I can tell you that security 100 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 4: is incredibly tight here at the White House. It's very 101 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 4: difficult to get in in anticipation of this visit. Now, 102 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 4: there's a few different things on the schedule, including that 103 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 4: they will have this bilateral meeting and then there will 104 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 4: be a state dinner later on tonight. Now, the White 105 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 4: House and President Trump in particular is pushing forward this 106 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 4: sixty day cease fire proposal, but it's meeting some resistance, 107 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 4: although Israel has come out saying that it would support 108 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 4: it and send mediators to Katar over the weekend for example. 109 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 4: So really they're trying to show some sort of forward 110 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 4: progress here when it comes to the negotiations. Perhaps we 111 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 4: could get some sort of headlines. We know that Israeli 112 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 4: Prime Minister isn't just meeting with President Trump. He also 113 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 4: has scheduled meetings with Steve Whitkoff of course, the Special Envoy, 114 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 4: as well as Secretary of State Mark Rubio later on 115 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 4: this afternoon. 116 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendell live at the White House 117 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 3: for US, where we'll be watching this evening's events and 118 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 3: of course continuing to watch True Social If the President 119 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 3: posts more letters that he's penned to various countries, thank 120 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 3: you so much. And obviously, while those matters do have 121 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 3: the President's attention today, it has the attention of financial 122 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 3: markets as well, Joe, as they try to figure out 123 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,919 Speaker 3: whether or not this is going to be another Taco situation. 124 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 3: If what was supposed to be a hard deadline of 125 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 3: July ninth is now in August first deadline, it's a 126 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 3: question of what is believable and what is not. 127 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 2: Well, we're taking him seriously, if not literally, I guess 128 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 2: in this case. To see the market sync to Low's 129 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 2: immediately after those letters went out, you tend to think 130 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 2: the market was hoping for news on a framework, not 131 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 2: unlike what we saw with the Vietnam last week. Even 132 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 2: in the absence of details, it was at least a 133 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 2: suggestion of progress. Now we're moving goldposts again. We've got 134 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 2: letters threatening new tariffs. This is not a great recipe 135 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 2: for stocks. 136 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, so we want to get into this further. As 137 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 3: we turned to Sarah Bianki, who of course was a 138 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 3: former deputy US Trade Representative during the Biden administration. She's 139 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 3: now senior managing Director and chief Strategist of International Political 140 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 3: Affairs and Public Policy at EVERCOREI, Sarah, welcome back to 141 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 3: Balance of Power. It's always great to have you on 142 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:07,720 Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV and radio. As we consider the shifting goalposts 143 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 3: here and the letters that Japan and South Korea have 144 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 3: just received, that suggests August first, they'll face of twenty 145 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 3: five percent tariff unless some kind of deal can be 146 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 3: reached by then. Do you think they see August first 147 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 3: as a hard deadline, knowing it initially was supposed to 148 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 3: be this Wednesday. What if it just keeps moving? What 149 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 3: incentive do they have to deal with this administration? 150 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 5: Well, I think what it's clear is that the administration 151 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 5: is trying to send a signal to the countries where 152 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 5: they don't believe that trade talks are going particularly well. Japan, 153 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 5: we got some indication last week from Trump has really 154 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 5: gotten sideways a bit, largely because they, like South Korea, 155 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 5: have their large percent of their import here to the 156 00:07:56,280 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 5: United States are actually in sectoral their steel, and the 157 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 5: administration has been really really slow to make any concessions 158 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 5: in that area. And I think particularly for those of 159 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 5: both those countries, it is very hard to take a 160 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 5: deal back to their people that doesn't have some relief 161 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 5: on autos and steel. So can they get that done 162 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 5: by August first? That's a tall order. But either way, 163 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 5: I think what the President is trying to signal is that, yeah, 164 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 5: these deals, some of them are going well, but some 165 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 5: are a little bit slower than we think and want, 166 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,679 Speaker 5: and we are looking for these countries to step up 167 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 5: their offers. 168 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 2: What's the message that we send every time we delay 169 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 2: the deadline. 170 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 5: Well, certainly the market has gotten a bit accustom to 171 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 5: the President coming in very, very tough on these deals 172 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 5: on top line and then extensions. But the reality is, 173 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 5: in this case, I expect that tariffs are actually going 174 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 5: to go up from here. We have more sectoral teriffs 175 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:15,199 Speaker 5: to come in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Some of these countries, 176 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 5: as we saw with Vietnam, are not going to land 177 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 5: to ten percent. So if we're on a weighted average 178 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 5: of around fifteen percent right now, the next era we 179 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:26,959 Speaker 5: think is up. 180 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 6: Now. 181 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 5: I don't believe that all of them these tariffs are 182 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,199 Speaker 5: going to go into place, and I certainly don't believe 183 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 5: Korea or Japan is long for this world at twenty 184 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 5: five percent, no matter what happens. But those who think 185 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 5: that this is all just a noise, I do think 186 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 5: should pay a bit more close attention, because again I 187 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 5: think we're going to have directionally a higher tariffs from 188 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 5: where we're at right now. 189 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 3: Well, and Sarah, to your point, the President has signaled 190 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 3: that even that twenty five percent rate could go higher 191 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 3: if either of these countries chooses to retaliate. He'll just 192 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 3: stack their retaliatory terror freight on top of the twenty 193 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 3: five percent. Do you expect that to be an adequate deterrent? 194 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 3: How do you expect Japan and South Korea to respond 195 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 3: to this? 196 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 2: Well? 197 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 5: I think that South Korea and Japan. First of all, 198 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 5: they're slightly differently positioned here. South Korea just elected a 199 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 5: new government, so they're really just trying to get their 200 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 5: arms around all of this. But let's look auto steel, semis, 201 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 5: these are really important issues in these countries. It's very 202 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 5: very hard for them to cut a deal that doesn't 203 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 5: provide some relief there. And so while I think they 204 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,719 Speaker 5: are taking it seriously, I think they're a little bit 205 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 5: stuck in terms of what they need, and so really 206 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 5: the reciprocal rate is not their biggest it's not their 207 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 5: most significant part of their trade. They're exports here to 208 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 5: the United States. So I think they're going to also 209 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 5: try to hold tough too and get everything they can 210 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 5: out of this. 211 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 2: Sarah, how much of this is a message to India? 212 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 2: Knowing that the White House has really talked about these 213 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 2: three countries South Korea, Japan, and India as the most 214 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,319 Speaker 2: likely to announce deals. We've been hearing this for weeks. 215 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,599 Speaker 2: Today we get letters on South Korea and Japan. Is 216 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 2: this a message to anyone in particular, I. 217 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 5: Don't think so. I think it's really a message to 218 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 5: those two countries that the Trump administration is not satisfied 219 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 5: where they are in this negotiating cycle. I think they're 220 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,960 Speaker 5: actually much closer to India now. Some of these countries, 221 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 5: we talked to lots of them, the leaders and companies. 222 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,680 Speaker 5: They are a bit frustrated. One of the reasons it's 223 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 5: easier for India to get a deal is they have 224 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 5: very very high teriffs in the United States, so it's 225 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 5: a little bit easier for India to give So I 226 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 5: actually think it's a good sign for India. But look, 227 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 5: we've always said these trade deals are really hard. They're 228 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 5: you know, these the irritants and trade relationships. Whether it's 229 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 5: an ally or not, there there for a reason. These 230 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 5: are hard issues. So I think the reality is is 231 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 5: cutting this many deals this fast is just challenging. It's 232 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 5: why even with Vietnam, who was very anxious to cut 233 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 5: a deal, we've still seen very very few details about 234 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 5: precisely really what it looks like. 235 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 3: Well, Sarah, this brings me to the president's warning to 236 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 3: the bricks countries that he issued overnight, suggesting that any 237 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 3: country aligning themselves with the anti American policies of bricks 238 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 3: will be charged an additional ten percent tariff. We just 239 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 3: got the head of one of those countries, of President 240 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 3: Lula of Brazil saying bricks wasn't built to confront anyone, 241 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 3: as he speaks to reporters at the Brisk Bricks summit 242 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 3: currently underway in Rio. But do you have a sense 243 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 3: of what the president might mean when he says anti 244 00:12:57,520 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 3: American policies. 245 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, we saw a little bit from this from the 246 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 5: administration early on, where they came out talking about some 247 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 5: currency issues on the bricks. I think they're worried about 248 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 5: the trading block generally speaking, and getting some traction. So 249 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 5: this isn't the first time he's come out hard against them. 250 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 5: We'll see how lasting this policy is or exactly what 251 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 5: he's trying to drive here. It's not a major component 252 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 5: of his trade agenda. I would say, you know, we're 253 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,439 Speaker 5: a little I think a lot of these countries should 254 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 5: be again focused on what's coming on sectorals, whether it's 255 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 5: pharmasceuticals or semiconductors, and you know where they land on 256 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 5: these deals. I think what we're seeing today as a president, 257 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 5: he's feeling pretty good about of the world. Of the 258 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 5: markets have been pretty good. He's obviously had an impressive 259 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 5: legislative achievement, and some foreign post i'll see successes. So 260 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 5: I think he's trying to to kind of caffinate this 261 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 5: exercise which has languished a bit. These deals have been 262 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 5: hard to get. Uh, he's looking to get some progress. 263 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 2: When you consider the voices in President Trump's ears right now, 264 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 2: based on what you've seen in these letters and the 265 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 2: rhetoric over the past couple of days, is he listening 266 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 2: to Navarro and Ludnik or Scott Besson. 267 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 5: It's always very very hard to say precisely who. Certainly 268 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 5: Bessing was out over the weekend, Lutnik was around. You know, 269 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 5: at the end of the day, it's the USTR that 270 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 5: really has the technical skills to negotiate of this. I 271 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 5: think everybody's involved, but certainly somebody's got his attention. Who 272 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 5: believes he's got some bandwidth here to be a little 273 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 5: tough and to drive the deal he wants. Again, as 274 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 5: we've seen, these do not always uh, these do not 275 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 5: always hold. It's a long way. But now in August first, 276 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 5: and so I'm not ready to say that everybody's going 277 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 5: to get a high reciprocal a rate. I think Vietnam 278 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 5: did quite well for themselves. I think many other countries 279 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 5: will as well. 280 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 2: Sarah. It's great to have you back. Sarah Bianki with 281 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 2: us from Evercore Isi. I'm Joe Matthew, alongside Kaylee Lines 282 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 2: and Washington will assemble our political panel next. Rick Davis 283 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 2: and Genie Shanzano are on the way. Right here, only on. 284 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. 285 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's 286 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: durn on Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 287 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 288 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg. 289 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: Eleven thirty. 290 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 3: Countries receiving new tariff levels, or at least existing countries 291 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 3: that we already trade with getting levels of tariff set 292 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 3: we've already seen, of course, twenty five percent for Japan 293 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 3: in South Korea, and we're keeping an eye on what 294 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 3: may come next. As the President's has suggested at about 295 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 3: a dozen countries could ultimately be receiving letters today. But 296 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 3: the President also is focused on matters here at home, 297 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 3: including of course, deploying FEMA and declaring an emergency after 298 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 3: devastating flooding in Hill Country in Texas over the weekend 299 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 3: that is claimed at least eighty lives, many of them children, 300 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 3: as twenty seven campers and counselors have been confirmed dead 301 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 3: at Camp Mystic in Texas, just outside Kerrville. And this 302 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 3: is obviously a story that we're following closely here as 303 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 3: we consider also the emergency preparedness and emergency response. We 304 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 3: heard from the mayor of Kerville, Joe Herring, about the 305 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 3: tragedy over the weekend. 306 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 7: I need to tell my community and those families who 307 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 7: are waiting, this will be a rough week. Primary search continues. 308 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 7: Can we remain hopeful every foot, every mile, every bend 309 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 7: of the river. 310 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 2: Miss It in Kirk County says it is grieving the 311 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 2: loss now of twenty seven campers and counselors. Kaylee Caroline Levitt, 312 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 2: the Press secretary at the White House, just now updating 313 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 2: the death toll to ninety one, up from over eighty 314 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 2: the last time, we spoke with Julie Fine, who joins 315 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 2: US now our Texas Bureau chief with us live from 316 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:26,199 Speaker 2: Dallas with the latest on this. Having heard from this 317 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 2: briefing and now the White House, Julie, we also have 318 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 2: the threat of more bad weather. What are you hearing well? 319 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 8: First of all, we were told, and they have said 320 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 8: in news conferences that they did expect that number, sadly 321 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 8: to go higher. There were more than forty people still 322 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 8: unaccounted for. As of yesterday, there are still ten campers 323 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 8: unaccounted for and one counselor. The weather is getting slightly better. 324 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 8: I went through all the forecasts before I sat down here. 325 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 8: The weather's getting slightly better, but there's just so much 326 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 8: to deal with, and there's still a little bit of 327 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 8: rain in the forecast later in the week. That search 328 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 8: and recovery continues, volunteers from all over the nation. There 329 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 8: are federal and state resources as people continue the recovery effort. 330 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 8: A lot ahead here, including figuring out exactly the best 331 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 8: way to notify in the future. That will be a 332 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 8: big focus here. As the National Weather Service has gone 333 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 8: through the notifications went out, the question is did people 334 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 8: receive them. Obviously, in times like this, there is very 335 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 8: limited internet. You're in a camp. Campers do not have 336 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 8: their cell phones. They're going to have to figure out 337 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:40,640 Speaker 8: a much better system. Obviously, moving forward, Joe and Kayley. 338 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 3: Well and Julie. That's what Caroline Love at the White 339 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 3: House Press Secretary is now addressing. She's pushing back on 340 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:51,359 Speaker 3: what she describes as falsehood's around the National Weather Service, 341 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 3: which she describes as having had done its job, that 342 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 3: their offices in Austin, San Antonio conducted forecast briefings for 343 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 3: emergency management in the morning, issued floodwatches in the early afternoon, 344 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 3: executing timely forecast. Is there any evidence at this time, Julie, 345 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 3: that there was any staffing or other issues that could 346 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:13,239 Speaker 3: be potentially pinned on this administration in terms of the 347 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 3: ability of these agencies to respond to the unfolding disaster. 348 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 8: At this point, it does not appear that there is 349 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 8: anything specific. There have been a few people that have 350 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 8: left due to possibly taking early retirement, but the National 351 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 8: Weather Service has really pushed back on anything, saying the 352 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,879 Speaker 8: National Weather Service did its job. I do want to 353 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:39,239 Speaker 8: talk a little bit about here in Texas there is 354 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 8: some type of alert fatigue. I will tell you you 355 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,880 Speaker 8: can get an alert almost on the daily here because 356 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 8: of the weather, because of tornadoes. Also one thing to 357 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 8: note about the weather here, you can be expecting a 358 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 8: tornado and then all of a sudden it moves eighty miles. 359 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 8: All of this will will be certainly looked at. I 360 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 8: mean Senator Ted Cruz saying that today, local officials saying 361 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,680 Speaker 8: they have to go through everything to make sure this 362 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 8: doesn't happen again. There is a special session at the 363 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 8: end of the month at the Texas Legislature. It's not 364 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 8: on the agenda right now. I will not be surprised 365 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 8: if it's added and this comes up and they take 366 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 8: a good look at emergency management notification systems. 367 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 2: Great reporting, Julie, We appreciate it so much, Julie Fine, 368 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 2: as our Texas Bureau chief. As we keep it here 369 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 2: on the briefing here, we also should remind everyone that 370 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 2: Senator Chuck Schumer is getting involved here. The Democratic leader 371 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,400 Speaker 2: in the Senate, Killy is asking the Department of Commerce 372 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 2: is acting inspector General to look into this very idea 373 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 2: of staffing vacancies at the National Weather Service, but it 374 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 2: does appear, based on the briefing we heard earlier, that 375 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 2: the alerts, as you pointed out, were delivered. Whether you 376 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 2: see an alert at one o'clock or three o'clock in 377 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 2: the morning remains a very different question. Something we'll get 378 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 2: into here with our political panel, along with some other 379 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 2: topics that we're following today. Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano 380 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 2: and Rick Davis are with us Genie as senior Democracy 381 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 2: Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency 382 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,479 Speaker 2: in Congress, and of course Rick, our Republican strategist, a 383 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 2: partner at Stone Court Capital. What's Chuck Schumer up to here? Genie, 384 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,640 Speaker 2: We want to be careful with this story because there 385 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 2: is no evidence that staffing shortages led to this outcome. 386 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 9: That's right, you know, he is trying to uncover, rather investigate, 387 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 9: if any of that, any of the cuts that we've 388 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 9: seen to the Weather Service, whether during Biden's time quite frankly, 389 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 9: or during Trump's time, may have impacted what has happened 390 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 9: in Texas, and he is right to do that. Of course, 391 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 9: want to be very careful that you don't take resources 392 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 9: away from recovery and helping out victims in order to 393 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 9: do that, but it doesn't seem like that is happening. 394 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 9: The other thing that should be looked into, quite frankly, 395 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 9: and will certainly, is the impact of global warming on 396 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 9: all of this and the weather we are seeing around 397 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 9: the world and the country, which is acting what we're 398 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 9: seeing in places like Texas and quite frankly, everywhere we look. 399 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 9: And this is a Congress that should address that as 400 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 9: well well. 401 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,119 Speaker 3: We should also keep in mind that, in addition to 402 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 3: the actual cuts we have seen to Noah in the 403 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 3: National Weather Service, this is also a President Rick who 404 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 3: was called for getting rid of FEMA. He wants to 405 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 3: send essentially emergency response back to states individually, though FEMA 406 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 3: has been mobilized to respond to what just happened in Texas. 407 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 3: Do you expect the president to pivot on that effort. 408 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's fair to just give a bit 409 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 6: of a heartbeat to this issue before we've even really 410 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 6: gotten through the recovery and face. You know, there are 411 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 6: a lot of families that are wondering, you know, why 412 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 6: are we worrying about the weather when we have children 413 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 6: and other members of their family at risk? Look, there's 414 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 6: going to be a lot to talk about as a 415 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 6: results of these kinds of really horrific situations, whether it's 416 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 6: you know, are we a twenty first century country that 417 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 6: can't get our you know, sort of weather act together. 418 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 6: And there's a lot to that puzzle that maybe some 419 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 6: investment by the Piro government could do with. And on 420 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 6: top of that, some of these other issues on response 421 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 6: are always going to be a case, but we need 422 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 6: to let that response occur before we start, you know, 423 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 6: parsing what we're going to do about it in the future. 424 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 6: And so I just think with respect to the families 425 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 6: in Texas that are affected by this disaster, that you know, 426 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 6: you don't want to try to overpoliticize it, either on 427 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 6: the right or the left at this stage. 428 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 2: Well, I appreciate your sentiment there, Rick, I think we 429 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 2: all do here. We're still searching for the missing, and 430 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 2: I guess that's why I wonder if it was a 431 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 2: little early for the Democratic leader in the Senate to 432 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 2: be kicking out a letter on this. 433 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that there's plenty to do without having 434 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 6: to try and launch investigations and second guests, you know 435 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 6: why it happened. We're still dealing with what happened. And 436 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 6: until we get a handle on that and get ahead 437 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 6: of that curve and respectfully handle this from the family's 438 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 6: points of view, I think Congress would be better off, 439 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 6: you know, trying to get some of the nation's business 440 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 6: done before they have to tackle what's going on, you know, 441 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 6: in Texas today. It doesn't mean that it's not the 442 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 6: right thing to do, it's just probably, in my own view, 443 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 6: the wrong timing to do it. 444 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 3: Well, that's fair enough, And as we consider the spotlight 445 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,439 Speaker 3: that this could in the future put on efforts to 446 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 3: trim down these kinds of response agencies, Genie, that is 447 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,919 Speaker 3: of course going to put a fresh spotlight on the 448 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 3: work of the Department of Government Efficiency and on the 449 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 3: individual who up until recently was running it, Elon Musk. 450 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 3: I want to ask you separately, though, about an issue 451 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 3: pertaining to Elon Musk, which is that he announced over 452 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 3: the weekend that he's doing it making a new party, 453 00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:00,679 Speaker 3: the America Party, going to run against Republicans and Democrats. 454 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:01,159 Speaker 6: Genie. 455 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 3: What kind of disruptive force could that be as we 456 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 3: look ahead to twenty twenty six. 457 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 9: Yeah, Kaylee, I have to tell you I had like 458 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 9: ross Perrot vibes via the nineteen nineties, right, he announced 459 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 9: on Larry King, and you know this is an announcement 460 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 9: on X. As far as I can tell, Elon Musk 461 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 9: has not yet done any of the administrative things he 462 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 9: would have to do to get this party kicked off. 463 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 9: Surely he can do that. He's talking about twenty twenty six, 464 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,439 Speaker 9: interesting to me, not twenty twenty eight. Of course. You know, 465 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,119 Speaker 9: we've not really had third parties in this country that 466 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,639 Speaker 9: have succeeded, and the ones that have succeeded have had 467 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 9: a very famous person like Elon Musk or Ross Brow 468 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,480 Speaker 9: at the top. The difference is Elon Musk cannot run 469 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 9: for president constitutionally. He seems to acknowledge that with a 470 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 9: focus on twenty twenty six, and so that's what he 471 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 9: says he's going to do, is he's going to try 472 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 9: to create this party and impact the Congress. Of course, 473 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 9: in doing that he can take away from both Democrats 474 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,400 Speaker 9: and Republicans, depending on what this party stands for, which 475 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,479 Speaker 9: is not clear to me at all, beyond the issue 476 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 9: of pro free trade, anti spending. 477 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 2: Rick, We've only got about a minute left. People have 478 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 2: approached you before to start new political parties to launch 479 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:23,360 Speaker 2: candidacies that were outside of the Democratic and Republican circles. 480 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,719 Speaker 2: There's a reason why this tends not to work. What 481 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:27,959 Speaker 2: would be your answer today? 482 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:30,639 Speaker 6: Yeah, Look, I mean, we have a history of a 483 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 6: two party country here. The structures that we have in 484 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 6: states and federally are geared toward a two party system, 485 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 6: and it's a binary outcome. There's winners and losers. When 486 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 6: you start introducing third parties into the equation, you really 487 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 6: start to mix up what that calculus is. Elon Musk 488 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,439 Speaker 6: got plenty of money to get on the ballot. No 489 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 6: label got on nineteen federal ballots, you know, with I 490 00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 6: don't know about sixty seventy million dollars. That's chickens gratchings 491 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 6: to Elon Musk so he can actually get there. The 492 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 6: question is what are the consequences of fielding candidates in 493 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 6: a third way race? 494 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 3: Well, especially for Tesla shareholders as well. Rick Davis and 495 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 3: Genie Shanzano our political panel. 496 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 497 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn On, 498 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 1: Alma Cockley and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business up 499 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 1: and listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or 500 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 501 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 3: He Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin n Yahu at the White 502 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 3: House for a bilateral meeting and state dinner around six pm. 503 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,239 Speaker 2: Caroline Levitz saying, the President is still in contact with 504 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 2: Iran on a deal which I suspect will come up 505 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 2: in this meeting. But this was supposed to be about 506 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 2: a potential cease fire with Hamas. We should know Benjamin 507 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,400 Speaker 2: dett Yahoo on his third visit here to the White House, 508 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 2: the only world leader who has had more than one. 509 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, three visits in six months. So we want to 510 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 3: get the perspective now from Natasha Hall. She's non resident 511 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,919 Speaker 3: senior associate of her geopolitics and the Foreign Policy Department 512 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,640 Speaker 3: at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She's here 513 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,680 Speaker 3: with us in our Washington, d C. Studio. Nice to 514 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,160 Speaker 3: see you, Natasha, Thank you always great to have you here. 515 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 3: On balance of power, as we consider first, let's just 516 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 3: take the chances of a ceasefire agreement being reached between 517 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 3: Israel and Hamas and what the President is going to 518 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,120 Speaker 3: be able to do to influence that outcome tonight, knowing 519 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 3: he last week announced that Israel had agreed to a 520 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 3: sixty day ceasefire. Apparently it didn't really work out the 521 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 3: way that he may have hoped. So how can that 522 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 3: be advanced with this visit this evening. 523 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 10: Well, we've been here before many times before, and in fact, 524 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 10: this time last year with President Biden, he had attempted 525 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 10: something similar, basically saying Israel had already agreed to a 526 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 10: ceasefire or only to have Natagna who essentially say no. 527 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 10: And so we're here again. And so I think it 528 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 10: remains to be seen what's going to happen, what kind 529 00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 10: of leverage the President will act apply to Netsan Yahu, 530 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:06,720 Speaker 10: but needless to say, billions of dollars in arms, diplomatic 531 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 10: cover at the UN. I mean, the United States has 532 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 10: a lot of leverage to bear if it wants to 533 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 10: use it. And that's the big question. 534 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 2: When you go back to the Biden announcement. There was 535 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 2: a subsequent Biden announcement. Remember everyone was back to the 536 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 2: table on that same deal. It was I think a 537 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 2: four pronged agreement, and it began with this sixty day ceasefire. 538 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 2: Is that still where we're starting in this conversation. 539 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 10: I mean, Unfortunately, it does seem to be where we're starting. 540 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 10: But this time around, because we've seen so many of 541 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:40,719 Speaker 10: these temporary ceasefires, Hams is insisting that should there be 542 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,520 Speaker 10: a sixty day ceasefire, that immediately talks begin to permanently 543 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 10: end the war, which I think is somewhat reasonable given 544 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 10: we're nearly two years in right now, But it does 545 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 10: appear that that would be the starting point. 546 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,240 Speaker 3: Well, and how has Hamas's position been influenced by what 547 00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 3: we saw take place between Iran and US, the US 548 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 3: in Israel with the strikes we saw last month and 549 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 3: now the truth that we are in is Hamas in 550 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 3: a position to kind of hold a tough line here, 551 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:11,719 Speaker 3: are they more in a position to be willing to 552 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 3: negotiate or to acquiesce to some of the demands of 553 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 3: the Israelis. 554 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 10: Well, it takes one look at Gaza to see that 555 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 10: Hamas is in a very weak position. I don't think 556 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 10: it was getting much support from Iran anyways. I think 557 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 10: that the critical issue was whether or not these bombs, 558 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 10: the strikes on Iran would actually lead Netta Yahu to 559 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 10: accept some kind of cease fire deal end to the war, 560 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 10: some kind of plan for the day after, which Israel 561 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,200 Speaker 10: has been very reluctant to discuss in any kind of 562 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 10: meaningful way. But Hamas has sort of always been there 563 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,400 Speaker 10: and willing to negotiate. And I think that you know, 564 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,479 Speaker 10: the three points, the three sticking points that we saw 565 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 10: over the weekend was about the very controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. 566 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 10: It was a about this permanent end to the war 567 00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 10: and Israeli true withdrawals. And so these are the issues 568 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 10: that Natagna, who's already said are unacceptable to him. And 569 00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 10: so you know, it remains to be seen. We're already 570 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 10: hearing reports from Palestinian negotiators and Kalte that Israel sees 571 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 10: a sticking point and just the free flow of aid 572 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 10: into Gaza right now. So we're not in a really 573 00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 10: good position, I think for Gaza, for Hemes, for Palestinians. 574 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,959 Speaker 2: I wanted to ask you about humanitarian aid, food supplies, gas, 575 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 2: the things that are needed inside Gaza. Will that be 576 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 2: part of a ceasefire because it hasn't worked out at 577 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 2: any stage of this process to the level that we 578 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 2: have been promised. 579 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,800 Speaker 10: So this is the thing that I'm really looking for. 580 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 10: Right If we can't even get this into Gaza. Then 581 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 10: I'm very pessimistic. At this point. We're seeing famine like conditions, 582 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 10: hundreds of food distribution points across the strip we're closed 583 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 10: for this Gaza humanitarian you know, foundation for distribution points 584 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 10: where we've seen six hundred people killed just trying to 585 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 10: get aid. So if we can't even see that, I 586 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,480 Speaker 10: think we have a real problem here. And the one 587 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 10: thing that I would say is President Trump doesn't like 588 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 10: bad optics, so that might propel him forward to actually 589 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 10: push Natanyahu maybe behind the scenes, but I won't hold 590 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 10: my breath. 591 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 3: Well, but to that point, Natasha characterize their relationship right now, 592 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 3: because especially when we saw Israel moving first on Iran, 593 00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 3: a lot of people said that was Metanyahu painting President 594 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 3: Trump into a corner, basically acting not in conjunction with him, 595 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,479 Speaker 3: but ahead of him, and making sure that the President 596 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 3: was forced to go along. Ultimately, Is that how you 597 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 3: kind of see this playing out right now? 598 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,560 Speaker 10: So the way I see it is, again, president Trump 599 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:51,040 Speaker 10: doesn't like bad optics. Gaza was bad optics. I think, 600 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 10: you know, US stealth bombers bombing Iranian nuclear sites made 601 00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,040 Speaker 10: him look like a strong president, made him look like 602 00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,719 Speaker 10: he was making things happen, and now we're sort of 603 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 10: back to square one with Gaza. And so, you know, 604 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 10: I think that whatever we see in the days and 605 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 10: weeks ahead, I think for both Neta Yahu and for Trump, 606 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 10: focusing on Iran is better for them politically, you know, domestically, internationally, 607 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 10: et cetera. But at the end of the day, they're 608 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:22,920 Speaker 10: going to have to find some kind of resolution to 609 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 10: this war in Gaza. Otherwise Israel's future looks pretty bleak too. 610 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,440 Speaker 10: There's a number of countries waiting to normalize with Israel. 611 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,920 Speaker 10: But again there's this one sticking point. And you know, 612 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 10: we know that President Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize, 613 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 10: so you know, maybe maybe that's the that's the incentive 614 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:40,920 Speaker 10: at the end of the day. 615 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,360 Speaker 2: Well, it certainly could be. He also wants Gaza to 616 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 2: be the riviera of the Middle East, as he's said, 617 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,080 Speaker 2: displace everyone and build condos. How do you reach a 618 00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:52,360 Speaker 2: peace dealer or a ceasefire with respect to the people 619 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 2: who live there when that's your point of view. 620 00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 10: I mean, this is the big question beyond that sixty 621 00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,120 Speaker 10: day ceasefire. And I think that's why MS wants to 622 00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 10: talk about that, because we did see reports earlier last 623 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,920 Speaker 10: week that there was some kind of consulting sort of 624 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 10: assessment that dictated that, you know, anyone who was displaced 625 00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,399 Speaker 10: about five hundred thousand people from Gaza out of two 626 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:17,279 Speaker 10: million would get about nine thousand dollars per person. So 627 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 10: I mean, this is a serious thing that's been on 628 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 10: the table and continues to be on the table. So 629 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,359 Speaker 10: I mean that also needs to be worked out. Well. 630 00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 3: The White House Press Secretary Caroline Leviott actually just addressed 631 00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,839 Speaker 3: that question in the briefing. She says President Trump never 632 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 3: mentioned a takeover of Gaza, but just rebuilding. So I 633 00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:40,360 Speaker 3: guess perhaps it depends on how you're characterizing the riviera 634 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:45,560 Speaker 3: of what did he say, riviera of yes here Finally, Natasha, 635 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 3: we just have a minute left. But how heavily do 636 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,960 Speaker 3: you expect the question of Iran's outstanding nuclear capabilities to 637 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:52,720 Speaker 3: feature into their conversation tonight? 638 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 10: I think this is what Netagna, who wants to prioritize 639 00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 10: in this meeting. He wants to talk about the wins, 640 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,640 Speaker 10: but he also wants guarantees from the United States that 641 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,399 Speaker 10: if they have any kind of intelligence that Iran has 642 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,520 Speaker 10: continued its nuclear program covertly, that the United States will 643 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 10: be there for them if they want to attack again, 644 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,919 Speaker 10: and maybe that could get Trump across the ceasefire line 645 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,880 Speaker 10: with Natanyahu and Gaza. But I think again remains to 646 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 10: be seen because this president has not been patient with 647 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,960 Speaker 10: peace deals, either in Ukraine or Gaza or elsewhere. So 648 00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 10: the devil will be in the details. 649 00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:35,319 Speaker 2: Details are stubborn sometimes. In February, President Trump said that 650 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,680 Speaker 2: the US would take over and own Gaza as part 651 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 2: of that process. Reminder, Natasha, it's great to see you. 652 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,120 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for coming into talk to us today. 653 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 2: We'll have a lot more on what comes from this 654 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,719 Speaker 2: visit at the White House. Natasha Hall CSIS and great 655 00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:56,560 Speaker 2: experience and insight with us here. As always, thanks for 656 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,640 Speaker 2: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to 657 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,880 Speaker 2: subscrib if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever 658 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,480 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live 659 00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:10,440 Speaker 2: every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.