WEBVTT - Summers Says Trump Rejects Modern Science 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:04.040 Runt You by Bank of America Mary Lynch. With virtual reality, 0:00:04.320 --> 0:00:09.719 virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world. 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:14.440 Be of a, mL dot Com, slash VR, Mary Lynch, 0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:29.240 Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:32.760 I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:37.680 insight from the best of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:43.640 Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:50.880 and of course, on the Bloomberg. How about this, David 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:54.160 gurl great new world. I'm reading it. I don't have 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:56.279 time to read all the books we get in. I'm 0:00:56.360 --> 0:00:59.920 up through chapter three. This is where Queen Victoria's show 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:06.600 is up. It's a beautiful international relations overlaid with history, history, history, history. 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:10.559 It's in English, bonus round, there's no math. Grave New World, 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:13.080 Stephen King seeming him. Great to have you with us 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:15.280 here in New York in our Bloombriger eleven three studios. 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:16.800 Let me start with the news of the day, the 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:19.760 news of the weekend, this terrorist attack in London. You've 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:22.400 write a good deal here in this book about technology 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:26.520 and the dark side. Of technology overlay that if you 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:29.120 would on on globalization, A lot of people tell us 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:31.960 that we have a globalized world principally because of technological development. 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.040 There is a dark side to it that you outline 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:36.080 in this book. There are a lot of dark side 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:39.200 to the technology story. The first dark side actually a 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:41.679 social media the way in which you get the herding 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:43.920 of ideas, and the old days people thought the internet 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:47.160 would be a kind of bastion of truth, whereas it 0:01:47.240 --> 0:01:49.960 allows you increasingly to find people who agree with you, 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:51.960 regardless of whether your views are right or wrong. So 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:53.520 you get this kind of herding which makes it more 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:55.880 difficult to form you feel like a kind of sovereign 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.960 view in anyone nation about what should be going on. Obviously, 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:01.120 when it comes to terror is m we know that 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.960 terrorists in part get their information from social media in 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:07.040 one form or another, sometimes in the dark web, but 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:09.920 nevertheless it's a way of of connecting people in to 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.919 do dastardly and unpleasant things rather than things that could 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:16.160 be in any way significantly positive. I think it's also 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:19.360 worth noting that technology may also have a kind of 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:22.239 negative long run impact on globalization itself. We think about 0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:25.560 outsourcing about global supply chains and so on. But robotics 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:28.440 probably will lead eventually to a lot of these jobs 0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:30.960 being coming back home in one since, but coming back 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:33.720 home to robots rather than to workers, say in China 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.040 or in your or whatever. Then the big questions, well, 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:37.880 who owns the robots? Who makes the money from that 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:40.200 in years to come? But I think it's it's worth 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:43.800 stressing that technology is not something which, if you like, 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:48.040 guarantees that globalization advances. It can both be positive for globalizations, 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:49.840 people have argued over the course of the last twenty 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.040 or thirty years, But equally it can be significantly negative, 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:58.280 And globalization depends ultimately on ideas, institutions, political beliefs, what 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:01.480 humanity does with technology rather than the technology itself. We 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:04.520 saw back last year against globalization many corners of this 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:08.000 country during the last presidential election. It seems like there's 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:10.720 still a definitional problem with globalization. I think a lot 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:12.519 of people don't know how to define it. As Tom 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:16.639 was saying, you trace this back to Christopher Columbus globalist. 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:19.200 Why do we still have so much trouble defining it 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:22.440 and highlighting what is in fact beneficial about globalization? Well, 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:24.760 some people would say it's just a story about multinationals 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:27.280 becoming ever more powerful and reducing the voice of the 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:31.280 common person in some way. Others would point to globalization 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:34.079 being associated with my great reflows. But I would say 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:37.640 that the broad definition is the idea that the borders 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:43.160 inhibit human connections come down. And these connections are obviously 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:47.680 through trade and goods, trading services, movements of capital across borders, 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:50.600 movements of people across borders. You think about the the 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:53.200 European Union and it's so called for freedoms that the 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:55.560 freedom of movements of good services, capital and people. It 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:58.760 once sense, it's a kind of regionalized version of of 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:02.960 globalization um. And of course within the EU there are 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.640 those who who very much support that idea, but there 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:07.680 are those who feel that they've been left behind and 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:10.560 it's not working for them. Do we need new stimulus 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:12.720 as a general statement. I mean, I showed you that 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:14.800 chart earlier, folks. I'll put it out on Twitter. It's 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:17.760 a killer chart. Thanks zero Hedge for pushing me on it. 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:20.440 Back to a comparison of the last decades growth back 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.240 to the nine thirties, I went back to modern economic 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:27.840 data nine seven. Boy, it's unusual hustle of this growth 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:30.800 is yes, what do we just simply are we too 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:34.400 timid in our fiscal stimulus. Well, it's possible that we are, 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:37.400 although it is worth stressing that countries that have used 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:39.480 fiscal stimulus in the past to try to kick start 0:04:39.480 --> 0:04:42.400 their economies have often found that the effects have been 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:45.120 more short lived than they originally expected. In Japan, for example, 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:47.480 had lots of examples of fiscal stimulus in the nies 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:49.719 and beyond, and it ended up building sort of bridges 0:04:49.760 --> 0:04:51.839 to nowhere and so much didn't really help with very much. 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:54.880 Do you think about Spain Before the Global financial crisis, 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:59.920 Spain had huge amounts of infrastructure spending, which certainly helped 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.760 transforming economy, but also left it with a huge amount 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:06.720 of debt, which then led to significant struggles thereafter. So 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:08.760 I think part of the puzzle, one sense, is that 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:11.440 it's a productivity puzzle. Really, that we've got lots of 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:14.520 technology coming out all the time. We can observe it 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:17.159 in our day to day lives, but it isn't having 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:20.599 the kind of productivity impact in lifting output per our 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:23.280 output per head and that you might have seen back 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:26.120 in the fifties. Sixties and seventies. So the danger with 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:29.880 your chart is that perhaps we're seeing a kind of 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:33.480 structural slowdown of economic growth. Is not a cyclical story, 0:05:33.920 --> 0:05:36.279 it is a structural story in once it's akin to 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:39.920 the Japanese experience in the es and beyond. And one 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.159 possible reason for this, and it's only one possible reason 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.440 amongst money, is that Western populations are aging, and as 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:47.920 they age, they become increasingly risk averse. They want to 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:50.240 make sure that they have money upfront rather money investing 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:52.200 for the long run because long ones becoming shorter and 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:55.720 shorter as the population becomes older. And the consequence is 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:59.000 that companies are increasingly under pressure to pay out dividends 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:01.960 or offer share by max than actually to invest for 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:03.800 the long term in their businesses. So you end up 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:07.000 with low rates of capital spending, which of course then 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:10.760 the crates to low rates of GDP growth. Stephen King, 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:12.280 great to see you. Thank you again for coming in 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:13.600 here in New York. Steven King got the author of 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:17.200 Grave New World Way Too Much, Return, Too Much and 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.600 the Return of History. Saw you in London a few 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:21.480 months back. Right to see you here uh in New 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:23.600 York to check out the book and Tom, you're gonna 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:27.880 finish it. Yeah, I know, it's really really What's I mean? 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:30.360 Lord Stern happens to like the book, and a guy 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:32.960 named Summers who's going to join us, and a bit 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:36.200 happens to like. It's an important book is Larry Summers says? 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:38.919 And it's good again, folks over late where it else? 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:42.600 Can you hear Thomas Hobbs, then Stephen king Grave New 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:58.560 World now joining us? A former Secretary of Treasury, Elliott 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:02.360 Professor Harvard University, Laurence Summers, Larry, wonderful to catch up 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:05.000 with you again. I featured at the day the essay 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:07.719 came out. David Frum wrote it up in The Atlantic. 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:09.679 David Brooks wrote it up in The New York Times. 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:14.040 And now you crush the concept of global community and arena. 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:17.640 You take the arena back to Versailles? How is the 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:22.680 President's arena like? The horror and the bad decisions made 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:29.920 it Versailles a lifetime ago. He's abandoned the effort of 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:35.120 creating a stable, prosperous global system in favor of a 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:41.560 farm policy based on individual war off deals. That's not 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:45.720 an approach that's been taken since Versailles. And when it 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:49.080 was taken in Versailles, it was hardly successful. What followed 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:54.120 was depression and ultimately the Second World War. Now I'm 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:56.800 not saying that that's the consequence of his pulling out 0:07:56.840 --> 0:08:01.200 of the Paris Agreement, but I was. I've been troubled 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:04.480 all along by this administration. But I've been able to 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:08.640 understand the argument that the bark has been worse than 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:12.160 the bite, the argument that cong this is going to 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:16.200 prevent some of the most radical proposals from being enacted, 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:19.800 and the argument that he has a set of very 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:24.280 rational and experienced devises in the in the international arena. 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:28.520 I'm prepared to take those arguments very seriously. When two 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:33.320 of the advisors, Garry Cohne and General McMaster, who were 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:39.760 held out as the ones who were experienced and did 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:43.400 the idea of an international system, take to the Wall 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.640 Street Journal to proclaim that such thing as a community 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:50.960 of nations, I mean that idea of a community of nations. 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:57.280 It's not some progressive google saying it was a staple 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:00.960 of the rhetoric of Ronald Reagan and Henry Gisson's jambaker 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:05.880 uh Bush. And when they say that's not part of 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:09.240 our farm policy anymore. I don't see how the rest 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:15.240 of the world can react other than to change their 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:20.040 approach to America. This is miracle. Might or might not 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:23.840 have been prudent to say what she said about other nations, 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:27.000 not about not being able to rely on other nations 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:29.720 the way they had in the past, but I think 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:32.600 she would have been highly irrational. She hadn't had the thought, 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:39.880 and that's why I'm worried. Couple that with growing evidence 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:45.079 that we're in the first UH post rational presidency. Denying 0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:49.760 the evidence on crowd sizes after his aliguration comes from 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:54.560 clear photographs is kind of a trivial example. A budget 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:58.720 with a two trillion dollar arithmatic error is a more 0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:06.240 consequentially able, and an unwillingness to acknowledge the preponderance of 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:11.200 evidence in favor of global climate change is an extraordinarily 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:17.440 consequential example. So I think these two things have to 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:23.840 leave one to be extremely worried. And it would be 0:10:23.960 --> 0:10:28.280 worrisome with leadership of that kind of any nation, but 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:32.600 when it's the United States, it's that much more worry 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.440 generating Professor summaries, how much confidence do you have in 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:37.880 the business community at this point after the US pulled 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:40.280 out of the Paris Accord last week. A number of 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:42.480 executives said they'd continue with the programs they had in 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.720 place to address climate change. Clearly there's a vacuum here 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:47.839 when it comes to climate, when it comes to the 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:51.199 global order. Do you have much confidence in businesses to 0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:54.880 to pick up the mantle. I think what all of 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:59.640 us outside of government do is going to be very important. 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:05.480 If we take the position that patriotism means supporting and 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:09.440 standing with our president, I think others will worry much 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:13.120 more about the United States if we take them. If 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:17.040 we take the position to patriotism lies in standing with 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:24.080 enduring American values, they think others will come to this 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:26.600 is the aberrant period that I hope it will be. 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:29.000 The submissions Secretary, one more question. You have been a 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:31.439 Secretary of Treasury, You've had a lot of other positions. 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:35.640 At six Pennsylvania, a lot of the known world is 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:39.240 waiting for the quote unquote adults in the room to 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:43.280 guide the president to a better outcome. You've been in 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:50.559 those meetings. Do you anticipate that will occur? Look, the 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:54.920 thing that was most surprising to me in the last 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:59.920 week was two of the people who are normally again 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:07.240 to fight, as those adults said, the petulant, petty and 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:11.640 dangerous thing by condemning the idea of community of nations. 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:16.480 Whether they did that out of conviction or whether they 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:21.120 did that because they felt they had to out of loyalty, 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:27.040 we got the answer to the question. The atavistic, ravantist 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:33.240 approach manifest in the President's tweets is for now in 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:37.320 control of your NUE. That's got to be alarming, just 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.800 because because the time, Mr Secretary gonna leave it there. 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:41.840 Lauren Summers, thank you so much, and of course he 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.960 drives forward the dialect. Whether you agree or disagree. I 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.280 really commend Laurence Summers the f T and in the 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:51.520 Washington Post today on the global community in the arena 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:54.520 David Gura, I mean, you know, we we identified this 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:57.400 the day that the essay came out, and then David 0:12:57.440 --> 0:12:59.800 Frum wrote it up in The Atlantic, then David Brooks 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:01.920 owed it up and The Times, and now we see 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.679 Secretary of Summer's writing up this, this search for what 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:09.080 the arena actually means. Yeah. Absolutely powerful words there about 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:11.120 the community of Nations. Also worth reviewing the piece that 0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:13.520 he wrote about the Anderson Bridge and Cambridge on this day, 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:15.559 so we get a week focused on infrastructure. Least so 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:17.960 the White House says, of course, he makes the pilgrimage 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:21.720 from led Our Hall to the Anderson Bridge in Cambridge's reading. 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:23.559 Then I'll put it out on Twitter. Okay, put it. 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.840 I missed that, David Cura on the Anderson Bridge. Good morning, 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:31.680 Bloomberg Talbot in Boston. Don't fall into the river. This 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:41.559 is Bloomberg Runch you by Bank of America Mary Lynch 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:47.320 with virtual reality, virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:51.959 a transforming world VI of a mL dot Com slash VR, 0:13:52.840 --> 0:14:02.079 Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Let's get a 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.120 little insight here and what's going on in Washington this 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.319 week at some congressional recess coming to an end here 0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:08.840 As we push ahead to Thursday again, when the former 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.880 FBI Director James Comby is expected to testify before in 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.880 the Senate Intelligence Committee, Terry Haynes joins us. Now he's 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.800 a senior political strategist, head of political analysis at ever Corps. 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:19.680 I s I. He joins us on our phone lines. Terry, 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.240 great to have you with us here. We're talking with 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:23.280 Larry Summers just a few moments ago, the former US 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:26.760 Treasury secretary about the U s s role in the world. 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:28.720 We could have talked with him about infrastructure as well. 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.640 The White House trying doggedly here uh to shift focus 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:34.120 at least members of the administration artist shift focus to 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:36.800 infrastructure the present. Interceding a bit this morning with some 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.600 tweets about the attacks in London and his travel ban, 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:42.800 how much traction do you expect this administration to make 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:48.360 on fiscal spending on infrastructure going forward? Well, fundamentally, And David, 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:50.760 thank you for having me this morning. You aspire to 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:56.000 be the guy with the beer. Uh. They're undoubtedly as 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:59.360 a political aspect to the infrastructure roll out this week, 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:02.640 But I don't want minimize the need and desire of 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.880 this administration to actually have such an event and the 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.640 and the role is out in a meaningful sense. The 0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:12.280 President talked to Congress at the end of February about 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:16.040 having a trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Uh. You know, our 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:20.320 view for some time, for longer than that, has been that, uh, 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:24.000 there's about three billion dollars over three years available in 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:26.280 direct federal spending, and that the bulk of this is 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:29.440 going to have to come therefore from some sort of 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:34.360 public private partnerships, uh, incentives for private spending. That appears 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:36.200 to be the direction of the way. That generally the 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:39.080 way the administration is going. But they need to get 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:43.280 moving on this. Uh. They need uh not just political accomplishments, 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:48.240 but the infrastructure idea and spending big on infrastructure was 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:51.720 at the core of the president's message during the campaign 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:54.440 and been one of the cores of his appeal, I think, 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.160 and this is something so as a result, this is 0:15:57.200 --> 0:15:59.240 something that they're really going to have to push on hard. 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:01.960 And I know the markets have been waiting for this 0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:04.360 for quite a while, and so a lot of political people. 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:06.720 When you talk to clients, I imagine one thing they 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:08.800 really want to know is what the agenda is shaping 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.080 up to be on Capitol Hill. We're familiar with how 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.600 compressed this congressional calendar is speeding ahead to September thirty. 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:17.120 There on a whole lot of working days between now 0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:19.960 and then. From the House leadership, from the Senate leadership, 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:21.840 do you have a clear sense of what they're going 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:27.240 to prioritize. Uh? Well, I think I do. The The 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:31.360 marching order here is is pretty much that and you 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:34.360 know something that Congress and the President have agreed upon 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:37.920 UH in public, by the way, is that they want 0:16:37.920 --> 0:16:43.400 to finish the fiscal reconciliation instructions on the Affordable Care Act. 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:47.120 In English, that means getting rid of the UH the 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:51.479 c A tax structure. That that will then allow Congress 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:55.000 to roll those savings, which many things could be as 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:57.360 much as a trillion dollars as the less probably, But 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.040 then you know, think of it that way into the 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:08.359 CIST reconciliation where where you get a tax for a 0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:12.960 tax reform UH program, and what that ends up doing 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.800 is lowering the budget baseline by about a trillion dollars, 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:20.400 thereby making tax reform much more aggressive than possible. That 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:24.720 has to happen. Are my view today is that they've 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.399 got to finish the A c A probably by the 0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:30.720 August recess UH to keep everything on track, and then 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:33.040 they can turn to tax reform and the fall That 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:35.119 seems to be the way it's going do. Seems to 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:38.200 be the priorities. Then you get to your first question, 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:40.840 which is infrastructure. I mean, infrastructure is a practical matter. 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:45.920 Then doesn't doesn't really come come until the those two 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:48.920 things I mentioned plus spending bills in the fall, and 0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:51.760 the debt ceiling, whether it comes before the August recess 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:54.000 or afterwards, take up much of the rest of the 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:58.199 congressional calendar this year. So infrastructure, UH, the facto it 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:02.080 becomes item today epitomizes for me is that you can 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:04.640 have the best laid plans right now with his administration 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:07.480 whish Washington, and they can be up ended rather quickly. 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.160 You have Gary Cohen in the newspapers in the media 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:12.840 over the weekend outlining his expectations for the week, again 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:14.760 with a focus on infrastructure. Then you get a number 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:18.200 of tweets from the present this morning, UH, casting light 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:21.120 in a different direction, looking at this travel ban. He's 0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:23.960 embracing the term travel ban. He's encouraging his Attorney General, 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:26.679 the Justice Department to defend a water down version of 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.679 it before the Supreme Court. How do you deal with that? 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:31.680 How do you advise clients to deal with that? The 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:33.240 fact that you could have what you think is a 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.240 clear sense of what's going to happen in Washington and 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:37.480 then all of a sudden that changes with just a 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:43.280 hundred forty characters. I think I urged context David and UH. 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.439 The past few years. I mean this is believing, not 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.600 casting as persions on the the prior administration at all, uh, 0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:53.280 not making this a value judgment. But you had a 0:18:53.320 --> 0:18:57.640 relatively uh stable Washington over the past few years. People 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.000 understood what was going to happen. People understood prayer or 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:02.280 he's all arrest. Now you get, for the first time 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.600 in eight years, a brand new administration with new priorities. 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:09.080 So there's you know, things all over the map happened. UH. 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:12.000 And you know, this is of course a concern demandent's 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:14.600 because they need to understand what's going on, and there's 0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:17.440 more activities simultaneously than there has been in a lot 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:23.320 of years. My urging is to essentially, you know, keep 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:26.040 your focus on the basics, what is actually going on? 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:30.320 What is what what is you know, what are the priorities? Uh? 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:33.280 And this administration, of course, I say, we'll have priorities 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.879 across the board, but focus on what's actually happening in 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:39.640 the timetable and uh, and that will tell you what's 0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:42.080 actually going to happen. Terry, thank you so much. Terry 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:46.400 Haynes with side this morning with a briefing to David. Really, 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:48.000 Thursday is the big day. I mean we get the 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:52.439 UK election, but that's a testimony, right, yeah, absolutely, and 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.440 it's going to be open session in the morning, there'll 0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:56.800 be a close session testimony in the afternoon. And obviously 0:19:56.840 --> 0:19:58.600 a lot of this was hammered out in conversations with 0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:02.120 Robert Mueller, who's now heading up how does an investigation 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:04.720 what James Commy said he wouldn't testify before consulting with him, 0:20:04.760 --> 0:20:08.280 so you have these dual track investigations. And Mr Commy 0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:10.480 said he wanted to be clear that what he was 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:12.560 going to say an open session wouldn't be stepping on 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:15.080 the toast of one Mr Mueller's and investigating. Yes, all 0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:16.720 eyes will be on Washington. Think it's fair to say. 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:19.359 On on Thursday, I had an email come in which 0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:23.600 which was where's the photo from the president's new Twitter page? 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:26.720 He changes his photo a lot often. I believe it's Denver. 0:20:27.680 --> 0:20:29.760 I've been going back and forth with Kevin Si really 0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:32.320 trying to figure it out. But he did rally him 0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:37.720 Denver with a humongous number of people. You know, airplane 0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:40.000 hang Yeah, familiar image here with with a pat air 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:41.800 plane hanger, and there is of course one on the outside. 0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:44.640 The plan has changed but the scene very much the same, 0:20:45.880 --> 0:21:01.720 does he Well, that's that great, Just a moment to 0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:04.480 go to talk to the National Association for Business Economics. 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:06.679 You gon to talk to somebody else, Tomas membership dues too. 0:21:06.720 --> 0:21:10.000 That's Richard Hass, the president of the Council Right for Relations, 0:21:10.000 --> 0:21:12.320 the author of the book A World in Disarray, American 0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:15.400 Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order, joining 0:21:15.440 --> 0:21:17.040 us on our phone lines. Richard Hoss, great to speak 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:18.439 with you once again. Let me start with what the 0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:22.359 Prime Minister said yesterday quote. Our society should continue to 0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:24.760 function in accordance with our values, but when it comes 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:29.840 to taking on extremism and terrorism, things need to change. 0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:32.840 What what needs to change in London in the West 0:21:32.880 --> 0:21:36.280 in light of what happened over the weekend in London. Yeah, 0:21:36.320 --> 0:21:39.400 it's all about the balances and in a democratic society, 0:21:39.480 --> 0:21:44.480 how much surveillance versus how much privacy, how much police presence, 0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:47.760 how well are they how are they to be armed? 0:21:48.640 --> 0:21:52.000 Access to information and free use of the internet versus 0:21:52.080 --> 0:21:56.439 greater degrees of control over certain types of content. And 0:21:56.520 --> 0:21:58.800 that's what Teresa They the Prime Minister, is getting at. 0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:02.359 What I think she suggests thing is that the pendulum 0:22:02.359 --> 0:22:07.480 needs to shift somewhat in the direction of protecting collective 0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:10.199 security and a little bit less of an emphasis on 0:22:10.320 --> 0:22:14.119 individual freedom or privacy. Something else that the Prime Minister 0:22:14.200 --> 0:22:16.600 suggested is the tech companies need to do more. We've 0:22:16.640 --> 0:22:19.440 heard this now time and time again after these attacks. 0:22:19.440 --> 0:22:22.840 How much responsibility does the private sector bear? Do these 0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:26.240 tech companies bear? What should governments be doing to to 0:22:26.400 --> 0:22:30.480 encourage tech companies to do more? Well, again, it's it's 0:22:30.480 --> 0:22:33.080 going to be very difficult because of the balances, and 0:22:33.080 --> 0:22:35.880 it's also just simply hard to keep up. It's quite 0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:40.919 easy for people to innovate with new sites on Twitter 0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:45.359 or Facebook or or some of the fancier UH Telegraph 0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:48.000 and some other sites like that. So sure, the companies 0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:50.080 can do more if they wish to do more, but 0:22:50.119 --> 0:22:53.399 they're also worried that to to intimate a relationship with 0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:57.280 law enforcement and intelligence will lose the trust of their users. 0:22:57.320 --> 0:22:59.480 So this is there's some tough calls for them as well. 0:22:59.520 --> 0:23:04.720 Here wonder woman got a huge box office switched in 0:23:04.920 --> 0:23:08.720 eighteen years ago, the bureaucratic entrepreneur got just as large 0:23:08.720 --> 0:23:14.720 a box office. Confused the bureaucratic entrepreneur, how to be 0:23:14.800 --> 0:23:19.160 effective in an unruly organization, Ambassador, if you were writing 0:23:19.200 --> 0:23:22.679