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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Equity Market's coming off

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Speaker 2: the last week of the year, the best week of

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Speaker 2: the year investors looking ahead to Friday when fed Share

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Speaker 2: Jaypowe speaks and we get the core PCU deflator Ediardenny

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Speaker 2: of Yourdenny Research writing this and the Financial Times at

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Speaker 2: this nirvana level, all is right with the US economy

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Speaker 2: because it is growing while inflation remains moderate. If the

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Speaker 2: economy is doing well with the current level of interest rates,

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Speaker 2: why lower them? At your Danny on places say, joined

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Speaker 2: this now for more at fantastic piece in the FT.

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Speaker 2: Enjoyed reading over for him when it came out a

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Speaker 2: little bit earlier. This morning, you say, why mess with success?

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Speaker 2: Can I get you a base case? Do you think

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Speaker 2: they will mess with success?

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Speaker 3: Well, based on what I heard coming in the press

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Speaker 3: at the press conference that Ja Powell had, it seems

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Speaker 3: as though he at least is continuing to.

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Speaker 4: Tell us all that they.

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Speaker 3: Probably are going to lower interest rates, and that kind

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Speaker 3: of again raises the question exactly why is that. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we had a hot CPI and PPI a few days

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Speaker 3: before his press conference, and yet notwithstanding that, he expressed

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Speaker 3: confidence all as well, and he's right about the economy.

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Speaker 3: The economy is doing absolutely fine. I think there's some

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Speaker 3: Fed officials who believe in the concept of real interest

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Speaker 3: rates that if inflation continue used to come down, then

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Speaker 3: real rate real rates will be restrictive and that might

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Speaker 3: cause a recession. So I'm concluding that the Fed put

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Speaker 3: might actually be back.

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Speaker 2: So if they do go forward a mess with success,

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Speaker 2: Given that you believed the Fed put is back, does

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Speaker 2: it really matter? Is it equities up and up and

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Speaker 2: up and why.

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Speaker 3: No, it's fine for the economy. I think inflation is

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Speaker 3: still going to moderate though. I think they're taking a chance.

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Speaker 3: Here's with all prices going up the way they have.

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Speaker 3: That's not an area that can always spill over to

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Speaker 3: the rest of the economy.

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Speaker 4: So I don't think they want to get.

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Speaker 3: Everybody thinking about the possibility of inflation coming back. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think this is starting to possibly be reminiscent of

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Speaker 3: the nineteen nineties. And if you ask me where we

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Speaker 3: are in the nineteen nineties, I think we're at December fifth,

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Speaker 3: nineteen ninety six, where Alan Greenspan asked, how do we

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Speaker 3: know if it's the irrational exuberance? And I'm concerned that

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Speaker 3: the market go up too fast. I mean, it's great

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Speaker 3: on the way up. Melt up so wonderful, but by

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Speaker 3: definition they can lead to meltdowns, and so that's where

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Speaker 3: my concern is. Look, I've been forecasting fifty four hundred

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Speaker 3: by year end. We can get there by the end

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Speaker 3: of the week the way things are going well.

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Speaker 5: But just to sort of sit a little bit on

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Speaker 5: what you were talking about with respect to commodities or

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Speaker 5: oil prices, we've seen a number of strategistical misass coming

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Speaker 5: out and seeing the potential for a fifteen percent gain

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Speaker 5: in raw materials over the duration of this year, in

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Speaker 5: part because the FED is going to allow growth to continue.

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Speaker 5: Mike Wilson over at Morgan Stanley also talking up the

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Speaker 5: liking likelihood that a commodity oriented cyclical boom really gets ignited.

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Speaker 5: At what point does this become a problem for the

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Speaker 5: broader market with the idea of inflation coming back.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm not that worried about the inflation story because

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Speaker 3: I think, certainly on the good side, China is going

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Speaker 3: to continue to export deflation. We cantinue to see that

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Speaker 3: their producer price index is negative. We continue to see

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Speaker 3: that import prices for the US coming in from China,

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Speaker 3: those are negative on a year over year basis. China's

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Speaker 3: in a pretty serious recession. They're really in a property depression,

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Speaker 3: kind of similar to what happened in Japan a while

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Speaker 3: ago and in the United States, and it takes years

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Speaker 3: to off set or to come out of that kind

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Speaker 3: of deflationary experience. So I'm not particularly worried about price inflation.

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Speaker 3: I'm more concerned about asset inflation. You know, it's not

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Speaker 3: just the stock market that sanitary, it's also gold that's bitcoin.

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Speaker 4: Spread between high yield corporate.

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Speaker 3: Bonds and the treasuries is extremely narrow, So that's where

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Speaker 3: the Fed's running a risk here.

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Speaker 4: I think there should be three mandates.

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Speaker 3: If they're going to have a mandate to keep inflation down,

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Speaker 3: price inflation down, keep unemployment rate down, they also have

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Speaker 3: to be concerned about financial stability.

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Speaker 6: And when you look at the take from Mohammad A.

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Speaker 6: Lar told us on Friday, it might not be this

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Speaker 6: pinpoint when it comes to inflation. Maybe the FED is

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Speaker 6: now targeting a range, and he said last week was

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Speaker 6: a really good moment where potentially you saw that shift.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree.

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Speaker 6: Do you think the Fed is now looking at a

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Speaker 6: range instead of two percent?

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Speaker 3: Well, it seems more like based on what pal said,

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Speaker 3: that their target is still two percent.

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Speaker 4: They're not putting that in a range.

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Speaker 3: It's just Palell kept saying over and over again that

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Speaker 3: they're shooting for two percent over time. Two percent over time.

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Speaker 3: He said it several times. And that implies that they're

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Speaker 3: willing to lower rates before they actually get to two percent,

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Speaker 3: whereas the message before seemed to be that they're not

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Speaker 3: going to lower rates until they're actually at two percent

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Speaker 3: or so close to it and so comfortable that it's

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Speaker 3: going to stay there that they can go ahead and ease.

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Speaker 3: So I think the message right now is pretty ambiguous.

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Speaker 3: Quite honestly, it does kind of make me wonder, what

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Speaker 3: do they know that I don't know what's the worst

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Speaker 3: to lower rates.

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Speaker 2: The answer to that is maybe nothing, as you know,

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Speaker 2: because they're often surprised by many things. And I just

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Speaker 2: want to know, given everything you've said in the last

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Speaker 2: five minutes or so, what are you advocating for in

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Speaker 2: equity markets? What are you ratificating for now from here

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Speaker 2: to year? Rent?

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Speaker 4: Well, I'm still going to use fifty four hundred.

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Speaker 3: I mean, obviously we were only you know what, two

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Speaker 3: three percent away from that, But I'm I think it's

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Speaker 3: still a bullmarket. I think next year we'll be looking

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Speaker 3: at six thousand, maybe sixty five hundred by the year

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Speaker 3: after that.

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Speaker 4: So I think we're still in a bull market. I

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Speaker 4: think you're stay invested, and.

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Speaker 3: If we get them melt up, well we'll have to

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Speaker 3: discuss whether it's time to take some profits before I

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Speaker 3: melt down.

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Speaker 4: But that's that's a risk scenario right now. It's not

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Speaker 4: the most likely scenario.

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Speaker 5: So where does the financial stability point come into play?

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Speaker 5: How concerned are you about that?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think it's kind of like the nineteen nineties

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Speaker 3: in that regard, but it's not nineteen ninety nine.

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Speaker 4: It's more like nineteen ninety six. So we maybe early

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Speaker 4: on in the.

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Speaker 3: Financial instability issue here, But things move pretty quickly these days,

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Speaker 3: and everybody knows the history of the stock market.

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Speaker 4: They knows what happened in the nineteen nineties.

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Speaker 3: And if the FED really, you know, gives us a

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Speaker 3: rate cut before we're expecting it, I think you'll see

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Speaker 3: the market.

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Speaker 4: Moving a lot higher.

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Speaker 5: How much are you concerned about bonds waking up to

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Speaker 5: the idea of something of a range of the idea

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Speaker 5: of stick your inflation right.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think the bottom market is happy to see

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Speaker 3: the inflation coming down, and I think the bottom market

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Speaker 3: is struggling the way all of us are with the

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Speaker 3: Fed's message. What do they really want to do here?

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Speaker 3: You know, the foc statement, It made it sound like

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Speaker 3: we're going to wait until we have the data that

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Speaker 3: gives us confidence that inflation's coming down. And how modified

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Speaker 3: that statement by saying that you know, things probably are

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Speaker 3: going to work out in that direction.

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Speaker 2: And this just sounds like extended cycle, which raises the

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Speaker 2: question about the cycle that I'd like to rimput on.

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Speaker 7: Here.

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Speaker 2: Are a lot of people come on this program and

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Speaker 2: say we're late, Psycho. I think Lisa's asked the question

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Speaker 2: a few times, just how late are we actually, I've

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Speaker 2: given the conversation.

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Speaker 3: We have it.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 3: I think we've discovered over the past couple of years

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Speaker 3: that history doesn't always repeat itself, but it does rhyme,

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Speaker 3: and you know, we are I think just somewhere in

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Speaker 3: the middle of the cycle.

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Speaker 4: I don't think we're late.

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Speaker 3: I think the economy is still showing plenty of signs

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Speaker 3: of infation, is coming down. But you know, you have

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Speaker 3: to put everything in a global context. It's not just

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Speaker 3: the same old US business cycle. It's you have to

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Speaker 3: put it in the context of what's going on in China,

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Speaker 3: what's going on in Europe, what's going on in the geopolitics, if.

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Speaker 2: You had any research. And thank you sir, giving us

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Speaker 2: lots to think about.

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Speaker 1: Stocks.

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Speaker 2: Pausing on the back of another record week, we love

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Speaker 2: doing shows for you. Fueled by the Fed's latest confirmation

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Speaker 2: we really do it will cut sometime this year with

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Speaker 2: the market on track for its fifth consecutive month of games.

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Speaker 2: I'm speaking to management, not the audience. Neil Dutta, we

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Speaker 2: love doing it for you too. Here's the quote, Neil,

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Speaker 2: the market's rightly viewed the FED decision as duvish, hence

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Speaker 2: the rallying stocks and bonds. The risk is that January

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Speaker 2: and February's inflation data represent a series of higher than

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Speaker 2: expecting inflation prints. Ultimately power ses. The stance of monetary

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Speaker 2: policy is very restrictive. As a result, he's more an

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Speaker 2: alert for downside surprises to growth than he is upside

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Speaker 2: surprises to inflation. Neil, I'm pleased to say, joined us

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Speaker 2: now for more So, Neil, let's get into your framework.

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Speaker 2: I remember a line of yours at the end of

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Speaker 2: last year. I remember you sent me a message and

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Speaker 2: you said, the labor market is no longer a reason

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Speaker 2: to be hawkish. And I thought it was really important

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Speaker 2: at the time, because it wasn't just that the labor

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Speaker 2: market was somehow weakening or deteriorating. It was that even

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Speaker 2: with labor market strength, even with economic growth, that was

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Speaker 2: no longer a reason per se to be hawkish. Now,

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Speaker 2: can you just walk us through how you thinking about

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Speaker 2: the economy with that in mind?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 8: Sure, thanks John for having me on. Well, you know,

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Speaker 8: compensation growth equals inflation plus productivity. Okay, and we know

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Speaker 8: that compensation growth is moderating. You know, there's a lot

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Speaker 8: of focus, of course on wages because that's the monthly data.

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Speaker 8: But you know, remember that benefits are slowing a lot

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Speaker 8: more rapidly than wages and salaries, and in theory, workers

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Speaker 8: bargain over their entire compensation package. And when you look

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Speaker 8: at quits, quits are basically below where they were just

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Speaker 8: before the pandemic, and it suggests that broad measures of

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Speaker 8: compensation growth like the employment cost Index will be you know,

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Speaker 8: somewhere in the vicinity of three percent by the end

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Speaker 8: of the first quarter. Now, if you have three percent

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Speaker 8: compensation growth, and we know that productivity is normalizing to

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Speaker 8: around one and a half percent, where's the inflation coming from.

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Speaker 8: So compensation is three maybe three and a half, and

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Speaker 8: productivities around one and a half, then you're at the

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Speaker 8: fed's underlying inflation.

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Speaker 1: Objective of two.

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Speaker 8: So there's a lot of focus right now on things

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Speaker 8: like goods prices, producer prices. You know, as I mentioned

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Speaker 8: the last time I was on the program, Lisa is

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Speaker 8: very focused on chocolate prices. But but there's limited paths

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Speaker 8: through from those things into core consumer prices. And I

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Speaker 8: do think that the normalization of labor market conditions will

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Speaker 8: take a lot of the pressure off of services which

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Speaker 8: are running, you know, well above what they normally run

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Speaker 8: above with respect to goods prices.

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Speaker 2: Now, one take that we heard last week repeatedly, I

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Speaker 2: think across the street, including from yourself, was that the

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Speaker 2: FED was embracing this supply site narrative. Could you briefly

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Speaker 2: describe that a little bit more broadly and help me

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Speaker 2: understand how do you set monetary policy when it's the

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Speaker 2: supply site doing all the work?

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Speaker 8: Well, I mean, I think first it's important to understand

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Speaker 8: why the supply side looks better. I think that's primarily

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Speaker 8: a function of normalization dynamics following the pandemic. So you know,

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Speaker 8: this time last year, labor productivity growth was deeply negative,

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Speaker 8: and now it's normalizing that. That's that essentially raises the

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Speaker 8: speed limit for the economy. So if you have stronger

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Speaker 8: economic growth, as Powell mentioned, I mean, you could have

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Speaker 8: stronger employment and economic growth without necessarily pushing inflation higher.

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Speaker 8: And I think that's why it's important. Gives the FED

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Speaker 8: room to kind of recalibrate policy. But you know, I mean,

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Speaker 8: and that's why it's important, you know. So productivity is up,

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Speaker 8: that gives the Fed a little bit more more space

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Speaker 8: to ease, you know, modestly, if inflation's slowing more quickly.

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Speaker 5: Neil, I'm having a hard time, and I'm having a

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Speaker 5: hard time for a number of reasons, partly because it's

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Speaker 5: very hard to find people who can really pose and

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Speaker 5: sort of negative case. But there is one to be

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Speaker 5: made with the data that is coming in hotter than

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Speaker 5: expected in certain areas. You talk about the fact that

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Speaker 5: wage inflation seems to be nowhere. The New York Fed

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Speaker 5: has a new measure of trend wage inflation that Torst's

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Speaker 5: slock put out this morning, saying that it's currently running

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Speaker 5: at five percent, looking pretty sticky. Other measures showing that

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Speaker 5: inflation is reaccelerating, with Jim Bianco is saying this no

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Speaker 5: landing is going to pose a real problem for bond markets.

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Speaker 5: How do you dismiss those things out of turn and

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Speaker 5: retain faith in the disinflation story.

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Speaker 8: Well, you have to go to first principles. I mean,

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Speaker 8: I'm not a big believer in indicator macro. I don't

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Speaker 8: like going and saying look at this indicator. See you

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Speaker 8: know it's up well, I mean that's again, as I

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Speaker 8: mentioned before, I mean, looking at the wage number, that's

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Speaker 8: one thing, But people bargain over their entire compensation, right,

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Speaker 8: I mean, that's just to me, that's a red herring

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Speaker 8: to distract people from the best measure of compensation growth,

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Speaker 8: which is the employment cost index. Okay, and you know

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Speaker 8: there's minimal pass through from goods into into core consumer prices.

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Speaker 8: But as I mentioned first principles, where is the acceleration

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Speaker 8: in household and corporate measures of inflation expectations? Where is

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Speaker 8: this showing up in earnings calls? Where I mean Costco

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Speaker 8: is talking about basically holding the line on prices, Walmart's

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Speaker 8: talking about bringing their roleback back. So I mean, if

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Speaker 8: households expect inflation to basically be you know, I mean

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Speaker 8: those expectations have been coming down in the last few months,

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Speaker 8: it would suggest that, you know, the inflation upside surprises

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Speaker 8: that we've seen in the realized data will be fleeting.

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Speaker 8: I'd also point out I'd also point out Lisa, that

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Speaker 8: inflation data has been generally on the weaker side of

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Speaker 8: the consensus overseas interesting it would support the idea that

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Speaker 8: I think the FED is putting a lot of currency

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Speaker 8: into I think rightly that residual seasonality is a big

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Speaker 8: driver of why the inflation numbers looked a little bit

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Speaker 8: worse anywhere in February.

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Speaker 5: Then, Neil, if that's the case, do you reject this

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Speaker 5: idea of a reacceleration of the economy in some sort

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Speaker 5: of material way of broadening out around the world and

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Speaker 5: see that that's premature because there is more weakness under

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Speaker 5: the hood and frankly challenges to certain businesses that don't

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Speaker 5: have the pricing power that would suggest that the FED

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Speaker 5: was justified and cutting now, I.

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Speaker 8: Think to me, the strength of the economy, that's a

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Speaker 8: reason to expect a ceiling on how many cuts the

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Speaker 8: FED can deliver. It's not a reason for the FED

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Speaker 8: not to cut at all. I think part of this

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Speaker 8: is we're all very used to the FED cutting a

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Speaker 8: lot or not at all, because primarily it's you know,

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Speaker 8: they're cutting aggressively to stop a recession from gaining hold,

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Speaker 8: or they're already too late, and that's why you're in

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Speaker 8: a recesion. You have to cut a lot. What I'm

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Speaker 8: talking about is just a recalibration of policy. It's difficult

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Speaker 8: to see the FED cutting six seven times, because, as

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Speaker 8: you mentioned, the economy strong, but if inflation is falling,

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Speaker 8: they can at least adjust policy a little bit to

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Speaker 8: kind of reset the economy. This isn't an outright easing.

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Speaker 8: It's just simply taking policy from significantly restrictive to maybe

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Speaker 8: a little bit less restrictive. That's all I mean. This

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Speaker 8: isn't like a broad wholesale change. I think that's kind

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Speaker 8: of the sort of thing that people are getting. I think,

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Speaker 8: in my view confused by this isn't a wholesale change

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Speaker 8: of policy. It's simply a recalibration of monetary conditions.

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Speaker 2: Now, I'd like to finish there, because I think those

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Speaker 2: words are really important, just how bullish the reaction function

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Speaker 2: of the Federal Reserve actually is, because many people run

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Speaker 2: away with the idea that it was super, super bullish. No,

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Speaker 2: I just wonder how close we actually were to having

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Speaker 2: a very different conversation if that median dot had shifted

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Speaker 2: from three cuts to two, and it was very close

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Speaker 2: to doing so. Do you think the conversation would have

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Speaker 2: been very different after the FED meeting?

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Speaker 8: Onestake, not really, because what would have happened My sense

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Speaker 8: is that the bond market I mean, the markets probably

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Speaker 8: would have sold off a little bit. I mean, certainly

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Speaker 8: the expectation going into that meeting John was that, you know,

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Speaker 8: we were kind of gravitating. The risk was for for

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Speaker 8: two cuts instead of three, and maybe if they penciled

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Speaker 8: into the markets would have taken that and and sold

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Speaker 8: off a little bit. You would have seen a modest

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Speaker 8: tightening of financial conditions. But then guess what, Cheri Powel

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Speaker 8: would have come out, struck the same dubbish tone, and

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Speaker 8: then markets would have rout.

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Speaker 1: So I you know, I don't know.

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Speaker 8: I mean, I think I think the big story is

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Speaker 8: they're cutting, they're just not cutting as aggressively. And the

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Speaker 8: strong growth in the economy puts a floor or sorry

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Speaker 8: a ceiling under how many cuts they can do. And

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Speaker 8: that's also in the dots. That's the that's in the

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Speaker 8: outlook for twenty five and twenty six.

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Speaker 2: Got it, Neil, cry to catch up, Got to do

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Speaker 2: it again soon, no doubt to the redmac on the

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Speaker 2: latest in the economy on the Federals of have Aswell

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Speaker 2: PRAMO following a series of dubbish Central Bank matings, Jim

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Speaker 2: Bianco of Bianco Research saying this the Fed cannot randomly

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Speaker 2: pick some day and cut rights if they do, and

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Speaker 2: the market thinks it is not serious about inflation, soal

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Speaker 2: bombs FED dubbishness only works if the market is convinced

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Speaker 2: inflation is not a problem. Right now, it's unsure. Jim

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Speaker 2: joins us now for more, Jim, are you unsure?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I am.

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Speaker 7: I mean if you look at the markets, we've got

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Speaker 7: the so called everything rally, except one thing has not

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Speaker 7: been rallying with the everything rally, and that's been the

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Speaker 7: bond market. It has been kind of meandering unchanged, especially

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Speaker 7: if you go back to before the FED meeting.

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Speaker 1: It here's the Fed wants to cut rates. It looks

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Speaker 1: at the data.

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Speaker 7: It sees stronger data, higher inflation expectations. It also sees

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Speaker 7: the FED upgrading its inflation and economic growth forecasts. And

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Speaker 7: I think it's wondering is this a good idea for

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Speaker 7: the Fed to be cutting rates? Because if they're not careful,

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Speaker 7: they could cut rates, and if the bond market's thinking

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Speaker 7: that they're unsious about inflation, we could wind up with

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Speaker 7: higher yields, not lower yields. I think that's what we

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Speaker 7: saw last summer when the FED stopped raising rates on

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Speaker 7: July twenty sixth, the market was worried, it was unseerious

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Speaker 7: about inflation. We were at three ninety on the ten

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Speaker 7: year note. Ninety days later we were over five percent

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Speaker 7: before it started to really believe that the inflation numbers

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Speaker 7: were coming down.

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Speaker 2: You said last year that disinflation was transit three. Jim.

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Speaker 8: You said that.

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Speaker 2: You came out very early on and said it. I wondered, Jim,

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Speaker 2: what you saw at the time that led you to believe.

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Speaker 1: So just looking at the data, you're right.

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Speaker 7: I mean I was looking at headline CPI and it

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Speaker 7: has bottomed June of twenty twenty three to three percent.

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Speaker 7: And if you look at the data going forward from here,

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Speaker 7: especially the March data should be very strong, and you're

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Speaker 7: probably not going to be below three percent.

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Speaker 1: Until the fall, if not the earliest.

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Speaker 7: Unless price ACCRUDEIL collapses down to fifty dollars, then you'll

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Speaker 7: get there, But short.

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Speaker 1: Of that, you're not going to be below three percent.

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Speaker 7: And what I saw was just that the housing data

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Speaker 7: was staying stickier than everybody thought, the wage data was

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Speaker 7: staying stickier than everybody thought, and in oil and energy prices,

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Speaker 7: which matters for headline CP was also not really declining

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Speaker 7: to the extreme that everybody wants, and I think that's

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Speaker 7: still the case as we move forward.

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Speaker 5: When is it going to be something that the bond

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Speaker 5: market wakes up to, because right now it hasn't been

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Speaker 5: material sell off, and frankly, bonds have handled this pretty well.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, they've handed it well, you know over the last

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Speaker 7: couple of weeks, which I've said, it's been on sure,

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Speaker 7: But of course the ten ure yield started the year

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Speaker 7: three eighty eight, so it's up about forty basis points

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Speaker 7: for the year as we end the first quarter. The

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Speaker 7: other problems, or the other issue in the bond market

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Speaker 7: is everybody's bullish. Everybody thinks that bond. Bloomberg had a

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Speaker 7: story basically about, you know, we're back in the curve

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Speaker 7: steepening trade again. Everybody's losing money in that trade, but

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Speaker 7: don't worry, it's going to be a good trade to

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Speaker 7: wind up making.

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Speaker 1: And that's really what the bond market is.

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Speaker 7: Dealing with is a lot of bullishness right now, but

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Speaker 7: data that is not supporting it.

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Speaker 1: So it's going to take some time.

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Speaker 7: And I think if the data continues to come in

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Speaker 7: stronger than expected and the inflation data stays hotter than

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Speaker 7: its affected, the bond market will eventually turn towards higher yields.

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Speaker 5: Well, this is really something that we were talking about

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Speaker 5: with Sinaldasaia and she said that she still likes duration actually,

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Speaker 5: and the reason why is just because of the wall

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Speaker 5: of money. And it's clear that there is so much

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Speaker 5: liquidity in the system that's got to go somewhere, and

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Speaker 5: the ball of money is just going into every risk

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Speaker 5: asset as well as bonds. How do you argue against

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Speaker 5: that that that's not going to persist.

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Speaker 1: Well, it is going to persist until the wall of

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Speaker 1: money ends.

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Speaker 7: And really the biggest driver of that wall of money

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Speaker 7: has been central bank policy. Now I know they're doing QT,

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Speaker 7: but they're also having their reverse repo facility roll off.

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Speaker 1: I know this is a bit wonky.

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Speaker 7: That's money that's outside the financial system that's getting pushed

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Speaker 7: into the financial system, that is creating more liquidity. That's

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Speaker 7: within a couple of weeks to a month of ending,

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Speaker 7: and then all of a sudden, I think the liquidity

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Speaker 7: situation in the bond market or in financial markets generally

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Speaker 7: is going to start to turn lower, and that wall

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Speaker 7: of money is really going towards where it's treated the best,

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Speaker 7: and that's cash. It's you know, we've seen a trillion

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Speaker 7: and a half dollars go into money market funds and

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Speaker 7: they just keep booming to new highs, and why shouldn't

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Speaker 7: they the highest point in the yield curve and their

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Speaker 7: forward looking thinker, Tom Keene has now got a quadruple

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Speaker 7: levered cash fund and so I think he's got the

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Speaker 7: right idea when it comes to where you should be.

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Speaker 4: That's right.

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Speaker 2: He had this European tour last week, celebrates in Jim

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Speaker 2: Bianco at Vianco Research. Jim is going to catch up, buddy.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillants podcast, bringing you the best

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00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,240
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