1 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Hey guys, this is Greg Rosenthald. This is the NFL Daily. 2 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: The regular top of the show is going to be 3 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: in just a minute. But after we recorded a great 4 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: show with Aaron Schottz looking at some team projections, we 5 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: got the news that Christian Wilkins of the Raiders has 6 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,599 Speaker 1: been released by the team. The Raiders are one of 7 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: the teams that we talked about at length in this show, 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: so we wanted to get it updated, especially because this 9 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: is the first news bomb drop that we've had. He 10 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:34,240 Speaker 1: to remind you, Christian Wilkins, formerly of the Miami Dolphins, 11 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: seinety five year, one hundred and ten million dollar contract 12 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:39,959 Speaker 1: just a year ago. At the time, it was reported 13 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 1: that eighty four million dollars of it was guaranteed. Wilkins 14 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 1: has already gotten just about fifty million dollars of that guaranteed. 15 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: And it sounds like, according to our insider Ian Rappaport, 16 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: who has been out front with this story, that there 17 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: is a disagreement between the Raiders and Christian Wilkins about 18 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: how he has been rehabbing that surgically repaired foot. They 19 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: wanted him to get surgery. They had multiple medical opinions 20 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: that said to get another surgery. 21 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: He didn't want to do it. 22 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 1: They tried to take away a big chunk of his 23 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: guaranteed money, about thirty five million dollars. He and the 24 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: NFLPA apparently has filed a grievance to get that thirty 25 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: five million dollars. So sometimes when the insiders report fully guaranteed, 26 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,399 Speaker 1: it might not be fully guaranteed, but that will be 27 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 1: settled in the court system. And I guess between the 28 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:40,199 Speaker 1: money and the injury, the Raiders in this new era, 29 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: with John Spytech at GM and Pete Carroll at head coach, 30 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: decided this guy just isn't worth it, which is pretty 31 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: surprising for a guy who was a top ten defensive 32 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: tackle really when they brought him into Las Vegas. But 33 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: obviously the injury has really changed his career. He was 34 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: only able to play five game for the Raiders. The 35 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: money situation is going to be done in the court system, 36 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: but it really leaves the Raiders in an interesting spot. 37 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: They are putting a ton of dead money onto their 38 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: cap this year, basically taking the pain of all that 39 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 1: money this year and saying it's not even worth keeping. 40 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 1: Christian Wilkins will eat the money this year. And try 41 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: to be free of everything a year from now. But 42 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: very disappointing for them because it's not like it helps 43 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:34,119 Speaker 1: their cap situation. It actually raises their salary cap situation. 44 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: And this is one thing you can do with an 45 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: excess of salary cap situation is eat it all now 46 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: and move it into the future. But man, if you 47 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: look at the Raiders roster at defensive tackle, it is 48 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 1: about as thin as any team in the entire NFL. 49 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 1: Adam Butler is their number one defensive tackle. After that, 50 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: it's really a question mark. Who is going to be 51 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: starting for this team, whether it's Lucky Foto I believe 52 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: is listed as the starter. 53 00:02:58,240 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 2: Right now, they have a rookie, you. 54 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 1: Know, third day pick, Tanka Hemingway. It's not great. They're 55 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 1: gonna have to maybe look at free agency. But I 56 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: think it's a sign of an organization Pete Carroll, John 57 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 1: Spytek who want their guys who are willing to take 58 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: a little short term pain. So maybe it makes sense 59 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: to take short term pain for a little long term game. 60 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 1: But man, it is hard to be optimistic about that 61 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: Raiders defensive line, especially in the middle. 62 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 2: Now, let's get to the rest of the show. 63 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're two decades into explaining 64 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: what DVOA is. I'm Greg Rosenthal, and yes we are 65 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: gonna have the originator of the stat on this show. 66 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: Throughout it is Aaron Shots of the FDN Football Almanac, 67 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: and Aaron, I have been like quoting DVA is just 68 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: sort of like a quick and dirty best way to 69 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: measure a team's overall efficiency for like two decades, and 70 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: at this point I feel like I should just stop 71 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: explaining what it means. But there is really no easy 72 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: way to explain what it means. 73 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 3: No there is. It measures the success, Okay, but every 74 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 3: play compared to a league average, adjusted for situation and opponent. 75 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 2: Okay, that's the short version. I've got to copy that. 76 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: But it's a very smart way, and I'm a simple 77 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: man to get where a team is where they're potentially going, 78 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: and we use it throughout the course of the season, 79 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: and of course Aaron uses it to write what, to 80 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: me is the best primer preview if you're going to 81 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: get one thing to get ready for the season. To me, 82 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: it is the FDN Football Almanac. If you've listened to 83 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: this show and around the NFL for a while used 84 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: to be called football outsiders, and I recommend everyone go 85 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: and get that. 86 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 2: And so I got it. 87 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: And what I thought we would do today, Aaron is 88 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,479 Speaker 1: just go through a handful of teams and we'll try 89 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: to pick ones that maybe we haven't talked about as 90 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 1: much on this show. And then we'll also pick ones 91 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: that just stuck out kind of for surprising projections. And 92 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 1: we'll start with the forty nine ers, who I noticed 93 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: in your projections and out in Vegas, you're basically looking 94 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: at a total rebound. You have the forty nine Ers 95 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 1: at projected for eleven point two wins, which is the 96 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 1: most in the NFC, it's the third most in the NFL. 97 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: You have them with a seventy nine point seven percent 98 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: chance to make the playoffs. And what really surprised me 99 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 1: was you have them almost two wins ahead of the 100 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: Cardinals and the Rams, who are very closely bunched behind them. 101 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 1: Give me kind of the statistical reasons why you guys 102 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: are so bullish on San Francisco. 103 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 3: First, I'll mention San Francisco is actually our sample chapter. 104 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 3: So if you want to see what the FTN Football 105 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 3: Almanac is about, you can go to FTN Fantasy Slash 106 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 3: Almanac and actually read the entire San Francisco chapter that 107 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 3: Brian Knowles wrote. The forty nine ers were better than 108 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 3: you think last year despite the injuries. They were fourteenth 109 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 3: in DVOA, despite leading the league in adjusted games lost 110 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 3: to injury, and they were fourteenth in part because their 111 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 3: special teams were really bad, which doesn't tend to carry 112 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 3: over from year to year. So offense and defense wise, 113 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 3: they were even better than that. They were the best 114 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 3: eleven loss team since nineteen seventy eight by DVOA. 115 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 2: That's a wild it's a wild time. 116 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 3: I realize you don't put a banner up for right. 117 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 2: It's a weird one. 118 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 3: As far as what they're gonna do this year, it 119 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 3: suggests good things now. 120 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: They obviously have questions to me more than anywhere on 121 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: the defensive line, like a lot of changes there. You're 122 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: counting on potentially three rookies to have pretty big roles 123 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: and a couple guys who haven't played, you know, at 124 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:09,119 Speaker 1: a particularly high level at defensive tackle. What is it though, 125 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: that makes them stand out in terms of having that 126 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: big of a projection other than the schedule, because the 127 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: rest of the NFC West on some level has a 128 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: similar schedule. What puts them like a couple wins ahead? 129 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 1: Is it just that tried and true Shanahan offense essentially 130 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: plus all the injury games that they missed a year ago. 131 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 3: That's a lot of it. And schedule wise, you know, 132 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 3: the NFC West has mostly the same schedule, but the 133 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 3: three games that are based on where you place in 134 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 3: the standings, it just because of which divisions. That is, 135 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 3: the forty nine ers is much easier than the other 136 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 3: three teams in the division. Defensive I mean again, they 137 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 3: were better than you think last year. Defensively they were thirteenth. 138 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 3: Offensively they were nine. So let's imagine that the defense, 139 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 3: right is healthier, but you've got rookies, guys left whatever 140 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 3: does about the same thing thirteen the offense. We're big 141 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 3: believers in Shanahan healthier. Again, on offense, they have McCaffrey 142 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 3: for most of the year, If they have Ayuk for 143 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 3: most of the year, although it does seem like he's 144 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 3: going to miss the beginning of the year, right, they 145 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 3: get a little bit better on offense. Let's say you 146 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 3: combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a 147 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 3: division champion. 148 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that the case against them and that 149 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: all makes sense to them. And I haven't decided whether 150 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: like they're going to be one of my playoff teams 151 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 1: or not, but i'd probably lean towards yes, and your 152 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: projections influence that sum that the case against them to 153 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: me would be okay. The two things on offense that 154 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: you feel like you can count on opposite the scheme 155 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 1: is Perdy, who I think is a good, young, improving quarterback, 156 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: and Kittle, who's still playing at a very high level. 157 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: After that, it gets pretty murky because County on Kristin 158 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: McCaffrey to just be healthy is a little murky. Ricky 159 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,559 Speaker 1: Piersall in his short career hasn't shown too much and 160 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: he has got some injury issues. Obviously, Deebo Samuel's gone 161 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: and wasn't playing at the same level. We don't really 162 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 1: know about Ayuk And every year forty nine Ers fans 163 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: look at their offensive line and they're like, why didn't 164 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: we invest more? 165 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 2: And it's kind of another season like that. 166 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 1: You feel great about Trent Williams, you feel great about 167 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 1: the youngster Dominic Pooney. 168 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 2: After that, it's pretty shaky. 169 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: If Trent Williams, for instance, were to miss some games 170 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:25,599 Speaker 1: this year like he has, you know at points the 171 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: last couple of years. I don't know if they have 172 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 1: a backup plan as much in place, and so I 173 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: get the projection. To me, they seem like, along with 174 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,959 Speaker 1: the Cowboys, who we might hit as well as one 175 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 1: of the highest variants teams in the league. You could 176 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 1: absolutely see a scenario where they are back there where 177 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan lives in the NFC Championship game, and I 178 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: think you could see a scenario where they're closer to 179 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 1: five hundred. 180 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 2: But one of the things I love about your alm 181 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:51,199 Speaker 2: in that. 182 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 1: Kid is it does point out things like, not only 183 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: were they not as bad as you remember a year ago, 184 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 1: Like man, they lost a lot of tight games to 185 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: really good tea until the injury wheels fell off. It 186 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: was like at the last second, and sometimes the emotion 187 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 1: of watching the season you do overrate that. 188 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 2: You guys are absolutely right. 189 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: They were losing the very good teams, They were very 190 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: close games, and really they probably weren't as bad as 191 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: they were a year ago. A lot of variants, though 192 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: I feel like they're not. Yeah, I feel like I 193 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 1: know more about the Rams at least. 194 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 3: I think about. Part of the variants is something you 195 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 3: alluded to a little bit with the offensive line. This 196 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 3: is a team with bad depth if they get hit 197 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 3: by a lot of injuries. Again, that's what they really 198 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,959 Speaker 3: lost when they lost guys this offseason, is they lost 199 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 3: a lot of their depth. Right, pierceall is no longer death, 200 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 3: He's now a starter. Right. Like defensively, they're going to 201 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 3: depend on rookies and they don't necessarily have good guys 202 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 3: behind them that if they have the injuries, I don't 203 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 3: know if they have the depth to be, you know, 204 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 3: five hundred for five or six weeks while they wait 205 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 3: for everybody to get healthy. Again. 206 00:10:58,000 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, that checks out. 207 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: I think it was interesting you had the Cardinals just 208 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: very slightly, but essentially you had the Cardinals and the 209 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: Rams at the same spot. And that that, you know, 210 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 1: is really supportive of our Cardinals love on this show 211 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: and I like hearing that. Let's go to the AFC South. 212 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 1: You have the Jaguars projected to win the division. It's 213 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 1: only by you know, half a game in your projections, 214 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 1: but you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have 215 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 1: them at a fifty four point seven percent chance to 216 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 1: make the playoffs. 217 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 2: What helped the Jaguars. 218 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: It was probably the most surprising, Maybe not the most surprising, 219 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: but it was up there with the most surprising division 220 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 1: winners over the Texans this year. 221 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 3: Well, the Texans. You have an issue that comes up 222 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 3: with a number of teams, which is defense is less 223 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 3: consistent from year to year than offense. So when you 224 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 3: have a team that was so good on defense and 225 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 3: not good on offense, which was the case with last 226 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 3: year's Texans, you expected it's more likely that the defense 227 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 3: comes back to the pack a little bit than that 228 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,839 Speaker 3: the offense improves, especially since they still have tons of 229 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 3: questions on their offensive line. With Jacksonville, we see a 230 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 3: defensive improvement. They were the lowest team in the league 231 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 3: in takeaways per drive last year, only four point seven 232 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 3: percent of drives ended with turnovers. That is something that 233 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 3: heavily regresses to the mean from year to year. They 234 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 3: were terrible against the run on third downs, better on 235 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 3: first downs. That's also something where first down run defense 236 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 3: tends to carry over more. Third downs are obviously really important, 237 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 3: but there's less of them, so the sample sizes and 238 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 3: is big. I think some of this is we had 239 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 3: to guess about Travis Hunter. Like, we give credit for 240 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 3: drafting defensive players in the first couple of rounds because 241 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 3: defensive players actually tend to have a more predictable effect 242 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 3: on the team than offensive players when you draft them. 243 00:12:57,320 --> 00:12:59,319 Speaker 3: Is Travis Hunter defensive player? Like that? 244 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 1: Know? 245 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 3: Does he count as an offensive player? Mean? 246 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 2: He counts us both? Why wouldn't he he count us both? 247 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 3: Right, we counted him as both. So if he's not 248 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 3: a big addition to the defense, then maybe we're overrating 249 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 3: their defense a little bit. Maybe their defense is below 250 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:19,199 Speaker 3: average and now they fall behind Houston. But on offense, 251 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,439 Speaker 3: I think we may be underplaying them. Listen, I'm one 252 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 3: of those people, and there's a lot of us out 253 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 3: there who still think the Trevor Lawrence has got it right. 254 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,559 Speaker 3: He just needs a coach to unlock it. And there 255 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 3: is a feeling like Liam Cohen can be that coach. 256 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 3: Brian Thomas Junior is so good having Travis Hunter now 257 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 3: as the second wide receiver. Yeah, there's questions about the 258 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 3: offensive live but Trevor Lawrence cod should still be good. 259 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 3: So this even if the defense doesn't live up to 260 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 3: our projection, I feel like the offense can be better 261 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 3: than our projection. 262 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: I agree with you on the offensive side. I never 263 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 1: thought i'd hear the day where Aaron Shottz uses the 264 00:13:56,160 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: word that a quarterback has it, you know, very analytically 265 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 1: sound there, And it's funny because I would push back 266 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: on that. For Trevor Larns, I think he's got everything 267 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: but it, and that's yeah. 268 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,319 Speaker 3: I mean I'm thinking, I guess I'm thinking more about 269 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 3: his natural abilities rather than instinct I guess when people 270 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:14,959 Speaker 3: say that someone has hits, they're thinking more instincts and 271 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 3: leaderskip shills, leadership skills, and I'm thinking more the arm. 272 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: Yes, I do think he has the talent to get 273 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 1: it done. I think in the right system he can 274 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: pop up. I think there is something, whether it's mentally, 275 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: whether it's just as simple as reading defenses and needing 276 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: more time in the NFL to kind of mature on 277 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: that front, or yeah, just that Jenna say qua that 278 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: you want out of your quarterback. 279 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 2: I don't think he's shown that yet. 280 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: And yet I can see the case for them on offense, 281 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: because immediately, if Travis Hunter is as good as I 282 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: personally think he is, I think that's up there with 283 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: the best wide receiver combinations in the league, and not 284 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: like the best young wide receiver combinations, just one of 285 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: the best wide receiver combinations. And then I think Liam 286 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: Cohen is going to be able to scheme up a 287 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: pretty good running game to support them as well. The 288 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: offensive line definitely has question marks, like we don't know 289 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: enough about Anthony Campanille, their defensive coordinator. But I see 290 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: the case there. Was surprised to see them over the Texans. 291 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 1: I was even more surprised, though, Aaron, to see the 292 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: optimism that you guys have for the Commanders. This was 293 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: probably the number one thing that stuck out to me 294 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: when I first opened The first thing I do is 295 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: check the projections. You have the Commanders at ten point 296 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 1: six wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles. 297 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: So you have the Commanders with a seventy four percent 298 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: chance to make the playoffs, a better chance to win 299 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: the NFC East over Philadelphia. It's the second best odds 300 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: in the NFC to make the Super Bowl. What is 301 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: it that your numbers are telling you about the Commanders? 302 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: Because for readers of your almanac, very often a team 303 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: that improves so much one year to the next, you 304 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 1: often expect a regression the next year, and you're kind 305 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: of predicting the opposite here. 306 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 3: This is a little abnormal. You're right, And also fourth 307 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 3: downs are going to regress. They were like possibly the 308 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 3: best fourth down team ever last year if you consider 309 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 3: how successful they were on fourth downs and how often 310 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 3: they went for it, And there's no way that that 311 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 3: continues again. But the system thinks that that is going 312 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 3: to be countered by the additions like Samuel and Laramie Tunsel. 313 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 3: And it doesn't necessarily think Daniels is going to get better, 314 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 3: but it doesn't think he's going to get worse. There 315 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 3: is an individual quarterback projection part of the team projections, 316 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 3: and it likes Daniels a lot, and it has The 317 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 3: defense was twenty third last year, going to improve a 318 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 3: little bit to be more like sixteenth or seventeen, which 319 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 3: I think they can do if Lattimore is healthy and 320 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 3: Trey Amos is good. And I know that there are 321 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 3: questions about who is going to exactly rush the passer 322 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 3: other than Frankie Louvu. But if they can put an 323 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 3: average defense out there with a very good offense, then 324 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 3: this is a pretty darn good team. And schedule again 325 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 3: plays a role. They have an easier schedule than the Eagles, 326 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 3: who liked the Texans. We think the defense was so 327 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 3: good last year and so important to what they did. 328 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 3: Even if it is still one of the best defenses 329 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 3: in the league, if it's not as good as it 330 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 3: was last year and they lost a lot of talent, 331 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:28,120 Speaker 3: the Eagles lost more veteran defensive talent than any other 332 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 3: team with the variable that I use for losing veteran talent. 333 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 3: If the defense is not quite as good as it 334 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 3: was last year, then the Eagles they're still one of 335 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 3: the top teams in the league, but in their own 336 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 3: division they have to fight with the Commanders, who we 337 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 3: also think are one of the top teams in the league. 338 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, you have them in your overall DVOA projections for 339 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 1: the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in 340 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 1: the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington 341 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 1: is at five. But that's interesting because to me and 342 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 1: the Eagles have a very high ceiling for the offense. 343 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:07,120 Speaker 1: But what your numbers are looking at and you still 344 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 1: have them in the top ten, you have them ninth. 345 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: Is that for so much of last season, really for 346 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 1: the last season and a half. The offense during the 347 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: regular season has been inconsistent. It's why Eagles fans are 348 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: frustrated with Jalen Hurts's quarterback rankings and all that sort 349 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: of stuff. But I'm I'm amazed that you have the 350 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 1: commanders so high, and I think I think it's something 351 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: commanders fans can put in their pocket and push back 352 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 1: against everyone who just naturally as analysts Aaron like, no 353 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 1: one wants to predict the same teams to make the 354 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: Final four or the Final eight every year, and when 355 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: you're looking at it from a year ago, like Washington 356 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 1: is the team, I think that the national media is 357 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,479 Speaker 1: just going to expect to fall off except for you. 358 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I understand that. And normally we absolutely believe 359 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 3: in the plexiglass principle, which is teams that significantly improve 360 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 3: from one year to the next tend to then take 361 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 3: a step back in year three. The fact that we 362 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 3: have the commanders going counter to that is counter to 363 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 3: what normally comes out of our projection systems. There's no 364 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 3: question about that. 365 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 1: And I was talking on our last show with Jordan 366 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: Rodriegan with Bridget Condon that, Yeah, something doesn't sit right 367 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 1: that We've had such elite consistency at the top of 368 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: the league really for the last couple of years. And really, 369 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:30,679 Speaker 1: if what you project to happen happens, which is the 370 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: forty nine ers who have been around but then rebounding 371 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 1: Philadelphia coming back to the pack quite a bit, we 372 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 1: will have a little bit of a shakeup. But man, 373 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: just seeing that four point four percent chance for Philadelphia 374 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl eighth or ninth, I think 375 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 1: you have them among all the teams that that's. 376 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 2: Pretty low on the list. Let's take a quick break. 377 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: We're going to come back with more teams that caught 378 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: my eye in terms of their two thousand and twenty 379 00:19:53,880 --> 00:20:07,679 Speaker 1: five projections. Back on NFL Daily, talking with Aaron Shotts, 380 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: who's in Worcester, Massachusetts, which I know you didn't grow up. 381 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,119 Speaker 2: In, Aaron, I don't believe no. I'm Sharon Massachusetts, right. 382 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 1: But used to kind of next, used to kind of 383 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: be the butt of jokes. But Worcester's on the comeback trail. 384 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:24,880 Speaker 1: What do you have to say about people that used 385 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: to call Worcester like the the armpit of Massachusetts. 386 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 3: We've got a good food scene here, it's coming back. 387 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 3: There's definitely been some really good restaurants to open up. 388 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 3: We have the Hanover Theater. There's like some life in Worcester. 389 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 3: There's no question of being listen. If I could afford it, 390 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 3: would I rather be in Boston. 391 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 2: Oh no, don't say that. 392 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 3: Good stuff happening here. 393 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 1: Don't say that. I know Wester's great. I only say 394 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: that because I think it's underrated. You got Holy Cross there. 395 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: Speaking of underrated, we've got the Raiders with your projections 396 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: getting eight point three wins, which is, you know, an 397 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 1: average team thirty eight point six percent chance of making 398 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: the playoffs this year according to your almanak, that is 399 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:06,880 Speaker 1: ahead of the Chargers. 400 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 2: I know Raiders fans will love that. 401 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 1: I think if you ask the average Raiders fan if 402 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 1: they would take that, like thirty nine percent chance of 403 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: making the playoffs and at least eight wins, I think 404 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: they would sign up for that in a heartbeat. I 405 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: was surprised, though, to see it Aarin, because of all 406 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 1: the questions on the defense. To me, the defense is 407 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: one big question mark. And yes, Pete Carroll is there, 408 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: but if you just look at total talent that you 409 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: know is going to be healthy, there's an argument you 410 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 1: know they are among the bottom five defenses in the league. 411 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:46,400 Speaker 1: What is it that your numbers liked about the Raiders. 412 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 3: I think we're expecting Wilkins and Koots to be back, 413 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 3: and those are big additions, right, I mean, if those 414 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 3: two guys are back, then they're in a good place. 415 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,120 Speaker 3: I will say, I feel like the the Raiders Chargers 416 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 3: thing is more about the Chargers being surprisingly low than 417 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 3: the Raiders being surprisingly high. We talk all the time 418 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 3: about teams with a high range of possibilities. I feel 419 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 3: like the Raiders have a low range of possibility. Inter 420 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,120 Speaker 3: I feel like, with Pete Carroll and Gino Smith around, 421 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 3: this team is not going five and twelve, but it 422 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 3: also really doesn't feel like they're going twelve and five. 423 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 2: I mean, I hope, I hope that you're right, Aaron. 424 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 2: I don't know. 425 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 1: I look at the Raiders just the overall talent level. 426 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 1: Where do they excel other than like young tight ends? 427 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,119 Speaker 1: And I like Pete Carroll, and I like Geno Sith 428 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 1: and I worry and I'm rooting for Gino Smith and 429 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: I'm rooting for the Raiders. Do worry that there's a 430 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: low range of outcomes that has them picking towards the 431 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: top of the draft. 432 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 3: But right, I think it's even worse is if it's 433 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 3: a low range of outcomes that has them picking fourteenth. Right, Like, 434 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 3: they miss the playoffs, they go eight to nine, they're better, 435 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 3: but they missed the playoffs. And Gino Smith is old 436 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:02,719 Speaker 3: and he is going to get old, and they do 437 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 3: need a young quarterback, right because what you know, we 438 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 3: think he's good this year, but he won't be as 439 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 3: good next year, and he won't be as good the 440 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,440 Speaker 3: year after that. They might now be in purgatory where 441 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 3: you know, there are supposed to be a lot of 442 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 3: good quarterbacks in next year's draft. So we'll see. But 443 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 3: maybe they can't get the quarterback that they need. 444 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 1: Man selflessly though, no, that is not the worst case 445 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 1: scenario them being like three and fourteen and me having 446 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 1: to eat it. 447 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 2: I just don't know. 448 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 3: I think Gino is good enough, They're not going to 449 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,719 Speaker 3: go three and fourteen. And there is talent. They added 450 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 3: some talent, Wilkins being back, Coot's being back. I think 451 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,199 Speaker 3: there are some good players on the offensive line. I 452 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 3: don't like this idea of starting Alex Kappa, but you know, 453 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 3: I mean, there's some good players The receivers are questionable, right, 454 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 3: it's mostly depending on two rookies. Jacoby Myers is a 455 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 3: night slot receiver, but he's no one idea of a 456 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 3: number one. But the number one is really Bowers. 457 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 2: Right. 458 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:59,399 Speaker 1: Although Jacoby Myers all he costs was three for thirty 459 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: nine and Bill Belichick wouldn't give them that contract a 460 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 1: few years ago. 461 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 3: And oh he's a great value. 462 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 1: That contract has aged very well. Wait, why do you 463 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 1: why do you think you have the Charger solo? By 464 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:09,920 Speaker 1: the way, while we're there, now we have. 465 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 3: Their defense taking a big step back, and there are 466 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 3: questions about the offense. Again, this is another team that 467 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 3: we're like, we don't know what the receiver situation is. 468 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 3: They're going to depend on a second round rookie, probably 469 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 3: to start Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired, 470 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,440 Speaker 3: and there's a lot of questions about their defense. Now, 471 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 3: what we may be is under playing the effect of 472 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 3: Jesse Minter, Right, because you were talking about what it's interesting, 473 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 3: why don't we have Washington improving so much? And then 474 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,439 Speaker 3: coming back to the pack, that is essentially what we 475 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 3: have with the Chargers defense. They improved so much. We 476 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 3: have them coming back to the pack. But what if 477 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 3: Minter is a really great coordinator, it can counteract that, 478 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 3: then they're going to be better than our projections. 479 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: Say, right, you're you're losing the idea of Joey Bosa, 480 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: who wasn't really Joey Bosa all the time. 481 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 2: But you're a little thinner there. You're losing Punaford. 482 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,399 Speaker 1: You got such great production out of Dayon Henley and 483 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: a couple mid to late rounds. 484 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 2: He still right cornerback. 485 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 3: Picks like ar Heep still was so good last year. 486 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: Cam Hart was very good for them too, and they're 487 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 1: both going to start Are they going to keep being 488 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: that good? There is something maybe just gonna have been 489 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 1: out there to the bowlt and everything, and there's something 490 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,239 Speaker 1: about Harbaugh and Mentor that make you believe that that 491 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:24,439 Speaker 1: part of it will stick. 492 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 2: But I'm curious to see it. 493 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: Two of the most talked about teams in the league, 494 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 1: the Cowboys and the Steelers, are quite low in your projections. 495 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 1: I've been talking about how I think the Cowboys have 496 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 1: a huge range of outcomes. You have both the Steelers 497 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point 498 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: seven wins each. You have them under thirty percent to 499 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 1: make the playoffs each you have the Cowboys closer to 500 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,400 Speaker 1: the Giants. Let's start actually with the Steelers though, out 501 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 1: of these two, what is it about this team which 502 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 1: has added a lot of juice in the offseason in 503 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 1: terms of DK Metcalf and obviously Aaron Rodgers. What is 504 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,639 Speaker 1: it about the Steelers with all the veteran talent that 505 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,479 Speaker 1: they do have on defense that your model is not liking. 506 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,919 Speaker 3: I mean, first of all, we may be not taking 507 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 3: into consideration the magic of Mike Tomlin. I'll fully admit 508 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin's ability to manage every team to nine and eight. 509 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 3: He is crazy. Part of it is Aaron Rodgers. Like 510 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers was bad last year. Aaron Rodgers is old 511 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 3: and was not good with the Jets, and the idea 512 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 3: that he's going to be good again with the Steelers 513 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 3: It's possible, but it doesn't seem likely. Yes, they have 514 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,439 Speaker 3: DK Metcalf, but they lost George Pickens. How much is 515 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 3: Metcalf really better than Pickens? And then it sees the 516 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 3: defense taking a step back. There are some older players 517 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 3: on defense. It is overall and older defense. I love, 518 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 3: you know, Cam Hayward, but can he continue to keep 519 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 3: playing at this level? You know, they added Darius Slay, 520 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,920 Speaker 3: but he's older. Like I think it sees the defense 521 00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 3: taking a little bit of a step back. 522 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense to me. 523 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: And yeah, your numbers, And it was one of the 524 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 1: reasons why I felt like I was going crazy because 525 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 1: the eye test was that Aaron Rodgers was not playing 526 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 1: well last year. If you watched each and every snap 527 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 1: and the raw stats in terms of yards and like 528 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 1: touchdowns and interceptions, like people were like, no, actually he 529 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 1: was okay. But your your metrics in terms of like 530 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 1: the efficiency kind of clocked that he was closer to 531 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:31,640 Speaker 1: where Russell Wilson and Justin Fields were playing last year 532 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,360 Speaker 1: in terms of efficiency, that he's not necessarily an upgrade 533 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,360 Speaker 1: at all. That he was getting a lot of cheap 534 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 1: yards like on third nine, not you know, like coming 535 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 1: up short of the sticks and not a guy who 536 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 1: was particularly effective. I'm surprised though, that your Cowboys projection 537 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 1: is so low with them getting Dak Prescott back, a 538 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 1: young guy. Yeah, young offensive line, which I think at 539 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 1: least there's a lot of draft capital there and there's 540 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 1: a lot of potential there. I think there is an 541 00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: outcome where they're a really good defensive line. Defensive line, Like, 542 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 1: what do you think went into that? 543 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you. It is a little bit 544 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 3: of a surprise that their offense doesn't rebound a little 545 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 3: bit more. You know, you have the new coach. All 546 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 3: other things being equal, when you have a new system, 547 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,719 Speaker 3: teams take a step back. You don't normally notice it 548 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,800 Speaker 3: because teams were bad and the effect of regression to 549 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 3: the mean is stronger than the effect of take a 550 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 3: little step back with new coaching. But there is you know, 551 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 3: and I mean, I will say subjectively separate from what 552 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 3: the system says. I'm not a Bride Schottenheimer guy as 553 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 3: far as him being the head coach and running the 554 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 3: offense as well. But no, I mean, listen, Dak Prescott 555 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 3: was an MVP candidate two years ago. We absolutely may 556 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 3: be underrating how important it is to get him back. 557 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 3: He didn't play that great last year, but he didn't 558 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,800 Speaker 3: play that great in like six games. It's not a 559 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 3: real sample size. 560 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 1: Right, and enough weapons I think for him with Pickens 561 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 1: there with Jake Ferguson, who I think is that it 562 00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 1: underrated tider. 563 00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 3: Ferguson was terrible last year by the list the quarterbacks 564 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 3: throwing him, but he wasn't very good with Prescott throwing 565 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 3: to him either, which again is probably small sample size 566 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 3: and he's better than that, but it is worth saying. 567 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 2: Absolutely fair. 568 00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 1: I'm actually glad you pointed that out. I don't know 569 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:14,800 Speaker 1: if we've got a Jake Ferguson conversation on this podcast 570 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: over the last year. You're right that he was not 571 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 1: the same guy. He falls into the bucket to me 572 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 1: of players that I used to think about when I 573 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 1: did fantasy. But I think it applies reality wise too. 574 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 1: If you have a young player who has shown a 575 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,760 Speaker 1: consistent level of high quality, he can get back to 576 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 1: that point. But you're absolutely right, and I think he 577 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 1: showed that in twenty twenty three, but he was not 578 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: that guy last year. So we'll see who he really 579 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,320 Speaker 1: is just before we go. I know I didn't mention 580 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,840 Speaker 1: this one to you. It does strike me looking at 581 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 1: your numbers that the Panthers are dead last, like five 582 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 1: and a half wins, under ten percent chance to make 583 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 1: the playoffs. There is this feeling of like they turned 584 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 1: a little bit of a corner last year, and then 585 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 1: your big brain and your big number is just here 586 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 1: to like pour a whole bunch of water that actually 587 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 1: know there's a chance they're picking first. 588 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 3: Overall, again, the turning the corner was not as good 589 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 3: as people seem to remember it being. But also I 590 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 3: know that this goes counter to what we think is intuitive, 591 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 3: But teams that improve in the second half of the season, 592 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 3: it's not an indicator that it's going to roll over 593 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 3: to the following season. I know we want to believe 594 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 3: improvement in the second half of the season means you're 595 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 3: going to be better the next season, especially with young players, 596 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 3: right and Bryce Young is still young quarterback, But it 597 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 3: really doesn't mean that. You need to look at the 598 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 3: whole year. And the whole year was pretty bad, especially 599 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,080 Speaker 3: the defense. There's nothing Bryce Young can do about that. 600 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 3: And they didn't really add much this offseason to the defense, 601 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,719 Speaker 3: and the defense was really bad and it's probably going 602 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 3: to be really bad again. That being said, they have hope. 603 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 3: I feel like the Saints are the worst team in 604 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 3: the league because they do not have hope, at least 605 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,440 Speaker 3: the Panthers. If you're a Panthers fan, you have hope. 606 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 3: You have more hope that I'm wrong than I think 607 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 3: like a Saints fan has. 608 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, you have the Saints projected to be like the 609 00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 1: thirtieth best team in the league. Part of that is 610 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,440 Speaker 1: scheduled too, that their schedule is a little easier than 611 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 1: the Panthers. But it raised a good point that almost 612 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 1: the easiest thing in the NFL to do is to 613 00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 1: go from two to five wins, Like, we don't need 614 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 1: to be giving too much of a pat on the 615 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 1: back to the Panthers to go from two to five wins. 616 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 1: They actually were outscored by more points last year than 617 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 1: they were in their two and fifteen season. I do 618 00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: think that they made an effort to really improve that defense, 619 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 1: and I do believe in the coaching a Giro Evro 620 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 1: a little more than what's shown up on the field overall, 621 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 1: So I'm a little more optimistic, but I think it 622 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 1: does make sense to apply a little bit of a caution. 623 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 1: And I do agree with the notion that the NFC South, 624 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 1: to me, is more separated than people realize. I think 625 00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 1: the Saints and the Panthers are kind of in a 626 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 1: bucket at the bottom. I think the bucks are kind 627 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,760 Speaker 1: of clearly on top, and that the Falcons are kind 628 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 1: of clearly in the middle of those groups, whereas Panthers 629 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 1: fans probably feel like they're a little more in the 630 00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 1: mix than you do. 631 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 3: At least, my ten year's chapter for Tampa Bay definitely 632 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 3: argues that we should take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seriously 633 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:20,760 Speaker 3: and not just think that they're a team that gets 634 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,080 Speaker 3: a buy into the tournament because of the division that 635 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 3: they play in. Yeah, there are still some people there 636 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 3: that played on a Super Bowl winning. 637 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 1: Team, right and stacked up some wins after that Super 638 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 1: Bowl win and always seem to be playing their best 639 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,160 Speaker 1: at the end of the season. And I think are 640 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 1: built the right way, which is with an outstanding office line. 641 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 2: Yes, and very good front office. 642 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 1: Who knows, someday, maybe shots they'll they'll finally take you 643 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 1: out of that office and put you into a front office. 644 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 1: But until then, you're going to be producing the best 645 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 1: preview almanac, whether it's a magazine or whatever. Now the 646 00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,640 Speaker 1: airport magazines like the fantasy magans are like fifteen bucks, 647 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 1: you might as well buy a book. Anyways, everyone check 648 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 1: out the FTN Football Almanac twenty twenty five. Just google 649 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 1: it or go to FTN Fantasy. You can absolutely find it. 650 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,240 Speaker 1: Get it online, get the hard copy, whatever you want 651 00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:17,800 Speaker 1: to get. Appreciate you, Aaron. 652 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on. 653 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 1: That is it for this week of shows, our first 654 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 1: week back doing daily shows on Sunday evening. 655 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 2: We're going to post it a little bit early. 656 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: Some of my favorite shows of the year are our 657 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 1: training camp shows where we collect all the nuggets and 658 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 1: the news items that most shows are just too lazy 659 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 1: or just don't care enough to do. So we're going 660 00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,320 Speaker 1: to go through each and every team with Nick Schuk, 661 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 1: starting with the AFC on Sunday night. 662 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,320 Speaker 2: When we're doing those types of shows, you know it. 663 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 2: Football is back.