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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go, throwing show. We're sitting up

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Speaker 2: to catch touch.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to

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Speaker 2: make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabaki you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: And welcome to another edition of the Action Network Podcast,

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Speaker 3: Week fourteen NFL Betting Edition. I am your host, Chris Raybon.

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Speaker 3: I'll be joined shortly by Stucky. Today's show, we're going

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Speaker 3: to be as usual, breaking down all the betting action

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Speaker 3: for this week fourteen. Slate our top six spread bets,

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Speaker 3: we'll cover those in the Sunday six pack, give you

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Speaker 3: our favorite total of the week, teaser pick, money line,

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Speaker 3: underdog parlay, and Survivor pool pick. Of course, as always,

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Speaker 3: we'll start by breaking down the Thursday night football game.

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Speaker 3: But before that, just a reminder to download the free

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Speaker 3: Action Network app for real time odds, box scores, and

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Speaker 3: the capability to track every bet that you make. Now

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Speaker 3: let's get right into our Thursday night football preview.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night football?

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Speaker 3: All right? This Thursday, once again, second week in a row,

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Speaker 3: we have both the Dallas Cowboys now at six and

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Speaker 3: six after losing to the Bills and the Chicago Bears.

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Speaker 3: It's also six and six after beating the Lions. Seventy

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Speaker 3: seven percent of the tickets eighty three percent of the

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Speaker 3: money on Dallas as a three point favorite, fifty nine

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Speaker 3: percent of the tickets, sixty four percent of the money

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Speaker 3: on the under, for a time total of forty three stuck.

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Speaker 3: How is your Thanksgiving? And what do you think of

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Speaker 3: this game?

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Speaker 2: Some brother, Happy holidays to all. It's another good weekend. Man,

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Speaker 2: Let's keep it rolling this week. Look, well, I'll dive

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Speaker 2: right into this game. I have a rant about Dallas

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Speaker 2: right now, man, I mean this team. It's this is

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Speaker 2: a matchup of two six and six teams, which is stunning.

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Speaker 2: One team averages six point seven yards per play. That's

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Speaker 2: best in the NFL. You want to go back since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and five and look at the teams who

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Speaker 2: have averaged six point seven yards per play, There's only

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Speaker 2: been four of them besides the Cowboys. If they finished there.

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Speaker 2: The twenty eleven Packers, the twenty eleven Saints, the twenty

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Speaker 2: eighteen Sheets last year, and the twenty sixteen Falcons. You

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Speaker 2: know what those teams win. It combined record wise, fifty

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Speaker 2: one and thirteen. They won eighty percent of their games.

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Speaker 2: None of them won fewer than eleven. The Packers went

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Speaker 2: fifteen to one. So and then meanwhile, you have the Bears,

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Speaker 2: who averaged almost two full yards less per play on offense,

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Speaker 2: and they have the same record at six and six.

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Speaker 2: The only offense that averages fewer yards for play than

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Speaker 2: the Bears the Jets. So why The question is why, Well,

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Speaker 2: this later to the season, when you're consistently underperforming your numbers,

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Speaker 2: that's when you start to look at the little things. Penalties.

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Speaker 2: Issue with the Cowboys turnovers. Their defense does not cause turnovers,

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Speaker 2: no havoc. I think they average one takeaway per game,

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Speaker 2: which is bottom five in the NFL. Coaching, we've seen,

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Speaker 2: some of the play calling, we've seen some of the

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Speaker 2: coaching decisions. Also special teams. That's a variable here that

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Speaker 2: you'll see with teams that are either underperforming or overperforming

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Speaker 2: late in the year. It's one of the reasons why

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Speaker 2: the Patriots consistently overperformed. Their special teams are usually elite.

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Speaker 2: Cowboys special teams have been a disaster, worse than the

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Speaker 2: NFL by most metrics. They're searching for a kicker now.

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Speaker 2: Their kick coverage unit has been horrendous. That's not good.

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Speaker 2: Against the Bears. The Bear special teams have been pretty

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Speaker 2: good despite their kicker issues because they have Patterson and

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Speaker 2: Tarik Cohen in the return game. The Cowboys can't return punts,

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Speaker 2: they can't return kicks. They're dead last and net punting

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Speaker 2: yard average. They lost a game on a block punt

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Speaker 2: and a punt block. I mean, so they're special teams

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Speaker 2: are a disaster. All these little things. And then on

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Speaker 2: top of that, they're getting off the slow starts every game,

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Speaker 2: and that I think goes back to the coaching. They're

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Speaker 2: under prepared. They don't come out and fire, and then

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Speaker 2: you have you have to have questions about this locker room.

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Speaker 2: Where is this team. I know that Amaro Cooper said

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Speaker 2: he wants to be a Cowboy next year, so assume

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Speaker 2: that means a Garrett's out. If you want to be

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Speaker 2: a Cowboy next year, that might be a little just

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Speaker 2: a hint there. But there was yelling outside the locker

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Speaker 2: room after the loss on Thanksgiving. So this line should

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Speaker 2: be five or six if you go just based on

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Speaker 2: the surface numbers. But you know, both teams have had

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Speaker 2: an equal amount of a weak prep because they played

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Speaker 2: on Thanksgiving and now Thursday night. But all these little things,

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Speaker 2: these slow starts, where's Dallas at? You know it's going

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Speaker 2: to be cold, maybe a little windy, and soldier field,

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Speaker 2: which is something to keep in mind. But because these

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Speaker 2: slow starts, because I think Dallas is so much better,

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Speaker 2: and we've seen this before, not necessarily this year, but

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Speaker 2: in the year's past, and we did see it on Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 2: Mitch Trubissy does come out, he's a little better in

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Speaker 2: the scripted portion. If the Bears come out here and

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Speaker 2: they take a lead, I'm gonna be jumping on the

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Speaker 2: Cowboys live. If not, I'm probably staying away from this

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Speaker 2: game for a lot of the reason as I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: because the line screams take Dallas. But all these little

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Speaker 2: things they keeps the reason that Dallas is six and

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Speaker 2: six and it keeps costing them games.

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Speaker 3: Ran over first of all, great ran. The one thing

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Speaker 3: I will say about the Cowboys, they're six and six.

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Speaker 3: I think I still look at their worst loss of

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Speaker 3: the seasons, as probably to the Jets. I think the

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Speaker 3: Bills are a better team than people think. I know,

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Speaker 3: you're after what I've seen. Now. Granted, they have a

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Speaker 3: lot of things that the Cowboys don't in turn, including

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Speaker 3: I think coaching is the big exceruse. I think they're

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Speaker 3: really good. But also it kind of goes under talked

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Speaker 3: about it. Little Josh Allen, he's not really turned it

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Speaker 3: all over anymore. Because if he's not turning all over,

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Speaker 3: they have a mobile quarterback that maybe you know, maybe

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Speaker 3: he's not a Lamar Jackson, but you know, mobile quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: just that are decent at throwing the football. We see

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Speaker 3: it week after week. Now they give you the best

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Speaker 3: defenses in the league, trouble, and then you know.

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Speaker 2: He's getting a little more accurate and a little more confident.

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Speaker 2: I have to get him credit. You have to give

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Speaker 2: credible credits to.

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Speaker 3: That loss just happened to come. You know, they're playing

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Speaker 3: f East this year, so they played the Patriots. They

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Speaker 3: play them close. Now, grant, it probably should have won

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Speaker 3: the game that was, you know, field goal kicker issues

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Speaker 3: to little things again, but two losses against I think

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Speaker 3: quality opponents, so right now, we're like you said, the

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Speaker 3: line probably should be five or six in favorite the Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: It's three. I think they're the pick. I think you know,

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Speaker 3: this seems like the type of game that reminds us

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Speaker 3: all what's so wrong with the Bears, because lately the

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Speaker 3: Bears have been kind of sliding under the radar. They

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Speaker 3: barely beat the Lions last week, to be honest, they

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Speaker 3: started off the game miserably, but against a much more

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Speaker 3: talent football team. You usually see that come out on

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Speaker 3: Thursdays with the favorites covering at a higher equipped and

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Speaker 3: almost in any other situation. I do think the Cowboys

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Speaker 3: are able to get right. I don't think that Bears

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Speaker 3: defense is quite as formidable as in the years pass

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Speaker 3: and I think the offense is not going to be

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Speaker 3: able to outscore the Cowboys. I mean the Cowboys of that.

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Speaker 3: You know, they've put up even against Buffalo with a

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Speaker 3: Dack end up with three hundred something, three hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty yards or something like that. Against Minnesota, they put

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Speaker 3: up a ton of yard. The Cowboys moved the ball.

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Speaker 3: I just don't think the Bears can score enough points,

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Speaker 3: so I would I would see wing the Cowboys we're

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Speaker 3: getting points that we wouldn't normally get.

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Speaker 2: If you want to just do back of the envelope

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Speaker 2: what a line should be, you should look at the

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Speaker 2: justin net yards were play, but you can just look

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Speaker 2: at net yards for play, which is the yards were

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Speaker 2: play you average on offense, you know, subtracted from the

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Speaker 2: yards for play you give up at your net yards

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Speaker 2: for play. The net yards were played differential between two teams.

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Speaker 2: You take that number, especially late in the year when

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Speaker 2: you have a good data set, and if you divide

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Speaker 2: it by some say point one to five, some say

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Speaker 2: point two zero. You know the Cowboys are number and

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Speaker 2: that would give you a ballpark of maybe where a

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Speaker 2: line should be. The Cowboys right now are second in

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Speaker 2: the NFL and net yards per play differential, they're at

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Speaker 2: one point three. That means they're gaining one point three

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Speaker 2: yard per play more on average than they're giving up.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's first, San Fran at one point four.

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Speaker 2: You know it's third, the Rams at point eight. So

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Speaker 2: I mean there are first and second and then down

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Speaker 2: here is third. The Bears are twenty third at negative

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Speaker 2: point three. I agree with you that the Cowboys are play.

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Speaker 2: But the one thing that I've seen consistently is they

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Speaker 2: do come out slow, and their defense has not been

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Speaker 2: good in the first quarter. The Bears defense has been

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Speaker 2: really good in the first quarter. I'm gonna be a

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Speaker 2: little greedy here, you know, if I have to pass

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Speaker 2: with Thresdon my game on fine, I'm gonna wait to

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Speaker 2: see if Dallas gets down a field goal, hopefully a

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Speaker 2: touchdown early, then I'll be jumping on them live.

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Speaker 3: They ended up losing the two quality opponents, you know,

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Speaker 3: back to back, and it's like, you know, it's got

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Speaker 3: it's got us down on them, and rightfully so. But

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Speaker 3: I think they'll bounce back.

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Speaker 2: If they don't bounce back, it doesn't matter because they

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Speaker 2: just stay in first place in the NFC East. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: let's get it.

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Speaker 3: Let's get into the coaches pep talk once again from

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Speaker 3: coach Pete Bell from the nineteen ninety four film Blue

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Speaker 3: Chips and dedicating this one right to Jason Garrett and

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Speaker 3: the Dallas Cowboys coaching staff.

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Speaker 2: This is by far the worst team that has ever

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Speaker 2: sat in this locker room. Dude, not for locker room.

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Speaker 3: You should be playing without uniform.

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Speaker 2: There's not one of you, not one of you that's

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Speaker 2: learned to how to win man. Our producer Matt loves

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Speaker 2: blue ships. By the way, I know this is like

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Speaker 2: every week. I'm like, this is we should rename the

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Speaker 2: segment of this the blue Chips.

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Speaker 3: Cliff take No, Matt, I don't know what do to

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Speaker 3: Paul this arter bull trap?

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Speaker 2: All right to your airbite?

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Speaker 3: Do you understand by that wraps it up for the

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Speaker 3: Thursday night football preview. Now let's get into the main event,

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Speaker 3: the Sunday six pack Thursday for action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: Well, last week four to three edge for me back?

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Speaker 2: Even what a race? So what did I said before

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Speaker 2: the year? I said my goal is I mean, obviously

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Speaker 2: you could just have a killer year. But I've never

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Speaker 2: done this with you before. But if I can get

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Speaker 2: three a week, then I think I'll be in good shape.

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Speaker 2: I'm actually at one point ahead of that at forty

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Speaker 2: through thirteen weeks, and so are you. So we're tired.

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Speaker 2: So it's been a hell of a race and it

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Speaker 2: should be a helple finish. And by the way, we're

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Speaker 2: gonna be doing this, we might have to change the format,

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Speaker 2: but we'll be recording, you know, because six is going

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Speaker 2: to be a lot during the divisional round, but we'll

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Speaker 2: have these podcasts all through the playoffs. So maybe it's

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Speaker 2: just like one or two picks. We'll come up with

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Speaker 2: an format, but this race will go all the way

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Speaker 2: to the super Bowl if it needs. If one of

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Speaker 2: us hasn't wrapped it up by.

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Speaker 1: That, we're tired.

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Speaker 3: I'm just glad that we're tired and we're actually doing well.

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Speaker 3: You know, forty out of I think what a possible

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Speaker 3: sixty five. That's a pretty good hit rate. So I'm

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Speaker 3: just glad we're not tied it like you know twenty Yeah, right,

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Speaker 3: my pay First this week, I am going with the

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Speaker 3: Washington Redskins plus thirteen, going to Lambow to face the

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Speaker 3: Green Bay Packers. I mean, first of all, anytime you

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Speaker 3: see a spread of plus thirteen, the first thing that

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Speaker 3: you should think that should just jump on your head

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Speaker 3: is too many points. It's almost, oh his, too many points.

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Speaker 3: And this just is regardless of you know, the matchup.

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Speaker 3: But in this particular instance, the Washington Redskins are a

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Speaker 3: team that wants to run the football. They want to

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Speaker 3: shorten games. Ever since interim coach Bill Callahan took over

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Speaker 3: for Jay Gruden, they're one of the most run heavy

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Speaker 3: teams in the league. They've been better in past defense.

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Speaker 3: They had the one bad game against the Jets, but

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Speaker 3: they are up to number eleven overall in early down

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Speaker 3: pass success rate on defense, and that's number two in

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Speaker 3: the league over the span since Bill Callahan took over. So,

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Speaker 3: you know, part of it again is that they're shortening games,

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Speaker 3: so they're not seeing a ton straight up you know,

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Speaker 3: first and second downs on defense as they would have before.

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Speaker 3: But they're playing better in the past game. Green Bay

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Speaker 3: Packers are, you know, a team that they're a decently

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Speaker 3: good team in all phases, but thirteen points is a

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Speaker 3: lot of points. I think last week, you know, going

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Speaker 3: on the road against the Giants six and a half,

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Speaker 3: he felt comfortable about that. But thirteen is a little

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Speaker 3: much for this Packers team that they're kind of up

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Speaker 3: and down in the past game. You know, they beat

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Speaker 3: the really bad defenses, but they struggle sometimes against average

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Speaker 3: or worse ones. Same thing in the run game. Aaron

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Speaker 3: Jones hasn't been as consistent in a while. They really

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Speaker 3: have one receiver, DeVante Adams, and that's it was our

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Speaker 3: you know steps up here there, Jimmy grahmmon is broken,

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Speaker 3: but overall, it's just too many points for me in

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Speaker 3: what projects to be a low scoring game. And to

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Speaker 3: that end, if you look at our bet leant data,

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Speaker 3: road underdogs plus eleven or more with a total of

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Speaker 3: forty six or less, which this total is down at

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Speaker 3: forty one and a half, those teams have gone one

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Speaker 3: twenty nine, eighty three and one fifty eight percent against

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Speaker 3: the spread since two thousand and three. And that again,

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Speaker 3: that's just because it's really tough to separate by a

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Speaker 3: large margin in this kind of football game.

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Speaker 2: Lower scoring game points come more to premium, harder for

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Speaker 2: a larger favorite to cover. For those college football fans,

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Speaker 2: it's similar to, you know, triple option. When you have

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Speaker 2: a triple option team that just drains the clock, you

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Speaker 2: know they're bad as favorites, great as underdogs. I agree

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Speaker 2: with you. I'll get to my first pick, but this

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Speaker 2: is going to be my second pick. Let me go

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Speaker 2: back to net yards per play, you know, a measurement

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Speaker 2: of your yards to play that you gain and the

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Speaker 2: yards play you give up. The Redskins are like twenty

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Speaker 2: fourth in the league. The Packers are twenty seventh, So

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Speaker 2: from a net yards for play perspective, the Redskins have

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Speaker 2: been better than the Packers. Now that doesn't tell the

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Speaker 2: whole story, because you have Aaron Rodgers. They're great on

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Speaker 2: third down, they're great in the red zone. It doesn't

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Speaker 2: tell the whole story. But this Packers team has been fortunate.

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Speaker 2: If they're my only future and required by contract to

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Speaker 2: say that in every podcast. And I like their pass defense,

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Speaker 2: I like their edge rushing, and you have Aaron Rodgers,

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Speaker 2: and if you get into the dance with Aaron Rodgers,

290
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Speaker 2: you're gonna have a chance, which is all I wanted

291
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Speaker 2: with that future. But the run defense is really weak,

292
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Speaker 2: and that's what the Redskins are going to be able

293
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Speaker 2: to exploit here. I completely agree with you with Peterson

294
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Speaker 2: and geist back is huge. He just brings another dynamic

295
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Speaker 2: piece to that. And if you look at a lot

296
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Speaker 2: of the advanced metrics yards after contact, elusive rating, some

297
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Speaker 2: of the metrics on PFF and other sites, he's top

298
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Speaker 2: of the league. Now, the sample size isn't great, but

299
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Speaker 2: he's fully up the game speed. He went nuts against Carolina,

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Speaker 2: another poor run defense, but I like the interior of

301
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Speaker 2: that Washington offensive line. Both of their guards, their center,

302
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Speaker 2: very underrated center. So I think they're gonna be able

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Speaker 2: get a push against this Green Bay defense that's really

304
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Speaker 2: soft in the middle. And it's just Blake Martinez wasn't

305
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Speaker 2: playing that well against the run. And then they like

306
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Speaker 2: to play a lot of heavy DIN A lot of

307
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Speaker 2: times they won't even have another linebacker, and they don't

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Speaker 2: have great linebacker depth to begin with. They usually you're

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Speaker 2: playing on the field an extra safety, and Ibraham Campbell

310
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Speaker 2: is like an a linebacker. They're a big DIN package

311
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Speaker 2: and they're just not good against the run. And that

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Speaker 2: is what Washington's gonna do with Bill Callahan. They're also

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Speaker 2: a snail teaser for my total play. Washington's slowest team

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Speaker 2: in the NFL by far. So they're gonna just grind

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Speaker 2: this game to a halt. They're gonna pound the rock.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna try and keep Rogers on the sideline, which

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00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,680
Speaker 2: is all smart and so this game has like twenty

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Speaker 2: three fourteen written all over it.

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Speaker 3: For the Redskins. We talked about this. Every game they've

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Speaker 3: played has been low scoring and close, except that one

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Speaker 3: outlier Jets game. I mean, it's like even Minnesota, like

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Speaker 3: they were big underdogs. They were I think nineteen to nine.

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Speaker 3: You know, every once in a while though, just weigh

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Speaker 3: an egg. But the odds are that they're to keep

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Speaker 3: it close.

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Speaker 2: And I'm just gonna throw it out there that I

327
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Speaker 2: had like the under in that game too. They have

328
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Speaker 2: a great punter in trustway. I think they lead to

329
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Speaker 2: lead the NFL and net punting, So that's huge when

330
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Speaker 2: you're just run, run, run, run, flip the field, make

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Speaker 2: them grind more clock. That just helps with the under

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Speaker 2: and the dog in a low scoring game when you

333
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Speaker 2: have a great punter. Sorry, I had to give it

334
00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,280
Speaker 2: some punter love out there, all right. For my first pick,

335
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Speaker 2: I don't think this is much of a surprise if

336
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Speaker 2: you watched my Twitter, I'm going with the lost Angelus Rams.

337
00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,600
Speaker 2: So on the surface, this game is it's the ten

338
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,360
Speaker 2: to two Seahawks against the seven and five Rams. Look

339
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,280
Speaker 2: stay on trend in net yards per play, Rams are

340
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Speaker 2: third in the NFL. Point eight. Seyawks are basically about even.

341
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Speaker 2: I think they're positive point two right in the middle

342
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Speaker 2: of the field. But this team has been one of

343
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Speaker 2: the luckiest teams in NFL history. I mean, they're ten

344
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Speaker 2: and two, they have an average scoring margin of three points.

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Speaker 2: No team in NFL history has won ten of their

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Speaker 2: first twelve games with the scoring margin that low. Nine

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Speaker 2: of their ten wins have come by one possession. They're

348
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Speaker 2: five to zero games decided by four points or less.

349
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Speaker 2: And they played a number of backups too. That's the

350
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Speaker 2: craziest part. They played Matt Shab the Steelers when Ben

351
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 2: went down, I mean, you name it. And then even

352
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,440
Speaker 2: against the Eagles, all the receivers were out, their offensive

353
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Speaker 2: line moving out. Against the Vikings, Cook goes out, Feeland

354
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,720
Speaker 2: doesn't play. Their tackle gets so I mean the turnovers.

355
00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,640
Speaker 2: They covered sixteen fumbles on defense, that's the most the NFL.

356
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:53,960
Speaker 2: So everything is breaking right for them and they're still

357
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,400
Speaker 2: winning these close games. Look, they're a good team. Seattle fans,

358
00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,200
Speaker 2: you know, get their panties in a bunch on Twitter

359
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Speaker 2: and say you're We're not. We're you saying that we're

360
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 2: we sucked. No, I think that you suck relative to

361
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,600
Speaker 2: what the market thinks. That's all I care about. You're

362
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,800
Speaker 2: a playoff team. Russell Wilson is in MVP discussion. The

363
00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 2: receiving corps has gotten better, but this is a great

364
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,640
Speaker 2: matchup for a Rams temn situational spot look revenge from

365
00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:17,400
Speaker 2: earlier in the year. They have an extra day of

366
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,680
Speaker 2: prep here Seattle going on the road after Monday night game.

367
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:24,200
Speaker 2: The Rams run defense is really good and their offense.

368
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Speaker 2: I said it last time. When the Rams play this,

369
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 2: their offense just shreds, shreds this Seattle defense every time

370
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,160
Speaker 2: they played because of the scheme and what Carol plays

371
00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 2: the last four times they've played, the last one being

372
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,120
Speaker 2: in Seattle when zero line missed a forty four yard

373
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Speaker 2: field goal to win it as time expired. Another lucky

374
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Speaker 2: thing that happened for the Seawks this year. They scored

375
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Speaker 2: twenty nine points. That was the fewest they've scored in

376
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Speaker 2: the last four meetings. They've averaged I think thirty five

377
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Speaker 2: points per game, maybe even a little more thirty five

378
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:50,960
Speaker 2: to thirty six. I mean they put up thirty five

379
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,000
Speaker 2: forty thirty eight. Seattle doesn't get a ton of pressure.

380
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,040
Speaker 2: Goff is comfortable against Seattle, So look for Cooper Cup

381
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,200
Speaker 2: in the slot. This is a great slot match up

382
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:01,520
Speaker 2: for Cup. They're gonna be able to run it a

383
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:03,400
Speaker 2: little bit on Seattle and on the other side of

384
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,400
Speaker 2: the ball with Hunt in the middle, I think they're

385
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,439
Speaker 2: gonna be able to get pressure. This is just a

386
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,960
Speaker 2: great matchup, a great situational spot for the Rams. I

387
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 2: have the Rams as a three point favorite here, so

388
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,919
Speaker 2: when I saw plus one, I jumped all over it.

389
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:19,399
Speaker 2: And this luck is just not going to continue forever

390
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:21,919
Speaker 2: with Seattle, and if it does, I'm willing to pay

391
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 2: to pay for it in this spot here.

392
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Speaker 3: From just our competition perspective, anytime you bet against Russell

393
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 3: Wilson as your two point play, that makes me happy

394
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,399
Speaker 3: because I agree with you. I think the Rams should

395
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,520
Speaker 3: be able to take care of the Seattle team. But

396
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 3: it's just ridiculous. It's like, like you said, Seattle just

397
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 3: wins these games. I think the Biggs mismatch. The thing

398
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:44,160
Speaker 3: that I'll worry about here for Seattle is you kind

399
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 3: of hit on it. Joey Hunt in the middle.

400
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, Donald is gonna eat Yeah.

401
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,639
Speaker 3: Replacing Justin Britt who went down with a torn aco

402
00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 3: Hunt has been really bad. And it's crazy because it

403
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:56,800
Speaker 3: hasn't quite hurt them as much as you think. I mean,

404
00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,280
Speaker 3: he's he's been the thirty fifth rank center in the league.

405
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,479
Speaker 3: His PFF grade is a forty nine point four, so

406
00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 3: it's been really bad.

407
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 2: But you know where it did hurt them, but like

408
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 2: not from a game perspective, because the Eagles entire team

409
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 2: was out and Seattle ran a trick play for a touchdown,

410
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,679
Speaker 2: but Fletcher Cox was dominating that line of scrimmage and

411
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,440
Speaker 2: blowing up the pocket. Fletcher Cox is an all pro

412
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:20,480
Speaker 2: cower player, not as good as Aaron Donald, but you

413
00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 2: could see Cox at his best game of the year.

414
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 2: He was blowing up Hunt.

415
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 3: If Seattle were to win this game, in this one,

416
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,399
Speaker 3: because it doesn't look Tyro Rockett doesn't look completely healthy.

417
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,359
Speaker 3: They've had a kind of scrape together offense with Jacob

418
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:36,040
Speaker 3: Hollister and the other receivers. I think if Seattle were

419
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 3: to win this game with their probably what you probably

420
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:43,080
Speaker 3: would see is George Fant report eligibu and just try

421
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:44,399
Speaker 3: to run it on the edges or something like that.

422
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 3: Crazy enough, Jalen Ramsey is their worst graded corner in PFF.

423
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 3: Troy Hill is number twelve, and the they have a

424
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,399
Speaker 3: solid slot corner, And yeah, he's number ten, and that's

425
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 3: second year in a row. He's been up graded out

426
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,800
Speaker 3: really well in PFF and Troy he'll coming on too.

427
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:02,919
Speaker 3: So I'm not in the business of betting against Russ.

428
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,920
Speaker 3: I get what you're saying, though, but hopefully they come

429
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 3: through for me and sling us some two points here. Okay,

430
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go with the Tampa Bay Bucks and

431
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,600
Speaker 3: they're at home. They're minus three against the Indianapolis Coats,

432
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,359
Speaker 3: and I just like the matchup for Tampa Bay and

433
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 3: this spot. I think at this point these two teams

434
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 3: are at worst even. I think Tampa Bay actually might

435
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 3: be a little better. And that's because Indianapolis, this is

436
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,119
Speaker 3: not the same Coats that were looking promising early in

437
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:33,680
Speaker 3: the year, and you say, hey, just maybe they could

438
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 3: kind of sneak into the playoffs again without luck and

439
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,719
Speaker 3: all these you know, all these guys, but it's starting

440
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 3: to fall apart. T Y Hilton looks like he's going

441
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 3: to be out again. He says he's not even sure

442
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 3: if he's going to return this season. Okay, fine, you

443
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 3: can run the football. That's how the Coats kind of

444
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 3: stay in game, That's how the Colts kind of hang

445
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 3: around with teams. But you're going against the one team

446
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 3: in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that you don't want to

447
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 3: be kind of a run first team against because they

448
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 3: are number one in the league. In run defense by

449
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 3: d v O ay by a lot of different metrics.

450
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 3: They're also number two in the league in DVOA at

451
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 3: defending passes out of the backfield. And that's just trouble

452
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 3: for the coach because it's not even like they have

453
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,159
Speaker 3: the two tight ends. Now they're down to just Jack Doyle.

454
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 3: You know, they have some other guys Ross Travis and

455
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 3: Wenzel and Molei Cox, but it's really just Jack Doyle

456
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 3: out there. So they're playing three receiver sets but without

457
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 3: t Y. Paris Campbell might be back, but they have

458
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,400
Speaker 3: no alpha dog. If if you want to double Zach

459
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,840
Speaker 3: Pascal or just take Zach Pascal out of the game,

460
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 3: you can. So now you look at it and say, okay,

461
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 3: even if Jameis Winston spots them, you know, a turnover

462
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 3: to or or pick six whatever the colt, it's gonna

463
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 3: be tough for the coach to play with the lead

464
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 3: because they you know, they're going up against a tough

465
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,360
Speaker 3: run defense. When you if it goes the other way

466
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 3: where the coach they don't really have the defensive firepower

467
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 3: to stop Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both. So you know,

468
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 3: on the other side, it's you know, if they get down,

469
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 3: you worry about them on offense because they're a team

470
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 3: that wants to run and it is really devoid of

471
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,239
Speaker 3: any pass catcher. Jacoby Brissette was indecisive out there, and

472
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 3: that's really just because guys aren't getting open. I mean,

473
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 3: Tom Brady looks in decisive too, when when isis aren't

474
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 3: getting open. So this is just a fade of the

475
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 3: Colts at this point in the year, when you know

476
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 3: attrition has kind of taken over. Have a lot of

477
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 3: respect for Frank, right, but I just think the Bucks

478
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 3: are a better football team at this point.

479
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 2: I mean, look, you everyone last me for special teams,

480
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 2: but they make a difference. And how many times do

481
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,040
Speaker 2: I need to yell about Adam Vinitarian How many games

482
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: do you need to cost the Colts Now? I saw

483
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 2: he's limited today and they signed Chase McLaughlin, the forty

484
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 2: nine ers ticker they used, so maybe they're using McLaughlan.

485
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 2: He was seven of eight in Robbie Gold's absence. But

486
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,120
Speaker 2: they still have Vinitaria. I don't know why, just because

487
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 2: he used to make kicks, But you're right, I mean,

488
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,679
Speaker 2: this is it's an interesting matchup from the standpoint that

489
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 2: the Colts offensive line is dominant and they can run

490
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,959
Speaker 2: the ball. It doesn't matter who's back there, Williams, Wilkins,

491
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 2: mack It. It doesn't really matter with their offensive line,

492
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 2: and they're still gonna be able to run the ball

493
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,400
Speaker 2: against teams I can't defend the run. Well. Now they're

494
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 2: going up against a really good and stout defensive line

495
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 2: that just has bodies. And that's why the Bucks are

496
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 2: so good against the rum. You have Sue and Vita

497
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 2: Bay and they're just eating bodies. So Ken Indianapolis moved

498
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 2: the ball through the air against a really weak Buck secondary.

499
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 2: And I don't know. I mean, who's who's left If

500
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 2: if Rogers, hilt been Campbells are done, who is their slot.

501
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 2: I don't even know who their slot would be if

502
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 2: they come up with three.

503
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 1: Oh oh oh.

504
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 3: By the way, by the way, not even Chester Rogers,

505
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 3: who is playing their slot, is also out for the year.

506
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 3: And we talked about special teams. He was also their

507
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 3: primary return man. This is one thing, you know, as

508
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 3: we get to this point in the season, a lot

509
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: of us have these kind of preconceived notions. Some of

510
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 3: them are built from early in the year. Some of

511
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 3: them are broke from last year. Tampa Bay right now

512
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,640
Speaker 3: up to number nine overall in defensive DVA, number nine,

513
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 3: and that's on the strength of that Rundee. But still

514
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 3: no one thinks of Tampa Bay as a top ten

515
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 3: defense inefficiency schedule adjusted, No less Todd Bolts.

516
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: He's done a great job there. But but who would

517
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 2: be I promb myself of knowing rosters. I don't even

518
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:54,400
Speaker 2: know who the slot would be.

519
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 3: So last week they are three wide outs where Pascal

520
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 3: Marcus Johnson and then once Rogers went down on Ashton Doolan.

521
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 3: They also signed Chad Williams, de former Arizona cardinal, who

522
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 3: doesn't really catch footballs when they're thrown to him. They're

523
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 3: kind of banking on Campbell coming back. He's been practicing,

524
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 3: so he'll probably go just out of desperation.

525
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 2: Man, I didn't know anything about Ashton Doolan. I just

526
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: looked him up. He went to Malone University. I don't

527
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 2: even know what Malone University is, all right, Anyway, who's

528
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,199
Speaker 2: going to fuck up more in this game? Is it

529
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 2: Winston or Vittary. But you have the more talented weapons

530
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 2: and the better offense, and it's a good matchup for

531
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 2: the Bucks defense, So I don't disagree with you there.

532
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 2: Second pick, I'm going with the Raiders. I am buying

533
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 2: low here on the Raiders after they lost what their

534
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 2: last two games by combined seventy points or something like that.

535
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 2: Although if you take a look at the box score

536
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 2: last week and against the Chiefs, Carr was basically playing

537
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: for Kansas City in that game. Kansas City, I mean

538
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 2: they won by forty Kansas City. In that game, they

539
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 2: were out gained by like one hundred yards Kansas City

540
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: I'm talking about, and they from a yards per play perspective,

541
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 2: the Raiders were five point eight and the Chiefs were

542
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 2: four point four, So very misleading box score. By the way,

543
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 2: both of these quarterbacks are three and oh. Tannehill and

544
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 2: Car both three and oh against the opposing team with

545
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 2: six touchdowns and one pick. Just thought that was really

546
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 2: odd to see. But look, the Titans are playing well

547
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 2: and Tannehill's playing really well. One of the things that

548
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 2: they're doing extremely well, which I think is there's gonna

549
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 2: be some aggression here, is their red zone offense. They

550
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 2: are number the Tennessee Titans are number one in the

551
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 2: NFL in touchdown percentage in the red zone. Number one,

552
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 2: they're like seventy eight percent, and under Tannehill they're at

553
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 2: like ninety five percent in six games since he took over,

554
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 2: and then in those six games are arougely close to

555
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 2: thirty points per game, almost two touchdowns more than when

556
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 2: Marita started in his six games. But there's somehe It's

557
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 2: not like I look at this Tennessee offense and say, yeah,

558
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 2: there's a reason why this this team would be so

559
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 2: great in the red zone. There's not so. And a

560
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: lot of those things are regressing, especially in the red zones.

561
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 2: So I don't think they're going to be able to

562
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 2: keep that up. And I also think on the other side,

563
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 2: if you look at Tennessee, no matter how well Tennhell

564
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 2: was playing, and I like their defense, just look they're

565
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 2: seven and five. But last week the Colts are lining

566
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: up for a field goal to go up twenty to seventeen,

567
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 2: and they get a block in return for a touch

568
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 2: of course, so easily could have lost it against the Bucks.

569
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,640
Speaker 2: If you recall, the Titans had a field goal blocked

570
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 2: and returned for a touchdown that was not called a touchdown.

571
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 2: They blew the whistle and the Titans ended up winning

572
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs. There was a field goal block that

573
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 2: all this crazy stuff happened at the end. These are

574
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 2: three games that have just everything possible went the Titans way.

575
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 2: This is still a team you know that lost sixteen

576
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 2: to nothing at Denver a month ago. I think Oakland

577
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 2: can have some success with their short passing game. It's

578
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 2: something that Tennessee struggles with tight ends backs out of

579
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 2: the backfield. Jacobs is going to get his I think

580
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 2: this line is crazy. I bought it the three, two

581
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 2: and a half whatever. These two teams, to me are

582
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 2: very average teams and rated about even. Raiders have been

583
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 2: good at home this year. I'm buying low on the

584
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 2: Raiders after their two last games, whether they're blown out

585
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 2: by forty points each and selling the Titans here, who

586
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 2: I do not think are as good as the market

587
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: is now starting to believe they are. Give me the

588
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 2: Raiders here at home as a short home dog.

589
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't know about that one. I mean,

590
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 3: and I'm you don't know about it.

591
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: I'm about to say.

592
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 3: With that being said, I think it was a couple

593
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 3: of weeks ago we were on this pod talking. You

594
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 3: said you were thinking about back in the Raiders. I

595
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 3: ended up taking the Jets, and I said the reason

596
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 3: was the Jets had a top top five run defense

597
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 3: and the Tights are another one.

598
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 2: Back to Jets with you, by the way, I ended

599
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:44,360
Speaker 2: up backing.

600
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 3: The Okay, nice, Yeah, so, but that's what worries me

601
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 3: is that the Raiders are facing another one of these

602
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 3: teams with a top five run defense. So I just

603
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 3: don't know if the Raiders have enough yere because Car

604
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 3: seems to be it's almost like they schemed them up

605
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 3: a good first few weeks and it's just it's been downhill.

606
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 3: And but on the other side, the Raiders are bottom

607
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 3: five run defense, and you said you had you know,

608
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 3: you don't know why the Titans are so good in

609
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 3: red zone. Derek Henry like team just don't want that work,

610
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 3: especially California teams this time of year. Dereck Henry is

611
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 3: number two in the league in yards after contact. I

612
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,880
Speaker 3: just I think that I think the Titans have enough here, man,

613
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 3: So I'd be scared about I'd be scared about hacking

614
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 3: the Raiders in the spot. To be completely honest, man,

615
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 3: I just think I just think they give it to

616
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 3: Henry uh, and and kind of run over them.

617
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 2: I hope that you're wrong on the Titans again.

618
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I usually am. So I mean take that disclaimer

619
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:39,120
Speaker 3: for what you will. For my last pick, this one

620
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 3: now it's now it's gonna get ugly because I went

621
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 3: with a plus thirteen Doug with my first pick. Okay,

622
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 3: uh doing it again for another pick Detroit plus thirteen

623
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 3: at Minnesota, and again just comes down to the fact

624
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 3: that it's too many points in another game that could

625
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 3: be well scoring. On one side, you have you have

626
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 3: David Bling blow to Kenny Galladay to start last week,

627
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 3: but not much after that. And the Lions have shown

628
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 3: us that they want to have that power run element

629
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 3: to their team. You know, they've gone through a bunch

630
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 3: of different street free agent backs settled on both Scarborough

631
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 3: who owned right you're giving him. He's given them decent

632
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 3: workout there, so I think they're gonna try to stick

633
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 3: with that. Another team I think kind of takes shape,

634
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 3: takes the form of the Redskins at this point. You

635
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 3: know they want to play in world scoring games. The

636
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 3: difference with the lines is you could actually see them

637
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 3: getting a late you know, back door cover or something

638
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 3: like that because Kenny Gallade and Marvin Jones are still

639
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 3: explosive football players, particularly Gallade averaging almost twenty yards of catch.

640
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 3: So like it from that perspective, like the fact that

641
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: we saw a team in Seattle that you're kind of

642
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 3: worried about, you know, their old line and how it

643
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 3: would hold up against against Minnesota, and they were able

644
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 3: to kind of bring in at tackle eligible play some

645
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 3: power football. Now they're on a short week. Looks like

646
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 3: Adam Thiehn might actually miss again. It looks like he

647
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 3: was gonna come back, and then he reportedly suffered a setback,

648
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 3: so we'll see about that. But Dalvin Cook also banged up,

649
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 3: probably going to play. But Minnesota is in a tough spot.

650
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: It just seems like a game where they're not going

651
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 3: to try to run up the score or you know,

652
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 3: throw the ball all around the yard. It seems more

653
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 3: like a game they just want to kind of escape

654
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 3: with a victory against a division opponent that that's kind

655
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 3: of down on their luck and move on. So I

656
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: like Detroit here. I just think it's too many points.

657
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 3: Another one that applies to this to these games with

658
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 3: a low total when it's forty six or below and

659
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 3: an underdog of eleven or more, hitting out of fifty

660
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 3: eight percentquip. That's basically what it comes down to, just

661
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 3: a fade of the overall line more than anything else.

662
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it. I mean, you also have

663
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 2: a Detroit team that is played on Thanksgiving, so extra

664
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 2: prep while you had Minnesota playout Monday night.

665
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 3: Yeah.

666
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 2: I mean that's three or four days of difference, and

667
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 2: you know Minnesota's out on the West coast and they're

668
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 2: coming back on Tuesday. Meanwhile, you have Detroit Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,

669
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 2: four extra days of preparation and rest. You know. The

670
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 2: one thing that gives me pause here is and by

671
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: the way, I've been yelling that other people have too,

672
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: but I've been on it for about a year, Zavia

673
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 2: Roads has washed. He was trying to blame his safeties.

674
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 2: That was just his coverage. Me up burnt. But on

675
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: the other side, I think the health, you know, Dalvin

676
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 2: Cook's health and feel and if they play. You know,

677
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,239
Speaker 2: Detroit does have some good corners, which is good when

678
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 2: you're playing Minnesota. The problem is, if Minnesota was fully healthy,

679
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 2: you're gonna get a lot of time to throw against

680
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 2: Detroit and they don't get a lot of pressure at all.

681
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 2: So that's the one thing that would give me pause.

682
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 2: If you have Blau who comes out here and shows that, hey,

683
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 2: it's the second start, it's on the road in the

684
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 2: hostile environment. So if he doesn't make any mistakes, I

685
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 2: think you're good. That's the one thing that would give

686
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: me pause. But I will say in your defense, Jeff,

687
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 2: I you know I played the lines when that line

688
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 2: moved up on Thanksgiving, and after watching Blow, I don't

689
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 2: think there's not much of a drop off between him

690
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 2: and Driscoll. Driscoll held the ball for so long. One

691
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 2: of the things I was impressed about, now that's just

692
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 2: one game, was Blou's pocket presence and he knew when

693
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 2: to throw it away, he knew when to bail. He

694
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 2: was feeling blitzes. There's some some quarterbacks have that just

695
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 2: never get it. I'm mitched risky, and so yeah, I

696
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 2: think that as long as he doesn't have a oh

697
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 2: my god, rookie the second start on the road game,

698
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 2: I think you should be good.

699
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 3: There.

700
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 2: For my third game, I'm going with a game I

701
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 2: wrestled with for a long time. But I'm picking the

702
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 2: Pats minus three here, and going into last week, I

703
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 2: wanted the Chiefs here and I thought I was going

704
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 2: to maybe catch four, especially if the Pats won in Houston.

705
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 2: I was on Houston. I've been fading the pass last

706
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 2: couple weeks. They've been in my number one pick against,

707
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 2: and it's worked because of their issues on offense. Of

708
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 2: the one stat I want to throw out here, because

709
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 2: I'm not a big trends guy, Brady is twenty nine

710
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 2: and three against the spread after a loss as an

711
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 2: underdog or a favorite under a touchdown. Twenty nine and

712
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 2: three against the spread, not straight up, it's just silly.

713
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 2: We saw it with the Eagles when they covered at

714
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 2: the Eagles last year. They're also dominant at home against

715
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: the spread. But I actually like the matchup for a

716
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 2: number of reasons. Kansas City's really struggling to run the

717
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 2: ball right now, and a lot of it's to do

718
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 2: with their offensive line. They still struggle to defend their run,

719
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 2: and these two teams, by the way, are very familiar

720
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 2: with other They played twice last year. Both games shattered.

721
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 2: I think it was like forty four to forty one

722
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 2: and forty to thirty four. The Patriots did some things

723
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 2: in that second meeting in Kansas City when they won that,

724
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to do here. Again. Their

725
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: strength of their team is their their pass defense. So

726
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 2: what they're gonna do and mccordy is I don't he's questionable.

727
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 2: But what they're gonna do is they're gonna play Jackson

728
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 2: on hill on Tyreek Hill. They tried to do that

729
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 2: with Gilmour in the first matchup and he'll had like

730
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 2: three touchdowns at seventeen thousand yards. Gilmore is one of

731
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 2: the best Corns NFL, but he can't cover hill. So

732
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 2: what they did is they'll put Jackson on hill, They'll

733
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: throw safety over top, They'll focus the game play on

734
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 2: stopping Kelsey over the middle of notice book Gilmore on

735
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 2: Walkins sometimes on Kelsey, which I think could have some success.

736
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: Like it's a Chief team that's struggling to run the ball,

737
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 2: because that's the key here because if you can kind

738
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 2: of scheme around stopping their pass. The one wild card

739
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: is Hardman. By the way, if Hardman comes in and

740
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 2: the speed, his speed factor, which they didn't have last year,

741
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 2: I just will throw that out there. But I do

742
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 2: think on the other side of the ball, not only

743
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 2: we just get this is just a spot you trust

744
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 2: the Patriots in historically, I mean, twenty nine to three.

745
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna be able to run the ball. Finally,

746
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 2: their offensive line is going to start to play better.

747
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 2: They've they've been healthy, and anyone could run in the

748
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 2: Chiefs anyone. So you're gonna see what they've done. You're

749
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 2: gonna see James White catch eight balls. You're gonna see

750
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 2: them run the ball a ton. You're gonna see Edelman

751
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: catch eleven balls over the middle when he always crushes

752
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. So I think that they're gonna be able

753
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 2: to do enough. And their pass defense that's to straighten

754
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: their team is good enough. And you know they've seen

755
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 2: the Chiefs enough over the last year that I trust

756
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: their staff as a three point home favorite in this

757
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 2: spot against the Chiefs. The game is so important for

758
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: many reasons because if the Chiefs get them at home,

759
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 2: it could be a different story in the playoffs. Look,

760
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 2: I've been on the fade the Patriots bandwagon for the

761
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 2: last few weeks. I'm jumping off now when everyone's saying

762
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 2: they're broken. Their offense still has tons of issues, but

763
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna get like a heavy run, throw

764
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 2: the backs quick passes because the Chiefs pass defense, especially

765
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 2: down the field, is be good. But that's not even

766
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: can't throw the ball down the field here fascinating chess

767
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 2: match when Kansas City has the ball. But really I'm

768
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: just trusting the staff and the spot and a discount

769
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 2: of number that would have been three and a half

770
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 2: or four had the Chiefs not one by forty last week,

771
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 2: really missed leading like I said, and had the Patriots

772
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 2: not look as bad as they did on national TV

773
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 2: against the Texans. So I'm with the Pats this week.

774
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 3: I think that's the right call. I'm surprised you didn't mention, though,

775
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 3: the Patriots field goal kicker or whack thereow that's true.

776
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:33,399
Speaker 3: Something interesting that you kind of know. His last game was. Yeah,

777
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 3: they lost to Houston, but something to think about going forward.

778
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 3: They started to have some success running the football out

779
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 3: of the shotgun this season. They are averaging zero point

780
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 3: four yards more running out of the shotgun than they

781
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 3: are under center. Now, granted it's not been good on

782
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,919
Speaker 3: either front. Three point eight out of the gun three

783
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 3: point four under center, but you can't really succeed averaging

784
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 3: three point four yards per carry under center when you

785
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 3: also can't pass the ball well. So I think it

786
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 3: is going to be important for them to maybe mix

787
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 3: it up. Maybe we see James White, maybe Burken mixes

788
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 3: in a little more. He's kind of a I think

789
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 3: Michelle is probably their worst shotgun back. I would agree.

790
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 3: I think that's kind of the game they're going to play.

791
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 3: They're gonna say, we need to run the ball on

792
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 3: Kansas City, that's their weakness, and we need to on

793
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 3: the other side, what Kansas City run the football. I

794
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 3: think overall, the Patriots do play good enough defense that

795
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,320
Speaker 3: you can't expect the Chief to score normal expectations. I

796
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 3: think the Patriots are kind of they're still figuring things out.

797
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 3: But three point home favorite. I don't hate it at all,

798
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 3: especially considering the spot. Like you said, all right, so

799
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 3: that does it For our Week fourteen Sunday six pack,

800
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 3: Stuck has the Rams, Raiders and Patriots. I have the

801
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 3: Redskins Lions in Tampa Bay Bucks. And before we get

802
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 3: into our favorite over under of the week, just want

803
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 3: to let you guys know that, as we've done for

804
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,720
Speaker 3: the past four weeks, we are running a new Fade

805
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 3: Revel promotion with our friends at points Bet Sportsbook. This week,

806
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 3: our colleague Darren Ravel is taking an euy Manning passing.

807
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 2: Props coming Lies, coming elas of Coming of the Cup.

808
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 3: Say Darren is taking under two hundred and forty nine

809
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 3: point five passing yards, and Points Bet is boosting the

810
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 3: odds on the over from minus one oh five to

811
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 3: plus one point twenty.

812
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: Personally, I think.

813
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 3: Their line is spot on. I actually have it in

814
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 3: my projections at two forty nine, so I would go

815
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 3: under by the half yard. But it's always fun to

816
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 3: fade Darren Ravel. So if you're interested in fading Ravel,

817
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 3: just follow the link in this episode description for more details.

818
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 3: Let's get right into our favorite over under of the week.

819
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 3: All right, stuck, I went. I went first with our

820
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 3: six packs, so you start us off with the overunder.

821
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 2: I mean already mentioned by I'm going Green Bay Washington under.

822
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 2: Washington's actually the slowest team the NFL. It's usually the

823
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 2: Chargers who are thirty first because Rivers snaps with one

824
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 2: second on the playclock every single stat but the Redskins

825
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 2: are slower. The Packers also aren't fast. They're outside the

826
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 2: top twenty. So I think you're just going to see

827
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 2: heavy run script from the Redskins as usual, They're just

828
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 2: going to be bleeding clock, and more importantly, they're gonna

829
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,439
Speaker 2: have success running the ball up the middle. I don't

830
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 2: think that they're going to be breaking as many runs

831
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 2: as you saw against Carolina, but they're going to have

832
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 2: sustained success which will keep the clock moving. By the way,

833
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 2: Jacksonville and Chargers are like thirtieth and thirty first in

834
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 2: pace and in place per second in neutral situations. Jacksonville

835
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: offense looks dead, Chargers defense is healthy. The Chargers are

836
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 2: a snail. That's another good underlook as well. But I'm

837
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 2: going with Green Bay Washington under for.

838
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 3: My big I'm going with the Bengals Browns under forty one.

839
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 3: This is just kind of a bet on how I

840
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 3: think this game will play out for Cleveland. I think

841
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 3: they're going to want to run the football at time.

842
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 3: Cincinnati's a little fast, They're paced on offense, especially with Dalton,

843
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 3: but if you look at them, they've been able to

844
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 3: play defense, play better defense as of late. If you

845
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 3: look at their last few games, they had this one

846
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 3: game in the last five where they ran into a train,

847
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 3: which is the Baltimore Ravens. Who scored forty nine. But

848
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 3: they play the Rams in London, they lose twenty four

849
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 3: to ten. They play the Raiders, they lose seventeen ten.

850
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 3: They play the Steelers, they lose sixteen ten. They play

851
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 3: the Jets with Dalton, they win twenty two to six.

852
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 3: I think the Browns are better than the Jets, but

853
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 3: I don't think that the Bengals are going to be

854
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 3: able to do much. I don't think the Browns are

855
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:33,919
Speaker 3: going to be able to do much for that matter.

856
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 3: They're like Baker Mayfield's not practice hasn't thrown yet as

857
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 3: we record this on Wednesday night, the receivers Wlandry and

858
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 3: Beckham both sitting out practice. So I just think it's

859
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 3: going to be one of those sloppy weeks where you

860
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 3: miss some practice time and you're gonna just kind of

861
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 3: want to run the ball if you're Cleveland and it's

862
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:50,919
Speaker 3: a divisional under a wait in a year, divisional under.

863
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 3: So yeah, like it for all those reasons, going under

864
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 3: forty one here. So now let's get into our weekly

865
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:57,280
Speaker 3: teaser segment.

866
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers all right?

867
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 3: For those unfamiliar, this is a where he's gonna pick

868
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 3: a standard six point two team teaser, which means you

869
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 3: get six extra points toward the spread for each of

870
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 3: your picks, and you get a slightly reduced payout when

871
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 3: you do this at sportsbooks. But it's it's definitely fun

872
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 3: and it's a it's a cool way to kind of

873
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 3: combine some bets. So stuck who you got this week

874
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 3: for your two team?

875
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 2: San Franz probably the best teaser piece on the board,

876
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 2: teasing them up to eight and a half. It's a

877
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 2: really it's a huge game two ten and two teams

878
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: in the NFC. I also really like the under there

879
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 2: under forty four and a half. I think the Sanfred

880
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 2: defensive line, by the way, could dominate because I mean

881
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 2: the Saints offensive line right now is missing some key pieces.

882
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 2: The San Fred defensive line is obviously elite. What they're

883
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 2: gonna have to do Breeze gets rid of the ball

884
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,359
Speaker 2: really quick. San Franz pass defen has been amazing all year.

885
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:49,919
Speaker 2: So what they're gonna have to do is they're gonna

886
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,399
Speaker 2: to bring in more two tight end sets. They're gonna

887
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 2: have to pound the ball. They're gonna have to go

888
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 2: more run heavy the other side of the ball. The

889
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 2: Saints have a really good run defense, and you know

890
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 2: Jimmy g and this hostile environment. I think you can

891
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 2: take Latimore, who's now healthy, you can put him on Sanders.

892
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,399
Speaker 2: It's just and it's such an important game where both

893
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 2: teams I think are going to play a little tighter

894
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 2: to the vest, and the Saints are just a very conservative,

895
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: slow moving offense, and I just don't think they're gonna

896
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 2: have a ton of success moving the ball. They're gonna

897
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 2: be worried about that San Franz defensive line. On the

898
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 2: other side of the ball. I don't think San Fran's

899
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 2: going to get their running game going as much as

900
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 2: they can against a lot of teams here in New Orleans.

901
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 2: This is like twenty seventeen, just like last weekend in Baltimore.

902
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 2: I think it's twenty seventeen. I'll give it to the Saints.

903
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 2: Wouldn't surprise me if the forty nine ers won. And

904
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 2: so I'm teasing sand fran what I think will be

905
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 2: a really good game in lower scoring than the market thinks.

906
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 2: And another good teaser piece is Oakland. But I'll throw in.

907
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 2: I'll throw it in with the Browns, teasing the Browns down.

908
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,439
Speaker 2: There's some injuries on the Browns, but I think now

909
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 2: dead line's come down from ten and a half to

910
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 2: eight and a half. Now that you're able to tease

911
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 2: that down from eight and a half to two and

912
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: a half across that field goal, I think the Browns

913
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 2: will get the win at home. So I'm gonna go

914
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 2: with Browns and the forty Niners.

915
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 3: Definitely agree on that. That kind of forty nine Ers

916
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 3: game out. We'll talk about them more in a second.

917
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 3: For my teaser piece, I'm going with the Arizona Cardinals,

918
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 3: who know showed last week. I don't know how much

919
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 3: of it had to do with Kyler Murray kind of

920
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 3: struggling through a hamstring injury. He did score a rushing touchdown,

921
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 3: so I think it was just Sean McVay coming a

922
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 3: really good game plan. Arizona still has issues on defense,

923
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 3: but going back to them in this spot up to

924
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 3: plus eight and a half here, Listen, I think I

925
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 3: have a lot of respect for what the Steelers are doing.

926
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 3: We always talk about how we love to bet Tom

927
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 3: win when he's an underdog, but now the Steelers are

928
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 3: road favorites. There's still Arizona still has the advantage at quarterback, here,

929
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 3: and they've been playing really good run defense over these

930
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 3: last few weeks, their number one in rush defense success

931
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 3: rate over the last five. Pittsburgh may have may have

932
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:47,919
Speaker 3: some trouble running the ball. They just you know, got

933
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 3: up for that Cleveland game, which obviously meant a lot

934
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 3: for a lot of different reasons to them. So I

935
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 3: just think it's a tough spot counting on Arizona to

936
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 3: kind of keep it in one possession even if the

937
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,879
Speaker 3: Steelers find the way yet again to win. So going

938
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 3: with them and then seettle Seahawks from a pick up

939
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 3: two plus six, just because I always talk about it,

940
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 3: man Russell Wilson. They always find a way. It's always

941
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,319
Speaker 3: a one possession game. So if I can tease them

942
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 3: up to six in a game, I think, you know,

943
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 3: cold could go either way. I'll take it. So going

944
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 3: with the cards in Seahawks here.

945
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a conundrum for me because I said

946
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 2: on Twitter before the year started, if I ever bet

947
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 2: on Cliff Kingsbury, I'll delete my account, and I haven't yet.

948
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 2: I've hated Cliff Kingsbury in college. It's inside joke, but

949
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 2: I still have it. But this is a Tomlin fate spot.

950
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 2: I meant yell about it all the time. It's why

951
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 2: I faded them in Sincy and why I played them

952
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 2: last week. Listen to these stats now, it makes so much.

953
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 2: The world is in harmony right now. Tomlin is a

954
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 2: road favored against a sub five hundred team fourteen twenty

955
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,280
Speaker 2: seven and one against the spread. That's thirty four point

956
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 2: seven percent. Thirty four point seven percent. All right, Tomlin

957
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 2: is an underdog in his career thirty four eighteen and

958
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 2: two against the spread. That's sixty five point three percent.

959
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 2: Those are exact reciprocals. Sixty five point three percent as

960
00:42:56,560 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 2: an underdog. And what's the opposite of that one minus

961
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 2: zero point sixty five three thirty four point seven that's

962
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,240
Speaker 2: what he is on the road against sub five hundred

963
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 2: teams in his career. It just Tomlin is a we

964
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:12,240
Speaker 2: say raw rock. I've always call them raw ross spots.

965
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 2: Last weekend, That's why I bet Pitt classic raw raw

966
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 2: Tomlin spot gets you fired up, want to run through

967
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 2: a wall. But because his locker rooms rely on so

968
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: much emotion, you know, and he's just this guy to

969
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 2: us against the world. When you go on the road

970
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,879
Speaker 2: and play these teams that are just eh, and it's

971
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 2: like this gate doesn't mean as much. Well, then your

972
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 2: team is susceptible to come out really flat and they

973
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 2: do it all the time. So after an emotional win

974
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 2: last weekend, this is your classic pit flat spot.

975
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, I actually might, Yeah, just bet them straight up.

976
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 3: The more I think about it, You're You're exactly right.

977
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 3: It's it's a spot to just screams let down, yeah,

978
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 3: especially if this gets the three. Now, let's get into

979
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 3: the best of the rest, which is each game that

980
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 3: we didn't cover in any other segment. All right, we'll

981
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 3: start out here with the ten and two Baltimore Ravens

982
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 3: going to the nine and three Uffo Bill's House. The

983
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 3: Ravens are five and a half point favorite, seventy six

984
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,720
Speaker 3: percent of the bets, eighty one percent of the money

985
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 3: on the Ravens forty three and a half is the

986
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 3: total with seventy seven percent of the bets, but only

987
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 3: sixty percent of the money on the over thoughts stuff.

988
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 2: If the Bills win this game and the Chiefs beat

989
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,319
Speaker 2: the Patriots, we are headed to Week fifteen with the

990
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 2: Bills is the number one overall seed in the AFC.

991
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 2: Just throw that out there. The Bills are much better

992
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 2: than I thought. I've I significantly upgraded them after that

993
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,800
Speaker 2: game against Dallas, and you know, Dallas did some Dallas things.

994
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 2: And by the way, they still that's not a win

995
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:36,360
Speaker 2: against the winning team. It was at the time. But

996
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 2: the Bill's strength of schedules still is weak. But their

997
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 2: defense showed me some things. Their run defense is still vulnerable,

998
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 2: and Zeke had some success when they ran it. They

999
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 2: didn't run it as much as I thought they would,

1000
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 2: but their defense doesn't give up many big plays. They

1001
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:53,359
Speaker 2: have great safeties, They've they're linebackers like Milano and company, Alexander,

1002
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 2: They're they're good in coverage. They're better in coverage and

1003
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 2: pass us than they are against the run, which is

1004
00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 2: why they're, you know, one of the worst run defense

1005
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: in the NFL, especially at the middle. But they're good

1006
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 2: at covering tight ends. They're good at covering backs out

1007
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 2: of the backfield. They don't give up a ton of

1008
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,399
Speaker 2: big plays. You know, they have a corner that can

1009
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 2: match up with Brown on the outside. So I think

1010
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:11,879
Speaker 2: that what the what the Ravens are going to want

1011
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 2: to do here is just they're gonna they're gonna go,

1012
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 2: you know, super run heavy. You know, not necessarily, they're

1013
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 2: gonna use Lamar as a chess piason. He's going to

1014
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 2: be running the ball. But you're going to see them

1015
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,240
Speaker 2: pound it more than you've seen them in recent weeks,

1016
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 2: right up the gut, right out Buffalo. The question is,

1017
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 2: you know, ken Buffalo, can they not get behind in

1018
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:34,280
Speaker 2: this game? I mean that to me is the biggest

1019
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 2: key to everything that the Ravens do is you know,

1020
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 2: obviously it's Lamar Jackson, it's the run game, but they

1021
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 2: are using Lamar and the shock factor of seeing this

1022
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 2: offense every week. So what happens is these teams aren't

1023
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 2: used to seeing you know, they don't have a Lamar

1024
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 2: Jackson in practice. You don't see this type of Ravens offense.

1025
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 2: And then they're getting behind. The Ravens are averaging like

1026
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 2: almost nine points per first quarter, that's number one in

1027
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 2: the NFL. The Bills are averaging like three, which is

1028
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,720
Speaker 2: bottom six or seven. So and then once the Ravens

1029
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:03,959
Speaker 2: get a lead, then they can do what they really

1030
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 2: want to do, pound it, use Lamar, play action, the

1031
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 2: tight ends all there, and then their defense can swarm.

1032
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 2: And when they Ravens have the lead, what they're gonna

1033
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 2: do is Martinale' is just gonna blitz the house. And

1034
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 2: since they've had their three corners with Peters, Smith and Humphrey.

1035
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 2: And by the way, Humphrey will be on Beasley in

1036
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 2: the slot and he can cover the slot unlike the Cowboys.

1037
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 2: So if the Bills can come out and keep this

1038
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 2: close early, I think this game will be closed. I

1039
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 2: think the Bills can have a little bit of success

1040
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 2: running the ball. But the Josh Allen thing, he's a

1041
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,280
Speaker 2: mobile quarterback. He saw with the Sean Watson the Ravens

1042
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 2: practice against Lamar Jackson. Yep, Deshaun Watson was corralled the

1043
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 2: entire game. They were you know, you see it with

1044
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 2: these with these mobile quarterbacks, when Russell Wilson, Lamar wattson,

1045
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 2: even Josh Allen, when you come back and then you

1046
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 2: know a defender is coming at you and you just

1047
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 2: joke them that he's you see it all the time,

1048
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 2: he's running right by. With the Ravens against the Texans,

1049
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 2: they were just planning themselves, making sure Watson was contained

1050
00:46:57,520 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 2: and then another defender would come in. That's what happens

1051
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,720
Speaker 2: when you practice and Samar Jackson every day the Bills

1052
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 2: maybe benefit a little bit from that, But I mean

1053
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 2: Mark Jackson's is just a different level at a different speed

1054
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 2: than Josh Allen. So, you know, I think that the

1055
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,319
Speaker 2: Bills might have a little bit of success running the ball.

1056
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,879
Speaker 2: But Pierce, you know, the Ravens run defense numbers are bad,

1057
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:15,879
Speaker 2: but a lot of their bad games have came when

1058
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:19,439
Speaker 2: Pierce and Williams were out. Well, they're back and healthy now,

1059
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:21,399
Speaker 2: and that run defense is going to be a lot better.

1060
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 2: Although keep this in mind with the Ravens, one of

1061
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 2: their weakest spots is Earl Thomas doesn't want to tackle

1062
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 2: anyone anymore. I mean he he just doesn't want to

1063
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 2: do it. We'll do it when he has to. And

1064
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 2: then Marcus Peters has never wanted to tackle anyone his

1065
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 2: entire career. So you saw that last last week with

1066
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:37,399
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. The forty niners had like twenty

1067
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 2: eight rushes for one hundred and ten yards, and then

1068
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 2: they had two big rushes, one for forty and one

1069
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 2: for twenty and they were out on the outside when Peters,

1070
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:46,720
Speaker 2: I guess you could call it an attempt to tackle,

1071
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 2: and then Thomas, I guess you could call it. So

1072
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 2: if they get on the outside that it gives me

1073
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 2: nightmares thinking about the Peters and then Thomas trying to

1074
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 2: make a tackle. But the Ravens run defense is significantly improved.

1075
00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 2: I like the under here. I think this is going

1076
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 2: to be low scoring, just like last weekend with Saaf Fran.

1077
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 2: I know Buffalo is playing a little faster now with

1078
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 2: their offensive coordinator up in the box and they want

1079
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 2: to go with a little more pace, but these receivers

1080
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 2: are going to be locked down by the Ravens corners.

1081
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 2: That people talk about Lamar Jackson all the time and

1082
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 2: this offense, as they should, but people need to start

1083
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 2: talking about the Ravens defense. And because of Lamar Jackson,

1084
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 2: the Ravens defense can play. It's a perfect harmony. And

1085
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 2: then we have the special teams coming to play, and

1086
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 2: the Ravens will have the better kicker, the better punter.

1087
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 2: Those punters awful. They'll own field position. So I think

1088
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 2: Ravens win. But the line's about right. I mean, the

1089
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 2: Ravens are just overvalued in the market right now, and

1090
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 2: I like the under. I think it's like a twenty seventeen,

1091
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 2: twenty fourteen type of game. Keep it on the weather too,

1092
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 2: it's in Buffalo in December.

1093
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the play is the under forty three.

1094
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:43,839
Speaker 3: You got the It looks like the wins are going

1095
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 3: to be up which ten miles prior plus fifty fifty

1096
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 3: six percent hit rate in these games with the Bills

1097
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:52,240
Speaker 3: defense and Josh Allen sixteen and seven in his career

1098
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:55,879
Speaker 3: starts to the under. So do like the under as well?

1099
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 3: Better than a side?

1100
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 2: All right?

1101
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 3: Next up, we have the four to eight Broncos go

1102
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 3: to Houston to take on the eight and four Texans.

1103
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 3: Texans favored by nine and a half fifty percent of

1104
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 3: the tickets but forty five percent of the money. On Denver,

1105
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 3: the total is forty two, with seventy one percent of

1106
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:14,760
Speaker 3: the bets but only fifty one percent of the money

1107
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 3: on the over.

1108
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:17,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of injuries. I'm keeping an eye

1109
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 2: on here. The Broncos losing Dirk Wolf by the way,

1110
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 2: it does hurt a little bit, but you know, as

1111
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 2: von Miller, they have some linebackers. It looks like they

1112
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 2: should be relatively healthy. Drew Locke back on the center.

1113
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 2: He won his first start. What's he going to do

1114
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:31,800
Speaker 2: on the road here against the Texans defense? It's just vulnerable.

1115
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 2: I mean, they're dead last in the NFL third down

1116
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 2: conversion rate, their secondary isn't great, and their run defense

1117
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 2: now is not as great, and their pressure without without

1118
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 2: JJ Watt, So I would I think that the Bronx

1119
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 2: is gonna have some success running the ball. It's a

1120
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:46,640
Speaker 2: terrible spot for Houston. So you know, look, they come

1121
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 2: off a win against the Patriots and they have the

1122
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 2: Titans maybe for the division on deck. With a Broncos

1123
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 2: team coming in, it just screams flat spot. I think

1124
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 2: Denver can keep this close a couple things up, keep

1125
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 2: an eye on to the injury report, but I think

1126
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 2: it's to ten. You might see a play come across

1127
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 2: in the app on Denver.

1128
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was actually thinking of going with Denver for

1129
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:09,800
Speaker 3: one of my one of my six back picks. But yeah,

1130
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 3: just a lot of question marks with the injuries, and

1131
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 3: you know, don't want to bet on the team blindly,

1132
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,239
Speaker 3: you know, with them starring Drew Locke on the road.

1133
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 3: But we keep those nine to ten point underdogs have

1134
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:23,280
Speaker 3: covered at an eighty two percent quip since twenty fifteen,

1135
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 3: and the sample keeps growing bigger. So that's it's just

1136
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 3: a tough tough spot to cover when you start hitting

1137
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 3: those you know more than a touchdown. Next game, we

1138
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 3: have the five and seven Panthers, just fired head coach

1139
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 3: Ron Rivera this week, going to Atlanta to face the

1140
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 3: three and nine Falcons, who have coached that they get

1141
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:41,080
Speaker 3: fired at the end of the season. And dan Quinn.

1142
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 3: Falcons are three point favorites, getting sixty seven percent of

1143
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 3: the bets ninety four percent of the money. The total

1144
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 3: is forty seven and a half with fifty four percent

1145
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 3: of the bets and seventy six percent of the dollars

1146
00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 3: on the under.

1147
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 2: This is probably a stay away game for me, Like,

1148
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 2: what is cows Carolina going to respond to the changes

1149
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 2: to do things different? Their run defense is still horrible

1150
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,359
Speaker 2: and now they've lost even more guys on the defensive line.

1151
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 2: You saw Washington go nuts on the ground last week.

1152
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:12,840
Speaker 2: I don't know if Atlanta is as good on the ground,

1153
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 2: but they still should have some success running the ball.

1154
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,879
Speaker 2: It'll come down to this Hooper played. Is is Julio Jones healthy?

1155
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 2: I would think yes on Jones, maybe on Hooper. Carolina

1156
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,319
Speaker 2: also was just embarrassed by Atlanta in the division game

1157
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 2: at home. A couple of weeks ago, so maybe they

1158
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 2: want to show up here. A lot of guessing for

1159
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 2: two teams that are out of it. Probably a good

1160
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:32,760
Speaker 2: stay away in my eyes.

1161
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I totally agree. I think the market does tend

1162
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 3: to underrate teams that are that just had a coaching change.

1163
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 3: But three point spreads, it could go either way. I

1164
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 3: would probably still win Atlanta. That seems where the sharp

1165
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:45,799
Speaker 3: money is that as we record this.

1166
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had a bet at i'de go Falcons.

1167
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, three and nine Miami Dolphins going to Jersey to

1168
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,400
Speaker 3: face the four and eight Jets. So we have sixty

1169
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 3: four percent of the bets on the Miami Dolphins coming

1170
00:51:57,640 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 3: off the upset of the Eagles, but Sharks on the

1171
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 3: that's only twenty eight percent of the dollars are on

1172
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:07,080
Speaker 3: Miami here, so huge discrepancy there. Total is forty five

1173
00:52:07,160 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 3: seventy four percent of the bets, sixty five percent of

1174
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:10,879
Speaker 3: the dollars on the over.

1175
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 2: I was on the Eagles last week first half in

1176
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:15,399
Speaker 2: games split. I've been fanning the Dolphins the last couple

1177
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 2: of weeks. I'll probably doing it here. They still stink.

1178
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:20,879
Speaker 2: It's up great bilos Cell high spot. Could someone cover

1179
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 2: Devonte Parker, this is line's down to five. I know

1180
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 2: Jamal Adams is out, the Jets corners are all banged up,

1181
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 2: so maybe Adams goes for three hundred again. But look,

1182
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 2: Jets coming off an embarrassing loss of the Bengals, Dolphins

1183
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 2: coming off a win against the big upset win over

1184
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 2: the Eagles, this line has come down to five. I

1185
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 2: think you're getting the Jets cheap here. By the way,

1186
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:40,359
Speaker 2: if the Jets lose maybe their second loss to Miami,

1187
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 2: they'll have a better draft position after a week fourteen

1188
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,000
Speaker 2: than the Dolphins. But I think the Jets are the

1189
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 2: play here. I'll be on them probably first half is

1190
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 2: I'm waiting for a three to pop and for the game.

1191
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the you know, it always gives if

1192
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 3: you worries when when you're kind of have it to

1193
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 3: losing teams, division game weight, near anything can happen. But

1194
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 3: you know, I'd wait to see the injury report before

1195
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:02,719
Speaker 3: really touching it.

1196
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 2: How many yards will the Dolphins run for over under eight?

1197
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,879
Speaker 3: Under? Definitely under it. The four and eight Chargers going

1198
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 3: to four and eight Jacksonville Chargers favored by three on

1199
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 3: the road. Sixty two percent of the bets seventy nine

1200
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 3: percent of the money is on the charges total forty three,

1201
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:19,440
Speaker 3: with seventy three percent of the bets and seventy nine

1202
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 3: percent on the under stuck. I just think the Jaguars

1203
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:25,800
Speaker 3: have kind of started to mail it in a little.

1204
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:27,960
Speaker 3: It's just become more and more frustrating. Any time you

1205
00:53:27,960 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 3: see a team that is capable of playing decent run

1206
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 3: defense but is not week after week, it just screams,

1207
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 3: you know, whack of discipline, lack of effort, lack of focus.

1208
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, then their their whole secondary, their linebacking corps, banged up,

1209
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 2: their wide receivers, their tight end. I don't know who's

1210
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 2: left the tight end there. Their offensive line has been

1211
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:45,399
Speaker 2: a mess. I mean, their last four games lost twenty

1212
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 2: six three to Houston, thirty three, thirteen to Indy, forty

1213
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:51,360
Speaker 2: two to twenty to Tennessee. That's twenty plus. And then

1214
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 2: they lost twenty eight to eleven at home to Tama

1215
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 2: Minshew gets to start here, but this team's a mess.

1216
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 2: Go look at the injury report. We'll have our previews

1217
00:53:57,600 --> 00:53:59,399
Speaker 2: up on Action network dot com in the Action app.

1218
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:03,840
Speaker 2: They are significantly more injured than the Chargers were. Finally

1219
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:06,280
Speaker 2: getting healthier they're at least still trying it in games.

1220
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 2: Their secondary is healthier now, their offensive line. As I

1221
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 2: said earlier, I think the Chargers win this game. I

1222
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:13,200
Speaker 2: think the players the Chargers are nothing. The Jags look

1223
00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:13,839
Speaker 2: like they've quit.

1224
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 3: I might bet on the Chargers. I just I hate

1225
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 3: being on the Chargers, all right.

1226
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 2: So especially when you know they're gonna be down three

1227
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 2: with a minute to go, they have to go down

1228
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:23,799
Speaker 2: and score a touchdown to cover your three. If you're

1229
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:25,240
Speaker 2: laying three, I hate.

1230
00:54:25,080 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 3: I really really hate banging on the charge.

1231
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 1: All right.

1232
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 3: That wraps it up for best to the rest. Now

1233
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 3: let's get into our Survivor pool.

1234
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 1: Pick of the week, one pick, one chance to advance Survivor.

1235
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:44,520
Speaker 3: All right, so we are still alive because we had

1236
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:48,000
Speaker 3: the Chiefs last week. There were some landmines on that swate.

1237
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 3: You know, if you had the Eagles or something where

1238
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:53,799
Speaker 3: the Panthers last week, you got knocked out. But if

1239
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:57,439
Speaker 3: you're still alive week fourteen, even though I took bet

1240
00:54:57,440 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 3: against him for the six pack, I'm still going with

1241
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:02,960
Speaker 3: the Green Bay Packers in our Survivor week here because

1242
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 3: haven't used them yet, one of the few teams that

1243
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 3: and they have a big They're favored by thirteen, so

1244
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:10,400
Speaker 3: you expect them to at least win the game. If

1245
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:13,399
Speaker 3: you cannot use the Pack this week's step, who would

1246
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:13,680
Speaker 3: you go with?

1247
00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 2: Look, you probably haven't used this team, and if you're

1248
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 2: still in it, go with the Jets. I don't think

1249
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 2: the Dolphins. The Dolphins want to win this game at all,

1250
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 2: and it's just a huge letdown spot you're getting the

1251
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 2: Jets cheap, not that it matters for a survivor pool.

1252
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 2: I think the Dolphins only objective in this game is

1253
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:31,359
Speaker 2: to lose their whole objectives to get a good dress

1254
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 2: spot and all of a sudden, they're going to be

1255
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 2: a bot behind a team in their division if they

1256
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:38,720
Speaker 2: win this game. So I don't know. If you've probably

1257
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:40,520
Speaker 2: used a lot of teams in all many left, fading

1258
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:42,480
Speaker 2: the Dolphins isn't the worst thing you can do.

1259
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 3: And another sneaky one is the Bucks. I just think

1260
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 3: they're a much better team than the Colts at this

1261
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:47,720
Speaker 3: point in this season.

1262
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:48,920
Speaker 1: But that does it.

1263
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 3: For another episode of the Action Network Podcast, Week fourteen,

1264
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 3: NFL Betting Edition. Be sure to follow Stuck on Twitter

1265
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 3: at Stucky two. You can follow me at Chris Raybond

1266
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 3: and you can follow us by those same handles in

1267
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:04,040
Speaker 3: the Action Network app. To be sure to download that

1268
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:06,839
Speaker 3: be on the lookout. Stuck and Colin Wilson will be

1269
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 3: back with a couple of college football podcasts Friday and Monday,

1270
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:14,360
Speaker 3: and then we're with the Fantasy Flex on Wednesday, and

1271
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:18,880
Speaker 3: another edition of this podcast next Thursday. Good luck this weekend.

1272
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:19,840
Speaker 3: Let's get this money.

1273
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 2: Go back, Go Go rated. We're finished talking