1 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? 2 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of 3 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Paroltz. You 4 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all of my socials at 5 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt, and we. 6 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: Are back after a cool down. 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: Wednesday, we go one into the under for the Thunder 8 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 2: and Phoenix. 9 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: I mean it went by my number. 10 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 2: It closed at two six two, twenty seven to twenty 11 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 2: seven and a half. It fell to twenty seven to 12 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 2: twenty five and a half when I played more in 13 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: that game. Here in just one second, Lakers flyover. Lakers 14 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 2: get blown out by the Spurs. So that is a 15 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 2: one and two night down one point two units. I 16 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 2: knew that the Suns would get shut down. What I 17 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 2: did not realize is that the Suns were going to 18 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 2: give up one hundred and thirty eight some odd points 19 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 2: and that the starters for the Thunder would be on 20 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 2: the bench for the entire fourth quarter. And it was 21 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 2: G League time, and it was G League jacking threes 22 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. So that was frustrating because even 23 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 2: with all that going on, we almost cashed it. Still, 24 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 2: we still almost came in and went two and one 25 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 2: on the night. It was a bucket, so that was 26 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 2: that was annoying. So unfortunately we don't get the third 27 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 2: straight two and one night, We go one and two 28 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 2: as we had towards a Thursday. I've already giving you 29 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:40,039 Speaker 2: one of the plays here today. It was Wednesday's hard 30 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 2: Rock Bet of the Day. We'll get back into that 31 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 2: here in just one second, but let's tell you about 32 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 2: hard rock Bet. There are the presenting sponsors of the 33 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 2: Daily Juice podcast, and these guys want you to know 34 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: that the sports schedule is pretty darn packed. Lots of 35 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 2: stuff going on with football, Bowl games, NBA college hoops 36 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 2: sits a whole sports slagh that's loaded in hard rock bets. 37 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: Got you something to unwrap and bet on. 38 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 2: New customers can sign up for a five dollars bet 39 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 2: on any game and if you win, get your winnings 40 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 2: plus one hundred and fifteen bonus bets on top of that. 41 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 2: If you don't know what you bet, your place your 42 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 2: verus bet on. Hard Rock Bet just launched a brand 43 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 2: new for you page making it easy to find all 44 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 2: your favorite teams, players in leagues. The hard Rock Bet 45 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 2: sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for wherever you're 46 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:34,519 Speaker 2: in Florida, but it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, 47 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 2: and now in Michigan. Hard Rock Bet with new promos 48 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 2: every day. So download the hard Rock Bet app and 49 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 2: make your first deposit today. 50 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 3: Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by 51 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 3: the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the 52 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 3: Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC in other states must be 53 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 3: twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, 54 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. 55 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 3: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to 56 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 3: three p wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you 57 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 3: know is a gambling problem, laws help called one eight 58 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 3: hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred 59 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 3: gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 60 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 2: So I've told you about the Tampa Bay Buck Tempa 61 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 2: bay Bett excuse me, that was made on Wednesday, and 62 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:22,119 Speaker 2: I think there's there's data to go and back up. 63 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:23,920 Speaker 2: If you want to go ahead and fade it and 64 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,959 Speaker 2: you want to lay or take the points. I don't 65 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 2: think it's a horrible play. I'm not going I say 66 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 2: you're completely crazy for doing that. I have come in 67 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 2: and decided to just lay the four, which was the 68 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 2: basement for this number. And at time of tape we 69 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 2: are back to four or four and a half for 70 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: most books. Okay, I have four. You can find fours 71 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 2: in the marketplace. There's even you know, a fanatics at 72 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 2: five tonight, so there's a straggler there with fanatics. But 73 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 2: the numbers, for me, it really comes down to just 74 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: the fact that Kirk Cousins cannot be trusted in primetime 75 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 2: and it's less on Baker's injury, and Baker is a 76 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 2: home favorite. I mean things have not been good Baker 77 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 2: Mayfield overall at home as a home favorite, he is 78 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 2: thirteen twenty four and one ats. That is not good 79 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 2: over the last decade. Baker Mayfield's mark of twenty two 80 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 2: thirty five and one ats at home overall is the 81 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 2: worst for out of the one hundred and forty nine 82 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the NFL, Baker is the worst at home 83 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: ats wise number two is Kirk Cousins, but he's on 84 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 2: the road here, so but I think it comes down 85 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 2: to the fact that the Falcons have been really bad outdoors. 86 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 2: They've been really bad in divisional games and really bad 87 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 2: in primetime. These games generally are played closely, but I 88 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 2: think if you lay the four, I think we're gonna 89 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 2: be okay. Baker Mayfield with a historically bad loss last week, 90 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 2: he as a seven point favorite in his career, was 91 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 2: eleven and zero straight up before he lost to New 92 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 2: Orleans last week, so it's a great bounce back spot 93 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 2: outdoor games. 94 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 1: This year. 95 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 2: The Falcons are zero to five straight up two and 96 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 2: three ats. The Falcons have lost seven straight games outdoors 97 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 2: heading into this week, and they're eleven and twenty one 98 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 2: straight up and outdoor games since twenty twenty. They're coming 99 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 2: off that destruction by the Seahawks thirty one to three 100 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 2: in the second half for Seattle. So we're taking Tampa 101 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 2: minus four tonight here for one point one units. There 102 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 2: is one prop bet that I like, and it does 103 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 2: come from the prop bet cheat sheet, and that is 104 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 2: Bijon Robinson to go under four and a half receptions. Now, 105 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 2: Bijon Robinson this number has been four and a half 106 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 2: or five and a half pretty much every game, dating 107 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: all the way back to let's see the San Francisco 108 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 2: game in Week seven. He has gone under this number 109 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 2: in four four of the last five games. He had 110 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 2: two catches. Last game he had five against the Jets 111 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 2: in the last road game, but two against New Orleans, 112 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 2: four against Carolina, and two against Indianapolis. 113 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 1: This is a. 114 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 2: Five star play according to the prop bet cheat sheet, 115 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 2: with a sixty three percent cover probability and a plus 116 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 2: thirty four expected ev expected value on this play, it's 117 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 2: gone under seven of the thirteen games this year, so 118 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 2: pretty much it's a coin flip fifty to fifty. But 119 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 2: I think given the way that Kirk Cousins plays the 120 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:35,359 Speaker 2: pass rush and he's going to be in his lap, 121 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to be able to find 122 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 2: Jon Robinson. Last week he was not looking for Bjon 123 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 2: Robinson with only two receptions against the Saints on the road, 124 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 2: he was not looking for him only two receptions. This 125 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 2: is a guy who I think has been used a 126 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 2: lot more. In the first matchup, Bjhon Robinson at home 127 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 2: had six catches against this Bucks defense. But since the 128 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 2: since Week eight against Miami, he's only gone over two 129 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 2: times over four and a half. So this is five 130 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,679 Speaker 2: and two to the under over the last seven weeks. 131 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 2: They're not using Bijon as a catcher of the football. 132 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 2: And this is a really weird stat that the Action 133 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 2: Network pulled out for this game here tonight. 134 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: How about this over the last three years? Sorry? Where 135 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: is this? Yeah? 136 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 2: Over the last three seasons, two teams below five hundred 137 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 2: when they run the ball twenty five times or more. 138 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 2: The Titans are nine and fourteen and the Falcons are 139 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 2: fourteen and twenty one. And that is with Bijon Robinson. 140 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: Last week Atlanta had thirty one carries for one hundred 141 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 2: and twenty yards, but they lost the game thirty seven 142 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 2: to nine. It's really weird. It's really really weird. Kirk 143 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 2: Cousins is one in eight ats over his last nine starts, 144 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 2: probably because they can't move the football through the on 145 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 2: the ground or through the air and when they run 146 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 2: the ball a lot not successful in doing it. Kirk 147 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 2: Cousins is seventeen twenty six and one ats since twenty 148 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 2: twenty two. 149 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: The only quarterbacks active. 150 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 2: He's ahead of our Gino Smith and Mac Jones and 151 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 2: over that span Cousins starts in December or later is 152 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: two to nine ATS. This is Falcons, and this is 153 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 2: under on most of the offensive player props for the 154 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 2: Falcons here, including Bjon Robinson. We're gonna go under Bjon 155 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 2: Robinson four and a half receptions at plus money at 156 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 2: plus one twelve one NBA play to get into here 157 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 2: for tonight, and it's my Boston Celtics on the road 158 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 2: against the Milwaukee Brewers. 159 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 1: The Milwaukee Bucks wrong sport. Bruce. 160 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 2: Here's the thing. I've been watching this and betting this 161 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 2: on my own. I've not brought it to the podcast 162 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 2: because I just I feel like it's a little bit 163 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 2: of a Homer play. But and you guys roll your 164 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 2: eyes whenever I bet the Celtics. Have you guys been 165 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 2: paying attention to what Boston has been doing ATS wise? 166 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 2: They've covered eight straight games and they're nine to one 167 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 2: over their last ten. In fact, Boston is now ten 168 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 2: and seven ATS wise against the East after a horrific 169 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 2: start to this season ATS wise for Boston. This streak 170 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 2: began back on the twenty third of November. They be 171 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 2: covered against Orlando, they beaten covered against Detroit, they'd beaten 172 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 2: covered in Minnesota, and then the numbers started to get 173 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 2: really interesting. They were catching seven and a half against Cleveland, 174 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 2: they won the game outright. They were catching a point 175 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 2: and a half against the Knicks, they won outright. They 176 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 2: were laying ten and a half against Washington and they 177 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 2: won by forty five points. They were laying eight and 178 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 2: a half against the Lakers they won by twenty one points. 179 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 2: And they were laying three and a half against Toronto 180 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 2: and they won by eight. In the last game for 181 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 2: the Bucks, they were catching twelve and a half and 182 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 2: they lost by twelve. Game before that they were catching 183 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 2: one and a half and they lost by fifteen. And 184 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 2: these are the games they played without Jani's Antetakupo Janas 185 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 2: is out. He will out play here today and without him, 186 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 2: this is a paper tiger basketball team. The Bucks are 187 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 2: not the same team defensively. They're not the same team offensively. 188 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 2: They are really lacking any firepower without their star, their 189 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: Hall of Fame player in Yannis. This has been an 190 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 2: unbelievable run for the Celtics. Outright Boston has won five 191 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 2: games in a row and seven of eight. Outright, I 192 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 2: think they win the game outright here tonight, and I'll 193 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 2: lay a big number. I don't remember lay eight and 194 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 2: a half here, but without Yannis Milwaukee looking as bad 195 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 2: as they did over the last two games, and the 196 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 2: way that Boston's been playing with Jalen Brown, I'll lay 197 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 2: it Boston minus eight and a half for one point 198 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 2: one units, so it plays for Thursday, Tampa Bay minus 199 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 2: four for one point one units, b John Robinson under 200 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 2: four and a half receptions, and the Celtics in the 201 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 2: NBA at minus eight and a half. If you guys 202 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 2: want more, including a breakdown of every game that will 203 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 2: happen on Sunday from a betting perspective, plus a look 204 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 2: at the college football playoffs from from a betting perspective, 205 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 2: you can join me later today on my other show, 206 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 2: The Bostonian Versus the Book. To go and find it, 207 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 2: search at Boston Versus the Book on Twitter x or 208 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 2: on YouTube. I'll go live at one pm Eastern time 209 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:39,679 Speaker 2: ten am Pacific time. Audio podcasts can be found wherever 210 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 2: you guys get your audio podcasts by searching The Bostonian 211 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 2: Versus the Book one o'clock for Falcons Bucks Thursday Night 212 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:51,199 Speaker 2: Football full breakdown coming on for BVB later today at 213 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 2: one pm Eastern Time at Boston Versus the Book on 214 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:58,080 Speaker 2: Twitter or on YouTube minus Matt Parol. You guys can 215 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,439 Speaker 2: follow me across all my socials at Sports to Matt 216 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: every morning. Wherever you guys get your podcasts. It is 217 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 2: the Daily Juice.