WEBVTT - The 2023 Unhedged Stock Draft

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, it's Jacob. We'll be back next week with a

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<v Speaker 2>new episode of What's Your Problem. But in the meantime,

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<v Speaker 2>I wanted to share another show I've been working on.

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<v Speaker 2>It's called Unheedged and it's hosted by Ethan wo a brilliant,

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<v Speaker 2>funny economics reporter at the Financial Times. The show comes

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<v Speaker 2>out twice a week and it's basically Ethan and his

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<v Speaker 2>colleagues at the FT explaining what's happening in finance and markets.

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<v Speaker 2>I could go on about the show, or I could

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<v Speaker 2>just play you a recent episode. So here is a

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<v Speaker 2>recent episode.

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<v Speaker 3>I hope you like it. They are sexy, they are salubrious,

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<v Speaker 3>they are magnificent. They are the seven tech stocks propping

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<v Speaker 3>up the S and P five hundred. But which are

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<v Speaker 3>the sexiest the most salubriums. Today on the show, we

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<v Speaker 3>have two contestants duke it out and a draft style

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<v Speaker 3>game for the most magnificent tech stocks at the top

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<v Speaker 3>of the market. This is on Hedge, the Markets and

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<v Speaker 3>financihow from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I am reporter

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<v Speaker 3>Ethan Woo, your host today for this tech stock rumble.

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<v Speaker 3>In one corner, we have rob Value, this armstrong I'm

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<v Speaker 3>here to win, Nathan, when are you not? And in

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<v Speaker 3>the other corner we have Elaine putting the flex back

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<v Speaker 3>into Lex more.

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<v Speaker 4>Hi, I'm gonna love about the mess.

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<v Speaker 3>You're also here to win. You're on, I'm here to

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<v Speaker 3>beat Rob.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the most important.

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<v Speaker 3>That that is the most important. Elaine is the deputy

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<v Speaker 3>head of lex and our resident tech stock expert. And today,

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<v Speaker 3>Elaine and Rob, you're both going to pick three of

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<v Speaker 3>your favorites out of the seven tech stocks in a

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<v Speaker 3>draft style competition, and there will be one left over.

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<v Speaker 3>The criteria for your decision making is from today July thirteenth,

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty three, to the end of the year December

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<v Speaker 3>thirty First, which stock will have the best price appreciation

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<v Speaker 3>in the market. That's your metch And since first pick

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<v Speaker 3>is very important, we're gonna have a little trivia question

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<v Speaker 3>a little over under to decide who gets that first pick.

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<v Speaker 3>But first, what are our seven stocks?

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<v Speaker 1>Rob Our seven stocks are Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon,

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<v Speaker 1>in Vidia, and Tesla.

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<v Speaker 3>Of these, I think pretty much inarguably the stock doujors

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<v Speaker 3>in Vidia. I mean, it's just had a preposterous run

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<v Speaker 3>up in both valuation and its stock price, so today

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<v Speaker 3>for the privilege of getting first pick. In the second

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<v Speaker 3>quarter of twenty twenty two, in Vidia earned fifty one

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<v Speaker 3>cents per share. What is the bottom up analyst estimate

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<v Speaker 3>for the second quarter of twenty twenty three. I'm giving

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<v Speaker 3>you two dollars, Elane, do you take over or under

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<v Speaker 3>on two dollars? Over over robi? Okay, take the under. Okay.

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<v Speaker 3>In Vidia's analyst estimate for the second quarter of twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty three is two dollars and six cents a share,

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<v Speaker 3>just over two dollars. It's pretty much quintupled in the

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<v Speaker 3>space of a year. So I'm sorry, Rob Elaine's going

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<v Speaker 3>to get the first.

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<v Speaker 4>Pick today after a flying start.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, Ellen, which of the magnificent seven are you starting with?

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<v Speaker 4>And why I'm going from video? I'm starting strong.

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<v Speaker 3>There you go.

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<v Speaker 4>I know the haters will say that competition is coming

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<v Speaker 4>and video work keepers advantage forever, but I can't think

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<v Speaker 4>of a meeting I've been to this year that hasn't

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<v Speaker 4>included AI in there somewhere. And then Vidia is completely

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<v Speaker 4>out on its own in providing semiconductors in this market.

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<v Speaker 4>So Jensen Twang noted star like on cool leather jacket

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<v Speaker 4>is leading the way, and there's no Intel. There's nobody

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<v Speaker 4>else you can compare to Nvidia right now. So even

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<v Speaker 4>if we've had the stock rock it up this year,

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<v Speaker 4>he was handing out hints about what the second half

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<v Speaker 4>of the year might be, but without giving any numbers.

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<v Speaker 4>And I have a feeling that when we get the

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<v Speaker 4>next set of earnings, we'll hear some numbers, and I

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<v Speaker 4>think the stock is just going to bounce up even further.

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<v Speaker 1>Elaine, that's it's very interesting that you pick in video first,

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<v Speaker 1>because I have before me my secret draft order list,

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<v Speaker 1>and I put Nvidia last. Not only did I put

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<v Speaker 1>it last, I put it last for the exact same

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<v Speaker 1>reasons that you put it first. We are at peak

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<v Speaker 1>AI hype. The stock trades at sixty times earnings as

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<v Speaker 1>of a few days ago. Anyway, it had over almost

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred percent price return for the year.

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<v Speaker 3>This is a.

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<v Speaker 1>Great stock that is at the absolute top of investor excitement.

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<v Speaker 1>So they only need to step on a very small

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<v Speaker 1>banana peel to fall directly on their faces.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and given this as a second half bet decent

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<v Speaker 3>chance of a reversal, you might have to think, no way,

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<v Speaker 3>no way I mean I should say that.

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<v Speaker 1>I say this as a person who got into finance

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<v Speaker 1>working as a for a value investment shop and looking

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<v Speaker 1>for stocks that are cheap and underappreciated. So partly you

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<v Speaker 1>see my biases talking here, and for the last ten

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<v Speaker 1>years having a value orientation has worked exactly zero times.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah for me. So history is on a lane side. Yeah, ill,

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<v Speaker 1>and you might be a good shape.

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<v Speaker 4>I agree that we're in the midst of AI height.

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<v Speaker 4>What I don't agree with is the idea that that's peaked.

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<v Speaker 4>There are so many companies that are still trying to

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<v Speaker 4>figure out their AI strategy. What they all want is

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<v Speaker 4>compute power. They don't really understand how they're going to

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<v Speaker 4>price or what kind of AI services they're going to

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<v Speaker 4>use or sell. But what they all want is the

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<v Speaker 4>ability to have some kind of AI that they can

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<v Speaker 4>tell investors that they are including in their company. And

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<v Speaker 4>if you want that, then you have to have in

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<v Speaker 4>videos services. And because it's the only one that has

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<v Speaker 4>the chips that will do this, there is no competition

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<v Speaker 4>right now. I agree with you on the valuation and

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<v Speaker 4>if you look for a cheap stock, of course, and

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<v Speaker 4>videos not that. But I think if We're just talking

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<v Speaker 4>about the second half of this year, and video is

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<v Speaker 4>just going to keep on going up. What stands in

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<v Speaker 4>it's way? What is the banan appeal that could come along?

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<v Speaker 1>That's the thing about banana peals. You don't see them,

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<v Speaker 1>You don't see them going, and don't see them till

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<v Speaker 1>you step on them.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, Rob Eleen's done you a great favor of taking

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<v Speaker 3>your bottom pick off the table table. What's your first pick?

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<v Speaker 1>Uh, I'm taking Microsoft, and I'll tell you why.

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<v Speaker 3>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>This pick would have been very easy to make before

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday's inflation numbers, because I was pretty much in the

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<v Speaker 1>recession camp for you know that the economy would slow

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<v Speaker 1>a lot towards the end of the year, and I

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<v Speaker 1>was thinking, you're gonna want Microsoft because it has business customers.

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<v Speaker 1>In a slow down, the business customer will keep buying

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<v Speaker 1>Microsoft's stuff. Also, reasonable valuation expectations are not very high.

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<v Speaker 1>Earnings growth for this year is expected to come in

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<v Speaker 1>like mid single digits. It hasn't run up as much

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<v Speaker 1>as some of these It's up forty percent this year,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a lot less than some of the others.

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<v Speaker 1>I just have this feeling that's solid old Microsoft in

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<v Speaker 1>a group of stocks that has had a great first

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<v Speaker 1>half of the year, with the possibility of some choppy

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<v Speaker 1>weather coming in the second half of the year, Microsoft

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<v Speaker 1>might come out ahead.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not terribly optimistic about the stocks in general for

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<v Speaker 1>the second half of the year. So like, if they're

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<v Speaker 1>all do so, so, I think Microsoft will do the best.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah so so, yeah, I know we've seen its cloud

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<v Speaker 3>computing business be kind of the source of resiliency as

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<v Speaker 3>other tech companies are struggling. Yeah, all right, that's round one.

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<v Speaker 3>Elaine's chosen Nvidia and Rob's chosen Microsoft. Elaine Round two.

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<v Speaker 3>Five left, what's your next pick? She's taking Tesla.

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<v Speaker 4>Now, no, I'm gonna I'm going to take Apple. And

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<v Speaker 4>it is very much not because of the mad expensive

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<v Speaker 4>three thousand, five hundred dollars mixed reality headsets that they announced,

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<v Speaker 4>but then that they're not even going to start selling

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<v Speaker 4>until next year. What matters for Apple is that it

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<v Speaker 4>is still the lead in smartphone markets. Smartphone market hasn't

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<v Speaker 4>been amazing, but because Apple is still very much the

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<v Speaker 4>king of that market and it keeps on selling these

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<v Speaker 4>high margins services, the company is throwing off so much

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<v Speaker 4>cash it can afford to experiment free cash flow five

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<v Speaker 4>times sides of metals, while Meta is just draining its

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<v Speaker 4>budget into the metaverse. Apple has so much more, had

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<v Speaker 4>a one hundred and sixty six billion of cash marketable securities,

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<v Speaker 4>keep saying it's going to keep handing it out. If

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<v Speaker 4>you were looking at Baluy stocks, it's not the best.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not some kind of hidden gem, but I think

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<v Speaker 4>that it's solid.

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<v Speaker 3>But elater. Are we at peak smartphone saturation?

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<v Speaker 4>We keep on thinking we're at peak smartphone saturation. Didn't

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<v Speaker 4>we think that about three or four years ago ago?

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<v Speaker 4>For me, Yeah, someone comes out with an incredibly expensive

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<v Speaker 4>new version or a version that's half the price and

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<v Speaker 4>has half the power, and everybody buys it. Also, if

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<v Speaker 4>you keep on producing phones that smash, that keep running

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<v Speaker 4>slow after a year, then I guess there is no

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<v Speaker 4>such thing as satuation.

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<v Speaker 1>I shudder to agree, but I agree. This was my

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<v Speaker 1>second pick.

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<v Speaker 4>Grudging consent.

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<v Speaker 3>I no.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, first of all, Apple's an amazing company for

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<v Speaker 1>a million reasons that I could talk about. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think the stock is terribly expensive relative to the other ones.

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<v Speaker 1>And I also like it because it is not only

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<v Speaker 1>the smartphone leader. It is the high end smartphone leader,

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<v Speaker 1>and if there is anything we've learned over the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years, the high end has been a sweet

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<v Speaker 1>spot for the market. Marketing to the richer end of

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<v Speaker 1>the economy has just plain worked. Expectations for this year

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<v Speaker 1>are low, too, agreed. Yeah, people think they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>have a year hard time lapping the excellent year they

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<v Speaker 1>had last year. A lot of room for this company

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<v Speaker 1>to surprise to the upside. Maybe I should have taken

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<v Speaker 1>Apple first.

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<v Speaker 4>The thing is, if there's no growth anywhere, then it

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't matter so much that smartphone sales aren't rocketing, because

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<v Speaker 4>the comparison against other tech socks is not about growth profitability,

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<v Speaker 4>and it's about how much cash you're sitting on.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, what's your next pick?

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<v Speaker 1>We're the meaty middle, the meady middle, and the hard

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<v Speaker 1>part of the draft. I am stuck between two names here,

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<v Speaker 1>and I really, I honestly don't know which way to go.

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<v Speaker 1>But because I picked steady Microsoft as the first pick,

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<v Speaker 1>a pick designed to help in a weakening economic environment,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to take Amazon next. Now this goes against

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<v Speaker 1>my value. Investors in general hate Amazon, but what I

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<v Speaker 1>like about Amazon is that the stock hasn't gone up

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<v Speaker 1>very much over five years. It's gone up a lot

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<v Speaker 1>this year, but it's been parked where it is. If

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer is strong for the rest of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>They just reported they had like their first day of

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Day was the biggest still ever. So the concern

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<v Speaker 1>with the stock, why it's been parked for a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of years now is because people feel like the retail

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<v Speaker 1>business is not that strong. Maybe it surprises to the upside.

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<v Speaker 1>AWS continues to be a great business, and maybe the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that the stock has gone nowhere in five years

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<v Speaker 1>lights of fire under the management. Maybe they start turning

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<v Speaker 1>the profit dial a little bit, which is something that

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<v Speaker 1>they've always had the ability to do earn more money

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<v Speaker 1>than they earn, but they've always put the money back

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<v Speaker 1>into the business instead. Maybe they start shifting that mix

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<v Speaker 1>to get the stock moving.

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<v Speaker 3>Amazon Amazon second pick for you. Surprising to me. I

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<v Speaker 3>thought this was going to be one of the underdogs

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<v Speaker 3>coming into this. It should be yeah, yeah, yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>They spent seven billion dollars on shows for their streaming service.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, and they were all right, and they were all.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the streaming business, it's a problem. The structure of

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<v Speaker 1>the streaming business is the reason Netflix isn't one of

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<v Speaker 1>the big tig stocks anymore. Right, And you have put

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<v Speaker 1>your finger on the hardest bit. And that is evidence

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<v Speaker 1>of what I talked about their incredible appetite for investment

0:12:20.076 --> 0:12:24.436
<v Speaker 1>over time. Investors seem finally to have become a bit

0:12:24.516 --> 0:12:26.836
<v Speaker 1>wary about that. They ate it up for twenty years,

0:12:27.636 --> 0:12:29.676
<v Speaker 1>and now they're kind of looking at this thing and

0:12:29.716 --> 0:12:32.996
<v Speaker 1>saying it's not the world of two thousand and five anymore.

0:12:33.116 --> 0:12:35.876
<v Speaker 3>Yeap, all right, that was round two. Elaine's chosen Apple

0:12:35.916 --> 0:12:38.636
<v Speaker 3>and Rob's chosen Amazon. Elaine, what do you got for

0:12:38.676 --> 0:12:42.076
<v Speaker 3>round three? We've got Meta, Tesla and Google left.

0:12:42.196 --> 0:12:43.316
<v Speaker 4>I wouldn't touch Meta.

0:12:45.116 --> 0:12:47.956
<v Speaker 3>They've got Threads. Come on, now, I.

0:12:48.036 --> 0:12:50.556
<v Speaker 4>Do quite love Threads, but they've done so much cost

0:12:50.596 --> 0:12:52.276
<v Speaker 4>cutting is any so far they can go? So I

0:12:52.356 --> 0:12:54.796
<v Speaker 4>think that's kind of it for Meta. I'll go Alphabet,

0:12:55.356 --> 0:12:58.196
<v Speaker 4>which is a weird one in a way because it's

0:12:58.236 --> 0:13:00.836
<v Speaker 4>investing a lot in AI, and yet AI could kind

0:13:00.836 --> 0:13:06.356
<v Speaker 4>of eliminate their central search business. But Microsoft being hasn't

0:13:06.396 --> 0:13:08.436
<v Speaker 4>taken over from Google Search. I don't know anybody that

0:13:08.476 --> 0:13:11.956
<v Speaker 4>goes straight to when they're looking something up online. Valuation

0:13:12.116 --> 0:13:15.836
<v Speaker 4>multiples are fairly low. There's really low debt to equity ratio.

0:13:16.596 --> 0:13:18.956
<v Speaker 4>That digital advertising market seems to be doing a lot

0:13:18.996 --> 0:13:20.716
<v Speaker 4>better or was definitely doing a lot better in the

0:13:20.756 --> 0:13:23.076
<v Speaker 4>last quarter than it was towards the end of last year.

0:13:23.756 --> 0:13:26.636
<v Speaker 4>It's not my favorite of all the tech stocks, but

0:13:27.156 --> 0:13:30.196
<v Speaker 4>it would be definitely my pickover Tesla and Metal.

0:13:30.316 --> 0:13:33.316
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Well, Elaine, am I right to detect attention in

0:13:33.436 --> 0:13:35.676
<v Speaker 3>kind of your in Vidia pick and your Alphabet pick.

0:13:35.756 --> 0:13:38.956
<v Speaker 3>You're betting their AI hypees not over. It's going up

0:13:39.036 --> 0:13:41.596
<v Speaker 3>up into the right, but it's not going to cannibalize

0:13:41.596 --> 0:13:42.596
<v Speaker 3>Alphabet's core business.

0:13:42.916 --> 0:13:45.076
<v Speaker 4>I mean, Alphabet is kind of trying to callibalize its

0:13:45.116 --> 0:13:47.356
<v Speaker 4>own business. That's quite strange. I guess my feeling about

0:13:47.356 --> 0:13:50.276
<v Speaker 4>AI is that it's the classic You want to back

0:13:50.356 --> 0:13:52.836
<v Speaker 4>the stock that's selling the tools. So it doesn't really

0:13:52.836 --> 0:13:55.196
<v Speaker 4>matter what happens to AI next year or whether this

0:13:55.236 --> 0:13:58.556
<v Speaker 4>all turns out to have been over overhyped. If there's

0:13:58.596 --> 0:14:00.916
<v Speaker 4>investment going on right now, you want to be backing

0:14:00.956 --> 0:14:03.676
<v Speaker 4>the company that's selling the compute power, and that's Nvidia.

0:14:03.836 --> 0:14:07.436
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Yeah, So William's picked in Nvidia, Apple and Alphabet.

0:14:07.716 --> 0:14:10.436
<v Speaker 3>Rob has Microsoft, Amazon, and he is now going to

0:14:10.476 --> 0:14:13.476
<v Speaker 3>settle the cage match between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk

0:14:13.516 --> 0:14:15.836
<v Speaker 3>by picking Meta or Tesla.

0:14:16.996 --> 0:14:20.516
<v Speaker 1>I'm taking Meta, and I'm taking Meta because I'm not

0:14:20.516 --> 0:14:26.276
<v Speaker 1>taking Tesla. Okay, As a value guy, I can't touch

0:14:26.316 --> 0:14:29.476
<v Speaker 1>a stock that is up one hundred and twenty three

0:14:29.516 --> 0:14:34.236
<v Speaker 1>percent this year, even while estimates of its earnings this

0:14:34.316 --> 0:14:38.156
<v Speaker 1>year have fallen. So all the work of getting that

0:14:38.236 --> 0:14:41.716
<v Speaker 1>stock up and more has been done by its valuation,

0:14:41.956 --> 0:14:45.076
<v Speaker 1>not by its performance. I hear the cars are great.

0:14:46.036 --> 0:14:49.956
<v Speaker 1>I think Tesla might win the What are the ultimate

0:14:49.956 --> 0:14:52.156
<v Speaker 1>fighting they're doing? Are they doing jiu jitsu.

0:14:54.916 --> 0:14:56.956
<v Speaker 4>Of zuckabug his mma trying?

0:14:56.996 --> 0:15:00.236
<v Speaker 1>Now he's like all skinny, like the big fat Zuck.

0:15:00.396 --> 0:15:01.916
<v Speaker 3>No, Zuck's ripped. Have you seen it? No?

0:15:01.916 --> 0:15:04.796
<v Speaker 1>No, no, no, I'm saying Zuck like the person who

0:15:04.836 --> 0:15:09.436
<v Speaker 1>is physically larger just wins, right. And my impression is

0:15:09.476 --> 0:15:13.636
<v Speaker 1>that whatever the appearance of their body, musk is bigger.

0:15:14.636 --> 0:15:18.596
<v Speaker 3>Have you seen musk not musk suck shirtless recently? Yes,

0:15:18.676 --> 0:15:22.636
<v Speaker 3>it's impressive. Each Muscles don't win fights, that is what

0:15:22.676 --> 0:15:25.196
<v Speaker 3>I'm saying. And did promise to sit on Zuck in

0:15:25.236 --> 0:15:25.796
<v Speaker 3>a fight.

0:15:25.636 --> 0:15:27.716
<v Speaker 1>Between two people who are not fighters. Just pick the

0:15:27.756 --> 0:15:29.196
<v Speaker 1>bigger one.

0:15:29.396 --> 0:15:30.076
<v Speaker 3>That's the rule.

0:15:30.676 --> 0:15:35.276
<v Speaker 1>But for the stock, for the star now, Meta has

0:15:35.316 --> 0:15:38.076
<v Speaker 1>had an incredible run, and a lot of that is

0:15:38.116 --> 0:15:40.556
<v Speaker 1>to do with them saying we won't be quite as

0:15:40.556 --> 0:15:43.556
<v Speaker 1>stupid as we were before. That's put the stock up

0:15:43.596 --> 0:15:45.036
<v Speaker 1>one hundred and fifty percent or something.

0:15:45.076 --> 0:15:45.516
<v Speaker 3>This year.

0:15:46.076 --> 0:15:50.396
<v Speaker 1>They downplayed the stupid metaverse and they have, you know,

0:15:50.636 --> 0:15:54.636
<v Speaker 1>promised to focus on efficiency as you referred to earlier online.

0:15:55.076 --> 0:15:57.876
<v Speaker 1>I think your concern is exactly right. Where do they

0:15:57.876 --> 0:16:01.356
<v Speaker 1>go from here? It seems like all the good stuff

0:16:01.396 --> 0:16:04.156
<v Speaker 1>they can do is now priced in the stock. However,

0:16:04.876 --> 0:16:07.436
<v Speaker 1>it's trading at a kind of market multiple. It costs you

0:16:07.476 --> 0:16:09.236
<v Speaker 1>the same thing as the S and P five hundred.

0:16:09.476 --> 0:16:14.196
<v Speaker 1>It's a very profitable company. I think you know they're okay,

0:16:14.356 --> 0:16:15.636
<v Speaker 1>sixth pickout of seven.

0:16:15.876 --> 0:16:18.556
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, but how do you downplay the metaverse when you've

0:16:18.636 --> 0:16:22.556
<v Speaker 4>called your company Meta and you've spent thirty seven billion

0:16:22.596 --> 0:16:26.436
<v Speaker 4>dollars minimum on it. You have to keep spending on it,

0:16:26.476 --> 0:16:28.236
<v Speaker 4>You have to keep pushing forward unless you change your

0:16:28.276 --> 0:16:29.276
<v Speaker 4>name back to Facebook.

0:16:30.236 --> 0:16:34.876
<v Speaker 1>The fact is Facebook is sitting there with seventeen kajillion

0:16:35.436 --> 0:16:39.916
<v Speaker 1>users worldwide looking at its products, it has Instagram, and

0:16:40.436 --> 0:16:45.956
<v Speaker 1>the fact that the founder lives in a complete fantasy

0:16:45.996 --> 0:16:48.716
<v Speaker 1>world probably doesn't matter all that much.

0:16:49.516 --> 0:16:51.236
<v Speaker 3>Elane, do you do you have a higher estimation of

0:16:51.236 --> 0:16:52.756
<v Speaker 3>Tesla that meta?

0:16:52.916 --> 0:16:56.956
<v Speaker 4>Yes, that's not saying much.

0:16:56.836 --> 0:16:57.956
<v Speaker 3>Is it semore? Same work?

0:16:58.876 --> 0:17:02.556
<v Speaker 4>Well, the cars are good, the charging network is expanding.

0:17:02.636 --> 0:17:04.876
<v Speaker 4>That's going very well. That means potentially, you know, another

0:17:04.916 --> 0:17:08.116
<v Speaker 4>big source of revenue if it's opened out globally and

0:17:08.156 --> 0:17:10.796
<v Speaker 4>lots of other car company needs use the charging stations

0:17:10.836 --> 0:17:14.916
<v Speaker 4>and give money to Tesla model why sales are going

0:17:14.996 --> 0:17:17.956
<v Speaker 4>quite well, but there are so many red flags. The

0:17:17.956 --> 0:17:21.076
<v Speaker 4>big price cuts they've been using to lift sales that

0:17:21.156 --> 0:17:24.796
<v Speaker 4>are just dragging on operating margins, and the idea that

0:17:24.796 --> 0:17:27.676
<v Speaker 4>you're betting on people's willingness to buy big, expensive cars.

0:17:27.996 --> 0:17:31.236
<v Speaker 4>And if there is any kind of uncertainty about the economy,

0:17:31.276 --> 0:17:35.796
<v Speaker 4>that will go badly wrong. Where's the cyber truck? I

0:17:35.796 --> 0:17:37.996
<v Speaker 4>don't know self drive modes auton of driving.

0:17:38.276 --> 0:17:40.636
<v Speaker 3>Is the time where the windows broke during the stage demonstration.

0:17:41.476 --> 0:17:45.076
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's the one. It looks cool, but it's nowhere

0:17:45.556 --> 0:17:45.916
<v Speaker 4>all right.

0:17:46.036 --> 0:17:49.316
<v Speaker 3>Thank you both for these picks. Elaine has Nvidia, Apple Alphabet,

0:17:49.476 --> 0:17:53.436
<v Speaker 3>Rob has Microsoft, Amazon, meta and nobody picked Tesla, and

0:17:53.436 --> 0:17:55.436
<v Speaker 3>people have been short Tesla a long time and the

0:17:55.476 --> 0:17:57.916
<v Speaker 3>stock's proven a lot of doubters wrong. But maybe this

0:17:57.996 --> 0:18:00.476
<v Speaker 3>time is different. We'll have to check back at the

0:18:00.516 --> 0:18:03.396
<v Speaker 3>end of the year and see how our drafts did.

0:18:03.556 --> 0:18:05.356
<v Speaker 1>I feel terrible about my picks now I'd.

0:18:05.196 --> 0:18:06.036
<v Speaker 3>Like to take it off back.

0:18:07.476 --> 0:18:09.996
<v Speaker 4>I feel great about mine. I'm looking forward to going

0:18:10.036 --> 0:18:11.076
<v Speaker 4>back and Jimson about them.

0:18:11.116 --> 0:18:13.236
<v Speaker 3>If Tesla is the best performing stock out of all

0:18:13.236 --> 0:18:15.076
<v Speaker 3>of these, I think we will.

0:18:15.236 --> 0:18:19.276
<v Speaker 1>We will eat an actual crow on the podcast. I

0:18:19.316 --> 0:18:21.036
<v Speaker 1>don't know where you get a crow, but I assume

0:18:21.036 --> 0:18:22.156
<v Speaker 1>you can order one from an It's just.

0:18:22.156 --> 0:18:24.156
<v Speaker 3>The both of you crying well hacking away a crow.

0:18:27.236 --> 0:18:28.876
<v Speaker 3>All right, We'll be back in a minute to talk

0:18:28.916 --> 0:18:43.156
<v Speaker 3>about the stakes of our bet. Welcome back. This is

0:18:43.196 --> 0:18:44.956
<v Speaker 3>normally the part of the show where we do a

0:18:44.996 --> 0:18:47.276
<v Speaker 3>long and a short, but instead, for this special episode

0:18:47.276 --> 0:18:50.356
<v Speaker 3>of on Hedge, we're discussing what the shame and the

0:18:50.436 --> 0:18:52.796
<v Speaker 3>glory is going to be for the winner and the

0:18:52.836 --> 0:18:56.156
<v Speaker 3>loser of this bet. Rob suggested eating a crow live

0:18:56.196 --> 0:18:59.516
<v Speaker 3>on the podcast. I don't want to do that.

0:18:58.996 --> 0:19:01.436
<v Speaker 1>That's that we only have to do that if if

0:19:01.676 --> 0:19:05.556
<v Speaker 1>Tesla is the best performer the unpicked. Yes, member of

0:19:05.556 --> 0:19:07.836
<v Speaker 1>the Magnificent seven is the best performer of the bunch.

0:19:07.916 --> 0:19:10.396
<v Speaker 3>We do this star this annual stockpicking contest on the

0:19:10.476 --> 0:19:13.556
<v Speaker 3>Unhedged newsletter, and you know we write either a maya

0:19:13.596 --> 0:19:16.036
<v Speaker 3>culpa or a hey we got it right piece every year.

0:19:16.076 --> 0:19:17.276
<v Speaker 3>Maybe we can do something like that.

0:19:17.796 --> 0:19:20.676
<v Speaker 1>I'm always happy to write a MAPA is my is

0:19:20.716 --> 0:19:24.916
<v Speaker 1>my strength, your bread and butter. I mean, should we

0:19:24.916 --> 0:19:26.396
<v Speaker 1>put should we bet on it? Elaine?

0:19:26.636 --> 0:19:26.916
<v Speaker 4>Sure?

0:19:27.196 --> 0:19:28.076
<v Speaker 1>Dinner? A beer?

0:19:28.596 --> 0:19:32.116
<v Speaker 4>I say beer? Well, uh yeah, A green.

0:19:31.996 --> 0:19:36.316
<v Speaker 3>Juice, yes, no, an iced coffee.

0:19:36.356 --> 0:19:40.476
<v Speaker 1>I hereby bet you the alcoholic beverage of your choice

0:19:40.516 --> 0:19:42.676
<v Speaker 1>that my picks will prevail.

0:19:43.076 --> 0:19:44.716
<v Speaker 3>She's going to take you to one of the Martini

0:19:44.716 --> 0:19:46.756
<v Speaker 3>places you reviewed a couple months back, and it's going

0:19:46.796 --> 0:19:47.716
<v Speaker 3>to be Martini.

0:19:48.036 --> 0:19:49.836
<v Speaker 4>I don't know why I didn't say yes to dinner.

0:19:49.836 --> 0:19:51.556
<v Speaker 4>And she's the most expensive place I can think of,

0:19:51.596 --> 0:19:53.876
<v Speaker 4>because my bets are definitely going to do best in

0:19:53.916 --> 0:19:57.676
<v Speaker 4>the os. But I'll take I'll take an expensive drink, okay.

0:19:57.436 --> 0:20:01.596
<v Speaker 1>One expensive drink at the winner's choice of venue.

0:20:02.116 --> 0:20:06.876
<v Speaker 3>Perfect rob Elaine will see you both back here in January.

0:20:07.196 --> 0:20:09.316
<v Speaker 3>One person will be hanging their head in shame. One

0:20:09.356 --> 0:20:12.116
<v Speaker 3>person will be pounding their chest in glory looking forward

0:20:12.156 --> 0:20:17.116
<v Speaker 3>to that. All right, listeners will catch you next week

0:20:17.156 --> 0:20:22.516
<v Speaker 3>for another episode of Unheedged see then. Unhedged is produced

0:20:22.556 --> 0:20:26.196
<v Speaker 3>by Jake Harper and edited by Brian Erstadt. Our executive

0:20:26.236 --> 0:20:30.076
<v Speaker 3>producer is Jacob Goldstein. We had additional help from toeprafoeheads.

0:20:30.596 --> 0:20:33.676
<v Speaker 3>Cheryl Brumley is the FT's global head of Audio special

0:20:33.716 --> 0:20:38.156
<v Speaker 3>thanks to Laura Clark, Alistair Mackie, John Schnarz, Eric Sandler,

0:20:38.316 --> 0:20:42.156
<v Speaker 3>and Jess Trulia. FT Premium subscribers can get the Unheedged

0:20:42.196 --> 0:20:45.076
<v Speaker 3>newsletter for free, and a ninety day free trial is

0:20:45.116 --> 0:20:48.076
<v Speaker 3>available to everyone else. Just go to ft dot com

0:20:48.116 --> 0:20:51.956
<v Speaker 3>slash Unhedged offer. I'm Ethan Woo. Thanks for listening.

0:20:58.436 --> 0:20:58.476
<v Speaker 4>A