Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jaily. We bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment and international relations.
Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot
Speaker 1: Com and of course on the Bloomberg Terminent. This moment
Speaker 1: is a joy for us because this guy is really different.
Speaker 1: His boring title is he's Chief executive officer of Norangist
Speaker 1: Bank Investment Management. Forget about it. This guy is steered
Speaker 1: the aircraft carrier of Norway's prodigious oil wealth. Forward through
Speaker 1: the Storm is Nikolake Tangan and what you should know
Speaker 1: is he's the most interesting portfolio guy out there, including
Speaker 1: his support of a Sterling Munch show at the British
Speaker 1: Museum a few years ago. Nikolaion, want to go to
Speaker 1: the success of your show and obviously the classic painting
Speaker 1: the scream. It seems everyone now is screaming, how did
Speaker 1: you do fo blended and not screamed this year? Well, um,
Speaker 1: I would say we're screaming, but we are. We are
Speaker 1: pleased with the results and the funds up fourteen and
Speaker 1: a half present last year and in absolute numbers is
Speaker 1: the second best year we have had in the twenty
Speaker 1: five year history. I want to talk to you and
Speaker 1: quiz you closely on the uproar right now on the
Speaker 1: value of E S G investing. You've got a number
Speaker 1: of companies that you you stepped aside from and in
Speaker 1: nine thousand holdings you say we're not going to mention
Speaker 1: who they are, blah blah blah. I want you to
Speaker 1: give us a primer now on the plus, the minus,
Speaker 1: the pros and cons of E S G Alsa mcclearly plus.
Speaker 1: And you know, perhaps in the old days there was
Speaker 1: a bit of a trade off between uh, you know
Speaker 1: E S G and returns. Now I really think they
Speaker 1: go hand in hand. The thing is, if you if
Speaker 1: you own a company now which is not sustainable, doesn't
Speaker 1: have a sustainable business model, you know, not only will
Speaker 1: you not get finance, you not get insurance, nobody would
Speaker 1: want to work with you, and you will have no clients.
Speaker 1: So it just really goes together to a degree we
Speaker 1: haven't seen before. Tell me about a sharp ratio analysis
Speaker 1: of what you do. You are the aircraft carry You
Speaker 1: can barely move the needle with any individual stock or
Speaker 1: even sector selection as well in the firmaent we're in,
Speaker 1: including what we saw from the American Central Bank yesterday.
Speaker 1: How do you find alpha? How do you find a
Speaker 1: sharp ratio return? That's constructive? You're absolutely right. We are
Speaker 1: a very large fund and so there aren't that many
Speaker 1: places we can hide it, and we are quite index
Speaker 1: nearing what we do. But at the same time, there
Speaker 1: are a lot of smaller tweaks we can do in
Speaker 1: terms of give us an exaction, give us an example. Well,
Speaker 1: there are companies we can choose not to own. For instance,
Speaker 1: um uh, you know wire Card in Germany, we did
Speaker 1: not own that it collapsed. He saved us, you know,
Speaker 1: a huge amount of money. So we can do this
Speaker 1: negative selection, which is which has been good for us
Speaker 1: over the years. Um so we do have some means.
Speaker 1: Actually last year we have we had access returns of
Speaker 1: of point seventy five, which you know was like eighty
Speaker 1: billion Norwegian growner. So we can do things even though
Speaker 1: we are in next year. Lisa, what he just said
Speaker 1: there is absolutely fundamental to the mathematics of management. It's
Speaker 1: not what you do, it's what you don't do that
Speaker 1: adds alpha, which you don't buy. And we were talking
Speaker 1: about E s G and how you're moving into E
Speaker 1: S G and I just want to sit on that
Speaker 1: for a minute, Nikolai, because I know your fund has
Speaker 1: been really forward on this at a time when oil
Speaker 1: is outperforming, and we see that this transition has been
Speaker 1: incredibly difficult and in an era of inflation, it is
Speaker 1: the energy stocks that are doing the best. How do
Speaker 1: you arrange around that? Well, we are we owned the
Speaker 1: big integrated old companies, and you know, there are two
Speaker 1: ways so handled kind of navigating these towtory. You can
Speaker 1: either sell out of the companies and just run away
Speaker 1: from the problems, or you can stay in the companies
Speaker 1: and be a constructive and long term shareholder and actually
Speaker 1: help the transition. And that is what we are doing.
Speaker 1: So we are there. We've got clear expectation when it
Speaker 1: comes to how we want these companies to behave and
Speaker 1: and to do their business and um, and we own
Speaker 1: them and you know we have made money in these Nikola.
Speaker 1: Can you add to that portfolio holding in tandem with
Speaker 1: your expectation that oil will continue to rally or does
Speaker 1: that go against sort of the fundamental ethos of the
Speaker 1: fund no, there is no there is no contradiction here.
Speaker 1: We can own the integrated oil companies. We think they
Speaker 1: have a very very important part to play in the
Speaker 1: in the in the green transition. Indeed, it's interesting when
Speaker 1: you look at the various um uh you know, uh
Speaker 1: ways that that they do. This is uh the yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, they're really on top of the technology and
Speaker 1: and very very important players. So we we really want
Speaker 1: to be the owner here, Nikolai. At a time of
Speaker 1: such great inflation, you've come out and you've talked about
Speaker 1: how you expect returns to be a lot lower in
Speaker 1: the years to come. How much lower and what are
Speaker 1: you doing to offset some of the obligations that you're
Speaker 1: gonna have to cover with the returns that you previously
Speaker 1: enjoyed but are not going to be getting. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: first of all, we are very very long term owner, right.
Speaker 1: We have an investment horizon of you know, thirty to
Speaker 1: two hundred years, so we're looking at this in the
Speaker 1: long term. But it's it's clear that we are now
Speaker 1: starting at a at a point where interest rates are
Speaker 1: extremely low, markets are very very high, Inflation is rampant
Speaker 1: across across the world, across sectors and so on. So
Speaker 1: this is not a great starting point. So therefore we
Speaker 1: do tell people and Norwegian people that they should expect
Speaker 1: lower returns going forward. I want to ask some more questions, Nikola.
Speaker 1: I want off script, but you just mentioned the word rampant,
Speaker 1: which the Financial Times headlines today is rampant inflation. Do
Speaker 1: you have an optimism that inflation will come in as
Speaker 1: we move on from the pandemic and we get our
Speaker 1: supply and demand dynamics globally straightened out. No, I think
Speaker 1: it would remain high for a long time. One more question,
Speaker 1: if I may, and this goes to your philanthropy. You're
Speaker 1: the largest collector of Nordic ard essentially in the world.
Speaker 1: With your vast wealth that you've garnered, you do have
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna call a Norwegian and Scandinavian perspective. Nikola.
Speaker 1: You have a hundred and twenty some mile border with
Speaker 1: Russia and Norway, and of course all eyes are to
Speaker 1: the east in Finland. What should be the Scandinavian response
Speaker 1: to the new Russia. Hey, that's a that's a tough question.
Speaker 1: I think that's beyond my level of expertise. I think
Speaker 1: you should ask you know all the people in NATO
Speaker 1: about that and uh and not me. Lay I guess
Speaker 1: that might be your answer. Thank you, sir for joining us.
Speaker 1: Nikola Tangan that of the Norwegian Wealth Fund. He is
Speaker 1: one of the great philanthropists of New York City. And
Speaker 1: of course Blackstone Front and center now and the debate
Speaker 1: on investment in real estate here Arsenal Bass, thank you,
Speaker 1: Tom John Gray, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: Of course black Stones President and CEO. Oh John, you
Speaker 1: just have come off of a quarter in which you
Speaker 1: brought more money in in three months than you often
Speaker 1: do in a single year. How does this continue into
Speaker 1: the new year with all the troubles we're seeing in
Speaker 1: the economy. Well, Shinali, it's great to be here. I
Speaker 1: just want to take a moment and talk about this
Speaker 1: quarter in the year we had which were amazing and
Speaker 1: the best in our firm's history. We had a hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty five billion of inflows, as you noted, in
Speaker 1: terms of record levels a U m up fort and
Speaker 1: it just reflects the fact that we continue to deliver
Speaker 1: for our clients. We had our best performance in our history,
Speaker 1: and we continue UH to broaden our platform investing with
Speaker 1: retail investors, insurance and so forth. And that's giving us
Speaker 1: powerful momentum and record results. How does this yeah continue? Yeah?
Speaker 1: With what with record results have also come record pay
Speaker 1: I mean the amount that you have risen your compensation
Speaker 1: and benefits has outpaced most of Wall Street. There's a
Speaker 1: war on talent going on out there, and I want
Speaker 1: to know how that positions you moving forward. Yes, So
Speaker 1: two things I'd say as it relates to talent. One
Speaker 1: of the great things about our business is we have
Speaker 1: this long term alignment where our investment professionals benefit from
Speaker 1: rising incentive fees and performance fees. So when we deliver
Speaker 1: for our customers, their compensation goes up. Obviously on a
Speaker 1: year like one. That bodes well for our individuals, and
Speaker 1: it creates variability in our comp structure if things head
Speaker 1: in the other direction. So we've got I think, a
Speaker 1: special position, and we've been able to pay our people
Speaker 1: well and still grow our margins. So we feel really
Speaker 1: good about that. You also asked about fundraising continuing, and
Speaker 1: on that point, what I'd say is, even with the
Speaker 1: markets off, the SNP is still up from where it
Speaker 1: was two years ago. And we're also seeing the fact
Speaker 1: that I think a lot of investors are gonna be
Speaker 1: looking to move out of fixed income, and we think
Speaker 1: alternatives in our firm will be a beneficiary. So on
Speaker 1: multiple fronts, we feel pretty good. Now. A lot of
Speaker 1: people are worried about the market today, but you're investing
Speaker 1: in firms for ten fifteen years down the road. So
Speaker 1: are you taking advantage of this opportunity to deploy more
Speaker 1: money in any case? Well, we certainly, as investors with
Speaker 1: new capital we have a hundred and thirty five billion
Speaker 1: of dry powder, recognize that prices, particularly in public markets
Speaker 1: and in sectors like technology, can create new opportunities for us.
Speaker 1: So yes, our teams are on the ground. We're looking
Speaker 1: for markets that have gotten potentially dislocated at times like this, Uh,
Speaker 1: investors can sort of throw the baby out with the bathwater,
Speaker 1: and that creates opportunities. So yeah, we're looking at things
Speaker 1: and it's helpful for new capital. On the entirety of
Speaker 1: small business. You have a real bird's eye view on
Speaker 1: small business America as some of these medium sized firms
Speaker 1: through your investments. How significant is the inflationary pressure at
Speaker 1: a time where we've been talking significantly about how big
Speaker 1: companies are able to withstand it a lot better. Look,
Speaker 1: I think inflationary pressures hitting everybody. It's hitting small businesses,
Speaker 1: it's hitting consumers, and it's hitting big businesses as well.
Speaker 1: I would say, stepping back, what's happening to the economy
Speaker 1: is really a series of shock, both demand and supply shock.
Speaker 1: On the demand side, the ten trillion of stimulus fiscal
Speaker 1: and monetary um has led everybody to have more consumption power,
Speaker 1: so you see people buying appliances and cars traveling. That's
Speaker 1: creating a huge demand pull shock. And on the supply side,
Speaker 1: you know, we've got shortages and energy and commodities, labor, housing,
Speaker 1: all those areas, and that's driving prices up. And so
Speaker 1: this definitely feels like it will be persistent. It's certainly pervasive,
Speaker 1: and companies have to alter to that. The companies that
Speaker 1: are most vulnerable are those who have a lot of
Speaker 1: input costs. So if you think about a business that
Speaker 1: has a lot of labor costs, or business that has
Speaker 1: a lot of raw materials and they don't have the
Speaker 1: ability to pass on price, maybe like a food manufacturer,
Speaker 1: that's those are businesses that are vulnerable. There are other businesses,
Speaker 1: of course, that have more pricing power and less exposure
Speaker 1: to those input costs. Fortunately, a lot of our portfolios
Speaker 1: oriented that way because we've been worried about inflation and
Speaker 1: ultimately the normalization of rates as well. John Jonathan, there
Speaker 1: is a concern here about a repricing in public markets,
Speaker 1: how far it has to go, and yet we have
Speaker 1: heard that we really have not seen that repricing and
Speaker 1: private markets people aren't selling, so you're not seeing that
Speaker 1: real time adjustment to this higher inflationary outlook. And frankly,
Speaker 1: a FED with a very different tone, do you expect
Speaker 1: the private markets to materially correct in the next six
Speaker 1: to twelve months. I think the private markets and public
Speaker 1: markets clearly correlate and and I would say sometimes there
Speaker 1: is a lag to your point, but oftentimes what you'll
Speaker 1: see as a slow down in private market activity, so
Speaker 1: you could see less companies being sold as people reprice
Speaker 1: assets a little bit. That can be the case. I
Speaker 1: think where it's probably most pronounced is in the technology
Speaker 1: and growth areas where the public markets have pulled back,
Speaker 1: and so I think on some of the rounds of
Speaker 1: some of the private companies, fast growing companies will be
Speaker 1: a reset that takes a little bit of time. But
Speaker 1: I would point out not all markets have pulled back.
Speaker 1: The real estate market, for instance, because the fundamentals are
Speaker 1: very strong, particularly the sectors were focused on. We're seeing
Speaker 1: pretty robust sales, and I think some sellers are thinking
Speaker 1: about selling. They're worried about rates. Um. So I'm not
Speaker 1: sure all markets have pulled back in the same way.
Speaker 1: But to your point, there is a lag at times
Speaker 1: in the private market. John, you mentioned a worry about
Speaker 1: rates twice in the last couple of minutes. I'm wondering
Speaker 1: what you think about what John waldron Over at Goldman
Speaker 1: Zachs had to say about what's gone on in the
Speaker 1: last couple of years, bringing into question the independence of
Speaker 1: the FED and its ability to really control the trajectory
Speaker 1: going forward. Well, there are lots of FED pundits. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm happy I've got my job. I'm not the FED chair.
Speaker 1: What I would say is, I'll focus on the future,
Speaker 1: because that's what really matters as investors, and I think
Speaker 1: the future is pretty clear that the FED realizes inflation
Speaker 1: has become elevated and they've got to modulate what they've
Speaker 1: been doing, and so they're gonna shrink the sides of
Speaker 1: their balance sheet. They're gonna raise rates and that's the
Speaker 1: new environment we're in, and as investors, I think you
Speaker 1: want to be thinking about that. You want to be
Speaker 1: thinking about an environment at least in the near to
Speaker 1: intermediate term where growth is actually pretty good, but inflation
Speaker 1: is running higher and the feed is raising rates, and
Speaker 1: you want to buy assets that can do better in
Speaker 1: that kind of environment. Jonathan Gray, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: With Blackstone their chief executive officer, and Sanela Basta, thank
Speaker 1: you so much jointing us. Now it's Markie pit Town
Speaker 1: Cidia poll folio managed at old Spring Global Investments. Markie
Speaker 1: your line, we think the recent sell off and volatility
Speaker 1: is not indicative of the market direction for the year.
Speaker 1: I read your notes and then I check the time
Speaker 1: you send that at once twenty Eastern time yesterday, So
Speaker 1: I wonder whether you changed your mind after you heard
Speaker 1: from Chairman pal uh No. I haven't. And I think
Speaker 1: once again the hallmark of the ft is they talk
Speaker 1: a lot tougher than their actions to talk about four
Speaker 1: rate increases, but at the same time the fedestal buying
Speaker 1: securities adding to its portfolio. So to me, you're really
Speaker 1: seeing mixed actions. We're not seeing the FED that's looking
Speaker 1: to tighten, and to see the FED aggressively tightened five
Speaker 1: times this year, I think is completely out of the
Speaker 1: question from the m O that the FED has been using,
Speaker 1: where they're just as focused on the economy and on
Speaker 1: unemployment and not as focused as as maybe market participants
Speaker 1: on slamming down inflation. Margie, you are a definitive student
Speaker 1: of how the financial system incorporations adapt and adjust to
Speaker 1: all this FED blather. Two ideas. Bill Ackman goes out,
Speaker 1: does the Treasury play, and then buys Netflix large. Let's
Speaker 1: call that the Akman gambit. And then this afternoon it's
Speaker 1: going to be what's it mean for Apple? What does
Speaker 1: all this FED guessing and the guessing of inflation, what's
Speaker 1: it mean for real people out in the real world.
Speaker 1: Like Bill Ackman, Well, I think we really once again
Speaker 1: have to look at earnings, and I think earnings are
Speaker 1: going to be pretty good. I think margins, the early
Speaker 1: leads margins by companies have been maintaining at these high
Speaker 1: historic levels, and I think that's key to stock pricing. Yes,
Speaker 1: we've seen some areas of the market, the more speculative,
Speaker 1: some of the overly popular names have a big cratering
Speaker 1: here in the last several months, but I don't think
Speaker 1: that's indicative of the total market and the ability generator earnings.
Speaker 1: So I think it will be pretty pretty good earning
Speaker 1: season and the markets vastly overreacting to what the earnings
Speaker 1: are going. To say, Margie, going back to the FED though,
Speaker 1: the fact that you can really struggle off the rhetoric
Speaker 1: that we heard that most people took a hawk ish
Speaker 1: You got some message from the fact that they didn't
Speaker 1: stop upond purchases at this meeting. Why is that so
Speaker 1: important to you? Well, I think it's important because that's
Speaker 1: been one of the things they've done to keep rates low,
Speaker 1: if you remember, that was the idea. And yet they're
Speaker 1: still continue with this buying program, even though they're also
Speaker 1: talking about we're going to be tough on raising rates.
Speaker 1: So to me, there's a real dichottic me there. Uh,
Speaker 1: they're not going to start to to taper really till
Speaker 1: till after March, and it seems to me that if
Speaker 1: they really were going to do something, we would see
Speaker 1: it now. And also I think that it's it's one
Speaker 1: thing to think that FED needs to slam on the brakes,
Speaker 1: crash inflation, therefore slow the economy and raise unemployment, and
Speaker 1: that would go against their other mandate, which is trying
Speaker 1: to maintain full employment. So I think to see wayes
Speaker 1: going up employment unemployment rates being very low. They're not
Speaker 1: too unhappy with what they're seeing, and they've never, uh
Speaker 1: at least recently, tried to overreact and anticipate the way
Speaker 1: the market would like to see them. Amount. We've seen
Speaker 1: some big moves at the index level in the security market,
Speaker 1: even bigger ones beneath the surface. What have you been
Speaker 1: doing to start the year. What have you've been doing
Speaker 1: in the portfolio? Well, actually, I've been looking to add
Speaker 1: incrementally where some names have gotten hit. There are a
Speaker 1: lot of great names that peaked maybe in the fall,
Speaker 1: say November, even December, and a lot of those names
Speaker 1: are down. Maybe over that period. Maybe You're to day
Speaker 1: came down say five, But I think that's the reasonable
Speaker 1: price discount for companies that look pretty attractive long term. John,
Speaker 1: it's the highlight of the day to see someone who's
Speaker 1: August as Margie Patel embraced the modern language of cratering,
Speaker 1: Never did I think I would hear that you claimed,
Speaker 1: Markie patell say something was greater. That's great, Sprint Global
Speaker 1: Investments mark out with you. Thank you. How do we
Speaker 1: adapt to China GDP? Come on, that's a that's from
Speaker 1: that's a China statistic. I mean, we're going to put
Speaker 1: Johns on this in a moment. That's a China statistic
Speaker 1: from fifteen years ago. Well, it's you got to subtract
Speaker 1: the inflation rate out of that, so that that's not
Speaker 1: as good as news, but six is pretty good. We
Speaker 1: can't really compare our GDP numbers to China's only a
Speaker 1: whole lot. Only Kathleen Best Johnson can do that. She
Speaker 1: joins us down Chief US Financial Economists, Actor and economics. Kathleen,
Speaker 1: how do we go from the oddities of this moment
Speaker 1: and the look back to fourth quarter to the slamming
Speaker 1: on the brakes that's predicted. How do we affect that
Speaker 1: as an economy as a nation. Well, we we've had
Speaker 1: a bumpy ride here with the pandemic. We've had outside
Speaker 1: gains in any given quarter and then we see a
Speaker 1: pull back and and this is no exception. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: I think the Amicron variant, while it was less virulent
Speaker 1: certainly still tamped down on economic activity, and you know,
Speaker 1: beneath those numbers, you know, typically I would just comment that,
Speaker 1: you know, typically when inventories are up as much as
Speaker 1: they are contributing four point nine percent, that would be
Speaker 1: bad and it would weigh on growth. But this time
Speaker 1: I think Mike's right, it's actually a positive sign. Maybe
Speaker 1: supply chains are easy and we'll actually have some goods
Speaker 1: for consumers to purchase once we get past this winter.
Speaker 1: Low Kath, Hey, we gotta jump straight to the FED.
Speaker 1: I just wouldn't you initial thoughts after that news conference yesterday,
Speaker 1: which just got so many people's attention. I was more
Speaker 1: surprised by how much you revealed. I didn't expect that yesterday. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I I would agree. I was also surprised we didn't
Speaker 1: get a little bit of a pushback when asked whether
Speaker 1: the FED would would be comfortable, you know, going every
Speaker 1: meeting in his fifty basis points on the table um,
Speaker 1: he really steered away from that, said, well, we have
Speaker 1: no plans. We gave no guidance, but in a sense
Speaker 1: he gave us guided saying that's quite possible. It's not
Speaker 1: maybe their base case, um, but but you can't deny
Speaker 1: that that's at least them something considering, and inflation is
Speaker 1: the number one thing that they're aiming at right now. Cathy,
Speaker 1: do agree with Matt Lazettie over at Deutsche Bank Asan
Speaker 1: was highlighting earlier, who talked about front loading the rate
Speaker 1: hikes and then seeing what effect, if any, that has
Speaker 1: on inflation in the back half of the year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think the one concern that I have, it is
Speaker 1: a big concern, is as the fallout in the financial markets,
Speaker 1: because we know that actually feeds into financial conditions. So
Speaker 1: you could have an unwanted, really choking of economic activity
Speaker 1: where we're so trying to get the full employment right,
Speaker 1: maximum and inclusive employment. So I think that's the risk
Speaker 1: for the Fed. Guess they want to tame inflation, but
Speaker 1: you don't want to kill off the expansion while you're
Speaker 1: doing it. So the market is not the economy. That's
Speaker 1: the common trope out of Wall Street. So from your perspective,
Speaker 1: how much of a selloff would it take for it
Speaker 1: to actually trickle into the real economy. Well, we look,
Speaker 1: I guess it would have sound like Gairman poal, We
Speaker 1: look at the broad financial conditions, so we have our
Speaker 1: own index. Others do too, so it would be more
Speaker 1: than just the equity market. But it does figure prominently
Speaker 1: the VIX index, the move index in the bond market
Speaker 1: that the spread right in the intends to TuS and
Speaker 1: the corporate bond your curve. So you know, if we
Speaker 1: see meaningfully tightening um, one sense of FED would be
Speaker 1: happy with that. I guess it can't be disorderly. If
Speaker 1: it starts to be to go borderline disorderly, then then
Speaker 1: that's going to be a real signal for the FED
Speaker 1: that they need to be careful and slow down. Cathy,
Speaker 1: this is a difficult one to answer I now, so
Speaker 1: take as much time as you need. But the difference
Speaker 1: between orderly and disorderly, what is the dividing line between
Speaker 1: orderly and disorderly, Well, it's there is there's no quantitative,
Speaker 1: exact benchmark that we can use. Um. You kind of
Speaker 1: know it or see it right when it's happening, and
Speaker 1: we know what things like the treasury market has trouble,
Speaker 1: you know, filling orders, or you get a gap between
Speaker 1: on the run and off the run. I know that's
Speaker 1: a bit in the big weeds. But if you get
Speaker 1: a breakdown and kind of the normal function in the markets.
Speaker 1: That's a real big red flag. But I also think
Speaker 1: if we start stocks, you know, let's put it this way,
Speaker 1: typically you don't see a bear market in the equity
Speaker 1: market musts we're going into recession um And you don't
Speaker 1: see the your curve inverting typically unless we're heading to recession.
Speaker 1: So those are sort of the extreme benchmarks. I think
Speaker 1: that we would you know, the FED would be looking
Speaker 1: at ket You got one more question. Scott Miners stopped
Speaker 1: the show yesterday with the study of the late nineteen
Speaker 1: forties in defense of Mr Minor and people laughing at
Speaker 1: a study of forty one, the fact is, boy, does
Speaker 1: it look the same. Do you see elements here of
Speaker 1: the late nineteen forties where we could crash into a
Speaker 1: serious disinflation or outright Eisenhower deflation. Well, it's something we
Speaker 1: internally are debating actually as a team. Is you know,
Speaker 1: right now inflation is running hot and it may continue
Speaker 1: to but at some point Fed titans, physical policies tightening
Speaker 1: and supply chains come online. The second half of the year,
Speaker 1: you get pretty big disinflation and at some categories, right
Speaker 1: like used car prices, we would expect to see outright
Speaker 1: deflation and falling crisis. So I do think that once
Speaker 1: we get past this inflation hump, however you want to
Speaker 1: characterize it, but we look at it's kind of a
Speaker 1: hub um. You're in for more disinflation pressures and kind
Speaker 1: of back to the old norm. Kathy, thank you. It
Speaker 1: was excited to catch up with you this morning. Thanks
Speaker 1: O bam with us. That GDP print just fantastic canticles.
Speaker 1: Chance it's that. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten
Speaker 1: am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each
Speaker 1: day from six to nine am for insight from the
Speaker 1: best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe
Speaker 1: to the Surveillance podcast on Apple, podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 1: and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg