Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best Idea and
Speaker 1: we welcome all of you. Of course, big big week
Speaker 1: here earning start tomorrow. We'll have full coverage of the
Speaker 1: major bank earnings and so much other news flow as well.
Speaker 1: We thank Rob Carroll and particularly our Bloomberg meteorologist every
Speaker 1: time he's on. I learned of the geography, the topology,
Speaker 1: the weather of this disaster in l A great set
Speaker 1: of guests today. We started early today with Stuart Kaiser,
Speaker 1: a city group always looking at equities. Some enthusiasm there,
Speaker 1: but then we talked to Stuart Kaiser about yield.
Speaker 2: If you think of the term structure, we would say
Speaker 2: the two year yield is about Fed policy. The third
Speaker 2: year yield there's more about inflation. The tenure yield and
Speaker 2: our view reflects more growth expectations. So the fact that
Speaker 2: the tenure has moved, yes, it's a bit of a
Speaker 2: risk because it's moved quick. You would be a lot
Speaker 2: of that's coming from the growth side of things, payrolls
Speaker 2: last week in particular, And in that sense it's not
Speaker 2: necessarily as bad for equity markets as a lot of
Speaker 2: people are concerned about.
Speaker 1: Stuart Kaiser, City Group and again looking at the equity market,
Speaker 1: so you notice the pullback and maybe with a yield,
Speaker 1: still some enthusiasm for earnings. And again we dive into
Speaker 1: that earning season tomorrow, and not just about the banks.
Speaker 1: It will be an eventful three four in even five
Speaker 1: weeks as well. We talked to Stephen Stanley. He's at Santander.
Speaker 1: He is an award winning economist, really really good at
Speaker 1: the granular nature. Here's Stephen Stanley on the American economy.
Speaker 3: I think that the economy is likely to be slower
Speaker 3: in the near term, and I think the easy explanation
Speaker 3: for that is that businesses are uncertain. We've got a
Speaker 3: lot of policy questions to be resolved, and so I
Speaker 3: think a lot of businesses that probably, even though they've
Speaker 3: we've seen business optimism pick up, I think businesses are
Speaker 3: sitting on the sidelines waiting to see So I think
Speaker 3: for me, the first half of twenty twenty five should
Speaker 3: be the slowest period, and then as we get certainty
Speaker 3: on policy, I think things start to pick up again.
Speaker 3: The question really is are we getting a slow down
Speaker 3: in the labor market. Last Friday's numbers would say no.
Speaker 3: You know, I would argue that we're still slowly seeing
Speaker 3: job growth moderate. I do think the unemployment rate will
Speaker 3: tick up a little bit in twenty twenty five, and
Speaker 3: that gives the Fed a little bit of a reason
Speaker 3: maybe to move closer to their view.
Speaker 1: We're neutralists, Stephen stain there, and I really can't say
Speaker 1: enough about oppression and talk less of is business investment.
Speaker 1: The core equation is why or our output equals C
Speaker 1: plus I plus G and then the trade on the
Speaker 1: back end, so that's consumption plus investment plus the government
Speaker 1: a part and then net exports as well, which is
Speaker 1: exports minus imports. And all of this is important but
Speaker 1: less talked about, particularly in financial media, is the eye
Speaker 1: is investment? Off the top of my head, it makes
Speaker 1: up I think it's eleven percent of the economy. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's more. I stand corrected if I'm wrong, But Stephen
Speaker 1: Stanley saying that's one of his wild cards for the
Speaker 1: first half of twenty twenty five. What will be the
Speaker 1: appetite of business to move forward in the first half
Speaker 1: of the year. We thank you for your listen on
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