WEBVTT - Paul Ryan Talks Elections and Populism

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. There's a lot to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about.

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<v Speaker 2>It feels like geopolitics and politics domestically and abroad are

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<v Speaker 2>all over the place.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning, Frenzy, Nice to see you as well. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>I think they are all over the place. I'm here

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<v Speaker 3>in London as vice chairman of TENEO, a CEO advisory firm,

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<v Speaker 3>and we're basically advising our clients who see a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of unpredictability on the horizon and they're trying to scenario

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<v Speaker 3>plan for which way various governments are going to go.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a little easier to predict here, I think than

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<v Speaker 3>it is in my country, which is a razor thin

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<v Speaker 3>polling an election, and it's just hard to determine who's

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<v Speaker 3>going to win the election. Therefore, you has a scenario

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<v Speaker 3>plan on very two different potential administrations.

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<v Speaker 2>So can you talk to us about those scenarios. Is

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<v Speaker 2>it impossible to know who will win come November now?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think it's just too close to call if

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<v Speaker 3>you really want to look at it. If this thing

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<v Speaker 3>is tied in polling going into the election, which is

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<v Speaker 3>probably the likeliest of scenarios because right now Trump is

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<v Speaker 3>polling at peak, Biden is pulling below his is peak performance.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's just assume Democrats come home at the end of

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<v Speaker 3>the day as they typically do. It's probably going to

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<v Speaker 3>be a few hundred thousand voters in about five or

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<v Speaker 3>six states that will determine the occom of this election.

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<v Speaker 4>My state of Wisconsin is one of those.

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<v Speaker 3>Trump won it by twenty five thousand votes out of

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<v Speaker 3>one point six one million cast in twenty sixteen, and

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<v Speaker 3>then he lost it to Biden by twenty thousand votes.

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<v Speaker 4>It's just that close.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is what campaigning what makes a difference. Is it,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the candidates showing up or is it big policies.

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<v Speaker 3>On their turnout campaigning candidates showing up the ground game

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<v Speaker 3>way as we describe it, and getting your turnout organization going.

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<v Speaker 3>But really, at the end of the day, it comes

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<v Speaker 3>down to the new swing voter in America, which is

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<v Speaker 3>a suburban, college educated swing voter. And let's go back

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<v Speaker 3>to Wisconsin for example, out of one point sixty one

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<v Speaker 3>million cast, fifty three thousand wisconsinights that's what we call

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<v Speaker 3>ourselves in the suburban part of Wisconsin didn't vote for Trump,

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<v Speaker 3>but vote for every other Republican on the ballots and

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<v Speaker 3>then twenty thousand of those fifty three thousand voter for Biden,

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<v Speaker 3>giving him the twenty thousand margin of victory.

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<v Speaker 4>That he got. It's just that close.

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<v Speaker 3>There's probably going to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania.

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<v Speaker 1>So too close to call.

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<v Speaker 2>What close to call what weapons If Donald Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>in the White House.

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<v Speaker 3>On tax policy, personally, I think it will be much better,

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<v Speaker 3>and a lot of a lot of executives sy it

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<v Speaker 3>that way, because we have to remember that our tax

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<v Speaker 3>law that we wrote in twenty seventeen, on the individual

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<v Speaker 3>side of that tax code has many expiring provisions, some

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<v Speaker 3>of which hit small and medium sized businesses, and then

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<v Speaker 3>we have some corporate provisions like research and development, tax

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<v Speaker 3>credit expensing provisions.

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<v Speaker 4>Those are all for grabs.

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<v Speaker 3>The next presidency will help determine what happens there. So

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<v Speaker 3>you know Trump's going to be more pro business on taxes.

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<v Speaker 3>Biden is proposing to get rid of those things. And

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<v Speaker 3>then it comes to tariffs. Trump's proposing a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>tariff increases. Biden hasn't reduced the Trump tariffs. He's continued

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<v Speaker 3>those terriffs. But I don't think he's proposing a whole

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<v Speaker 3>new range of tariffs with respect to everything but China

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<v Speaker 3>and trying to you basically have a bipartisan consensus.

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<v Speaker 2>So you've called Donald Trump onfit for office. Are you

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<v Speaker 2>surprised at the amount of money of Wall Street titans

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<v Speaker 2>behind Trump?

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<v Speaker 4>No, because I think it's too close to call.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think people are basically trying to hedge their

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<v Speaker 3>bets into They don't know who's going to win the

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<v Speaker 3>White House, so I think they want to basically make

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<v Speaker 3>sure that they understand which direction the country's going to

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<v Speaker 3>go and which administration which they do not.

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<v Speaker 4>Know, will take place.

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<v Speaker 3>That's what we basically help our clients at TANAO do,

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<v Speaker 3>which is, you know, if what's trade going to look

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<v Speaker 3>like another administration, what are regulation is going to look like,

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<v Speaker 3>what's mergers and acquisitions? And I trust going to look

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<v Speaker 3>like etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, And right now it's just too

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<v Speaker 3>tight to see. So you have to plan for both contingencies.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, how much how often do you get asked about

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<v Speaker 2>budgets and the debt?

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<v Speaker 3>Ste that's my hobby horse, that's my biggest That's what

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<v Speaker 3>I used to do in Congress, I was fiscal policy

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<v Speaker 3>is my thing. I'm very concerned about this. The reason

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<v Speaker 3>I'm one of the reasons why I'm frustrated, irustrated like

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<v Speaker 3>many Americans about our choices for president, is neither is

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<v Speaker 3>proposing to do anything about a come debt crisis in

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<v Speaker 3>our country. Our debt is already as large as our economy.

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<v Speaker 3>It's going to go nowhere but twice as big as that.

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<v Speaker 3>And so we have an entitlement problem, which is these

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<v Speaker 3>entitlement programs are going bankrupt by the end of the decade,

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<v Speaker 3>and so no one's proposing to solve that. We have

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<v Speaker 3>to get ahead of that otherwise we're going to have

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<v Speaker 3>a debt crisis in America. And it's not inconceivable to

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<v Speaker 3>have a treasury auction failure in a short period of time.

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<v Speaker 1>So what's a short period of time in the next.

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<v Speaker 4>Six months after we're done cutting interest rates?

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<v Speaker 3>So if you're going into an interest rate cutting environment,

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<v Speaker 3>you're gonna be able to sell your bonds. Jaypol just

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<v Speaker 3>said he's going to do only one rate cut this year.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's just assume it's in December, and then a number

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<v Speaker 3>of rate cuts if all things work according to plan

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<v Speaker 3>in twenty twenty five. So the question is, by let's

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<v Speaker 3>just assume, say twenty twenty six. It's really hard to

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<v Speaker 3>put a finger on these things. Do we have clarity

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<v Speaker 3>in our fiscal policy? Have we done what we need

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<v Speaker 3>to do to get our balance sheet in a good place?

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<v Speaker 3>And right now both of our candidates for president are

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<v Speaker 3>proposing to do a single thing about it. I think

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<v Speaker 3>the only shot we have, given that political reality, is

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<v Speaker 3>perhaps an untitoment commission, but one with teeth that requires

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<v Speaker 3>Congress to vote on it. I served on both Simpson

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<v Speaker 3>the last time we had one of these things, and

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<v Speaker 3>it could it could be ignored by the president in Congress,

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<v Speaker 3>and it was. So you have to have an entitlement

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<v Speaker 3>commission that says Congress is going to have to vote

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<v Speaker 3>on this up or down, no filibuster or no amendments,

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<v Speaker 3>and then hopefully you have a president that's willing to

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<v Speaker 3>accept its results.

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<v Speaker 4>If you've provided they're substantial.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's in my opinion, the best way we get

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<v Speaker 3>out of short of Congress actually doing his job and

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<v Speaker 3>fixing this problem, is the way we get out of

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<v Speaker 3>the ditch.

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<v Speaker 1>What are the.

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<v Speaker 2>Chances of Congress actually taking a more, I guess fiscally

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<v Speaker 2>responsibly approached and trying to fix it.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Y, remember we have to have economic growth, and

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<v Speaker 3>if you have a massive tax increase on businesses and individuals,

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<v Speaker 3>you can really harm growth. My guess is we're going

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<v Speaker 3>to have divided government of some form. It's pretty clear

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<v Speaker 3>to me that we're going to win the US Senate

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<v Speaker 3>because of the way the Senate map is laid out.

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<v Speaker 4>So let's just.

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<v Speaker 3>Assume for the sake of argument, we have divided government.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's the likeliest assumption, and then you're going

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<v Speaker 3>to have to have a negotiation on tax policy in

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<v Speaker 3>the next session of Congress. And what that looks like

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<v Speaker 3>is basically what we try to help scenario plan. But

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<v Speaker 3>that's definitely going to happen. One thing people don't in

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<v Speaker 3>the content and understand as much as most of our

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<v Speaker 3>businesses are not taxes corporations, their taxes individuals, and that

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<v Speaker 3>provision that lowers their tax rates so that their tax

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<v Speaker 3>rates are commensurate with corporations, the larger companies goes away.

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<v Speaker 4>So you could have a tax.

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<v Speaker 3>Rate on small businesses medium sized business as high as

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<v Speaker 3>forty six percent. In this forty four point six percent

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<v Speaker 3>in America and that's that would be a massive tax

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<v Speaker 3>increase on businesses. I don't think anybody wants to see

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<v Speaker 3>that happen. But there's not clarity as to whether or

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<v Speaker 3>not they're going to fix this or not.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, when you go around and speak to chief executives,

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<v Speaker 2>what is the one thing that they actually underestimate? I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know whether it's geopolosy. We have Putin also meeting

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<v Speaker 2>with you know, in North Korea's jim Own. Is that

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<v Speaker 2>going to trade change trade relations across the world, and

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<v Speaker 2>is that what we're underestimating.

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<v Speaker 3>I think uncertainty is the number one problem. So there's

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<v Speaker 3>so much uncertainty. There's geopolitics, there's NATO, there's Ukraine, there's Putin,

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<v Speaker 3>there's there's there's conflict with China, you have you have

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<v Speaker 3>a war in the Middle East, and then also by

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<v Speaker 3>the way, you have a bunch of tariffs that are

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<v Speaker 3>being proposed. So you just don't know what's going to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't know what anti trust laws are going to

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<v Speaker 3>look like. If Biden gets the second term, is you're

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<v Speaker 3>going to double down on lots of regulations. So you

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<v Speaker 3>just don't know not to mention all the geopolitical risks

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<v Speaker 3>that are outside of any government's control. So that's what

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<v Speaker 3>what what CEOs are trying to prepare for, and what do.

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<v Speaker 1>You tell them? Just be nimble and prepared for.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, here's what DOR one looks like. Here's what door

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<v Speaker 3>two looks like. You you want to you want to

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<v Speaker 3>continue Z plan for both both scenarios.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but how impossible is it to say, actually what

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<v Speaker 2>door one looks like? Given the unpremative ability of Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump at the past.

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<v Speaker 4>It's out getting into all the details.

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<v Speaker 3>I think on tax and regulatory policy, it's pretty predictable.

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<v Speaker 3>On tariffs, just listen to what he's proposing. I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's just that clear. And then you have to plan accordingly.

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<v Speaker 3>On regulations. With Biden, I don't think you should expect

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<v Speaker 3>him to do anything different than what he's doing now,

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<v Speaker 3>which is a lot of regulations. I think if Trump

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<v Speaker 3>gets in, you have less regulations, so you have to

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<v Speaker 3>go through all those kinds of scenarios.

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<v Speaker 2>What's your Republican party going to look like? I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>you were once one of the great hopefuls. Do you

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<v Speaker 2>see still a place for you in it?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I am still a Republican of course, I consider

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<v Speaker 3>myself an anti establishment Republican. Take Trump has taken over

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<v Speaker 3>the Republican Party, it's really a populism without any anchor

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<v Speaker 3>to principles. I'm a big believer that you want your

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<v Speaker 3>party pledging fidelity to a set of principles and policies

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<v Speaker 3>that solve problems versus a person And I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>a personality type politics is durable. So I do think

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<v Speaker 3>at the end of the day, our party, like we

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<v Speaker 3>have in the past, will have a big discussion about

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<v Speaker 3>what we stand for, what are our ideas, what are

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<v Speaker 3>our principles, and who the best people capable of carrying.

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<v Speaker 4>Those ideas forward.

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<v Speaker 3>That's not the conversation we're having right now, but he's

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<v Speaker 3>gonna be. If Trump wins, he's a one term president.

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<v Speaker 3>He cannot have a second term because he already had one.

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<v Speaker 3>So I just don't think it's durable, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to have to have, you know, a real,

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<v Speaker 3>real calling as to what we stand for.

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<v Speaker 2>And if he doesn't win, is that when you have

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<v Speaker 2>that Congress, that happens sooner rather than later.

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<v Speaker 1>And who do you think, I mean, where do you

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<v Speaker 1>see that's a.

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<v Speaker 4>Goodque we have a great bench of talent.

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<v Speaker 3>We have a lot of really good effective governors. We've

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<v Speaker 3>got a bunch of new people that have come to Congress.

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<v Speaker 3>So I'm not worried about our death of our talent pool.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just the shadow that Trump casts over our party

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<v Speaker 3>is dominant. And when that shadow goes, whether it's in

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<v Speaker 3>one or four years, then you're going to have a

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<v Speaker 3>more lively discussion about what is the conservative movement in America?

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<v Speaker 4>What does the Republican Party stand for?

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<v Speaker 2>So crypto, you're also a believer, kind of a proponent

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<v Speaker 2>of crypto.

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<v Speaker 1>Where do you see it?

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<v Speaker 3>I think blockchain has a lot of use cases central banks. Yeah, so, well,

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<v Speaker 3>what I proposed the other day is that we should

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<v Speaker 3>advance stable coin legislation because stable coins actually creates a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of new demand for US debt. So we talked

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<v Speaker 3>to Submitted earlier about potential treasury auction failures. What it

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<v Speaker 3>would be nice if we created more demand for our

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<v Speaker 3>debt and if we had a law which by parison,

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<v Speaker 3>this is by partisan support for in Congress, to advance

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<v Speaker 3>stable coins. I think that helps put the dollar in

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<v Speaker 3>the digital world. It helps give people who have bad

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<v Speaker 3>currencies in some countries digital dollars, and it creates new

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<v Speaker 3>demand for our debt. So I think there are a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of good, interesting, exciting use cases for blockchain for

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<v Speaker 3>Web three stable coins is one of them, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think it actually helps solve some of our physical.

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<v Speaker 4>Problems as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that happen under Trump? Provide?

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<v Speaker 3>I think it happens out there either because it has

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<v Speaker 3>by partisan support.

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<v Speaker 4>It's really a matter of if not when