Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. There's a lot to
Speaker 1: talk about.
Speaker 2: It feels like geopolitics and politics domestically and abroad are
Speaker 2: all over the place.
Speaker 3: Good morning, Frenzy, Nice to see you as well. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I think they are all over the place. I'm here
Speaker 3: in London as vice chairman of TENEO, a CEO advisory firm,
Speaker 3: and we're basically advising our clients who see a lot
Speaker 3: of unpredictability on the horizon and they're trying to scenario
Speaker 3: plan for which way various governments are going to go.
Speaker 3: It's a little easier to predict here, I think than
Speaker 3: it is in my country, which is a razor thin
Speaker 3: polling an election, and it's just hard to determine who's
Speaker 3: going to win the election. Therefore, you has a scenario
Speaker 3: plan on very two different potential administrations.
Speaker 2: So can you talk to us about those scenarios. Is
Speaker 2: it impossible to know who will win come November now?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's just too close to call if
Speaker 3: you really want to look at it. If this thing
Speaker 3: is tied in polling going into the election, which is
Speaker 3: probably the likeliest of scenarios because right now Trump is
Speaker 3: polling at peak, Biden is pulling below his is peak performance.
Speaker 3: Let's just assume Democrats come home at the end of
Speaker 3: the day as they typically do. It's probably going to
Speaker 3: be a few hundred thousand voters in about five or
Speaker 3: six states that will determine the occom of this election.
Speaker 4: My state of Wisconsin is one of those.
Speaker 3: Trump won it by twenty five thousand votes out of
Speaker 3: one point six one million cast in twenty sixteen, and
Speaker 3: then he lost it to Biden by twenty thousand votes.
Speaker 4: It's just that close.
Speaker 2: And this is what campaigning what makes a difference. Is it,
Speaker 2: you know, the candidates showing up or is it big policies.
Speaker 3: On their turnout campaigning candidates showing up the ground game
Speaker 3: way as we describe it, and getting your turnout organization going.
Speaker 3: But really, at the end of the day, it comes
Speaker 3: down to the new swing voter in America, which is
Speaker 3: a suburban, college educated swing voter. And let's go back
Speaker 3: to Wisconsin for example, out of one point sixty one
Speaker 3: million cast, fifty three thousand wisconsinights that's what we call
Speaker 3: ourselves in the suburban part of Wisconsin didn't vote for Trump,
Speaker 3: but vote for every other Republican on the ballots and
Speaker 3: then twenty thousand of those fifty three thousand voter for Biden,
Speaker 3: giving him the twenty thousand margin of victory.
Speaker 4: That he got. It's just that close.
Speaker 3: There's probably going to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1: So too close to call.
Speaker 2: What close to call what weapons If Donald Trump is
Speaker 2: in the White House.
Speaker 3: On tax policy, personally, I think it will be much better,
Speaker 3: and a lot of a lot of executives sy it
Speaker 3: that way, because we have to remember that our tax
Speaker 3: law that we wrote in twenty seventeen, on the individual
Speaker 3: side of that tax code has many expiring provisions, some
Speaker 3: of which hit small and medium sized businesses, and then
Speaker 3: we have some corporate provisions like research and development, tax
Speaker 3: credit expensing provisions.
Speaker 4: Those are all for grabs.
Speaker 3: The next presidency will help determine what happens there. So
Speaker 3: you know Trump's going to be more pro business on taxes.
Speaker 3: Biden is proposing to get rid of those things. And
Speaker 3: then it comes to tariffs. Trump's proposing a lot of
Speaker 3: tariff increases. Biden hasn't reduced the Trump tariffs. He's continued
Speaker 3: those terriffs. But I don't think he's proposing a whole
Speaker 3: new range of tariffs with respect to everything but China
Speaker 3: and trying to you basically have a bipartisan consensus.
Speaker 2: So you've called Donald Trump onfit for office. Are you
Speaker 2: surprised at the amount of money of Wall Street titans
Speaker 2: behind Trump?
Speaker 4: No, because I think it's too close to call.
Speaker 3: And I think people are basically trying to hedge their
Speaker 3: bets into They don't know who's going to win the
Speaker 3: White House, so I think they want to basically make
Speaker 3: sure that they understand which direction the country's going to
Speaker 3: go and which administration which they do not.
Speaker 4: Know, will take place.
Speaker 3: That's what we basically help our clients at TANAO do,
Speaker 3: which is, you know, if what's trade going to look
Speaker 3: like another administration, what are regulation is going to look like,
Speaker 3: what's mergers and acquisitions? And I trust going to look
Speaker 3: like etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, And right now it's just too
Speaker 3: tight to see. So you have to plan for both contingencies.
Speaker 2: Okay, how much how often do you get asked about
Speaker 2: budgets and the debt?
Speaker 3: Ste that's my hobby horse, that's my biggest That's what
Speaker 3: I used to do in Congress, I was fiscal policy
Speaker 3: is my thing. I'm very concerned about this. The reason
Speaker 3: I'm one of the reasons why I'm frustrated, irustrated like
Speaker 3: many Americans about our choices for president, is neither is
Speaker 3: proposing to do anything about a come debt crisis in
Speaker 3: our country. Our debt is already as large as our economy.
Speaker 3: It's going to go nowhere but twice as big as that.
Speaker 3: And so we have an entitlement problem, which is these
Speaker 3: entitlement programs are going bankrupt by the end of the decade,
Speaker 3: and so no one's proposing to solve that. We have
Speaker 3: to get ahead of that otherwise we're going to have
Speaker 3: a debt crisis in America. And it's not inconceivable to
Speaker 3: have a treasury auction failure in a short period of time.
Speaker 1: So what's a short period of time in the next.
Speaker 4: Six months after we're done cutting interest rates?
Speaker 3: So if you're going into an interest rate cutting environment,
Speaker 3: you're gonna be able to sell your bonds. Jaypol just
Speaker 3: said he's going to do only one rate cut this year.
Speaker 3: Let's just assume it's in December, and then a number
Speaker 3: of rate cuts if all things work according to plan
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty five. So the question is, by let's
Speaker 3: just assume, say twenty twenty six. It's really hard to
Speaker 3: put a finger on these things. Do we have clarity
Speaker 3: in our fiscal policy? Have we done what we need
Speaker 3: to do to get our balance sheet in a good place?
Speaker 3: And right now both of our candidates for president are
Speaker 3: proposing to do a single thing about it. I think
Speaker 3: the only shot we have, given that political reality, is
Speaker 3: perhaps an untitoment commission, but one with teeth that requires
Speaker 3: Congress to vote on it. I served on both Simpson
Speaker 3: the last time we had one of these things, and
Speaker 3: it could it could be ignored by the president in Congress,
Speaker 3: and it was. So you have to have an entitlement
Speaker 3: commission that says Congress is going to have to vote
Speaker 3: on this up or down, no filibuster or no amendments,
Speaker 3: and then hopefully you have a president that's willing to
Speaker 3: accept its results.
Speaker 4: If you've provided they're substantial.
Speaker 3: And that's in my opinion, the best way we get
Speaker 3: out of short of Congress actually doing his job and
Speaker 3: fixing this problem, is the way we get out of
Speaker 3: the ditch.
Speaker 1: What are the.
Speaker 2: Chances of Congress actually taking a more, I guess fiscally
Speaker 2: responsibly approached and trying to fix it.
Speaker 3: Well, Y, remember we have to have economic growth, and
Speaker 3: if you have a massive tax increase on businesses and individuals,
Speaker 3: you can really harm growth. My guess is we're going
Speaker 3: to have divided government of some form. It's pretty clear
Speaker 3: to me that we're going to win the US Senate
Speaker 3: because of the way the Senate map is laid out.
Speaker 4: So let's just.
Speaker 3: Assume for the sake of argument, we have divided government.
Speaker 3: I think that's the likeliest assumption, and then you're going
Speaker 3: to have to have a negotiation on tax policy in
Speaker 3: the next session of Congress. And what that looks like
Speaker 3: is basically what we try to help scenario plan. But
Speaker 3: that's definitely going to happen. One thing people don't in
Speaker 3: the content and understand as much as most of our
Speaker 3: businesses are not taxes corporations, their taxes individuals, and that
Speaker 3: provision that lowers their tax rates so that their tax
Speaker 3: rates are commensurate with corporations, the larger companies goes away.
Speaker 4: So you could have a tax.
Speaker 3: Rate on small businesses medium sized business as high as
Speaker 3: forty six percent. In this forty four point six percent
Speaker 3: in America and that's that would be a massive tax
Speaker 3: increase on businesses. I don't think anybody wants to see
Speaker 3: that happen. But there's not clarity as to whether or
Speaker 3: not they're going to fix this or not.
Speaker 2: Well, when you go around and speak to chief executives,
Speaker 2: what is the one thing that they actually underestimate? I
Speaker 2: don't know whether it's geopolosy. We have Putin also meeting
Speaker 2: with you know, in North Korea's jim Own. Is that
Speaker 2: going to trade change trade relations across the world, and
Speaker 2: is that what we're underestimating.
Speaker 3: I think uncertainty is the number one problem. So there's
Speaker 3: so much uncertainty. There's geopolitics, there's NATO, there's Ukraine, there's Putin,
Speaker 3: there's there's there's conflict with China, you have you have
Speaker 3: a war in the Middle East, and then also by
Speaker 3: the way, you have a bunch of tariffs that are
Speaker 3: being proposed. So you just don't know what's going to happen.
Speaker 3: We don't know what anti trust laws are going to
Speaker 3: look like. If Biden gets the second term, is you're
Speaker 3: going to double down on lots of regulations. So you
Speaker 3: just don't know not to mention all the geopolitical risks
Speaker 3: that are outside of any government's control. So that's what
Speaker 3: what what CEOs are trying to prepare for, and what do.
Speaker 1: You tell them? Just be nimble and prepared for.
Speaker 3: Yeah, here's what DOR one looks like. Here's what door
Speaker 3: two looks like. You you want to you want to
Speaker 3: continue Z plan for both both scenarios.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but how impossible is it to say, actually what
Speaker 2: door one looks like? Given the unpremative ability of Donald
Speaker 2: Trump at the past.
Speaker 4: It's out getting into all the details.
Speaker 3: I think on tax and regulatory policy, it's pretty predictable.
Speaker 3: On tariffs, just listen to what he's proposing. I think
Speaker 3: it's just that clear. And then you have to plan accordingly.
Speaker 3: On regulations. With Biden, I don't think you should expect
Speaker 3: him to do anything different than what he's doing now,
Speaker 3: which is a lot of regulations. I think if Trump
Speaker 3: gets in, you have less regulations, so you have to
Speaker 3: go through all those kinds of scenarios.
Speaker 2: What's your Republican party going to look like? I mean,
Speaker 2: you were once one of the great hopefuls. Do you
Speaker 2: see still a place for you in it?
Speaker 3: Well, I am still a Republican of course, I consider
Speaker 3: myself an anti establishment Republican. Take Trump has taken over
Speaker 3: the Republican Party, it's really a populism without any anchor
Speaker 3: to principles. I'm a big believer that you want your
Speaker 3: party pledging fidelity to a set of principles and policies
Speaker 3: that solve problems versus a person And I don't think
Speaker 3: a personality type politics is durable. So I do think
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, our party, like we
Speaker 3: have in the past, will have a big discussion about
Speaker 3: what we stand for, what are our ideas, what are
Speaker 3: our principles, and who the best people capable of carrying.
Speaker 4: Those ideas forward.
Speaker 3: That's not the conversation we're having right now, but he's
Speaker 3: gonna be. If Trump wins, he's a one term president.
Speaker 3: He cannot have a second term because he already had one.
Speaker 3: So I just don't think it's durable, and I think
Speaker 3: we're going to have to have, you know, a real,
Speaker 3: real calling as to what we stand for.
Speaker 2: And if he doesn't win, is that when you have
Speaker 2: that Congress, that happens sooner rather than later.
Speaker 1: And who do you think, I mean, where do you
Speaker 1: see that's a.
Speaker 4: Goodque we have a great bench of talent.
Speaker 3: We have a lot of really good effective governors. We've
Speaker 3: got a bunch of new people that have come to Congress.
Speaker 3: So I'm not worried about our death of our talent pool.
Speaker 3: It's just the shadow that Trump casts over our party
Speaker 3: is dominant. And when that shadow goes, whether it's in
Speaker 3: one or four years, then you're going to have a
Speaker 3: more lively discussion about what is the conservative movement in America?
Speaker 4: What does the Republican Party stand for?
Speaker 2: So crypto, you're also a believer, kind of a proponent
Speaker 2: of crypto.
Speaker 1: Where do you see it?
Speaker 3: I think blockchain has a lot of use cases central banks. Yeah, so, well,
Speaker 3: what I proposed the other day is that we should
Speaker 3: advance stable coin legislation because stable coins actually creates a
Speaker 3: lot of new demand for US debt. So we talked
Speaker 3: to Submitted earlier about potential treasury auction failures. What it
Speaker 3: would be nice if we created more demand for our
Speaker 3: debt and if we had a law which by parison,
Speaker 3: this is by partisan support for in Congress, to advance
Speaker 3: stable coins. I think that helps put the dollar in
Speaker 3: the digital world. It helps give people who have bad
Speaker 3: currencies in some countries digital dollars, and it creates new
Speaker 3: demand for our debt. So I think there are a
Speaker 3: lot of good, interesting, exciting use cases for blockchain for
Speaker 3: Web three stable coins is one of them, and I
Speaker 3: think it actually helps solve some of our physical.
Speaker 4: Problems as well.
Speaker 1: Does that happen under Trump? Provide?
Speaker 3: I think it happens out there either because it has
Speaker 3: by partisan support.
Speaker 4: It's really a matter of if not when