WEBVTT - The Data Disaster in the U.S.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one and

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<v Speaker 1>forty since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main

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<v Speaker 1>story the virus is surging in the US, but we

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<v Speaker 1>still don't have good accessible data about the outbreak. That's

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<v Speaker 1>left the public in the dark about how bad things

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<v Speaker 1>really are. But first, here's what happened in virus news today.

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<v Speaker 1>The United States is about to reach one fifty thousand

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus deaths, and things continue to get worse in COVID hotspots.

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<v Speaker 1>Florida posted a wreck gird number of virus deaths for

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<v Speaker 1>a second straight day, Arizona's infection rate jumped, and in Texas,

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<v Speaker 1>Hurricane Hannah came ashore Saturday and knocked out power to

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<v Speaker 1>more than three hundred thousand homes and businesses. New coronavirus

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<v Speaker 1>guidelines for line crews, along with flooding are complicating efforts

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<v Speaker 1>to turn the lights back on. Some in the region,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe without power for a week. Russia plans to register

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<v Speaker 1>are coronavirus vaccine as soon as August ten. That would

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<v Speaker 1>clear the way for what would be the world's first

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<v Speaker 1>official approval of an inoculation The drug, developed by Moscow's

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<v Speaker 1>Gamalaya Institute and the Russian Direct Investment Fund, may be

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<v Speaker 1>approved for civilian use within three to seven days of

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<v Speaker 1>registration by regulators. The information comes from a person familiar

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<v Speaker 1>with the process who asked not to be identified because

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<v Speaker 1>the information is in public. Finally, in most places, so

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<v Speaker 1>called herd immunity won't be achieved before a vaccine is

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<v Speaker 1>widely available. But in some of India's largest slumps, around

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<v Speaker 1>six and ten people have antibodies for the novel coronavirus,

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<v Speaker 1>indicating they had the virus and recovered. That means the

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<v Speaker 1>country's poorest areas have one of the highest population immunity

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<v Speaker 1>levels worldwide. And now for today's main story, more than

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<v Speaker 1>a month into a resurgence of the novel coronavirus that

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<v Speaker 1>has besieged Sun Belt states, flooded hospitals, and strained public

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<v Speaker 1>health infrastructure, the US still lacks a complete picture of

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<v Speaker 1>the reality on the ground. That's because the US doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>have any official real time system to track the virus

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<v Speaker 1>is spread. At times, even the federal government has had

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<v Speaker 1>to rely on third party databases. I talked to reporter

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<v Speaker 1>and a court who explained the danger of a COVID

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<v Speaker 1>data black hole. What are some of the problems we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing with the US specifically with regard to tracking virus data.

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<v Speaker 1>The reality is that the United States doesn't have a

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<v Speaker 1>good national, real time public picture of COVID nineteen in

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<v Speaker 1>the country even today. It's sort of staggering when you

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<v Speaker 1>say it out loud, but for the people who are

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<v Speaker 1>monitoring this crisis every day, this is just a reality

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<v Speaker 1>of the situation. There isn't a accessible real time system

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<v Speaker 1>to track the virus is spread in this voy. A

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<v Speaker 1>lot of other tools have cropped up from third parties

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<v Speaker 1>and things like that. You know, JOHNS Hopkins has become

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<v Speaker 1>a big source of a lot of coronavirus data. But

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<v Speaker 1>the real issue, and you know, there's been a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of attribution of failures during this crisis to the Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've certainly played a role in this. But I

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<v Speaker 1>see this as confluence of different factors. We've had decades

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<v Speaker 1>of neglect of the technological public health infrastructure in this country,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's this history of federalism, of states taking their

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<v Speaker 1>own approaches to different things, including public health data, and

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<v Speaker 1>the result is this sort of crisis that's been exacerbated

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<v Speaker 1>in many ways by the strategy taken by the Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 1>which has been each state is going to do their

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<v Speaker 1>own thing, and data is such an essential component of

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<v Speaker 1>whether you can reopen, whether it's advisable to reopen. The

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<v Speaker 1>government admits that they have big gaps in data reporting.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of experts have turned in the void of

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<v Speaker 1>really reliable federal system to the different state dashboards. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think many of us have become familiar with this.

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<v Speaker 1>You can log on I'm in New York. You can

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<v Speaker 1>log on and see what New York's numbers are that day,

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<v Speaker 1>how things are changing. But each state also reports data

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<v Speaker 1>very differently, and so you can't necessarily cobble together all

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<v Speaker 1>of these fifty different state dashboards, for instance, and get

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<v Speaker 1>a national picture that is really comprehensive, because everyone talks

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<v Speaker 1>about the numbers a little differently, they measure it a

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<v Speaker 1>little differently, and there's just so much variation in this data.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, what are some of these variations or differences

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<v Speaker 1>in reporting that make it so difficult to get a

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<v Speaker 1>comprehensive national picture, especially when we're looking at how the

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<v Speaker 1>states are reporting things differently. What's interesting is this nonprofit

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<v Speaker 1>called Resolved to Save Lives actually took a deep dive

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<v Speaker 1>into the US and they looked at all the different

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<v Speaker 1>state dashboards and they looked at they basically came up

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<v Speaker 1>with this list of fifteen essential data points and how

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<v Speaker 1>ideally you would want to be tracking these measures like

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<v Speaker 1>new cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. And after they went through

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<v Speaker 1>the ways each state did this, they found what they

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<v Speaker 1>described as an information catastrophe. They found that even these

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<v Speaker 1>metrics people are often turning to, like new cases, hospitalizations,

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<v Speaker 1>and deaths, weren't reported in a standard manner. An example

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<v Speaker 1>of this is, for instance, in Florida, until recently, they

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<v Speaker 1>weren't reporting new hospitalizations each day. They were reporting cumulative

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalizations each day. And that may not seem so difficult.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you can look at the numbers from before,

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<v Speaker 1>and you can do the math. But the result is

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<v Speaker 1>that you can't easily grab fifty sets of state data

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<v Speaker 1>and combine them and get a really good picture of

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on. And also, you know, it takes time

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<v Speaker 1>to dive into these numbers and understand what their implications are.

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<v Speaker 1>And so if each state is reporting numbers slightly differently,

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<v Speaker 1>that makes it harder to understand what's happening in that state,

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<v Speaker 1>just off the top. And the big issue here is

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<v Speaker 1>the public knowledge. Right, public health officials in these states

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<v Speaker 1>have access to data. The problem is, we've seen so

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<v Speaker 1>many errors be made that it's important to have this

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<v Speaker 1>public accountability so the public can understand, for instance, how

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<v Speaker 1>the state is managing the local conditions, but also understand

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<v Speaker 1>is it safe for me right now to be going

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<v Speaker 1>out in my community. And these are important things that

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<v Speaker 1>have major implications for how people lead their lives, what

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<v Speaker 1>level of risk they expose themselves to, and it matters.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to turn now, maybe to the federal level.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems that hospitals have been told not to send

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<v Speaker 1>virus data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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<v Speaker 1>the CDC, but instead to the U. S. Department of

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<v Speaker 1>Health and Human Service. Is now, I was hoping you

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<v Speaker 1>might explain why would there be this change in the

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<v Speaker 1>middle of the pandemic of where this data was sent. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so in some ways, the reason this change was made

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<v Speaker 1>really has to do with these data issues. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when they made this change a couple of weeks ago,

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<v Speaker 1>the agency said the idea was to streamline the system

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<v Speaker 1>and better present what they what data they had, and

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<v Speaker 1>what data they didn't have. UH. And this is data

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<v Speaker 1>that has really important implications. That helps you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>agencies decide where to send things like medical supplies. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>It helps inform the government's response. But the concern was

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<v Speaker 1>the CDC is the public premier public health agency in

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<v Speaker 1>this country. Their job is to maintain public databases like this.

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<v Speaker 1>They have worked with data like this for years. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>this is what they do. And the concern is are

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<v Speaker 1>you taking the data away from the agency that knows

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<v Speaker 1>how to deal with the data and is there some

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<v Speaker 1>politics involved here? The CDC is viewed as being having

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<v Speaker 1>been largely cut out of the us is response to

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen, And the question is is this data is

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<v Speaker 1>still going to be available to the public. Are we

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<v Speaker 1>going to get a better system here or is the

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<v Speaker 1>system going to become even less transparent than it was before.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh And I think it's important to know. The HHS

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<v Speaker 1>perspective on this is this is a way of being

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<v Speaker 1>more transparent. We're making even more data available UH. And

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<v Speaker 1>there are gaps in our data reporting, but we are

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<v Speaker 1>sharing what the gaps are through this new data system.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's let's look at this in a broader international context.

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<v Speaker 1>How does the US is UM approach to tracking virus

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<v Speaker 1>data compare to what some other countries are doing worldwide.

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<v Speaker 1>What's really striking about the patchwork system we have here

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States is that other countries have made

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<v Speaker 1>their data more accessible in one place. So right now

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<v Speaker 1>I could log on to South Korea's c d C

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<v Speaker 1>and see, you know, information about their testing efforts, information

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<v Speaker 1>on a daily basis about what's happening in that country.

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<v Speaker 1>Australia is also a very large country, like the US,

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<v Speaker 1>has a similar system set up as well, and to

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<v Speaker 1>be sure, in many parts of the world there are

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<v Speaker 1>issues with how they've handled the COVID response, But in

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<v Speaker 1>some ways what's happened in the US is very surprising

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<v Speaker 1>from an international perspective. You know that we're a country

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<v Speaker 1>that's gotten involved in public health all around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>We have the pharmaceutical companies are that are developing all

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<v Speaker 1>these COVID vaccines, many are based here in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>So in some ways, the US is thought to have

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<v Speaker 1>been a world leader in health crisis specifically, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>not just data where our reputation is suffering, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>certainly a part of it. That was Emma Cord And

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<v Speaker 1>that's it for our show today. For coverage of the

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<v Speaker 1>outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit

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<v Speaker 1>bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like the show,

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<v Speaker 1>please leave us a review and a rating on Apple

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<v Speaker 1>Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more

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<v Speaker 1>listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition is

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<v Speaker 1>produced by Toph Foreheads, Jordan Gaspore, Magnus Hendrickson and me

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<v Speaker 1>Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Emma Court.

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<v Speaker 1>Original music by Leo Sigrian. Our editors are Rick Shawn

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<v Speaker 1>and Francesca Levi. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening, l