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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prow

2
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Speaker 1: read enough? There were running again? So smooth, so sweet,

3
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Speaker 1: sidid sixteen, Just glorious execution.

4
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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

5
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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that? Shop

6
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Speaker 2: with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

7
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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 1: It's left too, the wide eyed drilled bibus. How old

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Speaker 1: earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, and welcome back to Wonder Goal of the

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Speaker 2: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network, presented to you

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Speaker 2: by Bett three six five. I'm Michael E. Buff Joining

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Speaker 2: me is PJ. Huntingham, and we are going to break

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Speaker 2: down the quarterfinals for Copa America. We already recorded our

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Speaker 2: Euro twenty twenty four quarterfinal as well with our friend

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Speaker 2: Sam Ingram, so be sure to check that one out

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Speaker 2: if you haven't already. But this one, it's Copa America,

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Speaker 2: it's a quarterfinals and it's Argentina and Ecuador to get

21
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Speaker 2: things started off. On Thursday, July the fourth. Argentina is

22
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Speaker 2: the tournament favorite. Still not surprising that nothing's changed here.

23
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Speaker 2: They've given us no reason to jump off that they

24
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Speaker 2: are minus two to ten on the three way line

25
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Speaker 2: to beat Ecuador. Ecuador coming back at seven to one

26
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Speaker 2: on the three way line to draw here is plus

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Speaker 2: three ten.

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Speaker 1: Bjay.

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Speaker 2: As you rightly pointed out, something to remind listeners is

30
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Speaker 2: that these matches there is no extra tie. It goes

31
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Speaker 2: right to a shootout and the two advanced line. I

32
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Speaker 2: should also notice Argentina minus five hundred and Ecuador at

33
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Speaker 2: plus three fifty. This one looks pretty simple to me.

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Speaker 2: I think that just the way Argentina's going the mission

35
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Speaker 2: they're on the way that they are able to get ahead,

36
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Speaker 2: shut things down and just keep every match on script,

37
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Speaker 2: on their script. Outside of Saudi Arabia, every match for

38
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Speaker 2: this team just stays on their script. So Michael, yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's true. It looks like it's it's just going to

40
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Speaker 2: be Argentina. I think you can bet them maybe like

41
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Speaker 2: an Argentina under same game parlay here, something along those

42
00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:27,080
Speaker 2: lines is how it looks.

43
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Argentina, you know, same bet. I've you know,

44
00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,239
Speaker 1: made an think once twice or three times or two

45
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,320
Speaker 1: or three times throughout this tournament, but Argentina to win

46
00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,920
Speaker 1: nail is about minus one fifteen and that type of range.

47
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Speaker 1: So these two faced off against each other in World

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Speaker 1: Cup qualifying. It was the first match of these twenty

49
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Speaker 1: twenty three World Cup qualifiers, and Argentina beat Ecuador one nothing.

50
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Speaker 1: Expectant goals was two point three two point seven for Ecuador.

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Speaker 1: What was glaring in that match is that Ecuador was

52
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Speaker 1: trying to sit as deep as possible. Well, they were

53
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Speaker 1: not really trying to press Argentina, they weren't really trying

54
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Speaker 1: to cause problems, and Argentina was able to do just

55
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Speaker 1: kind of whatever they wanted once they got into Ecuador's

56
00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,520
Speaker 1: final third, and they ended up creating all those chances

57
00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,880
Speaker 1: as well. Ecuador for the match, took three shots, all

58
00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,680
Speaker 1: from distance, never really threatened Argentina's goal. They had five

59
00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,760
Speaker 1: counter attacking opportunities and weren't able to get a single

60
00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 1: shot in any of those counter attacking opportunities, which tells me,

61
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Speaker 1: and it's something that's remained true throughout this tournament, is

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Speaker 1: that Argentina is the best transition to defense here at

63
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Speaker 1: Copa America. They were a little bit shaky against Canada,

64
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Speaker 1: but then against Chile and Peru they conceded a total

65
00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,600
Speaker 1: of point two expected goals and very very few shots

66
00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,960
Speaker 1: as well, So you know, getting out of the price

67
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Speaker 1: of minus one fifteen, you know, the to I have

68
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Speaker 1: the total projected very very low for this match, you know,

69
00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:54,880
Speaker 1: one point six' nine And ecuador really hasn't even shown much. Offensively, like,

70
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Speaker 1: yes they were very good Against. Jamaica they were good

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Speaker 1: up until they got a red card Against, venezuela but

72
00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,960
Speaker 1: then in a match that ended up you, know it

73
00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:09,040
Speaker 1: was a specific, situation right because they Knew venezuela was

74
00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,840
Speaker 1: winning and they just needed to draw Against mexico to go.

75
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Speaker 1: Through but early on in that, MATCH i, mean The

76
00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:19,680
Speaker 1: venezuela And jamaica match was essentially even and there was

77
00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:23,400
Speaker 1: a chance That jamaica could have gone. Ahead so but

78
00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,240
Speaker 1: they only created a point four expected goals in that,

79
00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:29,120
Speaker 1: match and they really weren't that threatening. Offensively SO i

80
00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,839
Speaker 1: think Entered valencia might be. Back even if he, Is

81
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Speaker 1: i'm not sure that The secuador attack really has anything

82
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Speaker 1: to Threaten, argentina just like what happened in That World cup.

83
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Speaker 1: Qualifiers SO i Like argentina to win nil minus one Fifteen.

84
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Speaker 1: Yo messi was banged. UP i think he's back in.

85
00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,600
Speaker 1: TRAINING i think he's still going to play in this.

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Speaker 1: Match But argentina should control this thing from start to.

87
00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,160
Speaker 1: Finish ecuador's probably gonna be playing for that zero zero,

88
00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,839
Speaker 1: draw just get this thing to. Penalties but, Again argentina

89
00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,800
Speaker 1: has been so so good through this, tournament So i'm

90
00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,760
Speaker 1: expecting them to control the match again and hopefully they would.

91
00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:08,719
Speaker 2: Know that brings us To, Friday july the. Fifth there's

92
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Speaker 2: one game Each Thursday, friday then to on the, Sixth

93
00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:17,239
Speaker 2: venezuela And. Canada this one Has venezuela as the slight

94
00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,279
Speaker 2: favorite on the three way line plus one fifty Five

95
00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,320
Speaker 2: canada plus two hundred to draw here is plus two

96
00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:26,760
Speaker 2: ten to. Advance Venezuela canada is basically a coin, flip

97
00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,360
Speaker 2: With canada as an even money Underdog venezuela sitting at

98
00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,719
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five at bat three sixty. Five YOU'RE

99
00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,720
Speaker 2: i still like This canada side a. LOT i think

100
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Speaker 2: that they so much of our focus in The states

101
00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,320
Speaker 2: was on The americans and just the disappointment and all,

102
00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,200
Speaker 2: That WHEREAS i think if we didn't have a horse

103
00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:49,760
Speaker 2: in the, race If this was kind of Like euro

104
00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,440
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, four where we're just observing as betters think

105
00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,280
Speaker 2: we me and you would be we did Identify canada

106
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:56,919
Speaker 2: before the tournament as this is a you, know this

107
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Speaker 2: is a dark horse that can absolutely outrun its. ODDS

108
00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,919
Speaker 2: i think we'd be, like we're we're. In like this

109
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Speaker 2: team is still. Going they've done they haven't scored, enough,

110
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Speaker 2: sure but like they did exactly what they needed to

111
00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:11,080
Speaker 2: do to get through the group that they were. In

112
00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,200
Speaker 2: they played, IT i think almost. Perfectly, yeah you'd like

113
00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:16,720
Speaker 2: to see them Beat chile in that last match or

114
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Speaker 2: score goal or, whatever BUT i think just considering the,

115
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Speaker 2: circumstances they're flying under the radar still a little bit.

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00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,960
Speaker 2: Here they've got a manager who won't be afraid to

117
00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:29,320
Speaker 2: go for it and kind of throw throw These South

118
00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:34,840
Speaker 2: american countries for a. Loop they are the Only North american,

119
00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,520
Speaker 2: country the ONLY concacaff team in, WELL i guess, SORRY

120
00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:39,400
Speaker 2: i shouldn't say that they are the Only North american

121
00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,200
Speaker 2: country in the. Tournament panamas also in CONCA caff and

122
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Speaker 2: they're they're. In but this this kind of the TEAM

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Speaker 2: i still think has some teeth to. IT i like

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00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,599
Speaker 2: to advance at plus one, HUNDRED i think you could

125
00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,359
Speaker 2: start a little bit of a rollover if you didn't

126
00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:56,680
Speaker 2: bet the the outright. Odds they're still big, obviously because

127
00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,080
Speaker 2: they're gonna have to go Through argentina in the next

128
00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:03,839
Speaker 2: round in all, likelihood and then probably one of you,

129
00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,040
Speaker 2: know or will almost certainly have to go through one Of,

130
00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:10,960
Speaker 2: Colombia uruguay Or, brazil and there'll be a big underdog

131
00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,760
Speaker 2: of that match as. Well they're forty to one outright odds,

132
00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,680
Speaker 2: obviously still. Playable do you think that they can Give

133
00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,920
Speaker 2: argentina a rabble if they get, through considering it'd be

134
00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:24,760
Speaker 2: their second time, Playing i'm, sure but, yeah, whatever how

135
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:26,280
Speaker 2: are you want to Bet canada? HERE i think you

136
00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,160
Speaker 2: can go for. It they've just been really. Impressive, yeah so.

137
00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:32,000
Speaker 1: If you Lights canada before the, tournament you should be

138
00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,360
Speaker 1: incredibly happy with this, draw. RIGHT i, Know venezuela won

139
00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:39,080
Speaker 1: their group and they won all three, matches but if

140
00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,240
Speaker 1: you dig individually into those, matches like, yes of course

141
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,160
Speaker 1: they down In. Jamaica everybody did in this, tournament and

142
00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:50,120
Speaker 1: everybody has for quite some time Against, ecuador they were

143
00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,880
Speaker 1: getting out. Played before the red, Card ecuador created a

144
00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:55,200
Speaker 1: couple of huge chances that they got saved on and

145
00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,040
Speaker 1: they obviously you, know ended up scoring when they were

146
00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,360
Speaker 1: down in ten men as. Well then they went and Played,

147
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,280
Speaker 1: mexico they beat them one. Nothing mexico created two point

148
00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,400
Speaker 1: eight expectacles in that match And venezuela barely even was

149
00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,360
Speaker 1: able to create. One and you've seen what This venezuela

150
00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,400
Speaker 1: team is. Like they're a very you, know sit in

151
00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,880
Speaker 1: the mid high defensive block and then look to play

152
00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,800
Speaker 1: in transition if they try to get into a transition

153
00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:19,760
Speaker 1: battle With. Canada and this is the kind of the

154
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,520
Speaker 1: bigger point Is canada is a way more talented team

155
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,400
Speaker 1: Than venezuela. Is Right Like, venezuela if you look at

156
00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,200
Speaker 1: transfer market dot, COM i think their total squad value

157
00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:33,960
Speaker 1: is around around forty. Million canada is up at close

158
00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,280
Speaker 1: to two hundred. Million Right, like they are a way

159
00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,240
Speaker 1: way more talented. Team they have pieces that can give

160
00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,840
Speaker 1: them a lot of problems in transition and especially where

161
00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:45,760
Speaker 1: you can Hit venezuela is out. Wide jamaica was doing

162
00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:47,720
Speaker 1: it a couple you, know over and over again and

163
00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,280
Speaker 1: they just couldn't create chances off of. It but the

164
00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,960
Speaker 1: likes Of Thai Jan buchanan And Alfonso, davies and Having

165
00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:58,800
Speaker 1: Jonathan david as a really good striker and also having

166
00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,920
Speaker 1: a really really good central midfield pairing that can stop the.

167
00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:06,160
Speaker 1: Ball it's a really well set Up canadian. Side And

168
00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:09,960
Speaker 1: marsh has proven himself to not get too aggressive given the,

169
00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:13,920
Speaker 1: circumstances right Because, canada you, know they have benefited in

170
00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,680
Speaker 1: their matches Against peru And, chile where Against peru they you,

171
00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,280
Speaker 1: Know peru got a red card in about this little

172
00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,360
Speaker 1: after the sixtieth. Minute chile got a red card in

173
00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:24,839
Speaker 1: the fifteenth, minute so they were playing up a man

174
00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,800
Speaker 1: for a majority of those and they played well up a,

175
00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,600
Speaker 1: man and given the circumstances they had where they only

176
00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,000
Speaker 1: needed to, Draw marsh had them playing a little bit

177
00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,199
Speaker 1: more aggressive or excuse, me a little bit more. Conservatively

178
00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,120
Speaker 1: so in a match like this which should be very

179
00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:41,480
Speaker 1: back and, FORTH i am going to take the more

180
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,400
Speaker 1: talent and transition, team AND i really don't think they

181
00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:48,240
Speaker 1: should be, underdogs especially given the fact of how Bad

182
00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:53,000
Speaker 1: venezuela was against a SIMILAR concacaf team In. Mexico so

183
00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,760
Speaker 1: credit To venezuela for winning all three, matches but the

184
00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,240
Speaker 1: one match that they played a similar team To. Canada

185
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,520
Speaker 1: they were not impressive at, all SO i like them

186
00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:05,839
Speaker 1: to advance as well at even, money.

187
00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,480
Speaker 2: Both of us On canada for that. One let's move

188
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,640
Speaker 2: on To. Saturday what we'll, have LIKE i, said two

189
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,360
Speaker 2: matches six Pm eastern. Time first up Is, columbia who

190
00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,640
Speaker 2: topped the group with by getting that draw Against. Brazil

191
00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:24,280
Speaker 2: they're minus six hundred two advanced Plaust, panama who advanced

192
00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,959
Speaker 2: at the expense of The United. States panama's plus four

193
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,800
Speaker 2: hundred to. Advance they are the biggest underdog to advance

194
00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:35,720
Speaker 2: in This in these, quarterfinals the three way line too

195
00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,320
Speaker 2: obviously Has columbia as the. Favorite they are minus three

196
00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:43,240
Speaker 2: hundred to. Win inside Ninety panama is ten to. One

197
00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:47,439
Speaker 2: the draw is plus three seventy. FIVE i think you

198
00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:53,200
Speaker 2: can in a different. Way you can in a different

199
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 2: way from The Argentina ecuador. MATCH i think you can

200
00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,160
Speaker 2: look At columbia to win in a route however you

201
00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,439
Speaker 2: want to do that minus won, half it's. FINE i

202
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,480
Speaker 2: Think columbia team totals you can bet as. Well it's

203
00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:05,920
Speaker 2: just you. DON'T i just don't trust The columbia assunna

204
00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,720
Speaker 2: be The panama defense to be able to put up

205
00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,319
Speaker 2: enough resistance to A columbia team THAT'S i think exceeded expectations.

206
00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,760
Speaker 2: Here they get a great draw, Obviously SO i Like.

207
00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,240
Speaker 2: COLUMBIA i think if you're getting be able to get

208
00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,439
Speaker 2: you can Play. Colombia Maybe columbia in the Over colombia

209
00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,520
Speaker 2: to win by multiple, goals might just one and a,

210
00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:29,480
Speaker 2: half et. Cetera it's it's really really hard to See

211
00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:31,920
Speaker 2: panama putting up enough, resistance especially with the way they,

212
00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 2: play like their physical and they're going to commit a

213
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:37,480
Speaker 2: ton of fouls and you can get away with that

214
00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:39,440
Speaker 2: against some the teams that they had in their, group

215
00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,720
Speaker 2: Like bolivia and THE us, obviously BUT i Think columbia

216
00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,000
Speaker 2: punishes them HERE bj. DON'T i think this is one way. Traffic.

217
00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:49,800
Speaker 1: YEAH i like over two and a half minus one twenty,

218
00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:51,640
Speaker 1: five WHICH i think is lowly over is hitting all

219
00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:55,679
Speaker 1: Three panama matches in this, tournament and you kind of

220
00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,720
Speaker 1: see you know, why, right because once you get into

221
00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,520
Speaker 1: a back and forth transitional, battle which is essentially What

222
00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,560
Speaker 1: panama wants to, do, right even against The United, states

223
00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,079
Speaker 1: you know they were obviously playing up a. Man BUT

224
00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:12,480
Speaker 1: i think the bigger the carbon copy match right is

225
00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,600
Speaker 1: when they Played uruguay in the first match to the group,

226
00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,120
Speaker 1: stage who plays a very similar style to that Of.

227
00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,640
Speaker 1: Colombia uruguay scored. Early panama had to be more on

228
00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:23,559
Speaker 1: the front. Foot they had to get into a transitional

229
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,400
Speaker 1: battle With uruguay and you just saw the effect of

230
00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:29,280
Speaker 1: a ton of chances at both. Ends colombia is going

231
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:30,880
Speaker 1: to do the exact same. Thing they are going to

232
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:32,920
Speaker 1: come At. Panama panama is probably going to see, deep

233
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,839
Speaker 1: sit deep early, on try to absorb that pressure and plan.

234
00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,400
Speaker 1: Transition But colombia has proven themselves to be vulnerable in

235
00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,040
Speaker 1: those type of transition. Attacks they were really good Against,

236
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,079
Speaker 1: brazil who was trying to build out of the. Back

237
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,160
Speaker 1: they were able to deploy their high press and cause

238
00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:51,360
Speaker 1: them a lot of, problems but especially Against, paraguay Like

239
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:55,400
Speaker 1: paraguay caused some problems For colombia and transition. There the

240
00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,040
Speaker 1: bigger point, though is that the totals with These panama

241
00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,719
Speaker 1: MATCHES i think have been too low for quite some.

242
00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,920
Speaker 1: Time Since september of twenty twenty, One panela matches are

243
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,959
Speaker 1: averaging three point seven expected goals for ninety minutes THROUGHOUT

244
00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:12,120
Speaker 1: concacaff throughout The copeamerica here throughout The nation's, league every

245
00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:15,520
Speaker 1: single match for them has pretty much divolved into, chaos

246
00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:19,040
Speaker 1: and it's usually game state. Dependent SO i like over

247
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:20,720
Speaker 1: two and a half minus one twenty five and early

248
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:22,640
Speaker 1: goal is going to throw this into. Chaos you, Know,

249
00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,160
Speaker 1: colombia as you saw Against, brazil is not the type

250
00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,520
Speaker 1: of team even when it's an even game state or

251
00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:31,040
Speaker 1: in a situation where they just have to draw to get,

252
00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,959
Speaker 1: through they're still not just going to sit back and

253
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:35,800
Speaker 1: let you do whatever you. Want they're still going to

254
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,000
Speaker 1: come at. You they're still going to try to force high,

255
00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,400
Speaker 1: turnovers and they're still going to try to beat you in.

256
00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,520
Speaker 1: Transition SO i think this is going to be very

257
00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:44,679
Speaker 1: up and down type. MATCH i projected about three point

258
00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,679
Speaker 1: three goals for, it SO i like over two and a.

259
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,320
Speaker 1: Half and if you're somebody like me who has An

260
00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,040
Speaker 1: URGUA i ticket right, NOW i think a bet On

261
00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:53,880
Speaker 1: columbia at six to one to win this tournament is

262
00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,679
Speaker 1: worth a bet because obviously we like them to get

263
00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,559
Speaker 1: through in this, round. RIGHT i, mean they Outplayed brazil

264
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:03,720
Speaker 1: in that final, match a match they did not even

265
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:05,719
Speaker 1: really need to, win and as we'll get to in

266
00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,319
Speaker 1: This Uruguay brazil. Match If brazil gets ousted here in the,

267
00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:10,840
Speaker 1: quarterfinals THEN i think you'll get a five or six

268
00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,560
Speaker 1: to one ticket to go to the final Against, argentina

269
00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,800
Speaker 1: who will probably be about minus two. Hundred would be

270
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:19,680
Speaker 1: my guest to lift the trophy if they face Either

271
00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,320
Speaker 1: columbia Or. Uruguay so you can get a decent hedge

272
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,640
Speaker 1: opportunity in the final with one of those two. Teams

273
00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 1: BUT i think betting Against brazil to get to that,

274
00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,320
Speaker 1: FINAL i think is a root. Here if you already

275
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,480
Speaker 1: have That uruguay, TICKET i think A colombia six OR

276
00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:33,760
Speaker 1: i think there's a six and a half to one

277
00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:35,680
Speaker 1: out THERE i think would be worth of that as.

278
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:39,000
Speaker 2: Well, okay let's close it out With uruguay And. Brazil

279
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,840
Speaker 2: and we were. Wrong we both Like brazil to win Against.

280
00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:47,000
Speaker 2: Columbia they did. Not they now come into the match

281
00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:51,120
Speaker 2: of the quarter finals by some distance Against, uruguay who

282
00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,040
Speaker 2: you feel bad a little bad for. Them they win

283
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 2: the group and Get, brazil it's essentially a pick them.

284
00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,400
Speaker 2: Here the three way line Has uruguay is a slight

285
00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,400
Speaker 2: underdog one seventy Five brazil plus one fifty the drop

286
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,320
Speaker 2: plus two thirty and then to Advanced brazil might have

287
00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:09,400
Speaker 2: won twenty, five And Marcelo biel, says Uh uruguay sitting

288
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,320
Speaker 2: at even, MONEY i want to Bet. BRAZIL i think

289
00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,320
Speaker 2: it's still an opportunity to buy. LOW I i know

290
00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,200
Speaker 2: you don't want to bet against your, your yougua.

291
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,960
Speaker 1: Future so perhaps they were they were bad Against. Columbia, yeah,

292
00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:21,680
Speaker 1: yeah it was.

293
00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:27,120
Speaker 2: Bad they, yeah, yeah it's, weird BUT i there's Still.

294
00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 1: Brazil BUT i do, Agree yeah it. Is they are Still.

295
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,000
Speaker 1: Brazil they are still the more talented. Team they are

296
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,080
Speaker 1: still a very good defensive. Team LIKE i mentioned in

297
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,400
Speaker 1: the last, podcast you, Know colombia did create over one

298
00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,240
Speaker 1: expectacle against. Them that was just the third time since

299
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:45,040
Speaker 1: The september of twenty twenty one of that's. Happened but

300
00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:50,520
Speaker 1: the problem was is That brazil really really struggled playing

301
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,960
Speaker 1: Through columbia's. Pressure in the, End columbia had you, know

302
00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,640
Speaker 1: passes per defensive action below, ten which is not something

303
00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,840
Speaker 1: you see against a team Like. Brazil brazil couldn't get

304
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,040
Speaker 1: their midfielders in the right positions to play through that.

305
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,200
Speaker 1: Metal it was just kind of funneling the ball out.

306
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,640
Speaker 1: Wide Venetius junior And rodrigo And raphenia and hope for

307
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,040
Speaker 1: some individual. Quality they hit a free kick which was.

308
00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 1: Great venetius is going to be suspended for this, match

309
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:21,120
Speaker 1: which Hurts. Brazil BUT i think people are overvaluing it Because,

310
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,040
Speaker 1: Michael it's not Like Jeffrey schlupp is coming in to

311
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 1: play left wing. Right We Haveel Martinelli orsavio, Right they're

312
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 1: still very very good left. Wingers it's not this enormous

313
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 1: drop off THAT i think people are overweighting it as.

314
00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 1: Right it's Not Pedro nato being out for, wolves you.

315
00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 2: Know SO.

316
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 1: I agree that it is a chance to buy ale On.

317
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 1: Brazil Though brazil has had significantly better underlying metrics Than

318
00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,720
Speaker 1: erguay for a long time, now and they're a way

319
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 1: more talented. Team are they? Better are they set up better? Tactically?

320
00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,640
Speaker 1: No and that's essentially what you Could that's the argument

321
00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:02,520
Speaker 1: and the case For. Eruguay but sim To england Versus,

322
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,520
Speaker 1: SWITZERLAND i think that the pendulum may have swung a

323
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:11,639
Speaker 1: little bit too far towards the underdog after what we

324
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:15,080
Speaker 1: saw the poor performance From. BRAZIL i will not be Betting.

325
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:18,159
Speaker 1: BRAZIL i do Have brazil projected even, money WHICH i

326
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:22,760
Speaker 1: thought was pretty fair considering a large sample. Size orguay

327
00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,479
Speaker 1: did Beat brazil in qualifying.

328
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 2: Before this.

329
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,080
Speaker 1: Tournament, again LIKE i mentioned many, times that was a

330
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,040
Speaker 1: very Different brazil team under a different system that was

331
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 1: set up to fail against a team Like. Uruguay So i'm.

332
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,640
Speaker 1: Passing i'm just gonna sit back and enjoy and watch.

333
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 1: THIS i Hope urguay. WINS i hope he also wins

334
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 1: and gets through the next. Round but if you're a

335
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,400
Speaker 1: neutral and you're somebody who just wants to bet on this, match,

336
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,720
Speaker 1: UNFORTUNATELY i think it's a bilot opportunity In. Brazil like you,

337
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 1: SAID i, Agree, okay.

338
00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:01,080
Speaker 2: Best Bets now For Copa america, quarterfinals you can go.

339
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 1: First, Yeah argentina to win nail minus one to fifteen Against.

340
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 1: Ecuador these two teams faced off against each other In

341
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:11,080
Speaker 1: World cup qualifying in late twenty twenty. Three argentina won

342
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 1: that match one. Nothing they Beat ecuador and expected goals

343
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,280
Speaker 1: two point three to point. Seven but what was interesting

344
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,600
Speaker 1: in that match is that they Limited ecuador to just

345
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 1: three total, shots And ecuador had five counter attacking opportunities

346
00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 1: and didn't get a single shot off those counter attacking

347
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 1: opportunities Because argentina is the best transition defense in this.

348
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:31,000
Speaker 1: Tournament they've proven that against Both peru Against. Chile both

349
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 1: of those teams have created a combined point two expected

350
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,119
Speaker 1: goals against. Them argentina is the best team in the

351
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,639
Speaker 1: world at controlling, matches keeping it on what they want to.

352
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 1: Do they're going to be able to play Through ecuador's low,

353
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 1: block which has been okay throughout this. Tournament But ecuador's

354
00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,439
Speaker 1: offense really has proven not to be very, effective especially

355
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:51,120
Speaker 1: in their last match Against. Mexico they only created point

356
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,600
Speaker 1: four expected. Goals SO i really worry about How ecuador's

357
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 1: actually going to create the chances in this, match AND

358
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 1: i think they're just going to try to see this

359
00:18:57,600 --> 00:18:59,879
Speaker 1: out until the. Final but given how that match went

360
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:03,119
Speaker 1: against win Against argentina In World cup, Qualifying i'm not

361
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,240
Speaker 1: sure they're going to be able to Limit argentina to

362
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,400
Speaker 1: under one or even under one and a half expected.

363
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 1: Goals SO i Like argentina to win a little whole

364
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:10,399
Speaker 1: price of minus one.

365
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:14,400
Speaker 2: FIFTEEN i Like canada to advance at even money Against.

366
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,360
Speaker 2: Venezuela venezuela was really impressive in the group, stage three

367
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,360
Speaker 2: wins from three matches a plus five goal difference six

368
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 2: goals for one goal, against but they did play in

369
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:28,640
Speaker 2: the softest group in this, tournament Alongside, Ecuador mexico And. Jamaica,

370
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 2: Meanwhile canada won one in one in the group stage

371
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: and only one goal scored in those three, matches but

372
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 2: it was the goal that got them. Through they get

373
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 2: to win Over peru one, nil then are able to

374
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:40,919
Speaker 2: Hold chile to a nil nil draws exactly what they

375
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 2: need to, do so they get through the group with

376
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 2: a negative one goal, difference and if we're being, honest

377
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 2: like their match Against argentina was really, impressive even in

378
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 2: a two nil, defeat AND i think that we're now

379
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 2: looking at them getting underrated here against the team In

380
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 2: venezuela that none of us really fancied to be in

381
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:03,400
Speaker 2: the same class as even The ecuadors And Mexico's chiles

382
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 2: of the. World And canada has already proven that they

383
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 2: can rub shoulders with. Them trust the manager in the,

384
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,880
Speaker 2: SITUATION i Think canada should be the favorite to get through,

385
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 2: here but they're. NOT i Like canada. HERE i think

386
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 2: that they have a real opportunity to cast some chaos

387
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,880
Speaker 2: still in this. Tournament so we're getting back The canadians

388
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 2: Over july fourth, weekend of, course So canada for, Me

389
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 2: argentina FOR. Bja we'll see if those two teams meet

390
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 2: in the semi. Finals thank you for listening To Wonder.

391
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 2: Goal thank you to our SPONSORS bet three six. Five

392
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 2: thank you to our Producer NOAH. I thank you to

393
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 2: all that have listened along to Our euro twenty twenty four.

394
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 2: Episodes we will see you with both A euro twenty

395
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 2: twenty four semi final preview and A Copa america semi

396
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 2: final preview on the other side of the. Weekend best

397
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 2: of luck with all your. Bets Action network reminds you

398
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:58,719
Speaker 2: please gamble.

399
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,280
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400
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401
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