1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,080 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to our guest. As mentioned Peter 2 00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: McGuire from x M Australia, the CEO. So we're looking 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: for a tougher language from the Fed this week. It 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: seems like the Fed is intent on saying we're not 5 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: there yet, the job is not done yet. We heard 6 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: that from Thomas Barkin on Friday. He was saying inflation 7 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: is number one, even if it means recession. So is 8 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:24,639 Speaker 1: that the right way of looking at it. We've got 9 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: a journey here. We're gonna have to go through some 10 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: tough times before we beat inflation. Yes, yes, I agree 11 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: with you, Brian. I mean, let's well described, and I 12 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: think the platform that we move forward with it's going 13 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: to be a tough one. And we've had a massive 14 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: move to the upside as far as a confidence boost 15 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: with equities over the last two months and whether that's 16 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: going to maintain and we're taking on board what's what 17 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: the retoric coming out of out of this symposium over 18 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: the next few days. So we've got it's going to 19 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: be an interesting week to look at what impact it 20 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: has two dollar and certainly too equities. When it comes 21 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: to Jackson Hole, are you expecting to hear anything concrete 22 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: in terms of clear guidance beyond the usual reliance on 23 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: the words data dependent. Well, I think so, Paul, I 24 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 1: look on board and you've got to be conscious of 25 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: every word that's that's mentioned and really break down the 26 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: phrases and take on board what the overall themes are. 27 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: And you know we're going to see an increase as 28 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 1: far as ramping up the roll off with with securities. 29 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 1: You're looking also what the storyline is going to be 30 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: as far as the inflation and whether the herd on 31 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: main street is. You know, we're only just starting to 32 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: see further um. You know, Uptick, you're looking as on 33 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: board what's happening with the impact as far as Eurozone, 34 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: China and the overall glow of all themes. So yes, 35 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a fascinating um commentary 36 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: and we're all sitting here looking at to see what 37 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: the opportunities are going to be from a trading mindset. Yeah, 38 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: we've had FED speaker after a FED speaker, and I 39 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 1: guess we've heard a lot of the SeeMe in Australia 40 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: as well that you know, you you have to get 41 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 1: the job done and if if you believe that the 42 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: Fed will will air on the Hawkey side, then it 43 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,399 Speaker 1: pays to be cautious. So how are you navigating it? Well, 44 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 1: I think that really comes down Brian to you know 45 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: king dollar that's being demonstrated over the last week or two. 46 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 1: You've seen a big sell off across euro. You're looking 47 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: now at parody. Yen's being hammered at one thirty seven, 48 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: and that continues to be softness. We understand the position 49 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 1: as far as b O J. You're looking at a 50 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,119 Speaker 1: one eighteen handle for the cable, So the pounds being 51 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: under big pressure to the downside with inflation over ten percent. 52 00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 1: So all of those I think inputs coming into that 53 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 1: to making this wonderful cake call trading. Everyone's long dollar 54 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: and we're just appreciating what the storyline is going to 55 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 1: be over the next week or two. So that could 56 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: we could see a one oh nine handle where currently 57 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: setting up one oh eight for the un for US 58 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: dollar index, and that's really the focus from many traders 59 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: in the currency mindset. Yeah, in terms of currencies equities, 60 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: perhaps every market you can imagine is the inflation narrative 61 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: and what the FIT is going to do about it? 62 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: Fully priced in yet or is are we just going 63 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: to keep going sideways for quite some time? I think 64 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: sideways to some extent, Paul, because we haven't got to 65 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: the end of the game within the inflation story, and 66 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: that really creates the turbulence on main street energy prices, utilities, food, 67 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: the cost of consumption in Australia. So, yes, that's what 68 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: everyone's feeling, and that's across Asia in the world. So 69 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 1: we've just got to see how long it takes to 70 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: raise this in and the general hurt as far as 71 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: you know what the story is going to be with 72 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: wage growth, and you know what's happening across you know, 73 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: domestic families, how they're managing all of this. And Peter, 74 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 1: one of the things we've been talking about today is 75 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: the many challenges facing China. COVID zero, drought, affecting energy inputs, 76 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 1: the property sectors, got some well known and ongoing at difficulties. 77 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: What's your feeling about the prospects for growth in China 78 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: and do you put money to work there at the 79 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 1: moment or do you just stand back, Well, Paul, I 80 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: think you're just standing back. That seems to be the 81 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: general consensus that many traders are looking at because the 82 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: unknown with the property sector and the overall COVID story 83 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 1: that hasn't been you know, wound down. We've got there's 84 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: just so much uncertainty across the whole basin. And now 85 00:04:55,960 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 1: you're looking at you know, an energy a major your 86 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: energy issue that's facing the nation, and you've got drought conditions, 87 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,799 Speaker 1: you've got record heat waves, so all of these issues. 88 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: I think we're just sitting back observing and seeing how 89 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: you know, this August, September, October period rolled through. So 90 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: one thing I'm curious about because of that uncertainty that 91 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: you highlight their uh, is that policy becomes very important. 92 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: So when I'm looking around the world, I'm trying to 93 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 1: figure out, you know, who seems to have a handle 94 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: on the best policy direction at the moment. Do you 95 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 1: make those kind of determinations, Well, you do. But the issue, Brian, 96 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 1: is that it's just such a moving target week on 97 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: week and the and the data drops are really hitting 98 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: everyone between the eyes just going right. Well, and this 99 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:53,119 Speaker 1: is from a retail perspective, what what's going to happen, 100 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 1: what's the what's the worst news that's coming out this week? 101 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,159 Speaker 1: You know, we're looking at p M I s. You're 102 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: looking at GDP numbers, you're conscious from an inflation standpoint, 103 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: and everyone's looking at you know, the retoric coming likes 104 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 1: of China and of course symposium this week out of 105 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: Jackson Hole. So you know, the average person, the average 106 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: trader is realizing there's a lot to be across and yeah, 107 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 1: it's a time of I think much. I'm not saying confusion, 108 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: but there's a lot of data drops and that's really 109 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: impacting decision making processes. Of course, towards the end of 110 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: the year, she Jumping will be expected to be confirmed 111 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: for an historic third term as China's leader. Does your 112 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: gut tell you that things might start to change after 113 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 1: that's lockdown? Well, it may, world, do you know. That's 114 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: another thing we're keeping an eye on pool so you 115 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: know there again, just the general these are unusual times. 116 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: You know, I haven't lived through a pandemic and that 117 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: the issue that faces many consumers and traders out there 118 00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:01,039 Speaker 1: is are we are we to the inflection point of 119 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 1: growth and are we going to see growth in twenty 120 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: three or is it going to be a really you know, 121 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: a stumble along and that no one's really got a mindset, 122 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: what the what the future is going to take forward? 123 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: So you know, we're looking at central banks, we understand 124 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: the Z situation. Yeah, it's a lot of uncertainty at 125 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: the moment. Okay, So we've talked a lot about the 126 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 1: uncertain environment and how difficult it is to direct policy 127 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: in that kind of environment. But we do have some 128 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: some good stories coming. Um, you know, maybe not all 129 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: the way there yet, but Cisco seemed to indicate that 130 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: they were getting a handle on supply chain disruptions, and 131 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: Applied Materials had kind of a similar message. How how 132 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: do we sort of play that one? Well, I think, brother, 133 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: that's good news, and we understand from supply chains and 134 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: every company has a different footprint as far as their 135 00:07:56,440 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: supply chain issues. So I think you've just got to 136 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: be conscious of that, look at the sector and see 137 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: if other companies that play in that space have got 138 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: similar updraft, and be conscious of, you know, the comments 139 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: coming out of their CEO, what the analysts are saying. 140 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 1: You know, that's not that hard to look at the 141 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 1: big picture and take on board the the overall themes, 142 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: and that's what any trader has got to look at 143 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: from a fundamental perspective. You know, you've just got to 144 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: do a little bit of number crunching and look at 145 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: the look at the opportunities. Peter, very quickly, what's your 146 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: cash allocation like right now? You're keeping some drape out 147 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: of Yeah, absolutely, Paul, because quite there is so much 148 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 1: uncertainty with equities and maybe it's a time just to 149 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: keep that powder on the on the sideline and look 150 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 1: at opportunities over the coming months. Alright, Peter McGuire, CEO 151 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 1: at Exam Australia, thanks so much for joining us on 152 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Today.