WEBVTT - Anne Applebaum Studies Autocracies. So How Can We Avoid One? 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:01.119 Hi. 0:00:01.120 --> 0:00:04.480 I'm Danielle Alarconn, executive producer of The Moment from Ryan 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:07.200 Mulante Studios. We're in the middle of our fundraising campaign. 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:10.520 We've received so many donations with heartfelt messages from our community. 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:13.560 So thank you truly to everyone who supported us today. 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:15.040 I especially want to speak to those of you who 0:00:15.080 --> 0:00:17.680 listen every week but haven't yet felt ready to donate 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.200 to Ryan Bulente Studios. If you feel like what we're 0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:21.959 doing here at the Moment has value that it helps 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:24.160 you understand our politics. If you feel like our show 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:26.720 inspires you or keeps you company, then this is a 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:29.600 great time to give us a hand. Don't overthink it. Plus, 0:00:29.640 --> 0:00:32.080 this week we pulled off something really special. Thanks to 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:34.120 the efforts of a generous group of donors. We're able 0:00:34.159 --> 0:00:37.960 to triple every contribution you make up to twenty thousand dollars. If, 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:41.519 for example, you donate thirty dollars, we'll get ninety. Go 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:45.440 to Ryan Mulante dot org slash donate every contribution, no 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:46.920 matter the amount makes a difference. 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:47.840 Thank you so much. 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:49.360 Now here's the episode. 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:53.440 I'm ord Ramos and I'm Bala Ramos, and this is the. 0:00:53.440 --> 0:01:07.040 Momentment Contactor in Astoria. Just a few weeks after Donald 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.920 Trump was elected, I went to a conference in Columbia. 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:13.880 There were a lot of experts on democracy. 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:18.640 And the important process of participating in the society. But 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:23.240 then everybody went to one expert, this thought leader, on 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:26.720 what she thought about democracy in America? Is there a 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.559 threat to democracy? And what's going to happen with Donald Trump? 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:33.399 So you're talking about an Applebaum and is a Politzer 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:37.080 Prize winning journalist, writer author. You may have read her 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.760 on The Atlantic. Her latest book is Autocracy, Inc. But 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:45.480 more than anything, and is an expert on democracies and authoritarianism. 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:47.680 So I think this is a moment dad where we 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.040 can agree that everyone is asking this one question right 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:53.800 like is the United States headed towards authoritarianism? Are we there? 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:56.880 Are we not? And is someone that can help you 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:02.640 understand the elements, the environment and the signs to help 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:05.480 us measure whether or not we're losing our democracy? 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:07.800 And what I find so interesting is that she can 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:11.480 talk about the dark side of history but also about 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:15.240 hopefulness nowadays in the United States and the rest of 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:17.919 the world. An apple Bomb when we come back. 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:24.800 Well and thank you so much for joining us. And 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:25.720 welcome to the moment. 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:27.480 Thanks thanks for having me. 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:30.359 So before the end of the year. We wanted to 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:33.799 come to you to really take this as an opportunity 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:36.760 to look at the past, to help us reflect on 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:39.239 everything that this country has endured over the last year. 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:41.440 And I think I don't have to tell you. I 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:44.040 think a lot of people feel overwhelmed by the news, 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.440 by the noise. And I think your voice, your commentary, 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:50.040 your writing on the Atlantic, of course, your your latest 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:52.760 book Photography, inc. I think all of that has really 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:56.040 anchored thousands of people, including myself, And I think you've 0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:59.760 allowed for a lot of people to situate the current 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:05.000 American moment within a historical context. And so thank you again. Today, 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:07.119 I want to start by just looking at the last 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:10.240 couple of days. You see an administration that has once 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:14.480 again completely transformed the immigration system, suddenly pausing immigration from 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:18.079 nineteen countries. You see an administration that continues to dismantle 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:21.959 the Department of Education, someone that just pardoned the former 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:26.320 president of Holudas, who of course is convicted drug trafficker. 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:28.760 And all of this is happening as the United States 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:32.520 weighs a potential invasion in Minnesuela, and so it's a lot. 0:03:32.919 --> 0:03:35.400 But my question for you is, when you look at 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:40.160 this administration's behavior, do you see chaos or do you 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:41.480 see an actual plan? 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:44.840 So I think you can answer that by saying that 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:49.120 there's more than one actual plan. There are several people 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:52.720 who have plans and they sometimes contradict and that this 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:54.840 is why it might look like chaos. But I think 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:58.440 what you're actually seeing is just competition between different ideas. 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:01.240 So on the one hand, it's clear that you have 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:06.400 a part of the administration that wants to use immigration, 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.280 not even as a real policy issue, but as a 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:14.200 part of the culture wars. So they they're using a 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.760 crackdown on immigrants, on people who look, to some Americans, 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:21.839 look foreign or look different, as a way of demonstrating 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:25.400 their power and showing their supporters. Look, we're cracking down 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:29.760 on this diversity that you don't like, and we're deporting people. 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:33.520 And some of the deliberate cruelty is part of that too. 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:37.040 You know, they're trying to appeal to something very ugly 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:39.640 that I don't think is in all Americans, but there's 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:42.360 some percentage who support it. 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:42.760 You know. 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:46.919 Simultaneously, you have some people who are part of this 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:51.400 administration because they are interested in money. And many of 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:57.000 the pardons, the people who've been pardoned in the last year, 0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.120 and I'm not going to remember the numbers off the 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:02.200 top of my head, but Trump has pardoned many, many 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:05.240 times more people in one year than I think any 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:08.680 previous president had ever pardoned in four years. And so 0:05:08.760 --> 0:05:13.719 some of that is about responding to donors and other supporters, 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:18.680 maybe people who've invested in Trump's cryptocurrency company. The pardon 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:23.000 system seems to have been set up to reflect different peoples, 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:26.440 not just the president, but people around the president, their interests, 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:29.480 maybe their financial interests or their political interests, and so 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:31.800 you have these kind of, you know, as I said, 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:36.599 seemingly different noisy things happening at the same time. And 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:41.120 actually the story in Venezuela, which maybe we should have 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.520 a step back and have a more nuanced discussion of it, 0:05:44.560 --> 0:05:47.880 also seems to me to be about several things at once. 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:52.080 It's part of the idea that we are I don't 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:54.440 know if we're going to invade, but we're using force 0:05:54.560 --> 0:05:59.080 against Venezuela to stop narco terrorism. Is something that's clearly 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:02.400 part of this demean stick culture war that's useful for 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:06.880 the administration domestically. Maybe they are also oil interests there. 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:10.800 You know, there's there's maybe a small part of the 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:15.440 State Department still cares about helping Venezuelans and helping them 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:20.400 have a better government and maybe letting allowing their democratically 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:23.680 elected leaders to rule the country rather than an illegitimate government. 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.600 But you're not hearing those people. I mean, if that's 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:29.240 what anybody thinks, they aren't saying so right now. So 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:33.200 all of these, all of these policies are the product of. 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:37.480 Different groups. I mean, maybe maybe one group. 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:39.640 Or one philosophy will win out in the end, but 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:41.719 right now we see several in competition. 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:44.919 And the last time I saw you, I think it 0:06:44.960 --> 0:06:48.640 was in Carta, Columbia, and the world seemed very different. 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:51.080 It was the beginning of twenty twenty five and Trump 0:06:51.120 --> 0:06:54.000 had just begun his second term as president. And I 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:57.839 remember and that you were very concerned about the threats 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:00.880 to American democracy post by Trump. I think you've been 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:05.159 asked a hundred times the same question, and it's exactly 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:10.200 the same question. La demogracia americanistem peligro and and obviously 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:13.360 you you gave all your answers, but I wonder if 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:17.440 you have been taken by surprise by the speed and 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:21.000 by the extent of the changes that would seem. 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:24.440 So honestly, I'm not surprised. The language that Trump was 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:28.440 using during the campaign was unlike the language that any 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:31.600 other American presidential candidate had ever used, you know, talking 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:37.320 about immigrants and also other Americans as vermin as poison, 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:39.760 as garbage. 0:07:40.960 --> 0:07:41.160 You know. 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:45.040 This isn't even even in the during the era of 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.880 the civil rights when we had you know, segregationists running 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.200 for office in the United States, you know, George Wallace, 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:54.400 people like that, they weren't using that kind of language. 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:56.040 In fact, they went out of their way to be 0:07:56.160 --> 0:07:58.240 very polite, you know. I mean, I don't know what 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:00.920 they thought, but they spoke about but equal or they 0:08:00.960 --> 0:08:05.000 had other justifications. And this is the first American politician 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:08.480 who's used that kind of language, And to me, it 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:12.360 sounds like the language of the worst dictators of the past. 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:14.760 I mean, and I know because I've written books about them, 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:17.280 and so it has always bothered me. And the second 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:19.920 thing that bothered me about Trump was that I knew 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.840 that the people around him in his second term would 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:25.680 be very different from the people in his first term. 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:26.960 He is. 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:30.360 He's surrounded by people who were attracted to him after 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:33.280 January the sixth. In other words, they saw what happened 0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:35.400 on January the sixth, and they said, we like that, 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:39.040 you know, we like the idea of overthrowing American democracy. 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:42.800 All of them are people who who think fundamentally that 0:08:43.000 --> 0:08:46.040 something about the system needs to be overthrown. So in 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:49.600 that sense, they aren't conservatives in the old definition of 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.160 the word conservative. They aren't interested in preserving what's good 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:56.679 from the past. They aren't interested in building on the 0:08:56.720 --> 0:08:59.199 experience of history and moving forward. These are people who 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:03.360 are radicals, and they were interested in radical change. They 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:09.080 were interested in making very dramatic shifts, shifts that would 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:12.679 be visible, that would be comprehensible to some of their 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:16.040 radical supporters. And I think they're also very interested in 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:20.680 changing things in a way that is irreversible. The destruction 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:23.640 of US AID, for example, they did it in such 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:26.560 a way that it can't be rebuilt, and even if 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:27.559 it's ever found to. 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:29.160 Be illegal, which I think it was. 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:31.600 I mean, there's the US administration didn't have the right 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:34.840 to destroy an institution that was created by Congress, Congress 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:37.920 and our system being the body that decides about funding. 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:39.880 Nevertheless, it's too late. 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:43.240 Because it's gone and all the people and contracts and 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:46.280 organizations that worked with it have been cut. And so 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:49.719 I think the speed is a reflection of that radicalism. 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:51.920 And I think you could hear the radicalism over the 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:52.760 last couple. 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:57.480 Of years, yep Son, even the language, you know, I mean, 0:09:57.520 --> 0:10:01.160 they keep on usume. I remember just a few years ago, nobody, 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:05.160 nobody call on documentary illegal immigrants, illegal aliens. And now 0:10:05.200 --> 0:10:07.480 it's been used over and over again, and it has 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:08.880 been normalized completely. 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.520 It's just the language that is changing so much. 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:14.320 And they're very conscious of this language, you know, they 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:18.120 they use it in a way that's designed to create 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:21.760 maximal polarization, you know, to create the idea that there's 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:23.199 a group of and you know, they don't only just 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:25.760 talk about immigrants being illegal, they talk about them being criminals. 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:27.079 You know, we're arresting criminals. 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:31.439 And so the idea is that you know, you focus 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:36.600 your anger and distrust and dislike of whatever it is 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.080 that you don't like about American life, focus it on 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:43.360 these illegal criminals who are seeking to undermine our country, 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:47.280 you know, or change its nature and focus your anger 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:49.000 on them, and we're going to show you how we'll 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:51.560 arrest them and will do so, you know, in the 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:54.520 most brutal way possible, and we'll film ourselves doing it, 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.199 and then we'll make video. 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:56.520 Clips out of it. 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.480 I mean, that's the that's that's the kind of politics 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:02.920 that we're seeing. And and again it's it's just you know, 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:05.880 for me, I I've I've lived in mostly in Europe 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:08.240 over the last thirty years, and I wrote books about 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:12.880 the Soviet system before that. And these are not new ideas. 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:16.920 These are familiar ideas. And again, it doesn't mean that 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:20.560 America is already a dictatorship or anything like that. We 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:23.560 we still have lots of freedoms, we still have the 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:28.559 ability to use, use our institutions, we can vote, and 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.199 so I don't want to give people this feeling of hopelessness. 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:35.439 All I'm saying is that they are using authoritarian tactics 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:38.320 that have been tried in other places. They know what 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.920 they're doing, you know, they're using propaganda of a kind 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.640 that's familiar. It's not it's not coming from nowhere, and 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:48.640 that should be a warning light to everybody. 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:57.760 Will be right back we continue our conversation when and Applebam, Paula. 0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:02.040 And so it sounds like you're you're not necessarily surprised 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:05.239 at the extent and the way in which this administration 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:07.720 is governing. But I'm wondering if you're surprised around the 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:12.559 language that he's using at the global stage, right, because 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:15.240 there's something about the way in which Trump talks to 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:17.680 authoritarian figures that I'd love for you to to help 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:19.920 me understand. Right, I'm thinking of the way that he 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:24.360 talks to Chi of China and Budin of Russia obviously, 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:27.679 Orban and Hungary, even Kim jonguin in North Korea, even 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:32.359 the way that he supported me lay Barsonado, Bugelen and Salvador. 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:37.880 What type of impact does the sort of American president's 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:41.439 deference to these authoritaian figures have in the international stage? 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:43.160 And was that even surprising for you? 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:45.400 So, again, this is something he did do in his 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:47.400 first term, and actually it's something he's been doing all 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:52.840 of his life. So Trump instinctively admires people who don't 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.959 have to live with any kind of controls or checks 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:59.360 and balances. And I don't think this is so much 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:02.640 of a political instinct as a personal one. He admires 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.520 people with absolute power. You know, when he speaks of 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:08.520 the Chinese dictator, he speaks of him with admiration. You know, 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:10.640 look at all these millions of people who have to 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:14.319 do what he says. You know, I think he looks 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:17.640 at someone like Orbon, who was democratically elected within a 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.520 democracy and who broke a lot of rules in order 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.600 to stay in power indefinitely. He looks at him as someone, 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:25.600 you know, who really achieved something. 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:26.120 Because of that. 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:26.600 You know. 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:31.599 So he admires authoritarians instinctively, I think, And he admires 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:34.439 people who break rules and get away with it instinctively. 0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:37.760 So this and these are this is connected to his 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:39.839 personality and it's not it's not so much of a 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:44.120 political philosophy. This is this is these are These are 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:47.199 things he was born with, and he's attracted around himself 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:50.080 other people who feel the same way. And you you, 0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:56.600 this wasn't normal in any American administration before the the 0:13:57.360 --> 0:14:00.360 you know, certainly for the last hundred years, the people 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:04.080 who've been in power in the United States haven't openly 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.880 admired dictatorship, you know, or if they did, they kept 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:08.360 it somewhere in the back of their head, and they 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.199 didn't reveal it. It wasn't the language of American democracy 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:14.560 or of American political leadership. And so you are right 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:18.520 to pinpoint this as one of the most dramatic shifts. 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:22.720 And is it's a shift that continues to decrease our 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:24.600 credibility in the international community. 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.440 I assume, well, it decreases our ability to make to 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:32.400 have allies. So all of our old allies everywhere feel 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.480 suspicious of us, and we will be hesitant to work 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.520 with us. Over time, it will decrease our ability to 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.000 do things or to achieve things that we want, because 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:44.280 we won't find that people cooperate with us. Certainly were 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:46.520 you know, there were a lot of countries in the 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:48.760 world who cooperate with the United States on the basis 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:51.240 of an assumption of shared values, you know, okay, where 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.640 all democracies will work with you because we think that 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:56.880 what you're trying to do, even if we don't like 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.680 some specific aspects of your policy, we think you're promoting 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.480 to bork per se. That's I think that's going to 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:06.120 end pretty quickly. Maybe some future president could revive it, 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:08.680 but right now Trump is really doing a lot of 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:13.240 damage to those traditions and so and at the same time, 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:19.080 you know, he is also therefore doing damage to the 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:22.960 system of laws and rules and norms that have that 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:26.280 have they haven't ruled the world since nineteen forty five. 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:27.760 I mean, that's an unfair thing to say, but I 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:31.080 mean the language of the un Charter, for example, speaks 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:34.560 about how it's wrong for one nation to invade another, 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:38.440 to change borders by force. And there was an assumption 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:44.320 that big nations didn't just get to dominate small nations automatically. 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:46.560 That you know, that wasn't There was something wrong with that. 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:50.280 And Trump is undermining and reversing that language, and that 0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:55.840 will make it easier for future Russian invasions of Ukraine. 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.000 It could make it easier for she to invade Taiwan. 0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:04.400 I mean, they're once the taboo is gone, you know, 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:08.200 and I recognize in some cases it was only a taboo, 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:12.040 it was it was violated in practice. But once that's gone, 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:16.240 then why shouldn't big countries try to occupy smaller ones. 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:19.280 Why won't we have a return to imperialism and to 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:22.960 you know, great power conflicts of a kind that we 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.360 knew in the past uh. And I don't know whether 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:28.640 Trump is understands this or not. I think probably not, 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:31.640 although again I suspect some people run him do, But 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:34.880 he is he What he's doing is damaging a whole 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.600 system of alliances and rules and international law and multi 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:42.440 lateral institutions that will be pretty hard to ever put 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:43.000 back together. 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:47.040 Again, let me jump into Venezuela. You just mentioned that 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:50.040 a few moments ago. In your book Autobracy, Inc. You 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:55.120 write extensively about the warm relationship between octoretarian regimes and 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:58.120 how economic interests keep them together. But so let let 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:03.800 me concentrate on Venezuela, right the warm relationship between Venezuela 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:08.960 in Turkey, also the ties between Iran and Venezuela, and 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:13.120 how the gold all is flowing freely. But is there 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:16.560 anything that Turkey and Iran can do now to prevent 0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:19.920 the military conflict between the US and Venezuela. In other words, 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:24.360 has Trump changed absolutely everything, including these relationships? 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:27.400 No? I mean, actually, the more important relationships for Venezuela 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:31.400 right now are China, which has big investments there, Russia, 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:34.879 which has armed Venezuela in the past, and of course Cuba, 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:41.000 which supplies security advice to the Venezuelan regime. And I'm 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:43.960 told actual security guards to Maduro. 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:44.560 Personal bodyguards. 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:49.760 Yeah, to Maduro personally, So you know, and you know, 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.240 I don't have an insight into what's happening there right now, 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:55.720 but I would be surprised if some of those forces. 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:56.720 Aren't being activated. 0:17:57.200 --> 0:18:01.280 One of the reasons Maduro has not requished power already. 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.760 One of the reasons why despite having lost a legitimate 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:09.800 election and having facing an opposition that proved he lost. 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:14.320 I remember this is the Venezuelan opposition showed the teallypapers 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:17.119 from the polling booths showing that they had won the 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:19.480 election of Madua had lost. One of the things that 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:22.400 had given Madua the confidence to stay in power anyway 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:26.600 was his sense of foreign support. Were his allies in 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:32.160 the in the authoritarian world? You know, whether those allies 0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:34.960 will risk everything to come to his aid. You know, 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:38.320 if the US uses military force against Venezuela, I don't know. 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:42.600 I mean, Russia is in a bad position right now. 0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:44.919 It wasn't able to help its ally in Syria because 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:48.480 they're they're they're losing so many men and so much 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:53.080 equipment fighting in Ukraine. Iran has also suffered recently. You know, 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.760 maybe you know, maybe the United States is will be 0:18:56.800 --> 0:19:00.320 facing a Maduro who's weaker in you know, for those reasons. 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:04.200 But I mean, you know, certainly his allies haven't abandoned him. 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:07.440 I mean they are You can't count out the possibility 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:10.880 that they're they're there and that they're they're helping him 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:13.760 survive now, and that they'll they'll help him survive some 0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:15.200 kind of US military pressure. 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:17.359 Just a quick anecdote. 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:21.000 I remember interviewing Nicolasma Dura a few years ago in 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:24.040 Palacia Mela florist, and killing liked the interview, and at 0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:27.560 the end we were arrested and deported from Venezuela just 0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:30.240 for asking questions. But something is interesting, and what happen 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:33.760 is I came in with a couple of Cuban American 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:38.000 producers and they were telling me a corky tol usanas, 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:41.920 all the bodyguards are our Cubans, And that was so surprising. 0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:44.200 Even the New York Times just recently wrote an article 0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:49.320 about about that. So going back to Venezuela, nobody obviously 0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:51.359 knows exactly what's going to happen, But is there a 0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:52.520 likely scenario for you? 0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:53.560 And why? 0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:53.840 Why? 0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:57.280 Is the US doing that just to create maximum pressure, 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:01.520 or or really there's going to be surgical Operation trond 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:04.280 just to get Maduro out of Venezuela the same. 0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:05.840 Way they did with Noriega and Panama. 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:06.640 So I don't know. 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.280 I've heard that there are several scenarios still being considered, 0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:13.080 and actually I heard a month ago that they were 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:15.760 very close to choosing one of them, and they hadn't 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:19.359 chosen it yet, So you know, I can't tell you 0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:22.160 exactly what the scenario is. You know, the confusing question 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:25.199 for me is why exactly are we doing this. I 0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:28.359 am the first to agree that the Venezuelan regime is illegitimate, 0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:28.919 that it's a. 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:30.919 It's a. It's a. 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:35.160 It's dependent on the international narcotics trade. It's a bad 0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:38.560 actor in the region. It's produced, you know, more refugees, 0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:41.359 even in a country without war, than than Ukraine and 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:42.240 Gaza combined. 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:43.560 It's a. 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:44.199 You know, it's a. 0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:46.560 It's an illegitimate regime and I will not be sorry 0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:49.719 if it if it goes. What worries me, though, is 0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:53.840 the Trump administration's motives and what kind of example they're 0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:56.680 going to set by by doing this kind of operation 0:20:56.800 --> 0:20:59.760 one is I fear that some of the motives are domestic, 0:21:00.400 --> 0:21:03.840 to portray the president as a wartime president who's fighting 0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:07.840 brown skinned narco terrorists, which will then allow him to 0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:12.119 somehow amp up that same so called war inside the 0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:14.960 United States. I'm worried that there are people in the 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:17.680 administration who think that by doing this they'll get special 0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:21.040 access to oil reserves in Venezuela or else, that there 0:21:21.040 --> 0:21:24.160 are companies around the Trump administration who think they they 0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:28.040 will get that, and that that's another primary motivation. And 0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:32.160 then third thing that worries me is, you know, when 0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:36.120 China watches this, you know, or Russia, but let's talk 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:39.320 about China for the moment. You know, what they see 0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:42.600 is a kind of you know, dress rehearsal for what 0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:45.360 the invasion of Taiwan could look like. You know, troops 0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:47.960 on the you know, on the boats around the island, 0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:52.760 you know, putting pressure, creating some false. 0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:54.520