1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 2: Let's turn to the day jobless claims coming in at 3 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 2: a nice to thirteen against the estimate of two fifteen 4 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 2: and the previous number of two twelve. Lisa, jobless claims 5 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 2: and continuing claims speak to the same thing we've been 6 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 2: talking about for quite a while. Low higher, low fire, 7 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: low fire captured in jobless claims, initial claims being very low, 8 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: low higher captured in some very sticky high continuing claims. 9 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, and if you take a look at the initial 10 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,480 Speaker 3: claims four week moving average, it actually has gone lower 11 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 3: from two hundred and twenty thousand in a week before 12 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 3: to two hundred and fifteen thousand, essentially with this latest 13 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 3: data so highlighting that. But you're right, continuing claims you've 14 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 3: got to pay attention to, because it actually kicked upward 15 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,279 Speaker 3: to eighteen to one point eight six eight million, up 16 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 3: from one point eight two million. A question here about 17 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 3: whether that means that people aren't hiring, whether that's the issue, 18 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 3: whether this is just a staff foo tied to whether 19 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 3: or some other disrupt or, whether this really does highlight 20 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: that maybe initial job with claims don't really show the 21 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 3: pain that people experience on under the surface. 22 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 2: This leib Marca has been frozen for quantu wile and 23 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 2: this states of this morning speaks to the same thing. 24 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 2: It's the right kind of downside surprise on initial claims, 25 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 2: and it's the wrong kind of upside surprise on continuing claims. 26 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 2: My McKay standing by, he's having to look at the data, 27 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 2: and he's got a special guest for us as well. 28 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 4: Come morning, Mike, Good morning, John Well. Claims are not 29 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 4: the only number out this morning that matters. We're also 30 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 4: looking at import prices for the month of January on 31 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:33,759 Speaker 4: a month over a month basis, they're up two tenths 32 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 4: of eight percent after a decline in the prior month. 33 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 4: And we're also seeing ex petroleum up four tenths. That 34 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 4: puts kind of a lie to the idea that foreigners 35 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 4: are absorbing the tariffs because the prices should go down 36 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 4: if that's the case. Also, productivity up two point eight percent, 37 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 4: which sounds good, except it was up by five point 38 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 4: two percent in the third quarter, so not as great 39 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 4: a news as perhaps people had hope. Let's get a 40 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 4: read on how the economy is doing. Now. You mentioned 41 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 4: a special guest, and indeed we do have one, Tom Barkin, 42 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 4: president of the Richmond Fed. We're here at the Richmond 43 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 4: Fed with him. And I know you haven't an attence 44 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 4: to really look at these numbers, but in general, the 45 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 4: low fire, low higher economy and the tariff affected economy 46 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 4: seem to be about what they have been. 47 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: Well, it's always good to come on right after a 48 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: bunch of data comes out, but I wouldn't be as 49 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,399 Speaker 1: negative on the productivity as you just were. Two point 50 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,519 Speaker 1: eight percent on a last ten or twenty or thirty 51 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: year basis is a really good number, and I think 52 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: we are seeing companies invest in productivity and deliver it. 53 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: Some of that technology AI, but I think a lot 54 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: of it is you were caught short workers three years ago. 55 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 1: You invested in new processes, new staffing models, automation, and 56 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: people are seeing the results. 57 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 4: Today and that holds down inflation. 58 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 1: It does hold on inflation, and it allows people to 59 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: maintain margins at times when their input costs might be 60 00:02:59,240 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 1: coming up. 61 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 4: Well, input costs are probably going up for people who 62 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 4: use petroleum. So I want to start there with Obviously, 63 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 4: the IRN war just started, but what's your gut feel 64 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 4: about how that's going to impact prices and the economy. 65 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: Don't have any sense on how long it's going to 66 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: take or what the implications are going to be. Obviously, 67 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: you watch oil prices. While the US is no longer 68 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: in that importer, it's still the case that the price 69 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 1: at the pump matters a lot in terms of sentiment, 70 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,519 Speaker 1: in terms of crowding out other spending. And so I'm 71 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: just watching prices at the pump. They've jumped up over 72 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: the last week. You can see that when you drive around. 73 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: But of course no one knows whether this is going 74 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: to be short term or long term, and so we'll 75 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: just see where it goes. 76 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 4: Well, back in the nineteen seventies, we had the oil 77 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 4: price shock and we had gas lines and people were 78 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 4: miserable and having to pay all this money, and so 79 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 4: they've had eased into that that turned out to be 80 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 4: a mistake. Does this put on hold ideas for the 81 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 4: time being of continuing to cut rates. 82 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 1: Well, I think we'll go meeting by meeting and we'll 83 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: see what we see when we get there. Gas prices, obviously, 84 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: if they're up, that is inflationary. Textbook monetary policy would 85 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: be you look through a short term shock, but you 86 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: don't look through a long term shock, and I think 87 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: that's a lot of the assessment people are going to 88 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: have to make. 89 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 4: The Open Market Committee before the Iran War started. Basically, 90 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 4: the views seem to be that we're at peak tariffs 91 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 4: now and inflation will start to come down in the 92 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 4: latter half of the year. But you throw this into 93 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 4: the equation, where would you put yourself in terms of 94 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 4: thinking about the progression of inflation and when you might 95 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 4: have enough information to decide whether a cut is worthwhile 96 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 4: or not. 97 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:38,479 Speaker 1: Well, we'll have to see how it evolves if you 98 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: go back to the fall. The conversations I have with 99 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 1: businesses suggest to me that they believe their pricing power 100 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 1: is very limited. Consumers are exhausted by inflation affordability. People 101 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,360 Speaker 1: are pushing back, whether that be not purchasing or private label, 102 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: or trading down to lower price retailers, or repairing rather 103 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: than replacing, and so in the cut conversations you have, 104 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 1: you do have a sense that we're on the backside 105 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: of this inflationary period, we'll head back to normal, and 106 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 1: the numbers in the fall apps and the government shut down, 107 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 1: we're saying much the same thing I will say over 108 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: the last month, and with the PC numbers that we're 109 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: expecting next week, you've got a couple months of relatively 110 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: high inflation. That certainly puts pause to any conclusion that 111 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: we're done, you know, fighting this, But we'll see where 112 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 1: we go. 113 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 4: Well slicing the business leaders are telling you a little 114 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 4: more closely. They know consumers are price sensitive and they're 115 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 4: worried about that. But are they also in a situation 116 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 4: where they've had to absorb too much and if we 117 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 4: see more price increases of inputs, they're going to have 118 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 4: to raise prices. 119 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 1: Well, that's when we come back to productivity as being 120 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,160 Speaker 1: so key to this whole story. Because most every business 121 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: I talked to last April that got tariffs was going 122 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 1: to pass it on. It was just clear, and you know, 123 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: they needed to maintain margins that consumer was going to 124 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: have to take it. And when they experiment with that, 125 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 1: they got a lot of push back, and so prices 126 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: didn't increase the way that a lot of those folks expected. Now, 127 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: their margins have been very steady, and so corporate margins 128 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: are quite healthy. Earnings were up I think thirteen percent 129 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: fourth quarter a year every year, and that's because productivity 130 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 1: has allowed people to absorb these hits without you know, 131 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: having effect margins and having to pass it on fully 132 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: in prices. And when you start seeing good productivity numbers 133 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 1: over and over and over again, that gives you some 134 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: hope that can continue. 135 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 4: What are you hearing from businesses about the other side 136 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 4: of your mandate employment? Obviously we're seeing low, low fire continue. 137 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 3: Yeah. 138 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 1: I have to say the businesses I talk to when 139 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: they describe the labor market, they describe it as pretty open, 140 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 1: maybe even loose, availabilities, high turnovers low. I was with 141 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: a bunch of poultry processors in the Eastern Shore who 142 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: told me that even after losing workers you know, to 143 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: temporary protected status, they've been able to replace them relatively 144 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 1: relatively easily. And if you can replace poultry workers, I 145 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 1: think you've got a reasonably open job market. And of course, 146 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: going back to the fall, that's what we saw as 147 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 1: unemployment was ticking up. I will say the last couple 148 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: months of employment data has been reassuring. As you've seen 149 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate came down, jobless claims have stayed low, 150 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: and so you still hear a relatively loose labor market. 151 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: You still hear people not hiring but not firing, But 152 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: the numbers are even better than I think. 153 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 4: What you hear, Well, it sounds like you think at 154 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 4: this point the risks to inflation and to employment are 155 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 4: roughly balanced. 156 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, if you go back to the fall, I think 157 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: a lot was behind our moves was the sense that 158 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: the risk of the labor market were up while the 159 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: risk of inflation were down. The data that's come in 160 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: over the last couple months, what I think suggest it's 161 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: moved in the other direction. 162 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 4: Well, you mentioned that you know you're going to get 163 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 4: probably an elevated PCE reading coming up at this point. 164 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 4: Is monetary policy set at a place where it can 165 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 4: help you bring down inflation or is it even too tight? 166 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 4: Where is it on a scale? 167 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: Well, I expect we're still modestly restrictive and that should 168 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: help as we try to grind out the last mile here. 169 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: But again we'll have to see. I definitely take note 170 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: of the continued strength and demand, and so I don't 171 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: think we're highly restrictive. If you were highly restrictive, you'd 172 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: see a lot more impact on demand, which has stayed 173 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: very healthy. I was reflecting it was four years ago 174 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: that we first started increasing interest rates in March of 175 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 1: twenty two. And if you had predicted then that we 176 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: would have demand growth of the sort we've had over 177 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: the last four years, you would have been a severe outlier. 178 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 4: Let's talk about your new boss, who's coming in in 179 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 4: very I guess Kevin Worsh's nomination's finally gone up to 180 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 4: Capitol Hill. A lot of people think the FED chair 181 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 4: can walk in and just change interest rates, but they don't. 182 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:02,839 Speaker 4: You all have a vote and his basic powers in persuasion. 183 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 4: How do you think he'll do. How do you think 184 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 4: the dynamics play out when somebody new comes into the 185 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 4: building like that? 186 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: Well, it'll be a new experience for me too, since 187 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 1: Jay was in the building when I started eight years ago. 188 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: I mean, I like and respect Kevin, and I trust 189 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:20,679 Speaker 1: he'll do a good job, and I'm looking forward to 190 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:25,559 Speaker 1: working with him. You have a lot of smart, opinionated 191 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: people in the room, and so you'll want to work 192 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: with those folks. I think there's also a lot of 193 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: respect for the chair and what the chair does to 194 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,199 Speaker 1: take a lot of the visible noise that happens from 195 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: markets and the press and others, and so I think, well, 196 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: I look forward to working with him, we'll see where 197 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: we go. 198 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 4: He makes the case for a number of changes at 199 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 4: the FED, one of which would be a smaller balance sheet. 200 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 4: Where do you come down. 201 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: On it, I mean, instinctively, I like the idea of 202 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: the FED having a smaller footprint and financial markets. I think, 203 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: subject to still being able to operate monetary policy and 204 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: control rates well and subject to not having severe adverse 205 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: reactions in the markets. But it's instinctively it's an attractive idea. 206 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: May if we can find a way to make it 207 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: work in the context of the rest of what we're 208 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: trying to do. 209 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 4: He's also said he'd like to have a little bit 210 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 4: less conversation from FED officials and maybe more coordinated interactions 211 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 4: with the public. What do you think about that? Maybe 212 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 4: asking you not to speak. 213 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: As much, Well, that would give you some more time, 214 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 1: So I'd be happy with that. 215 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 2: Now. 216 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: What I try to do in my outreach is very, 217 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 1: very district oriented, and so I was in Martinsburg, West 218 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 1: Virginia yesterday. I was in DC. The day before, I 219 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: was in Hartford County, Maryland. Last Thursday, I was in 220 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: Northern Virginia. On Tuesday, I was at Baltimore on Wednesday, 221 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: and in each of those places, I'm actually not talking 222 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: to you. I'm talking to chambers of commerce and rotary 223 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:58,959 Speaker 1: clubs and people who are interested in what's happened in 224 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 1: the economy. And I think there's real value to being 225 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: in front of these folks and putting a face on 226 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: the FED. The design of the FED was a regional 227 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: design from the start, and I think part of it 228 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 1: was people wanted to trust and understand the people who 229 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 1: are making these important decisions, and also to feel listened to. 230 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: And I take a lot of pride in how much 231 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 1: interaction and engagement I have across my five states and 232 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: district of Columbia, and I hope to continue doing that. 233 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: But to me, it's not and you know this because 234 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: we've talked a lot before. I'm not trying to talk 235 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: about how many rate cuts I have in my SEP 236 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: for the next nine months. I'm trying to talk about 237 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: here so I see the economy and ask them how 238 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,439 Speaker 1: are you seeing the economy? I think I get valuable 239 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: insight that way. 240 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 4: Well, last question, would you like to see Jay Powell 241 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 4: stay on as a FED governor after his term as 242 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 4: chair is up? 243 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: I like Jay A. Ton I think he's done a 244 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:52,839 Speaker 1: spectacular job, and I want Jay to do absolutely the 245 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 1: best thing for Jay. 246 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 4: Okay, Tom Barkin, thank you very much. The President of 247 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 4: the Richmond Fed will send it back to you. 248 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 2: McKay, Thank you, sir. And that's a top tip for 249 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 2: anyone that gets aunced that by Mike mckaanny time soon. 250 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 2: Just repeat what Tom bak and just said. I want 251 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 2: what's best for Jack. 252 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 3: So not going to answer, but I think it was 253 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 3: a great answer. Frankly, honestly, what he said was actually 254 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 3: parsing through the vagaries that the FED is dealing with 255 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 3: quite well, talking about how he still sees modestly restrictive policy, 256 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 3: not exactly accommodative or neutral. And they did say that 257 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 3: companies were having trouble passing along pricing, but that the 258 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 3: recent inflationary data does give them pause. So sort of 259 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 3: the dual mandate kind of balanced right now. He seems 260 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 3: like he's kind of wanted to be waiting on the 261 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 3: sidelines for more on inflation. 262 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 2: On the energy shock, it keeps coming back to the 263 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 2: same thing, the calendar. It depends how long this goes 264 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 2: on for If it's a short term shock, the textbook 265 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 2: says his words, look through it. If it's longer, the 266 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 2: textbook says something else, how much longer is it going 267 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 2: to be? 268 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:50,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, and this we don't know, And that I think 269 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 3: is going to be a really important driver, and frankly, 270 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 3: not just for the feder Reserve, for the entire market 271 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 3: to reassess exactly what that impact is notable to me 272 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 3: that President Barkin, Richard Fed. President Barkin was talking about 273 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 3: how it really matters how much oil prices are for sentiment, 274 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 3: for consumer sentiment, and that that will be potentially a 275 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 3: disinflationary force in terms of their ability to keep on 276 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 3: going out and buying things. 277 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 2: Michael, making you catching up with the Richmond FED President 278 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 2: Tom bulk in there just moments ago.